NERL Research Abstract EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory GPRA Goal 4, Healthy Communities and Ecosystems FY 2003 Annual Performance Measure (APM) #17 Significant Research Findings Regional Vulnerability Assessment of Future Scenarios in the Mid-Atlantic Region Scientific Problem and Decision-makers need information on projected changes in land use, resource Policy Issues extraction, spread of non-indigenous species, pollution and pollutants, and climate in order to anticipate changes in regional vulnerability. Insights into these changes will result in better informed decision-making by allowing evaluation of risk management options with regard to possible cumulative and aggregate impacts from multiple stressors. Methods to assess anticipated changes are critical to timely, responsive, and proactive decision-making as well as more effective response measures. Research The Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program has focused initially on the Approach mid-Atlantic region and has forecast the major drivers of change through the year 2020 for the region. Changes in land use were projected using a combination of planned new roads and road improvements along with a model of future development (SLEUTH - Slope, Land use. Exclusion. Urban, Transportation, Hillshading; Clarke and Gaydos, 1997) that projects changes based on projected population changes from the Woods & Poole Complete Economic and Demographic Data Source (CEDDS) (2002). Projected changes in air pollution levels were made using scenarios developed by OAQPS to evaluate improvements under the Clear Skies initiatives and existing air regulations given projected regional growth. Changes in the spread of non-indigenous species were made for major problem species using a niche model (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction - GARP; Stockwell and Peters, 1999) to predict probability of invasion across the region. Alternative scenarios of exotic species spread were included under existing climate conditions as well as under scenarios of global climate change. Resource extractions were projected using existing areas permitted for future mining as well as an economic timber demand model. Changes in human population distributions were also included in order to evaluate impacts to human health and well being. Scenarios of change were evaluated simultaneously using spatial data integration methods developed and evaluated previously by the ReVA program. A suite of questions were addressed using these methods: • What are current and projected conditions of the region? • Where are the biggest threats posed by land use change? • What is greatest regional threat in future?/ what is most threatened resource? • Where are streams most vulnerable to non-point source pollution? ------- Where are there watersheds that might be expected to respond similarly to restoration? Where are forests most vulnerable to air deposition? Where are we most likely to see catastrophic change? Results and This is the first study of its kind that looks at projected cumulative impacts from Implications multiple drivers of change across a region 20 years into the future. These results can be used to identify probable future vulnerabilities of both human and ecological populations. By identifying areas that are vulnerable to change, resource managers will be able to better protect sensitive resources and anticipate the effectiveness of risk reduction activities given changes in the cumulative stresses that are likely to occur. Research Collaboration and Publications Boughton, D.A., Smith E.R. and O'Neill R.V. 1999. Regional vulnerability: a conceptual framework. Ecosystem Health. 5(4):312-322. Jones, K.B., Neale, A.C., Nash, M.S., Riitters, K.H., Wickham, J.D, O'Neill, R.V., Van Remortel, R.D. 2000. Landscape correlates of breeding bird richness across the United States Mid-Atlantic Region. J. Env. Monitoring and Assessment 63:159-174. Jones, K.B., Neale, A.C, Nash, M., Van Remortel, R.D., Wickham, J.D., Riitters, K.H.,and O'Neill, R.V. 2001. Predicting nutrient and sediment loadings to streams from landscape metrics: a multiple watershed study from the United States Mid-Atlantic Region. Landscape Ecology 16:301-312. Jones, K.B., Wade, T.G., Wickham, J.D., Riitters, K.H., and Edmonds, C.M. 1999. Characterizing forest fragmentation and vulnerability based on patch characteristics. Pp. 359-366, in Aguirre-Bravo, C., and Franco, C.R. (eds.), North American Science Symposium: Toward a Unified Framework for Inventorying and Monitoring Forest Ecosystem Resources U.S. Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12, Fort Collins, Colorado. 533 p. O'Neill, R.V., Riitters, K.H., Wickham, J.D., and Jones, K.B. 1999. Landscape pattern metrics and regional assessment. Ecosystem Health 4:225-233. E.R. 2000. An overview of EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 64:9-15. E.R., O'Neill, R.V., Wickham, J.D., and Jones, K.B. In press. EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program: Using Monitoring Data and Model Results to Target Actions, In: Wiersma, Bruce (ed.) Environmental Monitoring. CRC Lewis Press. E.R., Tran, L.T., and O'Neill, R.V.. 2003. Regional Vulnerability Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region: Evaluation and Results of Integration Methods. EPA/600/R-03/082, Oct. 2003. Tran, L. T., Knight, C.G., O'Neill, R.V., Smith, E.R., Riitters, K.H., and Wickham, J.D.. In Press. Fuzzy decision analysis for integrated environmental vulnerability assessment of the mid-Atlantic region. Environmental Management. Smith, Smith, Smith, ------- Tran, Liem T., C. Gregory Knight, Robert V. O'Neill, Elizabeth R. Smith, and Michael O'Connell. Accepted. Self-organizing maps for integrated environmental assessment of the mid-Atlantic region. Environmental Management. Wickham, J. D., Jones, K.B., Riitters, K.H., Wade, T.G., O'Neill, R.V. 1999. Transitions in forest fragmentation: Implications for restoration opportunities at regional scales. Landscape Ecology 14:137-145. Wickham, J. D., Jones, K.B., Riitters, K.H., O'Neill, R.V., Tankersley, R.D., Smith, E.R., Neale, A.C., Chaloud, D.J. 1999. An integrated environmental assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region. Environmental Management, 24(4)553-560. References: Clarke, K.C., and Gaydos, L. 1997. Long term urban growth projection using a cellular automaton model and GIS: Applications in San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore. International Journal of GIS, Special Issue of Population Modeling and Development. Stockwell, D. R. B., and D. P. Peters. 1999. The GARP modelling system: Problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction. International Journal of Geographic Information Systems 13:143-158. Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. 2002. Woods & Poole Complete Economic and Demographic Data Source (CEDDS), http://www.woodsandpoole.com, Washington, D.C. Future Research Results of this study and the capability to address other assessment questions associated with future scenarios will be incorporated into ReVA's web-based Environmental Decision Toolkit (EDT) and made available to decision-makers in the mid-Atlantic region. Alternative management scenarios that address these future changes are being developed collaboratively among ReVA scientists and clients at the regional, state and local levels and will be used in applied research endeavors to improve decision-making effectiveness under changing environmental conditions. A public version of the webtool will be available in late 2004. Similar efforts are being initiated in a second region (U.S. EPA, Region 4) and new and improved methods for synthesizing these data are being explored. Research is also underway to quantify uncertainty associated with these vulnerability assessments and to better communicate the risk associated with anticipated cumulative changes. Questions and inquiries regarding this research can be directed to: Elizabeth R. Smith, Ph.D. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, ------- National Exposure Research Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Landscape Characterization Branch 4930 Old Page Road, MD 243-05 Durham, NC 27703 Phone: 919-541-0620 FAX: 919-541-1138 e-mail: smith.betsv@epa.gov For general information regarding ReVA please see: http://www.epa.gov/reva/ ------- |