New York City Adapts To Deal with Projected Increase of Heat Waves
Oepa .gov/arc-x/new-york-city-adapts-deal-projected-increase-heat-waves
Heat waves are one of the leading weather-related causes of death in the Unites States. According to New York City's
vulnerability assessment, this vulnerability is expected to worsen with climate change. New York City has taken substantive
actions to reduce its current vulnerability (i.e., increasing its resiliency to current conditions) as well as its future vulnerability
(i.e., adapting to the projected future climatic conditions).
In order to promote resiliency, NYC is increasing use of cooling centers and supports outreach through the Be-a-Buddy
Program to share life-saving information with particularly vulnerable populations. In order to adapt to future increases in
temperature, the city promotes green infrastructure, reforestation and reflective, or "cool" roofs, to moderate the urban heat
island effect and reduce the severity and frequency of future projected extreme heat events. New York City is continuing to
evaluate their climate vulnerability and the effectiveness of its adaptation actions using the most up-to-date information.
How Did They Do It? Applicable EPA Tools
Assess climate vulnerability within Climate Risk Information Report (2013)
• New York City (NYC) derived temperature and precipitation projections using
a matrix of 35 Global Climate Model simulations under two Representative
Concentration Pathways
° Learn more at USGCRP Models.
• NYC analysis identified an average baseline of 2 heat waves per year
between 1970-2000. Under the 90th percentile high estimate, the number of
heat waves could increase to up to 7 per year by 2050 and the number of
days over 90°F could triple from an 18 average baseline to 57 by 2050.
• NYC Incorporated this climate risk within local hazard mitigation plans and
supported actions to reduce vulnerability and adapt to climate changes.
The National Climate Assessment
Future Climate Section can provide
a broad projection of temperature
change and extreme heat risk for
your region based upon emissions
scenarios.
National Climate Assessment
Future Climate Section
Promoted resiliency to current extreme conditions, particularly for vulnerable
populations
• NYC promotes resiliency through outreach efforts to particularly vulnerable
populations including the elderly, the poor, and those already suffering from
chronic illnesses. One example, the "Be-a-Buddy Program" shares life-
saving information with vulnerable residents. This and other similar programs
constitute resiliency actions as they reduce vulnerability under current
conditions, and can be scaled accordingly, but do not reduce the level of
increased future climate risk.
CDC's Assessing Health
Vulnerability to Climate Change
helps identify the communities most
at risk, including the elderly, infirm,
and communities dealing with
environmental justice challenges.
Assessing Health Vulnerability to
Climate Change (PDF) (24 pp, 4.3
MB, )
* (This is a non-EPA resource from
the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention.)
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How Did They Do It?
Applicable EPA Tools
Implemented adaptation actions that provide co-benefits to air quality, wate
management and emergency preparedness
• NYC implemented several adaptation actions to address the increasing risk
of heat events including promoting 'cool roofs,' urban forestry initiatives, and
other strategies to prepare for the projected increase in future heat waves,
including reducing urban heat island effect.
• NYC Cool Roofs Program trains local individuals to work with a team to coat
city rooftops with a white reflective coating. In its recent 2013 Annual Report,
the NYC Cool Roofs Program had "cooled and coated" 2,077,537 square
feet of rooftop by utilizing over 1,000 local volunteers and funding from
corporate and individual donations, sponsorships, and local government.
• NYC adopted the Million Trees initiative to plant 1 million trees in the city by
2017. This action anticipates the future climate change risks and provides
adaptation benefits for reducing the urban heat island, as well as resulting in
greenhouse gas mitigation benefits.
Evaluating performance and risk under the best-available science
• The city partnered with the Princeton Plasma Physics laboratory to help
analyze, evaluate and quantify its climate resiliency, adaptation and
mitigation actions.
• The city updated its vulnerability assessment in 2015 ("Building the
Knowledge Base for Climate Resiliency"), including projecting climate risk out
to 2100 for the first time.
Similar Cases
To see how New York conducted a vulnerability assessment for climate change and extreme heat events, view the NYC Heat
Plan case. Remember, extreme heat events and other weather extremes can disproportionately impact at-risk or vulnerable
communities, to view a case study that identifies and actively engaged vulnerable communities in adaptation planning for heat
events, view Chicago Heat Emergency Response. To see how a community has used green infrastructure to both reduce the
impact of future extreme heat events and reduce stormwater runoff during extreme precipitation events, view Chicago Green
Infrastructure to Reduce Heat.
• NYC Heat Plan case
• Chicago Heat Emergency Response
References
• NYC Cool Roofs: 2013 Annual Report (PDF) (13 pp, 12 MB, )
• Heat Related Brief (PDF) (3 pp, 257 K)
• NYC Panel on Climate Change: Climate Risk Information 2013, Observations, Climate Change Projections, and Maps
(PDF) (38 pp, 1.2 MB) Exit
• NYC Climate and Health Profile (PDF) (3 pp, 16 K)
EPA's Excessive Heat Events
Guidebook helps identify extreme
heat resilience and adaptation
strategies. For more on using green
infrastructure to provide co-benefits,
see the "Reduce the Urban Heat
Island Page."
The Green Infrastructure to Reduce
Urban Heat Island Effect webpage
provides resources to model and
evaluate the performance of green
infrastructure strategies that reduce
the urban heat island effect.
Green Infrastructure to Reduce
Urban Heat Island Effect
US Climate Resilience Toolkit: Extreme Heat
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US Climate Resilience Toolkit: Extreme Heat
New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report, Chapter 5: Public Health Impacts and Resiliency (PDF) (22 pp,
994 K)
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