Greenhouse
Gas Mitigation
Options For
Washington State
Prepared for: Environmental Protection Agency
Prepared By: Nicolas Garcia
This report can be made available in another
format for people with disabilities. Please call
(360) 956-2068. TDD users call (360) 956-2218.
April 1996
WSEO #96-28
Printed on recycled paper
Washington State Energy Office
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PO Box 43165
Olympia, WA 98504-3165
WS^O
Energy Office
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Global Warming Action Plan
Acknowledgments
The author wishes to thank the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy, Planning and
Evaluation for their financial contribution to this effort. Special thanks go to Katherine Sibold,
the Director of State Outreach Programs, for her help and patience.
The author wishes to thank all the staff of the Washington State Energy Office for their help and
insights regarding ways to improve energy efficiency. Thanks also go to those who reviewed
early drafts of this report, especially Jim Kerstetter for his scientific insights and Patti Lowe for
her persistence and support for this project. Finally, thanks to Sarah Beckham for the final
preparation of the report.
Disclaimer
The report was prepared by the Washington State Energy Office (WSEO) as an account of work
sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency. Neither the Environmental Protection
Agency, the State of Washington, the Washington State Energy Office, nor any of their
employees, nor their contractors, subcontractors, nor their employees, make any warranty,
express or implied, or assume any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or
usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed within this report.
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Global Warming Action Plan
ii
.. .people can not imagine geologic time. Human life is lived on another time scale entirely. An
apple turns brown in a few minutes. Silverware turns black in a few days. A compost heap
decays in a season. A child grows up in a decade. None of these everyday experiences prepares
people to be able to imagine the meaning of eighty million years...
—Michael Crichton, Jurassic Park
...Does a climate exist? That is, does the earth's weather have a long term average? Most
meteorologists...took the answer for granted. Surely any measurable behavior, no matter how it
fluctuates, must have an average. Yet on reflection, it is far from obvious. As [Edward] Lorenz
pointed out, the average weather for the last 12,000 years has been notably different than the
average for the previous 12,000, when most of North America was covered by ice. Was there
one climate that changed to another for some physical reason? Or is there an even longer-term
climate within which those periods were just fluctuations? Or is it possible that a system like the
weather may never converge to an average?
—James Gleick, CHAOS Making a New Science
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Author's Note
Writing about global warming is a difficult task for many reasons. First, the science is rapidly
evolving and with it our understanding of the world's climate system. During the writing of this
report, it seemed that every few days new estimates would emerge on temperature changes,
storm intensities, spatial ranges of diseases, or changes in agriculture yields and forestry
production. In this situation, one difficulty lies in the decision to stop researching and start
writing. Certainly, some aspects of this report were out of date even before it was completed.
A second difficulty lies in the enormous scope of the science. Global climate change could
potentially affect virtually all aspects of human society and the environment. As such, a vast and
growing climate change library covers everything from changes in water resources to the
prevalence of extreme weather events to the comparative advantage of various species of
subterranean biota. For the most part, information included in the report came from peer
reviewed articles, government reports and books published after 1990. I reviewed several
hundred potential information sources — more than 100 of which made their way into the report
as references. Nevertheless, this number constitutes only a small proportion of the information
available on climate change. Inevitably, reports containing important information on climate
change were overlooked.
A final difficulty is the often conflicting conclusions of scientists regarding the consequences of
climate change. For example, Rosenzweig reports optimistic prospects for agriculture )at least in
the developed world) under global climate change while Bazzaz appears rather less sanguine.
Such conflicting reports allow for many different assessments regarding the consequences of
climate change. My reading of the scientific record could not support a conclusion that suggests
that climate change poses a substantial threat to Washington state over the next 80 to 100 years.
Indeed, to my mind, the consequences appear significant but relatively small in magnitude.
However, other interpretations of the record are equally valid as are other conclusions regarding
the threat to this State posed by climate change.
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iv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
President Clinton, in 1993, established a goal for the United States to return emissions of
greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. One effort established to help meet this goal
was a three part Environmental Protection Agency state grant program. Washington State
completed part one of this program with the release of the 1990 greenhouse gas emissions
inventory and 2010 projected inventory.1 This document completes part two by detailing
alternative greenhouse gas mitigation options. In part three of the program EPA, working in
partnership with the States, may help fund innovative greenhouse gas reduction strategies.
The greenhouse gas control options analyzed in this report have a wide range of greenhouse gas
reductions, costs, and implementation requirements. In order to select and implement a prudent
mix of control strategies, policy makers need to have some notion of the potential change in
climate, the consequences of that change and the uncertainties contained therein. By
understanding the risks of climate change, policy makers can better balance the use of scarce
public resources for concerns that are immediate and present against those that affect future
generations. Therefore, prior to analyzing alternative greenhouse gas control measures, this
report briefly describes the phenomenon and uncertainties of global climate change, and then
projects the likely consequences for Washington state.2
Global climate change poses daunting public policy problems. According to some the
consequences will be nothing short of apocalyptic: world wide famine, epidemics, massive
flooding, and more violent storms. To others, the consequences are minimal and perhaps even
beneficial in specific areas like agriculture. The divergence of opinions reveals the limitations in
our understanding of the global environment and climate system. Scientists agree that continued
consumption of fossil fuels will elevate greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. Most also
agree that higher greenhouse gas concentrations will raise average global temperatures—though
they debate its magnitude and timing. This agreement breaks down when predicting secondary
effects like precipitation, soil moisture, storm severity and flooding. A limited understanding
about how flora and fauna may respond to climate change further compounds the uncertainty.
Despite these uncertainties, policy makers need to know the potential threats and uncertainties
posed by climate change if they are to develop well reasoned policy responses.
Based on work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this report assumes that
doubling pre-industrial levels of atmosphere greenhouse gases (somewhere between the years
2060 and 2090) will raise temperatures in Washington by 2°C (about 4°F) and will not change
average precipitation levels. This report analyzes the Human Health, Agriculture, Forestry,
Fisheries, Power Production, Sea-Level Rise and Economic effects of such changes. With the
exception of sea-level rise, the consequences of the presumed climate changes appear relatively
1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory For Washington State, 1990, Washington State Energy Office, 1994
(WSEO #93-260) and Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory For Washington State in 2010, Washington
State Energy Office, 1994 (WSEO #94-193).
^ This report acknowledges that by its very nature global warming is a world issue. However, the contract with
EPA was to evaluate mitigation measures available in Washington State. (So, for example, expenditures by
Washington to reduce greenhouse gases in other parts of the world were not considered.) Therefore, it seemed
reasonable to contemplate what our mitigation efforts would protect Washingtonians against. The effects of climate
change in other parts of the world could be more or less severe than projected for Washington. This approach
reveals who—Washington residents or others—benefits from our mitigation efforts.
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Global Warming Action Plan
v
mild in Washington. However, one important limitation of this report is that each area (e.g.,
human health) was analyzed independently. Interactions between areas could result in outcomes
significantly different than predicted here. Moreover, atmospheric greenhouse gas levels will
grow beyond twice pre-industrial levels. Thus, the consequences for Washington could be
greater further in the future.
It is important to remember that our understanding of the global climate system is limited. Thus,
the projected consequences of climate change are speculative and will change as we learn more
about the global climate system. For example, estimates of sea-level rise have gone from 10
Projected Consequences of Climate Change
Health Effects: A 2°C temperature change will not likely have severe adverse affects on the health of
Washington citizens (the temperature extremes would still be well below those presently occurring in
other areas of the country). Further, a 2°C temperature change is not likely to bring important
tropical diseases to Washington.
Agricultural: Agriculture may actually benefit from the climate change. The primary greenhouse gas.
carbon dioxide, is an essential plant nutrient. A 2°C temperature rise may expand the growing season
and is well within the tolerance limits of most cash crops. EPA reports that agriculture acreage in the
Pacific Northwest could increase 5 to 17 percent as a result of climate change. However, irrigation
requirements may also increase.
Forestry: Climate change may alter the comparative advantages between tree species and thus change the
climax species of an area. Forests may expand into some currently inhospitable environs and
withdraw from others. However, since trees arc long-lived, these shifts may not be noticeable for
many years. The carbon dioxide fertilization effect may somewhat mollify the effects of climate
change. The risk of forest fires will also increase with climate change. Warmer temperatures would
dry out forests, lengthen the fire season and increase both the area burnt and number of forest fires.
Fish: Climate change will likely affect fish resources through changing rainfall/snow melt patterns. One
study of 60 Pacific northwest salmonoid subspecies found climate change to adversely affect 14
species, to not affect 24 species and to benefit 21 species. However, given the critical condition of
many fish species climate change may ultimately introduce more stress on fish stocks already
depleted due to other environmental factors.
Energy: Energy production in the Pacific Northwest is vulnerable to climate change due to our heavy
reliance on hydroelectric power. With constant precipitation and a lower snow pack volume (from
warmer temperatures) winter and spring river flow will increase. Earlier spring runoff may ease
supply constraints during the period of highest demand. Conversely, lower summer and fall flow
would degrade water supply reliability. Warmer temperatures will lessen wintertime demand for
heating but increase summertime cooling demand.
Sea-Level Rise: Climate change is estimated to raise sea-levels by about 1.3 feet through 2100. Motions
of the earth's crust complicate the effect of sea-level rise. Washington's coast is currently rising
relative to the ocean. Uplift should roughly equal the projected sea-level rise along northern and
southern coasts. Over the mid-coastal area, the sea level may rise a foot or more. Along inland
waters the sea level may rise 1 foot in the northern Puget Sound and 1.5 feet in south Puget Sound.
Economy: The effects of climate change on Washington's economy do not appear significant. The
economic sectors that arc potentially most affected by climate change—agriculture, forestry and
fisheries—account for about 8 percent of the state's economy. And agriculture and forestry may
actually do better under climate change. Moreover, continued expansion of the service sector should
lower the portion of the economy at risk to climate change. However, exports arc an important part
of Washington's economy. Climate change could reduce the foreign customers ability to purchase
Washington state goods and services.
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vi
meters to less than one meter. In addition, surprises—good and bad effects beyond our ability to
predict with current knowledge—are possible (or even probable) as climate, environments, and
species interact and adapt in unexpected ways. Beyond these considerations are uncertainties
about the rate carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere. Advances in combustion turbine
technology, for example, have lowered carbon dioxide emissions per unit of electricity produced
by 70 percent relative to traditional coal fired power plants. The Administration also is
sponsoring a research effort to triple the fuel efficiency of motor vehicles. The success and
application of such efficiency technologies (or lack thereof) will have a huge effect on the
magnitude and timing of climate change. Thus, the reported climate change projections and the
consequences thereof may reasonably describe what will occur or may be completely wrong.
Uncertainties about the consequences of climate change create a dilemma. Years to decades will
pass before uncertainties about climate change are resolved. Waiting risks irreversible damages
while immediate action risks large expenditures to mitigate inconsequential or even beneficial
changes. There are several ways policy makers might approach this balancing effort. One is to
consider greenhouse gas mitigation measures as insurance against uncertain risks. Following
this logic results in an active greenhouse gas control program to reduce our risks until knowledge
about climate change improves. Another approach is to invest heavily into research and
development in technologies with the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A third
approach is to implement only those activities that make sense for reasons beyond climate
change—a "no regrets" approach. Determining the appropriate government response to climate
change requires the skills of both scientists and policy makers; scientists to describe potential
consequences and policy analysis to balance the potential threats and opportunities of climate
change against other social needs and desires.
For Washington to stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions—President Clinton's goal—requires an
18 million ton reduction from "business as usual" in the year 2010. The transportation category
emits the most carbon dioxide and therefore is the largest emission reduction target. Industrial
and utilities are the next two emission categories followed by the residential and commercial
sectors. No single activity in Washington dominates carbon dioxide emissions, and therefore, no
single measure can stabilize this state's greenhouse gases. Significant reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions will require a broad range of mitigation programs.
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Table 1 lists the mitigation strategies evaluated in this report that cost less than $100 per ton of
greenhouse gas controlled. The reduction and costs estimates required many assumptions about
society in the year 2010. Small errors compounded over time (e.g., fuel consumption patterns),
or large errors in technology assessment (e.g., the introduction of residential fuel cells) could
easily upset these figures. Nonetheless, the estimates are reasonable given what we know today.
About three-fourths of the carbon dioxide reductions necessary to achieve the President's goal
have low costs. "No regrets" options could reduce emissions by 8 million tons. They include
upgrades to building codes and efforts to alter building operating practices. Measures costing
less than $5 per ton reduce emissions another 5.6 million tons, principally through afforestation.
Further reductions are more expensive. A $1.00 per gallon gasoline tax, for example, could
eliminate 8.5 million tons of carbon dioxide at a cost of about $15 per ton.
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viii
Table 1
Alternative Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies*
Strategy
Potential Annual Emission
Reductions in 2010 (Tons)
Cost per Ton
Reduced
f
Residential Sector
EXISTING HOME RETROFITS
Direct Use of Natural Gas in Buildings
R-19 Attic for Electrically Heated Homes
R-11 Wall for Homes
R-19 Floor for N.G. Heated Homes
R-30 Attic for N.G. Heated Homes
Low Flow Shower Head
Hot Water Tank Upgrade (N.G.)
R-11 Duct Insulation For N.G. Homes
Caulking Joints in N.G. Homes
Install Fluorescent Lighting in Buildings
NEW HOME BUILDING PRACTICES
Class 35 Windows Code
R-30 Floor Code for N.G. Homes (Zone 1)
R-38 Attic Code for N.G. Homes (Zone 1)
R-21 Walls Code
Commercial Sector
Efficient Fluorescent Lighting Retrofits
More Efficient Food Refrigeration
A variety of Efficiency Improvements for
Public Sector Commercial Buildings
Industrial Sector
Petroleum Refining Process Improvements
Pulp and Paper Process Improvements
Aluminum Process Improvements
Transportation Sector
Tire Pressure Check
More Efficient Airplane Engines
FeeBate ($100/MPG off baseline)
Gas Tax ($1.00/gallon)
Vehicle Mileage Tax ($0.04/mile)
Parking Restrictions
Diesel to Electric Train Conversion
Truck to Train Mode Shift
Generating Resources
Chemical Boiler Cogeneration
Landfill Gas Combustion
Animal Manure
Nuclear Power (extend WNP-2)
Wood Waste Combustion
Agricultural Waste Combustion
Wnd
Carbon Sequestration
Afforestation
250,000
209,000
113,000
105,000
15,000
7,000
4,000
11,000
5,000
460,000
106,000
17,000
6,000
25,000
5,400,000
550,000
438,000
134,000
1,049,000
1,184,000
35,000
800,000
4,400,000
8,500,000
8,200,000
?
220,000
1,680,000
410,000
494,000
110,000
2,960,000
150,000
282,000
450,000
5,500,000
+
+
+
+
+
$3
$16
$33
?
$59
$74
$78
+
+
+
?
?
?
~$0
$15
$45
$?
$?
$?
~$0
$2
$25
$80
$93
?
$4
The cost per ton based on carbon dioxide equivalent reductions. (See Global Warming Index sidebar.)
A "+" indicates a net benefit—the efficiency measure's costs are completely offset by reduced energy expenditures.
A "?" denotes uncertain costs. The reduction estimates are not additive (e.g., interactions between strategies may result in
an over estimate of the actual result if added together). Moreover, the number of alternatives reviewed prevented detailed
review of individual programs. Therefore, the numbers presented above are preliminary. See the body of the report for a
more detailed explanation of each mitigation strategy, and its associated emission reduction and cost.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY iv
INTRODUCTION 4
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT 5
THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING IN WASHINGTON STATE 8
Human Health and Comfort 11
Agriculture and Vegetation 13
Forest Systems 14
Fish and the Fishery Resource 13
Biodiversity 14
Energy Demand and Production 15
Sea-Level Rise 16
Storms 17
Economic Effects 17
Summary 18
EMISSIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING GASES IN WASHINGTON STATE 19
WASHINGTON STATE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTION
STRATEGIES 21
The Residential Sector 23
SPACE UK AT IN NEW CONSTRUCTION 23
SPACE HEAT IN EXISTING HOMES 24
EXISTING ELECTRICALLY HEATED HOMES 25
EXISTING NATURAL GAS HEATED HOMES 25
NEW CONSUMER APPLIANCES 26
DIRECT USE OF NATURAL GAS 26
RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING 27
GEOTHERMAL HEAT PUMPS 28
The Commercial Sector 28
PUBLIC SECTOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS 31
The Industrial Sector 32
INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCIES IDENTIFIED BY THE NORTHWEST
POWER PLANNING COUNCIL 32
PETROLEUM REFINING 33
PULP AND PAPER 34
ALUMINUM PRODUCTION 34
PORTLAND CEMENT PRODUCTION AND GLASS PRODUCTION 35
The Transportation Sector 37
GASOLINE TAX 38
FEEBATES 39
SPEED LIMIT ENFORCEMENT 40
VEHICLE INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS 40
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REMOTE SENSING 41
VEHICLE FLEETS ALTERNATIVE FUELS MANDATES 42
THE CALIFORNIA LOW EMISSION VEHICLE PROGRAM 43
A VEHICLE MILEAGE TAX 45
INCREASED PARKING FEES 45
TRIP REDUCTION ORDINANCE 46
RIDESHARE 47
TELECOMMUTING 47
MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM 48
TRANSPORTATION MULTIMODAL COORDINATION 48
LAND USE 49
ELECTRIC TRAINS 51
TRUCK TO TRAIN MODE SHUTS 51
WSDOT GRAIN TRAIN 51
HIGH-EFFICIENCY COMMERCIAL AIRPLANE ENGINES 52
The Electricity Generation Sector 53
WIND POWER 53
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS 55
NUCLEAR POWERED ELECTRICITY GENERATION 55
BIOMASS FUELED ELECTRICITY GENERATION 56
Carbon Sequestration 61
AFFORESTATION 62
CONCLUSIONS 64
Bibliography: 68
Appendix A - Agricultural Effects of Elevated Carbon Dioxide Levels
Table A-l Emissions Summary by Source and Gas A-l
Table A-2 Relative Yield Increases of Carbon Dioxide Enriched Crops A-2
Appendix B - Emission Reduction and Cost Calculations for Greenhouse Gas
Reduction Strategies B-l
The Residential Sector B-l
The Industrial Sector B-9
The Transportation Sector B-10
The Electricity Generation Sector B-l4
Carbon Sequestration B-15
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INTRODUCTION
Global climate change poses daunting public policy problems. Since humans first effectively
harnessed the energy within coal and oil, a myriad of new technologies and machinery have
saved inestimable amounts of labor and vastly improved living standards. We dwell and work in
large homes and buildings which are warm in the winter and cool in the summer, we routinely
travel great distances and we have access to a wide array of consumer goods. And yet the
principal power source supporting this living standard may threaten the world community.
Fossil fuels emit carbon dioxide when burned. Over the past 100 years, carbon dioxide levels in
the atmosphere increased 25 percent. Carbon dioxide concentrations will continue to increase as
the world population grows and societies around the globe industrialize.
Within the scientific community there is near unanimity of opinion that adding carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere will alter the Earth's climate. The great debate
and uncertainty is over how much and how rapidly the climate will change, and how that change
will affect flora, fauna, and human society. Depending upon the speaker, the projected effects of
climate change range from apocalyptic to desirable. The divergence of opinions reveals our
limited knowledge and understanding of how the climate system works. Even more uncertain
are regional changes in important climate parameters like temperature, soil moisture,
precipitation, storm severity and flooding. Understanding how climate change might affect these
parameters is extremely important as flora, fauna and human society are sensitive to them all.
Compounding the scientific uncertainties are the economic costs of greenhouse gas mitigation
programs. Estimates of the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions at 80 percent of their
1990 levels range from essentially no cost up to a permanent and re-occurring 3 percent loss in
U.S. Gross National Product. The uncertain consequences of climate change along with
potentially high mitigation costs makes developing and implementing an appropriate response
extremely difficult. Oates and Portney summarize the scientific and policy difficulties
associated with global climate change as follows:
It is hard to imagine a policy problem more daunting than global warming. To begin with,
we are not sure what we are up against. The problem is shrouded in uncertainties of the
most difficult sort. Actions today to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases will have their
effects on global climate many years down the road, and the magnitude and timing of these
effects are the subject of much dispute. Point estimates ofpossible changes in temperature,
rainfall, and other dimensions of global climate come with large confidence intervals, and
the estimates are themselves often based on relatively simplistic extrapolations that do not
allow for potentially frightening changes in climate should we set offprocesses of which we
are currently unaware. Our imperfect knowledge has led to sharply contrasting policy
positions: at one extreme are those suggesting that we wait until we have a firmer
understanding of the global warming process before adopting costly preventive measures;
at the other are those urging rapid action to forestall some possibly catastrophic outcomes.
But uncertainty is not the only aspect of global warming that makes it so difficult to address.
Effective policies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases are likely to be very expensive.
William Nordhaus [1991], for example, estimates that the cost of cutting greenhouse gas
emissions in half, if done efficiently on a worldwide scale, would be on the order of 1
percent of world output, and could easily cost more. We couldfind ourselves in the United
States spending as much on such policies as we spend on all other efforts to control
pollution combined! Moreover, global warming is an international public good. Emissions
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from one country are essentially a perfect substitute for emissions elsewhere. The issue
then is one of total planetary emissions of these gases. And no one country is of sufficient
size to "go it alone. " Effective policies to address global warming will have to be
international in scope—they must enlist widespread participation if there is to be any hope
of success.
—Bill Oates and Paul Portney
Climate change is disquieting precisely because of what we do not know: its magnitude, timing
and the range of consequences. Further, present day decision-makers will be long dead before
the consequences are known. The scientific uncertainties and mitigation costs leave policy
makers with a conundrum. On the one hand, failure to act may hasten the onset of severe
climate effects. On the other hand, an investment of vast resources may prevent an insignificant
or even beneficial climate change. As such, policy makers need the wisdom of Solomon to
devise a response that balances present day economic growth and prosperity with the future
environment. While this report makes no claim to impart such wisdom, it should provide policy
makers with some notion of the key uncertainties of climate change, the potential effects in
Washington state and the measures available to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Policy makers
need such information to balance present day social and economic needs with the potential harm
caused by climate change to future generations and the environment.
To this end, this report begins with a description of current knowledge and key uncertainties
about the greenhouse effect. This section includes a discussion of the magnitude and timing of
anticipated changes in important climate parameters. This section then speculates about the
effect of these climate changes on Washington State. The second section of this report projects
the State's greenhouse gas emissions inventory for the years 1990 and 2010. Next is a
description of various options available to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Whenever
possible, estimates of the carbon dioxide reduction potential and economic costs of each option
are included. The report concludes with a discussion of alternative approaches policy makers
might follow to develop a response to global climate change.
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
All celestial bodies radiate energy. The wavelength of the
radiated energy is inversely related to the temperature of the
celestial body. The hot sun emits short wavelength radiation
that easily passes through the Earth's atmosphere. The
relatively cool Earth radiates long wavelength infrared
energy. Atmospheric gases such as water vapor, carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone can "intercept"
some of this infrared energy and re-radiate it in all
directions. The portion directed downwards further warms
the Earth. This phenomenon, known as the greenhouse
effect is a vital part of Earth's climate. The earth would be
some 30 degrees Celsius colder were greenhouse gases
absent from the atmosphere.
Climate change has become a concern because of increasing
levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Over the last
100 years fossil fuel consumption (e.g., the burning of coal,
petroleum products and natural gas), deforestation and
The Radiation Budget
The radiative budget is a term used by
scientists to track energy flows in the
atmosphere. It basically works as follows:
Incoming solar radiation has an energy of
340 Watts per square meter (W/m ) of
which 100 W/m is reflected back into
space (from ice, snow and clouds). The
remaining 240 W/m warms the earth to
-18°C. The earth's surface radiates 420
2
W/m . The atmosphere absorbs a large
fraction of the of the 420 W/m and
2
re-radiates 180 W/m back to earth. This
raises the Earth's temperature to about 15°
C. Doubling pre-industrial atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO2) levels would
increase the energy reflected back to earth
2
by about 4 W/m . However, while it is
relatively easy to predict how atmospheric
changes affect the radiation budget,
estimating a temperature and climate
response is much more difficult.
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Global Warming Action Plan
industrial activity has elevated carbon dioxide levels from
280 to 350 parts per million; methane concentrations from 0.8
to 1.7 parts per million; and nitrous oxide levels from 288 to
310 parts per billion. These additional greenhouse gases
portend a stronger greenhouse effect and a warmer earth. In
fact, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,
1992) concluded that the global mean temperature has
increased 0.3 to 0.5°C since the 1880s.3
Attributing this rise in temperature to a specific cause is very
difficult. Scientists predict the effect of increased greenhouse
gas concentrations on the global climate with computer global
circulation models (GCMs). While scientists are improving
the physical realism of these models, shortcomings remain.
Perhaps most important is that several important climate
feedbacks are only partially understood. For example, alone,
a doubling of carbon dioxide levels would raise temperatures
less than 1°C. GCMs presume that a carbon dioxide induced
temperature rise will increase atmospheric water vapor—a
potent greenhouse gas—and magnify the climate change.
However, the magnitude of the water vapor and other
feedbacks is the subject of much scientific debate and active
research. (See sidebar). Despite this and other shortcomings,
GCMs do represent the global climate system reasonably well
and in any case are the best predictive tool available.
Furthermore, knowledge about how the climate system works
continues to grow. For example, chlorofluorocarbon gases
were once thought significant greenhouse gases (a 0.6 W/m2
increase in radiative-forcing) but are now assumed to have no
net effect. Though potent greenhouse gases, they destroy
stratospheric ozone, another global warming gas. The
decrease in global warming potential from stratospheric ozone depletion is thought to offset the
radiative-forcing contribution of chlorofluorocarbons. Therefore, GCM predictions that include
the radiative forcing of chloroflourocarbons systematically overstate warming.4
3 The IPCC, a joint effort of the United Nations Environmental Programme and the World Meteorological
Organization, was formed in 1988 to assess the current scientific information on climate change. One degree
Celsius is equivalent to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit. Therefore, the temperature rise ranges from 0.5 to 0.9°F.
4 By lowering stratospheric ozone levels and allowing more ultraviolet radiation to reach the earth's surface,
chlorofluorocarbons may initiate another cooling effect. Ultraviolet radiation produces hydroxyl radicals, highly
reactive molecules. (Hydroxyl radicals consists of one oxygen and one hydrogen atom). Hydroxyl radicals have
two cooling effects: they scavenge methane from the atmosphere (another greenhouse gas) and through a complex
interaction with sulfur dioxide they may increase cloud albedo (Toumi, Bekki).
