External review draft, October 24, 2018
Air and Energy National Research Program
Strategic Research Action Plan, 2019 - 2022
External Review DRAFT
October 24, 2018 version
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Table of Contents
List of Acronyms ii
Executive Summary 3
Introduction 5
Research to Support the EPA Strategic Plan 5
Statutory and Policy Context 8
Environmental Problems and Program Purpose 9
Problem Statement 11
Program Vision 11
Program Design 12
Building on the 2016-2019 Program 13
Solutions-Driven Research 16
Integration Among Research Programs 18
Research Program Objectives 20
Research Topics 25
Topic 1: Science for Air Quality Decisions (AQD) 26
Topic 2: Extreme Events and Emerging Risks (E3R) 33
Topic 3: Next-Generation Methods to Improve Public Health and the Environment (NGM) 36
Cutting Across All Research Topics: Wildland Fires 40
Anticipated Research Accomplishments and Projected Impacts 41
Conclusion 44
Appendices 46
Appendix 1: Summary Table of Proposed Outputs for the Air and Energy Research Program (FY2019-
2022) 46
Appendix 2: State Needs Reflected within ORD/A-E Research Planning 53
Appendix 3: Cross-cutting Research Issues 55
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List of Acronyms
ACE Air, Climate, and Energy
A-E Air and Energy
AFO Animal feeding operation
AQD Air Quality Decisions
AQMEII Air Quality Model Evaluation
International Initiative
ASTHO Association of State and Territorial
Health Officials
BMP Best management practice
CAA Clean Air Act
CBP Chesapeake Bay Program
CDC Centers for Disease Control
CERCLAComprehensive Environmental
Response, Compensation, and Liability
Act
CMAQ Community-Multiscale Air Quality
Model
CO Carbon monoxide
CRADA Cooperative Research and
Development Agreement
CSS Chemical Safety for Sustainability
CWA Clean Water Act
DOE Department of Energy
DOI Department of Interior
E3R Extreme Events and Emerging Risks
EA Environmental Assessments
ECOS Environmental Council of States
EIS Environmental Impact Statements
EISA Energy Independence and Security Act
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
ERIS Environmental Research Institute of the
States
FEM Federal Equivalent Method
FRM Federal Reference Method
FWPCA Federal Water Pollution Control Act
FY Fiscal year
GCRA Global Change Research Act
HABs Harmful algal blooms
HAPs Hazardous air pollutants
HEI Health Effects Institute
HHRA Human Health Risk Assessment
HSRP Homeland Security Research Program
HTAP Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution
LRTAP Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution
MACT Maximum achievable control
technology
MESA Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis
NAAQS National ambient air quality standards
NADP National Atmospheric Deposition
Program
NEHA National Environmental Health
Association
NEI National Emissions Inventory
NEPA National Environmental Policy Act
NGM Next-Generation Methods
NHLBI National Heart, Lung, and Blood
Institute
N02 Nitrogen dioxide
NOx Oxides of nitrogen
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
NSR New Source Review
NTAA National Tribal Air Association
03 Ozone
OAR Office of Air and Radiation
OECA Office of Enforcement and Compliance
Assurance
OLEM Office of Land and Emergency
Management
ORD Office of Research and Development
OTAQ Office of Transportation and Air Quality
OW Office of Water
Pb Lead
PFAS Per-and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances
PM Particulate matter
PSD Prevention of Significant Deterioration
RCRA Resource Conservation and Recovery
Act
SBIR Small Business Innovative Research
SDWA Safe Drinking Water Act
SGCR Subcommittee on Global Change
Research
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SHC
Sustainable and Healthy Communities
SIP
State Implementation Plan
S02
Sulfur dioxide
SOA
Secondary organic aerosol
SSWR
Safe and Sustainable Water Resources
STAR
Science to Achieve Results
StRAP
Strategic Research Action Plan
TDEP
Total Deposition
TSC
Tribal Science Council
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change
USFS United States Forest Service
USGCRP U.S. Global Change Research Program
VOCs Volatile organic compounds
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Executive Summary
This Air and Energy (A-E) Strategic Research Action Plan, 2019-2022 (A-E StRAP) outlines research to
address the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) strategic objectives and mandates to
improve air quality, reduce the number of areas currently in nonattainment of the national ambient air
quality standards (NAAQS), and protect public health and the environment. Approximately 120 million
people in the United States live in counties that do not meet the NAAQS for at least one of the six
criteria air pollutants, even as emissions of these pollutants have been reduced by more than 70 percent
over the past 45 years. Other emerging air pollutants, growing impacts from sources such as wildfires,
and changes to the nation's energy portfolio and in environmental conditions more broadly (for
example., land use change, transportation, climate change) further complicate our understanding of the
measures needed to improve air quality now and into the future. These increasingly complex problems
require innovative thinking and sustainable solutions to ensure that EPA can protect human health and
the environment. Research conducted by the A-E Research Program provides partners in EPA program
and regional and regional offices, states, and tribes and other stakeholders with the knowledge base and
the tools to make more informed decisions and to better understand the benefits and potential
consequences of those decisions.
The A-E Research Program is structured to provide research that addresses EPA priorities and mandates,
meets partners' and stakeholders' needs, fills knowledge gaps, and complements broader efforts across
the Federal government and the scientific community. The research portfolio has been developed with
considerable input from EPA partners in the regional and program offices, states, tribes, and other
outside stakeholder groups. The research planning also reflects interactions with the five other national
research programs within EPA's Office of Research and Development to address cross-cutting scientific
issues. The A-E research objectives are:
Research Objective 1: Assess Impacts Improve understanding of the processes regulating human
and ecosystem exposures and of the effects associated with air pollutants at individual, community,
regional, national, and global scales.
Research Objective 2: Expand Approaches to Prevent and Reduce Emissions Develop and
evaluate new approaches to prevent and reduce air pollution now and in the future, particularly
sustainable, cost-effective, and innovative multi-pollutant and sector-based approaches.
Research Objective 3: Advance Measurement and Modeling Improve the human exposure and
environmental modeling, monitoring, metrics, and information that are needed to address emerging
and future risks and inform air quality decision making at the national, state, tribal, and local levels.
Research Objective 4: Inform Decisions Deliver state-of-the-art science and tools to inform
implementation of the NAAQS and other air quality regulations and policies at the national, state,
tribal, and local levels.
The A-E Research Program will achieve these objectives and address specific scientific challenges by
developing and implementing research activities under three inter-related topics: (1) Science for Air
Quality Decisions; (2) Extreme Events and Emerging Risks; and (3) Next-Generation Methods to Improve
Public Health and the Environment. Many scientific issues cut across the entire A-E portfolio. One issue
in particular, wildland fires, draws from all three programmatic research topics.
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This A-E St RAP describes the research topics, overall structure, and purpose of the A-E Research
Program. The A-E Research Program will continue to engage with EPA partners as we work to identify
the specific products that will be developed to achieve the research area objectives and outputs
identified in the StRAP. This engagement will continue through implementing the research to ensure
that the products and innovative tools delivered by A-E scientists will inform our partners' and
stakeholders' work to improve and protect air quality, reduce the number of nonattainment areas
across the United States, improve public health and the environment, and meet broader EPA legal and
statutory mandates.
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Introduction
Despite decades of improvement in United States air quality, protecting human health and the
environment from the impacts of air pollution remains a challenge for the 21st Century. Approximately
120 million people in the United States live in counties that do not meet the national ambient air quality
standards (NAAQS) for at least one criteria pollutant, even as emissions of the six criteria air pollutants1
have been reduced by more than 70 percent over the past 45 years. This challenge is complicated by
interactions between air quality, global trends, and existing and emerging energy options. The U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Research and Development's (ORD) Air and Energy (A-
E) Research Program provides the science and engineering needed to inform actions that will improve
air quality and address the environmental impacts of energy development and use. The A-E Strategic
Research Action Plan (StRAP) is one of six research plans, one for each of EPA's national research
programs in ORD. The six research programs are:
Air and Energy (A-E)
Chemical Safety for Sustainability (CSS)
Homeland Security Research Program (HSRP)
Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA)
Safe and Sustainable Water Resources (SSWR)
Sustainable and Healthy Communities (SHC)
EPA's six strategic research action plans lay the foundation for EPA's research programs to provide
focused research that meets the Agency's legislative mandates and the goals outlined in the EPA and
ORD Strategic Plans (U.S. EPA, 2018a, b). The StRAPs are designed to guide an ambitious research
portfolio that delivers the science and engineering solutions the Agency needs to meet its goals now and
into the future, while also cultivating an efficient, innovative, and responsive research enterprise.
Research to Support the EPA Strategic Plan
EPA has been protecting public health and the environment from air pollution for almost half a century.
This record of success has been built on a strong scientific foundation to inform policy decisions and to
solve problems. Today, improving the nation's air quality remains a major EPA priority, especially for
those who reside in communities unable to fully meet air pollution standards or who may be at
increased risk due to health or socio-demographic reasons. Equally pressing is the Agency priority to
anticipate and prepare for future environmental conditions, which have significant negative implications
for human health and the environment. For example, changes in environmental conditions can affect
human health through extreme weather events, including extreme high temperatures, changing allergen
profiles, and potentially increased incidences of water-borne and vector-borne disease due to floods
and higher water temperatures. Anticipated increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events will likely place additional stresses on ecosystems, infrastructures, and economies, each
of which affects public health.
1 Criteria pollutants are those pollutants for which NAAQS have been established, which include particulate matter
(PM), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and lead (Pb).
(httpi//www. epa.gov/air/airpollutants. html).
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As part of its mission to protect human health and the environment, EPA is dedicated to improving air
quality in the United States. In support of this mission, the FY 2018-2022 EPA Strategic Plan (U.S. EPA,
2018a) identifies the Agency's strategic goals and objectives as summarized in Figure 1. The A-E
research portfolio is designed to address the current and future needs of partners and stakeholders as
they develop and implement policies to achieve goals and objectives outlined in the Agency strategic
plan. The EPA goals and objectives relevant to the A-E Research Program are summarized in Table 1 and
briefly discussed below.
A
A
Cooperative
Federalism
J
%
Improve Air Quality
Provide for Clean & Safe Water
Revitalize Land & Prevent Contamination
Ensure Safety of Chemicals in Marketplace
~ Enhance Shared Accountability
Increase Transparency & Public Participation
Rule of Law & Process
Compliance with the Law
Create Consistency & Certainty
Prioritize Robust Science
Streamline & Modernize
Improve Efficiency & Effectiveness
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Figure 1. EPA Strategic Plan (FY2018-2022)
Goal 1, Objective 1.1, "Improve Air Quality," prioritizes key activities to support attainment of the
NAAQS2 and implementation of stationary and mobile source regulations, as well as national and multi-
state programs. The A-E Research Program directly supports this core mission by continuing to develop,
evaluate, and apply methods and models to support air quality management programs and by providing
foundational science to inform decision making.
EPA Goal 2, "Cooperative Federalism," focuses on close communication with Agency regional and
program office partners, state and local agencies, and external stakeholders. ORD has been working to
strengthen its direct relationship with states through the Environmental Council of the States (ECOS) and
the Environmental Research Institute of the States (ERIS), and with tribes through the Tribal Science
Council (TSC) and other tribal organizations such as the National Tribal Air Association (NTAA). The A-E
team has met with these groups to discuss our research program and to better understand their
research needs. For example, Appendix 2 summarizes state research needs identified by ECOS. In
2 Section 109 of the Clean Air Act (CAA) identifies two types of national ambient air quality standards -primary
standards provide public health protection, including protecting the health of "sensitive" populations such as
children, older adults, and persons with pre-existing disease such as asthma or cardiovascular disease and
secondary standards provide public welfare protection, including protection against decreased visibility and
damage to animals, wildlife, soils, water, crops, vegetation, and buildings. Unless otherwise stated, in this
document the term NAAQS will refer to both primary and secondary standards.
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addition, over the past year, ORD implemented a Memorandum of Understanding with several public
health organizations, such as the National Environmental Health Association (NEHA) and the Association
of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), to better engage the states and disseminate research to
decision makers.
EPA Goal 3, Objective 3.3, "Prioritize Robust Science," emphasizes research and scientific analyses to
inform policymaking. For air quality, this objective states that the Agency will do the following over the
next five years:
Deliver state-of-the-art tools for states and tribes to use in identifying effective emission
reduction strategies to meet national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) and enhance air
quality measurement methods used to ascertain compliance with the NAAQS.
Assess human and ecosystem exposures and effects associated with air pollutants on individual,
community, regional, national, and global scales.3
Develop and evaluate approaches to prevent and reduce pollution, particularly sustainable, cost-
effective, and innovative multi-pollutant and sector-based approaches.
Provide human exposure and environmental modeling, monitoring, metrics, and information
needed to inform air quality decision making at the federal, state, tribal, and local level.
Table 1. Highlights of EPA Strategic Plan Goals and Objectives Relevant to the A-E Research Program
EPA Goal
EPA Objective
Goal 1 Core Mission: Deliver real results to
provide Americans with clean air, land, and
water, and ensure chemical safety
Objective 1.1 Improve Air Quality: Work with
states and tribes to accurately measure air quality
and ensure that more Americans are living and
working in areas that meet high air quality standards
Goal 2 Cooperative Federalism: Rebalance
the power between Washington and the
states to create tangible environmental
results for the American people
Objective 2.1 Enhance Shared Accountability:
Improve environmental protection through shared
governance and enhanced collaboration with state,
tribal, local, and federal partners using the full range
of compliance assurance tools
Objective 2.2 Increase Transparency and Public
Participation: Listen to and collaborate with
impacted stakeholders and provide effective
platforms for public participation and meaningful
engagement
Goal 3 Rule of Law and Process:
Administer the Law as Congress intended, to
refocus the Agency on its statutory
obligations under the law
Objective 3.3 Prioritize Robust Science: Refocus
the EPA's robust research and scientific analysis to
inform policy making
3 Beyond effects associated with ambient air exposures, consideration of potential human and ecosystem
exposures and effects associated with deposition of air pollutants to water and land are also evaluated.
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The Agency's mission to protect human health and the environment includes implementing air quality
standards. To support this mission, a major emphasis of the A-E Research Program is on better
understanding the impacts of air pollutants on human health and the environment and improving
ambient air pollutant monitoring, air quality models, and emissions measurement methods to inform air
quality management decisions. In addition, to support climate resiliency goals of state and local
agencies, as well as tribes and community organizations, EPA needs research to understand the effects
of extreme events on air quality, water quality, and, ultimately, human health and the environment.
Most of the research identified in this A-E StRAP is targeted at immediate needs of the EPA partners, but
there are also elements that are exploratory and anticipatory in nature and will lead to capabilities in
the future. For example, looking ahead to anticipate the needs of EPA partners and stakeholders under
Goal 1, the A-E research portfolio aims to gain insights into potential benefits of multi-pollutant air
quality management approaches and to understand how the energy system may evolve as technologies
advance, the environment changes, and new policies are developed.
A critical component of developing the A-E StRAP is soliciting input from EPA programs and regions,
state and tribal partners, and stakeholders. Input from our partners and stakeholders provides a clear
message that much of the current research and anticipated direction of the A-E Research Program
continues to address their needs and is responsive to the new EPA Strategic Plan.
