Updates in January 2020 Reference Case 1. Introduction This document describes the updates in the January 2020 Reference Case that are incremental to the EPA's Power Sector Modeling Platform v6 using IPM November 2018 Reference Case. These updates are detailed below. Table 1-1 lists updates included in January 2020 Reference Case incremental to EPA's Power Sector Modeling Platform v6 using IPM November 2018 Reference Case (for which full-fledged documentation is available) and also differentiates the updates that were already included in May 2019 Reference Case. Updates that are highlighted in gray were new in the January 2020 Reference Case. Table 1-1 Updates in the January 2020 Reference Case incremental to November 2018 Reference Case Description For More Information Power System Operation Updated SO2 Floor Rates and Removal Efficiencies Section 3.9.1 Updated Renewable Portfolio Standards and Solar Carve-Outs Table 3-19 Updated BART NOx limits Table 3-28 Added Offshore Wind Mandates Table 3-29 Added Clean Energy Standards Table 3-30 Added 45Q - Credit for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Table 3-31 Added Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) Rule Table 3-32 Generating Resources Updated Data Sources for NEEDS v6 for EPA Platform v6 Table 4-1 Updated Summary Population (through 2018) of Existing Units in NEEDS v6 Table 4-3 Updated Aggregation Profile of Model Plants as Provided at Set up of EPA Platform v6 Table 4-7 Updated Summary of Planned-Committed Units in NEEDS v6 for EPA Platform v6 Table 4-11 Updated Planned-Committed Units by Model Region in NEEDS v6 for EPA Platform v6 Table 4-12 Updated Short-Term Capital Cost Adders for New Power Plants in EPA Platform v6 (2016$) Table 4-14 Updated Performance and Unit Cost Assumptions for Potential (New) Renewable and Non- Conventional Technology Capacity in EPA Platform v6 Table 4-16 Updated Onshore Average Capacity Factor by Wind TRG Table 4-20 Updated Onshore Reserve Margin Contribution by Wind TRG Table 4-21 Updated Offshore Shallow Reserve Margin Contribution by Wind TRG Table 4-23 Updated Offshore Mid Depth Reserve Margin Contribution by Wind TRG Table 4-25 Updated Offshore Deep Reserve Margin Contribution by Wind TRG Table 4-27 Updated Solar Photovoltaic Reserve Margin Contribution by Resource Class Table 4-32 Updated Performance and Unit Cost Assumptions for Potential (New) Battery Storage Table 4-35 Updated Energy Storage Mandates in EPA Platform v6 Table 4-36 Updated Onshore Wind Generation Profiles Table 4-39 Updated Solar Thermal Capacity Factor by Resource Class and Season Table 4-47 1 ------- Description For More Information Added New Jersey ZEC Bill Section 4.5.1 Section 3.9.1 SO2 Floor Rates and Removal Efficiencies The SO2 removal efficiencies for existing coal units with FGD's were updated based on those reported in 2017 EIA Form 860. The FGD removal efficiencies in South Carolina are based on efficiencies realized during the 2015-2018 period. In addition, the SO2 rate floor values for existing coal units with FGD's are calculated as follows. • Dry FGD - minimum (0.08, minimum reported ETS SO2 rate for the 2014-2018 period) • Wet FGD - minimum (0.06, minimum reported ETS SO2 rate for the 2014-2018 period) Section 3.9.3 BART NOx Limits Table 3-28 lists the BART NOx and SO2 limits applied to specific EGUs in the January 2020 Reference Case. In the January 2020 Reference Case, the BART NOx limits for Hunter 1-2 and Huntington 1-2 were updated from 0.07 Ibs/MMBtu to 0.26 Ibs/MMBtu and a new BART NOx limit of 0.34 Ibs/MMBtu was added to Hunter 3. 2 ------- Table 3-28 BART Regulations included in EPA Platform v6 BART Affected Plants UniquelD BART Status/ CSAPR/ Shutdown/ Coal-to- NOx BART Limit SO2 BART Limit NOx Compliance SO2 Compliance State Gas Date Date 0.12 Ib/MMBtu Comanche 470_B_1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.20 Ib/MMBtu 0.10 Ib/MMBtu combined on annual average 0.12 Ib/MMBtu 2018 2018 Colorado Comanche 470_B_2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.20 Ib/MMBtu 0.10 Ib/MMBtu combined on annual average 2018 2018 Colorado Craig 6021_B_C1 BART SO2 0.11 Ib/MMBtu 2021 2012 Colorado Craig 6021_B_C2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.08 Ib/MMBtu 0.11 Ib/MMBtu 2018 2012 Colorado Four Corners 2442_B_4 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.098 Ib/MMBtu Actual emissions 2018 2018 New Mexico Four Corners 2442_B_5 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.098 Ib/MMBtu Actual emissions 2018 2018 New Mexico Gerald Gentleman 6077_B_1 BART NOx 0.23 Ib/MMBtu CSAPR 2018 2018 Nebraska Gerald Gentleman 6077_B_2 BART NOx 0.23 Ib/MMBtu CSAPR 2018 2018 Nebraska Hayden 525_B_H1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.08 Ib/MMBtu 0.13 Ib/MMBtu 2018 2018 Colorado Hayden 525_B_H2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.07 Ib/MMBtu 0.13 Ib/MMBtu 2018 2018 Colorado Martin Drake 492_B_6 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.32 Ib/MMBtu 0.13 Ib/MMBtu 2018 2018 Colorado Martin Drake 492_B_7 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.32 Ib/MMBtu 0.13 Ib/MMBtu 2018 2018 Colorado Nebraska City 6096_B_1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.23 Ib/MMBtu 1.2 Ib/MMBtu 2018 2018 Nebraska San Juan 2451_B_1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.23 Ib/MMBtu Actual emissions 2018 2018 New Mexico San Juan 2451_B_4 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.23 Ib/MMBtu Actual emissions 2018 2018 New Mexico Apache Station 160_B_2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.085 Ib/MMBtu 0.00064 Ib/MMBtu 12/5/2017 12/5/2017 Arizona Apache Station 160_B_3 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.23 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 12/5/2017 12/5/2017 Arizona Cherokee 469_B_4 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.12 Ib/MMBtu 7.81 tpy (12 month rolling) 2018 2018 Colorado Cholla 113_B_3 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.22 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 