On the other hand, Daniel et. al., warns that many chlorofluorocarbon substitutes are "effective radiative absorbers
but lead to zero or very little ozone loss, making them very effective net warming agents... [T]he nature and
magnitude of substitutes west for current [chlorofluorocarbon] sources is likely to become a subject of increasing
importance in predicting future climate change. " This could result in sharply increased "halocarbon radiative
heating in the latter part of the 21st century. "
Climate Feedbacks
A climate feedback is any mechanism that
amplifies or diminishes the effect of the
original change in the system. In addition
to water vapor, other important climate
feedbacks include:
• Snow-Ice Albedo: Snow and ice reflect
light (albedo) and lower temperatures.
Warming induced ice/snow recession
would decrease light reflection and
intensify warming. If, however, climate
change increases polar precipitation (as
some GCMs project) snow/ice at the
poles may expand, reflect more light and
slow warming.
• Cloud: The cloud feedback is large,
complex and poorly understood. Clouds
are though to have a net cooling effect,
depending on latitude and water content
If cloud formation increases with global
warming (due to increased evaporation)
a cooling feedback may occur.
• Ocean: Ocean storage of CO2, depends
on temperature and physical behavior
(ocean currents). Ocean feedback is
usually thought to accelerate global
warming, however, regional responses
are poorly understood.
• Methane: Warmer temperatures speed
the chemical transformation of methane
into less potent CO2 Warming may also
increase methane releases from oceans.
The resulting feedback from these
opposing effects is uncertain.
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A second example of improved understanding about the
climate system concerns the cooling effects of sulfur dioxide
pollution. Once in the atmosphere, sulfur dioxide transforms
into sulfate aerosols. These aerosols intercept some sunlight
before it reaches the earth and reflect it back into space. The
cooling effect of sulfate aerosols may reach 1 W/m2
(Charlson). Efforts to control sulfur dioxide emissions will
lower the cooling effect of this pollutant.5
After considering these and other developments, the IPCC
recently concluded that recent changes in global temperature
were "...unlikely to be entirely due to natural causes and that
a pattern of climatic response to human activities is
identifiable in the climatological record." (IPCC, 1995). As
this IPCC conclusion indicates, little debate remains over the
physics of global warming. Most agree that elevated
greenhouse gas levels will raise temperatures and alter the
climate.6 However, projecting the magnitude and timing of
the change is very complicated. A basic element of this projection is the rate at which
greenhouse gas concentrations increase. The four GCMs presented in the 1992 IPCC
supplemental report model a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations in 70, 60, 100 and 170
years. This is a heroic assumption since scientists cannot even balance the present day carbon
cycle. After subtracting ocean uptake and atmospheric loading from fossil fuel and terrestrial
emissions, some 1.2 metric gigatons (approximately 1.4 billion short tons) of carbon dioxide
remain unaccounted for (Tans, Douglas). Some recent research suggests that a combination of
uptake by Northern Hemisphere forests and carbon deposition account for the missing carbon
(Schimel, Culotta).
Another difficulty in predicting long-term climate change is fluctuations in atmospheric carbon
dioxide loading. Most GCMs assume a linear or exponential increase in greenhouse gas levels.
However, actual loading is very much more variable. Conway et. al., report that carbon dioxide
loading fell from almost 5 gigatons per year to less than 2 gigatons per year between 1987 and
1992. (This indicates the variability of atmospheric carbon loading; it does not signify a
downward trend.) Francey et. al. attributes much of the recent change to a strong El Nino event.7
5 Efforts to control sulfur dioxide pollution has two adverse global warming effects: fewer aerosols will be present
to reflect incoming solar radiation and control equipment often decreases power plant efficiency, raising carbon
dioxide emissions per unit energy produced. While sulfur dioxide emissions have clearly fallen in the U.S., world
wide trends are less clear. For example, should high sulfur coal partially power industrialization in China, overall
emissions could increase.
6 Some do dispute the IPCC conclusion. Dissenters observe that: 1) the recent warming mostly occurred between
1880 and 1940, a period of slowly rising greenhouse gas levels and a response too quick to account for the ocean's
thermal lag; 2) the geographic distribution of warming, primarily in the tropics, is not consistent with GCM
predictions; 3) GCMs project warming and cooling periods of up to 0.5°C even when the radiation forcing is held
constant; and 4) the warming may be a natural recovery from the little ice age of 1300 to 1800. Solow argues that
"[w]hen natural variability is so great, it is dangerous to attribute any particular change to any particular cause."
7 During El Nino events ocean upwelling along the western South American coast is minimized and carbon-poor
ocean waters increase uptake of carbon dioxide. La Nina events, the converse of El Nino events, lower equatorial
sea-surface temperatures and encourage the upwelling of carbon rich waters, releasing carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere. Presently, scientists do not know the cause of El Nino or La Nina events.
Computer Climate Model Limitations
Computer climate models are derived from
weather-forecasting programs. They have
many built-in assumptions based on past
weather and climate. Fundamentally
different conditions, like elevated CO2
levels, may invalidate those assumptions.
Computer power also limits GCMs. As
such they simplisticly represent climate.
For example, many hold that the oceans
drive much of world climate (Rahmstorf).
Unfortunately, both our understanding of
ocean behavior and GCM modeling of
atmosphere/ocean interaction are wanting.
Climate models also do not deal well with
chaotic behavior; unexpected variations in
wind/ocean behavior can significantly alter
climate predictions.
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The amount of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere also depends on carbon cycle feedbacks.
Temperature, precipitation, vegetation distribution, land use and atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels all affect terrestrial systems carbon uptake. Secondary factors include increased
ultraviolet radiation, eutrophication, and pollution on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.
Francey reports that ocean and terrestrial uptake can each annually vary up to 2 gigatons of
carbon dioxide. Presently, our understanding of the implications of carbon cycle feedbacks is
lacking (Chameides). Therefore, while it is generally agreed that greenhouse gas levels will rise
over time, considerable uncertainty remains as to how quickly this will occur.8
Finally, it is important to remember that regional climate changes can vary significantly from
global averages. Moreover, seasonal changes in precipitation, soil moisture, sea level and storm
severity are likely to be very important consequences of climate change. As a result,
uncertainties abound when predicting the consequence of climate change for a region.
THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING IN WASHINGTON STATE
Prior to discussing the potential effects of global climate change on the Pacific northwest, we
examine changes in temperature and precipitation in Washington since 1900. Figure 1 reveals
that temperatures across the state increased through the 1930s and, despite substantial year-to-
year variation, held steady on average thereafter.9 (There does, however, appear to be an
increase in minimum temperatures since the 1950s.) In western Washington, average annual
temperature typically varies about 0.5°C between years and changes over 1.0°C are not
uncommon. Eastern Washington experiences higher inter-annual variation; averaging 0.7°C and
ranging up to 1.5°C. This figure does not indicate whether changes in seasonal temperatures
occurred.
Figure 2 presents precipitation levels across Washington. Although quite variable, rainfall
appears to have changed little over the past 90 years. However, between years rainfall changes
average more than 15 percent (both increasing and decreasing) and changes over 35 percent have
occurred. Together, the temperature and precipitation profiles in Washington indicate a climate
prone to relatively large swings in character. The effects of global climate change must be
considered against this natural variability.
8 As our knowledge about the global climate system is incorporated into the GCMs, projections about the timing
and magnitude of climate change will evolve. For example, the 1990 IPCC report projects global temperatures
rising 1.5 to 4.5°C in response to a doubling of effective carbon dioxide levels. The Draft 1995 IPCC report
amends that projection to 0.8-3.5°C. A "best guess" equilibrium temperature rise through the year 2100 from
projected concentrations of greenhouse gases ranges from 1.4 to 2.8°C. However, this is only 50-70% of the
ultimate temperature rise expected from carbon dioxide levels anticipated for the year 2100.
Moreover, there is no reason to believe greenhouse gases concentrations will stabilize by the year 2100. One must
view the temperature estimates as points along the global warming path. On the other hand, Cline suggests that
over the long-term (250+ years), deep ocean mixing will increase ocean carbon dioxide uptake, partially reversing
the atmospheric build-up.
9 Information on Washington state temperature and precipitation came from Trends
'93, A Compendium of Data on Global Change, Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratories. The data divided the state into
three sections: North Pacific Coast; North Cascades; and East Slope North
Cascades (see figure at right)..
I I North Pacific Coast I I North Cascades
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Figure 1
Annual Temperature Variation in Washington by Region
a>
. Pacific Coast
-Cascades
- East Slope Cascades
J
1900 1910
1920
1930
1940 1950
Year
1960
1970
1980
1990
Figure 2
Regional Precipitation in Washington
2000 -
Pacific Coast Cascades East Slope Cascades
500 - y\ /
vV- V-v
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
The assessment of climate change in Washington is based on data presented in the 1992 IPCC
supplemental report. The IPCC report details climate response predictions of four coupled
ocean-atmospheric GCMs to a transient doubling of carbon dioxide. One model indicates
temperatures will rise less than 1°C for the Pacific Northwest-British Columbia region; two
predict temperatures 1-2°C warmer; the fourth models a 2-3°C temperature increase. Perhaps
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even more important, the GCMs indicate little change in average rainfall and only a slight
decrease in soil moisture.10
While acknowledging the uncertainty regarding any climate change prediction, this report
assumes that the IPCC is the best judge of an estimate's credibility. Therefore, based on the data
from the IPCC report, the report assumes a 2°C rise in temperatures in Washington as a result of
a doubling of effective carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. In addition, average
10 The progenitors of the four GCMs discussed in the IPCC supplemental report are (1) the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (USA), (2) the Max-Plank Institute (Germany), (3) the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory, (USA), and (4) the Meteorological Office, (UK). The climate change estimates for Washington used in
this report were interpolated from graphical representations of GCM output. Two examples are below. The top
figure below presents surface temperature changes estimates averaged over years 31 to 60 by the National Center
for Atmospheric Research model. The bottom figure below presents temperature change estimates averaged over
years 60 to 80 by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. Note that the temperature change predictions
are greatest at high latitudes.
Temperature Change (Celsius) Estimates Resulting from a Doubling of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels
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precipitation levels are assumed not to change. These predictions form the basis for assessing
how climate change might affect Washington State.11
When discussing the potential effects of global climate
change in Washington, it is important to remember that the
uncertainties inherent in global climate change predictions are
amplified in the regional assessments. The IPCC cautions
that "there are many uncertainties in our predictions
particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional
patterns of climate change." They go on to say that the
"confidence in the regional changes simulated by GCMs
remains low." Therefore, one must consider the following
predictions of the effect of climate change in Washington as
speculative. Nevertheless, speculation is important to provide
the policy maker with some notion what climate change may
have in store for the state.
Human Health and Comfort
The first area of concern is human health and comfort. Using
historical weather-mortality relationships, Nichols et. al.
found that hot weather had a large mortality effect on
northern and mid-west cities. In the south, where high
temperatures are the norm, the effect was much smaller. In
addition, they found that early summer high temperatures had
a larger effect than late summer highs. The authors
concluded that temperature "shocks" are an important factor
in mortality and that humans acclimate to heat stress
conditions. Table 2 presents Nichols' estimates of climate
change induced heat related mortality for several cities.
Table 2
Estimates of Heat Related Mortality With Climate Change^
11 Others predict more extreme climate change. Giorgi et. al., for
example, nests a regional model within a GCM to predict a rise in
northwest summer and winter temperatures of 4.7°C and 3.7°C. Giorgi
also predicts a 25 percent increase in precipitation. While this technique
may improve regional climate change predictions, Giorgi cautions that
"the primary purpose of this work was not to produce climate change
scenarios (for example, for impact assessments) but rather to further test
and evaluate the application of the nested ... modeling methodology to
climate studies. Our results are thus mostly illustrative in nature. "
The Evolving World
When considering the consequences of
climate change, one problem is to separate
natural evolution from anthropogentic
change. The very name "climate change"
suggests our climate is static when, in fact,
it is not. For example, from 600 to 1250
AD—the Medieval Optimum—Europe was
warm. During this time Greenland was
colonized and vineyards were cultivated in
England. A Little Ice Age occurred
between 1500 to 1850. Cold winters,
reduced agriculture production and frozen
canals characterized this period. Projecting
consequences of global climate change in
the face of such intrinsic change is
extremely problematic.
Moreover, society is also changing and at
speeds which exceed our ability to
contemplate life 100 years in the future.
Imagine the 1900 futurist predicting
computers and other electronic devices,
moon travel, nuclear energy or nuclear
weapons, plastics, genetics, antibiotics and
other medical advances. Moreover, people
will adapt to climate change as they do
with all changing circumstances.
The environment also evolves. Northwest
paleontology studies reveal an evolving
assortment of species and plants. Most
plant communities are transient, seldom
lasting for more than 2,000 to 5,000 years
(Franklin). Agricultural crops also evolve.
The National Academy of Sciences reports
a ten years lifetime for any particular strain
of major US agricultural crop.
Looking further back in time Benton
reports tremendous changes in biological
diversity. "The diversity of all organisms
increased rapidly during the Vendian and
Early Cambrian to a global diversify of
280families, then fell to 120 families in the
Late Cambrian, and increased during the
Ordovician to about 450. Diversity rose
gradually from 450 to 600families during
the Paleozoic, fell to 420families at the
beginning of the Triassic, then rose rapidly
to 1260families at the end of the
Cretaceous... " Gould concludes that
"[m]ass extinctions have been recorded
since the dawn of paleontology. " and
opines that such extinctions removed
competitors to our biologic ancestors.
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San Francisco 27 66 49
1 From Nichols ct. al.. "Possible Human Health Impacts of a Global Warming,"
Nichols also observed threshold temperatures above which mortality significantly increases.
Kalkstein and Davis corroborate this observation and reports Seattle temperature thresholds of
32°C for the summer and 3°C for the winter. Thus, if global climate change elevates summer
temperatures above 32°C, one would expect increased mortality in Seattle. On the other hand, a
reduction in winter time temperature excursions below 3°C, would decrease expected mortality.
While these findings underscore the health consequences of temperature extremes, there are
three mitigating factors. First, in a process known as mortality displacement, Nichols' analysis
suggests that 20 to 40 percent of the people who died during heat waves would have died soon
afterward even if the heat wave had not occurred. Second, the temperature record over the past
100 years suggests that the observed 0.5°C temperature change resulted from rising nighttime
rather than daytime temperatures.12 A limited mortality effect should result if climate change
continues to manifest itself in this way. Finally, both Nichols and Kalkstein indicate a high
degree of acclimation to temperature. For example, summer and winter mortality temperature
thresholds for Phoenix and Minneapolis are 45°C and -20°C, respectively. Acclimation of
Seattle's population to a warmer temperature regime would reduced the mortality consequences
of climate change.
Indirect health effects are less certain. It is probably correct to assume that disease vectors
(e.g., ticks, mosquitoes) now confined to the tropics will spread into more temperate regions with
global warming. Much less certain is how the diseases they carry will respond to the newly
invaded areas. Bacteria, viruses and fungi are all affected by atmospheric conditions. Climate
change may enhance or diminish the range and fortitude of these organisms. As one example,
the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of both dengue and yellowfever, was accidentally introduced
into the southern U.S. The mosquito has now spread extensively to the east and north.
However, this vector has yet to transmit either disease to man. Unfortunately, similar
circumstances in Brazil brought about an outbreak of dengue (Rogers and Packer).
According to Dobson and Carper, the effects of tropical pathogens are likely to become worse as
they move into a warmer and more humid temperate zone. Patz agrees "The spread of infectious
diseases will be the most important public health problem related to climate change " (quoted by
Stone). However, Hayes and Hussain could not statistically validate a temperature-disease
relationship. They found neither a strong nor consistent relationship between temperature and
the diseases tuberculosis, lyme disease, pertussis, malaria or typhoid fever. It is unknown
whether a 2°C temperature rise would bring tropical diseases such as malaria, yellowfever and
schistosomiasis to Washington. In any event, public health practices would likely help mitigate
the prevalence and effect of these diseases should they reach this State.
Other effects of climate change on human populations include altered recreational opportunities.
Recreation and tourism is especially vulnerable to climate change precisely due to its association
with nature. Warming, for example would adversely affect snow skiing, while water skiing
should benefit. That climate change will affect recreational opportunities in Washington is near
certain. Whether the overall result is positive or negative depends on personal preferences.
12 The rise in nighttime temperatures over the last 100 years illustrates that the manifestation of future temperature
increases is far from clear. A 2°C temperature rise will likely vary between seasons and even between days. Some
speculate more extreme summertime temperatures but warmer winters are equally probable.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Agriculture and Vegetation
Climate change has the potential to affect agriculture in many ways: altered precipitation
patterns, adjusted soil moisture, modified pest behavior and ranges, changed storm frequency
and intensity. Farmers may need to modify crop selection, planting, irrigation and fertilization
practices in response to climate change. Nevertheless, most reports suggest that U.S. farmers
can adapt to all but the most pessimistic climate change scenarios. This finding is based on the
carbon dioxide fertilization and improved water efficiency effect (see sidebar). Indeed, the
general tenor of scientific reports regarding the effects of climate change on agriculture is one of
guarded optimism. According to Rosenzweig . .[agricultural]production in the developed
world benefitedfrom climate change. " Culotta is even stronger. "For now, there's consensus
that air rich in [carbon dioxide] will be a boon for many farmers, at least in developed nations. "
In Washington the agricultural effects do not appear severe.
A 2°C temperature rise may expand the growing season
(potentially allowing an additional crop rotation), reduce
night frosts, and is within the tolerance limits of most cash
crops. An EPA report (1989) suggests that climate change
could increase agriculture acreage 5 to 17 percent in the
Northwest. Though lower soil moisture may increase
irrigation requirements. Schneider estimates that 3-4 percent
more cropland will need irrigation. Presently, irrigation
consumes only 6 percent of the Columbia basin flow and
much of this water eventually finds it way back in the rivers
as irrigation return flows (Department of Energy).
McKenney suggests that the improved plant water use
efficiency may largely counter the need for additional
irrigation. Together, the combined effects of warming,
carbon dioxide fertilization and improved water-use-
efficiency, while uncertain, appear unlikely to adversely
affect and may even benefit Washington's agriculture
industry.
One very large complication in this assessment is potential
changes in insect and fungi behavior. In a carbon dioxide
rich environment plant nitrogen and water use efficiencies
improve and less nitrogen is contained in shoots. Reduced
nitrogen levels lower the nutritional value of a plant to
insects.13 Thompson found elevated carbon dioxide levels
lowered both insect infestation and the severity of pathogenic
fungal infection in a sedge crop relative to plants grown at
ambient carbon dioxide concentrations. Conversely, fungal
infection increased in a grass. For both types of plants the
severity of insect infestation and the amount of tissue that
each insect ate decreased. Climate change may also alter the
range and resiliency of pests and thus introduce new pests and
13 A secondary effect of an improved nitrogen use efficiency could be an inc
compounds are associated with plant defense mechanisms.
The CO2 Fertilization Effect
Laboratory studies consistently show that
elevated C02 benefits plants. Plants
assimilate carbon during photosynthesis in
one of two processes. The C3 plants are
less efficient than the C4 plants, wasting
about half the carbon taken in. Thus, C3
plants benefit more from elevated carbon
dioxide. After reviewing 70 studies of 37
plant species, Kimball reports that doubling
C02 levels increased the yield of C3 plants
(soybeans, rice, wheat, root crops, most
tree species) by 35 percent and C4 plants
(corn, sorghum, sugar cane) by 15 percent
(see appendix A). However, others report
that accelerated plant growth diminishes
over time.
Carbon dioxide enrichment also appears to
improve plant water use efficiency. The
stomata (pores in plant leaves through
which water escapes and C02 enters)
narrow as C02 levels rise, reducing plant
transpiration (water loss). Elevated C02
also appears to improve plant nitrogen use
efficiency. Moreover, some studies
suggest that high C02 levels stimulate
biological nitrogen fixation which may
alleviate nitorgen nutrient limitations over
decadal time-scales. (Schimel)
The combined growth rate and water use
efficiency responses appear to provide C4
crops a comparative advantage under drier
conditions and C3 crops an advantage with
constant water availability. However, the
response of weather and nutrient stressed
field crops is uncertain. Bazzaz and Fajer
argue against increased growth under
nutrient poor conditions.
..ji.ij.ju ..j , .j. u. |j i .u i u uj
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Global Warming Action Plan
diseases to Washington crops. Overall, however, available
information does not alter the basic premise that climate
change is unlikely to adversely affect Washington's
agriculture industry.
Climate change may have a greater import to plants outside of
intensively managed agriculture. Seemingly small climate
variances can significantly affect plant health and vibrancy.
Harte experimentally heated plots in a Colorado meadow
(carbon dioxide levels were not enhanced). He found that
shrubs consistently grew better under warmed conditions
whether wet or dry. Grasses showed no change in growth
with warming and forbs consistently fared worse, especially
under dry conditions. Thus, one might expect climate change alters the comparative advantages
between plant species. However, the significance of such changes are not known.
Forest Systems
Climate change will likely affect forests in similar ways to agriculture. For example, elevated
carbon dioxide levels enhances tree growth; 23 to 40 percent for a doubling of ambient carbon
dioxide levels (Kirshbaum et. al.). This accelerated growth even occurs in low nutrient soils.
Kirshbaum reports large increases in root weight and hypothesizes increased nutrient use
efficiency. For example, they predict a 12 percent increase in pine wood production at double
current carbon dioxide levels even with nitrogen poor soil. Other experimenters report
photosynthesis efficiency improvements and reduced leaf area in trees at elevated carbon dioxide
levels. Norby hypothesizes that elevated carbon dioxide levels may improve trees ability to
withstand environmental stress because less leaf area is needed to sustain growth. Over time,
tests on individual trees found that the accelerated growth rates generally slowed. The cause of
this slowing is not known; potential explanations include
acclimation to elevated carbon dioxide levels, nutrient
restriction, or limitations on roots imposed by the pots the
trees grew in.
Extrapolating data from these short term-studies on individual
trees to long-term effects for entire forest systems is
problematic. Forests grow best under specific conditions: the
right soil type, moisture, temperature. The changes brought
about by climate change may upset those conditions
sufficiently to force forest shifts. Since forests are long-lived,
these shifts may not be noticeable for many, even hundreds of
years. While mature trees will likely weather the climate
changes, seedlings and saplings—the most vulnerable stage
of tree growth—may not survive to replace the existing forest stock as it dies off. On the other
hand, the carbon dioxide fertilization effect may partially mollify these effects by increasing the
vitality of seedling and young trees.
In the Pacific Northwest, Douglas-fir is the dominant commercial forest species. The upper
elevation limit of coastal Douglas-fir is determined by the winter snowpack, which physically
damages seedlings. Should the rise in temperature elevate the snow line, the upper elevation
limit of Douglas-fir on the west side of the Cascade Mountains may move up-slope. Based on
The World Food Supply
While the threat of climate change to
agriculture in Washington appears small,
more severe consequences are projected in
less developed parts of the world. In a
report on climate change's effect on world
food supply, Rosenzweig concluded that "
.. .production in developing nations [will]
declined". This, of course, raises
moral/ethical questions since the standard
of living enjoyed by the developed
countries may endanger those in the
developing world.
Forest Management Practices
Until recently, a long standing policy of
State and federal forestry agencies was to
suppress all forest lires. During this period
woody debris accumulated 011 the forest
floor adding to the fuel available lor lires.
This has increased the likelihood of
disastrous lires. These conditions increase
the costs of forest lires: costs to put out
fires, costs to replace/replant stands and
costs in habitat loss. I11 areas with limited
fire suppression activities, the effect of
increased lires may be less significant.
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this logic Leverenz projects that Douglas-fir [and western hemlock] will "...expandor maintain
its present position over most of its commercially important range. However, the species [does]
decrease in... eastern Washington. " Franklin et. al. dispute this finding noting Douglas-fir's
aversion to wind exposed environments even when moisture and temperature conditions are
within its tolerances. They argue that rather than moving in "intact multi-species communities,"
forest shifts will depend on micro area conditions. Overall, Franklin predicts relatively small
reduction (5 percent) in forested area in western Washington but a large loss (26 percent) east of
the Cascades. Conversely, Melillo projects a 9 percent increase in "net primary production" for
temperate coniferous and mixed forests (similar to Washington's forests) from the combination
of carbon dioxide levels at 600 parts per million and the associated climate change.14
Another concern about the effect of global climate change on forests includes the potential for an
increase in severity and number of forest fires. Forest fires result when four forces converge:
fire ignition, adequate fuel (wood and biomass debris), low fuel moisture levels, and dry
weather. Once ignited, forest fire behavior is guided by fuel, weather and topography.
There are two fire seasons in Washington. The spring season occurs when trees are relatively
dry before emerging from their winter dormancy. Given the high precipitation during the spring,
a warming may bring on this fire season somewhat earlier but is unlikely to increase the severity
or number of fires during this period. The fall fire season results from trees drying out over the
summer. During this season, climate change could significantly effect forest fires. Warmer
temperatures would increase the rate of drying and lengthen the fire season. Together these
factors are likely to result in both an increase in the number of and area burnt by forest fires.
Indeed, Price studied the effect of doubling carbon dioxide concentrations on lighting-caused
fires. He estimated a 44 percent increase in the number of these fires in the northwest. He also
estimated an increase of 78 percent in the forest area burnt by fires for the entire United States.15
In sum, there is no reason to believe that climate change will denude the Pacific Northwest of
forests. However, climate change will create opportunities for change in the forestscape. Over
the long run, altered comparative advantages between tree species may change the climax
species of an area. Furthermore, forests may expand into currently inhospitable environs while
other areas will no longer be able to sustain forests. Natural forests with their greater diversity
are likely to show more resilience to climate change than intensively managed mono-stand
forests.
Fish and the Fishery Resource
In general, climate change will likely affect fish in three ways. Any changes to rain fall patterns,
whether increasing, decreasing, or occurring at a different time of the year, are important to fish.
Second, as water density changes with temperature, changes to stratification and circulation
patterns may result. Finally, water holds less oxygen at elevated temperatures. Therefore,
climate change may physiologically constrain a water body's organism carrying capacity.
14Net Primary Production is the amount of carbon captured by land plants through photosynthesis each year. It
provides one measure to estimate the response of regional ecosystems to the combined effects of carbon dioxide
fertilization and global warming.
15 Around 80 percent of fires in Washington are directly caused by human carelessness or intention. Global climate
change may create conditions that increase the number of these actions that turn into forest fires and the intensity of
those fires. However, since these fires are preventable, a philosophical question over whether climate change
(which enhances the conditions of fire) is at fault for increasing forest fires or man (the initiator of fire).
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Francis investigated climate change effects on the aquatic food chain. He argues that changes in
physical ocean processes (e.g., currents that transport eggs and larval fish from spawning to
nursery grounds; water column mixing that affects food production and availability) will affect
fish more directly than climate change.. Uncertainty regarding how the marine food chain
functions leads Francis to conclude that " . .we cannot confidently predict how [the ocean food
chain and ultimately fish themselves] will be affected by climate change. " Table 3 presents
some potential effects of climate change on ocean fisheries.
