The

EPA Automotive
Trends Report	

Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Fuel Economy, and
Technology since 1975

Executive Summary

United States
Environmental Protection
Agency

EPA-420-S-23-002 December 2023


-------
This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions, positions, or validation of
compliance data reported to EPA by manufacturers. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues
using data that are currently available and that may be subject to change. Historic data have been
adjusted, when appropriate, to reflect the result of compliance investigations by EPA or any other
corrections necessary to maintain data integrity.

The purpose of the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to
inform the public of technical developments. This edition of the report supersedes all previous versions.


-------
Executive Summary

This annual report is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) commitment
to provide the public with information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers' performance in meet-
ing the agency's GHG emissions standards.

Since 1975, EPA has collected data on every new light-duty vehicle model sold in the United
States either from testing performed by EPA at the National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions
Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan, or directly from manufacturers using official EPA test
procedures. These data are collected to support several important national programs,
including EPA criteria pollutant and GHG standards, the U.S. Department of Transportation's
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) standards, and vehicle Fuel Economy and Environment labels. This expansive data
set allows EPA to provide a uniquely comprehensive analysis of the automotive industry
over the last 45+ years.

The carbon dioxide (C02) emissions and fuel economy data in this report fall into one of
two categories. The first is compliance data, which are measured using laboratory tests
required by law for CAFE and adopted by EPA for GHG compliance. The second is estimated
real-world data, which are measured using additional laboratory tests to capture a wider
range of operating conditions (including hot and cold weather, higher speeds, and faster
accelerations) encountered by an average driver. This report shows real-world data, except
for discussions specific to GHG compliance starting on page ES-9 in this summary and
Section 5 of the report.

All data in this report for model years 1975 through 2022 are final and based on official
data submitted to EPA and NHTSA as part of the regulatory process. In some cases, this
report will show data for model year 2023, which are preliminary and based on data
provided to EPA by manufacturers prior to the model year. These preliminary data include
projected production volumes, which may change significantly before being finalized.

This report reflects the current light-duty GHG and fuel economy regulations as finalized
by EPA and NHTSA, including updated standards through model year 2026. Any applicable
regulatory changes finalized by EPA and NHTSA will be included in future versions of this
report. To download the full report, or to explore the data using EPA's interactive data
tools, visit the report website at www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.

ES-1


-------
New vehicle CO2 emissions and fuel economy had the
biggest annual improvement of the last 9 years, reaching
record low CO2 emissions and record high fuel economy

In model year 2022, the average estima-
ted real-world C02 emission rate for all
new vehicles fell by 10 g/mi to 337 g/mi,
the lowest ever measured. Real-world
fuel economy increased by 0.6 mpg to a
record high 26.0 mpg. This is the largest
single year improvement in C02 emission
rates and fuel economy in nine years.

Since model year 2004, C02 emissions
have decreased 27%, or 123 g/mi, and
fuel economy has increased 35%, or
6.7 mpg. Over that time, C02 emissions
have improved in fifteen of eighteen
years. The trends in C02 emissions and
fuel economy since 1975 are shown in
Figure ES-1.

Preliminary data suggest that C02
emissions and fuel economy in model
year 2023 will improve from 2022. These
data are shown in Figure ES-1 as a dot
because the values are based on manu-
facturer projections rather than final data.

Figure ES-1. Estimated Real-World Fuel
Economy and C02 Emissions

.E

3
w
c
o

(f)

E

LU

o
o

ro

0)

(Z

600 -

500 -

400 -



































































337g/m

MY 2022





































•



O

Q_

>>
E
o
c
o
o
LU

T3

_o

CD

DH

24 -

20

16

1975

1985

1995 2005
Model Year

2015

2025

The four largest vehicle types are at record low CO2
emissions; however, long term market shifts away
from cars and towards sport utility vehicles (SUVs]
have offset some of the fleetwide benefits

In this report, vehicles are disaggregated into five vehicle types: sedan/wagon, car SUV,
truck SUV, pickup truck, and minivan/van. The distinction between car and truck SUVs is
based on regulatory definitions where SUVs that are four-wheel drive (4WD) or above a
weight threshold (6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight) are generally regulated as trucks and

ES-2


-------
classified as truck SUVs for this report. The remaining two-wheel drive (2WD) SUVs are sub-
ject to car standards and classified as car SUVs. In model year 2022, four of the five vehicle
types had their lowest C02 emissions and highest fuel economy ever. Car SUVs decreased
C02 emissions by 27 g/mi, pickups decreased by 18 g/mi, sedan/wagons decreased by
11 g/mi and truck SUVs decreased by 4 g/mi. Minivan/vans, which accounted for less than
3% of new vehicle production in model year 2022, were the only vehicle type that had
higher C02 emissions in 2022 compared to 2021, increasing by 17 g/mi.

