U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
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June 2012
Public Review Draft - June 29, 2012 Page 1
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Disclaimer
To the extent this document mentions or discusses statutory or regulatory authority, it does so
for informational purposes only. This document does not substitute for those statutes or
regulations, and readers should consult the statutes or regulations to learn what they require.
Neither this document, nor any part of it, is itself a rule or a regulation. Thus, it cannot change
or impose legally binding requirements on EPA, States, the public, or the regulated community.
Further, any expressed intention, suggestion or recommendation does not impose any legally
binding requirements on EPA, States, tribes, the public, or the regulated community. Agency
decision makers remain free to exercise their discretion in choosing to implement the actions
described in this Plan. Such implementation is contingent upon availability of resources and is
subject to change.
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Contributors
This document was produced by the Cross-EPA Work Group on Climate Change Adaptation
Planning. The Work Group members include:
Chair
Senior Advisor for Climate Adaptation
Office of the Administrator/Office of Policy: Joel D. Scheraga
Office of Administration and
Resources Management (OARM): Dan Amon
Office of Air and Radiation (OAR): Bill Perkins, Erika Sasser, Lourdes Morales
Office of the Chief Financial Officer (OCFO): Wyatt Boyd, Jason Bossie
Office of the Congressional
and Intergovernmental Relations (OCIR): Reynold Meni
Office of Chemical Safety and
Pollution Prevention (OCSPP): Richard Dumas
Office of Enforcement
and Compliance Assurance (OECA): Gerard C. Kraus, Melanie Shepherdson, Carol
Holmes
Office of Environmental Justice (OECA/OEJ): Victoria Robinson
Office of External Affairs
and Environmental Education (OEAEE): Cathy Milbourn, Enesta Jones
Office of General Council (OGC):
James Curtin, Daniel P. Schramm, Thomas
Marshall
Office of Homeland Security (OHS):
Steve Williams
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Office of International and Tribal
Affairs (OITA): David Guest, Anthony Socci
Office of Policy (OP) Gerald Filbin, Catherine Allen
Office of Research and Development (ORD): Andy Miller, Michael Slimak
Office of Solid Waste
and Emergency Response (OSWER): Brigid Lowery, Jennifer Brady
Office of Water (OW): Karen Metchis, Joel Corona
Region 1: Ken Moraff, Cynthia Greene
Region 2: Paul Simon, Irene Nielson
Region 3: Michael Dunn, Joe Piotrowski
Region 4: Beverly Banister, Kenneth Mitchell
Region 5 Timothy Henry, Kate Balasa
Region 6: Jim Brown, Jim Yarbrough
Region 7: Rebecca Weber, Toni Gargas
Region 8: Laura Farris
Region 9: Karen Schwinn, Suzanne Marr
Region 10: Joyce Kelly, Bruce Duncan
Staff Support: Leah Cohen (Office of Policy)
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Part 1: Vision of the Future EPA
We live in a world in which the climate is changing. Changes in climate have occurred since the
formation of the planet. But humans are now influencing Earth's climate and causing it to
change in unprecedented ways.
It is in this rapidly changing world that EPA is working to fulfill its mission to protect human
health and the environment. Many of the outcomes
EPA is working to attain (e.g., clean air, safe drinking
water) are sensitive to changes in weather and
climate. Until now, EPA has been able to assume that
climate is relatively stable and future climate will
mirror past climate. However, with climate changing
more rapidly than society has experienced in the past, the past is no longer a good predictor of
the future. Climate change is posing new challenges to EPA's ability to fulfill its mission.
It is essential that EPA adapt to anticipate and plan for future changes in climate. It must
integrate, or mainstream, considerations of climate change into its programs, policies, rules and
operations to ensure they are effective under future climatic conditions. Through climate
adaptation planning, EPA will continue to protect human health and the environment, but in a
way that accounts for the effects of climate change.
EPA has not yet conducted a detailed quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of its mission
to climate change. This Climate Change Adaptation Plan uses expert judgment, combined with
information from peer-reviewed scientific literature on the impacts of climate change, to
identify potential vulnerabilities. It then presents priority actions the Agency will take to begin
integrating climate adaptation planning into its activities.
EPA's focus on climate adaptation is part of a larger federal effort to increase the nation's
adaptive capacity and promote a healthy and
prosperous nation that is resilient to a changing
climate . A central element of EPA's efforts to adapt
to a changing climate will be to strengthen the
adaptive capacity of its own staff and its partners
across the country. It will increase staff's awareness
of ways that climate change may affect their ability
to implement effective programs. It will empower
staff to integrate climate adaptation into the work they do by providing them with the
necessary data, information and tools.
Vision
EPA continues to fulfill its mission of
protecting human health and the
environment even as the climate changes.
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a human
or natural system to adjust to climate
change (including climate variability and
extremes) to moderate potential damages,
to take advantage of opportunities, or to
cope with the consequences.
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EPA will also strengthen the adaptive capacity of its partners across the country in ways that are
critical to attaining the Agency's mission. States, tribes, and local communities share
responsibility for protecting human health and the environment, and partnerships with EPA are
at the heart of the country's environmental protection system. These partnerships will be
critical for efficient, effective and equitable implementation of climate adaptation strategies.
EPA's Regional and Program Offices will therefore work with their partners, engage local
stakeholders, and use a diversity of approaches to build adaptive capacity and encourage
climate adaptation planning depending upon state, local, and tribal needs and conditions. EPA
will continue to work with other federal agencies and international partners to enhance
understanding of climate change and will also leverage collective knowledge about climate
adaptation planning.
EPA Policy Statement on Climate-Change Adaptation
EPA issued its first Policy Statement on Climate-Change Adaptation in June 2011.1 The Policy
Statement recognizes that climate change can pose significant challenges to EPA's ability to
fulfill its mission. It calls for the Agency to anticipate and
plan for future changes in climate and incorporate
considerations of climate change into its activities.
The Policy Statement notes that many programs
throughout the Agency have already begun to anticipate and address the implications of a
changing climate. These efforts have laid a solid foundation on which to build climate
adaptation planning into EPA's activities. Nevertheless, more needs to be done.
The Policy Statement calls for the development and implementation of this EPA Climate Change
Adaptation Plan to integrate climate adaptation into the Agency's programs, policies, rules and
operations. Priority activities are to be identified that will be undertaken by the Program and
Regional Offices, and reflected in the EPA's annual budget submissions. This Plan lays out the
priority actions to begin the long-term process of integrating climate adaptation into the
Agency's activities.
The Policy Statement also directs every EPA Program and Regional Office to develop an
Implementation Plan that provides more detail on how it will meet the priorities and carry out
the work called for in the agency-wide plan. At the same time, the Policy Statement recognizes
that each Office is best positioned to determine how to integrate climate adaptation into its
own activities, and provides each Office with the flexibility to develop its Implementation Plan
in a manner consistent and compatible with its own circumstances and objectives.
All of this work will be guided by principles representing EPA's core values. EPA's efforts to
integrate climate adaptation into existing programs and activities will use the best available
"I skate to where the puck is going to
be, not where it has been."
Hockey great, Wayne Gretzky
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science, protect populations and locations most vulnerable to climate change and with the least
ability to adapt, and use sensible analytic methods and approaches for developing adaptation
strategies. Partnerships will be forged that include multiple levels of government, as well as
private and nongovernmental partners throughout the country and internationally.
The Policy Statement acknowledges that mainstreaming adaptation planning will be an
ongoing, long-term activity. The effectiveness of the Agency's adaptation activities will be
monitored and evaluated to continually assess the effectiveness of actions. Lessons will be
learned and shared across the Agency and with its partners at home and abroad. Likewise, EPA
will learn from the experiences of its international counterparts and partners. Adjustments to
the Agency's approaches and plans will be made as necessary. These adjustments will be
reflected in regular updates to this agency-wide Plan.2
Initial Strategic Measures
EPA has established initial goals for mainstreaming climate adaptation planning into its
activities. The FY2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan contains the Agency's first "strategic
performance measures" for integrating climate adaptation into its day-to-day operations.3
Explicit commitments to attain the performance measures are now included in EPA's annual
budget submissions to Congress.
The strategic performance measures contained in the FY2011-2015 Strategic Plan commit the
Agency to integrating adaptation planning into five major rulemaking processes and five major
financial assistance mechanisms by 2015, using existing authorities. They also call for the
integration of adaptation planning into five major scientific models or decision-support tools
used in implementing Agency environmental management programs. These Strategic Plan
commitments represent the Agency's best and most informed judgment about the most
effective mechanisms for building adaptive capacity and promoting adaptive planning within
EPA and by its partners. They also provide a set of measures for monitoring the Agency's
progress on adaptation planning.
EPA emphasizes the importance of evaluating activities and acting on the lessons learned. EPA
will seek to identify where its climate adaptation activities might have the greatest impact on
protecting human health and the environment, replicate its successes, and identify areas
needing improvement. It will be an ongoing challenge to measure the direct impact of EPA's
adaptation planning activities on the resilience of its programs, and on the human health and
environmental outcomes it is striving to attain. The Agency will continue to explore, test and
evaluate other approaches for mainstreaming adaptation planning besides those already
contained in the strategic performance measures. If necessary, it will develop improved
strategic measures and annual performance measures. This ongoing process of evaluation and
learning is consistent with EPA's commitment to transparency and accountability.
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Contribution to a Healthy and Prosperous Nation
The priority placed on mainstreaming climate adaptation within EPA complements efforts to
encourage and mainstream adaptation planning across the entire federal government. Federal
agencies now recognize that climate change poses challenges to their missions, operations and
programs. Ensuring the capacity of federal government agencies to maintain essential services
and achieve their missions in the face of climate change is critical for successful adaptation by
the entire nation. Federal agencies are working together to plan for climate change using
approaches that no longer assume past conditions are good indicators of the future. Although
there is no single planning approach appropriate for all agencies, the use of consistent, but
flexible, frameworks facilitates coordination across agencies and allows them to leverage
common tools and methods.4
The federal government has an important and unique role in climate change adaptation, but is
only one part of a broader effort that must include public and private partners throughout the
country and internationally. Partnerships with states, tribes, local communities, other
governments and international organizations, many of which have already begun to implement
adaptation measures, are essential.
EPA's leadership and commitment to help build the nation's adaptive capacity are vital to the
goal of protecting human health and the environment. Working with its partners, the Agency
will help promote a healthy and prosperous nation that is resilient to a changing climate.
Endnotes
1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Policy Statement on Climate-Change Adaptation, June 2, 2011,
http://epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/impacts-adaptation/adaptation-statement.pdf.
2 Executive Order 13514 resulted in a process that requires every federal agency to submit annual progress reports
to its sustainability and climate change adaptation plans.
3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, FY2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan, Achieving Our Vision (2011),
http://epa.gov/planandbudget/strategicplan.html.
4 White House Council on Environmental Quality, Progress Report on the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation
Task Force: Recommended Actions in Support of a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (Washington, DC,
October 5, 2010).
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2. Known Vulnerabilities to EPA's Mission from Climate
Change
2.1 Climate Change and Climate Impacts
The global climate is changing, and the impacts of this change are being felt across the United
States and the world. These impacts pose new challenges to EPA as it strives to fulfill its mission
of protecting human health and the environment. It is essential for the EPA to adapt if it is to
reduce the vulnerability of its mission to climate change and continue fulfilling its statutory,
regulatory and programmatic requirements. It is vital that
the EPA anticipate and plan for future changes in climate
and incorporate considerations of climate change into
many of its programs, policies, rules, and operations to
ensure they remain effective under future climatic
conditions.
During the past 50 years, average temperature across the
United States has risen more than 2°F, while precipitation
has increased an average of about 5 percent. Some
extreme weather events, such as heat waves, intense precipitation events and regional
droughts, have become more frequent and intense. One of the precipitation trends in the
United States is the increasing frequency and intensity of heavy downpours (the types of events
that cause runoff of pollutants and pathogens into our rivers and streams, and cause combined
sewer systems to overflow in our cities). This change in heavy downpours was responsible for
most of the observed increase in overall precipitation during the last 50 years.1 Also, during the
past 50 years, sea level has risen up to 8 inches or more along some coastal areas of the United
States, and has fallen in other locations.2
These trends are expected to continue, partly due to past and future emissions of heat-trapping
greenhouse gases from human activities, but will occur against a background of natural
variations in climate.3 In the United States, temperatures are projected to warm substantially
over the 21st century under all projections of future climate change. These changes pose risks
for a wide range of human and environmental systems, including public health, the quality of
the air we breathe and the water we drink, freshwater resources, the coastal environment,
wildlife and ecosystems, infrastructure, economic activity, cultural resources and social well-
being. As such, the impacts of climate change introduce vulnerabilities across the mission and
goals of EPA.