Statutory and Policy Context
The A-E Research Program primarily responds to issues addressed in the Clean Air Act (CAA), as revised,
with additional responsibilities under the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007, the
Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990, the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA), and the
National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) as summarized in Table 2.
Table 2. Air and Energy Research Program Supports Decisions Mandated by Legislation
Legislation
Acronym
Website
Clean Air Act
CAA
https://www.gpo.gov/fdsvs/granule/USCODE-2010-
title42/USCODE-2010-title42-chap85
Energy Independence
and Security Act
EISA
https://www.gpo.gov/fdsvs/pkg/PLAW-
110publl40/pdf/PLAW-l 10publl40.pdf
Global Change Research
Act
GCRA
https://www.gpo.gov/fdsvs/pkg/STATUTE-104/pdf/STATUTE-
104-Pg3096.pdf
Federal Water Pollution
Control Act
FWPCA
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-
08/documents/federal-water-pollution-control-act-508full.pdf
National Environmental
Policy Act
NEPA
https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summarv-national-
environmental-policv-act
Title I of the CAA lists a broad portfolio of research to be conducted by EPA related to air pollution and
its health and environmental effects. Section 7403 of the CAA has ten subparts that list the research
and development responsibilities of EPA related to the prevention and control of air pollution. The CAA
states that EPA shall conduct research "related to the causes, effects (including health and welfare
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effects), extent, prevention, and control of air pollution." The CAA further requires that this include
"research, testing, and development of methods for sampling, measurement, monitoring, analysis, and
modeling of air pollutants" and research on "the short-term and long-term effects of air pollutants ... on
human health." Further research listed under the CAA includes efforts to "improve understanding of
the short-term and long-term causes, effects, and trends of ecosystems damage from air pollutants on
ecosystems." These research requirements set the scope of the A-E Research Program.
Under Section 204 of the EISA, EPA is responsible for reporting to Congress, on a triennial basis, on the
impacts to date and the likely future impacts on environmental and resource conservation issues from
the Renewable Fuel Standard requirements. The A-E Research Program is responsible, in partnership
with EPA's Office of Transportation Air Quality (OTAQ) within the Office of Air and Radiation (OAR), for
preparation of these reports.
Under requirements of the GCRA, EPA is one of thirteen federal agencies listed as members of the
Subcommittee on Global Change Research (SGCR; originally called the Committee on Earth and
Environmental Sciences in the GCRA). EPA contributes to the SGCR's responsibilities to develop a
national global change research plan, annual reports to Congress, and a mandated quadrennial
assessment of the causes and impacts of global change (the National Climate Assessment). Along with
the CAA mandate to conduct research on the impacts of air pollution on human health and ecosystems,
the A-E Research Program conducts research that contributes to meeting the requirements of the GCRA,
specifically related to the effects of global change on air quality, water quality, and ecosystems.
Because the long-term potential impacts of air pollutants in the context of global change rely upon tools
developed and used by A-E, the program also responds to the requirements of Section 302(g) of the
FWPCA to address threats to ecological and economic well-being of coastal areas associated with those
pollutants, including flooding that is affected by sea level rise.
NEPA requires federal agencies to assess the environmental effects of their proposed actions prior to
making decisions. Using the NEPA process, agencies evaluate the environmental and related social and
economic effects of their proposed actions. Agencies also provide opportunities for public review and
comment on those evaluations.
The policy context for the A-E Research Program closely follows the legislative context of the statutes
summarized above. The program provides scientific and technical information to support efforts by EPA
program and regional partners, state and local agencies, and tribes to develop and implement policies
required under the CAA, EISA, GCRA, FWPCA, and NEPA. These policies include review and
implementation of the NAAQS, development and review of ambient and source emission measurement
methods, evaluations of emission control technologies, assessment of hazardous air pollutant health
risks after application of maximum achievable control technology (MACT) standards, and development
of Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) and Environmental Assessments (EA).
Environmental Problems and Program Purpose
Ambient air pollution has significant adverse consequences on human health and the environment.
Research conducted and supported by ORD has demonstrated that exposure to air pollution can cause a
range of human health and environmental welfare effects. These include, for example, respiratory (e.g.,
asthma) and cardiovascular problems that can lead to disease and death in humans, and environmental
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impacts such as visibility impairment, deposition-driven eutrophication, and acidification in surface
waters.
Research conducted and supported by EPA has informed and enabled the nation's efforts to curtail air
pollution emissions and greatly improve air quality for more than 45 years. As illustrated in Figure 2,
aggregate national emissions of the six criteria air pollutants have been reduced by over 70 percent
from 1970 to 2017. This progress occurred while the United States economy continued to grow, as
indicated by more than a 262 percent increase in gross domestic product. Moreover, Americans drove
more miles, and population and energy use increased. Despite this success and the enormous public
health benefits that have come from these reductions, in 2016 there were still over 120 million
Americans (U.S. EPA, 2018a, p. 8) living in counties that do not meet current NAAQS for one or more
criteria air pollutants.
Comparison of Growth Areas and Declining Emissions
1970-2017
300%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Figure 2. Comparison of Growth Areas and Declining Air Emissions, 1970-2017.4
In addition to the existing challenges of improving air quality to meet the NAAQS, the environment is
always changing in response to different stressors. The observed increases in frequency and magnitude
of extreme events (such as heat waves and extreme precipitation) driven by changes in atmospheric
4 Source: EPA Air Trends Report (U.S. EPA, 2018c); figure available on-line at:
https://gispub.epa.gOv/air/trendsreport/2018/#growth w cleaner air
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conditions are affecting air quality, water resources, agriculture, wildlife, ecosystems, contaminated
sites, waste management practices, and the built environment (e.g., energy, water, and transportation
infrastructure) (USGCRP, 2017). These changing environmental conditions are threatening air quality
and may ultimately lead to detrimental human health and environmental impacts. For example, higher
average and peak temperatures are leading to higher concentrations of some air pollutants and
increasing stressors such as heat and allergens that may worsen asthma and other health outcomes
(USGCRP, 2016). In addition, the acres of wildlands that have burned annually are estimated to have
doubled in recent years (National Interagency Fire Center, 2016), and the contribution from these fires
to annual emissions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was estimated to be more than 30 percent in
2014 (U.S. EPA, 2016). Research on the health and environmental impacts of extreme events, as well as
research on potential adaptation measures, will help inform states, local governments, and tribes on
how to plan for and respond to changing environmental conditions and natural disasters.
To achieve and sustain healthy air quality for all Americans, EPA must continue advancing the scientific
understanding of air emissions, atmospheric processes, exposure, and effects. Such advances require an
in-depth understanding of the relationship between energy and the environment and of the impact of changes
in the mix of energy sources and technologies. Energy production and use represents the major source of air
pollution emissions; it also impacts water quality and demand, generates liquid and solid waste, and affects
ecosystems and the services they provide. The decades-long transition toward natural gas and renewable
resources, increasing electrification of industrial processes, and changes in the transportation sector will all
affect air pollution emissions and their subsequent health and environmental effects. The health and
environmental effects, whether positive or negative, of emissions related to energy production are very likely to
be different than what has been experienced in the past. Understanding the environmental trade-offs in the
use of different energy sources is crucial to developing and implementing future approaches to improve air
quality and reduce the impacts of changing environmental conditions.
The challenges that span the nexus of air, energy, and changing environmental conditions, as well as the
major related research needs identified by EPA partners and stakeholders, guide both the Problem
Statement that governs EPA's A-E strategic research, as well as its Program Vision.
Problem Statement
Air pollution adversely affects people's health and harms the economy and the environment. While the
nation has made substantial progress in improving air quality, millions of people still live in areas that do
not meet national standards and air pollutants continue to damage our health and our environment.
The gains of past decades are challenged by changing environmental conditions. To address these
problems, we need to expand understanding, information, and tools that enable air-quality managers
to: (1) identify and characterize air pollution sources; (2) assess air pollutant exposures and associated
health and environmental impacts; and (3) implement effective strategies to reduce air pollution and its
risks.
Program Vision
Advance the science needed to achieve clean air and attain the national ambient air quality standards,
which will protect human health and ecosystems throughout the United States.
The A-E Research Program builds on the foundation of past accomplishments to deliver the knowledge,
tools, and data needed for the future. A-E research efforts support policies that have had far-reaching
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positive impacts across the nation, including reducing health risks from air pollution, helping state and
local governments and tribes to build resilient and sustainable communities, and protecting the natural
environment upon which life depends, even as our population and economy has grown.
Program Design
The A-E StRAP provides both a vision and a blueprint for advancing the science for clean air and
environmentally-responsible energy options. It focuses research to achieve the legislative mandates
outlined in the relevant statutes briefly discussed above, and on meeting the Agency goals and priorities
identified in the EPA and ORD strategic plans. The A-E Research Program works closely with its Agency
partners and external stakeholders, including state and local agencies, tribes, sister federal agencies,
nonprofit organizations, and industrial and academic scientists, to identify and conduct research to
address the highest priority issues across the United States in order to meet the Agency strategic
measures as shown in Figure 3.
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Goal 1 Core Mission: Deliver real
results to provide Americans with clean
air, land, and water, and ensure
chemical safety
Goal 2 Cooperative Federalism:
Rebalance the power between
Washington and the states to create
tangible environmental results for the
American people
Goal 3 Rule of Law and Process:
Administer the law as Congress
intended to refocus the Agency on its
statutory obligations under the law
ORD
ORD \ Strategic^
Strategic ) Research
Plan / Action
Plans
Figure 3: ORD's Strategic Research Action Plans are driven by EPA's Strategic Goals and Objectives to
contribute to EPA's Strategic Measures
The A-E Research Program strategically integrates intramural and extramural research efforts to create a
robust portfolio. Scientists representing a wide range of disciplines work together to improve our
understanding of complex environmental problems. Internally, the A-E Research Program engages with
scientists across multiple ORD laboratories and centers. Innovative research collaborations with EPA
regional offices (for example, through the Regional Applied Research Effort [RARE] program and the
Regional Research Partnership Program [R2P2]) allow A-E researchers opportunities to work with
Agency partners on a number of applied science projects to address high-priority, region-specific science
needs.
ORD
Research
Outputs
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Extramural research funded through grants and contracts complements and expands the intramural
research program by providing invaluable engagement between the Agency and the nation's leading
scientists and engineers. Integral to ORD's efforts to address environmental research priorities,
extramural research engages the scientific community to help address important scientific knowledge
gaps and to strategically respond to current and emerging environmental and public health challenges.
The Science to Achieve Results (STAR) grants program is a key extramural component of the A-E
Research Program. Previous awards have engaged academic researchers on a broad range of issues
advancing our understanding of atmospheric chemistry, air quality modeling and measurements,
epidemiology, toxicology, and climate-related impacts. In addition, since 1999 the A-E Research
Program has funded a number of university-based research centers through larger, multi-year grants.
These research centers have contributed to a greater understanding of the health impacts of particulate
matter (PM), determined how specific sources of air pollution cause different health effects, and
answered questions about the health impacts from exposure to multiple air pollutants. Beginning in
2016, the A-E Research Program funded three Air, Climate, and Energy (ACE) Centers to identify new
integrated and multidisciplinary solutions for protecting air quality and public health in the midst of a
changing climate and evolving energy technologies.
Another key component of extramural research is public-private partnerships, which can provide high-
quality, impartial science on the health effects of air pollution. By serving as a neutral party, a public-
private partnership can sponsor independent science to inform decision-making. Such partnerships are
typically formed as nonprofit entities that receive balanced funding from the government and from a
regulated industry. In recent years, one well-regarded partnership has advanced scientific
understanding in areas such as: multipollutant science; impacts of policies and regulations; and,
potential impacts of emerging fuels and technologies.
To a more limited extent, the A-E Research Program has entered into research partnerships through
Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs). Small businesses have also been funded
to develop and commercialize novel environmental technologies that support EPA's mission through the
Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program. A-E researchers are also exploring the use of open-
source challenges and prize competitions, citizen science and crowd-sourcing, social science, and other
emerging, innovative avenues to investigate and address environmental science problems.
Building on the 2016-2019 Program
This plan builds upon and continues to advance the research outlined in the 2016-2019 Air, Climate, and
Energy (ACE) StRAP. Guided by the previous plan, A-E researchers have moved the state of the science
forward and provided benefits to public health and the environment, as evident in the following
examples:
Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Air Pollution Study - In 2004, EPA awarded a STAR
research grant to the University of Washington to study how air pollution affects the development
of cardiovascular disease in healthy people. The MESA prospective cohort study investigated
cardiovascular impacts among more than 6,000 participants over a 10-year period. The researchers
reported in 2016 that long-term exposure of people to everyday air pollution accelerates the
progression of coronary artery disease. The results are significant from both clinical practice and
policy perspectives, emphasizing long-term prevention of exposure to air pollution as a strategy to
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mitigate or delay the onset of cardiovascular disease.
Helping States Reduce Non-Attainment Areas - Many areas within the United States still face
challenges meeting one or more NAAQS. Fundamental science gaps remain in understanding the
unique chemistry and meteorology specific to these locations. These science gaps hinder states'
ability to improve air quality. Advanced monitoring research, in collaboration with states, helps
develop effective solutions by providing valuable insights into the complex interactions between
emissions, chemistry, and meteorology in these nonattainment areas. Partnering with state
agencies, short-term intensive field studies were designed to address ozone issues in states
bordering Lake Michigan and the Long Island Sound and to understand high wintertime PM2.5
concentrations around Salt Lake City, Utah. The insights gained in these studies are helping states
improve air quality and public health.
Community-Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) - CMAQ is a powerful computational tool for air
quality management. The EPA continuously updates CMAQ to reflect fundamental advances in
physical science research. Revised versions of CMAQ, regularly issued by EPA5, allow users in states,
regional planning organizations, and international organizations to simulate air quality in and around
metropolitan areas, identify air pollution hot spots, and develop potential remediation strategies
using the most current science. CMAQ links meteorological and emissions models to simultaneously
model multiple air pollutants, which helps air quality managers determine the best pollution
management strategies for their communities, regions, and states. For example, state and local
decision makers used CMAQ data to maintain and achieve clean air that prevented an estimated
2,000 premature deaths per year and 50,000 cases of respiratory ailments in children nationwide
(U.S. EPA, 2014). CMAQ also informed analyses conducted to estimate climate impacts on air
quality and health for the Climate and Health Assessment (USGCRP, 2016) and the Fourth National
Climate Assessment6 being developed by the USGCRP.
Reducing the Environmental Public Health Burden of Wildfires - Within the last decade, wildfires
have increased in frequency and intensity and now burn more than 7 million acres annually within
the United States, which is 40 percent more than in previous decades. Wildland fires7 are a national
challenge impacting public health and the environment, as well as the economy. EPA has provided
leadership on this issue by conducting research to improve affected communities' understanding of
wildland fire emissions. EPA has also provided improved air quality modeling of wildland fire plume
rise, transport, and chemical evolution. States impacted by wildland fires require this information to
make timely decisions. EPA also conducted toxicological studies to differentiate how the different
5 CMAQ v5.2.1 was released in March 2018. Learn more at: httpsi//www.epa.gov/cmaq.
6 Learn more about the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) at http$i//www,globalchange,gov/nca4.
7 Wildland fires occur in relatively natural, undeveloped areas that may include agricultural areas (for example,
rangelands) and suburban forests near residential areas. Structures, if any, are widely scattered in these areas.
