Particulate Matter Emissions for eGRID2020 S>%-\ eGRID 1 > PM2.5 White Paper December 7, 2022 ------- Table of Contents Introduction 3 Methodology 4 Results 5 Table of Figures Figure 1. eGRID subregion map 6 Figure 2. eGRID Subregion-level 2020 generation, PM2 5 emissions, and PM2 5 emission rates 7 Table of Tables Table 1. eGRID Subregion-level 2020 generation, PM2 5 emissions, and PM2 5 output emission rates 8 2 ------- Introduction EPA's Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) is a comprehensive source of data on air pollution emissions and electricity generation for virtually all electric generating units in the United States. Currently, eGRID includes emissions data on carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), but does not include information on particulate matter (PM). PM pollution—principally fine particulate matter 2.5 microns in diameter or smaller (PM2 5)—can lead to negative health impacts, including asthma exacerbations, heart attacks, and premature mortality. For example, Lelieveld et al. (2015) estimated that in 2010, 55,000 premature deaths in the United States were attributable to two types of air pollution — PM2 5 and ozone.1 Additionally, EPA's retrospective analysis of the Clean Air Act found that approximately 85 percent of the public health benefits of air quality regulations are due to PM2 5 reductions, rather than ozone (EPA 201 la).2 PM2 5 can also lead to reduced visibility, known as haze, which negatively affects much of the country, including national parks. This white paper provides an overview of the methodology used to develop the draft PM2 5 emissions rates and the emissions rates for eGRID2020. eGRID uses CAMD's Power Sector Emissions Data reported to EPA's Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD)3 to determine the CO2, NOx, and SO2 emissions at many electric generating units. For electric generating units that do not report to CAMD, eGRID estimates emissions based on fuel use, as reported to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).4 Neither CAMD nor EIA collect data on PM2 5 emissions.5 For this reason, it is not possible to use PM data from either CAMD or EIA to estimate the PM2 5 emissions and PM2 5 emission rates from power plants. EPA's National Emissions Inventory (NEI) is a source of PM2 5 emissions data. The annual emissions of air pollutants, including PM2 5, from most electric generating units get reported to the NEI.6 While EPA has not previously used the NEI data for eGRID, EPA is proposing to use NEI data to determine PM2 5 emissions at electric generating units. The most recent data year for both eGRID and NEI data is 2020. This paper discusses EPA's proposed methods to determine PM2 5 emission rates for each power plant, including steps to estimate emissions for units that may not report to the NEI. The accompanying Excel data file, "eGRID2020 DRAFT PM Emissions.xlsx," lists the unit- and plant-level heat input, plant-level generation, and unit-, plant-, and eGRID subregion-level PM25 emissions and emission rates for 2018, 2019, and 2020. Note that PM can be emitted in two forms—as particles (filterable PM) or as a gas that later condenses into particles when it enters the atmosphere (condensable PM). The eGRID methodology is designed to 1 Lelieveld, J., J.S. Evans, M. Fnais, D. Giannadaki, and A. Pozzer. 2015. The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale. Nature 525: 367-371. 2 EPA. 201 la. The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act from 1990 to 2020. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air and Radiation. Final Report - Rev. A. April. Available: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015- 07/documents/fullreport_rev_a.pdf. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 3 These data are reported to EPA under chapter 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations part 75 (40 CFR part 75) for several Clean Air Act programs, including the Acid Rain Program and Cross-state Air Pollution Rule. 4 These data are reported to EIA through form EIA-923. 5 EIA collects some data on PM emission rates, but it does not specify whether the rates are for PM2.5 or PM10 (particulate matter 10 microns in diameter or smaller). 