12/1/2017-April 30, 2025 2016-April 30, 2025 Arizona Cholla 113_B_3 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.08 Ib/MMBtu 0.0006 Ib/MMBtu after April 30, 2025 after April 30, 2025 Arizona Cholla 113_B_4 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.22 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 12/1/2017-April 30, 2025 2016-April 30, 2025 Arizona Cholla 113_B_4 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.08 Ib/MMBtu 0.0006 Ib/MMBtu after April 30, 2025 after April 30, 2025 Arizona 3 ------- BART Affected Plants BART Status/ CSAPR/ UniquelD Shutdown/ Coal-to- Gas NOx BART Limit Coal Creek 6030_B_1 BART SO2 Coal Creek 6030_B_2 BART SO2 Coronado 6177_B_U1B BART NOx & BART SO2 0.065 Ib/MMBtu Coronado 6177_B_U2B BART NOx & BART SO2 0.080 Ib/MMBtu Jeffrey Energy Center 6068_B_1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.15 Ib/MMBtu Jeffrey Energy Center 6068_B_2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.15 Ib/MMBtu La Cygne 1241 B 1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.13 Ib/MMBtu (combined both units) La Cygne 1241_B_2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.13 Ib/MMBtu (combined both units) Leland Olds 2817_B_1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.19 Ib/MMBtu Leland Olds 2817_B_2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.35 Ib/MMBtu Merrimack 2364_B_2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.30 Ib/MMBtu Milton R Young 2823_B_B1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.36 Ib/MMBtu Milton R Young 2823_B_B2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.35 Ib/MMBtu Muskogee 2952_B_4 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.15 Ib/MMBtu Muskogee 2952_B_5 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.15 Ib/MMBtu Pawnee 6248_B_1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.07 Ib/MMBtu Ray D Nixon 8219_B_1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.21 Ib/MMBtu Sooner 6095_B_1 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.15 Ib/MMBtu Sooner 6095_B_2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.15 Ib/MMBtu Northeastern 2963_B_3313 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.23 Ib/MMBtu Seminole 136_B_1 BART SO2 Seminole 136_B_2 BART SO2 Northside n r/^ + i n rt 0 + ^+1 r\ n 667_B_1 BART SO2 Generating Station 4 SO2 BART Limit NOx Compliance Date SO2 Compliance Date State 0.15 Ib/MMBtu or 95% efficiency 0.15 Ib/MMBtu or 95% efficiency 0.08 Ib/MMBtu 0.08 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu or 95% efficiency 0.15 Ib/MMBtu or 95% efficiency 90 % control 0.15 Ib/MMBtu or 95% efficiency 0.15 Ib/MMBtu or 95% efficiency 0.06 Ibs/MMBtu 0.06 Ibs/MMBtu 0.12 Ib/MMBtu 0.11 Ib/MMBtu 0.06 Ibs/MMBtu 0.06 Ibs/MMBtu 0.40 Ib/MMBtu 0.25 Ib/MMBtu 0.25 Ib/MMBtu 3600 tpy across 3 units 2018 2018 12/5/2017 12/5/2017 2018 2018 6/1/2015 6/1/2015 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2016 2016 2018 2018 2016 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2016 to 2026 2018 2018 2018 North Dakota North Dakota Arizona Arizona Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas North Dakota North Dakota New Hampshire North Dakota North Dakota Oklahoma Oklahoma Colorado Colorado Oklahoma Oklahoma Oklahoma Florida Florida Florida ------- BART Affected Plants UniquelD BART Status/ CSAPR/ Shutdown/ Coal-to- Gas Northside Generating Station Deerhaven Generating Station 667_B_2 663_B_B2 BART SO2 BART SO2 Big Cajun 2 6055_B_2B1 BART NOx Big Stone 6098_B_1 BART NOx & BART SO2 J H Campbell 1710_B_1 BART SO2 J H Campbell 1710_B_2 BART NOx & BART SO2 J H Campbell 1710_B_3 BART NOx & BART SO2 Dave Johnston 4158_B_BW44 BART NOx Jim Bridger 8066_B_BW71 BART NOx Jim Bridger 8066_B_BW72 BART NOx Jim Bridger 8066_B_BW73 BART NOx Jim Bridger 8066_B_BW74 BART NOx Laramie River Station 6204_B_1 BART NOx & BART SO2 Laramie River Station 6204_B_2 BART NOx & BART SO2 Naughton 4162_B_1 BART NOx Naughton 4162_B_2 BART NOx Naughton 4162_B_3 BART NOx Transalta Centralia 3845_B_BW22 BART NOx & BART SO2 Generation Sherburne County 6090_B_1 BART SO2 Sherburne County 6090_B_2 BART SO2 Hunter 6165_B_1 BART NOx Hunter 6165_B_2 BART NOx Hunter 6165_B_3 BART NOx Huntington 8069_B_1 BART NOx NOx BART Limit 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 0.1 Ib/MMBtu 0.08 Ib/MMBtu 0.08 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 0.26 Ib/MMBtu 0.07 Ib/MMBtu after 2022 0.26 Ib/MMBtu 0.07 Ib/MMBtu after 2022 0.07 Ib/MMBtu 0.07 Ib/MMBtu 0.06 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 0.26 Ib/MMBtu 0.26 Ib/MMBtu 0.07 Ib/MMBtu 0.21 Ib/MMBtu (both units averaged together) 0.26 Ib/MMBtu 0.26 Ib/MMBtu 0.34 Ib/MMBtu 0.26 Ib/MMBtu 5 SO2 BART Limit NOx Compliance Date SO2 Compliance Date State 3600 tpy across 3 units 2018 2018 Florida 5500 tpy 2018 2018 Florida 2014 Louisiana 0.09 Ib/MMBtu 2018 2018 South Dakota 0.29 Ib/MMBtu 2017 Michigan 0.32 Ib/MMBtu 2015 2017 Michigan 0.07 Ib/MMBtu 2015 2018 Michigan 2019 Wyoming 2018 Wyoming 2018 Wyoming 2018 Wyoming 2018 Wyoming 0.12 Ib/MMBtu 2019 Wyoming 0.12 Ib/MMBtu 2019 Wyoming 2019 Wyoming 2019 Wyoming 2019 Wyoming 10000 tpy 2013 2002 Washington 0.05 Ib/MMBtu 9/30/2015 Minnesota 0.05 Ib/MMBtu 9/30/2015 Minnesota 2022 Utah 2022 Utah 2022 Utah 2022 Utah ------- BART Affected Plants UniquelD BART Status/ CSAPR/ Shutdown/ Coal-to- NOx BART Limit SO2 BART Limit NOx Compliance SO2 Compliance State Gas Date Date Huntington 8069_B_2 BART NOx 0.26 Ib/MMBtu 2022 Utah Lawrence Energy Center 1250_B_4 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.18 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 2014 2014 Kansas Lawrence Energy Center 1250_B_5 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 2014 2014 Kansas Tecumseh Energy Center 1252_B_9 BART NOx 0.18 Ib/MMBtu 2018 Kansas B L England 2 2378_B_2 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.1 Ib/MMBTU 0.15 Ib/MMBTU 2012 2011 New Jersey Danskammer Generating Station 2480_B_4 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.12 Ib/MMBTU 0.09 Ib/MMBTU 2014 2014 New York Arthur Kill Generating