Table 3
Potential Effects of Climate Change on Ocean Biota and Fisheries*
Projected Effects on Fisheries
Climate Related
Effects
1. Increased mean water
temperature.
2. Increased surface
vertical stability
3. Decreased latitude and
seasonal sea-ice
extent.
4. Weakening, poleward
and seasonal shifts in
storm tracks and
surface turbulence
5. Weakening, poleward
and seasonal shifts in
wind-driven surface
currents and coastal
upwelling
6. Temperature increase
and high latitude
increase in net
precipitation and runoff
Biotic Effects
Increased growth and development rates and
metabolic demands of all species.
Poleward and seasonal shifts in productivity and
predator/prey distribution.
Turbulent waters: increased photosynthesis due to
decreased diffusive nutrient supply.
Stratification of waters: decreased photosynthesis
due to decreased diffusive nutrient supply.
Earlier spring production increased plankton
patchiness.
Decreased surface stability; lower intensity by
greater duration or primary production.
Areas of decreased storminess and turbulence.
Areas of increased storminess and turbulence.
Poleward and seasonal shifts in primary production
patterns depending on orientation of coastline.
Poleward species shifts due to poleward shifts in
salinity patterns.
Increased net precipitation as in (2) above.
Decreased net precipitation opposite of (2) above.
Increased survival and yield, subject to
changes in predator/prey abundance.
Poleward shifts of ranges and migration
patterns, subject to suitable habitat.
Increased potential yield due to increased
food supply.
Decreased potential yield due to decreased
food supply.
Changes in feeding ability of fish and
predators; uncertain net effect on yield.
Increased survival due to increased food
supply; modified by effects on feeding
ability and distribution of predators.
Same as (2) above.
Opposite of (2) above.
Increased yield if food supply increases;
lower yield if food decreases. Increased
survival of eggs and larvae if drift loss
from nursery areas decreases;
decreased survival if drift loss increases.
Local survival affected by drift loss changes
due to runoff, as in (5) above.
Same as (2) above.
Opposite of (2) above.
From Francis and Sibley.
Ray et. al., concludes that widespread extinction of aquatic organisms is not likely as a result of
global climate change. But that widespread changes in community distributions and composition
are probable. These changes will closely track global warming in time, because of the mobility,
large ranges, high fecundity, and rapid growth rates of most marine organisms.
In Washington state, climate change will likely benefit some anadromous and resident fish and
harm others. Neitzel et. al., projected the effects of climate change on 60 Pacific Northwest
salmon and steelhead fish subspecies: 14 were adversely affected; 24 were unaffected; and 21
benefited. Others are concerned that climate change would ultimately introduce even more
stress on fish stocks already depleted due to other environmental factors. Should climate change
increase the importance of irrigation and electricity production relative to the position of fish,
their existence will become even more tenuous.
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Biodiversity
Since time immemorial, climate fluctuations have continually stressed and altered natural
ecosystems. The biodiversity concern with regard to global warming is whether this stress has
prepared species to cope with the coming warming.
EPA (1989) suggests that temperature isoplaths will migrate hundreds of kilometers towards the
poles under climate change. The question is whether the dispersal capabilities of species are
sufficient to stay within their optima climatic zone, and whether species could rapidly colonize
new areas. Species, such as plants propagated by spores or "dust" seeds, may be able to match
the needed migration rates on their own. Others will require human assistance, particularly
given the presence of dispersal barriers. Some mobile animals may shift rapidly, the distribution
of others may be limited by the availability of co-occurring plants and suitable habitat. Behavior
may even restrict those animals physically capable of moving great distances. Dispersal rates
below 2.0 kilometer per year have been measured for several
deer species, for example (Peters). Finally, review of
biodiversity changes associated with the past climatic
changes reveal that species exhibit individualistic patterns of
changes. Therefore, climate change will affect ecosystem
composition.
According to Tracy, temperatures can affect habitat quality.
It governs the time of day and time of year when populations
within a community are active. Increased temperatures can
affect the distribution and abundance of animal species. It
may reduce the number of species in an ecological
community (Tracy). Thus, temperature changes caused by
climate change may catalyze major changes in animal
populations and communities. Potential changes to
agriculture, forestry and fishery from climate change were
discussed above. Other potentially important effects include:
Insect Effects: For many insects, development rates,
speed and distance of movement, and fecundity will
generally increase with temperatures and humidity. These
changes should have pronounced effects on many
ecological processes.
Soil Effects: According to Whitford, most components of
the soil biotic community have wide ranges of tolerance
to temperature and moisture fluctuations in their
environment. Further, the short life cycle of these
organisms should permit genetic adaptation to shifts in the
soil micro-climate. Therefore, it is unlikely that the
projected climatic changes will result in extinction of soil organism species. Climate change
may, however, cause shifts in relative abundance of species. Since processes such as
decomposition and mineralization are the result of the activities of these species, the rates
and patterns of such processes will depend on the species active. Because of the many
feedback loops among soil organisms, plants, and the physical-chemical environment of the
soil, we can expect the temperature induced soil biota to affect the ecosystem.
Conservation Efforts Under Climate
Change
After considering the effect of climate
change on conservation efforts, Graham
concludes that new management strategies
may be necessary:
Most conservationists consider the
extinction of species unacceptable, and
substantial resources have been expended
in their conservation. Similar efforts have
been made for the conservation of
communities. However, the ephemeral
nature of communities, on a geologic time
scale, particularly due to climatic change,
suggests that significant resources should
not be devoted to trying to conserve
specific community types... Rather,
emphasis should be on management
strategies that allow maximum survival of
species and genetic strains and that allow
natural communities to evolve.
For species to survive in the long run, they
must respond to environmental change, in
part by tracking shifting climatic
environments. In the case of mammals
within reserves, this means that the reserve
should ideally be large enough and located
so that species could change their
geographic distributions. During this
process new community patterns would
evolve.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Extending biotic projections to Washington State is no minor challenge. Particularly because for
most species, the links between climate and ecosystems are poorly understood. And where the
links are known, the evidence suggests that species are often more affected by extreme events
rather than changes in mean conditions (Myers and Lester). Moreover, we do not as yet
understand important linkages between the atmosphere, soils, water, biota and global warming
which could exacerbate or mitigate biologic effects.
Energy Demand and Production
Climate change will affect northwest electric demand in conflicting ways. Warmer temperatures
will lessen the winter heating demand. In 1981, the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA)
estimated that a l°Fahrenheit rise in temperature would decrease peak and average electricity
demand in the northwest region about 270 and 262 megawatts, respectively. Thus, a 2°C rise
would lower peak electricity demand almost 1000 megawatts and average electricity demand
950 megawatts.16 Conversely, warmer temperatures increase summertime cooling demand.
Overall, the annual change in electricity consumption is uncertain but anticipated to be small.
However, a lower winter demand could benefit Washington since supply system stress is greatest
at this time.
With regard to electricity production, Washington is especially sensitive to climate change due to
dependence on the hydropower system to meet base electric needs. Indeed, according to Fleagle,
"Changes in water resources may be the most important of the consequences of greenhouse
warming. "To the extent that changes to temperature, precipitation patterns and snow pack
volumes alter seasonal runoff, hydropower production will change.
Warmer temperatures will raise the mountain snowline and decrease snowpack area. A lower
snow pack volume will increase wintertime river flow and
decrease summertime flow. Fleagle argues that the increased
summer-winter flow variation might immeasurably
complicate river management efforts.17 On the other hand, an
unpublished Battelle Laboratory report found that runoff
under warming may better follow electricity demand patterns.
Battelle examined monthly generation capacity under climate
change and found that "hydropower would be generally more
in excess of the needs of the residential and commercial
sectors at more times of the year than under current flows
and current demand. Only June appears to be an exception. "
Lower spring and summer flows are also likely to degrade the
water supply in late summer. However, there are
contravening studies. Skiles concludes that surface runoff in
the arid and semi-arid western U.S. will change little due to
climate change. Taken together, it is unclear whether the
weather induced changes in demand and supply produce a
16 A 2°C is approximately equal to 4°F. Population and economic growth
since 1981. Therefore, a 2°C temperature rise would probably lower wintertime peak and average demand for
electricity even more than the estimates presented above.
17 The Columbia river system is managed for conflicting purposes of power generation, irrigation, transportation,
salmon protection and recreation.
si
Hydroelectricity Production
Washington's hydropower system is driven
by rain runoff, snow melt and controlled
reservoir releases. Snow melt from early
spring to mid-summer fills dam reservoirs
and generates electricity. Continued snow
melt and reservoir water produce electricity
during the summer and fall season. Winter
electricity demand is principally served
through reservoir water.
At its mouth, the Columbia River has an
average annual runoff of about 198 million
acre-feet (275,000 cubic feet per second).
Total Columbia river system storage space
equals 55.3 million acre-feet (including
Canadian dams). Hydroelectric dams on
the Columbia and Snake Rivers annually
produce 18,500 megawatts of electricity.
BPA estimates that a million cubic feet of
water represents about 1.1 billion kilowatt
hours of electricity.
uimmuimi '"uuyi-u i-t i-i L.. . L I "ummM
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Global Warming Action Plan
more favorable or less favorable energy situation in Washington. The current climate models do
not yet paint a clear picture of the energy consequences of global climate change.
Sea-Level Rise
Since water expands as it warms, a potential consequence of climate change is sea-level rise.
Over the past 100 years the sea level has risen globally about 0.12 meters. Recent estimates
suggest that climate change may accelerate sea level rise to about 0.4 meters through 2100
(Wigley and Raper).18 The effect of such a sea level rise on Washington is not straight forward
due to motions of the earth's crust. Much of Washington's Pacific coast is currently rising
relative to the ocean: the land continues to rebound from the great weight upon it during the
previous glacial period and the geological subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate under the North
American plate is tilting the coast upwards (Savage and Liscowski). Northern coast uplift
should roughly equal the projected sea-level rise. Along the southern coast, the sea level should
rise about 0.2 meters through 2100. Sea level rise will have a greater effect over the mid-coastal
area. Aberdeen, for example, may experience the full 0.4 meter rise. For northern Puget Sound
a rise of about 0.3 meters is likely. Over the middle and southern Puget Sound the combination
of geologic subsidence and sea-level rise may raise the sea-level more than 0.5 meters.
The Department of Ecology (Ecology) projected the consequences of 0.5 meter sea-level rise on
state wetlands (Park et. al.). The study found a large loss of tidal flats. This could significantly
decrease shellfish, including oysters and clams; it may also reduce habitat for diving ducks and
brants. In contrast, salt water marshes expanded, gradually reclaiming diked lowlands. The
spread of salt marshes should benefit Chinook salmon, some water fowl and other wildlife.
Freshwater marshes and swamps could slightly increase in area. Some existing wetland, marine
and estuarine communities may migrate inland but other adverse effects are not anticipated. Of
course, the actual effects of the sea-level rise depend on diking and bulkheading activities.
Storms
One frequently mentioned potential effect of climate change is an increase in storm frequency
and severity (Erye). The concern is that storm causing atmospheric temperature gradients will
increase under climate change.19 One study used the proportion of annual precipitation falling
on the rainiest day of the year as a proxy for storminess (Stevens). After tracking changes in
heavy down-pours from 1910 to 1994, this study concluded that storminess has indeed increased
over the eastern and central U.S. However, no change in storminess was found in the western
U.S., including Washington state.
Other studies of storminess assess areas outside of Washington state. Dessens, in a study of
France (a similar latitude to Washington) found a correlation between nighttime temperatures
18 A much less likely but infinitely more catastrophic result of global climate change would be the break up of the
east Antarctic ice sheet. The east antarctic ice sheet is larger than the continental United States and extends over 4
kilometers in altitude in some places. It locks up a mass of water which, if melted, would raise world sea levels by
around 60 meters (Sugden). However, such a breakup is extremely unlikely even under pessimistic climate change
predictions (Sugden). Moreover, the size of ice sheets in dry cold polar environments is restricted more by
precipitation rather than by temperature. Should additional snowfall accompany climate change, as some GCMs
predict, the ice sheet may actually expand rather than decrease in size.
19 Seemingly small changes in wind patterns apparently can, for example, trigger an El Nino event. And El Nino
events significantly affect weather patterns throughout the Pacific basin. However, no one is sure what causes the
wind patterns to change and bring on an El Nino event.
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and hailstorm severity. Hail damage increased 40 percent for every 1°C rise in nighttime
temperature. On the other hand, Kukla and Karl, conclude that that the temperature change
recorded so far (warmer night time and no change in day time temperatures) will moderate rather
than amplify weather extremes. Studies of tropical weather patterns present conflicting results.
Lighthill's study of tropical cyclones predicts a response to climate change so small that it would
be swamped by the large natural variability in storm numbers and intensity. Nadis found a 100-
fold increase in lighting strikes with a 2°C jump in temperature. These discussions of altered
storms patterns outside of Washington are presented for illustrative purposes only; their
relevance to storms in Washington (if any) is not known.
Economic Effects
Global warming is not anticipated to significantly change Washington's economy. Using the
methodology of Nordhaus, sectors of the State's economy are ranked according to their
vulnerability to climate change (see Table 4). The economic sectors most at risk to climate
change—agriculture, food products, forestry, wood and paper products, and fisheries—account
for less than 8 percent of state economic activity. And the agriculture and forestry sectors may
actually do better under climate change. Sectors at a moderate risk to climate change total
slightly more than 8 percent of the economy. Fully 85 percent of the State economy is in areas
that appear insulated from the adverse climate change consequences. Furthermore, should the
service sector of the economy continue its expansion, the portion of Washington's economy at
risk to climate change will continue to fall.
However, the above assessment ignores the fact that Washington annually exports nearly
$40 billion worth of goods and services (1995 Washington State Yearbook). Any assessment of
the effect of climate change on the state's economy should consider changes in the ability of
foreign persons to continue to purchase our goods. Unfortunately, such an assessment is outside
the scope of this report. This report reviews how climate change might affect Washington's
ability to produce goods, not whether there will continue to be buyers for those goods.
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Table 4
Economic Activity in Washington State
by Vulnerability to Climate Change, 1990
Sector Washington State Gross Business Income
Value (millions)* Percent of Total
Potentially Highly Affected
Agriculture 3,084 1.21
Forestry 195 0.08
Fisheries 213 0.08
Food Products 6,157 2.41
Lumber and Paper Products 10,115 3.96
Subtotal 19,764 7.74
Potentially Moderately Affected
General Building Construction 5,504 2.15
Heavy Construction 2,105 0.82
Special Trade Contractors 5,662 2.22
Live Stock/Dairy 1,280 0.50
Water Transportation 1,208 0.47
Energy and Utilities 5,540 2.17
(electricity, natural gas)
Subtotal 21,299 8.33
Generally Unaffected
Mining 238 0.09
Aircraft and Ship Building 25,272 9.89
Other Manufacturing 16,329 6.54
Railroads and Motor Freight 4,990 1.95
Communications 3,865 1.51
Wholesale Trade 73,903 28.91
Retail Trade 48,772 19.08
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 14,544 5.69
Services and Other Businesses 26,249 10.27
Subtotal 214,162 83.93
Total All Industries 255,614 100.00
' Economic values from the 1993 Washington State Yearbook except: agriculture and livestock values
from the Washington State Department of Agriculture.
Summary
While not every potentially important result of climate change is discussed above, it appears
unlikely that Washington will experience severe adverse effects through the years 2050-2080. A
2°C warming is not anticipated to threaten human health, agriculture may do better due to the
carbon dioxide fertilization effect, eastern Washington may loose some forest land, hydropower
production appears minimally affected, the fish effects are uncertain; and the economic risks
appear limited. Of more concern is the consequences of sea-level rise, especially for the central-
south Puget Sound and central coastal areas.20
20 Again, this study does not look beyond the effects expected from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels. Since there is no reason to assume greenhouse gas concentrations will stabilize at this level, the projected
changes must be considered as points along the global climate change path.
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Global Warming Action Plan
It is important to remember that these projected climate
change consequences are speculative. Understanding of the
global climate system is incomplete, as are societal and
environmental responses to a changing climate. Moreover,
surprises—consequences (both good and bad) outside our
ability to predict with current knowledge and
understanding—are possible as climate, environments, and
species interact and adapt in unexpected ways. The
discussion above is based on current understanding of the
global climate system; an understanding that is sure to evolve
as more is learned about climate change.
Finally, the research done for this report suggests that climate
change is probably not an issue of human survival: humans
can adapt to the anticipated changes. Rather, the decisions
before us concern the steps we are willing to take to protect
the environment we know against the risks of climate change.
GREENHOUSE GASES AND WASHINGTON STATE
EMISSIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING GASES IN WASHINGTON STATE
Washington's emissions differ markedly from national averages. Most of the state's electricity
comes from hydro or nuclear sources, both zero greenhouse gas emitters. Washington's forests
remove about one-third of the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (nationally they remove only
12 percent). A third difference is the aluminum industry's emissions of carbon tetrafluoride
which accounts for 10 percent of Washington's greenhouse gas emissions. We consume more
fuel for transportation than other areas. For example, we consume large quantities of jet fuel,
much of which is used for Pacific rim flights. On a per capita basis, Washington emits about
20.3 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent gases per year, about 97 percent of the national average.
There are four principle greenhouse gases emitted in Washington: carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide and carbon tetrafluoride. To ease comparisons, Table 5 reports emissions of all
greenhouse gasses in terms of their carbon dioxide equivalent.21 Net carbon dioxide equivalent
emissions are estimated to grow from 91 to 110 million tons between 1990 and 2010, a 20
percent increase. The most important emission sectors are residential, commercial, industrial,
transportation and forest products.
Table 5 estimates of Washington's greenhouse gas emissions are based on information contained
in two Washington State Energy Office reports (Kerstetter)—with some adjustments. Emissions
estimates from the forest products industry were revised in two ways. First, 1990 forest growth
rates were re-estimated using data from Adams—already the basis for the 2010 estimates. Using
the same data source improves confidence in estimates of relative changes in forest growth and
21 The influence of a gas on climate depends on its radiation absorption capacity and its length of stay in the
atmosphere. Global warming potential (GWP) index numbers were developed to compare the effect of the different
gases. The GWP number indicates the global warming impact of a gas relative to C02. The GWP numbers of
Washington's four dominant gases are:
Carbon Dioxide 1 Nitrous Oxide 270
Methane 11 Carbon Tetrafluoride 8000
Adaptation to Climate Change
The National Academy of Sciences
summarized the likely response of affluent
societies to climate change as follows:
[Affluent societies] have reduced their
sensitivity to natural phenomena in many
ways. Overall, the trend is toward
transportation, communications, and
energy production systems less sensitive to
climate. Improved technology and social
organization also seem to have lessened the
impacts of climate fluctuations on food
supply over the last 100 years. In the time
frame over which the effects of greenhouse
warming are felt, more societies may
become more robust with respect to climate
change.
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carbon dioxide sequestration. The Adams data lowers 1990 forest carbon dioxide sequestration
by about 20 million tons.22 In addition, 20 percent of long-term wood products and 10 percent of
manufactured wood items were assumed to permanently sequester carbon. Housing data indicate
that about 25 percent of homes stand for more than 100 years. Similarly, furniture can
Table 5
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Equivalent by Source (in thousands of tons)
Source
1990
2010
Energy Related
Residential
9,970
12,939
Commercial
5,870
9,100
Industrial
22,560
32,270
Transportation
46,637
66,080
Coal Mining
114
121
Subtotal
85,151
120,510
Materials Production Related
Cement Production
244
618
Lime Production
456
456
Aluminum Production
6,507
3,560
Land fills
4,827
3,066
Forest Long-Term Products
14,160
15,180
Forest Short-Term Products
4,400
3,900
Forest Residue
14,200
15,400
Forestry Slash Burns
1,063
427
Net Annual Forest Growth
(42,600)
(51,500)
Subtotal
3,013
(9,511)
Agricultural Related
Range Cattle
608
608
Dairy Cattle
228
228
Beef Cattle
133
133
Other
160
160
Dairy Manure
506
506
Broilers & Layers
44
44
Beef Cattle Manure
18
18
Swine Manure
13
13
Other Manure
3
3
Fertilizers
790
790
Field Burning
90
108
Subtotal
2,593
2,503
Land-Use Related
Convert Forests to Other Uses
4,319
4,319
Sequestration in Forest Reserves
(3,800)
(8,440)
Wetlands
149
146
Subtotal
668
(3,975)
Total Emissions
91,425
109,527
last for more than 100 years. These changes lowered the estimated carbon dioxide emissions
about 3 million tons per year for both 1990 and 2010.
22 Generally speaking, the forest products sector is the most uncertain among Washington's carbon dioxide sources
and sinks. The estimates presented in this report are likely to continue to evolve as research sheds light on the many
partially understood biological and ecological processes.
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A second adjustment made to the emission inventory was to account for the federal effort to
reduce carbon tetrafluoride emissions from the aluminum industry. This effort is part of
President Clinton's U.S. Climate Change Action Plan. The
federal government is developing emission reduction targets
in partnership with the aluminum industry. To meet these
targets the industry must improve process controls to prevent
situations that produce carbon tetrafluoride from developing.
While participation in this program is voluntary, aluminum
companies are likely to join given economic benefits. The
federal government expects this effort to reduce emissions an
average of 45 percent. This lowers the carbon dioxide
equivalent emission estimate for Washington by 2 million tons
in 2010.
The final revision was to take into consideration federal
efforts to improve the efficiency of residential appliances. Appliance efficiency mandates are
part of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act and its amendments. The Act legislatively sets
efficiency standards for thirteen categories of household appliances and establishes a schedule
for the Department of Energy (DOE) to revise those standards. DOE has tightened the efficiency
standards for clothes washers, dishwashers, and clothes dryers, furnaces, refrigerators, and
freezers. DOE also proposed more stringent standards for room air conditioners, water heaters,
direct heating equipment, mobile home furnaces, kitchen ranges and ovens, pool heaters and
television sets (59 FR 10464). Finally, DOE issued an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking
regarding dishwashers, clothes washers and clothes dryers efficiency (59 FR 56423). Ciliano
projects that together these efficiency improvements will reduce the residential electricity
demand by 18 percent and natural gas consumption by 13 percent. Based on these estimates,
2010 greenhouse gas emissions from the residential sector were revised downward by 1.8
million tons.
REDUCTION STRATEGIES
Table 5 clearly illustrates that no single activity in Washington dominates greenhouse gases
emissions. Therefore, no single measure can stabilize this state's contribution to global climate
change. Significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will require a broad range of
mitigation programs. This report reviews 49 potential greenhouse gas mitigation programs.
Criteria important to the evaluation of greenhouse gas mitigation programs are:
• Flexibility. The timing and effects of climate change are uncertain. Therefore, a greenhouse
gas mitigation program needs to succeed under a variety of conditions. For example,
chlorofluorocarbons were once thought to significantly contribute to the earth's global
warming potential; a conclusion now discredited. As a result, a mitigation strategy that
relied solely on the international agreement to ban chlorofluorocarbon production would be a
failure. A flexible mitigation strategy will allow mid-course refinements to adapt to our
evolving understanding about climate. Therefore, it is important to understand the flexibility
of each potential mitigation strategy.
• Economic efficiency. Washington state faces a wide range of social needs and desires as we
approach the twenty-first century. These needs include, for example, health care, education,
public safety, infrastructure upgrades, the arts and the environment. Given these competing
interests and the limited moneys available, it makes sense to adopt the cost effective
Aluminum Industry Emissions
Aluminum refining requires removing the
oxygen from alumina (AI2O3). To
accomplish this, an electrical current is
passed through an alumina/fluorine salt
bath (between carbon electrodes). This
separates and removes the oxygen.
However, if the alumina level falls too low,
the salt bath begins to decompose. In such
an event, fluorine from the salt reacts with
the carbon electrode to create carbon
tetrafluoride compounds.
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Global Warming Action Plan
mitigation programs; programs that eliminate the most greenhouse gas for the least cost. One
sub-category of strategies are those with no net cost. Their energy savings more than offset
their costs. These are often referred to as "no regrets" options.
• Other Benefits. This criteria is closely related to Economic Efficiency. Mitigation strategies
can often meet societal goals beyond limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Actions that
improve social welfare, enhance environmental quality, increase employment, or enhance
food security fall under this category. For example, efforts to reduce motor vehicle use also
help reduce congestion and lower the trade deficit by limiting the need for foreign crude oil.
Similarly, improvements in energy efficiency may increase employment (Laitner). A virtue
of such greenhouse gas mitigation policies is that they generate benefits even if the risk of
climate change turns our to be less serious than presently thought.
• Feasibility. Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies must be consistent with legal, political, and
societal realities. The optimal strategy is irrelevant if it exceeds the bounds of political
acceptability. For example, while we report the potential for significant carbon dioxide
reductions from increasing the gasoline tax by $1.00 per gallon, the likelihood that such a tax
would be enacted is very small.
This report targets the residential, commercial, industrial, transportationsectors, and electricity
production assuming that these activities with the highest emissions will yield the largest
reductions. However, we avoid programs clearly outside the authority of Washington policy
makers to implement, such as automobile fuel efficiency standards. Further, only presently
available technologies are considered. While some developing technologies promise
substantially lower emissions (e.g., hydrogen powered vehicles) solutions to their remaining
technical difficulties or high cost may prove elusive.
In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, there is often overlap between and among these sectors.
For example, little is gained (in terms of greenhouse gas emissions) from reduced residential
electricity use if the electricity supply is from a renewable resource. Also, telecommuting
reduces the benefits of car pooling somewhat. Therefore, please note that emission reduction
estimates presented herein are not additive.
The number of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies reviewed for this report prevented a highly
detailed review of each potential program. Therefore, the estimated emission reductions and
costs only identify the most promising programs. Any effort to implement these programs
should begin with a more detailed analysis of their cost and potential emission reductions. Part
of this detailed analysis must include estimates about the marginal generating resource, the price
of fossil fuels and the efficiencies of fuel using items. Some of the more general assumptions
used for this report are:
Marginal Resource Generating Carbon Dioxide Fuel Price Interest Line Loss
Efficiency Emissions Natural Gas Electricity Rate
Combined Cycle 50% 365.7 g/kWh $2.5/MBtu 30 mills/kWh 5% 10%
Combustion Turbine 0.81 lbs/kWh
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Finally, choosing a policy instrument to implement a greenhouse gas mitigation program is also
extremely important. Generally, policy instruments fall into three areas:
1. Economic Incentives—direct taxes granting or eliminating tax breaks, subsidies, granting of
regulatory exemptions, making pricing more efficient;
2. Public Investment—research and development, education, new infrastructure, maintenance
of existing infrastructure, also withholding investment in greenhouse gas generating
activities; and
3. Regulation—efficiency standards, zoning, building codes, fuel use requirements, speed
limits, and travel restrictions.
