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Pilot Study for Near Real-Time Aerosol Modeling
ana Air Quality Characterization

ian Hogrefe1, Winston Hao1, Kevin Civerolo1, Jia-Yeong Ku1, Gopal Sistla1, Jeff Young2, Gary

Christian Hogrefe1, Winston Hao1, Kevin Civerolo1, Jia-Yeong Ku1, Gopal Sistla1, Jeff Young2

Walter2, Alice Gilliland2, and Kenneth Schere2
1BAQAR/DAR/NYSDEC, Albany, NY 2ASMD NOAA, In partnership with NERL/ORD/EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC

New York State Department of Environmental Conservation
(NYSDEC) Pilot Study Objectives

Partner with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for
technology transfer in the area of grid-based photochemical modeling
Apply and evaluate the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) state-
of-science photochemical modeling system on an ongoing basis with special
emphasis on PM, 5 predictions

Assess the potential usefulness of grid-based photochemical models to
provide air quality forecasts across New York State
For this pilot study, NYSDEC utilizes the same modeling tools and
databases as the National Weather Service(NWS)/ERA national
ETA/CMAQ air quality forecasting system with the exception of the choice
of chemical boundary conditions.	

Data Transfer and Simulation Timeline
Summer 2004 and Winter 2005

Location: National Weather

Location: EPA AMD, National
Environmental Scientific Computing Center
(NESC2), RTP, NC

Location: NY State Department of
Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC),
Albany, NY

NYSDEC runs PREMAQ at EPA
NESC2 to generate model-ready
meteorology and emissions





NYSDEC retrieves CMAQ-
emissions and meteorology
Linux cluster

eady
o their

NYSDEC runs CMAQ for near-realtime 03 and PM simulations on Linux cluster.
Postprocessing finishes by 05:30 EDST

Research Mode: Run alternate CMAQ version from 5.30 to 9.30 ET

Predicted vs. Observed Speciated PM,;
Over New York State, July - September ZU04

^PM2.5 (STN Method)^PM2.5 (FRM Method) {

Elemental Carbon

Observations (ng/m3) Observations (jig/m3)

Sulfate

Nitrate

S f

0 J 4 • . », I, U "n,

Observations (ng/m3) Observations (jtg/m3)
Organic Carbon ^ Crustal/Soil

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Data points are
color-coded:
Upstate rural
sites (red),
upstate urban
sites (green),
NYC (blue)

Best model
performance
for sulfate

Large over-
prediction of
the primary
PM2 5 species

Service (XvYS) 	^			 i

1 WVS l-;p.\ 1*: 1 A (AIAQ 12km (), Forecasts j



13:00







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EPA stores emission input files
at EPA NESC2



EPA retrieves Interpolated
ETA Fields to EPA NESC2



18:00

Comparison of Pilot CMAQ P\l2 i Simulations with the
NYSDEC Routine Air Quality Forecasting Program

NYSDEC issues daily forecasts of same day
and next day AQI for 0,/PM2, to the public
for eight "air quality regions" in NYS	

These routine forecasts are based on
measured concentrations, climatology,
weather forecasts, and expert judgment

CMSQ;PMls

Simulations and
NYSDEC "human"
forecasts generally
have a comparable
skill level
Example: PM2 5
forecasts,
simulations, and
observations for the
Upper Hudson
Region, August 14 -
31, 2004

PM2.5 NYS DEC-Forecasts, CMAQ Simulations, and Observations for the
Upper Hudson Region

Observations

iQI
Si

I Values Based on 24-hr Average PM2 ; CMAQ
imulations, NYSDEC Routine Forecasts, and
Observations: August 25, 2004

CMAQ Predictions

Max. CMAQ Predictions
at Monitor Locations
in Each Region

1Fg®

For the upper right
panel, CMAQ
predictions are
interpolated to the
location of all
monitors. Therefore,
the location of the
monitors in each "air
quality region"
determines the
maximum CMAQ
prediction for that
region.

Summary

Daily near-realtime ETA/CMAQ simulations for O, and PM, 5 have
been successfully performed by NYSDEC in partnership with
NOAA and EPA for the summer of 2004 and winter of2005
The utilized IT infrastructure is able to handle daily file transfers,
simulations, and archival

When compared against speciated PM2 5 measurements, CMAQ
performed best at simulating sulfate over New York State for the
summer of 2004

The over-prediction of primary PM,, species over New York State
during the summer of 2004 points to potential problems with the
emission inventory

Routine expert-judgment based N YSDEC forecasts and
ETA/CMAQ near-realtime simulations ofPM25 show a comparable
skill level over New York State for the summer of 2004.

Observations (jig/m3) Observations (ng/m3) Observations (ng/m3) Observations (|ig/m3)

Although this work was revie wed by EPA and NYSDEC and approvedfor publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency
policy or the policies of NYSDEC. The research presented here was performed in-part under the Memorandum of Understanding
between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. This work constitutes a contribution to the
NOAA Air Quality Program. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approvedfor publication, it does not
necessarily reflect their policies or views.

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