Around the world all countries are expected to feel the effects of climate change, although the
specific impacts will vary. The impacts, however, are expected to disproportionately affect
developing countries and those already at risk.4 Within the United States, certain parts of the
Vulnerability
Vulnerability is the degree to which a
system is susceptible to, or unable to
cope with, adverse effects of climate
change, including climate variability
and extremes.
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population may be especially vulnerable to climate change5. For example, EPA recognizes that
climate change may have significant impacts on subsistence resources in rural communities,
Alaskan Native villages, and Indian Country. EPA's efforts to anticipate and adapt to the effects
of climate change on its core mission, therefore will include helping the most vulnerable people
and places reduce their exposure to climate change and improving their capacity to predict,
prepare for and avoid adverse impacts.6
2.2 Synthesis of EPA's Vulnerabilities
The best available science directs our attention to areas where EPA's mission, facilities, and
operations may be adversely affected by climate change. EPA has not yet conducted a detailed
quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of its mission t(
climate change. This Climate Change Adaptation Plan uses
expert judgment, combined with information from peer-
reviewed scientific literature on the impacts of climate
change, to identify potential vulnerabilities.
This section summarizes the Agency's known mission,
facility, and operational vulnerabilities. As scientific
understanding increases, other vulnerabilities may join the
list. This summary is organized by EPA's five strategic goals,
which represent EPA's approach to its work and reflect the
results it works to achieve on behalf of the American
people:7
Goal 1: Taking Action on Climate Change and Improving Air Quality
Goal 2: Protecting America's Waters
Goal 3: Cleaning Up Communities and Advancing Sustainable Development
Goal 4: Ensuring the Safety of Chemicals and Preventing Pollution
Goal 5: Enforcing Environmental Laws
In addition to known vulnerabilities affecting each of the five goals, EPA has begun to assess the
vulnerabilities of its facilities and operations to a changing climate. EPA must ensure the safety
of its personnel, the safe and continued operation of its buildings and other critical assets (e.g.,
vehicles), and the integrity of its grants and procurement systems. In the event of any
catastrophic weather event, EPA's people, buildings and operations could be impacted. These
vulnerabilities are summarized in this section. Finally, this section includes information on
climate change impacts on the most vulnerable communities. For example, the Agency has a
priority focus on children's environmental health and environmental justice, including minority,
low-income, and indigenous populations, and these populations are discussed.
The assessment of EPA's climate-
related vulnerabilities is an ongoing
process. This summary of known
vulnerabilities should be viewed as
a living document that will be
updated as needed to account for
new knowledge, data and scientific
evidence.
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The assessment of EPA's climate change vulnerabilities is a dynamic process. The extent to
which vulnerabilities have been identified and are understood varies across goals. The science
of climate change will improve over time, providing greater weight of evidence to evaluate the
consequences of existing and expected impacts. EPA will continue to identify new
vulnerabilities and improve its understanding of known vulnerabilities as it undertakes more
research, assessment, and monitoring activities, and fills in data gaps.
Examples of Data, Information, and Research Needs to Improve EPA's Assessment of its
Vulnerabilities from Climate Change
Potential vulnerabilities remain difficult to assess in some areas because of limited scientific understanding of the
potential impacts of climate change on some of EPA's programs. Examples of data, information, and/or research
needs include:
Characterization of local impacts to precipitation and hydrology for use in planning long-lived water
infrastructure.
Monitoring shifts in water quality and aquatic ecosystems in watersheds, and methods for incorporating such
changes into water quality programs.
The potential impact of more intense weather events on EPA's disaster response planning efforts.
The site-specific impacts of climate change on Brownfields, Corrective Action Facilities under the Resource
Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), Superfund sites, RCRA Treatment, Storage and Disposal (TSD) facilities,
non-hazardous solid waste facilities, and Leaking Underground Storage Tanks.
The effect of climate change on energy efficiency programs given changes in energy demand and supply.
The interactions between climate and the stratospheric ozone layer.
The effects of climate change on multi-pollutant interactions in ecosystems.
A characterization of climate-related trends in chemical use [e.g., changing patterns of pesticide use and new
chemical exposures to people and the environment), and implications for the review process for new chemicals
or the registration process for new pesticides.
2.3.1 Goal 1: Taking Action on Climate Change and Improving Air Quality
America's communities face health and environmental challenges from air pollution, some of
which are exacerbated by the growing effects of climate change. EPA is working with its
partners to protect public health and the environment with programs that address indoor and
outdoor air quality, climate change, pollution prevention, energy efficiency, industrial air
pollution, pollution from vehicles and engines, radon, acid rain, stratospheric ozone depletion,
and radiation protection. Within this broad portfolio, several programmatic areas are
vulnerable to future climate change, presenting challenges for EPA to continue to achieve its
core mission.
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The extent of vulnerability, however, differs across program areas and is tied to EPA's
understanding of the science and projections of future climate change impacts. Some key areas
of known vulnerability for EPA's air programs are:
Tropospheric ozone pollution is likely to increase in certain regions due to the effects of
climate change The relationship between temperature changes and tropospheric ozone
formation is well understood. With climate change, higher temperatures and weaker air
circulation in the United States will lead to more ozone formation even with the same level of
emissions of ozone forming chemicals.8 Studies project that climate change could increase
tropospheric ozone levels over broad areas of the country, especially on the highest-ozone
days.9 Climate change also has the potential to lengthen the ozone season (the months of the
year when weather conditions, along with pollutants in the air, can result in the formation of
ground-level ozone in particular locations around the country), and may increase individuals'
vulnerability to air pollution.1"
EPA is working to reduce
the number of areas in
America that do not meet
air quality standards.
Increases in ozone due to
climate change may make
it more difficult to attain or
maintain ozone standards.
This will need to be taken
into account when
designing effective ozone
precursor emission control
programs.
Increases in tropospheric
ozone concentrations due
to climate change would
increase the public health burden from air pollution. The potential impacts on public health
include more respiratory illnesses and increased risk of premature deaths.1 This is a particular
concern to sensitive subpopulations which are at risk for health effects from exposure to ozone.
In order to better protect human health, Federal, state, tribal, and local governments will need
to respond by improving the effectiveness of existing emissions control programs for ozone
precursors or by implementing new control measures that will ensure attainment of the ozone
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).
Climate Change Impacts on Tropospheric Ozone Pollution
Studies project that climate
change could increase
tropospheric ozone levels over
broad areas of the country.
Climate change also has the
potential to lengthen the
ozone season, and may
increase
individuals' vulnerability to air
pollution.
Photo: U.S. EPA
Sources: (1) U.S. EPA (2009). Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change on
Regional U.S. Air Quality: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Ground-
Level Ozone. An Interim Report of the U.S. EPA Global Change Research
Program. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC,
EPA/600/R-07/094F. (2) K. Katsouyanni, et al., "Air Pollution and Health: A
European and North American Approach (APHENA)," HEI Health Review
Committee, Research Report #142 (Boston, MA: Health Effects Institute,
October 2009), 5-90.
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Particulate matter (PM) levels are likely to be affected through changes in the frequency or
intensity of wildfires. While the impact of climate change on ambient PM levels remains
somewhat uncertain, there is evidence indicating that climate change will affect PM levels
through changes in the frequency or intensity of wildfires.12 The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) has reported with very high confidence that in North America,
disturbances such as wildfires are increasing and are likely to intensify in a warmer future with
drier soils and longer growing seasons.13 Forest fires are likely to increase in frequency, severity,
distribution and duration in the Southeast, the Intermountain West and the West due to
climate change. The potential increase in PM resulting from wildfires may increase the public
health burden in affected areas, which may include sensitive subpopulations at risk for
increased health effects from being exposed to PM pollution and also contribute to factors
affecting attainment of the PM NAAQS and programs to address regional transport of air
pollution.
Climate change may worsen the quality of indoor air. Climate change may worsen existing
indoor environmental problems and introduce new ones as it alters the frequency or severity of
adverse outdoor conditions. Some examples of potential indoor air quality impacts include:
Heavy precipitation events may contribute to increases in indoor dampness and building
deterioration, increasing occupants' exposure to mold and other biological contaminants
and emissions from building materials, as well as outdoor environmental pollutants, due to
breakdown of the protective building envelope.
Temperature increases may affect the emergence, evolution and geographic ranges of
pests, infectious agents and disease vectors. This may lead to shifting patterns of indoor
exposure to pesticides as occupants and building owners respond to new infestations.
Warmer average temperatures may lead to changes in occupant behavior that may create
health risks. For example, residents may spend more time indoors and in so doing, may
become more prone to health risks from indoor environmental conditions. Moreover,
residents may weatherize buildings to increase comfort and indoor environmental quality in
addition to saving energy. Although in general, these actions should be encouraged, this
may lead to a reduction in ventilation and an increase in indoor environmental pollutants
unless measures are taken to preserve or improve indoor air quality.14
These impacts may increase public health risks, particularly to the young, the elderly, and other
disproportionately impacted populations.
Climate change may alter the effects of and strategic priorities within EPA's regulatory and
voluntary programs to help restore the stratospheric ozone layer. The interactions between
the changing climate and ozone layer are complex. Climate change affects the ozone layer
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through changes in chemical transport, atmospheric composition and temperature. In turn,
changes in stratospheric ozone can have implications for the weather and climate of the
troposphere. Stratospheric ozone depletion and increases in global tropospheric ozone that
have occurred in recent decades have differing contributions to climate change. Additionally,
climate change may exacerbate the health effects of ozone layer damage at some latitudes and
mitigate them at others.15 Ozone depletion and climate change are also linked because both
ozone depleting substances and their principal substitutes are significant greenhouse gases.
While the science continues to evolve, potential climate change impacts are included in the
planning and implementation of the Agency's programs to protect stratospheric ozone.
Scientific understanding related to ways that climate change may affect the interactions of
sulfur, nitrogen, and mercury deposition with ecosystems is evolving. While there is limited
scientific evidence on this topic, additional research is underway to better understand how
patterns in the atmospheric deposition of sulfur, nitrogen, and mercury with projected changes
in the climate and carbon cycle will affect ecosystem growth, species changes, surface water
chemistry, and mercury methylation and bioaccumulation.16 The potential impacts could have
consequences for the effectiveness of ecosystem protection from Agency emissions reduction
programs.
2.3.2 Goal 2: Protecting America's Waters
The nation's water is the lifeblood of our communities, supporting our economy and way of life,
and is the basis of all ecosystems.
EPA works with its state, local and tribal partners to protect and restore the nation's waters.
Together we protect public health by reducing human exposure to contaminants in drinking
water, fish and shellfish, and recreational waters. We protect and restore watersheds and
aquatic ecosystems by protecting the quality of rivers, lakes, streams, wetlands and coastal and
ocean waters. EPA's programs include support for drinking water, wastewater and stormwater
infrastructure; setting standards for protecting water quality and regulating municipal, and
industrial discharges of pollutants to waters; working to control nonpoint sources of pollution;
monitoring conditions of surface water, watersheds, beaches and coastal and ocean waters;
and implementing programs to preserve healthy watersheds and to restore impaired waters.
Climate change alters the hydrological cycle, changing the background conditions in which
natural and man-made systems function. Changes have already been observed and are
expected to continue, such as warming air and water, changes in the location and amount of
rain and snow, increased intensity of rainfall and tropical storms, sea level rise, changes in
ocean chemistry, and indirect effects related to energy generation and fuel production.17
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While there is relatively high confidence in our ability to project temperature increases due to
climate change, projected changes in precipitation and its effects on hydrology at the local scale
are less certain. Therefore,
a key challenge will be how
to help local decision
makers understand
potential local impacts, and
how to make long-term
plans under a new range of
uncertainty about future
hydrologic conditions.
Water resource managers
will also need to consider
the local impacts of climate
change as they grapple
with other challenges-
including population
growth, land use changes,
economic constraints, and a variety of stressors to the quality and quantity of our nations
waters.
Protection of water quality, and restoration and protection of watersheds, wetlands, oceans,
and aquatic ecosystems will be greatly challenged by changes in climate throughout the
United States EPA, working with its state, tribal, and local partners, is responsible for
developing and implementing a portfolio of regulatory and non-regulatory programs to protect
and improve water quality in the nation's watersheds and estuarine, coastal and ocean waters.
As better information is developed for local decision making, changes may be needed in how
EPA and our partners implement water quality programs, including Water Quality Standards,
Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDL), Effluent Guidelines, National Pollutant Discharge
Elimination System (NPDES), nonpoint pollution control programs, and other watershed
management programs.