The Residential Sector
The residential sector is a large source of carbon dioxide emissions; almost 10 million tons per
year in 1990 rising to nearly 13 million tons in 2010. Sheer increases in the number of people
and households underlie much of this growth. Technological improvements and building
efficiency codes—such as the Washington State building energy code—help limit growth in this
area. Indeed Byers estimates that by the year 2005, Washington's current energy code will
annually reduce carbon dioxide emission by some 3.3 million tons over what they otherwise
would have been. Nevertheless, as discussed below, considerable potential remains to further
improve energy efficiency in the residential sector and thereby reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Space Heat In New Construction. Washington has a long and active history with residential
energy codes. First adopted in 1977, the energy codes were upgraded in 1980, 1986, and again
in 1991.23 The present code divides the state into two climate zones: zone 1 encompasses the
western and southern portions of the state while zone 2 covers the northeast.24
WSEO recently contracted with Ecotope, Inc. to analyze the cost and energy savings of code
upgrades. Modifying this analysis for carbon dioxide emission reductions reveals that the
current residential energy code already employs most cost-effective conservation measures. (See
Tables B-3 and B-4 in Appendix B) However, upgrading to class 35 windows (e.g., windows
with an insulation value of U-3.5) is cost-effective—the energy expenditure savings exceed the
cost of the upgraded windows. The per house annual carbon dioxide emissions reductions from
upgrade measures is presented in Table 6. However, the model home that serves as the basis for
23 In a recent assessment of state energy codes the Alliance to Save Energy, an energy-efficiency advocacy group,
gave Washington's code a "B+."
24 Residential Energy Code Zones
Zone 1 clear
Zone 2 shaded
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these estimates is not typical of new residential construction.25 The average home constructed in
Washington is 57 percent larger than this "standard" house. Assuming that energy consumption
is directly proportional to square footage, the carbon dioxide reduction estimates in Table 6 were
scaled by 1.57.
Table 6
Annual per House Carbon Dioxide Reduction in tons
Zone
Natural Gas
Electric
Zone 1
.505
.134
Zone 2
.567
.187
To project the 2010 carbon dioxide benefits of this code upgrade requires estimates of future
home construction rates and the proportion of new homes heated with natural gas and electricity.
This report assumes 1992 and 1993 residential construction rates continue through 2010 (18,000
units per year in zone 1 and 2400 units per year in zone 2). Also assumed is that 36 percent of
new homes will use natural gas heat (the current rate). Based on these assumptions an emission
reduction of about 106.000 tons per year in 2010 of carbon dioxide is estimated to result from
upgrading the residential energy codes to class 35 windows for new construction (see table B-5).
A cost effectiveness estimate was not calculated since the aggregate energy costs savings are
greater than the added home construction costs.
Space Heat In Existing Homes. Another potentially large source of carbon dioxide emission
reductions is improving insulation in existing homes. Nationally, the residential sector has
experienced an impressive improvement in energy efficiency; between 1978 and 1990, energy
consumption fell by more than 1 quadrillion Btu (Bisio). Over this period the energy intensity of
new living space has decreased and many older units were retrofitted with energy saving
measures. However, a sizable gap remains between potential and actual energy efficiency.
Many of the available energy saving measures are clearly cost-effective (in some cases the pay
back period is as short as two years). The 1990 National Energy Strategy and a survey by the
Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) offers some insight on why the public has not
enthusiastically adopted these measures.
1 Traditional energy rate setting does not reflect the full costs to society of energy use. Thus
individual consumers undervalue energy efficiency investments and renewable resources.
2 Failure of market mechanisms to induce adoption of economical energy saving measures by
residential customers, particularly in situations where those who pay for such devices cannot
expect any economic benefits.
3 First-cost bias tendency of buyers (especially builders and home buyers) to minimize up front
costs of residential property and major appliances.
4 Mortgage lending practices that fail to consider the lower total cost of energy saving homes in
calculating mortgage eligibility.
5 Low incomes of some energy users that often make them unable to finance energy efficiency
improvements no matter what the payback period.
6 Absence of credible data on reliability and costs of energy saving technologies for builders,
architects, utility programs, mortgage lenders, and individual consumers.
25 This "standard" home is a three bedroom, two bathroom, one-level rambler with 1344 square feet of living space.
The Northwest Power Planning Council established this home as the "standard" in the 198_ power plan.
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7 Fragmented and cyclical nature of home building industry that contributes to a reluctance to try
innovative energy saving designs, products, and construction techniques and makes concerted
industry led efficiency initiatives unlikely.
8 Inadequate implementation and enforcement of resources to check actual plans and construction
sites and to educate builders.
9 Inadequate energy efficiency investments in public sector housing because many local housing
authorities lack funds and management incentives to improve efficiency.
10 Slow turnover of residential structures, heating and cooling systems, and household appliances.
11 Energy costs represent a relatively low proportion of total costs (about 1 percent of salary costs in
a typical office).
12 Energy efficiency is often (mis)perceived as requiring sacrifice, limiting its appeal.
The large inventory of homes in Washington, especially those built before the 1970s when
building energy codes began and insulation practices became more common (Table 7) provide
large opportunities for energy saving measures.
Table 7
Existing Homes in Washington State*
Year built
Zone 1
Zone 2
1989 to March 1990
40,528
1,635
1985 to 1988
116,030
8,091
1980 to 1984
115,276
11,621
1970 to 1979
224,225
38,224
1960 to 1969
186,876
16,177
1950 to 1959
127,573
26,395
1940 to 1949
87,998
16,184
1939 or earlier
161,621
31,778
Total
1,060,127
150,105
From 1990 US Census data
Existing Electrically Heated Homes. The Northwest Power Planning Council (NWPPC)
prepares a Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan at approximately five year intervals.
The 1991 Plan analyzed the cost and energy savings potential of several retrofit measures to
improve the energy efficiency of existing electrically heated residences (using the "standard"
1344 square feet entry level home). For both zones it is clearly cost effective to insulate the
ceiling and crawl space to an R-19 level and exterior walls to an R-l 1 level (see Table B - 6).
These measures are estimated to lower per house carbon dioxide emissions by 17.4 tons in zone
1 and 24.2 tons in zone 2.
Two assumptions are central in estimates of the aggregate emission reductions available from
these measures. First, 10 percent of homes built before 1970 are considered retrofit candidates.
Second, the model home is thought to reasonably represent older homes which tend to be smaller
than the current building practices. Finally, electricity is presumed to heat 50 percent of existing
homes in zone 1 and 41 percent of homes in zone 2 (1990 US census data). With the
assumptions mentioned above, the carbon dioxide reductions from these retrofit insulation
measures are 815.000 tons in 2010 (see Table B - 6). These measures save more money then
they cost. Therefore, a cost per ton of carbon dioxide control calculation was not performed.
Existing Natural Gas Heated Homes. About the same time the NWPPC studied electrically
heated homes, the Washington State Energy Office conducted a study of the potential to reduce
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energy consumption in homes heated with natural gas (Byers). However, one difference
between the two bodies of work was the model home analyzed. The WSEO report modeled a
1600 square foot, single story ranch style home for western Washington [zone 1], The eastern
Washington [zone 2] prototype had 1350 square feet and was modeled with both a full basement
and a crawl space.
Updating the energy savings and costs estimates of the WSEO report revealed several cost
effective carbon dioxide control measures (see Table B-7). For both zones it is cost effective to
install low-flow shower heads and vent dampers, to insulate exterior walls to an R-l 1 level and
floors to an R-l9 level (obviously for homes without basements). Additional reasonable
measures in zone 2 include insulating ceilings to an R-38 level and duct work. These measures
all cost less than $10 per ton of carbon dioxide control and many even save money (including
natural gas pipeline capacity savings). On a per house basis, these measures are estimated to
lower annual carbon dioxide emissions by 3.1 tons in zone 1 and 3.8 tons in zone 2.
Two assumptions are central in estimates of the aggregate emission reductions available from
these measures. First, 10 percent of homes built before 1970 are considered retrofit candidates.
Second, the model home is thought to reasonably represent older homes which tend to be smaller
than the current building practices. Finally, natural gas is presumed to heat 27 percent of
existing homes in zone 1 and 32 percent of homes in zone 2 (1990 US census data). With the
assumptions mentioned above, the carbon dioxide reductions from these retrofit insulation
measures are 81.000 tons in 2010 (see Table B-8). Like the retrofit measures for existing
electrically heated homes, these measures save more money then they cost. Therefore, a cost per
ton of carbon dioxide control calculation was not performed.
New Consumer Appliances. Improving the energy efficiency of new consumer appliances to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions is one area unlikely to need additional effort by the state. As
stated above, the federal Energy Policy and Conservation Act and its amendments established
efficiency standards for several appliance categories and directs DOE to periodically review and
revise those standards as appropriate. These federal appliance efficiency efforts are projected to
reduce overall residential electricity demand by 18 percent and natural gas consumption by
13 percent (Ciliano). Based on these reductions, by the year 2010, this program is projected to
annually lower green house gas emissions by 1.8 million tons in Washington state.
Direct Use Of Natural Gas. Another means to reduce carbon dioxide emissions is to use
energy in the most thermodynamically efficient way possible. Directly using natural gas for
space and/or water heat rather than in a combustion turbine to supply electricity for space and
water heat improves thermodynamic efficiency. The energy content of electricity delivered to a
home from a combined cycle combustion turbine is only about 45 percent of natural gas fuel. In
contrast, a home furnace typically uses 80 percent of the energy in natural gas to heat the
residence.26 Converting existing homes to natural gas space and/or water heat is usually referred
to as "fuel conversion."
To determine the potential for fuel conversion, one must compare the economic costs of both
natural gas and electric power—the original fuel source, transmission cost and conversion losses
—to produce hot water or temperature controlled space heat. A NWPPC study (1994) found that
natural gas could cost-effectively displace the need for about 700 megawatts of electricity by
26 To be fair, other considerations are also important such as the efficiency at which electricity is converted to
useful home heat, duct and flue losses of natural gas systems, characteristics of the heat desired and the energy
needed to bring the natural gas to the home.
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Current Fuel Conversion
A BPA survey of the region (Oregon,
Washington, Idaho) indicate that about
28,000 single family homes switched to
natural gas heating fuel from electricity in
1992. Western Washington and Oregon
accounted for 77 percent of the reported
conversions.
In a 1992 survey, the Association of
Northwest Gas Utilities in cooperation with
NWPPC found 15,000 conversion of space
heat, 19,000 conversions of water heat for a
total of almost 27,000 new gas conversion
customers.
accounts for about 5 percent of the residential sector's electricity use. Region wide this
amounted to 290 aMW in 1989; Washington state demand amounts to about 175 average
megawatts. Compact fluorescent bulbs use about 25 percent of the electricity of incandescent
lights. State demand could fall by as much as 130 megawatts with a fluorescent for incandescent
bulb replacement program. (Losing the secondary heat effect of incandescent bulbs somewhat
increases space heat energy needs and decrease space cooling energy needs.) This translates in
to a potential greenhouse gas emission reduction of 460.000 tons per year.
Some of this potential reduction will not be realized as it is not cost effective to install expensive
fluorescent bulbs for limited use. Lesser concluded that utilization rates must exceed 5 hours per
day for fluorescent bulbs to yield positive net benefits from a consumers' perspective. However,
from a societal perspective (includes the benefits of reducing pollution and long-term avoided
costs of new generating resources) Lesser found fluorescent bulbs cost effective at usage levels
as little as 1.2 hours per day. This disconnect between consumer and societal benefits provides
an opportunity for policy efforts to promote the fluorescent bulbs.
A number of program's around the county attempt to induce a demand for residential fluorescent
lighting products. Madison Gas and Electric established its residential lighting program in 1990.
Madison's goals were many: to educate and motivate customers to purchase high-efficiency
lighting products, to create a stable demand for energy efficient products, to support rather than
compete with local business, and to achieve the maximum energy savings at the lowest possible
cost. Madison gave customers coupons to use at participating stores to purchase energy efficient
products at discount prices. After a year of relatively high start-up costs, the cost of this program
is on the order of 30 mills per kWh (The Results Center)—similar to the marginal cost of new
generation.
The Burlington Electric Department, a municipal utility in Burlington Vermont, operates another
interesting program. The "Smartlight" program leases customers compact fluorescent lamps at
a cost of $0.20 per bulb per month. Returning the bulbs in any condition (e.g., broken or burned
out bulbs or simply customer dissatisfaction) terminates the lease. The program also allows
customers a two month break-in period before lease fees start. Burlington found this "break-in"
to be an important promotional option giving customers time to assess the quality of fluorescent
light. After three years, 2,375 customers had signed up for the "Smartlight" program. They
annually save 108,000 kWh of electricity. Assuming a marginal price for electricity at 0.035 per
kWh, this program cost about $750 per ton of carbon dioxide control. However, one would
2010 and lower natural gas use by 6 to 8 trillion Btu per year.
Such a change would lower the region's carbon dioxide
emissions 360,000 to 480,000 tons per year. Washington
state accounts for about 60 percent of this reduction, or
215.000 to 290.000 tons.
Presently, a fair amount of fuel conversion is already taking
place due to perceived price/quality benefits. State
encouragement of additional conversion would necessarily
entail a political decision to favor the natural gas industry
over the electric industry. This encouragement could be
direct such as regulatory mandates or more subtle such as tax
breaks for conversion expenses.
Residential Lighting. According to the NWPPC, lighting
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expect considerable economies of scale with this program; the cost effectiveness should improve
with increased participation.
It is difficult at this point to estimate the emission reduction potential or cost-effectiveness of a
fluorescent light promotion program. Much depends on how the program is run and who it
targets. Generally speaking high cost is the largest obstacle to wide-spread use of fluorescent
lights. Efforts to reduce these costs to consumers significantly affect compact fluorescent bulb
penetration and use.
Geothermal Heat Pumps. Geothermal energy is one of the cleaner forms of energy available in
commercial quantities. In terms of climate change, the benefit of geothermal is that it displaces
technologies that emit greenhouse gases. Geothermal energy provides an enormous resource for
low-temperature applications such as space heating and cooling in residential and commercial
structures.
For the residential sector, geothermal energy is typically
extracted with ground source heat pumps and is used for
space heating. According to Reed the need for electrical
generation capacity is reduced by 2 to 5 kW for each
residential installation of a ground source heat pump.
Assuming a 30 percent capacity demand factor for electricity,
ground source heat pumps should annually reduce per house
electricity demand by 5,250 to 13,140 kWhs.
A program to that equips 10 percent of all new homes in
Washington with ground source heat pumps would lower
electricity demand by 323,062 to 129,225 MWhs in the year
2010. As a result, carbon dioxide emissions would fall
130,000 to 52,000 tons.
An absence of information on the cost of ground source heat
pumps prevented estimating the cost-effectiveness of this
measure as a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) reports
that "in most parts of the country... [ground source heat
pumps] offer homeowners and building owners the lowest
life-cycle cost for heating and cooling. " Despite this advantage, ground source heat pumps
command less than one-half of one percent of the space conditioning market. To expand market
share GAO recommends: programs to educate the public about ground source heat pumps;
efforts to reduce installation costs; and state and utility conservation programs that promote
greater use of energy-efficient technologies.
The Commercial Sector
Washington State's commercial sector is projected to annually release over 9 million tons of
carbon dioxide by 2010. Almost 85 percent of these emissions result from electricity and natural
gas consumption. Technology improvements and building efficiency codes will help to limit
emissions somewhat. However, considerable potential remains to further reduce commercial
energy consumption and thereby reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Ground Source Heat Pumps
Heat pumps in general are highly efficient
since they "transfer" heat rather than
"create" heat from a combustion process.
Ground source heat pumps enjoy extra
advantage of stable source/sink
temperatures (the ground). In the Pacific
Northwest, temperatures of the ground stay
within a few degrees of 55°F throughout
the year. Ground source heat pumps use
this temperature reservoir as a heat source
during winter heating and a heat sink
during summer cooling. As a result,
ground source heat pumps use 23 to 44
percent less electricity than their air-
coupled cousins and 63 to 72 percent less
electricity compared to electric resistance
heating (Reed). Further, Gilli concludes
that application of heat pumps where
economic could reduce global CO2
emissions by 4.2 percent.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Unfortunately, sector wide estimates of greenhouse gas reduction potential is problematic due to
a wide variety of building types27 and a paucity of information about how efficiently they use
energy. Therefore, this report uses national estimates of energy end-uses and efficiencies to
estimate potential carbon dioxide emission reductions. Table 8 presents estimates of the
potential energy savings from efficiency improvements for several energy end-uses. The energy
efficiency measures come from the OTA report Building Energy Efficiency and are ascribed to
have saved more money in reduced energy expenditures than they cost. However, a lack of cost
data prevents detailed cost-effectiveness calculations.
Table 8
Energy Consumption by End Use+
Energy End
Use
Space Heating
Lighting
Space Cooling
Food Storage
Water Heating
Other
Proportion of
Total Energy Use
0.32
0.28
0.16
0.5
0.4
0.15
Energy Use
quads
0.1296
0.1134
0.0648
0.0203
0.0162
0.0608
Potential Energy
Reduction
percent
?
40
?
23
?
?
Reduction in
Carbon Dioxide
Emissions
millions of tons
5.40
0.55
1 1988 national energy use averages and potential energy improvement estimates from Building Energy Efficiency,
OTA, 1992. Given the mild summers typical of the Pacific Northwest it is likely that Washington has a lower space
cooling energy expenditure than the national average. Assume a 2010 Commercial sector energy consumption of
0.405 quadrillion Btu (from Supplement to Annual Energy Outlook, 1993, Energy Information Agency). Carbon
dioxide reduction estimates assume that the energy savings displace electricity from a natural gas fired combustion
turbine rather than a hydro electric dam.
Space Conditioning needs in commercial buildings is usually load dominated, meaning that it
arises as a result of activity within the building rather than from ambient conditions outside the
structure. Unfortunately, the diversity of buildings makes it difficult to generalize about the
energy savings potential. Therefore, specific energy improvements were not assessed. Types of
activities that can improve commercial building space conditioning efficiencies include:
improved efficiency of energy-using devices (OTA reports that the typical commercial gas furnace
is about 70 percent efficient while newer high-efficiency units achieve 90 percent efficiency)
improved system design and system controls;
switching to a more efficient system (a heat pump rather than electric resistance heat);
improved system maintenance; and
reduced internal system "loads" (e.g., switching to fluorescent lights to lower the need for space
cooling).
Lighting consumes about 41 percent of the commercial sector electricity load (28 percent of
total energy load). The opportunities for improved lighting efficiency are considerable.
Commercially available technologies could lower lighting electrical use 40 percent. Other
Energy Consumption of Different Commercial Building Types
Building Type
Proportion of Energy Use
Building Type
Proportion of Energy Use
Office
23
Food
9
Retail/Service
21
Assembly
9
Warehouse
10
Health Care
7
Education
10
t From Building Energy Efficiency, OTA, 1992.
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potential efficiencies improvements include: fluorescent lamps (-15 percent), ballasts (20-
25 percent), lighting fixtures (up to 50 percent) and lighting controls switches(~20 percent).
Commercial Food Refrigeration systems move heat from one place to another. Energy
efficiency opportunities include reducing the amount of heat to be moved. Plastic strips on
supermarket refrigerated display cases reduce energy use 15 to 45 percent, for example. Glass
doors lower energy use 30 to 60 percent. Improvements to the refrigeration system offers large
energy savings. Multiple compressors in parallel reduce energy use 13 to 27 percent. Tuning
the compressor pressure to ambient conditions (rather than for the hottest day) lowers energy
demand by over 20 percent. Variable speed drives for the compressors also save energy. Heat
recovery devises which capture waste heat from refrigeration system for use as space heat also
improve efficiency. One side-by-side test of conventional and advanced commercial
refrigeration systems revealed a 23 percent energy savings for the advanced system.
Water Heating The methods and systems used for heating water in commercial buildings vary
widely as do the options for efficiency improvements. Demand reductions include leak repair,
restrictors and reduced temperature settings. System retrofits include tank insulation, electronic
ignition, electric flue dampers and boiler tune-ups. New commercial water heating technologies
include the use of heat pumps, heat recovery devices, and other methods for integrating water
heating into other heating and cooling systems. The overall energy efficiency improvement
resulting from such changes is uncertain.
Incentives for Energy Efficiency One innovative commercial sector DSM program is run by
the Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSG&E) of New Jersey which pays participants
for energy savings based on utility time-of-day and seasonal costs. The primary objective of the
Standard Offer program is to avoid the need for new power plant capacity. To participate, the
commercial entity must save 100 kW of electricity during the "Summer Prime Period" and/or
25,000 therms of natural gas during the peak gas period. The Standard Offer contract also
includes penalties for failure to produce the promised energy savings by the agreed to timeline.
The basic mechanism to participate in the Standard Offer Program is as follows:
• Initial Commitment: A customer commits to specific energy savings for a certain number of years.
• Project Qualification: A third-party analyzes the facility's operating characteristics and proposed
efficiency measures to ensure the Standard Offer project is technically and economically feasible.
• Investment Grade Inventory: A detailed inventory of customer facilities is performed to
comprehensively identify existing energy-consuming equipment and to recommend specific
efficiency measures. This inventory outlines the costs, revenues, and energy savings of the project.
Results of the inventory serve as a basis to evaluate the project's energy savings on an ongoing basis.
• Proposal to PSE&G: A proposal is submitted to the utility outlining the project key elements and
scope of work. This proposal includes a daily and seasonal schedule of energy savings.
• PSE&G Sign Off: Once PSE&G accepts a project proposal, the seller of savings executes a
Standard Offer energy savings agreement with PSE&G. Contract terms are 5, 10, or 15 years.
• Construction: The seller installs the new efficiency equipment. The seller notifies PSE&G when
construction is 50% complete. Upon completion, the seller submits a report to PSE&G describing the
installation and any deviations from the original project proposal. The seller also performs a post-
implementation audit, which includes a visual inspection of all areas and systems associated with the
project, and measurement of the power of a representative sample of circuits.
• Ongoing Obligations: Savings are monitored on a regular basis to ensure that contract terms are
met. The seller bills PSE&G for energy savings on a monthly basis. All obligations of the seller
extend for the life of the Standard Offer Contract. An increase or decrease in the hours of operation
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Global Warming Action Plan
results in higher or lower payments from PSE&G. However, there are some limitations and payment
restrictions for increased hours and some penalties for decreased hours.
• Utility Fees: The party selling energy savings to PSE&G pays certain fees to the utility, including
audit fees; a $l/kW fee when a proposal is submitted, a damage deposit at around $70/kW to ensure a
project is completed on schedule; and monthly administrative fees.
• Ongoing Auditing: Throughout the development and following completion of a Standard Offer
project, ongoing energy savings measurement and verification is required of the seller. PSE&G may
send auditors on site to monitor its progress. The first audit is performed once a proposal is submitted
and sets the baseline of pre-construction. Auditors verify compliance with the project proposal and
determine the new energy consumption levels. If savings fall below contract specified levels, PSE&G
reduces the payments to the seller and may assess additional penalties.
The goal of the standard offer program is to save 60-70 MW of electricity. PSE&G has not
established specific goals for natural gas savings. Total annual savings for the program through
December 15, 1994 are 58.5 MW and 209,800 MWh. The annualized cost to the utility of
projects approved by the utility is nearly $10 million. Assuming the program saves 60 MW per
year over a six-year period, the utility would save approximately $600 million.28
Public Sector Commercial Buildings. A subset of commercial buildings are those owned and
operated by the public sector. Under contract to the WSEO, Ecotope assessed the potential for
improving the energy efficiency of the many types of public buildings. The results of that study
are presented in Table 9. The last column presents estimates of the carbon dioxide reduction
available from each facility type. In all cases the efficiency measures pay for themselves
through reduced energy expenditures. Therefore, a cost-effectiveness of carbon dioxide control
was not calculated. Complete implementation of all cost effective measures identified by
Ecotope is estimated to lower carbon dioxide emissions by almost 0.44 million tons in 2010.
The conservation measures analyzed included lighting (the use of more efficient light equipment
and controls that reduce hours of operation), heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems
(improved efficiency systems, improved controls and operation), building envelope (install
higher insulating windows), and improved appliances (low-flow faucets).
Table 9
Estimated Carbon Dioxide Reduction Potential From Public Sector Facilities*
Facility Type Square Feet
Annual Energy
Savings
Cost
Carbon Dioxide
Reduction
millions
MWh
Therms
millions of $
tons
Office
24.4
149.7
46.9
32.7
64,381
Schools
129.0
307.8
1299.5
72.4
228,619
Residential
10.7
31.5
266.7
9.2
34,094
Health Care
7.5
35.0
433.4
8.0
48,847
Recreation and Parks
7.0
44.3
148.0
8.4
29,782
Jails/Prisons
6.9
34.8
(190.1)
8.4
(1,114)
Storage
5.3
3.2
6.1
0.6
1,784
Warehouse and Shop
25.9
10.8
--
1.6
4,374
Water and Wastewater
0.9
65.1
7.4
14.5
26,958
Total
682.2
2017.9
155.8
43 ¦'.¦'23
t Energy Conservation in Public Buildings, Ecotope, 1990
The Industrial Sector
28 The costs and energy savings estimates are from Public Service Electric & Gas, Standard Offer Program, The
Results Center, Number 96. These numbers have not been verified by independent analysis.
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Global Warming Action Plan
The Industrial sector is a significant source of carbon dioxide in Washington State. The
industrial sector released an estimated 18.3 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 1990
and is projected to emit 24.1 million tons in 2010. This sector provides broad opportunities to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, few industry wide greenhouse gas control programs
are available due to the diverse nature of industrial activities and differences in production
techniques, processes and fuels used within the same industry. Moreover, the current state of
industrial energy efficiency in Washington is far from certain. Given these problems this report
follows two tacks. First, efficiency improvements identified by the NWPPC in its preparation of
the upcoming Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan are described. Then this report
considers efficiency improvement measures available for certain large industries.
Industrial Electricity Efficiencies Identified By The Northwest Power Planning Council. In
preparation for the upcoming plan the NWPPC estimated the amount of cost-effective
conservation energy savings available from the industrial sector. The energy savings estimates
for ten large conservation measures are listed in Table 10. Implementation of these measures is
estimated to reduce regional electricity demand by approximately 830 average MW of which
about 500 MW is located in Washington state.29 These savings would reduce annual carbon
dioxide emissions by some 1,764,000 tons in Washington and reduce costs to industry.
Table 10
Electricity Energy Savings Potential in the Industrial Sector*
Conservation Item Cost (mills) Energy Savings
(aMW)
Replace inlet vanes on air drying fans with a variable speed
18
6
Downsize motor to better match load
6
24
Install unloading valve and accumulator for hydraulic pumps
2.1
27
Replace fluorescent lamps with high-efficiency fluorescent lamps
23
28
(e.g., 75 watt to 60 watt)
Install an electronic variable speed drive to better control motors
18
31
subject to varying load conditions (5-20 hp)
Install variable speed drive to replace throttling device to correct
10
34
for pump over capacity
Equip air compressors with unloading kites to reduce demand
1.4
39
during idle periods.
