Fuel Supply Defaults Regional Fuels and the Fuel Wizard in MOVES5


Fuel Supply Defaults

Regional Fuels and the Fuel Wizard

in MOVES5

&EPA

United States
Environmental Protection
Agency

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Fuel Supply Defaults

Regional Fuels and the Fuel Wizard

This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions
or positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using
data that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such
reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to
inform the public of technical developments.

in MOVES5

Assessment and Standards Division
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

NOTICE

4>EPA

United States
Environmental Protection
Agency

EPA-420-R-24-017
November 2024

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Contents

1.	Introduction	3

2.	Development of Base Fuel Regions	5

3.	Incorporation of Local Gasoline Programs	7

4.	Development of Gasoline Property Values	11

4.1	Formulations for 2013 and Earlier	14

4.1.1	Processing of Gasoline Batch Data	14

4.1.2	Revision ofVolatility Parameters	15

4.1.3	Revision of California Fuel Properties	17

4.1.4	Revision of Ethanol Blend Market Shares	17

4.2	Formulations for 2014-2020	17

4.2.1 Development of E15 and E0 Formulations	18

4.3	Formulations for 2021 and Later	20

5.	Diesel, CNG, and E85 Fuels	24

5.1	Diesel	24

5.1.1	Sulfur C ontent	24

5.1.2	Methyl Ester (Biodiesel) Content	25

5.2	Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)	28

5.3	High-Level Ethanol Blends (E85)	28

6.	Nonroad Fuel Supply	29

7.	Fuel Wizard Factors	31

8.	References	34

Appendix A: MOVES Fuel Region Maps	36

Appendix B: Gasoline Formulation Trends in MOVES, 1990-2024 	63

Appendix C: Comparison of MOVES5 and MOVES4 Fuel Property Values	64

2

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1. Introduction

The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator—
commonly referred to as MOVES—is a set of modeling tools for estimating air pollution
emissions produced by onroad (highway) and nonroad mobile sources. MOVES estimates the
emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), criteria pollutants and selected air toxics. The MOVES
model is currently the official model for use for state implementation plan (SIP) submissions to
EPA and for transportation conformity analyses outside of California. The model is also the
primary modeling tool for estimating the impact of mobile source regulations on emission
inventories. This document describes the fuel supply components of MOVES and methodology
used to develop them. Fuel-related emission adjustments are described in a separate document.14

MOVES estimates emissions of onroad vehicles and nonroad equipment using the "fuel types"
gasoline (EO through El5), diesel (including biodiesel blends), compressed natural gas (CNG),
E85 ethanol blends, and electricity. MOVES also models nonroad equipment using liquified
petroleum gas (LPG), and onroad vehicles powered by batteries or fuel cells using the electricity
fuel type.3 MOVES does not currently model use of liquified natural gas (LNG) due to its small
market share and lack of related data. MOVES also does not currently model emission impacts
of renewable diesel, and thus it is not necessary to account for it in the fuel supply. Within the
gasoline and diesel fuel types, the model considers different fuel subtypes, as shown in Table
1-1. Each of these subtypes has a number of specific formulations that vary with region, season,
and calendar year. More information on nonroad fuels is available in Section 6.

The MOVES fuel supply is primarily comprised of three tables that reference each other. The
regionCounty table assigns a fuel region to each county for each calendar year (CY). This allows
a given county to change fuel regions over time, which may occur if a local area adopts a
volatility control program, for example. The fuel Supply table designates fuelFormulationlDs and
marketShares for each fuel region by month and year, which allows formulations to change by
season as well as over the years as federal regulations or other blending practices change. The
fuelFormulation table assigns specific properties, such as ethanol, aromatics, and sulfur level, to
each fuelFormulationlD. Two other tables, fuelType and fuelSubtype, specify additional
properties like density, carbon, and energy content, that are applied to emission computations
that don't vary with individual formulations. An additional table (fuelUsageFactor) sets the
fraction of Flex-Fuel Vehicle fuel usage that is E85 versus gasoline.