The potential vulnerabilities of EPA's water quality programs to climate change include:
Higher air and water temperatures will increase pollutant concentrations and lower
dissolved oxygen levels, potentially resulting in additional water bodies not meeting water
quality standards and being listed as impaired.
Higher air and water temperatures combined with nutrient pollution will increase the
incidence of Harmful Algal Blooms, threatening ecosystems and public health.
Climate Change Impacts on Water
Climate change impacts include too little
water in some places, too much water in
other places, and degraded water quality.
Some locations will be subject to all of
these conditions during different times of
the year. Water cycle changes are expected
to continue and will affect water
infrastructure, energy production and use,
human health, transportation, agriculture,
and ecosystems.
Source: USGCRP, "Global Climate Change
Impacts in the U.S."(2009), Water Sector,
at:
http://globalchange.gov/publications/repo
rts/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-bv-
sector/water-resources
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Warmer waters and other ecological shifts will threaten aquatic habitats and aquatic
species, such as cold water fisheries, with the potential for significant impacts on
subsistence fishing tribes.
Increased intensity of rainfall events and storms will cause an increase in the number of
sewer overflows and wastewater bypasses, fouling streams.
Increased intensity of rainfall events and storms will cause increased pollutant loads in
runoff, and the velocity of runoff will scour and erode creek beds.
Areas experiencing periods of less precipitation, drought, lower stream flow and limited
ground water recharge will result in less water flow for dilution of permitted discharges,
alterations of aquatic environments, and increased impairments. Competition will be
exacerbated for limited water supplies for municipal, industrial, energy, agricultural, and
ecological uses.
Areas with increased intensity of drought or that may experience increases in events such
as wildfires may see alterations in the structure and function of wetlands and watersheds.
Sea-level rise combined with coastal development will challenge the ability of coastal
wetlands to migrate.
Ocean acidification resulting from the absorption of C02 will continue to stress coral reefs.
As the nation pursues alternative strategies for producing energy and fuel, both to reduce
greenhouse gases and to increase energy independence, local or regional demand for
limited water supplies for energy and fuel production may increase, placing additional
pressures on water quality programs.
The ecological effects of climate change, such as shifts in aquatic species and their habitats
or the quality of snowpack, are likely to affect the economic and cultural practices of tribal
communities.
Sea level rise and coastal surges increase erosion that can affect coastal zones that support
aquatic species.
Climate change will have a significant impact on water infrastructure. In most of the United
States, we enjoy the benefits of clean and safe water resulting from an extensive network of
drinking water, wastewater and stormwater infrastructure. EPA recognizes that this
infrastructure is aging and is being further taxed by the impacts of climate change. Additionally,
as state, tribal and local governments face more demands for increasingly limited resources,
the ability to respond to these growing infrastructure pressures becomes more complicated.
Climate change will create vulnerabilities in the nation's infrastructure system in the following
ways:
Changes in rainfall patterns beyond the design capacity of drinking water, wastewater and
stormwater infrastructure, or flooding due to increased intensity of storms, could
overwhelm and damage infrastructure.
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Sea-level rise could affect water infrastructure, including drinking water intakes and
wastewater outfalls, and could push saline water into coastal aquifers. Combined with
tropical storms and associated storm surges, the integrity of coastal water infrastructure
systems may be at increased risk.
Drinking water and wastewater utilities need to take an "all hazards" approach to planning
for emergencies and extreme weather events, which may be impacted by climate change. In
order to support the efforts of such utilities, it is important for EPA guidance, tools, and
technical support to also support this all hazards approach.
Vulnerable and economically deprived communities may be particularly at risk, both for
access to clean and safe water as well as for their ability to respond to emergencies during
extreme events.
Climate change will affect the quality and availability of drinking water supplies. More than
290 million people living in the United States rely on the safety of tap water provided by public
water systems that are subject to national drinking water standards. EPA ensures that these
water systems are sustainable and secure by developing and revising water standards, ensuring
compliance with these standards, and protecting sources of drinking water from contamination.
EPA's role in drinking water is solely to protect the quality of what Americans consume. EPA
does not have a direct role in ensuring adequate water supplies. However, changes in water
quantity may affect water quality. The issue of water quantity is a significant issue for many
communities, and will be increasingly so especially in the west and southeast. We can expect
increasing numbers of communities grappling with increased drought, reduced snow pack, and
challenges to water supplies. Such communities will be faced with managing competition
between municipal supplies, energy production, industrial use, agricultural use, and ecological
needs, and it is likely that EPA and our partners will be called on to address water quality issues
in this context.
EPA has identified a number of areas where its programs designed to protect drinking water are
vulnerable to climate change. These vulnerabilities include:
Higher air and water temperatures will promote increased growth of algae and microbes,
which will increase the need for drinking water treatment.
Changes in water temperature can lead to increased risk from invasive species that can
disrupt water and waste water systems.
Increased stormwater runoff will wash sediment and other contaminants into drinking
water sources, requiring additional treatment.
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Sea-level rise could increase the salinity of both surface water and ground water through
saltwater intrusion, encroaching upon coastal drinking water supplies.
Reduced annual precipitation or increased intensity and duration of drought in some
regions will affect water supplies, causing drinking water providers to reassess supply plans
and consider alternative pricing, allocation and water conservation options.
Warming temperatures will cause precipitation in some areas to increasingly fall as rain
rather than snow. Combined with seasonal shifts in springtime snowmelt, areas relying on
snowpack to serve as a water 'reservoir' may need to develop new plans for ensuring water
supplies.
In areas with loss of snowpack or less precipitation, water demand may shift to
underground aquifers or prompt development of underground storage of treated water,
which will require EPA to assure the safety of such underground sources of drinking water.
2.3.3 Goal 3: Cleaning Up Communities and Advancing Sustainable
Development
EPA's highest priorities under this goal are to prevent and reduce exposure to contaminants
and accelerate the pace of cleanups across contaminated sites and properties, including
Brownfields, Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Facilities,
Superfund sites and Leaking Underground Storage Tanks.18
A range of major climate change stressors may affect contaminated sites, which in turn could
affect how EPA addresses contamination and manages cleanups. In order to understand the
potential impacts to these sites, EPA has begun to use broad screening analysis mapping to
identify the sites most likely threatened by climate change impacts. EPA has a general
understanding of the potential vulnerabilities at these sites. Key vulnerabilities identified by
EPA include:
Flooding from more intense and frequent storms and sea-level rise may lead to contaminant
releases from Corrective Action sites, Superfund sites, Brownfield sites and landfills.
Inundation and flooding may lead to transport of contaminants through surface soils, ground
water, surface waters and/or coastal waters. Saltwater intrusion and increased ground water
salinity in coastal aquifers may also increase the permeability of clay liners installed at waste
sites, such as landfills, allowing contaminants to spread to nearby properties. These
contaminant releases may pose an increased risk of adverse health and environmental impacts.
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Changes in precipitation
patterns and temperature
may adversely affect the
performance of the
cleanup remedy and alter
the efficacy of cleanups. To
the extent that climate
change leads to more
prolonged droughts, water-
intensive remedies may be
impacted and the risk of
wildfires spreading to
contaminated sites may
increase. Changes in
precipitation may affect the
rate at which vegetation
grows at various sites and
may affect
phytoremediation and
ecological revitalization
efforts. The impacts may be
positive or negative,
depending on conditions at each site. Ground water processes may also be altered, resulting in
potential adverse impacts on the performance and cost of remediation. To the extent that
temperatures increase with climate change, contaminants at cleanup sites may become more
volatile, increasing risks for local populations. The extent of this effect will depend on the
contaminants at individual sites.
Climate change may also affect the ability of EPA's emergency management workforce to
respond to natural disasters. If contamination occurs because of climate change, OSWER has
significant capabilities to respond and minimize exposure to human populations and
ecosystems. Several of EPA's programs perform these functions, including the Oil Spill Response
Program and Superfund Emergency Response. These programs provide an institutional
framework to use and build upon when responding to climate change impacts. When
responding to emergencies, EPA often coordinates with other Federal agencies, as well as state,
tribal and local organizations. These organizations will be important partners in EPA's work
responding to natural disasters of increased severity and frequency.
Increased Temperatures May Represent a Significant Risk for
Waste Sites in Alaska
n r*. nrftn nl fm
Temperature increases associated with climate change may lead to the
melting of permafrost - which acts as a barrier to the transport of
contaminants - in northern latitudes. With increased temperatures, thawing
could allow contaminants to migrate more freely to adjoining areas.
Source: Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds.,
Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (New York, NY:
Cambridge University Press, 2009),
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-
report.pdf.
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Flooding from more intense and frequent storms and sea-level rise may disrupt existing
waste management networks Flooding from sea level rise or severe storms may disrupt the
transportation system in place to handle waste. For example, flooding may disrupt the pick-up
of waste in neighborhoods and business or the work performed at transfer stations. Cities with
transfer stations along waterways are at particular risk, A major storm event may increase the
amount of solid waste generated and lead to the release of fuel or hazardous materials.
Smaller entities with hazardous materials may lack resources for emergency planning, which
may increase the risk of abandoned hazardous materials during a flooding or storm event.
Changes in precipitation may impact waste management practices such as composting by
affecting biological processes.
2.3.4 Goal 4: Ensuring the Safety of Chemicals and Preventing Pollution
A major component of
EPA's mission is ensuring
the safety of chemicals.
Increasingly, the chemicals
used to make our products,
build our homes, and
support our way of life end
up in the environment and
in our bodies. A changing
climate can affect
exposures to a wide range
of chemicals. Exposures
may change because of
changing environmental
conditions or changing use
patterns. EPA's efforts to
reduce exposures may be affected.
EPA relies heavily on tools and models to help estimate exposures to chemicals when
monitoring data are unavailable. The Agency is in the early stages of examining the ways in
which its models may have to be updated to account for climate change. It has begun with a
review of the potential implications of climate change for its current approaches to evaluating
pesticide exposures to people and the environment. 9 These approaches are currently and will
continue to be used to assess exposures to the general population, as well as children,
agricultural workers and other groups who may be disproportionally affected.
Impact of Climate Change on Pesticide Exposure Models
Many of EPA's tools and
models for examining
exposure to chemicals rely
on inputs that are sensitive
to climate data (e.g.,
changing weather patterns,
temperatures, stream flow
rates, air currents and
precipitation rates). EPA is
in
the early stages of examining the vulnerability of its models to climate
change, beginning with a review of its pesticide exposure models.
Source: U.S. EPA, Memorandum: Transmittal of Meeting Minutes of the
FIFRA Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) held December 7, 2010, on Pesticide
Exposure Modeling and Climate Change, March 3, 2011. SAP minutes, No.
2011-01.
Photo: U.S. EPA
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EPA consulted with the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) Scientific
Advisory Panel (SAP) to provide guidance on its model review and preliminary conclusions, and
on sources of information that may help fill knowledge gaps. The SAP concluded that climate
change is likely to affect future decisions because of
its impact on pest pressure, how and where
pesticides are used, and the quantity of pesticides
used. Since EPA reviews pesticide registrations
every 15 years using assessment methodologies
that are conservative and protective of human
health and the environment, it is expected that the
assessments, and decisions based on them, will
remain protective. However, the SAP also
concluded that weather data used in models that
estimate pesticide exposure are becoming dated,
and thus may not adequately reflect recent change
in climate. Some of EPA's exposure models that
contain climate-related variables may have to be updated as weather patterns, temperatures,
stream flow rates, air currents, precipitation rates, and other climate variables continue to
change.
The Agency has not yet conducted vulnerability assessments of the potential impacts of climate
change on exposures of people and the environment to other types of chemicals. For example,
there may be increased risk of exposure to lead and asbestos as homes, buildings, and other
community infrastructure are damaged by fires, high winds, and flood events. Similarly, climate
change may lead to the development of new chemicals submitted for Agency review that have
uses for water purification and desalinization, wastewater treatment, antimicrobial
disinfection, and disease prevention. EPA will explore the need for future assessments that
evaluate potential impacts like these.
2.3.5 Goal 5: Enforcing Environmental Laws
EPA protects human health and the environment through vigorous and targeted civil and
criminal enforcement and by ensuring compliance with environmental laws. Climate change
may affect decisions related to the enforcement of environmental laws. For example:
The risks posed by climate change may affect decisions by EPA about where resources
should be allocated to ensure compliance with rules or regulations it believes to be
priorities. These enforcement priorities may be derived from a variety of sources, ranging
from the Administrator's identified goals for EPA, to program-specific guidance memoranda
to assist enforcement personnel in selecting appropriate enforcement mechanisms
depending on site-specific circumstances.
