J U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Research Triangle Park, No. Ca. rV \/A Assemble/Acquire Data jr/j siJ ReVA takes monitoring data (e.g. EMAP and other) and develops spatially explicit models that estimate condition, vulnerability, or exposure for every point on the map. This allows us to focus on specific sites for risk management activities, targeting limited resources to maximize efficiency and effectiveness. ReVi is... www.epa.gov/reva Synthesizing monitoring data and model results to target risk management activities Developing a flexible integration framework that can be used in any region, with any data, at any scale Estimating condition and exposure for every point on the map Ranking relative vulnerabilities, current and future Enabling trade-off analyses through "what if scenarios Informing diagnosis of causality Linking environmental health with fiscal and human health Working directly with clients t| m Point of Contact: Elizabeth R.Smith,Ph.D., ReVA Director 919/541-0620 On Resource Sensitivity I 0.014-0.021 I 0.021 - 0.025 I 0.025 - 0.029 1 0.029 - 0.031 0.031 -0.036 I 0.036 - 0.044 I 0.044 - 0.052 Forest Health Monitoring Plot Grid percent unemployment by county percent unemployment by watershed number of reptiles and amphibians by EMAP hex On Stressor Distributions 1 0 I 0.0001 - 0.001 I 0.0011 -0.01 0.0101-0.05 I 0.0501 - 0.1 I 0.1001 -0.4055 I 0.0001 -4.4179 I 4.4179-6.7824 6.7824 -15.4604 15.4604-104.8637 104.8637-1452.6213 I 1452.6213 - 83004.4292 estimated forest defoliation by watershed sulfate wet deposition by modeled grid I 13.305 -17.344 I 17.344-19.93 19.93-22.123 22.123 - 25.18 I 25.18-29.756 number of reptiles and amphibians by watershed sulfate wet deposition by watershed j-xs/ \ I 19.148-119.104 I 119.104 I 232.203 ¦ 321.665 use of agricultural chemicals by county use of agricultural chemicals by watershed Develop Future Scenarios Land Use Change "What we need is for some agency or some organization... to synthesize all the various information that's available to us. We don't lack information, we just lack consolidation of the information." Projected population growth along with associated changes in land use and pollutant loadings will be used to forecast environmental impacts apt to result from alternative policy decisions. ReVA is working directly with clients to develop a suite of future scenarios that depict the environmental implications of different management alternatives. Annual Population Growth Rate Mid-Atlantic Study Area 1990-1995 Air pollution spreads across the landscape, affecting regional air quality. Emerging Tec Integrate Information and Communicate Current Vulnerabilities Vulnerability Indices Radar Plots TTSS ntegration Methods Spatial overlap Quintiles Multivariate methods Shift in state space Weighted average Matrix methods Visualization methods Decision theoretic methods Combination of multiple methods I Rank 1 (Cluster 4) 1 Rank 2 (Cluster 9) I Rank 2 (Cluster 8) Rank 3 (Cluster 7) Rank 3 (Cluster 2) I Rank 4 (Cluster 1) I Rank 5 (Cluster 3) I Rank 6 (Cluster 5) I Rank 7 (Cluster 6) Not included & Jl Integrate Information and Communicate Future Vulnerabilities Input into Decisions Affecting ... ¦ Nonpoint-source pollution in water ¦ Increased sediment/nutrient loadings ¦ Acid mine drainage ¦ Allocation of TMDLs ¦ Drinking water quality and supply ¦ Increased risk of flooding ¦ Urban sprawl/quality of life ¦ Fiscal health ¦ Economic opportunities ¦ Future risks to human health ¦ Conservation of native biodiversity ¦ Pests and pathogens in forests ¦ Fragmentation of forests ¦ Forest health and productivity ¦ Cumulative impacts of multiple stressors ¦ Restoration priorities Future Scenarios of Nitrogen Loadings Based on Landscape Alternative Scenarios of Environmental Vulnerability Current conditions ~ 0.989-1.812 ' : 1.812-2.738 j 2.738-4.52 4.52-7.356 I J 7.356 - 16.904j[||^ ~ 0.74-1.812 4 ~ 1.812-2.738 1 2.738 - 4.52 1 4.52 - 7.356 J I" J 7.356-13 Low Vulnerability ffl® Medium Vulnerability High Vulnerability 10% decrease in riparian forest | 1.304-1.812 "HI 1.812-2.738 ¦ 2.738-4.52 H 4.52-7.356 H 7.356-23 10% increase in riparian forest Expected Products Decision-support tools that improve prioritization of environmental issues, risk reduction strategies, and development of future policies using ¦ GIS, remote sensing, and predictive modeling to forecast changes in ecosystem resiliency ¦ New indicators to measure cumulative effects and ecosystem vulnerability ¦ Communication methods that illustrate the social and economic trade-offs associated with alternative decisions Identification of information and research gaps that limit further improvements to environmental decision-making For more information contact... Betsy Smith (NERL), smith.betsy@epa.gov Bruce Jones (NERL), jones.bruce@epa.gov Jim Wickham (NERL), wickham.james@epa.gov Laura Jackson (NHEERL), jackson.laura@epa.gov Jeff Frithsen (NCEA), frithsen.jeff@epa.gov ' Joe Williams (NRMRL), williams.joe@epa.gov Protect Hamm Health ------- |