Wildfires are any fires started by an unplanned ignition caused by lightning, volcanoes, other acts of nature,
unauthorized activity, or accidental, human-caused actions, or a prescribed fire that has developed into a wildfire.
Prescribed fires are any fires intentionally ignited by management actions in accordance with applicable laws,
policies, and regulations to meet specific land or resource management objectives. Prescribed fires include
agricultural burning for crop management, as well as fires used for forest management (See 40 CFR 50.1) (See 40
CFR50.1)
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phases of combustion impact human health and how wildland-fire smoke impacts human health
compared with a typical urban environment. This research informed the development of an
updated Wildfire Smoke: A Guide for Public Health Officials (U.S. EPA, 2016b), as well as an
innovative Smoke Sense mobile application. The Smoke Sense application provides information on
air quality and provides users with strategies to protect their health from wildland fire smoke
exposure.8
Evaluating Urban Resilience - Urban infrastructures are highly interconnected. There are many
systems that supply us with our daily needs, including housing, food, water, energy, safety,
communication, and more. If one of these systems is negatively affected, all the others can be
impacted and become vulnerable. To decrease vulnerabilities and increase resilience, we must
understand how our systems' vulnerabilities affect each other and how the systems are affected by
changing environmental conditions and extreme weather events. Working with state and local
planners and managers, EPA developed a comprehensive, transparent, and flexible tool that cities
can use to identify the greatest risks, successes, and priorities for decreasing urban vulnerability and
increasing resilience to climate change (U.S.EPA, 2017). Case studies were conducted with
Washington, DC and Worcester, MA. The tool provided visualizations that helped interpret case
study results and assisted city managers in implementing climate change adaptation activities. This
approach can be applied to a variety of different cities to help target and prioritize adaptation
planning.
Input from EPA program and regional office partners provides a clear message that much of the current
research and anticipated direction of the A-E Research Program continues to address Agency needs and
is responsive to the new EPA strategic plan. The A-E Research Program will continue to:
Enhance tools for states, local agencies, and tribes to inform emissions reduction strategies
Improve methods and models for multi-scale air quality management
Improve monitoring and modeling tools to characterize the relationship between ambient air
quality, deposition, and multimedia ecosystem impacts
Improve monitoring methods for source emissions, ambient air, and human/ecological
exposures, including use of air pollution sensors
Improve monitoring methods for source emissions, ambient air, and human/ecological
exposures, including use of air pollution sensors
Advance methods to evaluate risks and inform decision making in a changing environment
Expand capabilities to understand risks related to extreme events and emerging air pollutants,
such as per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)
Enhance understanding of wildland fire impacts on air quality, exposures, health, and
ecosystems
Improve energy-system scenarios development and evaluation
8 A-E researchers are conducting a citizen science study using the Smoke Sense application to determine the extent
to which exposure to wildland fire smoke affects health and productivity and to evaluate health risk
communication strategies during smoke days. Learn more at: https://www.epa.gov/air-research/smoke-sense-
study-citizen-science-proiect-using-mobile-app.
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Expand translation of research and the format of deliverables so that they are useful for EPA
partners and key external stakeholders
To more efficiently and effectively address critical research questions and more clearly align with the
FY2018-2022 EPA Strategic Plan, the A-E Research Program is updating its structure to organize research
into the following three inter-related topics:
1. Science for Air Quality Decisions
2. Extreme Events and Emerging Risks
3. Next-Generation Methods to Improve Public Health and the Environment
Many scientific issues cut across these three A-E topics. Figure 4 is a conceptual diagram illustrating the
intersection of the topics, using wildland fires as an example of an integrated science focus that draws
from each topic. The topics and specific research areas within each topic are described in more detail in
the Research Topics section below.
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1) Planned partner and stakeholder engagement throughout the research process, starting with
problem formulation and informing all elements of research planning, implementation,
dissemination, and evaluation
2) A focus on solutions-oriented research outputs identified in collaboration with partners and
stakeholders
3) Coordination, communication, and collaboration both among ORD researchers and between
researchers and partners to develop integrated research that multiplies value to partners and
stakeholders
4) Application of research outputs in cooperation with partners and stakeholders to solve complex
environmental problems, and to test the feasibility, appropriateness, meaningfulness, and
effectiveness of the research-driven solutions
ORD will also study how we engage with our stakeholders and partners and how we design and conduct
our research to inform solutions to their most pressing environmental problems. By doing this, we are
engaging in translational science, which will continually improve and increase the value of our research
to our partners and stakeholders. Translational science is a widely practiced approach developed by the
National Institutes for Health (https://ncats.nih.gov/) to "understand the scientific and operational
principles underlying each step of the translational process," which moves science along the path from
lab research to practical solutions in real world circumstances.
ORD is adopting a 3-pronged strategy for solutions-driven research:
1) Apply principles of solutions-driven research broadly across ORD's six national research
programs
2) Conduct pilot translational science projects that apply and evaluate methods of solutions-driven
research to planning, conducting, applying, and evaluating integrated research that addresses a
well-defined and unmet need of partners and stakeholders
3) Conduct case studies of previous and current research activities that embody the principles of
solutions-driven research, which will help inform a list of best practices
Risk communication is a central factor in solutions-driven research, allowing people to understand their
risks and adopt protective behaviors, as well as informing risk management decisions. ORD will
emphasize advances in the science of risk communication and will apply best practices for
communicating risk to different audiences across the six national research programs.
Consistent with Objective 3.3 in EPA's Strategic Plan, ORD will work with our partners and stakeholders
to identify the most important environmental and public health problems they face and then provide
the high-quality science they need to address those problems9. ORD will continue to support our
research outputs after they are delivered to our partners and stakeholders, and in doing this, ORD will
evaluate the usefulness and effectiveness of our research in helping solve environmental and public
health problems.
9 U.S. EPA. 2018. FY 2018-2022 EPA strategic plan. February 12.
https://www.epa.eov/sites/production/files/2018-02/documents/fv-2018-2022-epa-strategic-plan.pdf
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Integration Among Research Programs
EPA's six research programs work together to identify and address science challenges. Coordination
efforts can range from formal integration across the programs, to collaboration among EPA scientists
working on related issues. There are many opportunities for integration among the programs, and the
research programs will continue to work together to identify additional opportunities. Based on feedback
from EPA program and regional partners, state and local agencies, tribes, other federal agencies, and
ORD scientists, the A-E Research Program is coordinating with other EPA national research programs in
several areas. These include:
Wildland Fires
Wildland fires are a persistent and pervasive multimedia issue. Wildland fires affect air and water
quality in and around the locations of fires, as well as more broadly. A changing environment also
increases the likelihood and severity of wildfires and changes the optimal window for the prescribed
burning season. Research in this area involves multiple ORD research programs, specifically A-E, SSWR,
SHC, HSRP, and CSS. A-E research will focus on improving our understanding of wildland fire impacts on
public and environmental health and informing approaches to reduce associated risks. This will include
improving models and measurement methodologies to assess emissions and determine impacts,
determining what ecosystems and human populations are susceptible and vulnerable to wildland fires,
developing approaches to mitigate risks to human health and ecosystems, and developing health risk
communication strategies. Because wildland fires can also affect drinking water quality through
increased sedimentation, mobilization of heavy metals and other pollutants, and shifts in treatment
processes and associated effects, A-E and SSWR will work together to address this cross-media issue.
This cross-cutting project will provide information needed by utilities to anticipate and respond to
wildfire impacts, with SSWR emphasizing drinking water resources and small drinking water systems.
HSRP will also contribute to ORD's work on wildland fires by researching fate and transport of
contaminants during wildland fires, for example, fire in asbestos-contaminated areas.
Nutrients
The cross-ORD Nutrient effort led by SSWR is focused on reducing the nutrient loadings that can cause
adverse environmental impacts (e.g., degradation of drinking, source, and recreational waters from
harmful algal blooms). The nutrient research effort uses an approach that spans multiple types of water
bodies and groundwater resources, and coordinates across media (water, land, and air) and various
temporal and spatial scales. This effort develops and applies scientific information and tools for
partners and stakeholders to develop cost-effective approaches to nutrient reduction. This research
addresses statutory obligations under the CWA, SWDA, and CAA and is designed to support EPA's Office
of Water (OW), OAR, Office of Land and Emergency Management (OLEM), regions, and cross-Federal
Agency efforts. ORD's nutrient research priorities are: (1) assessing and managing harmful algal blooms;
(2) providing the science needed to set effective nutrient-related water quality goals; (3) providing tools,
technologies, and best practices to predict, monitor, manage, and assess effectiveness of efforts to
reduce nutrients; and (4) synthesizing information and developing tools that address atmospheric
nutrient deposition impacts (e.g.,, eutrophication and acidification) on terrestrial and aquatic resources.
A-E research directly supports the last priority by characterizing deposition of airborne nitrogen
compounds to watersheds and waterbodies that may contribute to harmful algal blooms.
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PFAS
The cross-ORD PFAS research program develops and applies scientific information and tools so that
partners and stakeholders can make informed decisions to protect public health and the environment
from harm associated with PFAS. It supports cross-EPA and cross-federal agency efforts to address
PFAS. This research addresses statutory obligations under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA), the
Clean Water Act (CWA), CAA, the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), and the
Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). The four goals of
ORD's PFAS action plan are: (1) understanding human health and ecological effects of PFAS; (2)
understanding PFAS occurrence, fate and transport, and exposure; (3) reducing, removing, and
remediating PFAS in the environment; and (4) supporting stakeholders in protecting public health and
the environment. A-E research will focus on developing and applying sampling and analytical methods
as well as modeling approaches to assess the emissions, fate, and transport of PFAS in the atmosphere.
Resilience
The cross-ORD resilience effort is focused on preparing for and recovering from disasters, including
extreme weather events. This work helps meet the safety and resilience goals of EPA regions and
programs and ORD's state, tribal, and community stakeholders. Adequate preparation for and recovery
from disasters requires a complete picture of an affected system. During a disaster, certain events can
cause cascading problems that may be missed by examination from the perspective of a single-media
program, highlighting the importance of integration on this issue across ORD's research programs.
ORD's resilience research will deliver metrics, methods, and tools that EPA partners and stakeholders
can use to assess their own vulnerability to, preparedness for, and response and recovery from
environmental releases and other conditions due to extreme weather and other disasters. ORD's
research will advance the assessment of trends in and development of future scenario products for
disasters for EPA clients (A-E), and address resilience and preparedness with respect to immediate
emergency response (HSRP), long-term planning for resilient communities (SHC), contaminated site
remedies (SHC), and watersheds and water infrastructure (SSWR).
A-E and the other national research programs have additional research activities that complement each
other by focusing on different facets of related public health and environmental problems. These
efforts are briefly summarized in Appendix 3.
Lead
Lead (Pb) is a priority research issue given its prevalence in the environment, harmful neurological and
other health effects and impacts on the most vulnerable, particularly children. Lead is one of the six
criteria air pollutants for which EPA has established NAAQS. The CAA requires that the Agency
periodically review the science upon which the NAAQS are based and the standards themselves. EPA
completed its most recent review of the Pb NAAQS in 2016.10 Priority areas of lead research for our
partners in the Office of Air and Radiation include new information related to assessments and
biomodelling research. This work is carried out by our colleagues in the Human Health Risk Assessment
(HHRA) Research Program. In addition, our colleagues in the Sustainable and Healthy Communities
10 Learn more about the most recent review of the Lead NAAQS at: https://www.epa.gov/lead-air-
pollution/national-ambient-air-quality-standards-naaqs-lead-pb.
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(SHC) Research Program are incorporating the air pathway into their multimedia modeling efforts on
lead. While air exposures are not a high priority as a national problem, there can be local exposures
from specific sources. A-E will work collaboratively with our colleagues in HHRA and SHC to ensure
impacts from lead in the air are addressed by ORD.
Research Program Objectives
The overall goal for the A-E Research Program is to advance the science and provide information critical
for improving air quality and addressing impacts that are influenced by changes to the nation's energy
portfolio, technological advances, and environmental conditions. Moreover, the A-E Research Program
is aimed at providing strategies and solutions to reduce exposures and risks from air pollution. The A-E
Research Program is structured to provide research results that fulfill EPA mandates and priorities, meet
the needs of partners and stakeholders, fill knowledge gaps within broader efforts across the Federal
government, and complement research being conducted by the larger scientific community.
The program is strategically divided into four broad research objectives that flow from the FY2018-22
EPA Strategic Plan. The work supported through the A-E Research Program addresses EPA's goal of
improving the nation's air quality and emphasizes efforts to focus on the highest priorities identified by
partners and stakeholders.
The following research objectives encompass the breadth and diversity of the A-E Research Program's
portfolio:
Research Objective 1: Assess Impacts Improve understanding of the processes regulating
human and ecosystem exposures and of the effects associated with air pollutants at individual,
community, regional, national, and global scales.
Research Objective 2: Expand Approaches to Prevent and Reduce Emissions Develop and
evaluate approaches to prevent and reduce air pollution now and in the future, particularly
sustainable, cost-effective, and innovative multi-pollutant and sector-based approaches.
Research Objective 3: Advance Measurement and Modeling Improve the human exposure
and environmental modeling, monitoring, metrics, and information that are needed to address
emerging and future risks and inform air quality decision making at the national, state, tribal,
and local levels.
Research Objective 4: Inform Decisions - Deliver state-of-the-art science and tools to inform
implementation of the NAAQS and other air quality regulations and policies at the national,
state, tribal, and local levels.
Consistent with the principles and characteristics of all ORD research programs, the A-E Research
Program objectives and challenges outlined below will provide effective and innovative solutions to
environmental problems. As described below, each research objective addresses a range of science
challenges to further focus the expertise and research activities of technical staff to meet the overall
strategic vision of the program.
Objective 1: Assess Impacts
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Research Objective: Improve understanding of the processes regulating human and ecosystem
exposures and of the effects associated with air pollutants at individual, community, regional, national,
and global scales.
The effects of air pollutants on public health and the environment occur at multiple scales and result
from exposures to a mixture of pollutants in the atmosphere. In addition to other factors, exposures
and human and environmental effects are also impacted by complex interactions between climate and
air quality.
One of EPA's primary responsibilities is to set, periodically review, and, if appropriate, revise the NAAQS
for pollutants commonly found in outdoor air that are emitted from numerous diverse sources and are
considered harmful to public health and the environment. Currently, EPA has established NAAQS for six
criteria air pollutants - carbon monoxide, lead, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, particulate matter, and sulfur
dioxide. The establishment and review of the NAAQS is a complex undertaking, involving synthesis of
the extensive science on human and ecosystems impacts of air pollution. The A-E Research Program
works closely with the Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) Research Program in carrying out the
research needed to inform the NAAQS reviews.
The effects of a changing environment on air and water quality are characterized by complex synergies
between human and natural systems. Social and economic factors also impact the nature and degree of
exposures and the resulting health and ecological effects that may occur. For example, many states
have experienced an increase in intensity and duration of wildfires with serious impacts on human
health, ecosystems, and air quality. People living near and downwind from fires may be affected by
smoke exposures, with impacts that vary by what and how materials are burning, their individual
susceptibility and vulnerability, the duration and level of exposure, and other factors.
Factors that put people or ecosystems at risk from exposure to air pollution (e.g., lifestage, pre-existing
disease, genetics/epigenetics, and socioeconomics) must be considered to fully assess impacts, inform
air quality management decisions, and target risk communication strategies aimed at reducing
exposures to and risks from air pollution. These factors are also important as communities assess how
best to adapt to extreme weather events that are expected to increase over time.