Climate Change and FIFRA
An increase in the frequency of emergency
pest problems could lead to an increase in
the need for emergency exemptions under
the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and
Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) if currently
registered pesticides are ineffective. This
would allow for the use of chemicals which
are not registered.
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A flood, hurricane or wildfire can swiftly divert the Agency's focus.20 If climate change leads
to more intense weather events and increases EPA's involvement in disaster response and
remediation, then enforcement efforts (as well as efforts in other EPA programs) could be
affected due to a scarcity of available staff and resources.
2.3.6 EPA's Facilities and Operations
EPA must ensure the security of its personnel, the safe and continued operation of its buildings
and other critical assets (e.g., vehicles), and the integrity of its grants and procurement systems.
In the event of
any
catastrophic
weather event,
EPA's people,
buildings and
operations
could be
affected. Based
on the potential
for climate
change to alter
water supplies
and increase
the frequency
and severity of
extreme
weather events,
EPA has
identified the following vulnerabilities to the Agency's continued safe and efficient operations:
Increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events may affect Agency facilities,
personnel safety, physical security and emergency communications. Some extreme weather
events are expected to become more commonplace as the climate changes, increasing the
occurrence of flooding, heat waves, lightning and high winds. An increase in these events would
increase the risk to EPA's personnel in the field and EPA facilities. EPA has begun to assess these
vulnerabilities and has identified the following areas of potential impact:
Severe weather and flooding could cause damage to EPA facilities, especially in coastal
areas. The Agency has already seen such damage to its Gulf Ecology Division Laboratory in
EPA's Gulf Ecology Division Laboratory
When Hurricane Ivan tore through Florida's Gulf Coast in September 2004, it served as a
powerful reminder to EPA's Gulf Ecology Division Laboratory facilities that intelligent
St
facility design in the 21 century requires the highest standards for safety and durability,
as well as sustainability. Located on Sabine Island, a 16-acre patch of land off the coast of
the Florida Panhandle, the laboratory campus was especially vulnerable to the
hurricane's devastating winds and rain. In the wake of the storm, six of the 40 buildings
at the campus were destroyed and had to be temporarily replaced with modular
structures.
In 2008, these buildings were permanently replaced with a new Computational and
Geospatial Sciences Building. This facility was designed to meet the Florida Building
Code, which requires stringent hurricane mitigation techniques. It has also earned the
U.S. Green Building Council's Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED )
Silver 2.2 certification for New Construction. This building meets the demands of its
environment in a sustainable manner.
(Source: "Sustainable Facilities at EPA: Computational and Geospatial Science Building, Gulf
Breeze, Florida," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-200-F-09-002, Washington,
DC, 2009.)
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Florida. Sea Level rise could also impact low lying coastal facilities and their access roads,
especially when coupled with storm surges and flooding.
Extreme weather events, including severe winds and lightning could cause damage to EPA's
long-term environmental monitoring assets, particularly in coastal and flood prone areas.
The Agency has already seen such damage to equipment at sites in the Clean Air Status and
Trends Network and the National Atmospheric Deposition Program.
Seasonal temperature changes and changing weather patterns can affect air quality and the
general comfort of outdoor activities. Extreme heat, bad air quality or other weather
conditions exacerbated by climate change may increase the health risks of EPA employees
and contractors engaged in field work, such as sampling, remediation and inspections.
Severe winds, lightning and other extreme weather events could cause power outages that
disrupt EPA's security systems, outdoor lighting and emergency communication systems.
Some of these systems are not linked to an uninterruptible power supply or backup
generators. Outdoor lighting and security cameras are also vulnerable to direct impacts
from high winds and other severe weather.
An increase in the number of extreme weather events could affect planning and management
of emergency operations. During and after extreme weather events, EPA employees and
contractors are dispatched to assess impacts to the environment and human health. The
Agency also awards acquisitions and grants to support stakeholder emergency response. An
increase in extreme weather events could result in the following impacts:
An increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events may affect the availability of the
Agency's personnel and resources to support the dispatch of emergency management
personnel to assess environmental damage and test sites for air quality, water quality and
other human health and environmental threats. At the same time, EPA personnel would
increasingly be drawn away from their normal day-to-day activities to respond to extreme
weather events or emergencies.
Changing weather patterns and weather events may increase the demand for protective
gear and appropriate vehicles and vessels to meet the demands of extreme working
conditions during research, field work, and emergency management.
EPA continues to award and manage acquisitions and grants during severe weather events;
both those that are required for ongoing needs and those required for emergencies. An
increase in such events could affect EPA's ability to assess contractor readiness and
capabilities, process and award contracts, provide financial assistance, enter into
interagency agreements and train essential personnel.
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Changing water supplies may compromise the quality of water used at EPA facilities. Shifts in
snowpack in some regions of the country could mean a change in the disposition of water
supplies and potentially compromise the quality of water available to the Agency. EPA
laboratories require water to conduct experiments and meet building cooling requirements.
Water shortages and quality issues could have significant impacts on the Agency's ability to
manage its facilities and conduct important research, particularly in drought-prone regions.
2.4 Climate Change Impacts on the Most Vulnerable Communities
Climate change will have a disproportionate effect on particular geographic locations,
communities, and demographic groups.
The impacts of climate change raise environmental justice issues. Environmental justice
focuses on the health of and environmental conditions affecting minority, low-income, and
indigenous populations. EPA places emphasis on these populations because they have
historically been exposed to a combination of physical, chemical, biological, social, and cultural
factors that have imposed greater environmental burdens on them than those imposed on the
general population. Climate change is likely to exacerbate existing and introduce new
environmental burdens and associated health impacts in communities dealing with
environmental justice challenges across the nation.21 EPA's Policy Statement on Climate Change
Adaptation calls on the Agency to focus on incorporating consideration of environmental justice
into the design and evaluation of adaptation strategies.
The populations most vulnerable to climate change often include, but are not limited to, the
communities that are the focus of EPA's environmental justice program. Children, the elderly,
the poor, the infirm, and tribal and indigenous populations are among the most vulnerable.22
For example, children living and playing outdoors in regions with higher ozone levels resulting
from increased temperature will be at higher risk for experiencing asthma symptoms and
exacerbations. The elderly are more vulnerable to heat stress because they are often in poorer
health, have debilitating chronic diseases and are less able to regulate their body temperature
during periods of extreme heat. They may also be taking medications that increase risk for
dehydration and may live alone or have fewer social contacts, which may further exacerbate
their vulnerabilities.23 Economic constraints can also place low-income households at
disproportionate risk to extreme heat events due to lack of air conditioning or failure to use air-
conditioning to cut down on associated energy costs.24
EPA has a special obligation to work consultatively with the tribes to help them as sovereign
governments address their climate adaptation concerns. EPA's 1984 Policy for the
Administration of Environmental Programs on Indian Reservations directs the Agency to work
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"in a manner consistent with the overall Federal position in support of Tribal 'self-government'
and 'government-to-government' relations between Federal and Tribal Governments."
EPA is committed to integrating environmental justice and climate adaptation into its programs,
policies, rules and operations in such a way that to the extent possible, it effectively protects all
demographic groups, geographic locations and communities, and natural resources that are
most vulnerable to climate change. The Agency will place special emphasis on overburdened
populations that are least able to help themselves, and work in partnership with them to
empower them to effectively adapt to climate change.
Coastal Climate Change Impacts on Low-Income Minority Communities
Climate change will affect certain groups of people more than others, depending on where they live
and their ability to cope with different climate hazards. For example, a combination of sea level rise
and land subsidence in coastal Louisiana has increased the area's vulnerability to storm surge and
hurricane damage.1'2 Hurricane Katrina, though not necessarily directly a result of climate change,
provides an illustrative example of how storm surges can result in catastrophic effects for coastal
communities and how social vulnerabilities can manifest in the form of unequal access to resources
and of vulnerabilities. Barriers for the community to respond to Katrina included the lack of material
resources, such as cash and access to transportation, for evacuation purposes.3'4'5 These factors
contributed to disproportionate impacts on minority and low-income communities in New Orleans.
For example, African Americans were overrepresented in mortality rates in all age categories
compared to their proportion of the pre-Katrina population.6 The impacts of Hurricane Katrina were
devastating and highlight the environmental as well as social vulnerabilities of coastline communities.
1. Sources:USGCRP (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States . Karl, T.R., J.M.
Melillo, and T.C. Peterson (eds.). United States Global Change Research Program. Cambridge
University Press, New York, NY, USA.
2. CCSP (2008). Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and
Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and
the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Savonis, M. J., V.R. Burkett, and J.R. Potter (eds.).
Department of Transportation, Washington, DC, USA, 445 pp.
3. Elliott, James R. and Jeremy Pais. 2006. "Race, class, and Hurricane Katrina: Social Differences in
Human Responses to Disaster," Social Science Research, 35: 295-321.
4. Fothergill, A., and L Peek. 2004. "Poverty and disasters in the United States: A review of recent
sociological findings." Natural Hazards Journal 32(1): 89-110.
5. Berube, A., and B. Katz. 2005 "Katrina's Window: Confronting Concentrated Poverty Across
America." The Brookings Institution Special Analysis in Metropolitan Policy.
6. Sharkey, P. 2007. Survival and Death in New Orleans: An Empirical Look at the Human Impact of
Katrina. Journal of Black Studies, 37: 482-501.
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Climate Change Impacts on Tribal Communities
Indigenous people are among the most vulnerable communities in North America.1 Tribes are more vulnerable
to climate change impacts because of their dependence upon a specific geographic area for their livelihoods,
the degree to which those geographic areas embody climate-sensitive environments, and their unique cultural,
economic, or political characteristics and contexts. Also, tribes generally have fewer resources to prepare for,
respond to, and recover from natural hazards, including those related to climate change.2 The disproportionate
vulnerability of tribes to climate change affects EPA's mission to protect human health and the environment in
Indian country.
Examples of the impacts climate change is already having on tribes include:
The coastal Inupiat village of Shismaref Alaska is one of many coastal villages in Alaska facing relocation
due to threats from flooding and erosion related to a rise in sea level and a decrease in sea ice. Sea walls
have been broken and homes washed away. Residents have decided to relocate farther inland for safety,
giving up their traditional fishing, sealing, and home-building sites.3
Drought is perhaps the most pervasive climate-induced weather impact on tribes. Water is at the heart of
many tribal cultures and the foundation of their livelihoods, economies, subsistence, and treaty rights.
Water is essential to the sustainability of the fish, wildlife, and plants on which tribes rely. The recent trend
toward more severe and frequent droughts, especially in the American Southwest, threatens the very
underpinnings of tribal communities. The Southwest is already in the midst of a 10-15 year drought, and
climate projections suggest the Southwest may transition to a more arid climate on a permanent basis over
the next century and beyond.4 In fact, climate observations indicate that this transition may have already
begun.5
Moose, a species important to many tribes in the Great Lakes region, are suffering the impacts of warmer
weather. In a recent study of moose at the southern edge of their range in northwest Minnesota,
researchers found that over the past 40 years, declines in the moose population are related to increases in
mean temperature with winter and summer temperatures increasing by an average of 12°F and 4°F,
respectively, over this period. Lack of food resources and increased exposure to deer parasites associated
with warmer summer temperatures appear to be the primary causes of more decline.6
Sources:
1. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds). Contribution of Working Group II to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. "Climate Change 2007: Working Group II:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability." Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
2007.
2. Cutter, S.L. and C. Finch. 2008. "Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards." Proceedings of the
National Academy of Science 105(7): 2301-2306.
3. National Research Council, Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, America's Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the
Impacts of Climate Change, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2010.
4. Solomon, S., G-K Plattner, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein, 2009. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(6): 1,704-1,709. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0812721106; Johanson, C.M., and Q.
Fu, 2009: Hadley Cell Widening: Model Simulations versus Observations. Journal of Climate, 22:2,713-2,725.
5. Seager, R., et al., 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America.
Science, 316:1,181-1,184.
6. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Rising to the Urgent Challenge: Strategic Plan for Responding to Accelerating Climate Change
http://www.fws.gov/home/climatechange/pdf/CCStrategicPlan.pdf
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2.5 Summary of Key Areas of Known Vulnerability
The current list of known vulnerabilities of EPA's programs to climate change are summarized in
the table at the end of this report. The vulnerabilities listed in the table help to guide the
Agency in identifying areas to focus its adaptation planning efforts. For several of the
vulnerabilities, current scientific understanding is that the climate impact is likely or very likely
to occur and EPA's best judgment is that there is a high likelihood the program will be affected.
The Agency, as part of its efforts to mainstream adaptation into its programs (addressed in Part
3 of this document), will conduct a more comprehensive vulnerability assessment to determine
which programs and areas are most suitable to initiate action.