Station 2490_B_30 BART NOx & BART SO2 0.15 Ib/MMBTU 0.15 Ib/MMBTU 2014 2014 New York Ravenswood 2500_B_10 BART NOx 0.15 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York Ravenswood 2500_B_20 BART NOx 0.15 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York Ravenswood 2500_B_30 BART NOx 0.15 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York E F Barrett 2511_B_20 BART NOx 0.1 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York Northport 2516_B_1 BART NOx 0.1 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York Northport 2516_B_2 BART NOx 0.1 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York Northport 2516_B_3 BART NOx 0.1 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York Northport 2516_B_4 BART NOx 0.1 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York Oswego Harbor Power 2594_B_5 BART NOx & BART SO2 383 tpy 0.8 Ib/MMBTU 2014 2014 New York Oswego Harbor Power 2594_B_6 BART NOx & BART SO2 665 tpy 0.8 Ib/MMBTU 2014 2014 New York Bowline Point 2625_B_1 BART NOx 0.15 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York Bowline Point 2625_B_2 BART NOx 0.15 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York Sherburne County 6090_B_3 BART SO2 0.29 Ib/MMBTU 2017 Minnesota Laramie River Station 6204_B_3 BART NOx 0.15 Ib/MMBtu 2018 Wyoming Antelope Valley 6469_B_B1 BART NOx 0.17 Ib/MMBTU 2018 North Dakota Antelope Valley 6469_B_B2 BART NOx 0.17 Ib/MMBTU 2018 North Dakota Roseton Generating Station 8006_B_1 BART SO2 0.55 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York 6 ------- BART Affected Plants UniquelD BART Status/ CSAPR/ Shutdown/ Coal-to- NOx BART Limit SO2 BART Limit NOx Compliance SO2 Compliance State Gas Date Date Roseton Generating Station 8006_B_2 BART SO2 0.55 Ib/MMBTU 2014 New York Cholla 113 B 1 C2G by 2025 Arizona Cholla 113 B 3 C2G by 2025 Arizona Cholla 113_B_4 C2G by 2025 Arizona Note: Above table does not reflect all BART units, only those that have unit-specific requirements. BART units where CSAPR, a state program, or litigation suggests no current unit-specific requirement are not reflected. 7 ------- Section 3.9.9 Renewable Portfolio Standard Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) generally refers to various state-level policies that require the addition of renewable generation to meet a specified share of statewide electricity sales. In EPA Platform v6, the state RPS requirements are represented at a state level based on requirements. Table 3-19 incorporates updated state level RPS requirements and solar carve-out requirements in CA, DC, MD, ME, NM, NV, NY, OH and WA included in the January 2020 Reference Case. 8 ------- Table 3-19 Renewable Portfolio Standards in EPA Platform v6 State Renewable Portfolio Standards State 2021 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Arizona 6.3% 7.4% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% California 33.0% 38.7% 44.3% 57.5% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% Colorado 21.2% 21.2% 21.2% 21.2% 21.2% 21.2% 21.2% 21.2% Connecticut 26.5% 30.0% 34.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% District of Columbia 26.3% 38.8% 52.0% 87.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Delaware 15.2% 16.6% 18.1% 18.1% 18.1% 18.1% 18.1% 18.1% Iowa 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% Illinois 9.8% 11.5% 13.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% Massachusetts 21.5% 23.5% 25.5% 30.5% 35.5% 40.5% 45.5% 50.5% Maryland 30.5% 34.7% 40.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% Maine 45.0% 51.0% 59.0% 80.0% 85.0% 90.0% 95.0% 100.0% Michigan 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Minnesota 25.7% 25.7% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% Missouri 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% Montana 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% North Carolina 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% New Hampshire 19.8% 21.2% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% New Jersey 23.5% 30.5% 37.5% 52.5% 52.5% 52.5% 52.5% 52.5% New Mexico 20.0% 28.1% 36.1% 45.2% 57.2% 69.2% 70.7% 72.3% Nevada 18.9% 22.9% 29.8% 43.8% 43.8% 43.8% 43.8% 43.8% New York 30.5% 39.3% 48.1% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% Ohio 5.3% 6.2% 7.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% Oregon 14.1% 14.1% 21.0% 27.6% 36.1% 41.1% 42.6% 42.6% Pennsylvania 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% Rhode Island 17.5% 20.5% 23.5% 31.0% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% Texas 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% Vermont 62.4% 67.6% 68.8% 79.8% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% Washington 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% Wisconsin 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.65% State RPS Solar Carve-outs State 2021 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 District of Columbia 2.5% 2.9% 3.5% 5.0% 7.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.0% Delaware 1.8% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Illinois 1.05% 1.23% 1.41% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% Massachusetts 0.17% 0.18% 0.20% 0.24% 0.28% 0.32% 0.36% 0.40% Maryland 6.75% 8.75% 11.50% 14.50% 14.50% 14.50% 14.50% 14.50% Minnesota 1.19% 1.19% 1.19% 1.19% 1.19% 1.19% 1.19% 1.19% Missouri 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% North Carolina 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% New Hampshire 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% New Jersey 5.10% 5.10% 4.80% 2.21% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% New Mexico 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Nevada 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ohio 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pennsylvania 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% Note 1: The Renewable Portfolio Standard percentages are applied to modeled electricity sale projections. Note 2: North Carolina standards are adjusted to account for swine waste and poultry waste set-asides. 