New and innovative methods and models are needed to assess the multiple chemical and non-chemical
interactions that ultimately impact public health and welfare. To inform their decision making,
stakeholders and partners need quantitative assessments that describe exposures and potential human
and ecosystem effects associated with air pollutants and that also describe the impacts of changing
environmental conditions on human health, air quality, and water quality. There are also
unprecedented quantities of health and exposure data resulting from new technologies and the growing
popularity of citizen science and individualized medicine, and innovative approaches are needed to
enhance the assessment of this vast amount of data. The A-E Research Program has a strong
commitment to translate the science it produces to better inform decisions, development of regulations,
policies, and advisories to reduce risks associated with air pollution.
Science Challenges:
Address key uncertainties and data gaps to inform future reviews of the NAAQS
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Develop innovative approaches for assessing human and environmental exposures and effects of
pollutants in the atmosphere
Advance understanding of the potential impacts of emerging and future risks to human health,
air quality, water quality, ecosystems, and built infrastructure
Identify the biological, environmental, social, behavioral, and economic characteristics that put
populations and ecosystems at increased risk of effects from exposure to air pollutants and the
associated impacts of a changing climate
Identify the social, behavioral, and economic factors that may hinder the ability of communities
and individuals to prepare and implement adaptation strategies for changes in climate
Characterize the multipollutant exposures, effects, and integrated impacts of dynamic
environmental conditions on health, air and water quality, and ecosystems
Objective 2: Expand Approaches to Prevent and Reduce Emissions
Research Objective: Develop and evaluate new approaches to prevent and reduce air pollution, now and
in the future, particularly sustainable, cost-effective, and innovative multi-pollutant and sector-based
approaches.
When making environmental decisions, decision makers are challenged by the complex environmental,
economic, and social interactions of various management options. These challenges highlight the need
for innovative approaches that include economic and social factors to maximize public health benefits
while preventing and reducing emissions, meeting environmental standards, and gaining improvements
in air quality, human health, and the environment.
As a result of this complexity, there is a growing need for cost-effective, multipollutant strategies that
prevent air pollution without unintended environmental, economic, or social consequences. Decision
makers are exploring approaches that simultaneously address multiple pollutants as an alternative to
the one-pollutant-at-a-time approach. For example, sector-based approaches can more hoiistically
assess environmental concerns and develop focused solutions specific to energy production,
transportation, and other sectors. To ensure the best outcomes for public health and the environment,
we must understand the full life-cycle health and environmental impacts of technology and
management options in each sector, as well as the economic, social, and cultural factors that can impact
uptake and sustained use of these options.
Another important aspect of air quality management is that emissions of air pollution in one location
can have impacts in other locations - at local, regional, national, and international scales. Expanding our
understanding of long-range transport of air pollutants from international sources is an important
consideration to inform U.S.-based policies to improve domestic air quality. For example, A-E
researchers are working with an international task force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution
(HTAP) to improve methods to quantify global influences on regional air quality. A-E researchers are
also working with HTAP to evaluate and better understand air pollution control options and their
impacts at the intercontinental to global scales. This includes collaborative efforts between North
American and European regional-scale air quality modeling efforts through the Air Quality Model
Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). These efforts will inform the Convention on Long-range
Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) and other international efforts to reduce air pollutants and related
impacts.
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Identifying the most cost-effective and sustainable approaches to achieve environmental outcomes also
requires consideration of economic and social factors. The success of a strategy to prevent or reduce
pollution depends not only on the effectiveness of the technical approach, but also on social, behavioral,
and economic factors that affect the willingness of people or institutions to adopt the strategy.
Science Challenges:
Advance the science of air pollution dynamics and chemistry to improve the assessment of
related health and ecological effects and to support the management of air pollution problems
across different scales of time and space.
Develop methods and obtain data to conduct life-cycle analyses of alternative pollution
reduction and energy sources. This will inform decisions made by EPA and other local, regional,
national, and international organizations to ensure more sustainable and cost-effective
environmental protection.
Evaluate control technologies and identify best practices for more efficient integrated and
sustainable pollution reduction and prevention solutions, while taking into account relevant
social, behavioral, and economic factors.
Objective 3: Advance Measurement and Modeling
Research Objective Improve human exposure and environmental modeling, monitoring, metrics, and
information needed to address emerging and future risks and to inform air quality decision making at the
national, state, tribal, and local levels.
Expanding our knowledge of the sources of air pollutants, how they are transported through the
environment, and how people and ecosystems are exposed will lead to more effective and targeted air
quality management solutions. As environmental conditions change over time, air pollution transport
and exposures will be affected. Measurement and modeling sciences are key to understanding current
air pollution exposures and emerging and future risks.
Environmental monitoring technology is rapidly evolving, showing great advances from year to year.
The availability of new advanced monitoring technologies, spanning from lower-cost, emerging sensors
to high-end complex instruments, is increasing. In many cases, these newer technologies are used to
complement traditional regulatory monitoring methods. Lower-cost technologies are growing in
popularity with a wide range of users who are interested in near-real time information at finer local
scales. The rapid advance of lower cost sensors, although not currently targeted at regulatory
applications, has created more efficient ways for EPA, industry, state and local agencies, and tribes to
track leaks and emissions, conduct research, identify hotspots, and prioritize where to monitor with
more sophisticated instrumentation. These new technologies have great potential for a number of
applications, such as improving information to enhance characterization of human exposures and
ground-truthing estimates from satellites and models with ground-level measurements. Uncertainty in
their performance overtime remains high, however, and requires greater focus on evaluation and data
quality. Questions also remain about how communities and individuals will use lower-cost sensors and
how data may be used to inform decisions.
Advances in air quality modeling and the integration of modeling simulations with observational data,
including ambient measurements, are needed to better understand air quality at a very local scale. This
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is because variations occur from neighborhood to neighborhood, and localized solutions may prove to
be highly effective. This research would include expanding knowledge of near-source impacts and
control strategies, including near-road environments, complex multi-source environments, and rail
yards, ports, and other transportation facilities. Improvements are also needed in modeling and
measurement capabilities to quantify and predict wildland fire impacts on air quality that can be used to
reduce risks to affected communities and individuals. Additional air quality modeling challenges are
presented by complex terrain and high elevations with valley inversions in winter, stratospheric
contributions to tropospheric ozone, and international pollutant transport. Changes at the global scale
can also affect air quality, and research is needed to improve the models that connect these global scale
changes to regional and local air quality. Additionally, environmental conditions continue to evolve as
the climate changes. EPA partners, states, tribes, communities, and individuals are interested in
understanding how changing temperatures will affect air quality, watersheds, and ecosystems, including
what the potential health and environmental impacts will be and where and to what extent these
impacts are likely to occur. Advances in monitoring and modeling methods, providing greater temporal
and spatial detail, near real-time local data, and plausible future scenarios can provide the information
needed to better prepare and adapt to future changes. EPA has an important role to play in providing
understandable and useful information to help a wide range of stakeholders prepare and implement
adaptation strategies.
Science Challenges:
Pursue and evaluate innovations in monitoring and modeling to:
(1) better characterize air pollution interactions across global, regional, local, and neighborhood
scales as well as various time scales;
(2) inform strategies to address emerging environmental problems caused by changing
atmospheric conditions; and
(3) enhance exposure assessments and science to inform decisions that reduce air pollution-
related risks associated with various sources
Evaluate preparedness and adaptation strategies to mitigate air pollutant and climate impacts
to protect at-risk populations, communities, and ecosystems.
Objective 4: Inform Decisions
Research Objective: Deliver state-of-the-art science and tools to inform decision making for
implementation of the NAAQS and other air quality regulations and policies at the national, state, tribal,
and local levels.
Decision makers across the country need accurate, timely, and reliable information and tools to make
sound decisions about environmental and public health protection. The A-E Research Program
recognizes the need to regularly engage with its partners and stakeholders and to effectively translate
and deliver robust and relevant research results to inform assessments, policy design, and
implementation activities, including implementation of the NAAQS.
States and tribes have the lead responsibility for implementing many air quality regulations. EPA
provides science and tools to assist these partners and other stakeholders in identifying, characterizing,
and understanding their air pollution problems. EPA also provides science and tools to evaluate and
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implement alternative management strategies to improve air quality and public health. The scope of
the tools and information developed by the A-E Research Program includes air quality models, data on
emissions of air pollution from a wide range of air pollution sources, measurement methods for
detection of air pollutants, and targeted studies of health and environmental impacts of air pollutants
under varying environmental conditions.
Science Challenges
Provide EPA partners, states, tribes, and others with scientifically-robust, user-friendly
information based on state-of-the-science measurement technologies and modeling methods to
support implementation of air quality regulations and policies.
Deliver information and methods to inform decisions by states, tribes, communities, and
individuals to prepare for, and adapt to, emerging and future risks of air pollution.
Research Topics
The four research objectives described above serve as the framework for identifying research topics to
focus the scope and nature of the A-E Research Program over the next four years. The vision and
program structure described in this A-E StRAP build on the previous 2016-2019 ACE StRAP and support
the Agency priorities as outlined in the FY 2018-2022 EPA Strategic Plan.
The A-E Research Program is updating its organization to improve integration across multiple scientific
disciplines and better leverage resources to more efficiently and effectively address critical research
needs, as well as enhance translation and accessibility of science to inform the decisions of Agency
partners and stakeholders. The program will be centered around three interconnected research topics
consisting of eight research areas, plus an integrated science research area focused on wildland fires
that cuts across all three research topics. The topics and research areas are shown in Table 3. The
research topics focus on meeting the research needs of EPA's partners and stakeholders, filling
knowledge gaps, and leveraging and complementing related efforts supported by ORD's other national
research programs, other federal agencies, and the broader scientific community. Proposed high-level,
strategic A-E outputs that are responsive to partners' needs are summarized by topic and research area
in Appendix 1. Outputs are deliverables with the research results synthesized and/or translated into the
format needed by the end user(s). Research to address partners' needs and contribute to the
development of these outputs is described in the research area descriptions below. The A-E research
portfolio outlined in this strategic plan closely coordinates intramural and extramural efforts to provide
a balance of fundamental and applied science to deliver outputs that are effectively developed and
translated to solve environmental problems.
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Table 3. Overview of Air and Energy Research Program Structure
Topic
Research Areas
Science for Air Quality
Decisions
#1: Approaches to support air quality management for
multiple pollutants at multiple scales
#9:
Wildland Fires
(Integrated
Science Focus)
#2: Approaches for characterizing source emissions, air
quality, exposure, and mitigation strategies
#3: Public Health and Environmental responses to air
pollution
Extreme Events and
Emerging Risks
#4: Public health and environmental exposures and
responses to emerging air pollutants and extreme
weather events
#5: Methods to evaluate environmental benefits and
consequences of a changing energy system
#6: Methods to enable resilience to future environmental
stressors
Next-Generation
Methods to Improve
Public Health and the
Environment
#7: Emerging approaches to improve air quality and
exposure characterization
#8: Novel approaches to assess human health and
ecosystem impacts and risks
Topic 1: Science for Air Quality Decisions fAQD)
Research under this topic will continue to provide science to inform decisions made by partners and
stakeholders to improve the nation's air quality, reduce the number of nonattainment areas, implement
and enforce stationary and mobile source regulations, and expand public health and welfare
protections. Science to inform air quality decisions directly relates to achieving all four of the A-E
Research Program Objectives discussed in the previous section. The A-E Research Program will provide
data, tools, and information to inform strategies to reduce air pollutant emissions, exposures, and
related risks to public health and the environment. The research conducted within the AQD topic area
will build upon and extend work conducted under the 2016-2019 ACE StRAP with necessary
modifications considering scientific and policy advancements that have been made over the past four
years. These efforts will also be closely connected, as appropriate, with work completed within the
other two research topics discussed below.
The evolution of the A-E Research Program includes a broader public health context focused on
delivering effective, relevant, and robust science to better explain and reduce uncertainties in observed
public and environmental health effects of air pollutants, and may offer more effective support for
adapting to climate change. The research under this topic will encompass a range of scientific
disciplines to produce integrated and comprehensive outputs that remain responsive, timely, and
useful. The A-E Research Program will continue to conduct research to assess multipollutant exposures
and health effects in field and laboratory settings. This work will include evaluating simple and complex
mixtures of particles, criteria gases, and organic compounds. Researchers will develop, evaluate,
modify, and apply models and methods to assess human and environmental exposures and impacts of
air pollution and associated climate-related changes at individual, community, regional, national, and
international scales. This work is the core that supports NAAQS development, review, and
implementation. These efforts are essential and will be continued through a range of intramural and
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extramural research activities (e.g., grants supported through the STAR program), as well as
collaborative efforts with other federal agencies, EPA program and regional partners, states, local
agencies, tribes, and other stakeholder groups.
Research Area 1: Approaches to Support Air Quality Management Programs for Multiple
Pollutants at Multiple Scales
The A-E Research Program will continue to develop, evaluate, and apply methods and models to support
air quality management programs. This work includes enhancing capabilities to conduct multipollutant
air quality assessments at local, regional, national, and global scales and further developing multimedia
and multi-stressor models to address complex environmental issues.
The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system11, a core component of the A-E
Research Program, combines meteorological, emissions, and air-chemistry transport and deposition
models that can be used to explore the estimated short- and long-term impacts of different policy and
regulatory options, including actions to attain the NAAQS and long-term impacts of the changing
environment. CMAQ has served as a powerful and trustworthy computational tool for EPA's programs
and regions, states, and tribes to evaluate different air pollution scenarios for two decades.
Developed and maintained by EPA scientists based on more than three decades of air pollution
research, the CMAQ modeling system continues to evolve scientifically to better represent how complex
mixtures of air pollutants are formed, transported, and eventually removed from the atmosphere. A-E
researchers lead efforts to conduct and apply fundamental physical science research that improves
CMAQ's representation of complex atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Also, as a result of CMAQ
being publicly available, a vibrant global user community has fostered collaborations with state, federal,
industrial, and academic institutions in the United States and around the world to assess and improve
the model's functionality.
Currently, CMAQ developers are broadening its scope to enhance its ability to consider atmospheric
phenomena from the global scale to the neighborhood scale. These efforts are important for
understanding the impacts of human activities and intervention strategies at all levels. Examples of
specific areas of on-going research include the following: improving the quantification of the
contributions of local and regional sources versus background contributions (such as trans-Pacific
transport of air pollution) to non-attainment areas, which will inform efficient and effective NAAQS
attainment strategies; improving representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA); enhancing our
understanding of the removal processes of atmospheric pollutants; improving knowledge of boundary
layer meteorology; and expanding our understanding of wildland fire impacts on local- to continental-
scale pollution.
Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen, sulfur, and other pollutants is an important exposure pathway to
consider as we improve our understanding of air pollutant impacts on ecosystems and water quality,
including the impacts of agricultural sources such as animal feeding operations (AFOs). A-E researchers
are improving the characterization of emissions from animal and crop agricultural operations including
improving our understanding of ammonia (NH3), PM, and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions
11 Learn more about CMAQ: The Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System at
https://www.epa.gov/cmaq.
