Updates in Power Sector Modeling Baseline Projections for 2015 Ozone NAAQS Actions This document describes the updates made in the EPA's Power Sector Modeling assumptions that are incremental to the EPA's Power Sector Modeling Platform v6 using IPM Summer 2021 Reference Case. The Updated Summer 2021 Reference Case uses NEEDS rev: 08_03_2022 (NEEDS Summer 2022) reflecting the updates in retirements and committed units as of Summer 2022, in addition to unit level comments the Agency has received during the comment period of the Proposed Good Neighbor Plan and the Proposed 2015 Ozone NAAQS SIP Disapprovals that are determined to be accurate. Modeling inputs also include some additional updates based on EPA's research. The list of updates is given below: i) Retirements from NEEDS rev: 08_03_2022 are implemented. ii) IPM-based projected economic retirement capability is deactivated for year 2023 reflecting the notion that any 2023 retirements are likely already announced and captured through the aforementioned NEEDS file. iii) Committed new units from NEEDS rev: 08_03_2022 are implemented with the exception of new units for new solar and new wind units were still in the "planned" status rather than a "under construction" or "approved" status. iv) IPM projected economic new builds are allowed to ensure IPM feasibility in 2023. v) Combined cycle unit NOx rates are updated and reflect a methodology producing more representative rates. vi) Illinois Climate and Equitable Jobs Act related requirements are implemented. a. A new 100% clean energy constraint in 2050 in Illinois is implemented. Also updated are the IL RPS standards to 40% in 2030 and 50% in 2040. b. IPM retirements of Braidwood, Byron, and Dresden nuclear plants in the 2023 and 2025 run years are not allowed. c. Fossil units in Illinois are retired or/and their C02 emissions are limited as in the table below. CT/CC new builds in PJM_COMD and MISJL regions disabled in the 2045, 2050, and-2055 run years. Private/Public Fuel C02 Limit Retirement Run Year Private Coal - 2030 Oil - 2030 Gas Reduce C02 emissions by 50% from the 2018-2020 2045 average levels by 2035 Public Coal Reduce C02 emissions by 45% from the 2018-2020 2050 average levels by 2035 Oil - - Gas - 2045 vii) Henry Hub gas prices of 5.07 2019$/MMBtu and 3.60 2019$/MMBtu are hardwired in the 2023 and 2025 run years, respectively. No changes are assumed to basis and seasonality. The 2023 modification captures near-term fuel price spikes and are not applied in subsequent years as market conditions are expected to return to alignment with base supply curve expectations. ------- viii) Coal supply curve costs in 2023 are adjusted using the cost scalars below to capture near-term fuel price spikes. These scalers are not applied for subsequent years as market conditions are expected to return to alignment with base supply curve expectations. Coal Coal Supply Affected Coal Grade Grade Region Coal Supply Region Coal Basin Cost Scalar Central Appalachia 12,500 Btu, 1.2 S02 BB KE Kentucky, East Central Appalachia 1.156 Central Appalachia 12,500 Btu, 1.2 S02 BB TN Tennessee Central Appalachia 1.156 Central Appalachia 12,500 Btu, 1.2 S02 BB VA Virginia Central Appalachia 1.156 Central Appalachia 12,500 Btu, 1.2 S02 BB WS West Virginia, South Central Appalachia 1.156 Illinois Basin 11,800 Btu, 5.0 S02 BG IL Illinois East Interior (Illinois Basin) 1.757 Illinois Basin 11,800 Btu, 5.0 S02 BG IN Indiana East Interior (Illinois Basin) 1.757 Illinois Basin 11,800 Btu, 5.0 S02 East Interior (Illinois BG KW Kentucky, West Basin) 1.757 Northern Appalachia 13,000 Btu, <3.0 S02 BE MD Maryland Northern Appalachia 1.196 Northern Appalachia 13,000 Btu, <3.0 S02 BE OH Ohio Northern Appalachia 1.196 Northern Appalachia 13,000 Btu, <3.0 S02 BE PC Pennsylvania, Central Northern Appalachia 1.196 Northern Appalachia 13,000 Btu, <3.0 S02 BE PW Pennsylvania, West Northern Appalachia 1.196 Northern Appalachia 13,000 Btu, <3.0 S02 BE WN West Virginia, North Northern Appalachia 1.196 Powder River Basin 8,800 Btu, 0.8 S02 SA WH Wyoming, Powder River Basin (8800) Powder River Basin 1.46 Powder River Basin 8,400 Btu, 0.8 S02 SA WL Wyoming, Powder River Basin (8400) Powder River Basin 1.46 ix) The minimum capacity factor requirements of 10% to existing coal steam units in regions without capacity markets (non-NYISO, ISONE, PJM, and MISO regions) have been implemented as listed below. Model Region Model Region Model Region Model Region ERC_REST S_C_TVA WEC_CALN WECC_SNV ERC_WEST S_SOU WEC_LADW WECC_UT ERC_PHDL SPP_NEBR WEC_SDGE WECC_PNW ERC_GWAY SPP_N WECC_SCE WECC_CO FRCC SPP_KIAM WECC_MT WECC_WY S_VACA SPP_WEST WEC_BANC WECC_AZ S_C_KY SPP_SPS WECCJD WECC_NM S_D_AECI SPP_WAUE WECC_NNV WECCJID x) For the coal units with post 2023 retirement years, the retrofit capital charge rates were recalculated based on a booklife equal to the remaining life in 2025. The year 2025 was chosen as 2025 contains calendar year 2026 mapping. 2026 is the first year of the GNP when SCR retrofits might be required. ------- |