AVERT Main Module Quick Start Guide
AVoided Emissions and geneRation Tool (AVERT) is a free tool with a simple user interface designed to meet
the needs of state air quality planners and other interested stakeholders. Non-experts can use AVERT to
evaluate county-level emissions displaced at electric power plants by energy efficiency (EE) and renewable
energy (RE) policies and programs.
Download Instructions
AVERT's Main Module requires Excel 2007 or newer to run in Windows. The Main Module can also be used in
Excel 2011 for Mac. To download AVERT's Main Module, go to www.epa.gov/avert and save the following
files to the same folder on a local computer or drive:
1. AVERT's Main Module workbook: "AVERT Main Module.xlsx".
2. The Regional Data File for the region under analysis.
Installation of AVERT's Statistical Module and AVERT's Future Year Scenario Template is not necessary to
use AVERT's Main Module to estimate displaced emissions for EE/RE programs modeled in a historic base
year. However, modeling displaced emissions with reference to user-created future years requires all three
AVERT modules. Refer to the AVERT User Manual for additional installation instructions.
Step-by-Step Instructions
To begin using AVERT's Main Module, open the AVERT Main Module.xlsx file.
Enable Macros
Before making any selections or beginning calculations, macros must be enabled on your computer.
To enable macros in Excel 2007 for Windows:
• Click the Microsoft Office Button , and then click "Excel Options."
• Click "Trust Center," click "Trust Center Settings," and then click "Macro Settings."
• Click on "Enable all Macros."
To enable macros in Excel 2010 or Excel 2013 for Windows:
• Click the "File" menu (Office Backstage), and then click "Options" in the left sidebar.
• Click "Trust Center" on the left, and then click the "Trust Center Settings" button in the main window.
• Click "Macro Settings" in the left sidebar, then choose the "Enable All Macros" option and hit OK.
To enable macros in Excel 2011 for Mac, select "Enable macros" in the dialog box that appears when opening
the file.
&EPA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
State Climate and Energy Program
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Begin Using AVERT
When launched in Excel, AVERT's Main Module opens to its "Welcome" page,
1. Personalize the welcome page with details about the user, the date of use, and the EE/RE program
for which displacements are to be estimated.
2. Click on the button labeled "Click here to begin" to move on to AVERT's first step.
Welcome to AVERT's Main Module
AVERT is an EPA tool that quantifies the emission impacts of energy efficiency and
renewable energy policies and programs within the continental United States. Please refer to
the AVERT user manual for details on step-by-step instructions, appropriate uses and
assumptions built into the tool.
NOTE
Please ensure macros are enabled on your computer.
AVERT requires Excel 2007 or newer to run.
AVERT v. 1.0
Developed by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc., January 2014
' Use the blue entry to describe each scenario and keep track of multiple versions of AVERT
Editor;
Date edited:
Edition name:
Edition description:
AVERT
<&EPA
QOY/'*wr +
Synapse
Economy*, lr»c
Click here to
begin
Click here to
restore default
Excel functionality,
Note: The tabs that drive the calculations for AVERT are hidden to enhance the usability and appearance of
the tool. For users that prefer full Excel functionality, there is a button at the lower right-hand side of the
welcome page that reads "Click here to restore default Excel functionality". Users may complete the steps
required to estimate displaced emissions regardless of whether full Excel functionality is visible.
mm
State Climate and Energy Program
2
SERA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
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Step 1: Import Regional Data File
AVERT regions represent relatively autonomous electricity production zones, and are based on electricity
market module regions. For more detailed information on the specific boundaries of each region, consult the
AVERT User Manual.
1. Select a region for analysis by either using the dropdown menu or by clicking the map. Selecting a
region loads region-specific data for wind and solar capacity factors.
2. If you have not already, click the link under the map to download the corresponding Regional Data
File from EPA's website.
3. Once you have downloaded your Regional Data File, in the box labeled "Enter filepath," double-click
the blue area to navigate to its location.
4. Click the button under "Load data" that reads, "Click here to load the Regional Data File." Clicking this
button loads hourly fossil load, unit information, and typical unit performance for generation and
emissions. This step may take several minutes to complete.
Step 1: Import Regional Data File
Select region
Select a region for analysis by using the
dropdown or by clicking the map.
If you haven't yet downloaded a Regional Data
File, click here.
Enter filepath
Double-click below to enter the location
of the Regional Data File.