9 ------- Offshore Wind Requirement Multiple U.S. states have recently adopted offshore wind energy policies that call for the deployment of 17,668 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2035. Table 3-29 summarizes the state-specific offshore wind mandates that are included in the January 2020 Reference Case. Table 3-29 Offshore Wind Mandates State Bill/Act Mandate Specifications Implementation Year Maryland Senate Bill 516 400 MW, 800 MW, and 1,200 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2026, 2028 and 2030 respectively 2030 Maryland Offshore Wind Energy Act of 2013 368 MW of offshore wind capacity (248 MWof US Wind, Inc. and 120 MW of Skipjack Offshore Energy, LLC projects) 2023 New Jersey Executive Order No. 8 3,500 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 2030 Connecticut House Bill 7156 2,000 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 2030 Massachusetts Massachusetts Energy Diversity Act 1,600 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2027 2030 New York Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act 9,000 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2035 2035 Maine Final Report of the Ocean Energy Task Force, 2009 Goal of 5,000 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 Not implemented Clean Energy Standard A clean energy standard requires a certain percentage of electricity sales be met through zero carbon resources, such as renewables, nuclear energy and hydropower. Several states CA, NM, NV, NY and WA have recently implemented the clean energy standards and the updates are included in the January 2020 Reference Case. These requirements are summarized in Table 3-30. Table 3-30 Clean Energy Standards in EPA Platform v6 State Clean Energy Standards State 2021 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 California . - - 100% New Mexico1 - - 100% 100% Nevada . - - 100% New York - 100% 100% 100% Washington2 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Notes: 1 For 2045 the 100% target is applicable to public utilities and in 2050 it is applicable to both public utilities and rural electric cooperatives. 2Forthe compliance period beginning January 1, 2030, through December 31, 2044, an electric utility may satisfy up to twenty percent of its compliance obligation with an alternative compliance option. 10 ------- 45Q - Credit for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, Section 45Q - which amended a Credit for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration originally passed in 2008 (hereafter referred to as the 45Q tax credit) were implemented in the January 2020 Reference Case. The updated 45Q tax credit (2018) offers increased monetary incentives by way of a tax credit for the capture and geologic storage of CO2 that would otherwise be emitted by electric power plants and other industrial sources in the United States. The basic features of the tax credit include the following: • $12.83 per metric ton in 2016 for carbon dioxide (CO2) captured and injected into existing oil wells for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The credit increases to $35 per metric ton by 2026. The credit for intermediate years is determined by linear interpolation. The credit is adjusted for inflation post 2026. • $22.66 per metric ton in 2016 forCC>2 captured and sequestrated in geologic formation (Non- EOR). The credit increases to $50 per metric ton by 2026. The credit for intermediate years is determined by linear interpolation. The credit is adjusted for inflation post 2026. • The dollar amounts of credit are in 2017 nominal dollars. The difference in the amounts of credit between EOR and Non-EOR is by design to recognize the fact that the EOR captured CO2 can be used to produce oil that may not otherwise be recovered, while the Non-EOR stored CO2 does not bring additional revenue. • The credit applies for 12 years beginning on the date equipment is placed in service. The January 2020 Reference Case implements the 45Q tax credit by applying the value of the credit through an adjustment to the step prices in the CO2 storage cost curves.1 The process involves converting the dollar amounts of credit into 2016 real dollars, calculating weighted average tax credits by run year, and applying the weighted average tax credits to the individual step prices in the CO2 storage cost curves. Annual inflation is assumed to be 1.83%.2 Although the 45Q tax credit expires in 2026, due to an assumed construction lead time of 4 years, a 2030 vintage plant is assumed to qualify for the tax credit. Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) Rule The January 2020 Reference Case includes a representation of the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule. Consistent with the RIA for the Final rule, HRI is adopted at affected units based upon unit size and efficiency. The heat rates and sizes are specified below. Sources that are covered by the rule are divided into twelve groups based on three size categories and four efficiency categories, and a cost and performance assumption for HRI from the candidate technologies is assigned to each group (based upon analysis done to support the Final Rule3). The HRI cost and performance differs across the groups, as 1 For more information on the CO2 storage cost curves, see Chapter 6 - CO2 Capture, Storage, and Transport in the Documentation for EPA's Power Sector Modeling Platform v6 Using Integrated Planning Model. The documentation is available online at https://www.epa.aov/airmarkets/documentation-ipm-platform-v6-all-chapters. 2 For more information on the inflation and other financial assumptions, see Chapter 10 - Financial Assumptions in the Documentation for EPA's Power Sector Modeling Platform v6 Using Integrated Planning Model. The documentation is available online at https://www.epa.aov/airmarkets/documentation-ipm-platform-v6-all-chapters. 