For many years the overall new vehicle market has been trending away from the sedan/
wagon vehicle type and towards a combination of truck SUVs and car SUVs. However, in
model year 2022, the market share for both car SUVs and truck SUVs fell by about one per-
centage point compared to model year 2021. Given the longer-term trends and projected
data for model year 2023, this does not appear to be a reversal of market trends. The long-
term trend away from sedan/wagons and towards vehicle types with lower fuel economy
and higher C02 emissions has offset some of the fleetwide benefits that otherwise would
have been achieved from the improvements within each vehicle type.

The sedan/wagon and car SUV vehicle types must meet the car standards under EPA's light-
duty GHG regulations, while truck SUVs, pickups, and minivan/vans must meet separate
truck standards. In model year 2022, 37% of all new vehicles were cars and 63% of all new
vehicles were trucks under EPA's light-duty GHG regulations. This is the highest percentage
of trucks since at least 1975 and is projected to increase further in model year 2023.

Figure ES-2. Production Share and C02 Emissions by Vehicle Type

100% -

800

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Model Year

2025

200

Sedan/
Wagon

Car
SUV

Truck
SUV

Minivan/
Van

Pickup

ui
ro
O

m

o

=5

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Model Year

ES-3


-------
Average new vehicle fuel economy, horsepower,
weight, and footprint are all at record highs

Overall vehicle trends are influenced both by vehicle technology and design, and by the
changes in the distribution of vehicles being produced. For a specific vehicle, increased
weight or horsepower is likely to result in higher C02 emissions and lower fuel economy, all
else being equal. Larger vehicles, in this case measured by footprint or the area enclosed by
the four tires, also tend to have higher C02 emissions and lower fuel economy. Footprint is
also the basis for determining regulatory standards under the GHG and CAFE regulations.
Electric vehicles produce zero tailpipe emissions; however, weight, horsepower, and
vehicle size can still impact the vehicle fuel economy (as measured in miles per gallon of
gasoline equivalent).

In the two decades prior to 2004,
technology innovation and mar-
ket trends generally resulted
in increased vehicle power and
weight (due to increasing vehicle
size and content) while average
new vehicle fuel economy steadily
decreased and C02 emissions
correspondingly increased. Since
model year 2004, the combina-
tion of technology innovation and
market trends have resulted in
average new vehicle fuel economy
increasing 35%, horsepower in-
creasing 23%, and weight increas-
ing 5%. Footprint has increased
6% since EPA began tracking it
in model year 2008. These met-
rics are all at historic highs and
are projected to increase again
in model year 2023, as shown in
Figure ES-3.

The changes within each of these metrics are due to the combination of design and tech-
nology changes within each vehicle type, and the market shifts between vehicle types. For
example, overall new vehicle footprint has increased within each vehicle type since model
year 2008, but the average new vehicle footprint has increased more than the increase in any
individual vehicle type over that time span, due to market shifts towards larger vehicle types.

Figure ES-3. Percent Change in Real-World Fuel
Economy, Horsepower, Weight, and Footprint

100%-

75%-

LO
h-

CD

(D
O
C

CO
(D
O)

c
03
-C

O

50% -

25% -

0%-

-25% -





















•























/ •







rceai-vvoria ruei Economy

























Horsepower





























•















Weigh



































1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Model Year

ES-4


-------
Fuel economy has also increased in all vehicle types since model year 2008, however
the market shift towards less efficient vehicle types has offset some of the fleetwide
fuel economy and C02 emission benefits that otherwise would have been achieved
through improving technology.

Most manufacturers have improved CO2 emissions
and fuel economy over the last 5 years

Manufacturer trends over the last five years are shown in Figure ES-4. This span covers
the approximate length of a vehicle redesign cycle, and it is likely that most vehicles
have undergone design changes in this period, resulting in a more accurate depiction of
recent manufacturer trends than focusing on a single year. Differences in manufacturer
C02 emission rates and fuel economy over this time period can be attributed to chang-
es in both vehicle design, and the mix of vehicle types produced.