Install an electronic variable speed drive to better control motors
15
44
subject to varying load conditions (21-50 hp)
Install oversize piping to lower friction/pressure losses
33
64
Install an electronic variable speed drive to better control motors
14
111
subject to varying load conditions (51-125 hp)
Downsize pumps to better match loads (e.g., from 10 to 5 hp)
4
117
Install an electronic variable speed drive to better control motors
3
308
Total
833
From the NWPPC Industrial subcommittee. Conservation RcsourccAdvisorv Committee
29 According to BPA sales data, Washington accounts for about 60 percent of the regional electricity demand.
60 percent of 830 MW is approximately 500 MW. More recent NWPPC estimates target 500 MW of conservation
from the industrial sector. All t this conservation costs less than $0,025 per kWh and a significant portion comes in
at less than $0,010 per kWh.
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Global Warming Action Plan
As stated above, estimating the energy efficiency
improvement potential for Washington's industrial sector is
extraordinarily difficult. The energy consumption of various
industrial sectors is not known nor is data available on the
current state of energy efficiency. To establish baseline
energy consumption levels for various industrial sectors,
NWPPC projections for 2010 industrial electricity
consumption (medium estimate) were melded with data from
the 1982 census of industrial energy use. Further, efficiencies
of Washington industries were assumed comparable to
current national averages. The accuracy of these data and
assumptions are questionable and therefore the carbon
dioxide reduction estimates should be considered preliminary.
Petroleum Refining On average about 600,000 Btu are used to process a barrel of crude oil into
its various products.30 The most energy intensive steps are the reorganization and distillation
processes while the largest energy loss in the refining process occurs during final cooling of
process streams. Where feasible, the low-level heat is transferred to other process streams. The
opportunities for recovering significant amounts of low-level heat are much greater in facilities
designed to optimize heat recovery. Process heaters and steam boilers also offer opportunities
for reducing energy use.
Distillation is the primary process for breaking down crude oil into its constituent hydrocarbons.
Crude oil is fed into heated distillation columns where the lighter hydrocarbons vaporize and are
removed. Light end fractions such as propane and butane come off the top, Napthas, kerosene,
heating oil, diesel fuel, and heavy gas oil are tapped successively lower on the distillation
column. Heavy products that do not vaporize are removed from the bottom of the column.
Separation accounts for 23 percent of the energy used in refining. State-of the art technologies
such as vapor recompression, staged crude preheating, and air condensers can reduce energy use
in distillation by 55 percent.
Hydrocarbon cracking is used to convert heavier, low value hydrocarbons into lighter high value
ones. Cracking—breaking apart the hydrocarbon chains to decrease their size—is carried out by
catalytic processes (to produce gasoline), hydrocracking processes (to produce gasoline and
aviation jet fuel) and thermal processes (to process low-grade residual oils). Cracking accounts
for 13 percent of the energy used in refining. State-of-the-art technologies such as fluid coking
to gasification, mechanical vacuum pumps, and hydraulic turbine power recovery can reduce
conversion energy use by about 16 percent.
Two other areas of crude oil processing offer little potential for improved efficiency. Finishing,
17 percent of energy consumption, removes detrimental components from petroleum products.
Reforming, 29 percent of energy used in refining, raises octane levels.
Adoption of currently available state-of-the-art technologies can reduce energy consumption in
the petroleum sector by about one-third; to about 400,000 Btu per barrel of crude oil. Overall,
the 2010 energy consumption by the petroleum refining industry in Washington is estimated at
990 million kWh of electricity and 10,300 million Btu of fossil fuels. Assuming efficiency
30 The information on the energy efficiency improvement potential of petroleum refining, pulp and paper, aluminum
production, Portland cement manufacturing and glass making came from an OTA report Industrial Energy
Efficiency.
Industrial Energy Efficiency
U.S. industries have greatly improved their
energy efficiency. Industrial sector energy
consumption declined 10 percent Between
1973 and 1990, concurrent with a
30 percent growth in output. New
equipment usually has an efficiency
advantage over old equipment. Therefore,
replacing old or obsolete equipment
generally improves efficiency. Even
absent major public policy changes, OTA
predicts a 1.2 percent annual gain in
industrial efficiency,
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Global Warming Action Plan
improvements decrease these energy levels by 33 percent, carbon dioxide emissions would fall
by 133.900 tons. Unfortunately, information on how much these technologies cost is lacking.
Therefore, a carbon dioxide reduction cost effectiveness was not estimated for this industry.
Pulp And Paper Paper mills process cellulose fibers into paper products. There are five
principle steps in paper production: wood preparation; pulping, bleaching, chemical recovery
and paper making. On average about 35 million Btu are used to produce a ton of paper. Wood
preparation uses relatively little energy while pulping is energy intensive. Pulping breaks apart
the wood fibers and removes unwanted wood residues using either mechanical or chemical
processes. State-of-the-art pulping technologies such as continuous digestors, displacement
heating, anthraquinone pulping, and thermomechanical pulping with heat recovery can reduce
the energy use of this stage by about 26 percent from current average practices.
Bleaching whitens the pulps by altering and/or removing lignin, which causes the dark color of
pulp. Bleaching uses about 7 percent of the energy used in paper production. Sate-of-the-art
technologies such as displacement bleaching can reduce the energy use at this stage by
30 percent. Many paper making processes use chemicals to separate cellulose fibers.
Regenerating these chemicals for reuse is important for economic and waste disposal reasons.
Chemical recovery accounts for about 19 percent of the energy consumption. Sate-of-the-art
technologies such as displacement bleaching can reduce the energy use at this stage by about
37 percent.
Paper making is generally the last stage of paper production. It includes stock preparation, sheet
forming, pressing and drying. Paper production consumes large quantities of energy; about
38 percent of the energy used in paper making. Drying and stock preparation are the most
energy-intensive activities. State-of-the-art technologies such as top-wire formers and improved
mechanical and thermal water removal techniques can reduce the energy use of this stage by
about 32 percent.
Adoption of state-of the-art technologies in the pulp and paper industry would reduce energy
consumption by 29 percent from current average practices. Energy consumption by the pulp and
paper industry is projected at 8,921 million kWh of electricity and 54,300 million Btu of fossil
fuels in 2010. Assuming efficiency improvements decrease these energy levels 29 percent,
carbon dioxide emissions would fall by 1.049.000 tons. Again, no information on how much
these technologies might cost was found, so a carbon dioxide reduction cost effectiveness was
not estimated for this industry.
Aluminum Production Aluminum refining requires removing the oxygen from alumina
(AI2O3). To accomplish this, the alumina is dissolved in molten cryolite (Na3AlF6) in carbon
lined pots. An electrical current passed between carbon electrodes in the pot reduces the alumna
to aluminum. Smelting consumes about 65 percent of the energy used in aluminum production.
Current average smelting efficiency is about 7.3 kWh/lb. of aluminum. State-of-the-art smelters
use 6.0 to 6.5 kWh/lb., an 11 to 18 percent improvement. (Another way to reduce energy
consumption is to increase the use of recycled aluminum. Recycling requires only about 5
percent of the energy needed to produce primary aluminum from bauxite. Recycling accounts
for about one-third of U.S. aluminum production.)
Aluminum production is projected to continue to consume prodigious amounts of energy in
Washington - 18,266 million kWh of electricity and 15,200 million Btu of fossil fuels per year.
Adoption of state-of the-art technologies in the aluminum industry would reduce energy
consumption by 16 percent from current average practices. Such savings would lower carbon
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Global Warming Action Plan
dioxide emissions resulting from this industrial sector by 1.183.800 tons. However, we have no
information on how much these technologies might cost so we cannot estimate a cost
effectiveness of carbon dioxide reduction for the aluminum industry.31
Portland Cement is the bonding agent that holds aggregate and sand together to form concrete.
The raw materials for Portland cement are limestone, silica sand, alumina and iron ore. These
materials are crushed and mixed together, and then burned at high temperatures « 2,800°F. This
sinters and partially fusses the materials in marble-sized pellets known as clinker. The clinker is
ground into a powder and mixed with gypsum. The main processes involved with Portland
cement manufacture are raw materials preparation, clinker production and finish grinding.
Raw materials preparation accounts for about 8 percent of the energy used to produce Portland
cement. This step includes crushing, proportioning, drying, grinding, and blending the input
materials. Energy efficient technologies could reduce the energy use in this step by about
19 percent. Clinker production is the most energy intensive part of making Portland cement
accounting for some 80 percent of energy use. State-of-the-art technologies, such as the dry
process with either preheat or precalcine and improvements in kiln refractories, kiln combustion
and improved cooling techniques are estimated to reduce energy use in clinker production by
about 26 percent from current average practices.
Grinding the clinker into a fine powder accounts for 11 percent of the energy use in cement
production. State-of-the-art technologies, such as pre-grinding and improved classification
techniques are estimated to reduce energy use in finish grinding by about 28 percent from
current average practices. Overall, state-of-the-art technologies could reduce energy use some
28 percent in the Portland cement industry. Information on the cost of these technologies was
not uncovered so no carbon dioxide reduction cost effectiveness estimate is presented.
Glass is used to make a variety of products including: windows, windshields, jars, light bulbs,
tableware, and fiberglass. The energy used to manufacture a ton of glass averages between 15
and 27 million Btu depending on the final product. The major categories of glass making are
batch preparation, melting and refining, forming and post-forming.
Glass making begins with weighing and mixing raw materials (recycled material is crushed and
added at this stage). Batch preparation accounts for about 4 percent of the energy used in glass
production. Computer controls for weighing, mixing, and charging saves about 10 percent of the
energy used in this step. The next step in glass manufacture is melting the raw materials in
furnaces heated to 2,400 and 2,900 °F. Glass is produced in a variety of furnaces including,
regenerative, recuperative, electric, and pot. Melting and refining account for 50 to 68 percent of
the energy used to make glass. State-of-the-art technologies such as oxygen-enriched
combustion air, improved process control and better refractories can reduce the energy
consumption at this stage by an estimated 8 to 37 percent.
In glass forming, molten glass is homogenized and heat conditioned. The forming stage differs
depending on the product to be produced. Forming accounts for 12 to 33 percent of the energy
31 The carbon dioxide reduction estimates assume that the reduced energy consumption offsets the need for
electricity produced by a combustion turbine. Should the energy savings result in less hydroelectic generation, the
carbon dioxide reduction would be zero. Note that the carbon dioxide emissions for the aluminum estimated by
Kerstetter for the Washington State inventory only include greenhouse gases emitted as a result of the
manufacturing process. For example, the chemical process to produce aluminum is as follows:
2AI2O3 + 32C ->¦ 4A1 + 3CO2. Any carbon dioxide emitted as a result of supplying electricity to the aluminum
industry was not included in the Kerstetter estimate.
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Global Warming Action Plan
used in glass production. State-of-the-art forming technologies can reduce the energy used at
this stage by an estimated 10 to 20 percent. After it is formed additional postforming processes
are sometimes used to adjust the strength and other properties of the glass. Post forming
accounts for 11 to 18 percent of the energy used in glass production. State-of-the-art post-
forming technologies can save 11 to 28 percent of the energy relative to current practices.
State-of-the-art technologies could reduce energy consumption by 32 percent for flat glass
production, 22 percent for container glass, 17 percent for pressed and blown glass, and
12 percent for fibrous glass from current average practices in the glass industry. Information on
the cost of these technologies is not available so the cost effectiveness estimate was not
calculated. Together, the Portland cement and glass industries are estimated to consume 510
million kWh of electricity and 7,100 million Btu of fossil fuel. And together the carbon dioxide
reduction resulting from adopting state-of-the-art technologies is about 52.174 tons.
Recycling Washington state generates approximately 5.7 million tons of municipal solid waste
each year, or about 6.4 pounds per person per day. Nearly 34 percent of this waste is recycled—
the highest recycling rate in the nation. To further promote recycling, Washington set a goal of
recycling 50 percent of its waste stream (The Solid Waste Management—Reduction and
Recycling Act, RCW 70.95). Recycling offers industrial entities further opportunities to reduce
energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The energy savings expected to accrue as a
result of achieving the 50 percent recycling goal are shown in Table 11. Note that these are
incremental savings of improving on current recycling levels.
As can be seen from this table, recycling of some materials results in greater benefits than
recycling of others. In particular, metal recycling produces large energy benefits. On the other
hand, glass recycling is almost as energy intensive as production. Recycling plastic saves energy
in the forms of oil and gas and is therefore desirable. Paper recycling must be divided into Kraft
and newsprint. Newsprint recycling saves trees and fossil fuels while recycling Kraft paper
appears to save little energy. A life-cycle analysis for Kraft paper that includes production from
dedicated plantations (to save old-growth forests) and paper combustion for energy recovery
would minimize fossil fuel use as will as landfill volume (Gaines and Stodolsky).
Table 11
Energy Savings from Recycling
Commodity Recycling
Discard
Recycling
Energy
Energy Saved by
Rates,
Amounts,
needed to
Saved by
Achieving 50%
1990*
1992*
meet 50 %
Recycling
Recycling Goal
(tons)
goal (tons)
(MBtu/ton)*
(MBtu)
Glass
0.298
183,546
52,815
2
105,630
PET
0.053
14,335
6,766
66
446,556
HDPE
0.047
29,270
13,913
66
918,258
Other Plastics
0.055
359,712
169,388
49
8,300,012
Aluminum Packaging
0.632
30,439
154
0
Tin Cans (steel)
0.175
59,131
23,294
12
279,528
Kraft and Other Paper
0.500
710,808
0
0
0
Newsprint
0.444
160,960
16,212
12.2
197,786
Total
10,247,770
^ From Municipal Solid Waste in the Pacific Northwest, The Washington State Energy Office, WSEO 93-190.
From Mandate Recycling Rates: Impacts on Energy Consumption and Municipal Solid Waste Volume (Gaines).
To achieve these high recycling levels, effort is needed to overcome technical and institutional
barriers. High recycling rates require either separation of mixed waste at a central facility, or
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Global Warming Action Plan
improved source-separation procedures. Further, clean and easy to handle waste products are
probably already being recovered. Therefore, declines in material quality and increased recovery
costs will likely accompany an increase in recovery rates. Eventually, a break-even point will be
reached at which the benefits of additional recycling are outweighed by the extra cost. This
analysis does not attempt to identify this point, nor does it estimate the costs of increased
recycling rates to 50 percent. However, the energy necessary to collect sort and pre-process
recycled materials lowers the above energy savings estimates by about 8 percent. The net energy
savings from achieving a 50 percent recycle rate totals 9,248,000 MBtu. This translates into a
carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1.05 million tons per year.
It is clear from this analysis that the optimal recycling rate is not the same for every material.
Glass, for example, has a small energy benefit from recycling as does Kraft paper. On the other
end of the spectrum, aluminum generates more than half of the energy benefits from recycling
even though it makes up only a small portion of the total waste stream. As such, to achieve the
largest energy benefit, the state should concentrate its recycling efforts towards aluminum and
plastic. Of course other factors like land fill space influence recycling decisions. For example, a
trade-off between trees and fossil fuels is important to the Kraft paper recycling decision.
Clearly defined objectives are necessary for decision makers to establish appropriate recycling
goals. Finally, the option to reuse which is often overlooked, may be the best option for many
plastic and glass containers. The limits of public cooperation in this area need to be explored
through bottle deposits and other programs.
The Transportation Sector
The transportation sector is the largest source category for carbon dioxide emissions, resulting in
approximately 46 million tons in 1990 and projected at 66 million tons in 2010. An effective
greenhouse gas control program must achieve substantial reductions in this sector. However, it
will be difficult. Americans highly value the attributes of owning and operating motor cars. As
a Swedish official observed (Kempton)
"[Global warming is] a tough political problem. At its roots are the dependence of society
and its people on the cars, and the symbolic value that the car has to anyone. That's
synonymous with industrial development and all the good that this has done... the freedom
that this has createdfor ordinary people ... It's representing the good life of an industrial
society. Doing anything to that, that's killing yourselfpractically and politically.... [I]
believe that is one of the reasons why, from the political side, one would hesitate in taking
very strong actions..."
Emission reduction strategies for the transportation sector fall into four principal categories:
• Improving the fuel efficiency of new motor vehicles;
Improving the fuel efficiency of motor vehicles in-use;
Shifting to alternative fuels; and
Modifying demand (trip length, load factors, and travel modes).
New Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
The federal government is the sole regulator of motor vehicle fuel efficiency. Federal statutes
prohibit the States from establishing motor vehicle efficiency standards. Federal regulation
began in 1976 through Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) standards. When the CAFE
standards first went into effect, new vehicle average fuel efficiency was 17.2 miles per gallon
(mpg). That figure rose 10 mpg over the next ten years. Fuel efficiency levels have since
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Global Warming Action Plan
Elasticity measures consumer response to
changes in price. A price elasticity of -0.7
indicates that a 10 percent increase in price,
reduces consumption by 7 percent. The
elasticity of fuel efficiency of 0.32
indicates that consumers purchase vehicles
with a 3.2 percent higher mileage rate
when gasoline prices rise 10 percent.
stabilized at around 28 mpg.32 Proponents of fuel efficiency Elasticity
standards argue that currently available technologies could
markedly improve motor vehicle efficiency. Indeed, the
Congressional OTA reports that regulatory pressure could
raise average new car fuel efficiency by about 13 percent in
2000 and 22 percent by 2005.
In an attempt to capture some of these efficiencies, the
Administration launched the "Partnership for a New
Generation of Vehicles." One goal of this partnership is to achieve fuel efficiency improvements
of up to three times the average of Concorde/Taurus/Lumina, with equivalent customer purchase
price of today's comparable sedans by 2004. According to the Partnership, technologies with the
potential to meet program goals include: high-speed diesel engines (which includes the
development of NOx reduction catalysts and particulate traps; fuel cells, provided cost, size,
weight and fuel supply system difficulties are corrected; and, electric vehicles, though battery
technology in not expected to develop quickly enough to meet the partnership time frame. Non-
powertrain developments include: lightweight body and chassis materials (e.g., aluminum,
magnesium, metal matrix composites, high-strength steel, polymer and polymer matrix
composites) and improved design techniques (e.g., crash energy management, structural design,
and reduced aerodynamics, rolling resistance and accessory loads). While this partnership may
dramatically improve motor vehicle fuel efficiency, the federal preemption of state mandated
fuel efficiency standards precludes their further consideration here. However, there are other
avenues to improve motor vehicle fuel efficiency.
Gasoline Tax. The cost of motor vehicle travel borne by commuters (gasoline, insurance,
vehicle wear and tear) is only part of the cost to society. Other social costs, such as congestion
and environmental degradation, are not directly seen as personal costs by commuters. These
costs are estimated at over $0.10 per mile (Cameron). A gasoline tax exposes more of the actual
costs of driving to the commuter. Over the long-run commuters would respond to higher fuel
prices in two ways; they acquire more fuel efficient vehicles
and adopt behaviors which lower transportation demand, such
as moving closer to work or using alternatives to single
occupancy vehicles.
32 A debate is ongoing over the effectiveness of the CAFE standards.
While improvement in new car fuel efficiency between 1975-1986 is not
disputed, opponents to the standards point out that real gasoline prices
tripled during that period. They argue that manufactures responded to
consumer demand for high mileage vehicles in the face of rising fuel prices
(and expectations of continued price increases). On the other hand, since
gasoline only represents about 10 percent of total automobile operating
costs, fuel efficiency may not significantly influence consumers' purchasing
decisions—especially if consumers question characteristics such as comfort
and safety of a more efficient car. A survey by J.D. Power and Associates
found that fuel efficiency ranked last among 15 parameters consumers
consider when purchasing new vehicles. Thus, without outside regulatory
or financial incentives, motor vehicle fuel efficiency may not significantly
improve. Krupnick et. al. estimated the cost effectiveness of increasing the
CAFE standard to 37.5 miles per gallon at $106 per ton of carbon dioxide
reduced.
Economic Consequences of a
National Gasoline Tax
Brinner et. al. examined the economic
effects of a national gasoline tax designed
to stabilized transportation greenhouse gas
emissions ($0.45 per gallon in 2000 and
$1.30 by 2010). Compared to a "no tax"
base case, applying tax revenue solely to
deficit reduction initially lowers GNP
about 0.4 percent below the base case.
Over 10-15 years, however, GNP recovers
and then exceeds the base case. GNP
under a deficit neutral program (lower
personal income taxes offset the gasoline
tax) falls 0.4 percent under the base case
and remains 0.3 percent below over the
long term. A deficit neutral program
(lower business payroll taxes offset the
gasoline tax) follows base case GNP levels
over time. These estimates are from
macro-level models that do not account for
ancillary benefits such as reduced
congestion or air pollution.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Projections of the effect of a gasoline tax on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) requires the elasticity
of demand for both gasoline and vehicle fuel efficiency (see sidebar). However, the economic
literature reports a wide range for these elasticity estimates. In an unpublished study of the
effect of a $1.00 increase in the gasoline tax, the Washington State Department of Transportation
(WSDOT) identified a range of -0.5 to -0.8 for the long-run price elasticity of demand for
gasoline and choose -0.7. They also estimated an elasticity for automobile fuel efficiency of
0.32 (relative to the price of gasoline).
The WSDOT study projects VMT in 2010 at 64.5 billion miles under current tax rates and 55
billion miles if the gasoline tax were $1.00 per gallon higher. This estimated 9.5 billion mile
reduction in travel assumes people both drive less and purchase more fuel efficient vehicles
when faced with higher gasoline tax. The huge reduction in travel and improvement in fuel
efficiency would save 900 million gallons of gasoline and lower greenhouse gas emissions by
8.5 million tons. As Table 12 indicates, a gasoline tax would reduce emissions of other
pollutants as well.
Table 12
Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Pollution Emissions
Pollutant
Reduction (tons)T
Pollutant
Reduction (tons)T
Volatile Organic Compounds
23,661
Benzene
1,656
Carbon Monoxide
192,969
1,3 Butadiene
342
Nitrogen Oxides
21,978
Formaldehyde
195
Acetaldehyde
147
' Emission reduction estimates from the draft Ecology MS ST report.
The revenue of a $1.00 tax per gallon of gasoline totals approximately $2.1 billion in 2010.
Since these funds are available to lower other taxes or provide other services, they are not a
"cost" but instead a "transfer" as defined by economists. The cost of the tax is found in the lost
travel enjoyed by the public. Economic theory indicates a $124 million cost of reduced driving
resulting from the tax in 2010. Thus, the overall carbon dioxide cost-effectiveness of a $1.00
gasoline tax is $14.60 per ton of emission reduced.33
Feebates. One alternative to CAFE standards is a FeeBate program which uses market forces to
promote the acquisition of more fuel efficient vehicles. FeeBate systems set a standard
efficiency against which motor vehicle efficiency is compared. A fee is charged purchasers of
low fuel efficiency vehicles and a rebate is awarded to those who acquire high fuel efficiency
vehicles. The actual fee or rebate depends on the amount the vehicles exceeds or falls short of a
base mileage target. For example, assuming a base target of 30 mpg and a feebate of $100 per
mpg, the purchaser of a vehicle achieving 35 mpg would receive a $500 rebate at the point of
sale while a 23 mpg vehicle must pay a $700 fee. Generally, feebates are intended to be revenue
neutral—to pay out the same amount in rebates as they charge in fees.
33 The cost of a gasoline tax is the "dead-weight-loss" of driving less. The dead-weight-loss equation is
l/2*(change in miles driven)*(change in the cost per miles driven)
See Appendix B for this calculation. This estimate of a $124 million cost resulting from a $1.00 per gallon gasoline
tax ignores other benefits of reduced driving such as lower congestion. An over simplified calculation of the
congestion benefits assumes 500,000 hours of daily delay time in 2010 (an interpolation of delay times estimated by
the Puget Sound Council of Governments' Vision 2020 document; 190,000 hours in 1990 and 830,000 hours in
2020). Assuming a 15 percent reduction in VMT reduces delay time by 15 percent, then 75,000 hours per day
would no longer be wasted in traffic. Multiplying this figure by the average wage rate ($15/hour) and 250 working
days reveals a congestion benefit of about $280 million. Eliminating almost 10 billion miles per year of vehicle
traffic would also reduce the need for road construction and maintenance.
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Global Warming Action Plan
A recent Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory report estimated that a FeeBate of $100 per mpg
differential could improve new car fuel mileage by 15 percent in 2010. Such an improvement in
new vehicle fuel efficiency would lower annual carbon dioxide emissions by 4.4 million tons in
2010. However, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) blocked an effort by Maryland to
enact a FeeBate program. DOT held that fuel economy incentive programs are preempted by
federal statute. Maryland's Attorney General, while conceding that certain aspects of the
Maryland law violated the federal preemption otherwise affirmed the state's central right to
enact a FeeBate. Presently, the legality of a fuel efficiency based FeeBate is uncertain.
In-Use Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
In addition to strategies encouraging people to acquire fuel-efficient vehicles, several programs
can help improve in-use motor vehicle efficiency.
Speed Limit Enforcement. Vehicle fuel efficiency decreases as speeds rise; one rule of thumb
is that vehicle fuel efficiency drops 1.5 to 2.0 percent for each mile per hour (mph) traveled
above 55 mph. Approximately 35 percent of state vehicle traffic is on roadways posted at 55
mph or higher and almost 70 percent of this traffic travel faster than 55 mph.34 Assuming these
percentages remain the same in 2010, then enforcing the speed limit would save about 105
million gallons of gasoline and lower carbon dioxide emissions 662.800 tons. However, the cost
of this program is on the order of $140 million due to increased travel time (excluding
enforcement costs and safety benefits). A speed-limit enforcement program costs about $140 per
ton of carbon dioxide controlled.
Vehicle Inspection And Maintenance Programs. Another way to improve fuel efficiency is to
ensure that vehicles are properly operating. Motor vehicle inspection and maintenance (I&M)
programs are designed to do just that.35 Washington state currently operates a "normal" I&M
inspection in most of King, Snohomish, Pierce, Clark, and Spokane Counties. Moving to an
"enhanced" inspection program in these counties could save 24 million gallons of gasoline and
lower carbon dioxide by 0.17 million tons in 2010.
Due to air quality problems in King, Pierce, Snohomish and Spokane Counties, enhanced
inspections are federally required in those areas. Therefore, the ancillary carbon dioxide benefits
are assumed to have no cost. Expanding the enhanced I&M program state wide adds $121
million to the program's cost and reduces emissions a further 340,000 tons, all at a cost
effectiveness of $360 per ton. Exempting vehicles younger than 5 years lowers the additional
cost to about $79 million per year, the carbon dioxide reduction to 0.26 million tons, and the cost
effectiveness to $310 per ton. Expanding the program also reduces hydrocarbon, carbon
monoxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions.
A slight modification of the I&M program could further improve efficiency. At any given time
approximately half the motor vehicles have under inflated tires. These vehicles suffer efficiency
loss of about one mile per gallon. Including a tire check/inflation during the I&M procedure
would reduce gasoline consumption and carbon dioxide emissions about 3.7 million gallons and
35.000 tons, respectively. This measure saves more in reduced gasoline expenditures than it
costs to conduct the test.
