EPA's Post-IRA 2022 Reference Case Documentation Supplement Supporting RIA Analysis of Proposed MATS RTR 1. Overview This supplement includes details on the modeling assumptions applied in EPA's analysis of the Proposed MATS RTR. The baseline for this analysis is EPA's Post-IRA 2022 Reference Case.1 In addition to the baseline, EPA analyzed two scenarios using IPM: a proposed option and a more stringent alternative. Each of these scenarios reflects mercury and filterable PM emissions limits that are lower than the allowable limits in the baseline. The sections below describe the modeling approach utilized to reflect the mercury and filterable PM limits in each of these two scenarios. 2. Mercury Standard In each of the scenarios, EPA modeled a mercury limit of 1.2 Ibs/TBtu for all lignite-fired EGUs. This limit is modeled endogenously and reflects the assumption that each of the lignite-fired EGUs replace standard powdered activated carbon (PAC) sorbent with halogenated premium PAC sorbent. The incremental variable cost of each applicable EGU is estimated based on information supplied by Sargent & Lundy,2 and the modeled emissions are reduced to reflect compliance with an emissions rate of 1.2 Ibs/TBtu. 3. Filterable PM Standards (Surrogate Standard for Non-Hg HAP metals) For the filterable PM standard, PM emissions controls and associated costs are modeled based on information available in the memorandum titled: "2023 Technology Review for the Coal- and Oil-Fired EGU Source Category" which is available in the docket. This memorandum summarizes the current filterable PM emissions rate for each existing EGU. The regulatory options analyzed are filterable PM emission standards for existing coal-fired EGUs of 0.010 Ib/MMBtu and 0.006 Ib/MMBtu, which represent the proposed option and the more stringent alternative, respectively. Based on the difference between the emissions rates detailed in the 2023 Technology Review memorandum and the regulatory option being analyzed, the EPA assumed various levels of ESP upgrades, upgrades to existing fabric filters, or new fabric filter installations in each of the modeled scenarios. These assumptions are implemented in the model by applying the cost of the assumed controls beginning in 2028 and reducing PM emission factors accordingly. The model outputs report the capital component of these investments as an FOM cost. Calculating the incremental cost between the baseline and the scenarios analyzed requires converting that upfront cost to a stream of capital using the financial assumptions documented in chapter 10 of the IPM documentation. Table 1 summarizes the cost and filterable PM emissions reduction associated with each control in the modeling. Table 2 presents the adjustments necessary to correctly interpret the total annual production cost table in the model output. The PM control improvements assumed for each unit in each of the two scenarios analyzed is detailed in Table 3. 1 Documentation for EPA's Power Sector Modeling Platform v6 Using the Integrated Planning Model Post-IRA IPM 2022 Reference Case is available at: https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/power-sector-modeling 2 Mercury Control Incremental Operating Cost Methodology, Sargent & Lundy (2023) 1 of 4 ------- Table 1. Cost and Performance Assumptions for Filterable PM Control Improvements PM Control Strategy Capital Cost Filterable PMio Reduction Filterable PM2.5 Reduction Minor ESP Upgrades $16.5/kW 7.5% 5% Typical ESP Upgrades $55/kW 15% 10% 40% 26.7% ESP Rebuild $88/kW (0.005lb/MMBtu floor) (0.005lb/MMBtu floor) Upgrade Existing FF Bags Unit-specific, approximately $15K - $500K annual O&M 50% (0.002 Ib/MMBtu floor) 33.3% (0.002 Ib/MMBtu floor) New Fabric Filter (6.0 A/C Ratio) Unit-specific, $150-360/kW 90% (0.002 Ib/MMBtu floor) 60% (0.002 Ib/MMBtu floor) Sources: PM Incremental Improvement Memo, Sargent & Lundy (2023); Analysis of PM emission control costs and capabilities, Staudt (2023); EPA Memo "2023 Technology Review for the Coal- and Oil-Fired EGU Source Category" (Docket ID. No: EPA-HQ-OAR-2018-0794); Particulate Control Cost Development Methodology, Sargent & Lundy (2017) Table 2. Adjustments to Model Output for Total Annual Production Cost [Million US2019$] Cost Component 2028 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Proposed Option Fixed O&M Adjustment -386.