Over the last five years, eight of the fourteen largest manufacturers selling vehicles
in the U.S. decreased new vehicle estimated real-world C02 emission rates. Tesla was
unchanged because their all-electric fleet produces no tailpipe C02 emissions. Between
model years 2017 and 2022, Toyota achieved the largest reduction in C02 emissions,
at 32 g/mi. Toyota decreased emissions across all vehicle types and decreased overall
emissions even as their truck SUV share increased from 27% to 38%. Kia achieved the
second largest reduction in overall C02 tailpipe emissions, at 21 g/mi, and Mercedes
had the third largest reduction in overall C02 tailpipe emissions at 14 g/mi. Hyundai,
Ford, Nissan, Stellantis, and VW also achieved overall emission reductions.

Five manufacturers increased new vehicle C02 emission rates between model years
2017 and 2022. Mazda had the largest increase at 22 g/mi, due to a shift in production
from 29% to 85% truck SUVs, along with increased C02 emission rates within their
sedan/wagon vehicle types. General Motors (GM) had the second largest increase at 17
g/mi, and Honda had the third largest increase at 7 g/mi. Shifts in production towards
larger vehicles combined with increased C02 emission rates for pickups more than
offset emission improvements in all other vehicle types for GM and Honda.

For model year 2022 alone, Tesla's all-electric fleet had by far the lowest tailpipe C02
emissions of all large manufacturers. Tesla was followed by Hyundai at 302 g/mi, Kia at
306 g/mi, and Honda at 309 g/mi. Stellantis had the highest new vehicle average C02
emissions and lowest fuel economy of the large manufacturers in model year 2022,
followed by GM and Ford. Tesla also had the highest overall fuel economy, followed by
Hyundai at 29.1 mpg, Honda at 28.7 mpg, and Kia at 28.6 mpg.

ES-5


-------
Figure ES-4. Changes in Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy1 and C02 Emissions for Large Manufacturers

Fuel Economy (MPG), 2017 - 2022

CO, Emissions (g/mi), 2017 - 2022

Tesla -

i

Hyundai -
Honda -
Kia -
Subaru -
Toyota -
Nissan -
Mazda -
VW-
BMW -
Mercedes -
Ford -
GM -
Stellantis -
All Manufacturers -

98.2-

-~119.3

-I-

60

80

100

120









28.6^29.1

OP 7 i	OQ A





















0-7 1

-t

ft











27.9^28.5

W Q-7 O







25

o









Q^.07 A











c- i ¦











26

-<26.4
5.8











¦3^5







23.0—>23.8

OO QW?^ 1

















22.04—22.8
21:>21.3



































24.9

—>

26.0









50





100

150

302-4-311
302*309
306-4	32"

¦2-IOW2-I Q











































o *



¦31

i1







322^3-

1ft WOO

0

5

336

1	?>3





3(









333
a











1-1















371-4-^385
380-4-388
388	

























~406
415-<420

























337



357









20

24

28

32

300

350

400

450

1 Electric vehicles, including Tesla's all-electric fleet, are measured in terms of miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent, or mpge.

u

ES-6


-------
Manufacturers continue to use a wide array of
advanced technologies

Innovation in the automobile industry has led to a wide array of technology available to
manufacturers to achieve C02 emissions, fuel economy, and performance goals. Figure
ES-5 illustrates manufacturer-specific technology usage for model year 2022, with larger
circles representing higher usage rates. The technologies in Figure ES-5 are all being
used by manufacturers to, in part, reduce C02 emissions and increase fuel economy.
Each of the fourteen largest manufacturers have adopted several of these technologies
into their vehicles, with many manufacturers achieving very high penetrations of several
technologies. It is also clear that manufacturers' strategies to develop and adopt new
technologies are unique and vary significantly. Each manufacturer is choosing technol-
ogies that best meet the design requirements of their vehicles, and in many cases, that
technology is changing quickly.

Engine technologies such as turbocharged engines (Turbo) and gasoline direct injection
(GDI) allow for more efficient engine design and operation. A growing number of engines
can use GDI or port fuel injection (GDPI) depending on conditions - these engines are
included with GDI engines in Figure ES-5 for the first time this year. Cylinder deactivation
(CD) allows for use of only a portion of the engine when less power is needed, while
stop/start systems can turn off the engine entirely at idle to save fuel. Hybrid vehicles
use a larger battery to recapture braking energy and provide power when necessary,
allowing for a smaller, more efficiently operated engine. The hybrid category includes
"strong" hybrid systems that can temporarily power the vehicle without engaging the
engine and smaller "mild" hybrid systems that cannot propel the vehicle on their own.
Transmissions that have more gear ratios, or speeds, allow the engine to more
frequently operate near peak efficiency. Two categories of advanced transmissions
are shown in Figure ES-5: transmissions with seven or more discrete speeds (7+Gears),
and continuously variable transmissions (CVTs).