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form AFOs related to manure application as well as NH3 and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) soil emissions from
fertilizer applications. These researchers are also working collaboratively with EPA regional and
program office partners and colleagues in the USDAto evaluate best management practices (BMPs) for
mitigation. Furthermore, through the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) Total
Deposition (TDEP) Science Committee, A-E researchers and colleagues advance the science of measuring
and modeling atmospheric wet, dry, and total deposition of nitrogen, sulfur, and mercury. The CMAQ
model is used to predict the exposure of plants, animals, soil, and water to air pollutants. For example,
atmospheric deposition is the second largest source of nitrogen to the Chesapeake Bay watershed.
Researchers used CMAQ to model nitrogen deposition and the results were used by the Chesapeake Bay
Program (CBP) to understand the reduction of atmospheric nitrogen loading over the past few
decades.12
EPA regions, as well as state and local agencies and tribes, often use models in the permitting review
process to estimate air pollutant concentrations at specified ground-level receptors surrounding
particular sources. A-E researchers will continue to work closely with OAR to develop and refine air
dispersion models to assess local-scale impacts of a variety of sources. For example, ORD collaborates
with OAR on the AERMOD modeling system13 which informs State Implementation Plan (SIP) revisions
and analyses required for the New Source Review (NSR) and Prevention of Significant Deterioration
(PSD) permitting programs. AERMOD also informs risk and technology reviews for sources of hazardous
air pollutants (HAPs) required under section 112(d)(6) of the CAA. A-E scientists conduct meteorological
wind tunnel studies to develop data sets and improve algorithms that enhance AERMOD's fine-scale
modeling simulation of building downwash, accounting for the influence that buildings and other
structures have on the flow and dispersion of air pollutant plumes.
EPA program and regional office partners, as well as states, local agencies, and tribes, have also
expressed a strong interest in better understanding air pollutant exposures in near-road environments.
The R-LINE model14 is currently under development by ORD to improve our understanding of temporal
and spatial variability of mobile source-related pollutants near major roadways. In addition, A-E
researchers are exploring opportunities to improve characterization using measurements and modeling
of complex roadway configurations, including the effects of noise and vegetative roadside barriers,
elevated roadways and bridges, and depressed roadways.
Source and ambient measurements provide empirical observations of complex phenomena and basic
ground-truthing to evaluate models. A-E researchers will continue to explore opportunities to use a
combination of ground-based, satellite, and aircraft/ship-based measurements to assess and improve
the accuracy of modeling systems and enhance our understanding of factors that influence the
distribution and fate of air pollutants.
12 CBP is a unique regional partnership focused on restoration and protection of this important estuary. CBP
partners include federal and state agencies, local governments, non-profit-organizations, and academic
institutions. Learn more at httpsi//www.chesapeakebay.net/discover.
13 Information on preferred and recommended air quality dispersion models including the AERMOD modeling
system is available at https://www.epa.gov/scram/air-quality-djspersion-modeling-preferred-and-recommended-
models.
14 The R-Line model is a research grade dispersion model that is currently being developed by ORD, and will allow
partners and stakeholders to evaluate air quality impacts in the near-road environment
(https://www.epa.gov/scram/air-quality-dispersion-modeling-preferred-and-recommended-models).
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Complex nonattainment areas provide unique challenges for air quality managers. The A-E Research
Program will continue to support efforts that improve the characterization of criteria pollutants in such
areas (e.g., ground-level ozone photochemical formation in near-shore environments). More broadly,
the program will also conduct research to enhance assessments of long-range transport of air pollutants,
particularly related to wildland fire plumes, and to advance methods that estimate background
contributions to PM and ozone.
EPA partners and stakeholders are often asked to evaluate multimedia exposures and are interested in
improved assessment methods to better understand the multitude of linkages across air, water, and
land boundaries to estimate potential public health and environmental impacts that would not
otherwise be understood using single-media models. Beyond using CMAQ and other focused air quality
tools to understand synergies and tradeoffs associated with various mitigation and pollution prevention
strategies, A-E researchers are developing a multimedia and multi-stressor modeling system to inform
actions that protect human health and welfare. This work includes connecting and improving a variety
of models to characterize the cumulative effects of pollutants across media. The work also includes
advancing air-surface exchange characterization in regional air quality models and the existing "one-
environment" modeling paradigm to address air quality impacts from changes in drivers, such as land
use and climate changes.
Building on the successes of the modeling systems discussed above, A-E researchers will develop and
evaluate a new paradigm for air quality modeling using an updated architecture to increase
computational efficiency and applicability as discussed in Research Topic 3 below.
Program, regional, state, and/or tribal needs
EPA partners and state, local, and tribal air quality managers need reliable information to inform
decisions on effective and efficient ways for improving air quality. Collectively, the results of the
research in this area will provide robust and comprehensive datasets and modeling tools that can be
applied across different spatial scales to: (1) characterize the role of background air pollution on NAAQS
attainment and implementation; (2) support the development of major energy and transportation
sector rules; (3) inform permitting decisions; (4) assess risks posed by criteria and hazardous air
pollutants (HAPs); and (5) develop local and regional-scale air quality and related climate data products.
Research Area 2: Approaches for Characterizing Source Emissions, Air Quality, Exposure, and
Mitigation Strategies
Developing, evaluating, and applying methods that improve characterization of source emissions, air
quality, and exposures will continue to be essential components of the A-E Research Program. This work
supports critical Agency programs, including applications for implementation and compliance with
relevant air pollution standards. Work within this research area will include laboratory and
collaborative field studies.
Federal Reference Methods (FRMs) and Federal Equivalent Methods (FEMs) are used to inform NAAQS
attainment/nonattainment decisions and are used for a wide range of analyses. Designating FRMs and
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FEMs is a core element of A-E's ambient air measurements program.15 Accuracy, durability, ease of use,
and cost-drivers are major factors.
In addition, A-E researchers will continue to collaborate with OAR to update and, where possible,
develop improved methods to measure hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) in ambient air. This work will
include considering updates to methods for toxic organic pollutants in ambient air.
To better inform decision makers, A-E researchers will continue to develop, evaluate, and apply models
and methods that improve spatial and temporal characterization of human and environmental
exposures for individual and mixtures of air pollutants. Research and data collection efforts will be
directed at improving our understanding of exposure-related factors that influence the magnitude and
duration of air pollutant exposures and at expanding the knowledge base of factors that contribute to
regional differences.
Beyond considering impacts of ambient air quality, the health impacts of indoor air pollutants are also of
interest. A-E researchers are developing an indoor air chemistry model that will provide guidance on
how to reduce exposures, improve our understanding of how ambient air pollutants infiltrate indoors,
and provide solutions for reducing air pollutant exposures within buildings. Additionally, residential
wood combustion used to provide energy for cooking, heat, and/or light impacts both indoor and
outdoor air quality, human health, and the environment. Characterizing emissions from woodstoves
and cookstoves continues to be a research priority expressed by partners. A-E research under the 2016-
19 StRAP made considerable progress in understanding health effects associated with exposure to
cookstove emissions and, as a result, this aspect of cookstove research is anticipated to be less of a
focus under this StRAP. Overall, the research will look to evaluate best practices and alternative
technologies for cleaner energy systems that reduce emissions and reduce public health and
environmental impacts.
Program, regional, state, and/or tribal needs
Regarding source emissions, EPA partners, state and local agencies, and tribes are interested in
advanced methods to measure source or near-source emissions, especially for high-priority sectors and
broad source categories (e.g., industrial operations, oil and gas facilities, refineries, mobile sources
including on- and off-road vehicles, wildland fires, agricultural sources, residential wood combustion)
and pollutants (e.g., condensable PM, 1,3-butadiene, acrolein, ethylene oxide, chloroprene). Improved
source emissions data are critical for reducing uncertainties in national emissions inventories and
informing the development, implementation, and enforcement of regulations. A-E researchers will
continue to advance air measurement technologies to better characterize source emissions. For
example, the A-E Research Program is furthering development of fenceline and mobile technologies to
improve characterization of previously undetected leaks from industrial and oil and gas facilities.
EPA partners, state and local agencies, and tribes are also interested in better data to inform effective
mitigation strategies. A-E researchers will continue to assess innovative control technologies to support
implementation of the most efficient management strategies that prevent and reduce air pollutant
emissions.
15 A list of designated FRMs and FEMs and documents supporting EPA's program to approve these methods is
available at: httpsi//www.epa.gov/amtic/air-monitoring-methods-criteria-pollutants.
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Collectively, the efforts in this research area will strengthen emissions inventories, advance model
development, and inform NAAQS reviews and development of standardized implementation plans for
use by state, tribal, and local air agencies. Source, ambient, and personal measurement technologies
are evolving rapidly. These advances are shaping a new paradigm for monitoring, as discussed in
Research Topic 3 below.
Research Area 3: Public Health and Environmental Responses to Air Pollution
This research area emphasizes science to assess single and multi-pollutant exposures and resulting
human and ecological effects to inform policy and public health practices. This research area continues
efforts initiated under the 2016-2019 ACE StRAP and reflects the evolution of research on air pollution, a
growing emphasis on implementation-related research, and enhancing the translation of the science to
better inform decision makers and the public about measures that may be taken to reduce the impacts
of air pollution on public health and welfare.
A core component of this research area is focused on improving our understanding of human and
ecosystem exposure and effects. This work informs future NAAQS reviews and advances assessments of
multi-pollutant exposures.16 The A-E Research Program works closely with the HHRA research program
in carrying out research needed for the NAAQS reviews.17 The results of A-E research will contribute
directly to the Integrated Science Assessments (ISAs)18 developed in the HHRA program to inform the
NAAQS reviews conducted by EPA's OAR.
A-E researchers continue to evaluate the health and ecological impacts of exposures to individual
pollutants within complex, multi-pollutant mixtures. This improves our understanding of how impacts
can be modified by co-exposures to other pollutants or by non-pollutant stressors (e.g., extreme
temperatures, demographics, social stressors). Furthermore, the identification of factors that put
people or ecosystems at risk from exposure to air pollution (e.g., life-stage, pre-existing disease,
genetics/epigenetics, social, cultural, behavioral, and other factors that confer vulnerability) must be
considered to fully assess impacts and inform air quality and public health management decisions. A
subset of these factors may be identified as key modifiable factors and may be important to consider in
policy decisions or as effective targets for behavioral and intervention strategies. In addition, A-E
researchers are improving the understanding of potential confounding and exposure measurement
error in air pollution epidemiological studies to clarify the effects of various pollutants within a mixture
of air pollutants. A-E researchers will continue to develop integrated approaches, incorporating
evidence from epidemiological, human clinical, and toxicological studies, to improve our understanding
of the biological mechanisms that impact susceptibility and key exposure factors. Researchers will use
this understanding to devise solutions that can address the problem of air quality-related health burden.
16 Multipollutant exposures may include simple and complex mixtures of particles, criteria pollutant gases, and
selected HAPs.
17 The CAA establishes two types of NAAQS, primary (health-based) and secondary (welfare-based) standards. The
statute requires review every five years of the science upon which the NAAQS are based and the standards
themselves. The NAAQS review process identifies key uncertainties and knowledge gaps that will help to guide A-E
priorities on human and ecological effects research to inform future NAAQS reviews.
18 ISAs are reports that represent a concise evaluation and synthesis of the most policy-relevant science to inform
the reviews of the NAAQS. Learn more at: httpsi//www.epa.gov/isa.
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As illustrated in Figure 2, emissions of criteria air pollutants have declined significantly over recent
decades as a result of implementation of the CAA by EPA, state and local agencies, and tribes. To inform
future NAAQS reviews, the A-E Research Program will improve our understanding of whether adverse
effects continue to be observed at concentrations below current standards, what the shape of the
concentration-response and exposure-response functions are at these lower concentrations, and how
uncertainties in health impacts may vary with pollutant concentration.
An additional area of active research is enhancing our understanding of exposure durations of concern
and the possible cumulative effects of multiple short-term, intermittent exposures and the relationship
of these exposures to longer-term exposures and risks. A-E research efforts will focus on expanding our
understanding of health effects associated with short-term peak exposures, such as those related to
wildfires, traffic-related sources, or other episodic events, as well as improving our understanding of
health effects associated with seasonal-length exposures, such as those related to wintertime wood-
burning emissions.
To inform reviews of the secondary NAAQS, A-E researchers are expanding measurements and modeling
for atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur to reduce uncertainty in the relationship between air quality,
deposition, and ecosystem services. The science conducted under the A-E Research Program will
expand our understanding of the linkages between atmospheric pollutants and ecological endpoints by
developing deposition budgets of nutrients and acidity for critical loads assessments.19 This research
has and will continue to directly inform reviews of the NAAQS and the risk and exposure assessment
activities performed by OAR as they consider options for the secondary NAAQS. This A-E research will
be coordinated with complementary research being conducted by the SSWR research program.
The changing environment has modified weather patterns, which in turn have influenced the
concentrations and spatial patterns of ambient air pollutants. A-E researchers will continue to improve
our understanding of the relationships between climate change, air quality, and human and ecological
impacts. This work will include, but not be limited to, advancing the understanding of: (1) temperature
changes on ozone and PM concentrations; (2) changes in pollen and allergic disease patterns; and (3)
the impacts of wildland fires and precipitation changes.
The work in this research area will include the translation of results to inform public health and well-
being practices. Studies will examine the interaction between behavior and social and economic factors
to more thoroughly understand how these factors may influence health and well-being outcomes.
Translating the science for use in public health communication and community empowerment is an area
that will involve collaborations between EPA and other federal agencies, such as the Centers for Disease
Control (CDC) and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), as well as state and local
agencies and tribes. This broadened focus will address ways to lower exposure or mitigate the biological
responses at individual, community, or ecosystem levels, and, ultimately, to evaluate whether such
interventions have benefits as measured by indicators of health, well-being, or economics.
19 A critical loads analysis is an assessment used to provide a quantitative estimate of whether acid deposition
levels resulting from S02 and NOx emissions are sufficient to protect aquatic biological resources.
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Program, regional, state, and/or tribal needs
Scientific information produced by A-E researchers in this area will inform improved strategies by which
governmental agencies, communities, and individuals can take actions to increase public awareness of
air pollution-related exposures and risks and support public health decisions to reduce adverse public
health and environment effects.
Topic 2: Extreme Events and Emerging Risks (E3R)
Actions to ensure the nation meets the environmental goals mandated by Congress often require near-
term decisions that have long-term consequences. Air quality management strategies, such as those
that require installation of large-scale air pollution control systems or adoption of emission reduction
technologies in vehicles, can take years, if not decades, to implement and achieve the anticipated
benefits. As an example, changes in atmospheric conditions are altering the frequency and magnitude
of extreme precipitation events; understanding these changes is crucial to the long-term effectiveness of
water treatment systems and waste management sites, which are designed to last for 50 or more years.
The effectiveness of these decisions over the long-term therefore requires an awareness of how the
future may unfold and how those changes will affect atmospheric conditions, including air quality and
weather patterns. The Extreme Events and Emerging Risks research topic is designed to inform
decisions about the potential changes over the long-term, which will allow EPA and its stakeholders to
prepare for future conditions and enable the long-term effectiveness of near-term decisions. Work
conducted under E3R is related to achieving all four of the A-E Research Program objectives discussed
above.