6 Electric generating units and other point sources of air pollution emissions do not report emissions directly to the NEI. Rather they report to state, local, or tribal agencies, which then report the data to the NEI. 3 ------- include both types of PM, also known as primary PM2.5.7 Methodology The most recent year in which both eGRID and NEI data are available is 2020.8 To estimate PM2 5 emissions and emission rates for 2020, unit-level PM2 5 emission rates (lb/MMBtu) were developed using the 2020 NEI PM2 5 mass data and the 2020 EIA heat input data. The 2020 unit-level PM2 5 emissions were summed to the plant-level, state-level, and eGRID subregion-level to estimate 2020 plant-level PM2 5 emissions and state-level and eGRID subregion-level PM2 5 output emission rates. The following methodology discusses how the 2020 unit-, plant-, and eGRID subregion-level PM2 5 emissions and emission rates were calculated. The NEI contains annual PM2 5 emissions data for electric generating units, but the first step in integrating NEI data is to match the electric generating units to the eGRID data. The NEI uses Emissions Inventory System (EIS) codes to identify facilities and units, while eGRID uses Office of Regulatory Information Systems Plant (ORISPL) codes to identify facilities and units. EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS), which compiles the NEI, has matched electric generating units between EIS identifiers used in the NEI and the ORISPL identifiers used in eGRID.9 The EIS and ORISPL systems do not always have a one-to-one relationship; in some cases, multiple EIS IDs are used to refer to a single unit in eGRID (or vice versa). In order to use the NEI data in eGRID, the NEI data are mapped to the appropriate ORISPL plant and unit ID. Multiple units in the NEI that are reported as matching to one eGRID unit are grouped and summed to determine the total emissions for each eGRID unit. For units that cannot be matched directly to the NEI, EPA estimated the PM2 5 emissions using a series of emissions factors. In general, the process of determining the PM2 5 emissions for each unit follows a four-step process: 1. Direct match. First the EPA matched operational combustion units with positive heat input directly between the 2020 NEI and 2020 eGRID. Units that could not be matched directly between the NEI and eGRID either do not report to the NEI as point sources or an adequate match between NEI and eGRID could not be determined. 2. Average emissions factors by fuel type, unit firing type, and prime mover. EPA developed average emissions factors by grouping the units from the NEI that can be matched to eGRID by fuel type (e.g., bituminous coal), unit firing type (e.g., wall-fired), and prime mover (e.g., steam turbine). The PM2 5 emissions and heat input, expressed as million British thermal units (MMBtu), for all units in each group were summed. The emissions factor was calculated by dividing the total emissions in each group by the total heat input in each group. This emissions factor was multiplied by the heat input reported by EIA for all units that could not be matched to a unit in the NEI, but which have the same fuel type, firing type, and prime mover. 3. Average emissions factors by fuel type and prime mover. For units that could not be matched directly between eGRID and the NEI or that could not be matched using the emissions factors developed under step 2, EPA next developed more general average emissions factors by grouping 7 In addition to primary PM2.5 emitted by electric generating units, secondary PM2.5 can form in the atmosphere based on reactions of gases, such as NOx, SO2, and ammonia. This proposed method only addresses primary PM2.5. 8 The National Emissions Inventory is compiled for all sources every three years, and the most recent release is for 2017 data. However, data on point sources, including electricity generating units, is collected annually, and the most recent data for the point source emissions is 2020. 9 This analysis uses the data from the 2016vl air emissions modeling platform (available at fattps://www.epa.gov/airemissions- modeling/201.6v 1.-platform) to identify PM2.5 emissions from power plants. 