In model year 2022, hybrid vehicles reached a new high of 10% of all production. Strong
and mild hybrid production grew, with mild hybrids accounting for 41% of overall
hybrid production. The combined category of electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid
vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCVs) increased from 4% of production
in model year 2021 to 7% of production in model year 2022 and are projected to reach
12% of production in model year 2023. This trend will likely continue as EV production is
expected to grow across the industry in coming years.

ES-7


-------
Figure ES-5. Technology Share for Large Manufacturers, Model Year 2022

Tesla ¦

Hyundai

Honda¦

Kia ¦

Subaru

Toyota ¦

Nissan

Mazda¦

VW-

BMW-

Mercedes ¦

Ford

GM

Stellantis ¦

All Manufacturers¦

25% 72%

13%

100%

23% 64% 37%	9%	4%

39% 69% 30% 64% 36% 77% 10%

27% 68%

31% 100%

6% 78%

16% 85%

24% 100% 44%

81% 93%	3%

97% 97%

90% 97%	3%

28% 53% 49%	3%	6%

94%

8% 27%

73%

38% 42% 25% 22%

66% 32% 12%

90% 72% 17%

96% 58% 29%

97% 64% 30%

78% 88% 21%	4% 91% 60%

49% 94% 49% 11% 72% 76%

1% 96% 47%

37% 73% 16% 26% 59% 50%

6%

17%

10%

0%

2%

2%

0%

8%

8%

3%

4%

2%

5%

7%

	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	

Turbo GDI or Cylinder CVT 7+Gears Non-Hybrid Hybrid PHEV/
GDPI Deactivation	StopStart	EV/FCV



ES-8


-------
Through the model year 2022 reporting period, all
large manufacturers are in compliance with the light-
duty GHG program requirements

EPA's GHG program is an averaging, banking, and trading (ABT) program. An ABT program
means that the standards may be met on a fleet average basis, manufacturers may earn
and bank credits to use later, and manufacturers may trade credits with other manufac-
turers. This provides manufacturers flexibility in meeting the standards while accounting
for vehicle design cycles, introduction rates of new technologies and emission improve-
ments, and evolving consumer preferences.

Within a model year, manu-
facturers with average fleet
emissions lower than the stan-
dards generate credits, and
manufacturers with average
fleet emissions higher than the
standards generate deficits.
Any manufacturer with a deficit
at the end of the model year
has up to three years to offset
the deficit with credits earned in
future model years or purchased
from another manufacturer. A
manufacturer may not report
deficits for more than 3 years in
a row.

Figure ES-6. GHG Credit Balance for Large Manufacturers,
after Model Year 2022

Stellantis
Honda ¦
Subaru -
GM -
Toyota -
Ford -
Mercedes ¦
BMW-
Nissan -
Hyundai ¦
i/olkswagen -
Tesla

Mazda

Kia -

Credits Expiring 2027
Credits Expiring 2026
Credits Expiring 2025
Credits Expiring 2024
Credits Expiring 2023
Deficits from 2022
Deficits from 2021
Deficits from 2020

10

20

30

GHG Credits (Tg of CO.)

Thirteen of the fourteen largest
manufacturers ended model
year 2022 with positive or zero
credit balances and are thus in
compliance for model year 2022
and all previous years of the
GHG program, as credits may
not be carried forward unless

deficits from all prior model years have been resolved. Kia ended model year 2022 with
a deficit, which is their second straight model year reporting a deficit. Kia must offset all
deficits by the model year 2024 reporting period to remain in compliance.

40

ES-9


-------
Total credits in Figure ES-6 are shown in Teragrams (Tg; one million Megagrams), and
account for manufacturer performance compared to their standards, expected vehicle life-
time miles driven, and the number of vehicles produced by each manufacturer, for all years
of the GHG program. The credits accumulated by each manufacturer will be carried for-
ward for use in future model years or until they expire. Credit expiration dates are based
on the model year in which they were earned.

Manufacturers used different combinations of technology
improvements and credit strategies in model year 2022

Determining manufacturer compliance with EPA's GHG program requires accounting for a
manufacturer's credit balance over the life of the program. However, it is also useful to look
at manufacturer performance within the most recent model year. Figure ES-7 illustrates
the performance of individual large manufacturers in model year 2022 compared to their
effective overall standard, in terms of an average vehicle grams per mile emission rate. This
"snapshot" provides insight into how the large manufacturers performed against the stan-
dards in model year 2022, however it cannot be used to determine individual manufacturer
compliance status with the overall program.