3 the Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Repeal of the Clean Power Plan, and the Emission Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Existing Electric Utility Generating Units (2019). Available at https://www.epa.gov/stationarv-sources-air-pollution/affordable-clean-enerav-rule 11 ------- summarized in table below. The representation assumes that all units that are projected to operate in each category adopt HRI measures as specified in the table below. In practice, states may choose to implement ACE differently. As states develop their plans to meet the requirements of ACE, adjustments will be made in EPA's modeling of ACE to best reflect each state's requirements. More information on the development of these illustrative scenario assumptions can be found in Chapter 1 of the Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Repeal of the Clean Power Plan, and the Emission Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Existing Electric Utility Generating Units.4 Table 3-32: HRI Cost and Performance Assumptions for Illustrative Policy Scenario, by Unit Capacity and Heat Rate Small (<25 MW to 200 MW) Medium (200 MW to 500 MW) Large (>500 MW) Group 1 (Most Efficient) < 9,773 Btu/kWh N/A (<1%) N/A (1%) N/A (10%) Group 2 9,774 -10,396 Btu/kWh 1.0% at $47/kW (1%) 0.8% at $32/kW (7%) 0.8% at $25/kW (36%) Group 3 10,397- 11,019 Btu/kWh 2.1% at $47/kW (4%) 1.9% at $32/kW (13%) 1.8% at $25/kW (15%) Group 4 (Least Efficient) > 11,020 Btu/kWh 3.2% at $47/kW (4%) 2.9% at $32/kW (7%) 2.8% at $25/kW (3%) Note: Share of total capacity represented by each category in parentheses. Section 4.1 National Electric Energy Data System (NEEDS) January 2020 Reference Case uses January 2020 version of NEEDS. NEEDS was updated with the comments (retirement and non-retirement) from the NEEDS Comment Tracker. Unretired units have been included. To facilitate the use of the 2030 projections of emissions as a proxy for the 2028 year, the retirement years for NEEDS units with retirement years of 2029 and 2030 were pushed back to 2035 run year. Incremental units including committed units for all fossil and non-fossil units > 25 MW based on a comparison of February 2019 and October 2017 versions of EIA Form 860M were hardwired. 4 Ibid. 12 ------- Table 4-1 Data Sources for NEEDS v6 for EPA Platform v6 Data Source1 Data Source Documentation EIA Form 860 EIA Form 860 is an annual survey of utility and non-utility power plants at the generator level. It contains data such as summer, winter, and nameplate capacity, location (state and county), operating status, prime mover, energy sources and in-service date of existing and proposed generators. NEEDS v6 uses the annual 2015 EIA Form 860, annual 2016 Early Release EIA Form 860, 2017 Early Release EIA Form 860, May 2017 EIA Form 860M, October 2017 EIA Form 860M, July 2018 EIA Form 860M, February 2019 EIA Form 860M and the August 2019 EIA Form 860M as the primary generator data inputs. EIA Form 860 also collects data of steam boilers such as energy sources, boiler identification, location, operating status and design information; and associated environmental equipment such as NOx combustion and post-combustion controls, FGD scrubber, mercury control and particulate collector device information. Note that boilers in plants with less than 10 MW do not report all data elements. The association between boilers and generators is also provided. Note that boilers and generators are not necessarily in a one-to-one correspondence. NEEDS v6 uses 2015 EIA Form 860 and 2016 Early Release EIA Form 860 as the primary boiler data inputs. ElA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook presents annually updated forecasts of energy supply, demand and prices covering a 30-year time horizon. The projections are based on results from ElA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Information from AEO 2017 such as heat rates and planned- committed units were used in NEEDS v6. EPA's Emission Tracking System The Emission Tracking System (ETS) database is updated quarterly. It contains information including primary fuel, heat input, SO2, NOx, Mercury, and HCI controls, and SO2 and NOx emissions. NEEDS v6 uses annual and seasonal ETS (2017) data as one of the primary data inputs for NOx rate development and environmental equipment assignment. Utility and Regional EPA Office Comments Comments from utilities, regional EPA offices and other stakeholders regarding the prior versions of NEEDS. Note: 1 Shown in Table 4-1 are the primary issue dates of the indicated data sources used. Other vintages of these data sources were also used in instances where data were not available for the indicated issued date, or where there were methodological reasons for using other vintages of the data. 13 ------- Table 4-3 Summary Population (through 2018) of Existing Units in NEEDS v6 Plant Type Number of Units Capacity (MW) Biomass 176 3,617 Coal Steam 548 216,442 Combined Cycle 1,866 261,908 Combustion Turbine 5,613 145,228 Energy Storage 98 763 Fossil Waste 81 1,049 Fuel Cell 89 150 Geothermal 153 2,465 Hydro 3,785 79,287 IGCC 5 815 Landfill Gas 1,555 1,827 Municipal Solid Waste 159 2,082 Non-Fossil Waste 209 2,010 Nuclear 92 94,394 O/G Steam 446 72,671 Offshore Wind 1 29 Onshore Wind 1,249 95,456 Pumped Storage 148 22,196 Solar PV 2,788 28,597 Solar Thermal 16 1,754 Tires 2 52 US Total 19,079 1,032,790 Table 4-7 Aggregation Profile of Model Plants as Provided at Set up of EPA Platform v6 Existing and Planned/Committed Units Plant Type Number of Units Number of IPM Model Plants Biomass 300 165 Coal Steam 678 527 Combined Cycle 2,032 891 Combustion Turbine 5,994 2,535 Energy Storage 85 41 Fossil Waste 86 25 Fuel Cell 72 35 Geothermal 174 31 Hydro 5,455 252 IGCC 5 2 IMPORT 1 1 Landfill Gas 1,643 307 Municipal Solid Waste 166 60 Non-Fossil Waste 268 140 Nuclear 115 115 O/G Steam 590 399 Offshore Wind 1 1 Onshore Wind 1,570 89 14 ------- Pumped Storage 155 27 Solar PV 2,532 98 Solar Thermal 17 5 Tires 2 1 Total 21,941 5,747 New Units Plant Type Number of IPM Model Plants New Battery Storage 168 New Biomass 134 New Combined Cycle 456 New Combined Cycle with Carbon Capture 228 New Combustion Turbine 