This qualitative assessment has been done at a national level. It identifies vulnerabilities to
entire programs within EPA to help focus the Agency's climate adaptation efforts. However,
there is a "regional texture" to the impacts of climate change. The severity and importance of
known vulnerabilities will vary across regions. The forthcoming Implementation Plans that will
be produced by every EPA Regional Office will capture the regional differences and identify the
vulnerabilities of greatest importance, including identifying the most vulnerable people and
places within these programs. They will then describe how climate change adaptation will be
integrated into their planning and work in a manner consistent and compatible with their own
circumstances and objectives.
Endnotes
1 Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United
States (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2009),
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf.
2 Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United
States (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2009),
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf.
3 Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United
States (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2009),
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf.
4 Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Parry, M.L, Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der
Linden, P. J., et. al., contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change 2007, "Summary for Policy Makers" (2007), 11-12.
5 Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United
States (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2009), 89-106,
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf.
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6 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Policy Statement on Climate-Change Adaptation, June 2, 2011,
http://epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/impacts-adaptation/adaptation-statement.pdf.
7 While the discussion of vulnerabilities is organized by goal, some of the impacts of climate change are expected
to cut across goals. For example, climate change may increase the number of weather-related emergencies to
which the Agency is called to respond, potentially drawing staff from multiple locations and program areas. Staff
participating in emergency response work would be unavailable to complete their normal program responsibilities.
Climate change is also expected to affect many of the models that EPA programs and the states use to make
environmental decisions.
8 Denman, K.L, et al. (2007). Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. In: Climate
Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
9 U.S. EPA (2009). Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change on Regional U.S. Air Quality: A Synthesis of Climate
Change Impacts on Ground-Level Ozone. An Interim Report of the U.S. EPA Global Change Research Program. U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-07/094F.
10 Katsouyanni, K., et al.; HEI Health Review Committee (2009). Air pollution and health: a European and North
American approach (APHENA). Research Report Health Effects Institute. 2009 Oct;(142):5-90.
11
U.S. EPA. Air Quality Criteria for Ozone and Related Photochemical Oxidants (2006 Final). U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-05/004aF-cF, 2006.
12 Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, "Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on
the United States" (Committee on Environment and Natural Resources of the National Science and Technology
Council, U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2008), http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-
assessment/Scientific-AssessmentFINAL.pdf.
13 C.B. Field et al., "North America," Chapter 14 in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, ed. M.L Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
14 Institute of Medicine, Climate Change, the Indoor Environment, and Health (Washington, DC: The National
Academies Press, 2011).
15 World Meteorological Organization, Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and
Monitoring ProjectReport No. 52 (Geneva, Switzerland, 2011).
16 Burns, D.A., Lynch, J.A., Cosby, B.J., Fenn, M.E., Baron, J.S., US EPA Clean Air Markets Div., 2011,National Acid
Precipitation Assessment Program Report to Congress 2011: An Integrated Assessment, National Science and
Technology Council, Washington, DC, 114 p.
17 "Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S."(2009), Water Sector, at:
http://globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-bv-
sector/water-resources.
18 There may be additional sites not included in this list that occur as a result of emergency response activities or
unanticipated events.
19 Conclusions from EPA consultations with the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) Scientific
Advisory Panel (SAP), a panel of external experts established under FIFRA to provide the Agency with advice on
pesticide-related science matters.
20 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "FY 2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan, Achieving our Vision" (2011), 43,
http://epa.gov/planandbudget/strategicplan.html.
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21 Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United
States (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2009), 89-106,
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf.
22 Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United
States (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2009), 89-106,
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf.
23 G. Luber et al., "Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events," Am J Prev Med 35(5), August 2008.
24 Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United
States (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2009), 89-106,
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf.
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Part 3: Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in EPA
3.1 Building Adaptive Capacity
EPA's Policy Statement on Climate-Change Adaptation acknowledges the importance of
adapting to climate change if the Agency is to continue fulfilling its statutory, regulatory and
programmatic requirements. It is vital that the EPA anticipate and plan for future changes in
climate and incorporate considerations of climate change into many of its programs, policies,
rules and operations to ensure they remain effective under
future climatic conditions.1
Climate change is one of many factors that can influence the
effectiveness of EPA's activities over time. It is essential the
Agency account for climate change as it designs its programs,
policies and rules, in the same way other factors such as population growth and economic
development are regularly considered. EPA will integrate, or mainstream, climate change
adaptation by strengthening the adaptive capacity of its own staff. EPA will empower them to
account for climate change in the normal course of doing business. It will increase staff's
awareness of ways that climate change may affect their ability to implement effective
programs, and provide them with the necessary data, information and tools to integrate
climate adaptation into the work they do.
EPA will work to strengthen partners' adaptive capacities. The Agency will work with its state,
tribal and local partners and will strive to ensure that to the greatest extent possible, their
human health and environmental protection programs become resilient as the climate changes.
This is particularly important since the Agency authorizes many states and tribes to implement
various environmental programs. Also, EPA's efforts to help communities become more
environmentally and economically sustainable could be affected by climate change. EPA will
need to ensure that its tools, research, and technical assistance evolve to help communities and
other entities take projected climate changes into account as they plan development.
International partnerships and collaboration on adaptation will also be important to address
the transboundary impacts of climate change.
The Agency's investment in building adaptive capacity is an ongoing effort. It will require a
sustained, long-term commitment to empower EPA's workforce and partners by providing the
information and tools necessary to account for climate change.
EPA will continue to protect human
health and the environment, but in a
way that accounts for the effects of
climate change.
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3.2 Guiding Principles for Adaptation at EPA
EPA has adopted a set of principles to guide all of its efforts to integrate climate adaptation into
its programs, policies and rules. The principles affirm EPA's approach of integrating climate
adaptation into existing programs and activities to ensure their effectiveness as the climate
changes. They uphold EPA's core values of using the best available science, protecting
populations and locations most vulnerable to climate change, and using sensible analytic
methods and approaches for developing and implementing adaptation strategies. EPA has an
important and unique role in climate adaptation, but is only one partner in a broader effort that
must include multiple levels of government, as well as private, nongovernmental, and
international partners. The principles call for ongoing evaluation of the effectiveness of climate
change adaptation approaches, recognizing that the Agency will continue to learn how to adapt
effectively over time.
Guiding Principles for Adaptation
Adopt integrated approaches: Adaptation should be incorporated into core policies, planning, practices and
programs whenever possible.
Prioritize the most vulnerable: Adaptation plans should prioritize helping people, places and infrastructure
that are most vulnerable to climate impacts and be designed and implemented with meaningful involvement
from all parts of society.
Use best-available science: Adaptation should be grounded in the best-available scientific understanding of
climate change risks, impacts and vulnerabilities.
Build strong partnerships: Adaptation requires coordination across multiple sectors and scales and should
build on the existing efforts and knowledge of a wide range of public and private stakeholders.
Apply risk-management methods and tools: Adaptation planning should incorporate risk-management
methods and tools to help identify, assess and prioritize options to reduce vulnerability to potential
environmental, social and economic implications of climate change.
Apply ecosystem-based approaches: Adaptation should, where relevant, take into account strategies to
increase ecosystem resilience and protect critical ecosystem services on which humans depend to reduce
vulnerability of human and natural systems to climate change.
Maximize mutual benefits: Adaptation should, where possible, use strategies that complement or directly
support other related climate or environmental initiatives, such as efforts to improve disaster preparedness,
promote sustainable resource management, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions including the
development of cost-effective technologies.
Continuously evaluate performance: Adaptation plans should include measureable goals and performance
metrics to continuously assess whether adaptive actions are achieving desired outcomes.
(Source: The White House Council on Environmental Quality, "Progress Report of the Interagency Climate Change
Adaptation Task Force: Recommended Actions in Support of a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy,"
October 5, 2010, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ceq/lnteragency-Climate-Change-
Adaptation-Progress-Report.pdf.)
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3.3 Agency-wide Priorities
EPA has identified priority actions it will take to begin integrating climate change adaptation
into its programs, policies, rules and operations. These priorities represent EPA's commitment
to address the known vulnerabilities of its mission to climate change, and to continue to
identify other vulnerabilities its programs may have to climate change.
Agency-wide Priorities
Fulfill Strategic Measures in FY2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan
Protect Agency facilities and operations
Factor legal considerations into adaptation efforts
Strengthen adaptive capacity of EPA staff and partners through training
Develop decision-support tools that enable EPA staff and partners to integrate
climate adaptation planning into their work
Identify cross-EPA science needs related to climate adaptation
Partner with tribes to increase adaptive capacity
Focus on most vulnerable people and places
Measure and evaluate performance
Develop Program and Regional Office Implementation Plans
3.3.1 Priority: Fulfill Strategic Measures in FY2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan
EPA expects that its understanding of how to integrate climate adaptation into its programs,
policies, rules and operations will improve over time. The FY 2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan
identified three initial mechanisms through which the Agency will begin mainstreaming climate
adaptation by 2015:2
Strategic Measures in FY2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan
Bv 2015:
1. Integrate climate change adaptation into rulemaking processes.
2. Integrate climate adaptation into financial mechanisms.
3. Develop decision-support tools.
1. Integration of climate change adaptation into rulemaking processes: EPA will integrate
climate change trend and scenario information into five rulemaking processes to further
EPA's mission, consistent with existing authorities. The integration of climate adaptation
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into Agency rulemaking processes will help ensure the rules are effective as the climate
changes.3 A variety of "entry points" can be considered, including the development of the
rule itself; related policy and guidance development; and post-rule permitting, monitoring
and enforcement.
EPA will enhance the ability of rule makers to address the implications of climate change
through updates to the Action Development Process (ADP). This process was developed by
EPA to guide the Agency's rulemaking activities from the start of the rulemaking process
through the analysis of regulatory options to the final publication of a regulation. EPA will
integrate climate adaptation into the ADP by:
¦ Identifying process points where climate change adaptation considerations need to be
identified, analyzed and discussed. The rulemaking process4 includes opportunities to
discuss climate change adaptation considerations, both internally and with
stakeholders. An Analytic Blueprint spells out a workgroup's plan for data collection and
analyses to support development of a specific action. The development of an Analytic
Blueprint provides an early opportunity to articulate any climate change adaptation
issues that need analysis.
¦ Developing guidance
documents and training
rule writers to
understand the
implications of climate
change impacts. EPA has
guidance on addressing
children's health and
environmental justice
for all of its rulemakings.
EPA will develop a
similar guide for climate
change adaptation, and
provide training. This
will improve the
regulatory work groups'
understanding of
climate change adaptation and how to consider it in rulemaking, when appropriate.
¦ Tracking and monitoring rulemakings where climate change adaptation may be an
important consideration. To help identify rulemakings where climate change adaptation
may be relevant, EPA will use its internal regulatory tracking databases to manage and
Progress is already being made to fulfill the Strategic Measures
EPA is already making progress to fulfill the three Strategic Measures. For
example, the Agency issued guidance in October 2011 encouraging all Offices
to include climate adaptation evaluation criteria into announcements of
competitive funding opportunities. The guidance is relevant to
announcements in which the outcomes to be supported by the awards are
sensitive to changes in climate [e.g., ability to attain air quality standards;
effectiveness of water infrastructure), orthe projects being solicited would be
more effective if they addressed climate change adaptation issues [e.g.,
development of models and tools to support decision making).
EPA is also already developing tools to support climate adaptation planning.
For example, the BASINS tool that is designed for use by regional, state, and
local agencies in performing watershed and water quality-based studies now
includes a Climate Assessment Tool (CAT). CAT provides a capability for
understanding how water resources could be affected by a range of potential
changes in climate, and the possible effectiveness of management practices
for increasing resilience of water resources to climate change.
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report on regulatory development. This will allow EPA workgroups and stakeholders to
plan and allow for integration of climate change considerations when identified in the
critical process points described above.
2. Integration of Climate Change into financial assistance mechanisms: EPA will integrate
considerations of climate change impacts and adaptive measures into five major grant, loan,
contract or technical assistance programs. This will further EPA's mission, consistent with
existing authorities. The integration of "climate adaptation criteria" into financial
mechanisms will encourage recipients to account for climate change.
Although this Strategic Measure is limited to a goal of five major financial assistance
mechanisms by 2015, the ultimate goal is to integrate climate adaptation into all financial
assistance agreements, where appropriate.
3. Development and use of decision-support tools: EPA will integrate climate change trend
and scenario information into five major scientific models or decision-support tools used to
implement Agency environmental management programs. The development of decision-
support tools will help build the adaptive capacity of the Agency's workforce and its
partners.