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital Adjustment 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 0 0 0 More Stringent Alternative Fixed O&M Adjustment -749.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital Adjustment 169.1 41.4 41.4 41.4 0 0 0 Note: Model output files are available in the docket. Incremental compliance cost is the difference between the baseline and the scenario analyzed, plus the adjustments reported in this table. 2 of 4 ------- Table 3. Unit-Level Control Assumptions for the Proposed Option and More Stringent Alternative NEEDS ID PLANT NAME UNIT ID STATE PROPOSED MORE STRINGENT OPTION ALTERNATIVE 10113BCFB1 John B Rich Memorial Power Station CFB1 Pennsylvania Bag Upgrade Bag Upgrade 10113BCFB2 John B Rich Memorial Power Station CFB2 Pennsylvania Bag Upgrade Bag Upgrade 10343_B_SG-101 Foster Wheeler Mt Carmel Cogen SG-101 Pennsylvania Bag Upgrade Bag Upgrade 1082B3 Walter Scott Jr Energy Center 3 Iowa Bag Upgrade Bag Upgrade 1893B4 Clay Boswell 4 Minnesota Bag Upgrade Bag Upgrade 2103B1 Labadie 1 Missouri ESP Rebuild New FF 2103B2 Labadie 2 Missouri ESP Rebuild New FF 2103B3 Labadie 3 Missouri ESP Rebuild New FF 2103B4 Labadie 4 Missouri ESP Rebuild New FF 3954B1 Mt Storm 1 West Virginia Minor ESP Upgrade New FF 3954B2 Mt Storm 2 West Virginia Minor ESP Upgrade New FF 3954B3 Mt Storm 3 West Virginia Typical ESP Upgrade New FF 50611B031 Westwood Generation LLC 031 Pennsylvania Bag Upgrade Bag Upgrade 6041B3 Fl L Spurlock 3 Kentucky Bag Upgrade Bag Upgrade 6076B3 Colstrip 3 Montana New FF New FF 6076B4 Colstrip 4 Montana New FF New FF 6146B1 Martin Lake 1 Texas ESP Rebuild New FF 6146B3 Martin Lake 3 Texas Typical ESP Upgrade New FF 6823 BW1 D B Wilson W1 Kentucky ESP Rebuild New FF 976B123 Marion 123 Illinois Bag Upgrade Bag Upgrade 10143BABB01 Colver Power Project ABB01 Pennsylvania N/A Bag Upgrade 1356_B_2 Ghent 2 Kentucky N/A Bag Upgrade 1356B3 Ghent 3 Kentucky N/A Bag Upgrade 136B2 Seminole (FL) 2 Florida N/A New FF 1393B6 R S Nelson 6 Louisiana N/A New FF 1733B1 Monroe (Ml) 1 Michigan N/A New FF 1733B2 Monroe (Ml) 2 Michigan N/A New FF 2364B1 Merrimack 1 New Hampshire N/A New FF 2364B2 Merrimack 2 New Hampshire N/A New FF 2817B1 Leland Olds 1 North Dakota N/A New FF 2823BB2 Milton R Young B2 North Dakota N/A New FF 4078B3 Weston 3 Wisconsin N/A Bag Upgrade 470 B3 Comanche (CO) 3 Colorado N/A Bag Upgrade 50974 BUNIT 1 Scrubgrass Generating Plant UNIT 1 Pennsylvania N/A Bag Upgrade 50974 BUNIT 2 Scrubgrass Generating Plant UNIT 2 Pennsylvania N/A Bag Upgrade 54634B1 St Nicholas Cogen Project 1 Pennsylvania N/A Bag Upgrade 56611BS01 Sandy Creek Energy Station SOI Texas N/A Bag Upgrade 60_B_1 Whelan Energy Center 1 Nebraska N/A New FF 6009B2 White Bluff 2 Arkansas N/A New FF 6018B2 East Bend 2 Kentucky N/A New FF 3 of 4 ------- NEEDS ID PLANT NAME UNIT ID STATE PROPOSED OPTION MORE STRINGENT ALTERNATIVE 6065B2 latan 2 Missouri N/A Bag Upgrade 6068B3 Jeffrey Energy Center 3 Kansas N/A New FF 6096B2 Nebraska City 2 Nebraska N/A Bag Upgrade 6113_B_3 Gibson 3 Indiana N/A New FF 6146B2 Martin Lake 2 Texas N/A New FF 6177BU1B Coronado U1B Arizona N/A New FF 6177BU2B Coronado U2B Arizona N/A New FF 6179_B_2 Fayette Power Project 2 Texas N/A New FF 6180B1 Oak Grove (TX) 1 Texas N/A Bag Upgrade 6183BSM-1 San Miguel SM-1 Texas N/A New FF 6204B2 Laramie River Station 2 Wyoming N/A New FF 628 B4 Crystal River 4 Florida N/A New FF 628 B5 Crystal River 5 Florida N/A New FF 645BBB04 Big Bend BB04 Florida N/A New FF 6469BB1 Antelope Valley B1 North Dakota N/A Bag Upgrade 6664B101 Louisa 101 Iowa N/A Bag Upgrade 6705B4 Warrick 4 Indiana N/A New FF 7030_B_U1 Major Oak Power U1 Texas N/A Bag Upgrade 7030BU2 Major Oak Power U2 Texas N/A Bag Upgrade 7790_B_1-1 Bonanza 1-1 Utah N/A Bag Upgrade 8042B2 Belews Creek 2 North Carolina N/A New FF 8066 BBW73 Jim Bridger BW73 Wyoming N/A New FF 8066 BBW74 Jim Bridger BW74 Wyoming N/A New FF 8069_B_2 Huntington 2 Utah N/A Bag Upgrade 8102B1 Gavin Power, LLC 1 Ohio N/A New FF 4 of 4 ------- |