Predicting/Modeling Improvements in Public Health and Ecosystems Goods and Services Associated with Major Urban Redevelopment and Infrastructure Projects at Sun Valley in Denver

Predicting/Modeling Improvements in Public Health and Ecosystems Goods and Services Associated with
Major Urban Redevelopment and Infrastructure Projects at Sun Valley in Denver.

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regional Sustainability and Environmental Sciences (RESES) Research
Program

The RESES program, led by EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD), matches Agency scientific and
technical expertise with high-priority, short-term research needs in each of the Agency's ten Regions across the
nation. The RESES program has helped Regions respond to state, local and Tribal interests in addressing priority
science issues such as waste materials management. Approaches include development of methods, use of science-
based tools and multi-stakeholder engagement. RESES has also provided resources for developing innovative
regional approaches that can then be used on a national scale. It has supported citizen science projects to address
community concerns such as air pollution.

By design, RESES emphasizes collaboration and partnerships to deliver targeted science that can inform Agency and
local decision-making. Projects are funded through an internal (EPA-only) annual solicitation for proposals. This
year's program encouraged proposals focused on three topic areas:

• Contaminated sites

• Beneficial reuse of waste materials

• Integration of ecosystem services with public health outcomes

In 2018, EPA Region 8 in conjunction with the Office of Research and Development submitted a proposal for a
RESES project and was selected. The project is described below.

Predicting/Modeling Improvements in Public Health and Ecosystems Goods and Services (EGS) Associated
with Major Urban Redevelopment and Infrastructure Projects at Sun Valley in Denver.

EPA Regional project lead: Stacey Eriksen

EPA/ORD project lead: Michael Nye

Other collaborators: Steve Vesper, Rebecca de Jesus Crespo; Rich Fulford (ORD); Tim Rehder (R8); Lynne Picard
(Sun Valley/ DHA); Sun Valley Eco District, Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment, Jill
Bednarek of the Colorado Healthy Housing Coalition, US Forest Service, Dana Coelho of the Denver Metro Nature
Alliance, Keith Woods of the CO State Forest Service, Sara Davis of the Denver Office of the Forester and Kim
Bartels (R8 Children's Health Coordinator).

Project Summary:

EPA Region 8 has low-income neighborhoods with little green space or recreational areas, often located near major
highways with the resulting incidence of many diseases being disproportionately high. Every city and every EPA
Region is looking for solutions to the problems in these neighborhoods. The Sun Valley neighborhood in Denver
Colorado (Region 8) is one such neighborhood. Denver's Sun Valley neighborhood is the poorest neighborhood in the
Denver region and Sun Valley is one of EPA's 51 Making a Visible Difference (MVD) Communities. The Sun
Valley community is about to become the Sun Valley "Eco District". It is often assumed that green design,or
planning for sustainability and associated environmental improvements will create additional or synergistic public
health benefits for community residents. Much work has been performed on specific aspects of this relationship (i.e.
between increased green space and mental health), but there have been few real-world studies that rigorously
document a whole suite of EGS metrics prior to revitalization and then apply sophisticated models to predict how,
where and why conditions will improve after revitalization based on detailed plans. In short, green design and

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revitalization are most often pursued as an abstract public good, but the Region can't predict how much improvement
can be expected based on a given revitalization plan, and which EGS are impacted/ expected to improve. This study
will help fill that capability gap. It will also help validate modelling tools available for this and other regions to
estimate the provision of ecosystem services and their potential linkages to health. (How good are the predictions?
Should we use these tools for decision making, or do they need to be revised?)

Summary of Other Research and Findings:

Studies of the role of EGS on human health have primarily been observational research of intermediate processes and
few address the full pathways from ecosystem to EGS to human health, limiting our ability to assess causality (de
Jesus Crespo and Fulford, 2017). For example, de Jesus Crespo and Fulford (2017) found that the connection
between EGS and asthma was inconsistent and in need of more research. Other studies have found consistent
evidence linking green spaces to improvements to physical activity and mental health,but raise important issues about
potential confounding socio-economic factors not effectively accounted for in most studies (Lee and Maheswaran,
2011). The Sun Valley project presents an unprecedented opportunity to study the same community, before and model
what can occur after a restoration project, to assess the causal linkages between green space restoration and human
health outcomes while controlling for potentially confounding socio-economic, environmental and infrastructure
factors.