Load data
Click here to load the
Regional Data File
AVERT
1. Regional
Data File
2. SetEERE
Profile
3. Run
Displacement
4. Display
Outputs
Next-*
-------
Once the Regional Data File has loaded, a pop-up box will appear. This pop-up confirms the region and data
year and indicates the number of reporting fossil units. The pop-up lists the states that are fully represented
in the selected region as well as those that are partially represented, as some states are divided between
multiple AVERT regions. For example, parts of Illinois are considered to be in the Upper Midwest region,
while other parts are in the Great Lakes / Mid-Atlantic Region. Consult Appendix G of the AVERT User Manual
for guidance on determining the impact of EE/RE programs in states that are split across multiple AVERT
regions.
Step 1: Import Regional Data File
Select region
Select a region for analysis by using the
dropdown or by clicking the map,
r Midwest
if you haven't yet downloaded a Regional Data
File, click here.
0
Enter filepath
Double-click below to
of the Regional Data
S:\PRODN\lnbox\ESII
ch matte and user
guide\MainModule\A\
Data Files (2012)VAVI
BaseEPA (Upper Mid
-a
Load data
Click here t<
Regional!
I
AVERT
Import complete.
You have loaded the 2012 Upper Midwest (WMW) Regional Data File. This region
contains 335 fossil units.
Generation from the following states is fully represented in this AVERT region:
- Iowa
- Minnesota
- North Dakota
- Nebraska
- South Dakota
Generation from the following states is only partially represented in this AVERT
region:
- Illinois (61%)
- Missouri (45%)
- Mississippi (1%)
- Montana (2%)
- Wisconsin (55%)
Appendix G of the User Manual describes a rule of thumb that users analyzing
partially represented states should consider for assessing the impact of EE/RE over
multiple AVERT regions. The Upper Midwest (WMW) region may include
generation from units in states with a representation too small to be considered
significant for this analysis.
Click the red "Next" button to continue.
&EPA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
Climate and Energy Program
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Step 2: Set Energy Efficiency (EE) and Renewable Energy (RE) Impacts
This page leads you through the process of creating a load impact profile depicting the load reductions
expected from an EE/RE program. It also allows you to estimate a load reduction from basic characteristics:
Reduce fossil-fuel generation by a percent in some or all hours
Reduce fossil-fuel generation by total GWh (flat)
Reduce each hour by a constant MW each hour
Renewable energy proxy
Combination of EE/RE programs including combining pre-set options with manual entry
Each option is described in more detail in the AVERT User Manual. If more than one option (including manual
entry) is chosen, the selected options will be combined into a portfolio of programs.
Upper Midwest, 2012
Step 2: Set Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Impacts
DIRECTIONS: Enter the EERE load for one or a group of EERE policies and programs.
To include the impacts of hourly data manually, click the green button on the right.
Each entry is additive and will create a portfolio of EE/RE impacts.
For further instructions consult Section A of the AVERT user manual.
Enter EE impacts based on the % reduction of regional fossil load
Reduce generation by a percent in some
Apply reduction to top X% hours:
Reduction % in top X% of hours:
And/or enter EE impacts distrib
jted evenly throq
ghout the year
Reduce generation by annual GWh:
OR
Reduce each hour by constant MW
0
0.0
5Wh
1W
And/or enter annual capacity o
RE resources
Wind Capacity:
Utility Solar PV Capacity:
Rooftop Solar PV Capacity:
Selected EERE Profile Portfolio:
The currently entered reduction profile equals 10.1
4.1% of regional fossil load.
2. Set EERE
Profile
Next ->
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Step 3: Run Displacement
This step calculates hourly displaced generation and emissions (SO?., NOx, CO2) for each fossil unit within the
selected region.
Run displacement by selecting the button entitled "Click here to calculate displaced generation and
emissions." Note that this is a processor-intensive step. When using an older computer, or when analyzing
regions with many fossil units, this step may take up to ten minutes.
A pop-up box that reads "Calculation complete" will appear once the calculations are complete.
Upper Midwest, 2012
AVERT
Step 3: Run Displacement
Click below to calculate displaced generation and emissions.
3. Run
Displacement
Next->
Back
Base EPA
SERA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
Climate and Energy Program
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Step 4: Display Outputs
The data generated in Step 3 are aggregated in two major groups of charts and tables in this step: "Summary
tables" and "Charts and figures", There are eight total display output options. Each output is described in
more detail in the AVERT User Manual.
Upper Midwest, 2012
Step 4: Display Outputs
Summary tables
Annual regional
displacement data
Annual displacement
data by county
Charts and figures
Displaced generation
and emissions map
Displacement data for
top ten peak days
Monthly displacement
data by county
Hourly displacements
by week
Monthly displacements byl
selected geography
Signal-to-noise
diagnostic
SMOKE text file generation
Enter a filepath, then click
the button to save
SMOKE text files.