Figure ES-7. C02 Performance and Standards by Manufacturer, Model Year 2022

400

300-

200

100-

0

-100-

Below Standard Above Standard
<	 	~

I259I

42oT> ^



-CD- Standard
I Performance

vy//





ES-10


-------
Tesla, Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, Ford, and Subaru ended model year 2022 with their average
new vehicle GHG emissions performance below their respective standards. This result,
combined with the fact that these manufacturers all had a credit balance at the end of
model year 2021, allowed these manufacturers to achieve compliance with the GHG
program through model year 2022 and bank or sell additional credits in model year 2022.

Eight of the fourteen large manufacturers ended model year 2022 with emission perfor-
mance above their overall standard. Seven of these manufacturers used banked or
purchased credits, along with technology improvements, to achieve compliance in model
year 2022. As noted above, Kia ended the model year with deficits, but the program
allows manufacturers up to three years to offset any deficits and remain in compliance.

The manufacturer performance values shown in Figure ES-7 are based on the average new
vehicle tailpipe emissions for each manufacturer and include optional credits available to
manufacturers in model year 2022 for improved air conditioning systems or technologies
that are not directly measured on standard EPA tests (off-cycle credits). These credits vary
between manufacturers, but the industry averaged 21 g/mi of credits due to improved air
conditioning systems, and 9 g/mi of credits due to off-cycle technologies. Tesla produces
electric vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions, but also claimed air conditioning and off-cycle
credits to achieve the negative performance value shown in Figure ES-7.

The overall industry generated credits, adding to a
large bank of credits for future years

The industry ended model year 2022 with a credit balance of 134 Tg. This credit balance
is the result of the overall industry performance against the standards within each model
year, as well as the generation of early credits, credit expirations, and the sum of all credit
averaging, banking, and trading allowed by EPA's GHG program. Under the GHG Program,
manufacturers were able to accrue "early credits," before the GHG standards took effect
in model year 2012, for early deployment of efficient vehicles and technology. Overall, the
industry was able to accrue a large volume of credits due to this provision, although some
of these credits had restrictions on their use, and all credits have regulatory expiration
dates. In model years 2012 through 2014, manufacturers continued to generate credits, as
the industry GHG performance was below the industry-wide average standard. At the end
of model year 2014, unused early credits generated from model year 2009 expired, which
reduced the overall credit balance. In model year 2015, the industry again generated
credits, however from model year 2016-2021 the industry GHG performance was above
the standard, resulting in net withdrawals from the bank of credits to maintain compliance.
In addition, unused credits generated in model years 2010-2016 expired at the end of
model year 2021, which further drew down the overall industry credit balance.

ES-11


-------
Figure ES-8. Industry Performance and Standards, and Overall Credit Balance

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

400-
350-

300-

o 250-I

O)

H

m 200-

O 150-
CD

O 100-
50-
0-

43

42

33

Credit or Deficit
¦ Credit
Deficit

25

-28

-16

234

-76

-3

-23

Expiration of unused
2009 credits

-17

v 3

134

Expiration of unused -82
2010-2016 credits

Early 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Carry

Credits	.. , . x/	to 2023

Model Year

In model year 2022, the overall industry GHG performance fell 6 g/mi to 233 g/mi, while the
standard fell 4 g/mi to 234 g/mi. As a result, the overall industry performance was below
the standard for the first time since model year 2015, and the industry generated about 3 Tg
of credits. The overall industry emerged from model year 2022 with a bank of 134 Tg of
GHG credits available for future use, as seen in Figure ES-8.

ES-12


-------
The credits available at the end of model year 2022 will expire according to the schedule
defined by the GHG Program and detailed in Section 5 of this report. The next group of
credits to expire will be credits earned in model year 2017, which will expire at the end of
model year 2023. An active credit market has allowed manufacturers to purchase credits to
demonstrate compliance, with ten manufacturers selling credits, fourteen manufacturers
purchasing credits, and approximately 110 credit trades since 2012. As of October 31, 2023,
about 194 Tg of credits have been traded between manufacturers.

The automobile industry continues to innovate,
improve, and meet the GHG standards

The analysis here is a snapshot of the data collected by EPA in support of several important
regulatory programs and is presented with the intent of providing as much transparency
to the public as possible. The data show the change and innovation in the industry since
model year 1975, and the manufacturers' performance under EPA's GHG standards.

To download the full report, or to explore the data using EPA's interactive data tools, visit
the report webpage at www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.

ES-13


-------