Objective:

The Sun Valley Choice Neighborhood Transformation Plan includes residents, community members, businesses,
local, state federal government agencies and stakeholders that are invested and driven towards the revitalization of the
Sun Valley Neighborhood. HUD has committed $30 million to a phased redevelopment project that will involve:
razing the 1955-era existing housing stock and replacing it with modern, energy and water-efficient low-income and
mixed-income development; re-orient streets into a grid pattern to reduce traffic pollution; dramatically increasing
available greenspace and natural viewscapes for residents. Millions have also been invested in Sun Valley and nearby
S. Platte River restoration to improve safety, reduce flooding and provide recreational access. These and additional
improvements in green infrastructure are expected to provide a variety of new EGS that will improve health and well-
being for the community. This study will help Region 8, Denver Housing Authority, and other EPA Regions and
communities, document and better understand those expectations by quantifying and modeling the impact of local
environmental restoration on human health. It will also help document which EGS improvements are likely to have
the biggest demonstrable impact on public health, and where that relationship is less clear.

Approach:

Effective project assessment requires a suite of metrics linking EGS and community health, as well as current EGS
and community health "baselines" from which to measure change. This baseline will be quantified before the
transformation, using tools and databases currently available as well-as new data collection. The Sun Valley
Transformation Plan (created by Mithun and City Craft Ventures) and associated architectural and planning
documents will be used to construct a scenario using baseline values and existing detailed revitalization plans to
estimate future improvement in EGS and community health. The scenario will be constructed on the assumption of
100% implementation of the Sun Valley Transformation Plan. We will estimate the future EGS-health impacts of
Sun Valley restoration based on the metrics, baseline values, available literature, and change scenarios.

Baselining EGS, Public Health, and Environmental Quality

• A number of ORD Tools like EnviroAtlas, H20, i-Tree, etc. and tools like the South Platte River Urban
Waters Partnership Natural Capital Resource Assessment and Prioritization Tool (hereafter, abbreviated
"Natural Capital Tool") will be used to assess and quantify the current conditions and a scenario of proposed
changes to EGS as reflected in the Transformation Plan. The Natural Capital Tool (NCT) was created with
significant stakeholder involvement and represents a represents a complex and sophisticated ecosystem
services valuation tool. In addition, high resolution land cover maps will document the distribution of green

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space and identify and quantify current vegetation. The present building plot will be used to quantify current
building height for estimating "viewscapes" and sunlight penetration using EPA's "H20 Tool" (Russell et al.,
2013). Analysis of thermal infrared bands and other remote sensing techniques will be used to estimate
current land surface temperature, as described in Mendez-Lazaro et al. (2017). Water quality improvements
are unlikely to be measurable from a redevelopment at this scale. Existing and ongoing water quality data is
available at http://wvsw.expIoremetrodenverwaterauality.org/ and the Colorado Data Sharing Network
http://www.coloradowaterdata.org/ The Natural Capital Tool already incorporates water quality and riparian
habitat as part of the ESV https://pg-cloud.com/NaturalCapital/ . Water quality is an EGS that we can account
for,

• Current air pollution will be assessed in the Sun Valley community via AQM-65 sensors acquired from
Aeroqual (CRADA with ORD) measuring PM 2.5; Ozone and Sulphur Dioxide. A sensor will be deployed
on the roof of the new Colorado Department of Transportation building, which is located at the North end of
the neighborhood. An additional sensor is already located at the Elementary School at Sun Valley via project
with City and County of Denver that can be used as a co-reference.