4 ------- the units from the NEI by fuel and prime mover. To capture more units, firing type was not included in this step because not all units have firing type data. 4. Emissions factors from AP-42. For the remaining units, EPA estimated the PM2 5 emissions using an emissions factor reported in EPA's AP-42.10 The emissions factors from AP-42 are specific to the unit's fuel, firing type, and prime mover. For some of these units, EPA was able to match the units to a PM control efficiency reported in the EIA-923. Therefore, for these units, the PM2 5 emissions estimated using the emissions factor were adjusted to account for the control efficiency. Since the NEI emissions included in step 1 and the average emissions factors developed in steps 2 and 3 are based on reported emissions to the NEI, the control efficiency is already accounted for in these emissions factors. The emissions in steps 1 through 3 therefore did not need to be further adjusted for any control efficiencies. There are some fuel types for which there are no emissions factors in AP-42 or another source. For these factors, an emissions factor from a similar fuel type was applied. For example, there is no emission factor for other gas (OG), so the emissions factor for natural gas (NG) was used. For some fuel types, including lignite coal, petroleum coke, and waste oil, the PM2 5 emissions factors depend on the ash content of the fuel. For the units combusting these fuels that could not be directly matched to the NEI, an ash content of the fuel was first estimated. EIA-923 reports ash content at the unit-level for each month. A weighted average ash content was calculated for each unit that uses lignite, petroleum coke, or waste oil, weighted by the amount of heat input for each unit in each month, which were used with equations from AP-42 to determine unit-specific emissions factors for those three fuel types. Results Figure 1 displays the 27 eGRID subregions for eGRID2020. The 2020 subregion-level annual net generation, PM2 5 emissions, and PM2 5 output emission rates are shown in Figure 2 and in Table 1. The 2018, 2019, and 2020 unit-, plant-, and subregion-level annual net generation, PM2 5 emissions, and PM2 5 output emission rates are included in the Excel data file "eGRID2020 DRAFT PM Emissions.xlsx." The 2020 subregion-level PM2 5 output emission rates range from 0.017 lbs/MWh in the NYUP subregion to 0.917 lbs/MWh in the HIMS subregion. The highest output emission rates are in the subregions in Alaska and Hawaii, which have a higher percentage of generation from oil and a lower percentage of generation from natural gas when compared to the subregions in the contiguous United States. These higher output emission rates are explained by the fact that oil has a high PM2 5 output emission rate compared to natural gas. 10 United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, AP-42, Fifth Edition, Volume I: Stationary Point and Area Sources 5 ------- USEPA, eGRID, January 2022 Crosshatchirg indicates thai an area falls within overlapping eGRID Sub-egiorS due to the prese-ce of mult pie electr c service providers. V sic Power Profiler to definitively determine the eGRID subregion associated v^th your i< electric service provider, http pa .gov/erergy/power- p rofi lei & RFC^ v ^ '^trijyLi i pprvA/ •jW NYCW SRMW yZ Figure 1. eGRID subregion map 6 ------- ___ 600,000,000 .n 5 500,000,000 c 400,000,000 o £ 300,000,000 (u $ 200,000,000 5 100,000,000 c c < 0 _ 11 _ — n l n „ fl r. 1 n n Q < I— u w U U "> DC DC — § O U U < Q_ > —] Q_ 00 LU S s ! ! s 2 ^ o_ dc cc cc ^ O O > dc 00 5 ° ^ ^ ^ 00 I— > ]> cc oc oc 00 l/) 00 00 80,000 70,000 c o 60,000 50,000 40,000 c o 30,000 20,000 10,000 o Q < 11 I— U 00 U U "> oc cc _ . I _ ..I I I < LiJ ^ 2 g o x ^ DC Q_ Q_ 00 Zi Q- ^ 5 2 y ^ ^ g * < Q_ DC DC DC o o > DC 00 5 ° £ ^ ^ 00 H- > 1 DC DC DC CC 00 00 00 00 1.0 0.9 -C 0.8 0.7 _Q tn 0.6 (D "to DC 0.5 C 0.4 O "to tn £ 0.3 LU 0.2 "i Q. 0.1 0.0 Q < n n < u n n PM2.5 Emission Rates n n n n n n fl n H H n n n n H n n n u 00 < LU £ I 2 g U > 3 > DC DC DC o Q_ > I— DC 00 00 00 Figure 2. eGRlD Snbregion-level 2020 generation, PM2.5 emissions, and PM2.5 emission rates 1 ------- Table 1. eGRlD Snbregion-level 2020 generation, PM2.5 emissions, andPM2.5 output emission rates Subregion Annual Generation (MWh) Annual PM2.5 Emissions (short tons) Annual PM2.5 Output Emission Rate (lbs/MWh) AKGD 4,659,917 583 0.2500 AKMS 1,496,130 589 0.7873 AZNM 165,394,893 4,029 0.0487 CAMX 196,129,978 2,778 0.0283 ERCT 414,911,396 8,743 0.0421 FRCC 241,403,268 8,073 0.0669 HIMS 2,450,535 1,123 0.9167 HIOA 6,618,705 1,768 0.5344 MROE 20,714,885 430 0.0416 MROW 227,120,021 5,106 0.0450 NEWE 96,795,891 2,237 0.0462 NWPP 286,004,986 5,403 0.0378 NYCW 39,727,442 1,224 0.0616 NY LI 10,559,287 658 0.1246 NYUP 84,654,342 713 0.0168 PRMS 18,215,878 812 0.0892 RFCE 283,765,353 5,741 0.0405 RFCM 85,325,787 3,212 0.0753 RFCW 496,410,171 16,449 0.0663 RMPA 64,065,081 838 0.0261 SPNO 70,017,393 1,243 0.0355 SPSO 152,288,973 3,389 0.0445 SRMV 159,992,962 3,940 0.0492 SRMW 108,641,153 3,798 0.0699 SRSO 246,150,586 4,128 0.0335 SRTV 211,540,764 5,227 0.0494 SRVC 326,493,675 7,328 0.0449 U.S. 4,021,549,452 99,562 0.0495 ------- |