It is clear from recent experience that future conditions are not likely to mirror those observed in the
past. Environmental conditions are changing, as we have seen with increases in drought, extreme
precipitation events (as experienced in Houston in 2017 during Hurricane Harvey), and more and higher
high-temperature events. These are outside the range experienced in the past, whether in frequency,
magnitude, or both, and such conditions are increasingly likely to become the norm. The United States'
dynamic economy and past successes in reducing emissions mean that future air pollutant types and
sources of concern will change as technologies are developed and deployed.
Changes in atmospheric emissions and concentrations affect air quality, water quality (through
deposition and changes in precipitation patterns), flood and fire frequency and magnitude, and coastal
and forest ecosystems. These changes can affect air quality management effectiveness, vulnerabilities
of water treatment and waste management infrastructure, and, ultimately, public health and
ecosystems. The focus of the A-E Research Program on these issues is to improve and expand our
understanding of the potential long-term connections between changes in atmospheric emissions and
composition on these and other outcomes of importance to environmental protection, as required
under the CAA.
Recognizing that future conditions will change, we do not know with precision when, where, and how
they will change. As we look further into the future, the inherent uncertainties about conditions will
increase. The A-E Research Program is developing and expanding approaches that can enhance insights
into what future conditions might be, based on trends in technological development, advances in
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understanding how the Earth's climate is changing, and methods for supporting decision making in the
face of uncertainty and surprises.
The A-E Research Program will build upon its past successes in developing information needed by EPA
partners and stakeholders, including scenarios (and associated data) of changes in energy production
and use, land use, population, and other environmental stressors. The products of this work are also of
value to researchers in other ORD programs, other federal agencies, the academic community, industry,
and local, state, regional, and tribal organizations. The A-E Research Program's experience with
developing tools and approaches to inform decisions will continue, in collaboration with EPA partners
and community users of these tools.
Research Area 4: Public health and ecosystem exposures and responses to emerging air
pollutants and sources
To maintain and improve air quality, EPA's Office of Air and Radiation (OAR) needs to keep abreast of
emerging pollutants and sources. This information can evolve as new technologies come into the market
and as we increase our understanding about previously overlooked natural and industrial processes that
emit known pollutants. For example, the potential for exposure-related effects of per- and
polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) can only be effectively evaluated if we have a solid understanding of
their sources and emission levels.
Program, regional, state, and/or tribal needs
OAR and multiple EPA regional offices have expressed growing concerns about the potential for
atmospheric exposures to PFAS and the need to understand the sources, fate, and effects of airborne
PFAS. In response, A-E researchers will develop methods to measure atmospheric concentrations,
potential chemical transformations and transport, and health and environmental impacts of exposure to
PFAS in the atmosphere. A-E researchers will coordinate efforts with those of other ORD research
programs to develop a cross-media understanding of this emerging pollutant group and their potential
impacts on health and the environment, with a focus on vulnerable populations. This research is part of
a larger PFAS research effort involving the CSS, SSWR, and SHC Research Programs that collectively is
aimed at developing effective risk assessment, management, and mitigation strategies.
To reduce uncertainty in national emission inventories, OAR needs data on emissions of methane from
U.S. reservoirs. A-E researchers will apply the tools and methods developed for measuring open (non-
stack) sources of organic compounds to increase our understanding of previously under-reported
biogenic methane emissions from reservoirs and how water level changes, nutrient content, and
ambient conditions can affect the timing and rate of emissions.
Research Area 5: Methods to evaluate environmental benefits and consequences of a
changing energy system
OAR, states, and tribes need detailed projections of potential future air pollutant emissions to analyze
NAAQS attainment strategies. To address this need, A-E researchers will develop scenarios of energy-
system evolution to gain insights into the potential effects of fundamental changes, such as vehicle
electrification, increased use of natural gas, and growth of renewable energy. STAR researchers are also
analyzing future energy, transportation, and agricultural scenarios to evaluate impacts on emissions, air
quality, and the economy. These insights will inform decisions on issues such as air quality management
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strategies that will account for multiple possible future situations, thereby increasing the long-term
effectiveness of those plans. By using commonly-used energy system modeling frameworks, A-E's
researchers will more effectively collaborate with others and develop results that have broad
applicability. Researchers will work with experts at the Department of Energy (DOE), in the energy
industry, and in the academic community to develop tools, models, and scenarios that can inform
environmental program decision makers at local, state, regional, and national scales, in both
government and the private sector.
As required by the Energy Independence and Security Act, A-E researchers will develop the triennial
Report to Congress on the environmental impacts of biofuel production and use.20 The biofuels report
is a specific example of research to understand the life-cycle environmental impacts of different mixes
of energy technologies. The A-E Research Program has the lead for conducting such evaluations, which
include impacts to air quality, water quality and quantity, ecosystem health, biodiversity, invasive
species, and soil quality. A-E researchers work with experts from other ORD research programs, EPA
partner offices, and local, state, and tribal stakeholders to develop life-cycle evaluations of energy
system scenarios.
Program, regional, state, and/or tribal needs
To develop effective air quality management strategies, state and local agencies, tribes, and EPA need
information about the key uncertainties and data gaps that affect future air quality. One of the more
important of these issues is understanding how the nation produces and uses energy. Although the
production and use of energy provides the nation and the world with enormous benefits, it also has
considerable environmental consequences. The "energy system" - the mix of technologies that produce
energy and convert it to desired end uses (e.g., transportation, heat, light, manufacturing) - is in the
midst of fundamental change. That change has significant implications for air pollutant emissions, water
consumption, and other environmental endpoints.
Research Area 6: Methods to enable resilience to future environmental stressors
Included in EPA's FY19 Performance Measures21 is a commitment to provide integrated data, models,
information, and other decision-support tools for state, tribal, and community partner resiliency, for
incorporation into their planning processes. The A-E Research Program will build on recent successes,
such as the Adaptation Design Tool (developed in partnership with the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration) and the multi-sector approach to evaluating urban resilience to future
environmental stressors. Working with researchers from across ORD's research programs and with
experts in other federal and state agencies, A-E researchers will continue developing approaches to
understand potential future land use change, how heat and other extremes can affect public health and
ecosystems, and the potential for flooding of water treatment infrastructure and Superfund and waste
management sites.
A core component of this work continues to include working with the potential users to co-develop
methods and tools. Workshops, webinars, and other means of engagement with community
20 Biofuels and the Environment: The Second Triennial Report to Congress was completed in June 2018
(https://cfpub.epa,gov/si/si public record Report,cfm?dirEntryld=341491).
21 https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-03/documents/fyl9-ci-13-performance-measures.pdf
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representatives have generated ideas about how information can be most effectively developed and
communicated and have increased the understanding of the science at the community level.
Program, regional, state, and/or tribal needs
Underlying these tools are foundational efforts to develop scenarios and associated data that can be
used by partners, stakeholders, and other ORD research programs. For example, the land use and
population scenarios developed by A-E researchers include data on how population and land use
distributions may change. These data can be used to evaluate potential changes in magnitude of urban
heat island effects or changes in water runoff associated with new streets and other impervious
surfaces, among other impacts. In addition, understanding how potential future changes in patterns of
average and extreme air temperature and precipitation are crucial factors needed to estimate the
potential for future environmental impacts. These estimates are needed to evaluate the long-term
effectiveness of air quality management strategies by taking into account estimates of future
susceptibility to wildfires and their associated environmental consequences, air quality exceedances,
and changes in health impacts of air pollutant exposures during extreme temperature events.
Topic 3: Next-Generation Methods to Improve Public Health and the Environment fNGM)
The A-E Research Program conducts and adapts research that advances science and technology to help
our partners and stakeholders solve complex environmental problems. Scientific advances can help
lower the cost and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of providing environmental protection.
Next-generation methods to improve public health and the environment are directly related to
achieving all four of the A-E Research Program objectives discussed in the previous section. Innovative
methods and approaches are under development specifically to meet objective 3 to advance
measurement and modeling. This work will also address the remaining A-E objectives to improve
assessment of impacts (objective 1), develop approaches to prevent and reduce emissions (objective 2),
and inform decisions at national, state, tribal, and local levels (objective 4). The development and
evaluation of advanced next-generation fenceline monitoring methods combined with facility-specific,
real-time, and lower-cost sensors networks will provide innovative support to further these objectives.
The current state of environmental monitoring for regulatory compliance with the NAAQS is quite
expensive and labor and time intensive to produce quality data. New, lower-cost sensor technologies
on the market show promise for widespread collection of real-time data, but their performance is still in
question. EPA partners and stakeholders have continuously expressed the need for ORD support in
understanding the performance of lower-cost sensor technologies and how to assess the quality of the
data they produce. A-E research is vital to understanding how this growing technology revolution can
be guided to produce reliable data so the information and technologies are of sufficient quality for the
uses and decisions of interest.
Similarly, in the era of "big data," the issue of data management and interpretation is at the forefront,
including efforts to help users visualize and make sense of air quality information through maps,
interactive apps, or other approaches. Advancing data fusion methods to combine data from monitors,
sensors, satellites, and model output will improve estimates of air pollution exposure. Opportunities for
public/private partnerships will be important to the A-E Research Program, as they combine private
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sector expertise in data science with EPA experience in air quality measurement and translation and
communication of scientific information.
While technological advances and national air pollution policies have reduced emissions from motor
vehicles, electricity generation units, and industrial sources, many regions remain in non-compliance
with the NAAQS for particle matter and ozone. These non-attainment regions present modeling
challenges due to the combination of emission sources, complex meteorological conditions, wildland
fires, and long-range transport of air pollution from rising emissions in developing economies of the
world. States responsible for producing new NAAQS attainment demonstrations and updated regional
haze plans need robust tools that enable consistent examination of the air pollution phenomena on
local-to-global scales. A-E research to develop, evaluate, and apply this advanced AQ modeling system
will also advance the science of air quality modeling and understanding of critical processes across
global to local scales.
In the area of human health, changes in medical care through technological advances, as well as changes
in health data management, have created opportunities for environmental health research not possible
previously. Also, the move toward individualized medicine is a future where research on air sensor
technologies merges with public health research. The A-E Research Program will capitalize on these
changes to develop innovative methods for understanding the impacts of local air quality on health and
for evaluating approaches to reduce public health risks associated with exposures to air pollutants.
Innovative research approaches create opportunities for making progress in improving air quality and
public health. EPA is exploring the use of open-source challenges, citizen science, social science, and
other non-traditional avenues to investigate and address environmental science problems. For example,
the A-E Research Program used an open-source challenge to promote the development of wildland fire
smoke monitoring systems. The initial challenge awarded funds for successful prototypes and was
followed by a Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) solicitation to further advance this technology.
The A-E Research Program, together with its partners, will continue to capitalize on challenges and the
SBIR program, whenever possible, to advance next-generation methods.
Research Area 7: Emerging approaches to improve air quality and exposure characterization
Looking to the near future, the A-E Research Program anticipates that portable sensors, integrated
sensor networks, and other advanced next-generations systems will more routinely provide near real-
time, continuous data to evaluate emissions and to detect and measure pollutants in ambient air.
Smaller, lower-cost air sensor monitoring devices may be broadly deployed to capture a much more
spatially-detailed picture of relative ambient air quality in a neighborhood, city, or larger area. Similarly,
innovations in source monitoring can significantly reduce monitoring costs, provide more timely
information, and provide opportunities for industry to address leaks and emissions before they become
serious problems. With appropriate data management and analysis, this new world of monitoring data
will provide a more complete understanding of air quality, leading to more timely identification and
understanding of air pollution problems. Advances in sensor technologies will support assessments of
air pollution emissions, with the opportunity to improve overall implementation of CAA regulations.
Many new air sensor technologies are entering the market, but the quality and reliability of the data
they produce is unknown. A-E researchers will continue to develop and test new technologies for
measuring air pollutants (PM, ozone, VOCs, others) in a variety of ambient and indoor environments and
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from a range of industrial and other sources. Communities across the country are working with STAR
researchers to better understand how air sensor technologies perform in real world conditions and how
the general public interacts with the devices and interprets the data. In addition, multiple projects
underway with state and regional partners and the private sector are demonstrating technology
performance in ambient and source monitoring and are providing opportunities to evaluate and manage
large quantities of data. The A-E Research Program will develop analytical and data management tools
to enable local, state, regional, and national managers to evaluate the effectiveness of air pollution
reduction strategies using sensor data on an ongoing basis.
In partnership with EPA programs, regions, states, tribes, and local governments, the A-E Research
Program will consult with academic experts, federal colleagues, and technology manufacturers to
consider performance standards and testing protocols for non-regulatory applications of ambient air
sensor devices. The information developed will help air quality managers and the public understand
which sensors are appropriate for their monitoring purpose and will encourage innovation in the
marketplace.
Advances in computer science, new sources of air pollution measurement data, and the means to
interface with other models and data are opening the way for a new generation of air quality models.
Modeling challenges are broad and range from incorporating the influence of long-range transport of air
pollutants and climatic trends, to understanding fine-scale variations in pollution due to local
meteorology, terrain, and emission sources. A next generation of models will draw on multiple sources
of data - from sensors, more sophisticated air monitoring instruments, and satellites - enabling greater
accuracy of model predictions. Also, advanced modeling approaches will be able to assess air quality
over multiple geographic scales - from local to global.
A-E researchers are developing a next-generation air quality model that integrates multi-scale and multi-
pollutant capabilities in an updated architecture to increase computational efficiency and applicability.
Expanded capabilities include addressing ecosystem impacts and linking to new global meteorology
models. Research and data collection efforts will also be directed at (1) improving our understanding of
exposure-related factors that influence the magnitude and duration of air pollutant exposures, (2)
developing methods to advance the data fusion techniques to integrate ground-level measurements,
personal measurement data, satellite data, and (3) modeling results to reduce uncertainties in exposure
assessments.
Program, regional, state, and/or tribal needs
State, local, and tribal agencies are responsible for air quality monitoring in their jurisdictions, and they
are pursuing the use of lower-cost air sensor monitoring technologies. Air pollution monitoring is costly
and technically challenging, leaving many gaps in spatial and temporal coverage. Air agencies are
starting to use new, real-time advanced monitoring approaches and lower-cost devices to identify
pollution hotspots, to determine locations for siting regulatory monitors, for community awareness
about air quality, and for other purposes. However, air quality managers and other stakeholders are
frequently turning to EPA to address questions about the reliability of the technologies, the ability to
measure challenging pollutants such as speciated VOCs, the quality of the data produced, how to
manage and analyze the data, and how to interpret what the data mean for health. OAR places a very
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high priority on A-E research and support for understanding sensor technology performance for source
emissions and in ambient and indoor air.
States, tribes, and local governments also rely on EPA for air quality models they can use to understand
changes in air quality, predict future air quality, and evaluate strategies for air pollution management.
OAR underscored the need for an updated air quality modeling platform that could potentially lead to
faster assessments of air quality impacts across multiple scales and then be used to inform air quality
planning. EPA regions emphasized the need for next-generation models that represent transport from
the global to local scale. These modeling tools are essential to demonstrate compliance with the NAAQS
and to inform decision makers at the state and tribal levels if their policy choices will be effective, as
discussed in Research Topic 1 above.
Research Area 8 - Novel approaches to assess human health and ecosystem impacts and risks
Advances in measurement technology, coupled with state-of-the-art information systems, are enabling
the development of new methods to assess impacts and evaluate risks. For example, the move to
electronic health records affords epidemiologists in the STAR research centers and the A-E intramural
program the opportunity to examine how changes in air quality can affect populations, while protecting
the privacy of the patients. Examining trends in health conditions related to air quality provides
important information for state and local health departments across the country to more effectively
communicate risks to the public and reduce impacts to public health. This research also will inform
colleagues in the HHRA research program as they review the state-of-the-science on specific air
pollutants for decisions on NAAQS.