34 Personal communication with WSDOT staff.
35 EPA reports that the fuel efficiency of vehicles repaired after failing a normal I&M inspection improves about 5
percent while those failing an enhanced I&M inspection see a 12 percent boost.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Remote Sensing. A program similar to motor vehicle I&M is remote sensing. Remote sensing
uses an infrared beam and combustion chemistry to measure exhaust emissions and vehicle
efficiency. Remote sensing identifies vehicles in need of repair between regular I&M
inspections. Vehicles identified by remote sensing as high-emitting are re-inspected and
repaired as necessary. Remote sensing is a relatively inexpensive means to obtain virtually
instantaneous measurements of on-road emissions and efficiency for large numbers of vehicles.
However, remote sensing does have important limitations including:
instantaneous vehicle exhaust concentrations can vary greatly;
weather conditions limits its use. For example, the spray behind cars on wet pavement interferes with
emission measurements. Ecology estimates weather would interfere with remote sensing about 10%
of the time. Also, it cannot properly assess the emission characteristics of cold vehicles;
it can only test across a single lane;
alternating sites are needed to test a broad cross-section of vehicles;
it requires reading of vehicle license plates. (To identify owners of vehicles with high emissions).
Snow, road dirt, or trailer hitches may obscure license plate images. A 70 percent data 'capture' rate
has been reported in remote sensing field studies.
The potential of remote sensing depends on how well it identifies out-of-tune vehicles and the
extent to which it deters tampering with vehicle equipment. A combined remote sensing and
enhanced I&M program could yield savings of 8.1 million gallons of gasoline in 2010 and lower
carbon dioxide emissions by 77.000 tons. Combined with a normal vehicle I&M program,
remote sensing could save 4.1 million gallons of gasoline and lower carbon dioxide emissions by
39.000 tons.36 Sierra Research calculated the cost of such a program at approximately $500,000
per year assuming 20 weeks of on-road testing. This measure has a cost effectiveness of $770 to
$490 per ton of carbon dioxide controlled.
Alternative Motor Fuels
A third area of potential greenhouse gas reductions from the transportation sector is with the use
of alternative fuels. Vehicles powered with some alternative fuels—compressed natural gas,
ethanol, methanol—emit less carbon dioxide per unit of energy than gasoline. However, the
greenhouse gas benefit of alternative fuels is not straight forward. A fair comparison includes the
entire fuel production cycle, not just the emissions coming from the vehicle itself. As Table 13
illustrates, methanol from coal results in greater overall carbon dioxide emissions than gasoline
while methanol from wood emits less.
An additional issue just now receiving attention is the effect of regulations established to deal
with other environmental problems on carbon dioxide emissions. Fuel sulfur and aromatic
content limits or minimum oxygen content require oil companies to more intensively refine
petroleum which generally increases fuel cycle carbon dioxide emissions. The extent to which
this regulation increases carbon dioxide emissions is uncertain. One estimate places world-wide
regulation-caused carbon dioxide emissions at 1.4 to 2.7 million tons per day.
Table 13
Alternative Fuels Full Cycle Carbon Dioxide Emissions*
Feedstock/Fuel Fuel-cycle C02 equivalent Change relative to gasoline
emissions (grams/mile) (in percent)
Petroleum/Reformulated Gasoline 469 NA
Coal/ Methanol 741 58
36 Remote sensing also reduces other pollution. Ecology estimated that the program could reduce carbon monoxide
emissions by 1,350 tons in 2001 in Spokane, assuming a 50 percent drop in vehicle tampering.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Coal/Compressed Hydrogen
713
52
Corn/Ethanol
449
-6
Natural Gas/Methanol
439
-6
Natural Gas/Compressed Hydrogen
351
-25
Natural Gas/Compressed Natural Gas
346
-26
Wood/Compressed Hydrogen
117
-75
Solarelectric/Compressed Hydrogen
84
-82
Wood/Methanol
80
-83
Wood/Ethanol
-43
-109
' OTA, Saving Energy in U.S. Transportation, 1994
Vehicle Fleets Alternative Fuels Mandates. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 establishes a
schedule for state governments, natural gas and electric utilities, and propane distributors to
acquire alternative fueled vehicles. Starting with the 1996 model year, 10 percent of vehicles
purchased by these entities must use alternative fuels. By 1998, 50 percent of federal vehicle
purchases are required to use alternative fuels. The Energy Policy Act allows DOE to apply a
similar requirement to private and municipal fleets
beginning in 1999. This analysis considers the effects of
requiring half the vehicles in Washington fleets to operate
on alternative fuels.
Barriers to Electric Vehicles
In 1990, Washington had 71 permanently registered fleets
(e.g., Boeing) and 649 regular fleets. Assuming the
permanent and regular fleets average 100 and 25 vehicles,
respectively, then the fleets contained about 64,000
vehicles, or 1.5 percent of all state vehicles. If this
percentage remains constant, then fleet vehicles will
number about 105,000 in 2010, 52,500 of which must
operate on alternative fuels (electric, natural gas, propane,
and/or ethanol). Assuming these vehicles annually travel
20,000 miles per year (about double what the typical
vehicle travels) and that an alternative gasoline vehicle
achieves a fuel efficiency of 21.6 miles per gallon a fleet
alternative fuel requirement would lower carbon dioxide
emissions by 59.000 tons in 2010 (See Table 14.)
Based on bids for providing natural gas or propane
vehicles for the state fleet, these vehicles are assumed to
have a price premium of $3,000. Price premiums of
$1,000 for ethanol fuel vehicles and $10,000 for electric
vehicles are also assumed. (As the demand for alternative
fuel vehicles increases, these cost premiums should fall.)
Assuming the fleet vehicles roll-over every five years, the
annual cost premium of an alternative fuels mandate for
fleet vehicles is $105 million. This results in a cost-
effectiveness of $1,800 per ton of carbon dioxide
controlled.
Table 14
Carbon Dioxide Reductions From a Fleet
Alternative Fuels Requirement
Technological advancement is needed for
electric vehicles to compete directly with
conventional cars. Storing electricity is the
most daunting problem: batteries are heavy,
expensive, short lived, limit vehicle range to
under 100 miles and take several hours to
recharge. Batteries under development
should remedy some of these problems. An
additional concern is cabin heating. Heating
systems needed for cold season operation
may negate much of the carbon dioxide
emission reduction benefits. Public
acceptance of operational limitations and
maintenance requirements of electric vehicles
is a final concern.
resources otten nave a significant greenhouse
gas emissions advantage.
Fuel processing. Energy requirements for
processing coal or biomass into usable fuels are
much larger than the energy needed to produce
gasoline. Similarly, natural gas and hydrogen
incur large energy penalties for compression
and liquefaction.
Transportation. Locally made fuels such as
biomass-based methanol or domestic natural
gas have less transportation cost than gasoline
made with imported oil.
Fuel Characteristics. Fuel properties also
affect vehicle efficiency: octane ratings affect
compression ratios and thus efficiency; high
flammability limits the use of lean burn
engines, an energy saver. Energy density and
phase (gas, liquid) also affects fuel efficiency
due to storage requirements (volume and
weight). Finally, alternative fuels have unique
carbon contents, each produces various
amounts of carbon dioxide per unit of energy
combustion.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions Annual Reduction in Carbon
Relative to Gasoline Dioxide Emissionst
Electric .50 57,200
Natural Gas .74 29,700
Propane .98 2,300
Ethanol 1.06 -6,800
Total 82,400
t 8.8 tons x (1-relative emissions) x 13,000 vehicles
The California Low Emission Vehicle Program. The California low emission vehicle
program was created to reduce carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides emissions.
However, the zero-emission requirement for a certain proportion of new car sales does have the
potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as well.
California's zero-emissions mandate is, in effect, an electric vehicle mandate.37 Electric vehicles
cause carbon dioxide emissions through their use of electricity. According to Table 15 the net
carbon dioxide emissions from electric vehicles is slightly more than half the emissions of their
gasoline fueled counterparts. Considering new vehicle penetration rates and assuming electric
vehicles would travel the same distance as gasoline vehicles, then by 2010 approximately
4.5 percent of the State VMT would travel under electric power. This would lower
carbon dioxide emissions by 0.49 million tons in 2010 (see Tables B-20 and B-21). However,
due to technological limitations electric vehicles have a more limited traveling distance than
gasoline vehicles. Therefore, 0.49 million tons may over-estimate the actual emissions benefit of
the California low emission vehicle program.
Perhaps the most contentious issue surrounding the zero-emission vehicle mandate is the cost of
electric vehicles. Cost estimates, ranging from $1,400 to $34,000 per vehicle, are difficult to
compare because of differing assumptions about technological progress and the type of product
consumers will accept. At this time, it is uncertain which estimate most closely reflects the
actual costs that would result from adopting the California standards. This report assumes a
$10,000 cost premium for electric vehicles. This cost translates into a cost effectiveness of $700
per ton of carbon dioxide reduction for the zero emission portion of California's low emission
vehicle program (see Table B-22).
Table 15
Lifetime Emission of Electric Vehicles Relative
to Conventional Gasoline Vehicles*
Vehicle Energy Lifetime Carbon Dioxide
Consumption Emissions (tons)
Compact GM Impact (0.25 kWh/mile) 11.1
Toyota MR2 (28.5 mpg) 33.3
Mini-Van Chrysler TEVan (0.44 kWh/mile) 19.5
Ford Aerostar (23.4 mpg) 40.6
Full Size Van GMC G-Van (0.94 kWh/mile) 41.6
37 Under the Clean Air Act, states choosing to opt-into the California low vehicle emission program must adopt all
of California's emission standards. Thus, vehicles sold in Washington would have to meet stringent hydrocarbon
and nitrogen oxide emission limits as well as the zero-emission mandate. This analysis deals only with the effects
of the zero-emission vehicle mandate; other parts of California's standards are not evaluated.
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Dodge B250 Van (17.7 mpg) 53.7
Average Lifetime Emission Reduction, tons 18.5
(percentage reduction) 43%
Assumes lifetime vehicle travel at 100,000 miles. Conventional vehicle data from EPA certification data. Carbon
dioxide reduction estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding the energy consumption of replaced
conventional vehicles. For example, the average fuel efficiency of the conventional fueled vehicles in this table is
23.2 mpg. Substituting a fuel efficiency of 21.6 mpg (as projected by WSDOT for 2010), increases the carbon
dioxide emission reduction to 0.58 million tons. Calculations for conventional vehicles do not account for
deterioration in mileage or emission control components over time. See also Electric Vehicles, An Alternative
Fuels Vehicle, Emissions, and Refueling Technology Assessment, WSEO, 1993.
Modifying Demand
Altering transportation modes offers another potential way to achieve significant carbon dioxide
reductions. However, the present transportation system is highly skewed against public transit.
Our system evolved during a period of strong automobile subsides in the form of: low-cost or
free parking, low density development patterns shaped by zoning, freedom from a variety of
external costs (air pollution, noise, etc.), and government subsidized road construction. Decision
makers must start from the current auto-orientated transportation infrastructure in devising
strategies to increase public transportation ridership.
Most research on transportation mode choice emphasizes decisions commuters make between
the automobile and travel by rail, bus, carpooling, vanpooling, or telecommuting. Efforts to
understand and influence mode shifts have been motivated by desires to reduce traffic congestion
and energy consumption, improve air quality, and plan infrastructure investments. Some options
for influencing mode choice include:
• increase the cost of driving;
• control access to parking and highways, provide high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes;
• provide fiscal incentives to reduce costs to developer and business tenants who promote HOV use by
their companies and employees, or that increase the cost of solo commuting relative to HOV modes;
• informational advertising and moral persuasion directed at businesses and individuals to promote or
use HOV modes.
With the exception of a small (but growing) number of dedicated HOV lanes, these options have
had little success in shifting commuting demand from private automobiles to HOV modes.
People appear to highly value the privacy and convenience of the automobile. Local
governments often find it difficult to impose the financial or regulatory burdens necessary to
change people's travel behavior. In addition, these efforts are small compared to the substantial
expenditures to support the automobile infrastructure.
A Vehicle Mileage Tax. Perhaps the most straightforward way to reduce travel demand is to
raise travel costs. A vehicle mileage tax (VMT) tax directly accomplishes this goal. Motorists
respond to increased travel costs by eliminating and consolidating trips, and by using alternative
transportation modes. And reduced VMT translates into lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Using WSDOT data, a $0.04 VMT tax is projected to lower vehicle travel by approximately
18.6 billion miles in the year 20 1 0.38 This huge reduction saves 866 million gallons of gasoline
38 One difference between a VMT tax and a gasoline tax is the resulting compensating behavior. Individuals may
respond to a gasoline tax by acquiring more fuel efficient vehicles. With a VMT tax the only compensating
behavior is to reduce travel. Since the public has less flexibility under a VMT tax, a lower travel demand elasticity,
-0.5, was presumed than for the gasoline tax analysis.
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Driving Incentives
According to Pickrell (1990) employer-
provided free parking "overwhelms any
inducement for employees to commute by
public transit that is currently offered by a
partial tax exemption of the value of
employer-supplied transit passes. At most,
a free transit pass can be worth about $270
in annual taxable salary... [under] the
1984 Tax reform Act. In contrast
employers' offers of free parking are
typically equivalent to salary increases
four times as large and can range in value
up to ten or more times that amount."
(emphasis in original)
Pollutant
Reduction (tons)T
Pollutant
Reduction (tons)T
Volatile organic compounds
47,030
Benzene
3,222
Carbon Monoxide
383,520
1,3 Butadiene
665
Nitrogen Oxides
43,680
Formaldehyde
378
* Emission reduction estimates from the draft Ecology MSST report.
Using the same methodology as for the gasoline tax section, the costs of a $0.04 VMT tax is
calculated at $372 million. The overall cost-effectiveness of a VMT tax is estimated at $45 per
ton of carbon dioxide removed.39
Administration of a VMT tax is likely to be quite difficult. Unlike a gasoline tax collected at the
pump, a VMT tax requires periodic recording of odometer readings. Perhaps the easiest
approach would be a VMT surcharge assessed at the time of vehicle registration. The difference
in odometer readings between registration periods would determine the number of miles
traveled. Likely concerns include establishing fee schedules for vehicles that travel out of state
and vehicles that enter and exit the system. Administrative costs of a VMT tax were not
included in the cost or cost-effectiveness estimates.
Increased Parking Fees. Parking is an integral part of motor vehicle operation. In fact, the cost
of parking is often more than other vehicle operating costs (Pickrell 1991).40 However, many
commuters pay little to none of the parking costs. Employers often provide parking as an
employee perquisite and cities often subsidize parking to generate benefits for the local
economy. In addition, local zoning usually requires a minimum number of parking spaces per
resident, employee or customer. The federal government exempts the value employees receive
from employer provided parking from income taxes. Commuters who do not face the true costs
of parking drive too much.
39 Administration costs are not included in the cost estimate. The revenue raised by a $0.04 VMT would total
approximately $1.8 billion. Similar to the gasoline tax, this cost calculation ignores benefits other than carbon
dioxide reduction. For example, reducing VMT by 18.6 billion miles per year would have significant congestion
benefits (estimated at $544 million using the same methodology as for the gasoline tax.) Similarly, reducing traffic
would lessen the need for new road construction and for existing road repair.
40 Assume that the average round-trip commute is 20 miles, gasoline costs $1.25 per gallon and vehicle mileage
averages 20 miles per gallon. This translates into a daily vehicle operating cost of $1.25. This compares to parking
costs in downtown Seattle that typically average over $5.00 per day (author's observation). For southern California
Willson reports the per space fee range which recovers both the capital and operating costs at $71 to $143 per
month ($3.40 to $6.90 per day).
and lowers greenhouse gas emissions by 8.2 million tons. As
Table 16 indicates, a VMT tax would significantly lower
emissions of other pollutants as well.
Table 16
Effect of a Vehicle Mileage Tax on Pollution
Emissions
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Increasing the cost of employee parking is one way to force the commuter to realize more of the
social cost of their driving decisions. And this should significantly affect commute travel
demand.41 Shoup and Willson (1990) developed a model which suggests that a $5.00 increase in
commuter parking costs will reduce the number of vehicles arriving at a work site by 13 percent.
Assuming that 20 percent of the State's VMT is commute related and that a $5.00 increase in
parking costs affects 10 percent of commute trips, then VMT should go down by 168.2 million
miles. This would annually save 7.8 million gallons of gasoline and lower carbon dioxide
emissions by 74.000 tons.
A first-order estimate suggests the societal cost of a parking tax is low since it only involves a
transfer of wealth; employees would begin paying for what employers currently offer for free.
However, provision of free parking does work at cross purposes to other social objectives:
reduced traffic congestion and air pollution. By advancing these other social objectives,
increased parking fees may actually result in benefits in excess of its cost. On the other hand, it
is clear the benefits will not be enjoyed equally. Commuters will bear the greatest portion of the
costs while employers will reap much of the benefits. The overall cost-effectiveness of an
increase in parking fees is estimated to be near $0 per ton of carbon dioxide removed.
Designing a parking tax or fee targeted towards commuters currently receiving free parking is
difficult. Perhaps the most straight forward way to accomplish this is through the employers.
For instance, the state could require employers to pay a parking fee for every employee not using
a non-SOV mode of transportation. Alternately, parking operators could be required to provide
information about employers who leased parking for their employees. If the employees were not
charged for that parking, the employee could be subject to a tax. However, according to Ulberg,
there is not known experience with either of these options.
Trip Reduction Ordinance. Trip reduction ordinances (TRO) are in place in several
communities including Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, and
Milwaukee. Washington state's commute trip reduction (CTR) law requires employers in the
counties of Clark, King, Kitsap, Pierce, Snohomish, Spokane, Thurston, or Yakima with 100 or
more employees to reduce VMT and single-occupant vehicle (SOV) rates by 15 percent in 1995,
25 percent in 1997 and 35 percent in 1999. The current TRO applies to about 684 employers
(Ecology). This evaluation considers the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of expanding the
CTR to include employers with more than 50 employees; in the presently affected counties. The
newly affected employers would reduce SOVs and VMT by 15 percent in the year 2000, 25
percent in 2002 and 35 percent in 2004.42
As a commute to work strategy, energy savings are calculated assuming 250 work days per year.
Ecology estimates this strategy could reduce total annual VMT by about 72.5 million miles.
This translates into a yearly carbon dioxide emission reduction of 23.000 tons. Using a model
developed by Sierra Research, Ecology also calculated TRO costs. For the most part, Ecology
input to the model cost data recommended by the Puget Sound Regional Council. (There is
some discord regarding these cost estimates.) Expanding the program to include employers with
41 Pickrell reports that after a Los Angeles government agency introduced market rates for employee parking, SOVs
dropped from 42 to 8 percent and ridesharing increased from 17 to 58 percent. In Washington DC, parking charges
at federal buildings imposed at half the market rate resulted in up to a 40 percent decrease in solo driving.
42 Under Washington's commute trip reduction law (RCW 70.94.517) local jurisdictions must pass ordinances
requiring large employers to develop worksite programs. Lowering the program threshold to 50 employees would
require jurisdictions to update their ordinance and affect some jurisdictions for the first time.
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over 50 employees is projected to annually cost $11 million. Thus the cost-effectiveness of this
measure is $480 per ton of carbon dioxide eliminated.
Rideshare. A subset of TROs are ridesharing programs which encourage people to share rides
during their commute trips. Existing rideshare programs in King, Snohomish, and Pierce
counties have about 18,000 registrants. These programs provides no incentives to potential
registrants beyond providing a list of potential participants. About 20 percent of registrants are
placed into carpools. Kitsap county has a larger regional based program with explicit incentives
for ridesharing. About 570 new car/vanpools have formed since Kitsap Transit's program began,
with an average of 30 new registrants per week. The Kitsap Transit program shows the potential
of a properly conceived and promoted community-based rideshare effort.
Expanding the current ridematching program in King, Snohomish, Pierce, and Kitsap counties to
model the Kitsap Transit Smart Commuter Discount Program could further reduce VMT,
gasoline consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. An expanded rideshare program would
target work sites with 50 to 100 employees and large trip destination centers. In addition to a
computer-generated match list, participants receive additional services such as 1) preferential
parking, 2) guaranteed parking, 3) a Smart Commuter Discount Card entitling registrants to
discounts at local businesses, and 4) a guaranteed ride home. Ecology estimates that such a ride
share program could lower VMT by 43 million miles per year. This translates into carbon
dioxide reductions of 13.600 tons per year.
Ecology estimated the costs of an expanded ride sharing program using the Sierra Research
TCM model. For the most part, Ecology used cost data recommended by the Puget Sound
Regional Council in the model. Assuming the costs calculated for the four Puget Sound counties
are applicable outside those counties, a state-wide enhanced ridesharing program is estimated to
cost $3.6 million. The cost effectiveness of this program is $260 per ton of carbon dioxide
reduced.
Telecommuting. Businesses with telecommuting programs allow employees to work away from
the primary worksite (usually at home). Telecommuting requirements vary from a desk at the
remote location, to a telephone, or a computer with a fax modem. Software is currently available
that allows home computers to communicate with office computers. Moreover, future
technology will increase the type and number of tasks that individuals can complete away from
the traditional workplace. Fiber optic cables, for example, should greatly increase computer data
exchange and service capabilities.
Presently about 0.3 percent of the Puget Sound work force telecommute (Kunkle). Based on the
Kunkle estimates, Ecology concluded that a ten-fold increase in telecommuting—3 percent of
the work force, or 70,700 people—is feasible. According to Ecology, such a program would
lower annual VMT by 43 million miles, gasoline consumption by 1.4 million gallons and carbon
dioxide by 13.600 tons. To promote telecommuting, employers provide opportunities and/or
incentives to employees to encourage working at home. Again using the Sierra Research TCM
model, Ecology estimated the cost of a 3 percent telecommuting rate at $5.8 million. This
estimate assigned a cost of $400 per telecommuter for set-up and $300 per employee for program
administration cost.43 The cost-effectiveness of telecommuting is estimated at $425 per ton of
carbon dioxide reduction.
43 The startup costs for telecommuting range from no cost to acquiring a phone line, purchasing a computer or
acquiring other equipment. In the Puget Sound telecommuting demonstration project, 30 percent of participants
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The benefits of telecommuting include reduced congestion. A DOE analysis found that
telecommuting could reduce congestion delay in urban areas 3 to 5 percent (USDOE, 1993).
Telecommuting participants may also receive ancillary benefits like: reduced exposure to air
pollution; additional contact with children and reduced childcare costs; greater centralization of
communities; and reduced commuting stress.
Mass Transit System. Mass transit systems are another way to reduce VMT. One mass transit
system recently proposed for King, Pierce and Snohomish County area is projected to have a
daily ridership of 560,500 when the system is complete in 2020 (Regional Transit Project,
Environmental Impact Statement). Assuming full ridership annual VMT and carbon dioxide
emissions would fall approximately 1 billion miles and 345,000 tons, respectively. However,
huge and as yet uncertain quantities of fossil fuel will be needed to construct this system
(construction of the system will take at least ten years).44 Therefore, the aggregate effect on
carbon dioxide emissions is uncertain. As such, the appropriateness of this measure as a
greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy is not yet clear. On the other hand, other
considerations such as congestion relief may make this project worthwhile. These other
considerations are beyond the scope of this analysis.
Transportation Multimodal Coordination. Historically,
transportation infrastructure, such as highways, transit, bike
paths, and rail develop and operate independently. A lack of
physical connections between modes creates user delays and
requires multiple ticket purchases. Improved connections
and compatible scheduling among buses, trains, ferries, van
pools, shuttles, car pools, cars, bicycles, and pedestrians
would make these systems more attractive to commuters. A
further improvement would be a regional pass or single fare
card good for use on all modes and across jurisdictions 45
Creating the inter-connections necessary to allow users to
move easily between systems will require a coordinated
effort by the different operating agencies. An integral part of
such an effort are public information and education
programs.
Ecology estimates that transportation coordination can
reduce VMT by 1.5 percent (bicycle improvements,
Mass Transit in Washington
An extensive mass transit system proposed
for King, Snohomish and Pierce Counties
was recently turned down by voters. The
$10.3 billion system included 125 miles of
electric-powered rapid rail running on an
exclusive, grade-separated right-of-way
and a 40-mile commuter rail line. In the
north, service was proposed between
downtown Seattle and Everett. The south
Corridor ran from downtown Seattle to
Tacoma. Eastside service to Seattle from
Bellevue, Redmond and Issaquah was
planned. A rail line linked Paine Field,
Bothell, Kirkland, Bellevue, Renton and
Burien. Commuter rail using existing
freight and passenger railroad lines, also
linked Seattle and Tacoma by way of the
Green River Valley. Under the proposal,
modified bus service would connect with
the rail system as would HOV lanes and
Park and Ride lots.
reported buying equipment at a median cost of $700. The overall average cost is thus $233 per telecommuter. I
assume a $300 equipment cost per telecommuter plus $100 for "How to Telecommute" training, for a total of $400.
The $300 program administration cost is between the public and private sector ongoing costs listed in Puget Sound
Telecommuting Demonstration Executive Summary (WSEO). The Sierra Research model estimated costs for King,
Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish counties were inflated by 1.78 to project state wide costs.
44 Massive amounts of energy are needed to construct a mass transit system. Healy and Dick, for example, analyzed
the energy requirements of the BART transit system in California. They concluded that if the BART system were
used for 50 years "the [cumulative] energy required for propulsion will be roughly 40 percent of total energy. The
other 60 percent is for construction (44 percent) and operation and maintenance (16 percent). "
45 With a regional fare card system all transportation agencies sell the card and accept its use. Its costs are between
a simple pass system and a major electronic card reading system. Regional pass systems can have either a positive
or a negative impact on transit ridership depending on pricing. We assume reasonable pricing and that participating
agencies agree on appropriate revenue sharing.
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0.5 percent; pedestrian improvements, 0.5 percent; a regional pass system, 0.3 percent; and
transit schedule improvements, 0.2 percent)46 or 1.3 million miles per year. This lowers carbon
dioxide emissions by 410 tons. The cost of this program is estimated at $31 million per year for
an overall cost effectiveness of $75,000 per ton of carbon dioxide control.47
Other benefits of improved intermodal connections include reduced trip and delay time, both for
transit riders through better service and for vehicles through reduced congestion. Reducing the
number of vehicle miles traveled should decrease costs for highway, street, and parking
construction, maintenance, and repair.
Land Use. Land use and transportation planning are major influences on a community's
structure. Transportation systems oriented to the car allow people to travel long distances to
work, shop, and play. Land use patterns that physically separate residential, commercial and
industrial areas, make automobile use a necessity. As an alternatively, transit-oriented
development directs growth into existing urban regions. The increased residential and
employment densities, and mixed-use commercial centers makes high capacity transit more
attractive. Typically, transit-oriented development strategies take more than 20 years to
implement. This strategy examines the changes in VMT brought about by introducing a
transit-oriented development pattern into an existing urban region.