• Public Health conditions, both mental and physical, will be assessed in this baseline analysis, and projected
improvements represented in the scenario. Congestion, crime, lack of green space and recreational
opportunities can cause mental health issues like depression and suicide. (See Figures 1-3 in the Appendix for
current conditions in Sun Valley community.) Green space usage and physical activity levels will be
estimated using a variety of tools, including neighborhood survey data from Sun Valley's EcoDistrict
certification process (https://ecodistricts.org/get-started/the-ecodistricts-protocol/), interpolated estimates from
the 500 cities project (https://www.cdc.gov/500cities/), and modelling frameworks using existing national
surveys (Mansfield et al. 2016). Existing health databases such as the Center for Medicare and Medicaid
Services database can be used to track incidence of health issues through time, such as before and after the
planned restoration activities.

• Because the housing in the community is being razed and rebuilt, it is also important to quantify co-variates in
the indoor environment that might impact our estimates of EGS. (An overall assessment of health conditions
in the Sun Valley neighborhood was published in 2014.) Much of the indoor assessments are being performed
by the DHA and the University of Colorado at Denver who are redesigning the community. However, our
team will assess the current indoor air contamination including PM measurement of PM2.5 and PM10 with
TSI Dustrack II and mold contamination using the ORD Environmental Relative Moldiness Index (ERMI).
As the present apartments in Sun Valley become vacant, the Regional investigator team will work with the
Denver Housing Authority (DHA) to gain access. A MOU is in place with DHA. Three TSI Dustrack II
monitors, already located in R8, will be used to monitor indoor air and also to collect a dust sample for mold
analysis. A representative sample of apartments (up to 10%) in the Sun Valley community will be assessed
and sampled. Existing plans for the new housing, including insulation ratings and build standards will be used
as the basis for projecting air quality improvements in the scenario.

Modelling and Scenarios for EGS + Public Health improvements

Changes in these services can be best assessed in the scenario construction from a comparison to baseline conditions
in Sun Valley (measured before improvements), proposed improvements in the Transformation Plan, as well as
comparisons to other neighborhoods in the Denver area with similar potential access to these ecosystem services.

A. Develop links between target EGS and human health (HH) outcomes

1) HWBI-ES links in HWBI (see Kyle B. below)

2) Planned HIA to provide HH-ES links

3) Weight of published evidence approach for some links (e.g., activity/viewscapes and depression)

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B. Establish model baseline for assessment of improvements related to ES restoration.

1) Analysis of Medicare data (Sun Valley and reference site) - allows for an empirical comparison of health
outcomes based on a BACI design.

2) H20 tool analyzes changes in landcover impacts on access to greenspace/viewscapes. For example, see
Tampa Fish Hawk neighborhood report at end of this document - direct scenario analysis based on projected
changes in Sun Valley for greenspace, trees, and reductions in impervious cover.

3) i-Tree model for examination of shading services from restoration - Shade analysis to support H20
assessment.

4) ENVISION analysis of ES-HWB links with a focus on HH - A suite of sub-models linked to provide
scenario analysis of ES production linked to HWBI metrics.

5) Use Natural Capital tool as a baseline for ecosystem services values and a restored area in the maps as
what the new values will be after restoration.

Environmental Quality and Public Health Issues Being Addressed:

Major changes are proposed in the Sun Valley Transformation Plan to improve and increase EGS in the community.
Specifically, there will be a dramatic increase in available greenspace, a redesigned street grid to improve near road
emissions, and a contaminated site from an old energy plant will be remediated and turned into a park.

Additional research or programs addressing this community priority (e.g., RARE, brownfields, Superfund) and
describe the integration of this project.

• EPA funded a restoration design for Weir Gulch and the South Platte River which included a fishing jetty and
all of the construction has been completed. EPA also completed a green infrastructure study of Sun Valley
evaluating four different storm-water options with varying levels of green infrastructure and doing a capital
cost and 20-year maintenance cost evaluation. In addition, the Army Corps of Engineers is conducting an
ecosystem restoration study of this stretch of the South Platte River and Weir Gulch further up in the
watershed.