As a collaborative effort to promote human health, federal colleagues in the Department of Health and
Human Services lead the Million Hearts Initiative, which focuses on reducing the number of heart
attacks and strokes in the United States. Based on earlier health research from EPA and others around
the world, Million Hearts now advises those who have had a heart attack or stroke to avoid exposure to
PM2.5.22 Future research using air sensors and individual health monitors will help evaluate strategies to
reduce personal exposure and risk.
Next-generation methods for assessing health and ecosystem risks will help decision makers understand
the likely impacts of extreme events, such as the increase in frequency and intensity of wildland fires.
Current approaches are proving inadequate for addressing wildland fires in the 21st Century. EPA will
work with federal and other partners on innovative approaches to assess and mitigate the risks from
fires. Initial work is addressing air and water quality. For example, fires and subsequent soil erosion
affect water quality, including natural water treatment processes, infiltration and flow of groundwater
supplies, and overall ecosystem health. Researchers will integrate wildfire models with ecosystem
models to enable a comprehensive assessment of public health and ecosystem impacts. To improve
smoke forecasting and protect human health, A-E researchers will integrate ecosystem models (that
estimate the growth of plant biomass) with smoke models to predict the size and direction of smoke
plumes from wildland fires.
22 Learn more about the Million Hearts Initiative efforts to share information about air quality and cardiovascular
effects at httpsi//millionhearts,hhs,gov/tools-protocols/tools/particle-pollution,html.
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Program, regional, state, and/or tribal needs
State, local, tribal, and federal organizations face complex environmental challenges as the population
grows, new technologies emerge, land-use patterns change, and extreme weather events occur more
frequently. To make sound health and environmental policy decisions, decision makers need
assessments of the extent and likelihood of potential risks to human health and ecosystems. For
example, EPA regions identified several needs related to wildland fires, including: better understanding
of the health risks of wildland fire smoke exposure over short- and longer-term time periods;
understanding the long-range transport of air pollutants from fires and the impact on air quality; and the
development of forecasting to aid state air agencies in determining approvals for prescribed burns. A-E
will work closely with partners and stakeholders to design research that produces innovative
approaches to better understand risks and support decision-making.
Cutting Across All Research Topics: Wildland Fires
The three research topics and associated research areas described above are interconnected and rely on
multiple scientific disciplines working collaboratively to provide research results that address EPA
priorities and mandates. Many scientific issues cut across the entire research portfolio of the A-E
Research Program. One of these issues is wildland fires.
Wildland fires are a persistent and pervasive multimedia issue that is increasing in prominence within
the United States. Wildland fires affect air quality in and around the locations of fires, as well as more
broadly downwind. Emissions from conventional sources of air pollution have been reduced, yet our
changing environment has increased the likelihood and severity of wildfires and has changed the
optimal window for the prescribed burning season. A-E research will focus on improving our
understanding of wildland fire impacts on public and environmental health and will inform approaches
to reduce associated risks. While specific deliverables addressing wildland fires may be included in the
Research Areas summarized above, Research Area 9 discussed below is intended to integrate and
synthesize wildland fire-related work that draws on the research conducted under the three A-E Topics,
as well as related and collaborative research efforts being conducted in other ORD national research
programs, specifically SSWR, SHC, HSRP, and CSS.
Research Area 9: Wildland fires
Research over the next several years will provide improved understanding of wildland fire impacts on
public health and the environment and will inform approaches to reduce exposures and risks associated
with wildland fires. This integrated approach will help us better understand the growing importance of
wildland fires, identify vulnerable ecosystems and populations, and develop effective risk
communication and mitigation strategies.
The United States has a long history of managing wildland fires, with responsibility for managing and
responding to these fires spread across federal, state, and local government agencies, as well as tribes.
To enhance our understanding of public health and environmental impacts of wildfires and to inform
decision making at different levels, A-E research will:
Improve models and measurement methodologies to assess emissions and determine impacts on air
and water quality and ecosystems
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Determine what ecosystems and human populations and lifestages are susceptible and vulnerable
to wildland fires
Develop and evaluate approaches (e.g., best practices for prescribed fires) to mitigate risks to
human health and ecosystems
Develop and evaluate health-risk communication strategies to promote health-protective behaviors
Across the Federal government, a range of agencies are involved in fire science. Developing effective
tools to inform air and water quality management decisions to minimize fire impacts requires a
concerted, integrated effort within EPA and across the Federal government. A-E researchers will
continue to build collaborations with the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Department of the Interior (DOI),
NOAA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), CDC, and others to fill specific
science gaps. These efforts will also be coordinated with related state, local, and tribal activities.
Program, regional, state, and/or tribal needs
Major focus areas for A-E researchers will include: (1) advancing capabilities to assess human health and
ecological impacts of wildland fires; (2) improving tools and technologies to quantify and predict
wildland fire impacts; (3) better characterization of source emissions; (4) improved understanding of
wildland fire impacts on the indoor environment and human exposures; and (5) informing activities to
effectively minimize adverse public and environmental impacts and risks.
Anticipated Research Accomplishments and Projected Impacts
By its nature, the A-E Research Program requires a strategic plan that comprises a breadth of activities
across a wide array of science and program issues to meet current Agency priorities and stakeholders'
research needs, while also being flexible and responsive as new needs emerge. As science and
technology evolve rapidly, opportunities arise for new technical approaches to address environmental
problems and science questions, as well as whole new ways of approaching these problems. In addition,
there are major changes involving social media, access to information, and public attitudes toward
environment and health.
The A-E Research Program will have the greatest impact when its research and deliverables are
developed in collaboration with partners and stakeholders from inception to completion, embracing the
concept of solutions-driven research. ORD deliverables specifically designed to be useful in the hands of
partners and stakeholders are termed "outputs." Examples of proposed A-E outputs for FY2019 to 2022
are listed in Appendix 1. The A-E Research Program will engage the relevant partners and stakeholders,
as appropriate, throughout the research process to ensure that outputs and related products
adequately address partner and stakeholder needs. This includes working together to determine the
format of outputs and products that would be most useful for partners and stakeholders and the most
effective approaches for communicating A-E science.
In addition to advance-StRAP planning on multiyear cycles, ORD recognizes that EPA partners and
stakeholders must respond to emerging, unforeseen needs that can benefit from ORD research and
technical expertise. In these situations, ORD works with partners to balance the relative importance of
these emerging needs with other research activities that might need to be offset and to ensure
agreement in any changes in research direction within available resources.
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The A-E Research Program will continue to evolve to meet its mandated obligations supporting
regulations and policies while it looks to the future, embracing sustainability, innovation, community
engagement, and anticipating the air and energy issues ahead. In that spirit, the A-E Research Program
will review its three research topic areas each year. Examples of anticipated accomplishments for each
research topic are briefly described below.
Science for Air Quality Decisions fAQD)
EPA's requirement to periodically review and, if appropriate, revise the NAAQS demands a robust
scientific understanding of exposures to, and effects of, criteria air pollutants. A critical component of
the A-E Research Program is focused on addressing key uncertainties and data gaps identified in
previous NAAQS reviews to inform future reviews. This work will include: (1) expanding our
understanding of the role of individual pollutants within the mixture of air pollutants; (2) advancing the
identification of characteristics that put subgroups within the general human population and
ecosystems at increased risk of experiencing effects associated with air pollutant exposures and the
impacts of a changing environment; and (3) improving our understanding of possible health and welfare
impacts at lower ambient concentrations and/or related to repeated short-term, intermittent, peak
exposures.
Science that informs effective national, state, local, and tribal air pollution control strategies to support
implementation of the NAAQS and other regulatory drivers requires continued efforts to improve
ambient and source measurements, emissions inventories, and modeling tools. As noted in the EPA
Strategic Plan, "EPA's work to control emissions of air pollutants is critical to continued progress in
reducing public health risks and improving the quality of the environment." This work includes: (1)
developing or approving new FRMs and FEMs for criteria pollutants; (2) advancing and evaluating
control technologies; (3) standardizing test guidelines for assessing source emissions and profiling
emissions among a mixture of sources to inform emissions inventories and source apportionment
studies; and (4) advancing modeling tools to improve the characterization of air pollutant impacts on air
and water quality and community and individual exposures at relevant local, regional, and hemispheric
scales, and under changing climatic conditions.
In addition, the A-E Research Program includes a broader public health focus to deliver effective,
relevant, and timely science that provides insights into factors that may better explain and reduce
uncertainties in observed public and environmental health effects of air pollutants and may offer more
effective support for responses to extreme weather events. These efforts will include enhancing the
translation of the science to better inform decision makers, as well as the public, about measures that
can reduce the impacts of air pollution on public health and the environment.
Extreme Events and Emerging Risks (E3R)
EPA, state and local agencies, and tribes have growing concerns about PFAS and the potential for people
to be exposed to these compounds through emissions to, and transport through, the atmosphere. A-E
researchers will develop methods to measure emissions and ambient air concentrations of PFAS and will
expand computational models to simulate the physical transport, chemical transformation, and ultimate
exposure pathways of these compounds. The A-E Research Program will also investigate the potential
levels of exposure resulting from airborne PFAS and the health and environmental effects associated
with these exposures.
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The effectiveness of environmental protection actions at the national, state, and local scales often
depends upon assumptions of how the future will unfold. A-E researchers will develop scenarios of
important environmental stressors, including land use change, population change, and frequency and
magnitude of extreme weather events, that can be used to evaluate alternative strategies for air quality
management, impacts to human and ecosystem health, and other core environmental endpoints.
Building resiliency to changing environmental conditions and extreme weather events relies on analysis
methods and decision processes that incorporate substantial uncertainties into estimates of
vulnerability and risk. A-E researchers will work with planners and decision makers in communities and
states to develop and evaluate frameworks for identifying vulnerabilities to extreme events and
evaluating strategies for improving resilience. In collaboration with SSWR and SHC researchers, A-E
scientists will develop approaches for estimating risk and incorporating those estimates into the decision
process, even as those estimates may change as new information becomes available over the long term.
Changes in the nation's energy system have implications for air pollutant emissions and other
environmental impacts. Because of the substantial uncertainties about how such changes will unfold, A-
E researchers will develop scenarios of possible adoption of technologies and the associated changes in
air quality and other environmental stressors. A-E researchers will examine changes in the types of
energy used in the transportation sector and changes in how people and goods are moved. In
collaboration with experts from EPA's OAR-OTAQ, A-E researchers will develop and publish the third
triennial report to Congress on the environmental impacts of biofuel production and use.
Next-Generation Methods to Improve Public Health and the Environment fNGM)
Smaller, lower-cost air monitoring devices are on the market and can be useful to states, local agencies,
tribes, and the public, but the quality of the data generated is largely unknown. A-E researchers will
continue to evaluate these new technologies and will work with EPA partners and external stakeholders
to develop performance standards and testing protocols for these devices. Future use of devices with
known performance characteristics will assist states and local agencies, tribes, and the public in using
sensors appropriately for a variety of purposes, and it will help provide more a detailed understanding
of air pollution concentrations, sources of air quality problems, and implications of air quality
management strategies.
Solving air quality problems requires the use of models to understand air pollution phenomena such as
the long-range transport of pollutants and fine-scale changes in pollution in small geographic areas.
ORD's next generation of modeling and measurement fusion work will combine modeling with data
from sensors, traditional air monitoring instruments, and satellites, to better represent ambient air
pollution concentrations. This new air quality model will be more computationally efficient, able to
simulate behavior of multiple pollutants at multiple scales, and capable of linking with new global
meteorological models. These capabilities will benefit federal, state, and local air agencies as they more
effectively evaluate options for attaining the NAAQS.
Complex environmental problems call for the development of new methods to assess impacts and
evaluate risks. For example, the increase in frequency and intensity of wildland fires is resulting in more
widespread impacts to ground and surface water quality and overall ecosystem-health challenges. To
better understand the likelihood and extent of such impacts, A-E researchers will integrate wildland fire
models from the U.S. Forest Service with EPA's ecosystem models. Advances in modeling capabilities
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will inform more comprehensive assessments of health and ecosystem impacts, enabling environmental
managers to identify vulnerable areas and take appropriate management actions.
Conclusion
Clean air is vital to our country - to sustaining the health of people and the ecosystems on which we
depend. There are still over 100 million people in the United States who live in counties that do not
meet current air quality standards, which impairs their health and results in economic impacts due to
lost work, school days, and productivity. Although we have seen significant improvements in air quality
over the past several decades by reducing emissions from point and mobile sources nationwide, we
cannot assume that progress will continue. Air pollution issues persist at the local level requiring
innovative developments in tools and data. In addition, changing environmental conditions are likely to
make meeting air quality objectives more difficult.
EPA will respond to the challenge of improving air quality throughout the United States now and into
the future. The A-E Strategic Research Action Plan provides the framework for advancing science
priorities over the next four years to support EPA, state and local government, and tribes so they may
improve air quality. This plan was developed through extensive engagement with other EPA research
programs, with EPA partners in the program and regional offices, states, tribes, and other external
stakeholders. This integrative and inclusive approach will continue as we work to implement the
research envisioned in this plan. A key feature of an inclusive approach involves working together to
design research outputs that translate and effectively communicate science to solve complex
environmental public health problems.
This strategic plan is guided by over-arching Agency objectives to meet air quality standards and focuses
on assessing the impacts of air pollution, preventing and reducing emissions, advancing measurement
and modeling, and delivering state-of-the-art tools to inform decision making. The research guided by
this plan will provide information needed by government agencies, the private sector, and the public to
take actions to maintain and improve air quality for all, particularly in those areas that currently do not
meet air quality standards.
References
National Interagency Fire Center. (2016). Total Wildland Fires and Acres (1960-2015). Retrieved from
http://www.nifc.gov/firelnfo/firelnfo_stats_totalFires.html
U.S. EPA. (2014). Control of Air Pollution from Motor Vehicles: Tier 3 Motor Vehicle Emission and Fuel
Standards Final Rule - Regulatory Impact Analysis. EPA-420-R-14-005. Retrieved from
https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi/P100ISWM.PDF?Dockey=P100ISWM. PDF
U.S. EPA. (2016a). U.S. EPA National Emissions Inventory (NEI) 2014. Retrieved from
https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/2014-national-emissions-inventory-nei-data
U.S. EPA. (2016b). Wildfire Smoke: A Guide for Public Health Officials. Retrieved from
https://www3.epa.gov/airnow/wildfire_may2016-revised.pdf
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U.S. EPA. (2018a). FY2018-2022 EPA Strategic Plan. Washington, DC: U.S. EPA. Retrieved from
https://www.epa.gov/planandbudget/strategicplan
U.S. EPA. (2018c). Our Nation's Air 2018, https://gispub.epa.gov/air/trendsreport/2018.
U.S.EPA. (2017). Evaluating Urban Resilience to Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Approach (Final Report).
EPA/600/R-16/365F. Retrieved from
https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/global/recordisplay.cfm?deid=322482
U.S.EPA. (2018b). ORD Strategic Plan 2018-2022.
USGCRP. (2016). The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific
Assessment. Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program.