456 New Fuel Cell 150 New Geothermal 93 New Hydro 153 New Landfill Gas 379 New Nuclear 132 New Offshore Wind 894 New Onshore Wind 5,358 New Solar PV 1,373 New Solar Thermal 261 New Ultrasupercritical Coal with 30% CCS 266 New Ultrasupercritical Coal with 90% CCS 266 New Ultrasupercritical Coal without CCS 138 Total 10,905 Retrofits Plant Type Number of IPM Model Plants Retrofit Coal with ACI 74 Retrofit Coal with ACI + CCS 92 Retrofit Coal with ACI + CCS + HRI 92 Retrofit Coal with ACI + CCS + HRI + SCR 20 Retrofit Coal with ACI + CCS + HRI + SNCR 29 Retrofit Coal with ACI + CCS + SCR 20 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI 20 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI 20 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI + SCR 31 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI + SCR + Scrubber 22 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI + Scrubber 18 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI + Scrubber + SNCR 14 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + HRI + SNCR 27 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + SCR 31 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + SCR + Scrubber 22 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + Scrubber 18 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + Scrubber + SNCR 14 Retrofit Coal with ACI + DSI + SNCR 31 15 ------- Retrofi Coa with AC I + HRI Retrofi Coa with AC I + HRI + SCR Retrofi Coa with AC I + HRI + SCR + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with ACI + HRI + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with AC I + HRI + Scrubber + SNCR Retrofi Coa with ACI + HRI + SNCR Retrofi Coa with ACI + SCR Retrofi Coa with ACI + SCR + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with ACI + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with ACI + Scrubber + SNCR Retrofi Coa with ACI + SNCR Retrofi Coa with C2G Retrofi Coa with C2G + SCR Retrofi Coa with CCS Retrofi Coa with CCS + HRI Retrofi Coa with CCS + HRI + SCR Retrofi Coa with CCS + HRI + SCR + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with CCS + HRI + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with CCS + HRI + Scrubber + SNCR Retrofi Coa with CCS + HRI + SNCR Retrofi Coa with CCS + SCR Retrofi Coa with CCS + SCR + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with CCS + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with CCS + Scrubber + SNCR Retrofi Coa with CCS + SNCR Retrofi Coa with DSI Retrofi Coa with DSI + HRI Retrofi Coa with DSI + HRI + SCR Retrofi Coa with DSI + HRI + SCR + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with DSI + HRI + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with DSI + HRI + SNCR Retrofi Coa with DSI + SCR Retrofi Coa with DSI + SCR + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with DSI + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with DSI + SNCR Retrofi Coa with HRI Retrofi Coa with HRI + SCR Retrofi Coa with HRI + SCR + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with HRI + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with HRI + Scrubber + SNCR Retrofi Coa with HRI + SNCR Retrofi Coa with SCR Retrofi Coa with SCR + Scrubber Retrofi Coa with Scrubber Retrofi Coa with Scrubber + SNCR Retrofi Coa with SNCR 74 62 62 53 74 61 62 62 52 75 62 454 454 791 788 252 208 232 152 180 255 212 240 156 183 21 70 75 21 26 69 109 33 38 103 482 432 450 357 408 342 242 582 224 544 203 16 ------- Retrofit Combined Cycle with CCS 2787 Retrofit Oil/Gas steam with SCR 222 Total 13,691 Retirements Plant Type Number of IPM Model Plants Biomass Retirement 165 CC Retirement 891 Coal Retirement 5,394 CT Retirement 2,535 Geothermal Retirement 31 Hydro Retirement 252 IGCC Retirement 2 Landfill Gas Retirement 307 Nuke Retirement 115 Oil/Gas steam Retirement 1,075 Total 10,767 Grand Total (Existing and Planned/Committed + New + Retrofits + Retirements):41,110 Table 4-11 Summary of Planned-Committed Units in NEEDS v6 for EPA Platform v6 Plant Type Capacity (MW) Year Range Described Renewables/Non-conventional Biomass 200 2019-2019 Energy Storage 41 2019-2019 Fuel Cell 15 2019-2019 Hydro 147 2019-2020 Landfill Gas 3 2019-2021 Non-Fossil Waste 67 2019-2020 Onshore Wind 8,230 2019-2024 Solar PV 3,168 2019-2020 Subtotal 11,869 Fossil/Conventional Combined Cycle 13,802 2019-2022 Combustion Turbine 1,747 2019-2021 Nuclear 2,200 2022 - 2023 Subtotal 17,749 Grand Total 29,618 17 ------- Table 4-12 Planned-Committed Units by Model Region in NEEDS v6 for EPA Platform v6 IPM Region Plant Type Capacity (MW) ERC_REST Combined Cycle 232 Onshore Wind 1,069 ERC WEST Energy Storage 10 Onshore Wind 1,626 Solar PV 590 FRCC Biomass 12 Combined Cycle 1,723 Combustion Turbine 74 Solar PV 524 MIS AMSO Combined Cycle 1,000 MIS D MS Combustion Turbine 36 MIS IA Onshore Wind 172 MIS IL Combustion Turbine 3 Onshore Wind 185 MIS LA Non-Fossil Waste 48 MIS LMI Combined Cycle 1,181 Combustion Turbine 8 Onshore Wind 307 MIS_MAPP Combustion Turbine 218 Onshore Wind 150 MIS MIDA Onshore Wind 369 MIS MNWI Combined Cycle 200 Combustion Turbine 20 Onshore Wind 100 MIS WUMS Combined Cycle 700 Combustion Turbine 183 Solar PV 2 NENG_CT Combined Cycle 485 Fuel Cell 7 NENGREST Combustion Turbine 539 Energy Storage 1 Onshore Wind 33 NY_Z_G-I Combined Cycle 1,313 Non-Fossil Waste 19 NY Z J Combustion Turbine 2 PJM AP Onshore Wind 146 PJM ATS I Combined Cycle 1,333 PJM COMD Onshore Wind 212 PJM Dom Solar PV 267 PJM EMAC Combined Cycle 14 PJM_PENE Combined Cycle 1,858 Combustion Turbine 9 PJM_West Combined Cycle 0.01 Combustion Turbine 11 PJM WMAC Combined Cycle 941 S C KY Landfill Gas 1 S C TVA Solar PV 0.4 S_SOU Biomass 188 Combustion Turbine 44 Nuclear 2,200 Solar PV 589 S VACA Combined Cycle 586 Combustion Turbine 13 Solar PV 75 SPP N Onshore Wind 970 SPP NEBR Onshore Wind 478 18 ------- IPM Region Plant Type Capacity (MW) SPP SPS Onshore Wind 999 SPP WAUE Onshore Wind 98 SPP_WEST Onshore Wind 604 Solar PV 3 WEC CALN Solar PV 200 WEC_LADW Combined Cycle 603 Solar PV 100 WEC SDGE Solar PV 80 WECC AZ Combustion