NOTE
Please be patient.
This calculation may take
up to twenty minutes to
run on older machines.
Generate SMOKE
text files
AVERT
4. Display
Outputs
4- Back
BaseEPA
State Climate and Energy Program
7
SERA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
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Annual regional displacements
This table displays the total annual generation and emissions as reported for the region in the base year
("Original") and as calculated by AVERT's Main Module after the EE/RE reduction ("Post-EERE").
Upper Midwest, 2012 AVERT
Output: Annual Regional Displacements
Click here to return to Step 4: Display Outputs
Original
Post-EERE
Impacts
Generation (MWh)
245,694,500
235,514,500
- 10,180,000
Total Emissions
S02 (lbs)
956,871,300
921,132,200
- 35,739,100
NO, (lbs)
416,259,200
400,349,300
- 15,909,900
CO2 (tons)
246,098,700
236,856,400
- 9,242,300
Emission Rates
S02 (Ibs/MWh)
3.895
3,91 i
NO, (Ibs/MWh)
1.694
1.700
C02 (tons/MWh)
1.002
1.006
Annual displacement data by county
This table presents a summary of the displaced generation and emissions for each of the counties from each
of the states contained within the region, A line for each county containing an electric generating unit (EGU)
is displayed.
Upper Midwest, 2012
Output: Annual Displacement Data by County
c
Clicl^Ter^t^jeturr^^StecM^Display^Outputs
]
State
R
County £
Peak Gross
Generation, Post-
EERE (MW) 0
Annual Gross
Generation, Post-
EERE (MWh) [T]
Annual Displaced
Generation (MWIjV
Annual Displac
S02 (lbs)
•
IA
Allamakee
250
1,152,800
-91,800
-639,700
IA
Appanoose
17
2,700
-600
-5,300
•
IA
Audubon
125
39,100
-8,800
-
IA
Black Hawk
109
42,300
-8,900
-30,700
•
IA
Cerro Gordo
522
772,800
-154,400
-600
IA
Clay
30
1 1,000
-2,300
-21,000
•
IA
Clinton
143
583,900
-30,500
-195,700
IA
Des Moines
210
1,195,400
-58,200
-438,500
IA
Dubuque
42
91,300
-1,600
-500
•
IA
Louisa
770
5,304,300
-197,800
-642,500
IA
Marshall
57
32,500
-1,700
-200
IA
Muscatine
262
960,200
-79,200
-353,300
•
IA
Polk
481
343,100
-59,900
-2,100
For each county, annual output
statistics are given for:
• Peak Gross Generation Post-
EE/RE
Annual Gross Generation
Post-EE/RE
Capacity Factor
Annual Change in Generation
Annual Change in Heat Input,
S02, NOx, C02
Ozone Season Change in SO2,
NOx
Ozone Season, 10 Peak Days
Change in SO2, NOx
&EPA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
State Climate and Energy Program
-------
Monthly displacement data by county
This table shows a summary of the displaced generation and emissions for each of the counties from each of
the states contained within the region, broken out by month and with an annual total.
Upper Midwest, 2012 AVERT
Output: Monthly Displacement Data by County
Click here to return to Step 4: Display Outputs I Neg^t/ve numbers indicate displaced generation and emissions. ASresults are rounded to the nearest hundred.
A dash f—"') indicates a resuft greater than zero, but tower than the level of reportable significance
State
R
County
FT
Month
Displaced
Generation
1 (MWh) HI
Displaced NOx
(|bs> Fl!
Displaced S02
(lbs) PI
Displaced C02
(Tons)
IA
Allamakee
1
-9,800
-67,900
-500
-10,100
IA
Allamakee
2
-8,200
-56,500
200
-8,400
IA
Allamakee
3
-7,700
-53,500
-3,100
-8,000
IA
Allamakee
4
-7,000
-48,800
-5,500
-7,400
IA
Allamakee
5
-7,600
-53,300
-7,800
-8,200
IA
Allamakee
6
-5,900
-42,000
-4,700
-6,300
IA
Allamakee
7
-4,400
-32,200
-2,500
-4,700
IA
Allamakee
8
-5,700
-40,500
-4,000
-6,000
IA
Allamakee
9
-7,300
-51,000
-6,600
-7,800
IA
Allamakee
10
-8,900
-61,800
-2,300
-9,200
IA
Allamakee
1 1
-8,800
-60,300
-800
-9,000
IA
Allamakee
12
-10,400
-72,000
200
-10,700
IA
Allamakee
Annual
-91,800
-639,700
-37,300
-95,900
IA
Appanoose
1
-
-
-400
-
Displacement data for top ten peak days
This table displays a summary of the ten days in the region featuring the highest level of fossil fuel load.