These three mechanisms represent different pathways through which the Agency can integrate
climate change into ongoing programs and priorities, to attain desired environmental and
human health outcomes and sustain them as the climate changes. EPA will continue to explore
more pathways through which the resilience of the Agency's mission can be enhanced.
3.3.2 Priority: Protect Agency facilities and operations
EPA is committed to the safety of its personnel, the integrity of its buildings, and the efficiency
of its operations, but the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events poses
risks to meeting these objectives. Climate change could disrupt the operation of the Agency's
programs, compromise the safety of its staff, or affect the integrity of its physical infrastructure.
Adaptation planning to protect EPA's workforce, operations and underlying infrastructure is
crucial.
EPA will develop and implement measures to protect its workforce and increase the resilience
of its facilities and operations to climate change. For example, where possible, EPA will
enhance the resilience of existing facilities in coastal areas to protect them from severe
weather, flood damage, and sea level rise. The Agency will also work with other government
agencies, particularly the General Services Administration, to account for climate change in the
design and construction of new facilities, or when new buildings are leased.
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3.3.3 Priority: Factor legal considerations into adaptation efforts
In appropriate circumstances, EPA should account for climate change in its programs, policies,
rules, and operations, to maintain their effectiveness under conditions of environmental
change and uncertainty. As a general matter, the Agency's broad mandates to protect human
health and the environment afford a large reservoir of legal authority to support adaptation
work. However, specific legal questions that may arise in the course of adaptation
programming cannot be answered in the abstract.
As a federal agency, EPA derives its authority to act from the U.S. Constitution and the laws
passed by Congress. The Agency is committed to ensuring that its actions are constitutional,
authorized by statute, consistent with Congress's vision and intent, and otherwise legally
supported. The 2011 EPA Policy Statement on Climate-Change Adaptation called on the Agency
to "identify for the Office of General Counsel areas where legal analysis is needed to carry out
agency actions called for in this policy statement." Because the legality of its actions is such a
high priority for EPA, program managers and staff are encouraged to freely and frequently
consult with the appropriate attorneys in the Office of General Counsel (OGC), Offices of
Regional Counsel (ORC), and the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance (OECA) as
they conduct their adaptation work.
Important variation exists among the statutes EPA administers, as well as the regulatory
programs EPA designs, implements, and enforces under those laws. Some of these laws, like
the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act, give EPA regulatory powers, such as the authority to
write regulations, set standards, issue permits, ensure compliance, and authorize state and
tribal environmental programs. Other laws govern EPA actions in a variety of areas essential to
its mission, such as research and development, budget and personnel management, contracts,
and the award of financial assistance. Still other laws impose obligations on EPA, such as
responsibilities to evaluate the effect of its activities on state and local governments,
overburdened communities, small businesses, and endangered species, among others.
Each of these laws, whether granting EPA authority or imposing an obligation, may deserve
special attention and analysis in resolving legal questions related to adaptation work. For
example, EPA may need to determine the extent of its authority to incorporate adaptation
measures into the terms and conditions of financial assistance mechanisms; evaluate the legal
basis for considering climate change impacts in setting standards or issuing permits under the
Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act; or review the adequacy of its emergency response
authorities in the context of more frequent natural disasters. These examples are merely
illustrative of the diversity of ways in which legal issues may arise for EPA as it mainstreams
climate adaptation.
Important variation also exists in the level of scientific understanding of climate change impacts
and the sensitivity of EPA programs to those impacts. These variations inform the analysis of
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EPA's legal authority and responsibilities. For instance, under the Administrative Procedure
Act, federal agencies like EPA have a basic obligation to act transparently and rationally. This is
generally demonstrated through an administrative record that documents the analysis and
reasoning leading to a final decision and responds appropriately to concerns raised by
interested parties and the public, using the information available to the Agency at the time of
its decision. The relative weight climate change considerations should be given in evaluating
options for EPA action may depend on factors such as the time and geographic scale of the
potentially relevant climate impacts compared to the temporal and spatial scale of the
proposed EPA action; the strength of the scientific understanding of the climate impacts; and
the environmental and economic consequences estimated to result from including or choosing
not to include climate change adaptation measures or considerations in the EPA action.
Considerations such as these are by definition case specific. Over time, however, EPA
anticipates that more detailed policy principles and legal precedents will emerge to further
guide and inform EPA's adaptation efforts.
3.3.4 Priority: Strengthen adaptive capacity of EPA staff and partners through
training
An organization with adaptive capacity has the ability to craft and adopt new means to achieve
its goals as circumstances change. EPA needs its personnel and partners in states, tribes, and
local communities to have adaptive capacity if it is to achieve its mission in the midst of climate
change. EPA will build adaptive capacity through ongoing education and training. Equipped
with an understanding of expected climate-related changes and adaptation approaches, and
provided with and trained on how to use new decision-support tools, EPA and its partners will
be able to incorporate climate change adaptation into their plans and decisions.
EPA's training, education and outreach programs that are focused on climate adaptation will
evolve over time. As an initial step, EPA will design and implement a training program for its
staff and its partners focused on topics relevant to EPA's mission. One goal is to increase
awareness about the importance of climate change adaptation, and to encourage all EPA staff
and partners to consider the changing climate in the normal course of business. A second goal
of EPA's training will be to expose its staff and partners to specific approaches and tools for
integrating climate adaptation into decision-making processes.
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3.3.5 Priority: Develop decision-support tools that enable EPA staff and
partners to integrate climate adaptation planning into their work
The fact that the climate is no longer relatively stable, but will continue to change in new ways,
presents a major challenge for decision
makers working to protect human health
and the environment. Many standard
practices may no longer be effective
unless they account for climate change.
For example, standard methods used for
estimating the probability and expected
frequency of floods for flood plain
mapping, designing infrastructure systems, and estimating runoff of pollutants and sediments
into rivers and streams are based on the assumption of climate stationarity.5 The end of climate
stationarity means that EPA and its partners need to alter their standard practices and decision
routines to account for a continuously changing climate.
The development of decision-support tools plays a central role in EPA's overall efforts to adapt
to climate change. Following the recommendations of the National Research Council, EPA is
committed to developing decision-support tools to improve the quality and efficacy of decisions
related to outcomes that are sensitive to changes in climate.6 These tools will empower staff to
consider climate, as well as changes in social and economic conditions that are influenced by
climate change. They will
enable staff to integrate climate
adaptation planning into their
work and decision-making
processes. Priority will be given
to the development of tools that
would benefit end-users in
multiple areas of EPA.
EPA will also support capacity-
building for state, tribal, local,
and international partners by
working with them to develop
and use effective decision-support tools. EPA will coordinate with other Federal agencies on
developing decision-support tools with partners, when appropriate.
The assumption of stationarity
Until now, EPA (for those programs not explicitly focused
on climate change) has been able to assume stationarity
of climate; that is, climate is relatively stable and future
climate will mirror past climate. But the past is no longer
a good predictor of the future.
Decision Support Tools
"The effectiveness of any decision support tool depends on whether it
provides information that is relevant to decision makers. Tools need
to be useful at space and time scales that are meaningful and
relevant for specific decisions and decision makers, and they also
need to be based on up-to-date and reliable information"
(Source: National Research Council, Informing an Effective Response
to Climate Change, America's Climate Choices: Panel on Informing
Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change, The
National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2010.)
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3.3.6 Priority: Identify cross-EPA science needs related to climate adaptation
Implementing effective strategies to adapt to the changing climate requires that decisions be
grounded in the best available science on climate change risks, impacts and vulnerabilities, and
adaptive management practices. Throughout EPA, there is a growing need for up-to-date
information on the existing models, tools, data and information relevant to climate change
adaptation.
EPA has made great progress in climate-related research and with the development of models
and tools. However, the complex interactions of climate change impacts mean that
uncertainties and data gaps persist and that multiple Agency stakeholders have a role to play in
developing a research agenda. In order to identify the most pressing science needs for
improved adaptation decision making, priority research needs related to climate change
adaptation will be identified and periodically updated for the entire Agency through a
coordinated approach. This approach is designed to produce research results that benefit end-
users in multiple areas of EPA.
EPA will advance a rigorous basic and applied science program that will inform, enable and
deliver innovative and sustainable solutions to environmental problems in a changing climate.
The EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) has the primary responsibility of
coordinating with the Program and Regional Offices to identify the priority science needs of the
Agency and its partners. This coordination is essential since some of the priority science needs
will be met by ORD's research program, and some by scientists in Program and Regional Offices.
In cases where other agencies could produce the scientific information needed, ORD will play a
major role representing EPA's needs to other federal agencies. For example, ORD is EPA's
primary representative to the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which
coordinates and integrates climate change research across 13 federal departments and
agencies.
Available data, tools, and information will be shared across the Agency and with its partners to
avoid redundancy given the Agency's limited resources. To facilitate the ongoing sharing of
information, EPA will establish a central repository of data (and associated metadata), models,
tools and information related to climate adaptation that are produced by the Agency. The
repository will also include information ("lessons learned") about methods for mainstreaming
climate adaptation that have been used by particular EPA Offices that may be applicable to
other users across the Agency. Where relevant to the adaptation efforts of EPA and its partners,
the repository will be linked to other databases and repositories of information within EPA, as
well as those produced by other federal agencies and non-federal entities.
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3.3.7 Priority: Partner with tribes to increase adaptive capacity
EPA is committed to strengthening its partnerships with tribes on their priorities related to
climate change adaptation. A unique government-to-government relationship exists between
the U.S. Government and the 565 federally recognized tribes. EPA gives special consideration to
tribes in developing policies that may affect their interests. EPA recognizes that tribes will likely
be disproportionately vulnerable to climate change. This disproportionate vulnerability is partly
due to their dependence on specific geographic areas for their livelihood; unique cultural,
economic and political characteristics; and limited resources to prepare for, respond to and
recover from climate-related hazards (i.e., limited adaptive
capacity).7
Each Program and Regional Office Implementation Plan will
support the development of adaptive capacity in the tribes
and identify clear steps for ongoing collaboration with
tribal governments where appropriate. These efforts will include increasing tribal capacity to
identify vulnerabilities in order to adapt to a changing climate. EPA will work with tribes to
support the effectiveness of national climate change adaptation programs in Indian country.
The Agency will support the development of climate science to meet priority research needs
and decision-support tools useful to the tribes. EPA will also work with the tribes to identify and
support the use of climate change relevant traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in decision
making. EPA recognizes that TEK, as an expression of key information that links historical,
cultural and local ecological conditions, may help tribes choose how they adapt to climate
change while also protecting resources and resource uses important to their culture and
livelihood. These efforts will leverage existing EPA partnerships with the tribes and tribal
networks.
On a national level, EPA will work with other Federal agencies to collectively support tribes as
they assess their vulnerabilities to climate change and plan and implement adaptation actions.
Regional Offices will seek opportunities to work together with other Federal agencies' regional
offices to provide strong support to tribes on their particular climate change challenges.
3.3.8: Priority: Focus on most vulnerable people and places
The Agency places special emphasis on, and works in partnership with, overburdened
populations. As discussed in Part 2 of this report, certain parts of the population, such as
children, the elderly, the poor, Tribes and indigenous people can be especially vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change. This may be due to susceptibility to health impacts of
environmental contaminants, economic status, health status, education or access to
EPA is committed to an ongoing
partnership with tribes to build their
adaptive capacity and address their
adaptation-related priorities.
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information. Also, certain communities will be particularly vulnerable, such as those that are in
low-lying coastal areas or subsistence fishing tribal communities. EPA's efforts to anticipate and
adapt to the effects of climate change on its core mission, therefore, will include helping the
most vulnerable people and places reduce their exposure to climate change and improving
their capacity to predict, prepare for and avoid adverse impacts. For example, Program and
Regional implementation plans will include a focus on understanding the environmental-justice
implications of climate change impacts, identifying populations and communities vulnerable to
climate change and with limited ability to adapt, and incorporating consideration of
environmental justice issues into the design and evaluation of adaptation strategies.
The Agency will make special efforts to connect with populations that have been historically
underrepresented in decision-making in order to support the development of adaptation plans
that are culturally sensitive and that improve their capacity to predict, prepare for, and avoid
climate change impacts. The Agency will also continue to focus on life stages vulnerable to
climate change.8 The development of effective adaptation plans and strategies will also be
improved by examining the interaction of multiple stressors, including climate change, on
communities and populations.
3.3.9 Priority: Measure and Evaluate Performance
Evaluation is a systematic way to learn from experiences. In its Strategic Plan, EPA emphasizes
the importance of evaluating activities and acting on the lessons learned. Through systematic
evaluation, the Agency can identify where activities have the greatest impact on protecting
human health and the environment; provide the roadmap needed to replicate successes; and
conversely, identify areas needing improvement.
