FORECASTING AIR QUALITY OVER THE UNITED STATES Kenneth L. Scheie*, Atmospheric Modeling Division / RTP, NC National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development On assignment from the Ar Resources Laboratory, National Oceanic andAmospheric Adnhistration, U.S. Department of Commerce NOAA AND EPA COLLABORATE ON AIR QUALITY FORECASTING Increased public awareness of air quality issues has led to recent demand for short-term forecasts of air quality. NOAA's National Weather Serve e (NWS) and U.S. EPA have begun a partnership to produce and operate a national system to provide air quality forecast guidance. A Memorandum of Agreement defines the roles of the organizations, including partnerships with state and local agencies and the private sector who produce tailored air quality forecasts for their communities (see figure below). The initial operational system will provide guidance on ground-level ozone for the northeastern U.S. by the end of 2004. Simplifying EHAS Oju Atuiagmmtrt twtft Digital Dashtxaitis, p. 12 The forecast system will be extended to include fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and the geographical coverage will be extended to the continental U.S. over the next 5-7 years. 1-day air quality forecast guidance will be provided twice daily to support state and local agencies who issue local forecasts of the Air Quality Index (AQI), based upon the model guidance and other air quality data. PARTNERSHIPS IN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING NOAA > Devel op and evaluate tools for national/state/local air quality foie casting > Proyde ope rational air quality model sand forecast pollutant concentration fields with national coverage J EPA > Mai n tai n cu rrent nati on al emissions inventory > Maintain national air quality monitoring databases > Dsseminate^nterpret national air qu ali t y f ore ca st i nfo rm ati on - AQI and links to public health STATES / LOCALS > Proyde stated oca I emisa on s data > Provide stated oca I air quality monitoring data > Provide local AQI Ibrecastsfwamings PUBLIC and COMMERCIAL SECTORS HOW WILL IT WORK? NOAA/NWS runs their operational weather prediction model, Eta-12, for the U.S. four times daily. Air quality predictions are made each day beginning with the 8:00 a.m. (EDT) weather model output. EPA provides source emissions data, air quality monitoring data and the air quality model (Community Multiscale Air Quality model, CMAQ) developed by NOAA and EPA researchers. NOAA/NWS runs CMAQ using forecasted weather information from Eta-12, along with source emissions data, to produce gridded predictions of air quality, initially for the northeastern U.S. Forecast guidance is available by 1:30 p.m. EDT and extends through the following day. A later prediction cycle is run overnight, to proMde guidance for morning updates. Example of Forecast Winds from ETA Model Example of Forecast Ozone from CMAQ Model ETA Layer 1 Winds CMAQ Layer I l f T State and local air management agencies, as well as commercial interests, "pull" the forecast guidance from NOAA/NWS computers and issue local AQI forecast. WHO WILL USE THE FORECASTS? Asthmatics, the elderly, parents of young children, and others concerned about short-term health impacts of poor air quality Government and industry officials who consider taking actions to reduce source emissions during periods of poor air quality Commercial print, TV, and radio media outlets to broadcast the forecast information to the public Ozone Air Quality Index Air Quality Air Quality Index Good 0-50 Moderate 51-100 Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups 101-150 Unhealthy 151 -200 Very Unhealthy 201 -300 Generally, an ADI of 100for ozone corresponds to an ozcne le/el of 0.08 parts per million (averaged o/er8 houis). IOMD0B) ------- |