The default fuel supply in MOVES5 uses the same regional fuel structure as in MOVES4.
Significant updates were made for 2021 and later gasoline fuel formulations to make use of a
large number of retail fuel samples now available to EPA following the 2020 fuels regulatory
streamlining rule.b This survey is described in more detail later in this document.

a While hydrogen may be used in fuel cells, it is not considered a fuel type in MOVES and the model does not
quantify any emissions from its combustion, refueling, or leakage.
b See 85 Fed. Reg 78412.

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Table 1-1. Fuel subtypes in MOVES.

TypelD

SubtypelD

Description

Application Type

Conventional Gasoline (CG)

Onroad + Nonroad

Reformulated Gasoline (RFG)

Onroad + Nonroad

Gasohol (E10)

Onroad + Nonroad

Gasohol (E8)

Onroad + Nonroad

Gasohol (E5)

Onroad + Nonroad

Gasohol (E15)

Onroad

Conventional Diesel Fuel

Onroad + Nonroad

Biodiesel Blend

Onroad + Nonroad

Nonroad Diesel Fuel

Nonroad

Marine Diesel Fuel

Nonroad

Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)

Onroad

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)

Nonroad

Ethanol (E85)a

Onroad

Electricity

Onroad

a Subtype 51 currently uses a single blend level of 74% ethanol to represent a national annual
average, with two RVP levels (summer and winter).

The document is organized into the following sections plus three appendices.

• Sections 2 and 3 describe development of the geographical areas used in the fuel supply.

• Section 4 describes development of the gasoline fuel formulations.

• Sections 5 describes the onroad diesel, CNG and E85 fuel characteristics.

• Section 6 describe the fuel supply used for nonroad equipment.

• Section 7 describes the Fuel Wizard tool used to estimate secondary fuel property
changes for gasoline blending.

• Appendix A provides color-coded maps showing which counties correspond with which
regionlDs for years 1990-2024.

• Appendix B presents average gasoline formulation trends over years 2000-2024.

• Appendix C presents a comparison between the MOVES5 and MOVES4 fuel
formulations for 2021 and later.

The fuel supply documentation has undergone three peer-reviews since the release of
MOVES2014, pursuant to EPA's peer review guidance.1 In 2017, we peer-reviewed an internal
version referred to as "MOVES201X" that included updates to MOVES2014.2 In 2020, we
conducted another peer-review of further updates for MOVES3.3 The most recent peer review
was conducted in 2024 on a draft version of MOVES5. Improvements to the fuel supply were
made in response to peer-review comments in all cases. Materials from each peer review,
including peer-review comments and EPA responses are located on the EPA's science inventory
webpage.0

0 https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/

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2. Development of Base Fuel Regions

The base fuel regions in MOVES were developed starting from Petroleum Area for Defense
District boundaries (a historic division of fuel supply areas developed in the 1950s) along with
locations of fuel terminals and pipelines using data from Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)
and Energy Information Administration (EIA), which allowed grouping of areas sharing
connections to similar refined product delivery networks.4 " A dividing line between base regions
1 and 2 can be seen along the Appalachians, with major pipelines forming a distribution corridor
running from Houston, Texas, to the east side of the mountain range and up into New England .
Meanwhile, another product network runs north from the Houston area into the midwest and
plains states that comprise base regions 2 and 3. A high-level depiction of these pipelines
overlaid onto state boundaries is shown in Figure 2-1. This analysis, along with reformulated
gasoline requirements in some areas, led to the base fuel regions described in Table 2-1 and
shown in Figure 3-1.

Figure 2-1. Illustration of petroleum product pipelines in the continental United States

5

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Table 2-1. Base fuel region ID numbers and general descriptions.

Region
ID

Base Region
Name

General Description

1

East Coast,
Caribbean

East coast states, west to Appalachians; Florida and Gulf Coast region;
Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

2

Midwest

Midwest states, east to Appalachians; Tennessee; Kentucky

3

South

Iowa to Texas (North to South); Alabama to New Mexico (East to West);
does not include counties along the Gulf Coast

4

North

North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin

5

Rocky Mtns.

Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountain states

6

AZ/NV/HI

Arizona except Phoenix area; Nevada; Hawaii

7

Alaska

All Alaska counties

11

East Coast RFG

East coast states and regions using reformulated gasoline (RFG)

12

MD/VA RFG

Maryland and Virginia regions using RFG

13

Texas RFG

Texas regions using RFG

14

Midwest RFG

Midwest regions using RFG

15

California RFG

California and Phoenix-area counties using
fuel produced by California refineries

16

Colorado RFG

Denver-area counties using RFG

6

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3. Incorporation of Local Gasoline Programs

After developing the base fuel regions, areas of local gasoline controls were added. Such controls
exist in areas where local authorities have attempted to improve air quality by changing the
gasoline formulation requirements (e.g., lower limits on RVP or sulfur). The regionCounty table
assigns a region [regionID] to each county [countylD] in a given year [fuelYearlD], including
regions with state or local fuel control programs. Each county also has an identifier
[regionCodelD] which allows separate fuel regions for onroad and nonroad gasoline applications
(though this is not exercised in the default supply).

The regionID field contains formatted information regarding key parameters in the fuel region
and can be decoded as AABBCCDDXXwhere:

AA = base region ID

BB = maximum summer region RVP value (pre-2021)d, or 00 for national defaulte
CC = absence of RVP waiver, where 01 indicates no waiver
DD = minimum ethanol level in volume percent (vol%)

XX = reservedfor future use

The full set of the 25 regionID values used in MOVES are shown in Table 3-1. Base region IDs
comprised of two digits indicate a reformulated gasoline (RFG) area. The maximum summer
RVP refers to the maximum Reid Vapor Pressure, which is a measure of the volatility of the fuel.
Local air agencies may set a limit on vapor pressure of the gasoline fuel to reduce evaporative
emissions of volatile organic compounds. A value of "00" indicates that the region is using the
federal RVP limit.

The RVP waiver refers to the 1.0 psi RVP allowance for gasoline containing ethanol at 9 to 10
volume percent. For example, for a region with a summer RVP standard of 7.8 psi, the actual
RVP limit for an E10 fuel in the market would be 8.8 psi. Not all fuel regions allow for the 1.0
psi fuel waiver; for example, a State Implementation Plan (SIP) may withhold the 1.0 psi waiver
to help meet air quality goals. Thus, the presence or absence of an RVP waiver is part of each
region definition. Note that, for CY 2021 and later, emission calculations are based on actual
RVP values taken from survey data, which are typically 0.2 to 0.4 psi below the limit.

The minimum ethanol content parameter indicates the minimum ethanol level that has
historically been required either by RFG or a local fuel program. The RFG oxygenate
requirement was lifted by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, and the ethanol content values used in
emission calculations use measurements from survey data. However, the oxygenate parameter in
RFG regionlDs has been retained for consistency with earlier versions.

' ' The RFG program's volatility limit was simplified in 2021 to move away from an emission performance standard based on the Complex Model
to instead apply an RVP cap of 7.4 psi. This is reflected in the fuel formulations, but the regionID values were not modified.
e During the summer ozone season, the Clean Air Act limit of 9.0 psi applies to all gasoline in the contiguous 48 states unless modified by the 1-
psi E10 waiver (nearly all gasoline currently), RFG limits, or other local RVP control programs. During the shoulder and winter seasons,
volatility limits are set by ASTM and are focused on optimizing vehicle performance.

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Table 3-1. RegionID values in MOVES (all calendar years).