USGCRP. (2017). Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I.
Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program. doi:10.7930/J0J964J6
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Appendices
Appendix 1: Summary Table of Proposed Outputs for the Air and Energy Research Program (FY2019-2022)
The following table lists proposed, high-level, strategic Outputs (including proposed delivery timeframes) for the Air and Energy (A-E) National
Research Program, organized by Topic and Research Areas. This list is not comprehensive but rather illustrative of the breadth of the A-E
portfolio. It should be noted that the Outputs may change as new scientific findings emerge. Outputs are also contingent on budget
appropriations. Final Outputs, including expected delivery years and sequence, will be determined during the next phase of research
implementation planning. The A-E Research Program will continue to engage with EPA partners throughout the research implementation phase
as we identify the specific products that will be developed to achieve the research area objectives and Outputs identified in the StRAP.
Research Area
Program, Regional, State and/or Tribal Need
Output Title
Topic 1: Science for Air Quality Decisions
1. Approaches to
support air quality
management programs
for multiple pollutants
at multiple scales
Improved estimates of short- and long-term impacts of different
policy and regulatory options through updated air quality
models to inform actions to attain the NAAQS and to expand
understanding of the long-term impacts of the changing
environment; in particular, the inclusion of source
apportionment will enable estimates of individual state and/or
sector contributions
1. FY19-Release of CMAQv5.3 and
instrumented versions supporting
source apportionment
Enhanced ability to quantify background criteria pollutant
contributions, including those from long-range, international
transport, to non-attainment areas; to improve the
quantification of the contributions of local and regional sources
versus background contributions (such as from international
transport) to inform periodic NAAQS reviews required by the
CAA and strategies to attain the NAAQS and Regional Haze goals
2. FY20- Development of advanced
approaches to estimate background
contributions of particulate
matter and ozone
Improved capabilities to evaluate complex nonattainment areas
to better understand air quality at a very local scale to inform
NAAQS attainment strategies (for example, ground-level ozone
photochemical formation in near-shore environments such as
near Lake Michigan and the Long Island Sound)
3. FY21-Enhanced monitoring and
modeling approaches to inform local
decisions in nonattainment areas, in
partnership with states
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Research Area
Program, Regional, State and/or Tribal Need
Output Title
2. Approaches for
characterizing source
emissions, air quality,
exposure, and
mitigation strategies
Enhanced methods to better characterize drivers of exposures
and risks from indoor sources of air pollutants including
cookstoves to inform best practices and alternative technologies
for cleaner energy systems that reduce emissions and related
public health and environmental impacts
4. FY20-Summary report of
advancements to characterize
emissions, exposures, and related
health impacts associated with
cookstove use
Methods to Identify and characterize previously undetected
leaks from sources; for example, improving detection and
identification of VOCs that contribute to ozone formation in
nonattainment areas or that are identified as hazardous air
pollutants (HAPs) and regulated under section 112 of the CAA
including the Petroleum Refinery Maximum Achievable Control
Technology (MACT) standard
5. FY21- Progress update on new
approaches (aerial and ground-
mobile) used to measure source
emissions, including fenceline
measurement technologies
Reliable ambient measurements of criteria air pollutants to
inform NAAQS attainment/nonattainment decisions and to guide
NAAQS implementation actions; developing/updating methods
to measure HAPs in ambient air to inform residual risk reviews
required under Section 112 of the CAA
6. FY22-Summary of updated ambient
air measurement technologies
including:
a. Federal Reference Method and
Federal Equivalent Methods -
technology designations and
methods development approved
for FY19-FY22
b. Methods Development for HAPs
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Research Area
Program, Regional, State and/or Tribal Need
ffltBOEB 1
Improved characterization of the relationships between ambient
concentrations, deposition, and ecosystem impacts to inform
NAAQS reviews for secondary standards such as N02, S02, and
PM and to improve understanding of air pollution impacts on
water quality
7. FY19- Synthesis of progress to
improve characterization of
deposition budgets for North America
and identification of remaining
critical knowledge gaps related to
nitrogen deposition and assessments
of critical loads
3. Public health and
environmental
responses to air
pollution
Increased understanding of the factors which may influence
susceptibility and vulnerability to air pollutants; expanded
analytical approaches to improve exposure estimates for healthy
and at-risk populations and lifestages to inform reviews of the
primary NAAQS which provide public health protection,
including protecting the health of sensitive populations such as
children, older adults, and individuals with pre-existing heart and
lung disease and to inform regulatory and policy actions to
reduce risks to these populations
8. FY20-Summary of advancements in
understanding health impacts of air
pollutants in healthy and at-risk
populations and lifestages and
identification of remaining critical
knowledge gaps
Enhanced knowledge of the potential health impacts of multi-
day pollution events (such as wildfires) in relationship to single
day events and longer-term exposures to improve
characterization of public health impacts, to inform effective and
consistent public health messages, and inform actions to reduce
risks
9. FY20- Synthesis of enhanced
understanding of
peak/intermittent/short-
term/cumulative exposures and
relationship to longer term
exposures; development of health
messages, in collaboration with
partners, to communicate risks
Expanded understanding of the health impacts of exposures to
lower concentrations of criteria air pollutants including shapes of
concentration-response and exposure-response functions and
how uncertainties in health impacts may vary with concentration
to inform future reviews of the NAAQS
10. FY21-Grantee report summarizing
results of multiple epidemiology
studies evaluating health impacts of
lower ambient concentrations of
criteria pollutants
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Research Area
Program, Regional, State and/or Tribal Need
Output Title
Increased capabilities to assess multiple chemical and non-
chemical interactions, including long-term temperature changes;
advanced understanding of public health and welfare benefits
associated with various air quality management options to
inform NAAQS reviews and air quality management options to
attain the NAAQS and to expand understanding of the long-term
impacts of the changing environment
11. FY22-Summary of advancements in
interactions of environmental
changes on PM, ozone, wildfires and
associated human health impacts
Topic 2: Extreme Events and Emerging Issues
4. Public health and
ecosystem exposures
and responses to
emerging air pollutants
and sources
Ability to measure "new" chemicals (for example, PFAS) emitted
from sources and in ambient air to better understand the
sources, fate, and public health and environmental effects of air
pollutants previously poorly characterized or that result from
new technologies or industrial processes
12. FY20- Development of laboratory
methods for priority PFAS
compounds emitted to the
atmosphere
National-scale survey of methane emissions from reservoirs in
the United States to reduce uncertainty in inventory estimates
by improving the characterization of previously under-reported
biogenic methane emissions and how water level changes,
nutrient content, and ambient conditions may affect the timing
and rate of emissions; this research will address a key gap in
monitoring data for the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) reporting requirements
13. FY21-Summary report on
advancements to characterize
methane emissions from reservoirs
Understanding pollutant transfer cycle for "new" chemicals of
emerging concern (for example, PFAS) to enhance
characterization of atmospheric concentrations, potential
chemical transformations and transport, and related exposures
and health and environmental impacts
14. FY22- State-of-the Science: synthesis
of research on airborne PFAS
emissions, fate, and impacts and
identification of remaining critical
knowledge gaps
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Research Area
Program, Regional, State and/or Tribal Need
Output Title
5. Methods to evaluate
environmental benefits
and consequences of
changing energy
systems
Improved capabilities to project future emission estimates to
inform development of NAAQS attainment strategy analyses
15. FY21- Report on air quality under
future energy scenarios
Required assessment under the Energy Independence and
Security Act for environmental impacts of biofuels
16. FY21-Third Biofuels Report to
Congress (RTC)
Expanded understanding of future system-wide scenarios of
energy use and air pollution emission trends associated with
changing transportation technologies to gain insights into
potential effects of fundamental change, such as vehicle
electrification, increased use of natural gas, and grow of
renewable energy sources to analyze NAAQS attainment
strategy options
17. FY22- Progress update on
environmental consequences of
emerging transportation
technologies and practices
6. Methods to enable
resilience to future
environmental
stressors
Development of tools and information to advance understanding
of the potential impacts of emerging and future environmental
risks to human health, air quality, water quality, ecosystems, and
built infrastructure to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of air
quality management strategies, including NAAQS attainment
strategies
18. FY21- Updated and expanded
scenario data for population, land
use, and extreme events as input to
risk evaluation and management
Development and application of risk-based models to inform
decisions that result in improved environmental protection and
natural resource management while addressing climate
adaptation goals
19. FY22-State of the Science: analysis
of environmental impacts due to
effects of extreme weather
conditions and events on forested
watersheds
Improved understanding of environmental responses to extreme
events and identification and evaluation of mitigation options
20. FY22- Methods for decision analysis
to improve environmental resilience
to extreme events
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Research Area
Program, Regional, State and/or Tribal Need
Output Title
Topic 3: Next-Generation Methods to Improve Public Health and Environment
7. Emerging
approaches to improve
air quality and
exposure
characterization
Improved understanding of the spatial and temporal
characterization of human and environmental exposures
21. FY21-Advancement of methods and
evaluation of uncertainty in
combining reference level monitor
data, sensor data, satellite data,
and/or model output to improve air
pollution exposure estimation
Enhanced understanding of how to use measurement data from
air sensors to support partners in managing and communicating
the data
22. FY21-Improved capability to
manage, visualize, and process
sensor data
Improved understanding of air sensor performance and quality
of technologies on the market in support of partners' monitoring
programs
23. FY22- Evaluation of performance of
sensor technologies, including
development of performance
targets and test methods
Expanded air quality modeling capabilities to better characterize
finer scales (for example, neighborhoods); enhanced ability to
model at different scales include regional and global scales for
use in future air quality management decisions
24. FY22- Release and demonstrate
Advanced Air Quality Modeling
Platform supporting multiscale air
quality assessment over a global
domain
8. Novel approaches to
assess human health
and ecosystem impacts
and risks
Improved approaches and systems to better assess health and
ecosystem impacts and risks associated with environmental
stressors to inform the periodic review of the science underlying
the NAAQS
25. FY21- Development of new health
research approaches that take
advantage of newly available
electronic data systems and
advanced cellular models
Increased understanding of wildland fire impacts on water
bodies and ecosystems, including: erosion, use of fire
suppressants, surface and ground water, and drinking water
26. FY22- Integration of ecosystem and
forest service models to assess
public health and ecosystem
impacts of fires
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Research Area
Program, Regional, State and/or Tribal Need
Output Title
Cross-Topic Research
Enhanced understanding of wildland fire impacts on public
health and the environment and improved approaches to reduce
associated risks; includes improving characterization of
exceptional events to inform NAAQS compliance decisions
27. FY20- Interim progress update on
wildland fire research summarizing
multidisciplinary research being
conducted across the three A-E
research topics summarized above
9. Wildland fires
28. FY21-Translational pilot project on
wildland fires
29. FY22- Capstone wildfire research
synthesizing multidisciplinary
research conducted across the three
A-E research topics summarized
above
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Appendix 2: State Needs Reflected within ORD/A-E Research Planning
The table below lists the state research needs identified in the 2016 Environmental Council of States
(ECOS) survey and in discussions between state representatives and ORD in the spring of 2018 related to
air quality. These needs are aligned to specific A-E ORD Research Areas (RAs) and, where noted, other
ORD national research program StRAPs.
Source
State Need
Research Area
2016 Survey
Achieve compliance with the newly
lowered ozone standard, ozone
modeling and monitoring issues
Approaches to support air quality management
programs at multiple scales
Approaches for source emissions, air quality, and
exposure characterization
Interstate and cross-border
transport
Emissions from grassland burning,
wildfires and forest fires
(atmospheric and AQ models)
Wildland fires, HSRP is assessing the potential for
radiological contaminants to be spread as a result of
forest fires
Advanced monitoring and sensors
Innovative approaches to improve characterization of
air quality and exposure
Media Meeting
High altitude ozone research (WY)
Approaches to support air quality management
programs at multiple scales
Prescribed burns/wildfires and
emission factor work with KS and
EPA Region 7 (NE)
Wildland fires
Tying improvements in air quality
to public health (TN)
Public health and environmental responses to air
pollution
Look at how air deposition of toxics
(PCBs and others) contributes to
water loadings (WA)
N/A
PM2.5 indicators- wood smoke and
public health
Public health and environmental responses to air
pollution
Expanding the national mesoscale
meteorological and photochemical
modeling domains to include the
state of Hawaii could provide
significant positive impact
(reference to Hawaii letter) with
respect to (HI):
1. Accuracy of the National Air
Toxics Assessment
2. Efficiency of state efforts
regarding Regional Haze,
Exceptional Events
3. Understanding of health risks of
extreme events associated with
volcanic sulfate from the Kilauea
volcano on the Island of Hawaii
1. Programmatic lead, OAR-OAQPS
2. Programmatic lead, OAR-OAQPS
3. Innovative approaches to improve characterization
of air quality and exposure (including STAR
community monitoring grant focused on Hawaii
volcanic smog, see
https://cfpub.eoa.gov/ncer abstracts/index.cfm/fuseactio
n/displav.abstractDetail/abstract/10741/report/0)
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Source
State Need
Research Area
4. Expanding EPA research efforts
to better include the state of
Hawaii could help avoid similar
delays in submission deadlines for
future federal rules
4. Innovative approaches to improve characterization
of air quality and exposure
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Appendix 3: Cross-cutting Research Issues
The following table lists research issues and briefly summarizes activities coordinated across the ORD national research programs.
Research
National Research Program
Issue
A-E
CSS
HHRA
HSRP
SHC
SSWR
Site recovery
Secondary NAAQS
Regulating
Health
Ecosystem
services
Near road & urban
air quality
Wildland fires
Extreme heat
Ecotoxicity
Ecological risk
assessment
services
(mitigation of
flooding, other
extreme events)
promotion
Community
revitalization
Ecosystem
services
Secondary NAAQS
Regulatory
Sensors and
water
infrastructure
Locations
Exposure data &
evaluated
models
Innovative
solutions
Water treatment
systems
Drinking water
Lead
models
modeling,
quality sampling
Risk Assessment
including
contaminant fate
and transport
Risk Assessment
Sensors & Water
Infrastructure
Nutrients
Atmospheric
deposition of
airborne nitrogen
and phosphorus to
ecosystems
Toxicity testing
Sensors and Water
lnfrastructure(w/SHC)
Nitrogen & Co-
pollutants
Toxicity Testing
(w/CSS)
Treatment of
contaminated
Tech Support
Analytical standards
water from
Fate and
Analytical methods
Air and emissions
Adverse outcome
Risk
characterization
emergency
transport at
Remediation
PFAS
sampling and control
pathways
response
contaminated
Waste-water
potential
Rapid toxicity
activities,
sites and landfills
treatment
testing
including use of
PFAS containing
firefighting foam
Estimating
human exposure
Toxicity Testing
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Research
National Research Program
Issue
A-E
CSS
HHRA
HSRP
SHC
SSWR
Resilience
Sector-based
approaches to
resilience
Assessment of
trends and
development of
scenario to support
adaptation and
resilience for
extreme events
Emergency
preparedness
and response for
all hazards
Indicators of
long term
resilience
Preparation and
response to
natural disasters
Coastal Resilience
Stormwater
Wildland
fires
Models and
measurement
methodologies
Vulnerable
ecosystems and
human populations
Approaches to
mitigate risks
Fate and
transport of
contaminants
during wildland
fires, e.g., fire in
asbestos
contaminated
area
Models and
measurement
methodologies
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