Jfei Pilot Study for Near Real-Time Aerosol Modeling ana Air Quality Characterization ian Hogrefe1, Winston Hao1, Kevin Civerolo1, Jia-Yeong Ku1, Gopal Sistla1, Jeff Young2, Gary Christian Hogrefe1, Winston Hao1, Kevin Civerolo1, Jia-Yeong Ku1, Gopal Sistla1, Jeff Young2 Walter2, Alice Gilliland2, and Kenneth Schere2 1BAQAR/DAR/NYSDEC, Albany, NY 2ASMD NOAA, In partnership with NERL/ORD/EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) Pilot Study Objectives Partner with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for technology transfer in the area of grid-based photochemical modeling Apply and evaluate the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) state- of-science photochemical modeling system on an ongoing basis with special emphasis on PM, 5 predictions Assess the potential usefulness of grid-based photochemical models to provide air quality forecasts across New York State For this pilot study, NYSDEC utilizes the same modeling tools and databases as the National Weather Service(NWS)/ERA national ETA/CMAQ air quality forecasting system with the exception of the choice of chemical boundary conditions. Data Transfer and Simulation Timeline Summer 2004 and Winter 2005 Location: National Weather Location: EPA AMD, National Environmental Scientific Computing Center (NESC2), RTP, NC Location: NY State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC), Albany, NY NYSDEC runs PREMAQ at EPA NESC2 to generate model-ready meteorology and emissions NYSDEC retrieves CMAQ- emissions and meteorology Linux cluster eady o their NYSDEC runs CMAQ for near-realtime 03 and PM simulations on Linux cluster. Postprocessing finishes by 05:30 EDST Research Mode: Run alternate CMAQ version from 5.30 to 9.30 ET Predicted vs. Observed Speciated PM,; Over New York State, July - September ZU04 ^PM2.5 (STN Method)^PM2.5 (FRM Method) { Elemental Carbon Observations (ng/m3) Observations (jig/m3) Sulfate Nitrate S f 0 J 4 • . », I, U "n, Observations (ng/m3) Observations (jtg/m3) Organic Carbon ^ Crustal/Soil „ H ^ - 1 * g g *3 . •3 , ¦3 £ a Ph a a a c ft-: < 2 c • P, ' M< ... ¦ Data points are color-coded: Upstate rural sites (red), upstate urban sites (green), NYC (blue) Best model performance for sulfate Large over- prediction of the primary PM2 5 species Service (XvYS) ^ i 1 WVS l-;p.\ 1*: 1 A (AIAQ 12km (), Forecasts j 13:00 i EPA stores emission input files at EPA NESC2 EPA retrieves Interpolated ETA Fields to EPA NESC2 18:00 Comparison of Pilot CMAQ P\l2 i Simulations with the NYSDEC Routine Air Quality Forecasting Program NYSDEC issues daily forecasts of same day and next day AQI for 0,/PM2, to the public for eight "air quality regions" in NYS These routine forecasts are based on measured concentrations, climatology, weather forecasts, and expert judgment CMSQ;PMls Simulations and NYSDEC "human" forecasts generally have a comparable skill level Example: PM2 5 forecasts, simulations, and observations for the Upper Hudson Region, August 14 - 31, 2004 PM2.5 NYS DEC-Forecasts, CMAQ Simulations, and Observations for the Upper Hudson Region Observations iQI Si I Values Based on 24-hr Average PM2 ; CMAQ imulations, NYSDEC Routine Forecasts, and Observations: August 25, 2004 CMAQ Predictions Max. CMAQ Predictions at Monitor Locations in Each Region 1Fg® For the upper right panel, CMAQ predictions are interpolated to the location of all monitors. Therefore, the location of the monitors in each "air quality region" determines the maximum CMAQ prediction for that region. Summary Daily near-realtime ETA/CMAQ simulations for O, and PM, 5 have been successfully performed by NYSDEC in partnership with NOAA and EPA for the summer of 2004 and winter of2005 The utilized IT infrastructure is able to handle daily file transfers, simulations, and archival When compared against speciated PM2 5 measurements, CMAQ performed best at simulating sulfate over New York State for the summer of 2004 The over-prediction of primary PM,, species over New York State during the summer of 2004 points to potential problems with the emission inventory Routine expert-judgment based N YSDEC forecasts and ETA/CMAQ near-realtime simulations ofPM25 show a comparable skill level over New York State for the summer of 2004. Observations (jig/m3) Observations (ng/m3) Observations (ng/m3) Observations (|ig/m3) Although this work was revie wed by EPA and NYSDEC and approvedfor publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy or the policies of NYSDEC. The research presented here was performed in-part under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. This work constitutes a contribution to the NOAA Air Quality Program. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approvedfor publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views. epascienceforumWh Collaborative Science for Environmental Solutions ------- |