Maximum

E10 RVP

Minimum
Ethanol
Volume,

%



Base



Summer RVP

Waiver

Region ID

Region

Base Region Name

(psi) or 0.0 for

Status



ID#



National

(01=No l-psi







Default

Waiver)

0

0

Nationwide regiona

0.0

01

51

100000000





0.0

00

0

100010000



East Coast,
Caribbean

0.0

01

0

170000000

1

7.0

00

0

178000000



7.8

00

0

178010000





7.8

01

0

200000000





0.0

00

0

270000000

2

Midwest

7.0

00

0

278000000

7.8

00

0

278010000





7.8

01

0

300000000





0.0

00

0

370000000

3

South

7.0

00

0

370010000





7.0

01

0

400000000

4

North

0.0

00

0

500000000

5

Rocky Mountains,

0.0

00

0

578000000

Pacific Northwest

7.8

00

0

600000000

6

AZ, NV, HI

0.0

00

0

678000000

7.8

00

0

700000000

7

Alaska

11.5

00

0

1170011000

11

East Coast RFG

7.4 b

01

10

1270011000

12

MD/VA RFG

7.4 b

01

10

1370011000

13

Texas RFG

7.4 b

01

10

1470011000

14

Midwest RFG

7.4 b

01

10

1570011000

15

California RFG

7.4 b

01

10

1670011000

16

Colorado RFG

7.4 b

01

10

3Region 0 is only used in estimating the emissions from vehicles running on high-level ethanol blends (e.g., E85). For
additional details, see the MOVES fuel effects documentation. Minimum ethanol content shown here is set to match the
ASTM definition of E85 products being those containing between 51-83 vol% ethanol.

bThe value of 7.4 psi reflects the RVP limit after the 2020 fuels regulatory streamlining rule, though regionID values were
not modified.

8

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Figure 3-1 shows the mapping of all fuel regions at a county level in July 2024, These region
assignments are carried forward through 2060. Additional maps are available in Appendix A.

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)

578000000
600000000
678000000
700000000
1170011000
1270011000
1370011000
1470011000
1570011000
1670011000



100000000





100010000

¦

¦

178000000





178010000



¦

200000000





270000000





278000000





300000000





370010000

¦



400000000

~

¦

500000000



Figure 3-1. Map of MOVES fuel regions for 2024.

As mentioned above, the regionCounty table includes a fuelYearlD dimension that corresponds
to the calendar year and spans 1990 through 2060. This allows the model to account for changes
over time in the region to which a county is assigned, for example when local volatility programs
start or end. Updates in MOVES 5 include removal of the summertime 7 psi requirement in the
Kansas City area, ending RFG use in Maine, and addition of new RFG counties in Texas and
Colorado.6 Table 3-2 summarizes changes in local fuel programs for CY 2014 and later.1
Additional information on local fuel programs prior to 2014 are shown in previous versions of
the fuel supply documentation.'

f For CY 1990, RVP values in the MOVES gasoline fuel supply are based on ASTM volatility class limits. Historical
retail survey data suggests actual 1990 RVP values were lower.

9

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Table 3-2. Local fuel program updates for 2014 and later.8

Yearb

State

Change and Data Source

2014

NC

Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford, Davie, Durham, Wake, and Granville counties move to 9 psi.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2014-05-22/pdf/2014-l 1911 .pdf

2014

FL

All areas now at 9 psi. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2014-05-22/Ddf/2014-11911.pdf

2015

AL

All areas now at 9 psi. httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2015-07-02/Ddf/2015-16392.Ddf

2015

ME

York, Cumberland, Sagadahoc, Androscoggin, Kennebec, Knox, and Lincoln comities move to RFG.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2014-08-28/Ddf/2014-20177.Ddf

2016

GA

13 Atlanta metro counties move to 7.8 psi Federal gasoline from 7.0 psi "Georgia Gasoline" (Cherokee,
Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Elenry, Paulding, and
Rockdale). Remaining 32 Georgia Gasoline counties move to 9 psi.
httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2014-03-14/Ddf/2014-05697.pdf

2016

NC

All areas now at 9 psi. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2015-08-17/Ddf/2015-20243.pdf

2017

OH

All areas now at 9 Dsi. httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2017-04-07/Ddf/2017-06889.Ddf and
httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2017-02-15/Ddf/2017-03082.pdf

2017

TN

Nashville area (Davidson, Rutherford, Sumner, Williamson, and Wilson) moves to 9 psi.
httDs://www. govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2017-06-07/Ddf/2017-11700.pdf