Transit oriented development creates pockets of high density work, and commercial and
recreational mixed uses. These pockets overlay an existing urban region of low density single
use areas with separated work, recreation and commercial activities. The goal of transit oriented
development is to direct most new residential and all new commercial development to regional
centers with the following characteristics.
• Mixed Use Features: High density residential, commercial and industrial facilities in close proximity to each
other and within 1/8 to 1/2 mile of transit. A housing mix of small lot single family residences, townhomes,
and apartments above first floor commercial development.
• Residential & Employment Densities: 7-50 dwelling units per acre within selected centers, with some center
densities up to 70 units per acre. Between development centers, density below 5 units per acre. Employment
densities of 60-75 employees per acre in the centers with significantly higher density in the major centers.
• Transit Services: Expanded bus, train and/or light rail service with good scheduling and route connections.
Terminals for different modes (trains, buses, ferries) in close proximity to one another. All transit accessed
with a single fare card. The transit service links employment, commercial, institutional and residential areas.
5-10 minute walking time to transit. 30 minutes or less transit travel times to employment areas.
46 The data used to calculate the benefits of transportation coordination come from the Regional Transit Authority's
1992 Environmental Impact Statement. Estimates of the benefits of transit improvements vary widely. Apogee
Research found a range of 0.03 percent VMT reduction for modest improvements in small communities to
2.57 percent for large investments, such as rail expansions, in large communities. Replogle concluded that bicycle
and pedestrian improvements that enhance access to transit reduce VMT 0.5 percent in the short term and
2.1 percent in the long term.
47 The final Environmental Impact Statement for Vision 2020 estimated $200-$300 million for pedestrian and
bicycle facilities improvements. Ecology estimated the other costs below:
INTERMODAL IMPROVEMENTS
COST (millions)
Arterial related bicycle & pedestrian
$81.8
Bicycle & pedestrian
$300.0
Route scheduling
$0.2
Regional Pass
$1.7
TOTAL COST
$382.7
ANNUAL COST (20 years, 5%, amortized)
$30.7
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• Pedestrian Features: Pedestrian routes are both shared (sidewalks adjacent to access streets) and separate
facilities. Within the centers, commercial and industrial activities between transit facilities and the residential
areas; walking times and distances to these facilities are equal to or less than those for transit service.
• Bicycle Features: Bicycles routes are both shared and separate facilities. On local access streets bicycles share
the road with vehicles. On higher capacity streets bicycles have reserved lanes and separate paths within the
right-of-way.
Quantifying the effectiveness of land use mixing and densification in reducing VMT is difficult.
Ecology compared continuation of existing community plans (i.e., transit share of commute trips
of 10 percent) transit oriented development (i.e., transit share of commute trips increases to 15
percent) Ecology concluded that over the long run transit oriented development would lower
VMT by 2.7 percent.48 Based on this estimate, annual gasoline consumption falls by 71,000
gallons in the Puget Sound region (transit orientated development is an urban area program).
This would result in 670 fewer tons of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere.
The cost difference between high density planned development such as this strategy and a lower
density sprawl strategy can vary depending on the assumptions, and how a community charges
for its facilities and services.49 Ecology assumed that the money spent on transportation remains
the same, but is spent differently, e.g., less road building and more transit. Therefore, the only
costs considered are those to develop and update urban area comprehensive plans, estimated at
$5 million.50 Assuming these plans have a ten year life, the annual cost of this program is
$680,000. The cost-effectiveness of this program is $1,000 per ton of carbon dioxide control.
One difficulty with this strategy may be how and whether to compensate property owners in
designated rural areas for taking the development rights from their land.
Trains
Electric Trains. Trains consume significant quantities of energy in Washington state.
Nationally, diesel trains consume 10 percent of all distillate fuel (Edison Electric Institute).
Assuming this is also the proportion in Washington and that this trend continues, then diesel
trains will consume approximately 75 million gallons of distillate fuel and emit 839,000 tons of
carbon dioxide in 2010. Since electric trains enjoy a 15 percent advantage over diesel trains in
terms of carbon dioxide emissions (Edison Electric Institute), electrifying Washington trains
would annually lower carbon dioxide emissions by about 200.000 tons.
The cost of electrifying trains in Washington is not known. Stringing overhead power lines will
cost a substantial sum. Another problems is that electricity over long distance routes must come
from several utilities. Nevertheless, several studies indicate that relative to automobiles and
48 The literature contains varied estimates of how much VMT growth can be reduced. A 2.7% reduction is at the
low end and 10% at the high end of estimates. In Washington a significant amount of existing housing,
commercial, and industrial sites are already located outside the transit oriented development centers. Consequently,
the VMT reduction expected for Washington is assumed at the low end of the estimates.
49 Many variables can affect the cost of different development strategies. Density, lot size, road widths, household
size, location of development, distance to central public facilities, size of the urban area and how aggressively the
community pursues higher densities and limits new road construction all affect development costs. Generally, high
density development is cheaper than low density sprawl. In addition, land use strategies address more concerns than
air quality, including congestion, energy conservation and the quality of life.
50 Currently, communities which are subject to the Growth Management Act have spent an estimated $100 million
dollars updating their plans. Seattle has spent about $5.5 million (about $10/resident), Vancouver $1.5 million and
Yakima $1.1 million (about $25/person) on development of comprehensive plans to date (Carlson).
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trucks, electric rail service is an efficient and low cost means of transporting goods and people
(when subsidies to and externalities associated with public roadways are included).
Truck To Train Mode Shifts. Many estimates have been made about the efficiency of various
modes of commodity transportation services. The OTA (1994) reports that for 1990, "the
average energy intensity for inter-city freight movement by truck was 3,357 Btu per ton mile,
whereas the average intensity for train transport was 411 Btu per ton-mile, a ratio of 8:1.
However, an examination of the energy consumption by both trucks and trains for moving
identical cargo over the same routs, suggests that trucks use 1.3 to 5.1 times as much energy as
trains do. " An Oak Ridge National Laboratory estimate assumes trains consume about
12 percent of the energy per ton mile as trucks. Presuming a conservative in-use energy
consumption truck-to-train ratio of 3:1, then approximately 330 pounds of carbon dioxide
emissions is reduced for every 1000 ton-miles of freight diverted from trucks to trains.
The second key unknown in estimating the energy savings potential of mode shifts is the amount
of freight that could be shifted. OTA reports that trucks move about half of the non-bulk, long-
haul freight traffic. Shifting all the competitive freight would double present-day long-haul non-
bulk train movements. This would raise annual train carbon dioxide emission about 840,000
tons and lower truck emissions by 2.52 million tons for an overall emission reduction benefit of
1.68 million tons. The feasibility of such a shift depends on both the proximity of current rail
facilities to cargo origination and destination points and the capacity of rail facilities to absorb
new load. While the second part of this equation is likely met (the national rail network operates
at about 20-25 percent of capacity), whether rail facilities are located to take advantage of a shift
is uncertain.
Possibly the most direct government policies to promote rail transportation are subsidies or tax
breaks. At present the amount of mode shifting achieved by any particular financial incentive is
not known. Therefore, I could not calculate a cost effectiveness estimate of this carbon dioxide
emission reduction strategy.
WSDOT Grain Train. WSDOT recently initiated an interesting program to improve the
long-term viability of short-line rail roads in Eastern Washington. Rail carriers typically assign
covered hopper grain cars to long-haul markets because they yield high profits. As a result,
Washington wheat shippers (short-haul rail customers) must truck grain to river ports for barge
transportation. WSDOT reports that 800 to 1000 rail carloads of grain are lost to trucking
annually due to car shortages. In response, WSDOT purchased 29 hopper cars to supplement the
grain transportation capacity of railroads in Washington.
According to WSDOT, the rail cars cost $730,000 to purchase and repair. However, the grain
train has benefits far in excess of this cost: $300,000 by shippers (annually) due to lower
transportation costs; $500,000 by state and local jurisdictions (annually) through reduced road
repair costs; regional benefits from a more competitive multi-modal transportation system; and
environment benefits from reduced consumption of fossil fuels.51 WSDOT estimates that the
grain train saves over 10,000 gallons of diesel fuel and lowers carbon dioxide emissions by 110
ton per year. Moreover, expanding this program to 68 cars could save an additional 35,000
51 A second energy benefit not counted here is from reduced barge traffic on the Columbia river. A "back of the
envelope" calculation suggests that the water used to operate the locks at Bonneville dam a single time would
produce about 1750 kWh of electricity if run through the dam's turbines. To the extent that the grain train reduced
barge traffic, it also increases the water available to produce electricity.
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gallons of fuel and reduce emissions by over 500 tons per year. Finally, This program has the
great advantage of saving much more money than it costs even without consideration of the
greenhouse gas reduction.
Airplanes
High-Efficiency Commercial Airplane Engines. Commercial jet fuel is one of the fastest
growing areas of fossil fuel consumption. Between 1990 and 2010 consumption is projected to
almost double and carbon dioxide emissions are estimated at over 19 million tons. One way to
reduce these emissions is to improve aircraft fuel efficiency. The Ultrahigh bypass high-
efficiency, unducted fan engine was developed specifically for this purpose. General Electric
designed, demonstrated and certified this engine during a time of high fuel costs (and high
expected fuel costs). Drawbacks of this engine are a high purchase price ($1 million over a
traditional engine) and its limitation to rear-engine configured airplanes. ICF estimates that this
engine could reduce overall jet fuel consumption by 4.0 percent in 2010.52 Assuming the ICF
estimates are correct, widespread adoption of this engine could reduce greenhouse gas emissions
about 800.000 tons in 2010. The cost effectiveness of this engine in terms of carbon dioxide
reduction is positive—it saves more money than it costs.53 However, given the mobile nature of
airplanes and interstate commerce concerns the state could do little to promote acquisition and
use of these engines. Progress in these areas depends upon federal action.
52 A 4.0 percent reduction in fuel consumption may be high for Washington State. Much of this State's projected
growth in air travel involves international pacific rim flights. Airplanes servicing these routes typically have an
underwing engine configuration which precludes use of the unducted fan engine.
53 Assuming a cost premium for the engine of $1 million, average annual fuel savings of 200,000 gallons for 15
years and fuel costs of $0.60 per gallon (also assuming that the price inflation for jet fuel approximately equals the
general rate of inflation). All estimates from ICF.
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Global Warming Action Plan
The Electricity Generation Sector
A final area of significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is in the generation of
electricity. Presently this sector emits a relatively small amount of greenhouse gases relative to
the national average due to state reliance on hydroelectric generation (and some nuclear power).
However, current environmental restrictions along with a lack of suitable future dam sites limits
additional development of hydroelectric resources. New generating resources are expected to be
primarily natural gas fired combustion turbines. Between 1990 and 2010 natural gas use by
utilities is expected to increase 854 fold. By the year 2010 carbon dioxide emissions from these
plants are projected at 9.77 million tons. This section looks at the potential to substitute some of
this increase with renewable generating resources:
specifically wind, solar and biomass.54
Wind Power. Contemporary wind projects are typically
rated at 25 to 100 MW. A 25 MW project might have 60 to
70 turbines covering 1500 acres. Turbines, while reminiscent
of aircraft propellers, are specifically designed for electrical
generation. The blade and generator housing, or nacelle,
pivots to face directly into the wind. Each turbine is rated at
about 300 to 500 kW of capacity. Turbines are usually
arranged in rows oriented at right angles to the direction of
the prevailing winds and spaced at two to five rotor diameters
from each other. Rows of turbines are usually located with
roughly 10 rotor diameters between them. Wind projects
typically produce power about 95 percent of the time at an
average output of 28 - 35 percent of rated capacity.55
The potential for wind energy in Washington State is
practically limited by the windiness of an area, competing
land uses and the cost of project development. The minimum
average wind speed suitable for commercialization is 16 mph.
The 1991 Northwest Power Plan estimated the State's wind
resources at 450 MW. However, technology improvements
have expanded the wind resource potential. Current wind
turbines would produce about 900 MW at these same sites
(Lynette). Moreover, recent wind monitoring revealed a
400 MW site on the Washington/Oregon border which was
54 As an alternative to renewable energy resources, some have suggested direct removal of carbon dioxide from
combustion turine flue gases. However, the thermal efficiency penalty makes such efforts impractical. Another
proposal by Hihous et. al. is to reform the fuel prior to combustion to remove the carbon dioxide. This process
would mix methane with superheated steam to form hydrogen and carbon dioxide.
CH4 + 2H20 4H2 + C02
The carbon dioxide is then separated and disposed of deep in the ocean. The remaining hydrogen is combusted
producing only water vapor. The uncertainties of this approach include its cost, its thermal efficiency and the
ecological effects of ocean carbon dioxide disposal. At the moment, this and other carbon dioxide "scrubbing"
alternatives are only conceptual in nature and therefore, will not be discussed further.
55 Much of the information about wind electricity generation for this section came from Mike Nelson of the
Washington State Energy Office.
Wind Projects in Washington
Currently no wind energy projects operate
in Washington. However, several are
planned. The Conservation and
Renewable Energy System (or CARES), a
joint operating agency with eight Public
Utility Districts, has begun a 25 MW
project in Klickitat County. Two private
utility companies, Pacific Corp. and
Portland General Electric, have begun the
process to permit a 100 MW wind project
also in Klickitat County. And, Kenetech
has bid a 100 MW capacity wind project
for the Snohomish County PUD near Walla
Walla in eastern Washington.
In addition, Washington companies
manufacture wind generation equipment.
Heath Techna makes wind blades in Kent,
principally for the California market.
AWT may build turbines in Port Angeles.
Ninety of these turbines would be used in
the CARES project. These companies are
well situated to compete in the expanding
world market for wind generated
electricity—India, for example, intends to
obtain 900 MW of wind generation—and
are helping Washington maintain a
leadership role in high technology.
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Global Warming Action Plan
not included in the current resource assessments. The Battelle Wind Energy Resource Atlas of
the U.S. estimates that approximately 2 million acres of Washington's land has class 3 or better
wind speeds. (A class 3 wind has an average speed of above 14.3 mph.) If half this area is
suitable for wind development then the potential wind resource is about 2000 average
megawatts.56
Wind energy has several attractive attributes. First, wind turbines are small and modular. By
producing modular units in quantity, economies of scale help to reduce costs. Second, a wind
farm's generation potential can be sized according to current electrical demand. This reduces
commitment of capital in unused generation capacity and lowers investment risks. Third, wind
energy consumes no fuel and therefore is not vulnerable to future rises in fuel prices. Finally,
although wind farms occupy many acres, that land remains available for its traditional use such
as pasture or agricultural production as little of the site is permanently occupied.
The principal drawbacks of wind energy have been its cost and the intermittent nature of wind.
The cost concern has largely dissipated. In the 1980s cost of wind resources averaged around
$0.50 per kWh. However, according to the Electric Power Research Institute wind costs are now
" ...about the same as power from more conventional sources. " While requiring high initial
investment, the lack of fuel costs make wind power competitive with many traditional energy
sources. For example, Zond Systems, Inc. recently won a bid in Minnesota to provide wind
energy at a cost of $0.030/kWh. (This bid includes the federal Tax credit, without which the cost
would be $0.036/kWh).
The intermittent nature of wind gives rise to concerns about its ability to supply base-load needs.
However, it elegantly compliments the regional hydroelectric energy system. The electricity
generation capacity of hydro system is limited by the amount of water behind the dams. Wind
generation can supplant hydro generated electricity and thereby save water for power generation
or fisheries management. Furthermore, the peak production of some wind sites occurs during the
winter which may help meet peak demand.
As discussed above, the cost of wind generated electricity is approximately the same as for
natural gas combustion turbines. Therefore, the cost of supplanting combustion turbines with
wind generation is essentially zero. This results in a cost-effectiveness of carbon dioxide
reduction of $0 per ton. The annual carbon dioxide reduction that would result from adding
500 MW of wind resources (nameplate capacity) totals approximately 450,000 tons. The cost of
constructing 500 MW of wind resources would total about $500 million.
Not withstanding the comparable life-cycle costs, the traditional regulatory cost-recovery
structure for energy projects impedes the development of wind power. Under the current
structure the fuel costs of fossil fuel generation—a significant portion of total costs—are spread
over the life cycle of the project. The structure front loads the higher capitol costs of wind
power making electricity rates higher than a comparable fossil fuel generation facility during the
early years of the project. It is ironic that wind's lack of fuel costs, while clearly a positive
attribute, puts it at a disadvantageous position relative to fossil fuel projects. Washington could
assist in lowering this barrier to wind energy development by allowing capitol cost recovery over
the entire life of the project, and assisting with low interest project financing and tax incentives
56 The Battelle Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the U.S. estimates wind resources in Washington at nearly 3,750
average megawatts. However, it is unrealistic to assume development in all land with wind generation potential..
According to WSEO staff a more plausible maximum wind potential estimate is around 2000 MW.
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targeted to renewable projects, spreading state sales taxes on wind over the life cycle of the
project.
Solar Photovoltaic Systems. Distributed photovoltaic systems usually consist of fixed rooftop
arrays and a DC to AC inverter installed at the electrical panel. The arrays typically have a 4.0
kW nominal capacity though electricity generation depends on the energy level of sun light
(averaging 4.8 kWh/m2/day in Yakima and 3.8 kWh/m2/day
in Olympia). An estimate by WSEO places the State's
potential for solar electricity generation at about 4000 MW.
Benefits of photovoltaic electricity to utilities include
delaying substation replacement, extending equipment
maintenance intervals, reducing electric line losses, and
improving distribution system reliability.57
The main impediment to widespread photovoltaics use is its
cost. The current cost of electricity generated with
photovoltaics is around $0.13 - 0.15/kWh more than natural
gas turbines—it is expensive electricity.58 However, costs are
falling. A 4.0 kW panel cost $14/Watt in 1992, today it costs
about $4/Watt. Maycock predicts prices at $2.00 -
$2,50/Watt by 2000. A stable market for photovoltaic
equipment is essential to continue the fall in prices.
The $0.14 /kWh cost differential in electricity generation
results in a carbon dioxide reduction cost-effectiveness of
$220 per ton. A state wide program to place photovoltaic
arrays on 10,000 residences (half in eastern Washington and
half in western Washington) would annually generate
approximately 9.3 MW (81,374 MWh) of electricity, reduce
59,800 tons of carbon dioxide emissions and cost
approximately $46 million. Assuming economics of scale
lowers the cost differential to 11 cents/kWh, the cost per ton
of carbon dioxide reduction is $150.
The state could improve prospects for solar generated
electricity and reduce its costs through long-term pilot
programs, demonstration projects, and research and
development grants.
Nuclear Powered Electricity Generation. Nuclear power,
though it posses other environmental concerns, is one viable
57 Much of the information about photovoltaic generation systems in this report came from Mike McSorley of the
Washington State Energy Office.
58 1994 Component costs estimated by the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) were: $6.48/watt
including installation, inverters and mounting system (arrays $4.00/watt; inverters $1.00/watt, installation
$1.00/watt, mounting $0.28/watt, miscellaneous $0.20/watt): $0.90/watt for utility administration, (includes
interconnections, metering, site preparation, district labor, administration, overhead, tax, bonding, and O&M). .
Total cost of system was $7.38/watt. Replacement costs of $2.76/watt were estimated for the year 2000. Finally
decommissioning costs including removal of the system would approximate the installation costs plus roof hole
repairs, through-the-wall hole repairs and powerline disconnect.
Photovoltaics in Action
The SMUD photovoltaic program employs
volunteers (PV Pioneers) who allow the
utility to install 4 kW systems on their
roofs. The system consists of photovoltaic
modules, an inverter and wiring and is
directly connected to the grid. SMUD
views rooftop applications as free land with
no EIS, no development hassles and no
transmission line extensions. There is no
dual metering, all electricity flows to the
grid. The customer is charged a "green
rate" premium of 15 percent per month of
the individuals bill.
A SMUD phone survey found over 2000
willing "PV Pioneer" customers — 26
percent of the general population and 57
percent of the "green" population. SMUD
installed 108 residential systems and one
commercial system in 1993 and planned to
install 134 residential and 8 commercial
rooftop systems in 1994. This totals of 613
kWh rooftop photovoltaics. Because of the
great response SMUD expects to install
100 photovoltaic systems per year over the
next 5 years.
Current trends in the utility industry would
reduce the prospects for photovoltaics.
Should retail wheeling remove utilities
from the central role of purchasing
electricity, it may also eliminate the
funding source of demonstration projects
which give rise to stable demand. Retail
wheeling may also affect solar power by
focusing competition only on price;
neglecting other concerns about traditional
generation resources.
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Global Warming Action Plan
option to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Indeed, France relies heavily on nuclear power as a
source of electricity and has per capita greenhouse gas emissions about one-third of U.S. levels.
There is one nuclear powered electricity generation facility operating in Washington, WNP-2.
Its nameplate capacity is 1173 megawatts of electricity, though it typically generates around
1160 megawatts when operating. Frequent shutdowns have reduced plant performance. For
example, in 1994 WNP-2 had an operating capacity factor of 71.8 percent and generated about
840 average megawatts of electricity (Washington Public Power Supply System). WNP-2's
1995 capacity factor goal is 78 percent. As a non-fossil fuel source of electricity, the 840
megawatts generated by WNP-2 displaced approximately 2.96 million tons of carbon dioxide
emissions relative to a combustion turbine.
Given the environmental concerns surrounding nuclear power and the perceived high cost some
argue for shutting down the plant. While this report takes no position on those environmental
issues, it clearly emits less carbon dioxide than fossil fuel generating facilities. Table 17
presents the cost per ton of carbon dioxide control of nuclear power relative to its cost premium.
For example, if nuclear power costs three mills per kWh more than electricity produced with a
combustion turbine, the carbon dioxide control cost effectiveness is $7.50 per ton.59
Table 17
Cost Effectiveness of Nuclear Power as a Carbon Dioxide Reduction Strategy*
Cost Premium Carbon Dioxide Reduction Cost Effectiveness
(Mills/kWh) (Dollars/ton)
1
2.50
2
5.00
3
7.50
4
10.00
5
12.50
6
15.00
7
17.50
8
20.00
9
22.50
10
25.00
Assumes the displaced electricity source is a 50 percent efficient combustion turbine.
Biomass Fueled Electricity Generation. Biomass fuels offer a unique energy resource for
electric generation. Biomass fuels include any organic matter available on a renewable basis
(e.g., agricultural and woody crops grown for fuels forest residues, wood product residues,
agricultural field residues and processing wastes, animal wastes, and municipal solid waste).
They generally are a co-product from our needs for food, fiber, and structural materials. Most
are considered waste products and are available for the cost of transportation. However, their
low energy densities, relative to coal or petroleum, limits the distance they can be economically
transported. About 1,000 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) of biomass residues are generated
each year in the Pacific Northwest.60
59 From an economic standpoint this measure of cost effectiveness is incorrect. This is because the cost premium
includes repayment of money spent to build the plant. The economically proper way to calculate cost effectiveness
is to ignore such "sunk" construction costs and only consider the marginal cost of plant operation. Excluding sunk
costs would significantly reduce electricity costs of the already constructed WNP-2.
60 Unless otherwise noted, the information about biomass fuels in this report came from a draft Washington State
Energy Office report to the Northwest Power Planning Council by Jim Kerstetter.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Today, approximately 1,000 biomass-fueled electric
generating facilities operate in the United States, one-third of
which supply power to the grid. Some biomass fuels, such as
woody residues have a long history of use for generation. For
others, like municipal solid waste (MSW), interest has risen
and receded with promulgation of environmental regulations
and alternative uses of the materials. DOE has an ambitious
plan to provide as much as 50,000 MW of biomass power by
the year 2010. The program includes improving the
performance of today's biomass power plants, evaluating and
utilizing biomass fuels for co-firing, developing next-
generation technologies, and assuring availability of biomass
fuel supplies from dedicated feedstock supply systems.
Systems to generate electricity from biomass materials vary
depending upon the input fuel (see Table 18). At least three mature technologies are fueled by
woody materials, forest and mill residues: stoker power plants, wood gasification/combined
cycle power plants and fluid bed combustion. These systems are also suitable for burning
agricultural field residues fuel. Landfill gas systems use either internal combustion engines or
gas turbines to produce electricity. Anaerobic digester systems are used to process animal
manure.
Table 18
Fuels, Technology, and Sizes
Wood/Agricultural Residues Steam 10,25,50
Wood/Agricultural Residues Circulating Fluid Bed 10,25,50
Wood/Agricultural Residues Wood Gasifier/Combined Cycle 10,25,50,100
Landfill Gas IC Engine 5
Animal Manure IC Engine 0.5
Chemical Recovery Steam 20
Biomass fuels offer important greenhouse gas reduction benefits even though, on an energy
basis, their carbon dioxide emissions are comparable to coal. As biomass biodegrades, it
releases carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere. Therefore, combusting biomass to
produce electricity only accelerates the release of biomass carbon into the atmosphere and
offsets the carbon dioxide emissions from traditional fossil fuel sources. For this reason, this
report assumes the net contribution of combusting biomass to global warming potential is zero.
Woody Residues encompass two potential biomass fuels, forest residues and mill residues.
Forest residues include material left after a timber harvest, stagnant and dying timber, hardwood
stand conversions, and pre-commercial thinnings. Data on forest residue availability and cost is
limited. However, interest is growing in recovering materials from forests to protect health and
reduce fire danger.61 A report prepared for the Pacific Northwest and Alaska Bioenergy Program
estimated that at a value of $0.30 per cubic foot (including chipping and hauling), 4,350 MBtu of
Current Biomass Use in Washington
Washington lost about 30 MW of biomass
generating capacity with the closure of the
Skagit County Resource Recovery Project,
the North Powder, Blue Mountain, and the
Pine Products products. Changing
economic conditions drove the closures.
Additions to biomass power include the
Tacoma Steam Plant retrofit which came
on-line in 1991. This 50 MW facility co-
fires coal, biomass and refuse derived fuels.
Scott Paper and the Snohomish County
Public Utility District are partners in a 52
MW cogeneration facility using hog fuel
and spent pulping liquor.
61 Recovery of logging residues solely for energy production is economically tenuous. However, residue recovery
often is designed to achieve multiple objectives such as slash removal requirements or stand improvements. Such
other objectives help to lower the cost of using logging residues for energy production.
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Global Warming Action Plan
woody residuals would have been extracted from Washington forests in 1990.62 Scaling this
estimate by the expected reduction in timber harvest suggests 2,350 MBtu of forest residues
economically available for energy production in 2010 (assuming no change in extraction costs or
value of woody residuals).
Mill residues are generated when timber is converted into lumber and plywood. The quantity of
residue per board foot of lumber produced and per square foot of plywood available for power
generation has dramatically fallen over time. Kerstetter estimates that region-wide mill residuals
will total only 7,000 MBtu in 2009. Scaling this estimate by 0.45 to account for Washington's
portion of regional timber production results in a projection of 3,150 MBtu of mill residuals
available for energy production in this state. Altogether, 5,500 MBtu of woody residuals are
assumed to be economically available to produce electricity in 2010.