Turbine 496 WECC ID Hydro 3 WECC I ID Solar PV 30 WECC_MT Hydro 3 Onshore Wind 80 WECC PNW Hydro 140 WECC SCE Combined Cycle 632 Combustion Turbine 93 Energy Storage 30 Fuel Cell 8 Landfill Gas 2 Onshore Wind 131 Solar PV 350 WECC SNV Solar PV 300 WECC UT Solar PV 58 WECC WY Onshore Wind 500 MIS S WOTA Combined Cycle 1,000 Note: Any unit in NEEDS v6that has an online year of 2019 or later was considered a Planned/Committed Unit. 19 ------- Section 4.4.5 Cost and Performance for Potential Renewable Generating Technologies Cost assumptions for battery storage, solar PV, solar CSP and onshore wind technology were updated based on NREL ATB 2019 mid case. The offshore wind technology cost assumptions from NREL ATB 2019 mid case are approximately modeled by scaling the capital costs and FOM in EPA's November 2018 Reference Case. Table 4-14 Short-Term Capital Cost Adders for New Power Plants in EPA Platform v6 (2016$) PI ant Type 2021 2023 2025 2030 2035 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Biomass Uppe Bound MW) 1,904 3,312 No limit 1,270 2,208 No limit 1,270 2,208 No limit 3,174 5,520 No limit 3,174 5,520 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 1,726 5,483 - 1,697 5,391 - 1,658 5,268 - 1,555 4,939 - 1,477 4,692 Coal Steam - UPC Uppe Bound MW) 18,361 31,932 No limit 12,241 21,288 No limit 12,241 21,288 No limit 30,602 53,220 No limit 30,602 53,220 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 1,652 5,246 - 1,622 5,151 - 1,583 5,027 - 1,479 4,697 - 1,400 4,446 Coal Steam - UPC30 Uppe Bound MW) 18,361 31,932 No limit 12,241 21,288 No limit 12,241 21,288 No limit 30,602 53,220 No limit 30,602 53,220 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 2,285 7,257 - 2,243 7,126 - 2,189 6,955 - 2,045 6,497 - 1,936 6,151 Coal Steam - UPC90 Uppe Bound MW) 18,361 31,932 No limit 12,241 21,288 No limit 12,241 21,288 No limit 30,602 53,220 No limit 30,602 53,220 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 2,526 8,025 - 2,481 7,880 - 2,421 7,690 - 2,262 7,185 - 2,141 6,802 Combined Cycle Uppe Bound MW) 132,125 229,782 No limit 88,083 153,188 No limit 88,083 153,188 No limit 220,208 382,970 No limit 220,208 382,970 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 492 1,563 - 484 1,536 - 472 1,499 - 436 1,384 - 408 1,297 Combustion Turbine Uppe Bound MW) 66,275 115,260 No limit 44,183 76,840 No limit 44,183 76,840 No limit 110,458 192,100 No limit 110,458 192,100 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 298 947 - 292 926 - 282 895 - 255 811 - 236 749 Fuel Cell Uppe Bound MW) 1,725 3,000 No limit 1,150 2,000 No limit 1,150 2,000 No limit 2,875 5,000 No limit 2,875 5,000 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 3,118 9,904 - 3,023 9,603 - 2,912 9,249 - 2,629 8,350 - 2,399 7,619 Geothermal Uppe Bound MW) 883 1,536 No limit 589 1,024 No limit 589 1,024 No limit 1,472 2,560 No limit 1,472 2,560 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 3,785 12,023 - 3,777 11,996 - 3,759 11,939 - 3,718 11,809 - 3,656 11,613 Landfill Gas Uppe Bound MW) 625 1,088 No limit 417 725 No limit 417 725 No limit 1,042 1,813 No limit 1,042 1,813 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 3,993 12,685 - 3,930 12,484 - 3,837 12,189 - 3,593 11,413 - 3,396 10,789 Nuclear Uppe Bound MW) 32,327 56,220 No limit 21,551 37,480 No limit 21,551 37,480 No limit 53,878 93,700 No limit 53,878 93,700 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 2,688 8,538 - 2,524 8,018 - 2,459 7,812 - 2,288 7,267 - 2,156 6,848 SolarThermal Uppe Bound MW) 2,830 4,921 No limit 1,886 3,281 No limit 1,886 3,281 No limit 4,716 8,202 No limit 4,716 8,202 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 2,160 6,861 - 2,420 7,688 - 2,224 7,064 - 1,853 5,886 - 1,655 5,258 Solar PV Uppe Bound MW) 25,858 46,265 No limit 18,406 32,011 No limit 18,406 32,011 No limit 46,016 80,027 No limit 46,016 80,027 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 399 1,269 - 428 1,359 - 404 1,285 - 348 1,105 - 318 1,011 Onshore Wind Uppe Bound MW) 33,941 67,466 No limit 30,238 52,588 No limit 30,238 52,588 No limit 75,595 131,470 No limit 75,595 131,470 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 715 2,271 - 683 2,171 - 651 2,068 - 572 1,818 - 526 1,671 Hydro Uppe Bound MW) 10,360 18,018 No limit 6,907 12,012 No limit 6,907 12,012 No limit 17,267 30,030 No limit 17,267 30,030 No limit Adde (S/kW) - 1,046 3,323 - 1,046 3,323 - 1,046 3,323 - 1,046 3,323 - 1,046 3,323 20 ------- Table 4-16 Performance and Unit Cost Assumptions for Potential (New) Renewable and Non-Conventional Technology Capacity in EPA Platform v6 Biomass- Landfill Gas Solar Thermal Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Bubbling Fluidized Bed Geothermal LGHI LGLo LGVLo Fuel Cells Solar Photovoltaic (BFB) Size (MW) 50 50 50 10 150 100 100 400 First Year Available 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 Lead Time (Years) 4 4 3 3 1 3 3 3 Availability 83% 90% - 95% 90% 87% 90% 90% 95% 95% Generation Capability Economic Dispatch Economic Dispatch Economic Dispatch Economic Dispatch Generation Profile Economic Dispatch Generation Profile Generation Profile Vintage #1 (2021-2054) Vintage #1 (2021) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 13,500 30,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 8,653 0 0 0 0 Capital (2016$/kW) 3,733 3,072-21,106 8,556 10,780 16,598 6,889 1,020 6,190 1,440 3,149 Fixed O&M (2016$/kW/yr) 110.34 105-542 410.32 410.32 410.32 0.00 12.24 64.76 41.35 85.45 Variable O&M (2016$/MWh) 5.49 0.00 9.14 9.14 9.14 44.9 0 4.0 0 0 Vintage #2 (2023) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 7,807 0 0 0 0 Capital (2016$/kW) 6,680 979 5,755 1,387 2,909 Fixed O&M (2016$/kW/yr) 0.0 11.75 61.53 40.65 80.42 Variable O&M (2016$/MWh) 44.9 0 3.4 0 0 Vintage #3 (2025) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 6,960 0 0 0 0 Capital (2016$/kW) 6,434 938 5,350 1,334 2,686 Fixed O&M (2016$/kW/yr) 0.0 11.25 58.30 39.96 75.69 Variable O&M (2016$/MWh) 44.9 0 3.4 0 0 Vintage #4 (2030) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 