EPA will evaluate its climate change adaptation actions on an ongoing basis to assess the
Agency's progress toward attaining the desired long-term outcome of mainstreaming climate
change adaptation into the Agency's programs, policies, rules and operations. Based on lessons
learned about the most effective climate change adaptation strategies, EPA can make
adjustments to the way adaptation is integrated into its activities.
EPA's commitment to measuring and evaluating the progress it is making to integrate climate
adaptation into its programs, policies, rules, and operations is discussed in greater detail in Part
4.
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3.3.10 Priority: Develop Program and Regional Office Implementation Plans
EPA includes National Environmental Program Offices and National Support Offices
headquartered in Washington, D.C., and 10 Regional Offices around the country. The EPA Policy
Statement on Climate-Change Adaptation directs the development of programmatic
Implementation Plans. EPA National Environmental Program Offices9 and Regional Offices will
develop their own Implementation Plans providing more detail on how they will integrate
climate adaptation into their planning and work, and help address the cross-EPA priorities
identified in this agency-wide plan. The National Environmental Program and Regional Offices
will have flexibility to develop their Implementation Plans in a manner consistent with their
own circumstances and objectives. Support Offices will assist with the implementation of the
Agency-wide Plan and National Environmental Program and Regional Office Plans as they do for
other initiatives. The ultimate goal of the Implementation Plans is to focus on the core missions
and priorities of the Program and Regional Offices, and to ensure that their programs and
operations are resilient and effective in a changing climate.
The Implementation Plans will be completed by June 28, 2013. While flexibility is essential to
produce Implementation Plans that are effective and responsive in meeting each specific
organization's needs, Environmental Program and Regional Offices will cooperate as they
develop their respective plans, share experiences and lessons learned, and coordinate on issues
that cut across Agency programs and regions. The EPA National Water Program has already
developed the second iteration of its National Water Program Strategy: Response to Climate
Change. The 2008 Strategy and the forthcoming 2012 revision provides opportunities for
lessons learned and examples of how other EPA programs may approach development of their
plans.10
The Cross-EPA Work Group on Climate Adaptation Planning will oversee the development of
the Implementation Plans and identify required interim products (e.g., comprehensive
vulnerability assessments) that will facilitate the development of the Plans.
Common Areas of Focus for Implementation Plans
1. Vulnerability assessments
2. Priority actions on climate adaptation
3. Agency-wide Strategic Measures on climate adaptation
4. Legal and enforcement issues
5. Training and outreach
6. Partnerships with tribes
7. Vulnerable Populations and Places
8. Evaluation and cross-Office pilot projects
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Annual highlights of progress from each Environmental Program and Region will be included in
updates to the agency-wide Climate Change Adaptation Plan that will be submitted on an
annual basis with the Agency's Sustainability Plan. The Implementation Plans will also be used
to provide input to the Agency's annual planning and budgeting process, where appropriate.
In order to promote consistency, the Implementation Plans for all Environmental Program and
Regional Offices will have several common areas of focus, as outlined in the table below. There
will be diversity among the plans and some offices may have a broader scope in some areas
than others. For instance, Regional Offices may be able to focus their efforts on particular
geographic locations more than National Program Offices.
1. Vulnerability assessments: Each Implementation Plan (Office or Region) will contain an
initial assessment of the implications of climate change for the organization's priorities and
objectives. This assessment will build on the work presented in Part 2 of this document.
Program and Regional Offices are at different stages of understanding and addressing the
ways climate change may affect their respective missions. Some Implementation Plans will
therefore have more detailed information on vulnerabilities than others.
2. Priority actions for climate adaptation: Each Implementation Plan will describe the
organization-specific priorities related to climate change adaptation. At the core of each
Implementation Plan will be a description of the activities that the Program or Regional
Office will pursue overtime to integrate climate change adaptation into its programs,
policies and operations. The Plan will describe how these activities address both
organization-specific priorities and the cross-Agency priorities. In addition, Implementation
Plans will describe how Program and Regional Offices will work together on actions that are
most effectively accomplished by more than one Office or Region.
For each action, the Implementation Plan will identify the organization's key partners at the
international, federal, state, tribal, local, public and private sector levels. Attention will be
given to engaging those partners who have been historically under-represented.
Activities will include both short- and long-term actions. Short-term activities may include
actions that are readily achievable, such as specific training needed to begin building
adaptive capacity. Short-term activities may also focus on areas where the organization has
relative certainty about climate impacts, and therefore feels that action cannot be delayed.
The more immediate actions will enable the organization to learn what works. Armed with
the lessons learned, the organization can move forward with insights and information as it
begins to tackle additional issues. Longer-term activities will focus on building resilient,
healthy communities that have the knowledge and tools needed to inform decisions.
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3. Agency-wide Strategic Measures on climate adaptation: At a minimum, the
Implementation Plans will consider activities that address the three existing Agency-wide
Strategic Measures (discussed in Section 3.3.1 and in Part 4), to the extent they are
applicable to the organization.
4. Legal and enforcement issues: Specific legal questions may arise as each Program and
Regional Office integrates adaptation planning into its programs, policies, and rules. Each
Office will describe how its program managers and staff will consult with the appropriate
attorneys in the Office of General Counsel (OGC), Offices of Regional Counsel (ORC), and the
Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance (OECA), as they conduct their adaptation
work.
5. Training and outreach: All Program and Regional Offices will benefit from Agency-wide
training activities that they will work together to develop and implement under the auspices
of the Cross-EPA Work Group on Climate Change Adaptation. Each Implementation Plan will
describe the ways in which the organization will use the Agency-wide training resources to
educate its staff. Each Implementation Plan will also indicate how the organization will then,
overtime, integrate climate adaptation where appropriate into existing Office-specific
training programs used by its workforce and external partners. Regional Offices, working in
coordination with HQ Program Offices as needed, may also choose to take the lead on
cross-media training and awareness-building among states and other external partners.
6. Partnerships with tribes: Each Program and Regional Office Implementation Plan will
include actions to address the tribes' adaptation issues relevant to the Office. The
Implementation Plans will identify how the Office will work collaboratively with tribes to
increase the adaptive capacity of the tribes. This partnership will help ensure that priority
tribal adaptation needs are addressed, and efforts to build adaptive capacity within tribes
are effective. The Office of International and Tribal Affairs (OITA) will support the efforts of
all Offices to consult and partner with the tribes to develop and implement the actions.
Also, OITA will help coordinate the interactions of EPA Offices with tribes to promote
unified EPA consultations with individual tribes.
7. Vulnerable populations and places. Each implementation plan will describe how the
Program or Regional office will identify vulnerable populations and places to climate
change. The process of conducting vulnerability assessments and determining priority
actions for climate adaptation should consider how each Program and Regional Office can
help vulnerable populations and places reduce their exposure to climate change and how to
improve their capacity to predict, prepare for, and avoid adverse impacts. The plans are a
useful tool to account for the regional variability in how climate change will impact people
and places already overburdened by environmental pollution or other stressors.
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8. Evaluation and cross-organization pilot projects: Each Implementation Plan will include a
process for measuring and evaluating the effectiveness over time. Program and Regional
Offices are encouraged to partner with each other to conduct pilot projects that test
climate adaptation approaches that are broadly applicable. Relevant Implementation Plans
will describe these joint efforts, as well as Office-specific pilot projects. The goal is to learn
what approaches work and why. The Implementation Plans will periodically be adjusted to
improve the organization's efforts to integrate climate adaptation into its activities.
3.4 Importance of Partnerships
EPA believes strong partnerships are critical to fulfilling its mission of protecting human health
and the environment. As stated in the EPA Strategic Plan, successful partnerships make the
most effective use of partners' respective bodies of knowledge, resources and talents.
Partnerships are keys to effective integration of climate change adaptation considerations into
the protection of human health and the environment. In general, EPA will focus adaptation
work on existing geographic-based partnerships with the goal of increasing effectiveness in
climate change adaptation efforts.
States, tribes, and local communities share responsibility for protecting human health and the
environment, and
partnerships with EPA are
at the heart of the country's
environmental protection
system. These partnerships
will be critical for efficient,
effective and equitable
implementation of climate
adaptation strategies. EPA's
Regional and Program
Offices will therefore work
with their partners, engage local stakeholders, and use a diversity of approaches to form the
development of adaptive capacity and encourage climate adaptation planning depending upon
state, tribal, and local needs and conditions.
EPA will continue to build and maintain strong partnerships with other federal agencies. For
example, EPA will continue to actively participate in the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation
Task Force and related working groups, including the Task Force's Agency Adaptation Working
Group, the Freshwater Adaptation Working Group, the Fish, Wildlife and Plants Working Group,
and the National Ocean Council. EPA will be part of the Federal Agency Climate Change
Cross-cutting national strategies relevant to adaptation
planning at EPA
National Action Plan: Priorities for Managing Freshwater Resources in a
Changing Climate
Draft National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
Draft National Ocean Policy Implementation Plan
(For more information:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/initiatives/adaptation)
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Adaptation Community of Practice, which is a forum that allows agency staff working on
adaptation to share knowledge and experience on adaptation planning, implementation and
evaluation. The Program and Regional Office Implementation Plans will identify specific areas of
collaboration with other federal agencies where appropriate, such as in delivering support to
tribes.
Finally, climate change impacts do not stop at our borders, but instead can pose risks globally.
EPA is committed to working with our partners internationally to share expertise, practical
experiences, information and data to address adaptation issues.
Endnotes
1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Policy Statement on Climate-Change Adaptation, June 2, 2011,
http://epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/impacts-adaptation/adaptation-statement.pdf.
2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "FY 2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan, Achieving Our Vision" (2011), 43,
http://epa.gov/planandbudget/strategicplan.html.
3 It will also be important, as EPA moves forward, to examine what impact rules being developed now could have
in the future, taking climate into consideration.
4ICF Incorporated, "The Reg Map: Informal Rulemaking," 2003,
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/reginfo/Regmap/regmap.pdf.
5 National Research Council, Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate, Panel on Strategies and Methods for
Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral
and Social Sciences and Education (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2009).
6 National Research Council, Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate, Panel on Strategies and Methods for
Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral
and Social Sciences and Education (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2009).
7 S.L Cutter and C. Finch, 'Temporal and Spatial Changes in Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards," Proceedings of
the National Academy of Science 105(7) (2008), 2301-2306.
8 In 2005 EPA started using the term life stages to refer to age-defined groups. The term life stage refers to a
distinguishable time frame in an individual's life characterized by unique and relatively stable behavioral and/or
physiological characteristics that are associated with development and growth. For example, EPA views childhood
as a sequence of lifestages. There are other lifestages that may be important to consider when assessing human
exposure and risk including, pregnancy, nursing, and middle and later years.
9
This includes the Office of Air and Radiation (OAR), Office of Water (OW), Office of Research and Development
(ORD), Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER), Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance
(OECA), Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention (OCSPP) and the Office of International and Tribal
Affairs (OITA).
10
National Water Program Strategy: Response to Climate Change. 2008 and draft 2012. Available at:
http://www.epa.gov/water/climatechange
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Part 4: Measuring and Evaluating Performance
4.1 Existing Strategic Performance Measures
The FY2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan outlines the Agency's long-term goals, objectives, and strategic
measures, which are the
measurable human health and
environmental results the
Agency is working to achieve.1
The EPA Strategic Plan
acknowledges that the ability
of communities to respond to
changes in climate over the
coming decades is critical to
achieving many of the
environmental outcomes the
Agency is working towards.
Consequently, the EPA
Strategic Plan contains three
strategic measures intended to
promote the integration of
climate adaptation planning
into the Agency's activities.2
The three strategic measures
are focused on core Agency
activities that influence its ability to fulfill its mission: (1) rule-making processes; (2) the distribution of
financial resources and technical assistance; and (3) the development of science models and decision-
support tools.
The strategic measures are used by the Agency to design annual performance measures that are
presented in EPA's Annual Plans and Budgets, and to establish priorities in the annual National
Program Manager (NPM) Guidance. The Agency then reports on its performance against these annual
measures in the Annual Performance Reports.
1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "FY 2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan, Achieving Our Vision" (2011), 43,
http://epa.gov/planandbudget/strategicplan.html.
2
Performance measures can be used to provide accountability, as well as to guide decisions about program refinement
and prioritization. They can be used to provide program managers and staff, and other external stakeholders, with
valuable information about whether a project or program is meeting the desired goals. Measures can help identify when
program goals are not being met and whether changes need to be made to meet those goals.
FY 2011-2015 Strategic Measures on Climate Adaptation
By 2015, EPA will account for climate change by integrating climate
change science trend and scenario information into five rule-making
processes to further EPA's mission, consistent with existing authorities
(preference for one related to air quality, water quality, cleanup
programs, and chemical safety.)