• PI Kyle Buck- EPA-NHERL-GED: SHC Task 2.64.5: (Refining and Modifying Human Well-being Measures.
Testing and refinement of well-being and resilience at the community level) is also working at Sun Valley
using census and other datasets collected by project partners as a case study for both remote scaling validation
and improvements in well-being linked to neighborhood transformation.

• Other communities in Denver have done Health Impact Assessments as part of their re-development projects.
An HIA, coordinated with University of Colorado Denver, and Colorado Health Foundation, is planned as
part of the Neighborhood Transformation

References

1. de Jesus Crespo R, Fulford R. (2018). Eco-Health linkages: assessing the role of ecosystem goods and services on
human health using causal criteria analysis. Int. J. Public Health. 63:81-92.

2. Lee, A. C., & Maheswaran, R. (2011). The health benefits of urban green spaces: a review of the evidence. Journal
of Public Health. 33; 212-222

3. Russell, M., A. Teague, F. Alvarez, D. Dantin, M. Osland, J. Harvey, J. Nestlerode, J. Rogers, L. Jackson, D.

Pilant, F. Genthner, M. Lewis, A. Spivak, M. Harwell, and A. Neale. (2013). Neighborhood scale quantification of
ecosystem goods and services. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Gulf
Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, Florida. EPA/600/R-13/295.

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4.	Mansfield, T. J., & Gibson, J. M. (2016). Estimating active transportation behaviors to support health impact
assessment in the United States. Frontiers in Public Health, 4, 63.

5.	Mendez-Lazaro, P., Muller-Karger, F. E., Otis, D., McCarthy, M. J., & Rodriguez, E. (2017). A heat vulnerability
index to improve urban public health management in San Juan, Puerto Rico. International Journal of Biometeorology,
1-14.

Appendix
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Model-based estimates for no leisure-time physical activity among adults aged >=18 years - 2015

Wheat Ridge

" Denver, CO (0820000-08031000800)

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Englewood

Esri. HERE. NPSI County and City of Denver, County of Arapahoe. Esri. h3

Aurora

Crude Prevalence %: 36.9
Crude 95% CI: 34.0 - 39.2
2010 Census Population: 1,448

3

Model-based estimates for coronary heart disease among adults aged >=18 years - 2015

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Images From the Natural Capital Tool Demonstrating Low Natural Asset and Ecosystem Services Values in
the Sun Valley Area:

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Fish Hawk Example:

From: Russell, M., A. Teague, F. Alvarez, D. Dantin, M. Osland, J. Harvey, J. Nestlerode, J. Rogers, L. Jackson, D.
Pilant, F. Genthner, M. Lewis, A. Spivak, M. Harwell, and A. Neale. 2013. Neighborhood scale quantification of
ecosystem goods and services. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Gulf
Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, Florida. EPA/600/R-13/295. November 2013

Table 1. Summary of neighborhood scale metrics used to estimate ecosystem goods and services and valuation

Metric

Ecosystem Serv ice
(FEGS)

Benefit

.nation Method

Tree canopy coverage

Atmospheric pollution

removal

(Clean air)

Increased

respiratory

health

Avoided medical costs

Tree canopy
coverage (South side
of residential
property)

Shading (Shade)

Decreased energy
use

Avoided energy costs

Rate of carbon
sequestration

Atmospheric regulation
(Stabilized climate)

More predictable
climatic patterns

Avoided social costs

Rate of denitrification

Nutrient removal (Clean
water)

Water of sufficient
quality is
available to
meet designated
uses

Replacement costs

Walking distance to
open green spaces,
trails, and
parks

(Accessible green spaces)

Increased
opportunity to
recreate

Hedonic pricing

Number of viewable
mature trees

(Viewable, aesthetically
pleasing trees)

Increased mental
health and well-
being

Hedonic pricing

Number of viewable

water

features

(Viewable water)

Increased mental
health and well-
being



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