6,960 0 0 0 0 Capital (2016$/kW) 5,809 834 4,603 1,202 2,203 Fixed O&M (2016$/kW/yr) 0 10.01 50.23 38.22 65.06 Variable O&M (2016$/MWh) 44.9 0 3.4 0 0 Vintage #5 (2035) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 6,960 0 0 0 0 Capital (2016$/kW) 5,300 788 4,161 1,137 1,807 Fixed O&M (2016$/kW/yr) 0 9.45 50.23 36.78 55.93 21 ------- Biomass- Landfill Gas Solar Photovoltaic Solar Thermal Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Bubbling Fluidized Bed Geothermal LGHI LGLo LGVLo Fuel Cells (BFB) Variable O&M (2016$/MWh) 44.9 0 3.4 0 0 Vintage #6 (2040) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 6,960 0 0 0 0 Capital (2016$/kW) 4,841 742 3,930 1,071 1,484 Fixed O&M (2016$/kW/yr) 0 8.90 50.23 35.35 48.08 Variable O&M (2016$/MWh) 44.9 0 3.4 0 0 Vintage #7 (2045) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 6,960 0 0 0 0 Capital (2016$/kW) 4,402 701 3,814 1,005 1,219 Fixed O&M (2016$/kW/yr) 0 8.42 50.23 33.92 41.34 Variable O&M (2016$/MWh) 44.9 0 3.4 0 0 Vintage #8 (2050) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 6,960 0 0 0 0 Capital (2016$/kW) 3,968 661 3,722 939 1,001 Fixed O&M (2016$/kW/yr) 0 7.94 50.23 32.48 35.56 Variable O&M (2016$/MWh) 44.9 0 3.4 0 0 22 ------- Table 4-20 Onshore Average Capacity Factor by Wind TRG TRG Capacity Factor Vintage #1 (2021-2054) Vintage #2 (2030-2054) Vintage #3 (2040-2054) 1 51.60% 54.23% 54.49% 2 49.36% 52.06% 52.44% 3 48.16% 50.90% 51.38% 4 46.69% 49.48% 50.09% 5 43.78% 46.59% 47.30% 6 39.11% 41.87% 42.58% 7 32.84% 35.42% 36.09% 8 26.09% 28.43% 29.05% 9 19.32% 21.28% 21.83% 10 12.02% 13.40% 13.78% Table 4-21 Onshore Reserve Margin Contribution by Wind TRG TRG Vintage #1 (2021-2054) Vintage #2 (2030-2054) Vintage #3 (2040-2054) 1 0% - 50% 0% - 53% 0% - 54% 2 0% - 84% 0% - 88% 0% - 90% 3 0% - 82% 0% - 87% 0% - 90% 4 0% - 81 % 0% - 86% 0% - 90% 5 0% - 78% 0% - 83% 0% - 90% 6 0% - 74% 0% - 79% 0% - 90% 7 0% - 69% 0% - 75% 0% - 90% 8 0% - 67% 0% - 73% 0% - 82% 9 0% 0% 0%-1% 10 0% 0% 0% Table 4-23 Offshore Shallow Reserve Margin Contribution by Wind TRG TRG Vintage #1 (2021-2054) Vintage #2 (2030-2054) Vintage #3 (2040-2054) 1 0% - 88% 0% - 89% 0% - 90% 2 0% - 88% 0% - 89% 0% - 90% 3 0% - 88% 0% - 89% 0% - 90% Table 4-25 Offshore Mid Depth Reserve Margin Contribution by Wind TRG TRG Vintage #1 (2021-2054) Vintage #2 (2030-2054) Vintage #3 (2040-2054) 5 0% - 88% 0% - 89% 0% - 90% 6 0% - 88% 0% - 89% 0% - 90% Table 4-27 Offshore Deep Reserve Margin Contribution by Wind TRG TRG Vintage #1 (2021-2054) Vintage #2 (2030-2054) Vintage #3 (2040-2054) 8 0% - 87% 0% - 88% 0% - 70% 23 ------- Table 4-32 Solar Photovoltaic Reserve Margin Contribution by Resource Class Resource Class CO CO CO CM Reserve Margin Contribution 0%-1% 0% - 61% 0% - 90% 0% - 90% 0% - 90% 0% - 74% 0% - 77% Section 4.4.5 Energy Storage Energy storage is the capture of energy produced at one time for use at a later time. Presently, the most common energy storage technologies are pumped storage and lithium-ion battery storage. EPA Platform v6 now includes battery storage by IPM region and state. Table 4-35 summarizes the key cost and performance assumptions for new battery storage as implemented in the January 2020 Reference Case. These assumptions are based on NREL ATB 2019 mid case. Table 4-35 Performance and Unit Cost Assumptions for Potential (New) Battery Storage Battery Storage Size (MW) 30 First Year Available 2021 Lead Time (Years) 1 Availability (%) 96.4 Reserve Margin Contribution (%) 100 Generation Capability Economic Dispatch Storage System Efficiency (%) 85 Charge Capacity (Hours) 4 Variable O&M (2016$/MWh) - Capital Cost without IDC (2016$/kW) Fixed O&M (2016$/kW/yr) 2021 1,198 29.94 2023 1,074 26.84 2025 949 23.73 2030 795 19.88 2035 745 18.63 2040 696 17.39 2045 646 16.15 2050 596 14.91 Multiple U.S. states have instituted standalone targets and mandates for energy storage procurement. January 2020 Reference Case has incorporated updated storage mandates in California, Massachusetts, and New York. The mandates related to California Assembly Bill 2868 and Senate Bill 801 were removed as these mandates did not have a specific year for implementation. Table 4-36 summarizes the state- specific energy storage mandates that are included in the January 2020 Reference Case. 24 ------- Table 4-36 Energy Storage Mandates in EPA Platform v6 State/Region Bill Mandate Type Mandate Specifications Implementation Status California Assembly Bill No. 2514 Target in MW Energy storage target of 1,325 megawatts for Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Southern California Edison, and San Diego Gas & Electric by 2020, with installations required no later than the end of 2024. 2025 LADWP adopted a resolution setting its 2021 energy storage target at 178 MW. New York New York State Energy Storage Target Target in MW 1,500 Megawatts by 2025 and up to 3,000 megawatts by 2030 2025 New Jersey Assembly Bill No. 3723 Target in MW 600 megawatts of energy storage by 2021 and 2,000 megawatts of energy storage by 2030. 2021 Oregon House Bill 2193 Target in MWh per electric company An electric company shall procure one or more qualifying energy storage systems that have the capacity to store at least five megawatt hours of energy on or before January 1, 2020. 2020 Massachusetts Chapter 188 Target in MWh 200 Megawatt hour (MWh) energy storage target for electric distribution companies to procure viable and cost-effective energy storage systems to be achieved by January 1, 2020. 2020 House Bill 4857 Target in MWh Goal of 1,000 MWh of energy storage by the end of 2025. 2025 Section 4.5.1 New Jersey ZEC Bill New Jersey has established a ZEC program. Salem Harbor 1 & 2 and Hope Creek nuclear units are eligible to receive payments during the year of implementation plus the three following years and may be considered for additional three-year renewal periods thereafter. January 2020 Reference Case has modeled the New Jersey ZEC bill by disabling the retirement options for Salem Harbor 1 & 2 and Hope Creek nuclear power plants in 2021 run year. 25 ------- |