Characteristics of alternative wood-fired power plants are described in Table 19. These boilers
produced about 7.9 aMW per trillion Btu/year of forest residues and mill residues burned. Thus,
this energy source could supply approximately 43.5 aMW of electricity in 2010. If this energy
production displaced a high-efficiency combined-cycle natural gas fired combustion turbine,
then carbon dioxide emissions would fall by about 150.000 tons. (Assuming the woody residue
would release carbon dioxide anyway through the biodegration process or by being burned.)
The cost of this reduction is about $80 per ton of carbon dioxide eliminated.
Table 19
Performance and Economics of Wood-Fired Power Plants+
Stoker Power Plant
Net heat rate, Btu/kWh 14,393 14,380
Fixed, $/kW-yr. 99.1 68.3
Total Cost/kWh (cents) 8.3 6.7
Fluid Bed Combustor
Net heat rate, Btu/kWh 14,356 14,342
Fixed, $/kW-yr. 108.3 75.5
Total Cost/kWh (cents) 9.3 7.5
Wood Gasification/Combined Cycle Power Plant
Net heat rate, Btu/kWh 12,818 12,818
Fixed, $/kW-yr. 181.3 124.6
Total Cost/kWh (cents) 12.4 9.6
"^Based on Kerstetter (1995) estimates.
Chemical Recovery Boilers recycle the chemicals used to pulp wood into fiber. They also
reduce wastewater discharges and produce steam. Of Washington's 19 mills, 9 have chemical
recovery boilers. Four of these boilers produce 87 aMW of electric power. WSEO estimates
that upgrades to those four boilers along with new generating equipment at five other boilers
would increase the electricity generating capacity in this sector to over 203 aMW. Indeed, the
Scott Paper Company in Everett is in the process of installing new hog fuel boilers and running
excess steam through a 52 MW turbine generator to produce electricity. The cost of the Scott
Paper Company project is estimated at $600/kW (Kerstetter). While costs vary significantly
among the different sites, a $600/kW seems a reasonable estimate, and therefore serves as the
basis for estimating the cost of adding electric generation to the other chemical recovery boilers.
62 A $0.30 per cubic foot value of woody residuals is approximately equal to a hog fuel cost of $25 per ton. Current
hog fuel prices average around $20 per ton but can vary up to $30 per ton.
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Global Warming Action Plan
The 116 aMW of electricity estimated as available from this sector is based on current firing
rates, steam requirements and chemical streams. Therefore, the sole cost of this electricity is the
capitol costs to upgrade the boiler and add electricity generation equipment. Assuming a 90
percent capacity factor and spreading capital costs over twenty years results in a $0,006 cost per
kWh. Compared to natural high-efficiency gas fired combustion turbines, the electricity
generation from chemical recovery boilers lowers carbon dioxide emissions by about 410.000
tons. No cost-effectiveness estimates were made for this measure since it costs less to produce
power from this source than from natural gas fired combustion turbines.
Agricultural Field Residues are a byproduct of producing grain. While highly variable, about
50,000 million Btu of residues are annually left on Washington fields (3,000 pounds of residue
per acre). However, the residues available for generating electricity depend upon the agronomic
requirements for soil fertility and erosion control. The technology to combust agricultural
residue is similar to that for wood residues. Therefore, the capital cost of $0,050 per kWh is
assumed, based on a 50 MW stoker power plant. To procure agricultural residue fuel, one must
collect, transport, store the residue and add fertilizer to fields to replace nutrients otherwise
provided by the residues. Cost estimates of these activities are provided in Table 20.
Based on these estimates, the overall cost of using agricultural residues to produce electricity
was calculated at $0,082 per kWh (including the cost of a 50 MW stoker type plant). State
Carbon dioxide emissions would fall by 282.000 tons for each plant at a cost effectiveness of $93
per ton of reduction. Agricultural field residues are not currently used in Washington to produce
power but are used in some other areas notably California.
Table 20
Costs of Procuring Agricultural Field Residues
Cost Component
$/ton
$/MBtu
Collection
11
0.73
Fertilizer
3
0.20
Local Storage
4
0.27
Transportation
10
0.66
Total
32
$2.20
Municipal Solid Waste is another potential energy fuel. However, its potential to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions depends on alternative disposal options. Generally speaking,
contemporary land fills are designed to prevent water infiltration as much as possible to protect
ground water from contamination. Without water, land fill materials do not biodegrade.
Therefore, neither carbon dioxide (a result of aerobic digestion) or methane (a result of anaerobic
digestion) are emitted in great quantities from new land fills. With regard to older land fills, the
situation is quite different. Constructed at a time of less stringent environmental regulations,
these landfills are considerably wetter than newer ones. However, by the year 2010 most older
landfills are likely to be closed. Therefore, combusting MSW to produce electricity should not
significantly affect greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.
Landfill Gas is produced as a result of decomposition of organic matter in landfills. The gas is
composed of approximately 50 percent carbon dioxide and 50 percent methane.63 For energy
63 About 70 percent of landfill waste contains organic material including yard waste, household garbage, food
waste, and paper. Landfill gas production typically begins one or two years after waste placement and may last for
decades. Site-specific factors such as waste quantity and composition, moisture, temperature, and pH all affect the
quantity of the landfill gas produced.
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Global Warming Action Plan
production the important gas is methane. Landfill methane is
typically flared. However, interest in the use of landfill gas
to fuel electricity generation is growing. Nationally, nearly
three-quarters of landfill gas recovery projects use internal
combustion engines to generate electricity. The remaining
projects use gas or steam turbines (17 and 7 percent,
respectively). The internal combustion engines are primarily
used in plants producing up to 5,000 kW, while turbines are
used in the larger projects.
As a greenhouse gas, methane emissions from landfills were
estimated in the WSEO greenhouse gas inventory. Landfills
in Washington are projected to produce 407,600 tons of
methane in 2010. Landfill regulations are becoming more
stringent and now requirements include installation of
leachate collection systems to prevent liquids from entering
the ground water and landfill gas collection systems. WSEO
projects that the collection system will capture about 75
percent or 305,700 tons of methane. At a conversion rate of
9.4 aMW/trillion Btu for internal combustion engines, landfill
methane could produce about 140 aMW of electricity in
2010.
Since the landfill gas is "free" and regulations require gas
collection systems for environmental reasons, the cost of this
electricity is limited to generator - engines and associated
equipment. EPA estimates the capital cost of landfill gas
electric generating systems at $l,200/kW. Amortizing the
capital costs over twenty years and assuming an 80 percent
capacity factor results in a $0.0137 cost per kWh. The operating and maintenance costs are
about $0.015/kWh. Altogether, the cost of electricity generated with landfill gas is estimated at
about $0,029 per kWh—comparable to the cost of electricity from natural gas combustion
turbines. Therefore, the carbon dioxide control cost effectiveness of landfill gas combustion is
assumed to be near $0 per ton. After accounting for the benefits of methane reduction and
assuming all 140 aMW of potential electricity is realized, then carbon dioxide emissions fall by
about 494.000 tons in 2010.
Animal Manure is another source of methane gas produced through anaerobic digestion. The
quantity of methane produced from animal manure depends on the type and number of animals,
the manure generation rate, and the manure management system. Manure management systems
are classified as solid systems and liquid systems. Solid systems include animals on pasture or
range, dry collection as done on feedlots, and solid storage. Solid management systems produce
only five percent of the gas that could theoretically be produced from the manure. Liquid
systems produce up to 65 percent of the theoretical potential. Liquid systems include liquid or
slurry collections, pit storage and anaerobic lagoons. Animal manure anaerobic digestor systems
are not a mature technology, only 24 operate on farms in the United States.
The type of methane recovery system used depends upon the farm size, number of animals,
manure management system characteristics, climate, and farm electricity needs. Table 21 shows
typical capital and operating costs for the three types of digestor systems for three farm sizes.
Types Of Digestor Systems
There are three types of digestor systems.
Covered lagoons—the simplest recovery
system—consists of a manure collection
system, a solids separator, a lagoon, a
water withdrawal system, and an electric
generating system. A rubberized cover is
floated on top of the lagoon. A piping
system collects the methane and delivers it
to an engine-electricity generator.
A plug flow digestor system includes
manure delivery, a long air-tight trough,
effluent removal and methane collection.
Each day a new "plug" of manure is added
at one end of the trough. This slowly
pushes the other manure down the trough.
An air tight cover maintains anaerobic
conditions. The gas is collected through a
perforated pipe above the manure and
transported to an engine generator.
Complete mix digestors are similar in
concept to the plug flow digestor. The
difference is the circular shaped digestor
vessel. Waste heat from the engine cooling
system warms the vessel and the manure is
mechanically mixed in the digestor.
Complete mix digestors typically handle a
lower solid content manure than plug flow
digestors and generally handle larger
manure volume.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Table 21
Capital and Operating Costs for Animal Waste
to Electricity Generating Systems
Lagoon
250
500
1,000
$69,500
$99,800
$163,800
$2,100
$4,200
$8,500
Plug Flow
250
500
1,000
$97,800
$130,100
$190,300
$1,100
$2,200
$4,400
Complete Mix 250
500
1,000
$117,400
$168,200
$261,800
$1,500
$3,100
$6,100
Dairy cows provide the major recoverable animal manure resource in Washington. In 1992 the
manure generated by about 242,000 dairy cows had the potential to produce 26 aMW of electric
power. The generating potential is based on the rule of thumb of slightly more than 0.1 aMW
per thousand head of dairy cows. The economics of generation depend on heard size. From the
capital and operating costs of Table 21, a cost per kWh of 0.039 and 0.041 is estimated for herd
sizes of 1500 and 750 head, respectively. Assuming a size cut off of 750 head, then a 5.5 MW
generation potential exists. The climate change benefits of this strategy go beyond displacing
electricity from other generating sources. It also reduces methane emissions, a potent
greenhouse gas.. Altogether an estimated 110.000 ton reduction in equivalent carbon dioxide
gas emissions at a cost of $1.72 per ton will result from manure methane recovery and electricity
generation at farms with 750 head.
Carbon Sequestration
Geoengineering is an alternate approach to respond to the effects of global climate change.
Rather than limit emissions, geoengineering options are designed to capture carbon dioxide from
the atmosphere or block some sunlight from reaching the earth. According to the National
Academy of Sciences, potential geoengineering options include screening sunlight and
increasing carbon dioxide uptake in oceans and forests (see Tabel 22).
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Global Warming Action Plan
Table 22
Carbon Sequestration Profile*
Geoengineering
Option
Low stratospheric soot
Low stratospheric dust
• aircraft delivery
• balloon/gun delivery
Cloud stimulation
Stratospheric bubbles
Stimulate ocean
biomass
Space mirrors
Reforestation
Geoengineering Option
Implementation
Decrease efficiency of burning in
engines of aircraft flying in the low
stratosphere to maintain a thin cloud
of soot to intercept sunlight
Use aircraft, guns or balloons to create
and maintain a dust cloud in the
stratosphere to increase sunlight
reflection.
Burn sulfur in ships or power plants to
form sulfate aerosols in order to
stimulation additional low marine
clouds to reflect sunlight.
Place billions of aluminized, hydrogen-
filled balloons in the stratosphere to
provide a reflective screen.
Place iron in the oceans to stimulate
generation of carbon dioxide
absorbing phytoplankton.
Place 50,000 10-km2 mirrors in earth
orbit to reflect incoming sunlight.
Reforest 28.7 Mha of economically or
environmentally marginal crop and
pasture lands and nonfederal forests.
Low
Low
Low
Emission Mitigation (CO2
Equivalent tons per year)
8 billion to 25 billion
8 billion to 4 trillion
4 trillion or amount desired
Low to 7 billion or amount desired
moderate
Low to 4 trillion or amount desired
moderate
Low to 4 trillion or amount desired
moderate
Low to
moderate
t From Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming, National Academy
costs less than $10 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, a moderate cost
dioxide equivalent.
Press, 1991. An option has a low cost if its
is between $10 and $100 per ton of carbon
Afforestation. One obvious carbon dioxide sequestration practice is to plant idle cropland with
trees. The 1992 Department of Commerce Agricultural Census found about 450,000 acres of
idle cropland in Washington and 1.7 million acres in summer fallow (see Table 23).64
Birdsey estimates that newly planted Pacific coast forests sequester 12.2 tons of carbon dioxide
per acre. Assuming only idle cropland is available for afforestation, the new forests could
annually sequester 5.5 million tons of carbon dioxide. Moulton and Richards estimate the cost
of planting trees at $180 per acre and renting idle cropland at $42 per year.65 The cost
effectiveness of afforestation is approximately $4.20 per ton of carbon dioxide sequestered.
Table 23
Unused farmland in Washington, 1992 (acres)*
Eastern Idle Summer Western Idle Summer
64 Idle cropland may be uneconomic to farm or participate in federal farm setaside programs. The Commodity
Acreage Adjustment program diverts cropland from production of wheat, cotton, corn, sorghum, and barley into
conservation uses. The Conservation Reserve Programs or Wetlands Reserve Programs take highly erodible land
out of production and reforest or plant with protective cover crops. Alig et. al. reports that up to two million acres
of Pacific Northwest idle cropland (Washington and Oregon) may revert to natural cover.
65 Representatives of the State Department of Natural Resources (Dennis Carlson, personal communication) and the
Weyerhaeuser Corporation (John McMahon, personal communication) indicated that a $180 per acre reforesting
cost was "in the ballpark" but could be higher. Variables affecting the cost of planting stock include, the number of
trees per acre, labor costs, land characteristics (steep slopes, inaccessible areas) and the cost to prepare the land.
Since cropland is generally relatively flat and smooth, I assume the $180 per acre estimate is reasonable.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Counties
Cropland
Fallow
Counties
Cropland
Fallow
Adams
52,101
263,626
Clallam
181
84
Asotin
4,806
22,649
Clark
880
461
Benton
26,054
137,287
Cowlitz
504
60
Chelan
3,520
1,197
Grays Harbor
388
88
Columbia
13,212
54,955
Island
657
177
Douglas
50,403
186,343
Jefferson
163
0
Ferry
1,566
1,304
King
868
38
Franklin
40,532
87,854
Kitsap
450
Garfield
14,603
56,676
Lewis
1,720
248
Grant
42,047
118,315
Mason
Kittitas
3,725
4,657
Pacific
242
Klickitat
11,803
42,267
Pierce
1,285
190
Lincoln
45,371
301,531
San Juan
392
6
Okanogan
13,558
7,136
Skagit
1,092
468
Pend Oreille
411
296
Skamania
0
Spokane
14,532
35,249
Snohomish
1,205
151
Stevens
3,782
11,707
Thurston
1,534
Walla Walla
34,983
176,827
Wahkiakum
0
Whitman
44,397
227,095
Whatcom
1,998
536
Yakima
21,732
30,224
Total
413.138
1.767.195
13.559
1.971
Blank entries indicate data unknow n or not available. From 1992 Agricultural Census.
* Excerpted from Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming, National Academy Press, 1991.
This analysis ignores two important factors which will affect the price of carbon sequestration.
First, cropland rental rates will vary depending on alternative uses. Idle land near growing
What Happens to Carbon in a Forest?1
There arc two principal phases to the plant energy production/consumption cycle. During the photosynthesis phase,
plants use sunlight to convert water and carbon dioxide into energy containing organic compounds. During the
second or dark phase, plants consume the energy stored in these compounds and respire carbon dioxide. The
balance favors the net accumulation of carbon in trees, shrubs, herbs, and roots. The rate of carbon storage in an
ecosystem is known as net. productivity. Young, vigorous forest stands tend to exhibit the greatest growth rates.
However, total carbon stored at any time is greatest in older, mature forests, even though they have a net growth rate
near zero. Much of the carbon in older forests is hidden - as much as 60 percent of the carbon in forests is stored
below ground in organic matter (including roots) and organisms in the soil.
The effect of culling forests on atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on how much carbon was stored in the forest.
what happens to the cut wood, and how the lands arc managed. Cut wood left on site decomposes. Microorganisms
(e.g.. fungi, bacteria) consume it. along with leaf and branch litter. Through their metabolic activities,
microorganisms convert carbon in the wood to carbon dioxide. Decomposition rates depend on factors such as
oxygen availability, temperature, and moisture. Burning wood directly emits carbon dioxide. In some cases,
though, wood fuel can replace traditional fossil fuels: over one-half of the wood removed from U.S. forests in the
early 1980"s was burned for energy. The net effect on carbon dioxide depends on combustion efficiency, the
alternate fossil fuel, and carbon storage rates of vegetation that replaces the trees.
Finished wood products store carbon until they decompose. Durable products such as construction lumber retain
carbon for decades or even centuries: about one-fourth of stemwood harvested during the last 35 years has been
converted to such products. Short-lived products such as paper may decompose and release carbon dioxide or
methane quickly after being discarded. Carbon release rates depend on the conditions at the discarded site.
After harvesting, carbon dioxide is again taken in by new vegetation growing on the site, assuming the land is not
converted to noncgativc state. The net offset in carbon dioxide emissions from the harvesting depends on the type
of vegetation (e.g.. crops, pasture, or trees), the rate at which it and the soil stores carbon, the availability of
nutrients, and how long the vegetation grows before being harvested again. If the time scale is long enough, the
land is used for a series of harvests, and the harvested wood is converted into durable products or displaces fossil
fuels, then forests can be a net sink for carbon.
communities is likely to have high costs due to its potential use for residential development.
Alternatively, remote areas lacking viable alternatives will have very much lower rental costs.
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Global Warming Action Plan
Since most of Washington's idle cropland is located in the relatively more rural eastern half the
of state, we expect that Moulton and Richards' estimated rental rate is reasonable. The second
important factor is whether the planted trees would be harvested. Data from Adams et. al.,
suggests that allowing harvesting improves the overall cost effectiveness of afforestation by half
(e.g., $2.10 per ton). Adams suggests that the market for timber products is relatively inelastic
so that increasing the supply provides a substantial price benefit to consumers.
Other Geoengineering Options. After afforestation, the geoengineering alternative receiving
the most attention is ocean iron fertilization. Surface waters of over 20 percent of the world's
oceans have minimal levels of phytoplankton despite containing the major plant nutrients
(nitrate, phosphate and silicate). Some suggest iron—important for a wide variety of electron
transport and enzymatic systems—is the limiting factor (Martin et. al., Kolber et. al., Scoy and
Coale). de Baar et. al., reported that the mass of spring phytoplankton blooms in the Southern
Ocean varied by an order of magnitude between iron rich waters (more biomass) and iron poor
waters. Tests found that plant mass doubled, chlorophyll levels tripled and plant production
increased four fold as a result of adding iron to the ocean. However, these increases were seen to
subside somewhat over time. Joos et. al., estimate that a continuous iron fertilization effort
could annually remove 2.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Emplacing dust in the stratosphere is also a potential option for reducing the effects of increased
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. In a study of Mt. Pinatubo, McCormick et. al. estimate that
for 1991 and 1992, the cooling effect of the aerosols thrown up by the eruption overwhelmed the
warming expected from the combined anthropogenic emissions of all greenhouse gasses. In
1992, radiative forcing of the aerosols was calculated at -3 W/m2.
However, while geoengineering measures have the potential to substantially affect global
climate, our limited understanding of the global climate system make the ultimate effects of such
measures highly uncertain. Moreover, some have the potential to cause other adverse
environmental consequences. The very nature of these measures make them more appropriate
for a national or international debate.
CONCLUSIONS
Global climate change poses a serious dilemma for policy makers. The likelihood, timing and
results of climate change are uncertain. And these uncertainties will not be resolved for decades,
or even centuries. Waiting risks irreversible damages while immediate action risks large
expenditures to mitigate inconsequential or even beneficial changes. Addressing global climate
change will require the skills of scientists and policy makers: scientists to describe the potential
consequences of climate change and alternative mitigation strategies, and policy makers to
balance the threats and opportunities of climate change relative to other social needs and desires.
This report falls much more in the former camp; describing the potential consequences of
climate change and alternative mitigation strategies. However, we part with a few thoughts on
how the policy maker might take this information to develop a response strategy.
Manne and Richels suggest that policy makers consider greenhouse gas mitigation measures as
an insurance policy against an uncertain future. Using decision theory techniques, they
demonstrate the amount of precaution needed is inversely related to the confidence in a near
term scientific consensus regarding the consequences of climate change. Though the IPCC is
vastly improving our understanding of the global climate system, it is doubtful that a scientific
consensus will soon emerge. Thus, following Manne and Richels' logic, an active program to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions is warranted as insurance against our ignorance about climate
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Global Warming Action Plan
change. On the other hand, Parry concluded that "the insurance value from cutting [greenhouse
gas] emissions is trivial, relative to the cost. ...[because] the possibility of climate change is (a)
so far into the future. " Using this logic little effort should be expended to lower carbon dioxide
emissions.
Another policy approach to climate change is the "precautionary principle" defined by the 1992
Australian Intergovernmental Agreement on the Environment (Dovers). The central premise of
the principle is that one should anticipate and act to prevent serious environmental damage.
Where there are threats of serious or irreversible environmental damage, lack offull
scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to prevent
environmental degradation. In the application of the precautionary principle; public and
private decisions should be guided by:
1. [a] careful evaluation to avoid, wherever practicable, serious or irreversible damage to
the environment; and
2. an assessment of the risk-weighted consequences of various options.
The principle institutionalizes caution. It recognizes that clear yes-no answers are rarely
available and that decisions must be made in the face of uncertainty. Unfortunately, the
principle does not define how cautious policy makers should be. Therefore, a response global to
warming using the precautionary principle will be far more a moral and political issue than a
scientific one.
Lesser and Dodds frame the global climate change issue in terms of our obligation to future
generations. "Broadly speaking, our actions today should not harm or increase risks to future
generations. We should be fair to future generations by not denying them the opportunity to be
at least as well off as we are because of our actions. We should also pass on our institutions and
values. Finally, we should pass on specific assets that are important to our way of life, much as
past generations passed on to us. " One difficulty with this approach is how widely to define
harm. For example, we clearly will pass on to our children more advanced medical capabilities
than our parents passed on to us. Should, or should not this fact balance part of the
environmental damage we cause. A second difficulty with this approach involves guessing what
assets future generations will value. Some of the assets we pass on will be highly valued while
others will not. Unfortunately, there is no way to know which category an asset will fall into.
The OTA (1991) argues the need for mitigation measures given the length of time greenhouse
gas emissions will affect the climate.
We cannot yet predict the magnitude of climate effects from greenhouse gas emissions with
accuracy. But it is clear that the decision to limit emissions cannot await the time when the
full impacts are evident. The lag time between emission of the gasses and their full impact
is on the order of decades to centuries; so too is the time needed to reverse any effects.
Today's emissions thus commit the planet to changes well into the 21st century. And the lag
times between identification ofpolicy options, legislation of controls, and actual
implementation can also be considerable. For example, the recent re-authorization of the
Clean Air Act took 10 years; implementation of the Act will begin now and continue over
the next 10 to 20 years, (emphasis added)
Another factor critical to greenhouse gas mitigation decisions is expectation about future
technological capabilities. One who is a technology optimist envisions a future where abundant
low-cost, carbon free renewable resources supply energy to highly efficient end-use
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Global Warming Action Plan
technologies. There is little need for immediate cutbacks since future generations will need little
help in adapting to a carbon constraint. The pessimist foresees a society heavily dependent on
carbon-intensive synthetic fuels. For this person, it makes sense to begin carbon dioxide
abatement now.66
An additional consideration is how climate responds to rising greenhouse gas levels. Figure 3
demonstrates three hypothetical response paths. For path "A" temperatures initially rise quickly
with increasing carbon dioxide levels and then levels off67 Path "C" is just the opposite. The
temperature affect accelerates as greenhouse gas levels rise. Path "B" assumes temperature
responds linearly to elevated greenhouse gas levels. The effect of greenhouse gas mitigation
strategies will vary significantly depending
on which response path climate change
follows.
Assume the globe is committed to a
greenhouse gas level denoted by the light
dashed line. If temperatures follow path "A,"
then most of the temperature rise is a feit
accomplis and aggressive action to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions is probably not
warranted. A temperature response along
path "C" where each successive unit of
emissions has a larger effect indicates a need
for heroic efforts to reduce emissions. Path
"B" is the most difficult to determine the
right amount of control. Here, projections of
the consequences of climate change will
likely determine the appropriate response.
Unfortunately, the path which climate change
follows is not known. An additional
consideration is that the temperature path of climate change does not necessarily give a good
indication of the environmental consequences. The consequences of climate change likely
increase faster than temperature—a 2 to 3°C rise in temperature is more significant than a rise
from 1 to 2°C.
This situation is not an easy one for policy planners. As stated above, waiting risks irreversible
damages while immediate action risks large expenditures to mitigate potentially inconsequential
changes. At this point the appropriate response is not clear. Nevertheless, drawing upon the
discussion above, this report offers the following framework for policy makers developing a
response to global climate change:
1. Actively purse those mitigation strategies that are cost effective for reasons other than their
greenhouse gas reduction benefits.
66From Manne A. and R. Richels, Buying Greenhouse Insurance: The Economic Costs of Carbon Dioxide
Emission Limits, The MIT Press, 1992.
67 Ramanathan reports that at 300 ppm carbon dioxide is "optically thick, and hence its greenhouse effect scales
logarithmically with concentration." What this means is that radiative forcing diminishes as concentrations rise.
This does not necessarily mean, however, that the effect on temperature also diminishes. Global temperature
change depends on the complexities of climate feedbacks as well as changes in radiative forcing .
Figure 3
Alternative Temperature Responses to
Rising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
I
a
I
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Global Warming Action Plan
2. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are investments in the future of the state and
nation. As an investment, the mitigation program must compete with other claims on state
resources (e.g., education, welfare programs, police and fire protection, etc.)
3. The use of cost effectiveness criteria to develop a mitigation program is essential. Changes
in energy, industrial, land use, agriculture, and forestry practices range from cost savings to
very expensive. Obtaining the largest emission reduction at the lowest cost is sensible.
4. The expected consequences of global climate change should drive the scope and stringency
of a mitigation program.
5. Any mitigation program should consist of a diverse portfolio of programs to protect against
unexpected economic and emission effects.
6. Given the uncertainties surrounding climate change, the state should consider carbon dioxide
controls as insurance against as yet unknown consequences.
7. The state should commit to better understand the effects of climate change and to further
develop greenhouse gas mitigation options. A better understanding of climate change
reduces the need to hedge against the uncertainty and improved conservation technologies
will enhance our ability to deal with surprises should they occur.
Finally, with regard to specific concerns within Washington perhaps the best policy makers can
do is to identify and develop response plans for those activities/environments most sensitive to
climate change. In this way the state can help minimize adverse climate change consequences
should they come about.
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Global Warming Action Plan
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