Upper Midwest, 2012
Output: Displacement Data for Top Ten Peak Days
^^Clicj^ier^tojjetun^o^teg^^Di^la^^
Day Rank
Date
Total Fossil Generation
(MWh)
Expected Displaced
Generation (MWh)
Displaced Generation
(MWh)
Displaced NOx
(lbs)
Displaced SOj
(lbs)
Displaced C02
(Tons)
1
Jul 26
990,200
-32,800
-32,000
-56,500
-58.900
-23,300
2
Jul 27
966,700
-26,300
-26,300
-57,000
-42,500
-19,800
3
Jul 25
963,900
-35,800
-35,900
-69,600
-62,700
-27,100
4
Jul 14
963,400
-21,800
-21,800
-42,400
-36,800
-16,500
5
Aug 01
954,200
-16,500
-16,400
-35,900
-27,700
-12,800
6
Jul 06
953,600
-16,000
-16,000
-37,400
-26,700
-12,600
7
Jul 13
950,100
-17,000
-16,400
-37,800
-29,900
-13,100
8
Jul 07
928,900
-19,000
-19,100
-41,100
-29,600
-14,600
9
Jul 10
927,500
-18,400
-18,500
-42,700
-31,400
-14,400
10
Aug 12
923,200
-15,500
-15,500
-34,200
-21,500
-12,000
mm
State Climate and Energy Program
9
SERA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
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Displaced generation and emissions map
This dynamic map allows the user to view where emissions have been displaced within the selected region.
Users can view changes in generation, heat input, SO2, NOx, and CO2.
Upper Midwest, 2012 AVERT
Output: Displaced Generation and Emissions Map
Select variable to display: [Annual Change in CQ2 (tons) [^^__^^^F*efreshmai
Note: The diameter of each circle indicates the
magnitude of a unit's change in generation / emissions.
Circles are semi-transparent; darker areas occur in
regions with overlapping units. Negative changes are
indicated with blue circles; positive changes are indicated
with black-bordered white circles.
Annual Change in C02 (tons)
45° -
290,000 tons
mm
State Climate and Energy Program
10
SERA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
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Displacement data by month
Monthly output can be viewed over the entire region, or a specific state or county within the region. First
select region, state, or county in the top dropdown menu.
• If selecting a state, choose the state in the next dropdown menu,
• If selecting a county, choose both the state and the county in the next two dropdown menus.
Upper Midwest, 2012 AVERT
Output: Monthly Displacements by Selected Geography
Monthly Emission Changes, Upper Midwest (IA)
_S -200,000
O
o
z
-400.000
-600,000
-800,000
-1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
|| || | i M i m
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
o
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0 I— —i———I— —i— —I— —i———I— —i— —I— —i— —I— —i— —I
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
-200,000
mm
State Climate and Energy Program
11
SERA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
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Hourly displacements by week
This option includes two figures. The first displays a dynamic representation of hourly displacement from
each EGU in a region. Individual plants are stacked as gradated bar plots.
Change in Generation (MW) in Week of 8/1
Negative numbers indicate displaced
generation and emissions.
Total Change in
Generation (MW)
Total fossil-fuel load,
pre-EERE
n
High capacity factor units
Low capacity factor units
The second figure shows the same week-long load impact profile, but presents the displaced load in
reference to the total fossil-fuei load to illustrate the degree of change represented by the EE/RE program
relative to the baseline.
Fossil-fuel load, pre- and post-EERE, in Week of 8/1
50,000
45,000
£
z
40,000
T>
35,000
o
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
D
I
10,000
5,000
Total fossil-fuel load,
pre-EERE
Total fossil-fuel load,
post-EERE
Load displaced
mm
State Climate and Energy Program
12
SERA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
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Signal-to-noise diagnostic
This chart is a scatterplot of every hour of the year, showing calculated total generation reduction in each
hour (y-axis) against the user-input EE/RE load reduction in each hour (x-axis).
Ideally, AVERT perfectly matches unit generation reductions to the amount of EE/RE load reduction
requested by the user. The signal-to-noise diagnostic chart shows where that assumption holds, where it
does not hold, and to what extent.
Upper Midwest, 2012 AVERT
Output: Signal-to-noise diagnostic
Reduction in Total Unit Generation Relative to EERE Load Reduction
(MW) for All Hours, RJ=0.99
Expected EERE Load Reduction (MW)
mis
State Climate and Energy Program
13
SERA
epa.gov/statelocalclimate
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