By 2015, EPA will build resilience to climate change by integrating
considerations of climate change impacts and adaptive measures into
five major grants, loan, contract, or technical assistance programs to
further EPA's mission, consistent with existing authorities (preference
for one related to air quality, water quality, cleanup programs, and
scientific research).
By 2015, EPA will integrate climate change science trend and scenario
information into five major scientific models and/or decision-support
tools used in implementing Agency environmental management
programs to further EPA's mission, consistent with existing authorities
(preference for one related to air quality, water quality, cleanup
programs, and chemical safety.)
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In its FY2011-2015 Strategic Plan, EPA emphasizes the importance of continuously evaluating
activities based on their
progress and performance, and
acting on lessons learned. EPA
is already using the three
strategic measures pertaining
to climate change adaptation to
begin evaluating its actions on
an ongoing basis. Through
ongoing evaluation, the Agency
will learn how to effectively mainstream climate adaptation planning into its activities. EPA will
evaluate what worked and why, as well as what didn't work and why not. Based on the lessons, EPA
will make adjustments to the way adaptation is integrated into its activities.
4.2 New Performance Measures
Over time, the Agency will identify where its adaptation activities have or can have the greatest
impact on protecting human health and the environment. However, it will be an ongoing challenge to
measure the direct impact of EPA's adaptation planning activities on the resilience of its programs,
and on the human health and environmental outcomes it is striving to attain. Metrics that enable one
to attribute changes in resilience of environmental and human health outcomes to EPA's adaptation
efforts, where this is possible, do not yet exist. Such metrics need to be developed over time.
Although the three existing strategic measures do not directly attribute changes in resilience of
environmental and human health outcomes to EPA's adaptation efforts, they are focused on essential
processes and outcomes (e.g., increased adaptive capacity gained through changes in knowledge and
changes in behavior) that are important steps toward achieving the long-term goal of resilience to
climate change.
As the Agency works to fulfill each of the three existing strategic measures, it might be possible to
identify additional actions that must be taken to successfully attain the measures. For example, as
EPA Program Offices integrate climate change adaptation into major rulemaking processes, they may
discover that an effective approach is through the development of guidance for states and tribes
authorized to implement Federal environmental programs. Identification of key steps like this might
lead to the development of additional measures (e.g., numbers of states applying climate-related
aspects of EPA guidance) for evaluating EPA's progress.
As EPA works with interested states and tribes to consider climate adaptation as they implement
environmental programs, it could work with them to explore ways to measure changes in their
adaptive capacity. Metrics could reflect changes in knowledge (e.g., number of partners taking formal
Importance of Program Evaluation
Because EPA programs and regions will be learning by experience as we
integrate climate change adaptation into regulation, financial
mechanisms and information tools, it will be essential to apply
evaluation as a tool to better understand how well approaches work and
how they can be improved upon.
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training to increase their awareness of the importance of adaptation planning), changes in behavior
(e.g., increases in the use of decision support tools to integrate climate adaptation planning into state
and local planning activities such as infrastructure planning decisions), and changes in state/condition
(e.g., changes in the ability of communities to withstand more frequent and intense storm events and
avoid, for example, combined sewer overflow events).
Some of the pilot projects that will appear in Program and Regional Office Implementation Plans may
also explore innovative ways for measuring changes in adaptive capacity through changes in
knowledge, changes in behavior, or changes in state/condition. These will also inform the
development of future Agency strategic measures.
EPA recognizes that the integration of climate adaptation planning into its programs, policies, rules,
and operations will occur over time. This change will happen in stages and measures should reflect
this evolution. The earliest changes in many programs will be changes in knowledge and awareness
(e.g., increase in the awareness of EPA staff and their external partners of the relevance of
adaptation planning to their programs). Building on this knowledge, they then will begin to change
their behavior (e.g., increase their use of available decision support tools to integrate adaptation
planning into their work). As programs mature, there will be evidence of more projects implemented
as a result of increased attention to climate-related programmatic issues. Finally, in the long-term,
adaptation planning efforts will lead to changes in condition (e.g., percentage of flood-prone
communities that have increased their resilience to storm events) to directly support EPA's mission to
protect human health and the environment.
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Summary of Program Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Impacts by EPA Strategic Goal
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS b
EPA PROGRAMMATIC IMPACTS c
Climate Change Impactd
Likelihood of
Impacte
Focus of Associated EPA
Program
Likelihood EPA
Program will
be Affected by
Impact
Example of Risks if Program were Impacted
Increased tropospheric
ozone pollution in
certain regions
Likely1
Protecting public health and
the environment by setting
National Ambient Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS) and
implementing programs to
help meet the standards
High
Could become more difficult to attain NAAQS for ozone in many
areas with existing ozone problems
Increased frequency or
intensity of wildfires
Likely2
Protecting public health and
the environment by setting
National Ambient Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS) and
implementing programs to
help meet the standards
Medium
Could complicate Agency efforts to protect public health and the
environment from risks posed by particulate matter (PM)
pollution in areas affected by more frequent wildfires
Increasing extreme
temperatures
Increasing heavy
precipitation events
Very Likely3
Likely3
Protect public health by
promoting healthy indoor
environments through
voluntary programs and
guidance
Medium
Could increase public health risks, including risks for the young,
the elderly, the chronically ill, and socioeconomically
disadvantaged populations
Effects on the
stratospheric ozone
layer
Likely4
Restoring the stratospheric
ozone layer
Preventing UV-related
disease
Providing a smooth transition
to safer alternatives
High
Unable to restore ozone concentrations to benchmark levels as
quickly at some latitudes
Effects on response of
ecosystems to
atmospheric deposition
of sulfur, nitrogen, and
mercury
Likely5
Ecosystem protections from
Agency emissions reduction
programs
Low
Based on evolving research, could have consequences for the
effectiveness of ecosystem protections under those programs
Public Review Draft - June 29, 2012
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS b
EPA PROGRAMMATIC IMPACTS c
Likelihood EPA
Goala
Likelihood of
Focus of Associated EPA
Program will
Climate Change Impact
Impacte
Program
be Affected by
Impact
Example of Risks if Program were Impacted
Increasing heavy
Likely3
Restoring and protecting
High
Increased number of sewer overflows and wastewater bypasses,
precipitation events
watersheds, aquatic
as well increased pollutant loads in runoff, fouling streams and
Increasing intensity of
Likely3
ecosystems and wetlands
threatening public health.
hurricanes
Challenges to coastal wetlands' ability to migrate.
Sea-level rise
Very likely6
Reduced streamflow, altering the aquatic environments and
Decreasing
Likely7
increasing impairments.
precipitation days and
Continued stress on coral reefs.
increasing drought
Shifts in aquatic habitat will threaten the economic and cultural
intensity
Certain8
practices of tribal communities.
Ocean acidification
. . , | ¦ 9
Increased water
Very Likely
tn
(D
4->
temperatures
ro
5
Increasing heavy
Likely3
Drinking water, wastewater
High
Water infrastructure could be overwhelmed or damaged.
tn
ro
precipitation events
and stormwater
Drinking water intakes and wastewater outfalls could be
u
'i
-------
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS b
EPA PROGRAMMATIC IMPACTS c
Goala
Climate Change Impactd
Likelihood of
Impacte
Focus of Associated EPA
Program
Likelihood EPA
Program will
be Affected by
Impact
Example of Risks if Program were Impacted
o3
tn
CD
+-» -t-1
H
c Q"
Sea Level Rise
Increasing heavy
precipitation events
Increasing risk of floods
Changes in
temperature
Very likely6
Likely7
Likely7
Very likely3
Cleaning up Contaminated
Sites and Waste
Management
Low
Increased risk of contaminate release from EPA Sites
May need to alter selected remedies to ensure protection.
O QJ
u >
is* &
"co ^
U (D
11
<£ ro
q-'K
Z) u
Melting permafrost in
Northern Regions
Likely10
Cleaning up Contaminated
Sites and Waste
Management
High
Increased risk of contaminant release at sites and potential impact
to drinking water where permafrost was utilized as a containment
remedy.
May need to implement new remedies to contain contaminants at
sites previously protected by permafrost.
c tLO
S-!
51
. . T3
m <
~CU
o
(J
Increasing intensity of
hurricanes
Increasing heavy
precipitation events
Increasing risk of floods
Likely3
Likely3
Likely7
Emergency Response
High
Increased need for emergency response.
Possible limitations to response capability due to staff and
financial resource constraints.
Goal 4: Ensuring Safety
of Chemicals &
Preventing Pollution
Increasing extreme
temperatures
Increasing heavy
precipitation events
Very likely3
Likely3
Protecting human health and
ecosystems from chemical
risks.
Low
Assure that chemical exposure models reflect changes in the
environment
Changing in planting timing or location may affect the volume and
timing of agricultural chemical use which could impact the
appropriate risk management decisions.
Facilities and
Operations
Increased Water
Temperatures
Decreasing
precipitation days and
increasing drought
intensity
Very likely9
Likely7
Water usage at EPA facilities
High
Water temperatures impact research activities or cooling
requirements.
Facilities could be located in areas with water shortages
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Focus of Associated EPA
Program
Operations of Agency
facilities, personnel safety,
physical security, and
emergency communications
Emergency management
mission support (protective
gear and acquisition)
Public Review Draft - June 29, 2012
EPA PROGRAMMATIC IMPACTS'
Medium
Facilities in coastal or flood-prone areas
Personnel engaged in field work and vulnerable to extreme
temperatures or events
Security, lighting and communication systems without backup
power
Personnel and real property supporting emergency response and
management
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Footnotes for Summary of Climate Change Vulnerabilities to Climate Change
Impacts by EPA Goal Table
aThis table summarizes vulnerabilities by goal for four of the five goals in EPA's
Strategic Plan. Goal 5 "Enforcing Environmental Laws" is not included in this table.
Please note that the table also summarizes vulnerabilities to EPA facilities and
operations; this is not part of the EPA Strategic Plan goal structure but is an
important element of EPA's vulnerability assessment. Please see Section 2 of this
document for a fuller discussion of impacts.
bClimate Change Impacts are based upon peer-reviewed scientific literature
c Programmatic Impacts are based upon EPA best professional judgment at this time.
d Impacts can vary by season and location.
0 In general, the sources cited in this section use Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) likelihood of outcome terminology where the term 'very
likely'means 90-100% probability and the term'likely'means 66-100%
probability. For some impacts in the table, additional discussion on the likelihood
term is provided in the associated footnote.
f High assumes the program will be affected by the impact; Medium assumes the
program could be affected under some conditions by the impact; Low assumes that
there is a potential for the program to be impacted or uncertainty currently exists
as to the potential nature and extent of the impact. This assessment is based on
best professional judgment within EPA at this time. Please note, this column does
not reflect several important considerations. For example it does not distinguish
timeframes (current, near-term, long-term). It does not account for regional and
local variations. And it does not reflect the priority of actions the agency may
undertake now or in the future.
Public Review Draft - June 29, 2012
1) Denman, K.L., et al. (2007). Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and
Biogeochemistry. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller
(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
2) C.B. Field et al., "North America," Chapter 14 in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van
der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge
University Press, 2007).
3) IPCC, 2012: Summary for Policymakers. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and
Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J.
Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea,K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M.
Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-19.
4) World Meteorological Organization, Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global
Ozone Research and Monitoring ProjectReport No. 52 (Geneva, Switzerland, 2011). Note: the
word "expected" is used in the report to characterize projected climate change impacts on the
stratospheric ozone layer. For purposes of this table the word "likely" has been used as a proxy for
"expected."
5) Burns, D.A., Lynch, J.A., Cosby, B.J., Fenn, M.E., Baron, J.S., US EPA Clean Air Markets Div.,
2011,National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program Report to Congress 2011: An Integrated
Assessment, National Science and Technology Council, Washington, DC, p. 114.
6) IPCC, 2012: "It is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in
extreme coastal high water levels in the future."
7) USGCRP, 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States . Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M.
Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson (eds.). United States Global Change Research Program. Cambridge
University Press, New York, NY, USA.
8 ) NRC, 2010: National Research Council of the National Academies, America's Climate
Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change, 2010. p41. "One of the most certain
outcomes from increasing C02 concentrations in the atmosphere is the acidification of the world's
oceans." For purposes of this table, the term "certain" is used.
9) USGCRP, 2009: p. 46. [In the case of freshwater] "Increased air temperatures lead to higher
water temperatures, which have already been detected in many streams, especially during
low-flow periods." For the purposes of this table "very likely" is used.
10) Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., 2008: Climate
Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, p. 130
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