2018

LA

Louisiana parishes (Beauregard, Calcasieu, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lafourche, Orleans, Pointe Coupee, St.
Bernard, St. Charles, St. James, and St. Marv) move to 9 Dsi. httDs://www.gDo.gov/fdsvs/Dkg/FR-2017-12-
26/Ddf/2017-27628.Ddf

2018

KY

Cincinnati area (Boone, Campbell, and Kenton) moves to 9 psi, effective July 1,2018.
httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2018-04-02/Ddf/2018-06538.Ddf

2018

TN

Shelbv countv moves to 9 psi. httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2017-12-22/Ddf/2017-27630.Ddf

2019

PA

All areas now at 9 psi. httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2018-12-20/Ddf/2018-27481.Ddf

2019

LA

All areas now at 9 psi. httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2018-10-24/Ddf/2018-23247.Ddf

2020

GA

All areas now at 9 psi. httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2019-05-14/Ddf/2019-09929.Ddf

2021

MO

Kansas Citv area now at 9 psi. httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2021-03-12/Ddf/2021-04764.Ddf

2021

KS

All areas now at 9 psi. httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2021-03-12/Ddf/2021-04763.Ddf

2022

ME

RFG requirement no longer in effect. All counties revert to 9 psi with no 1 psi waiver.
httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2022-08-26/Ddf/2022-18320.pdf

2024

TX

Expansion of RFG in the Dallas-Fort Worth area to include Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall and
Wise counties. httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2023-10-12/Ddf/2023-22532.Ddf

2024

CO

New RFG area covers counties previously at 7.8 psi: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver,
Douglas. Jefferson. Larimer. Weld. httDs://www.govinfo.gov/content/Dkg/FR-2023-10-12/Ddf/2023-
22 5 32 .Ddf

a Pressure values are Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP). Ethanol blending waiver of 1 psi should be added to all RVP values shown
here unless otherwise specified. RFG is federal reformulated gasoline.

b Changes shown were effective at the start of the calendar year (for RFG) or the summer volatility control season unless
otherwise specified.

10

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4. Development of Gasoline Property Values

Since MOVES2014, gasoline fuel properties in the default fuel supply have been based on
thousands of samples collected each year as part of EPA's gasoline compliance program. A list
of the properties used in MOVES fuel formulations is summarized in Table 4-1. Appendix B
presents average gasoline formulation trends over years 2000-2025.

Table 4-1. Fuel data used in MOVES regional fuel property methodology.8

Property data in vol%: Aromatics, Benzene, E200, E300, Ethanol, Olefins

Other property data: Oxygen (mass%), RVP (psi), Sulfur (ppm mass), T50 (°F), T90 (°F).

MOVES also records other fuel properties by fuel subtype for use in calculations of fuel
consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. These properties include carbon content, energy
content and fuel density. For more information see Table 1-1.

In MOVES4 and prior versions, the primary data source had been fuel production records
submitted by refiners, blenders, and importers, covering approximately thirty-thousand batches
per year.11 A limited amount of retail survey data was also available for a number of cities, but
the wide batch-to-batch variation in fuel properties of the production data (Figure 4-1) illustrates
that relying on a limited survey would not provide results sufficiently representative of the mean
fuel quality in each region.1-8 Thus, regional fuel properties were estimated by volume-weighting
the production data using information about the distribution networks.

g T50 and T90 refer to the temperature at which 50 vol% and 90 vol% of the fuel has evaporated. For other fuel
parameter definitions, see the EPA Fuel Trends Report cited in the references.

h These compliance reports are considered Confidential Business Information (CBI) and cannot be provided to the
public in raw form. The data analysis and aggregation are discussed in more detail in Section 5.

1 Further analysis of this production data is available in the EPA Fuel Trends Report cited in the references.

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70

Figure 4-1. Aroniatics maximum, minimum, and mean by U.S. refinery in 2016 for RFG (includes
ethanol blending) and CG (not adjusted for ethanol blending).

The 2020 Fuels Regulatory Streamlining rule limited the batch-by-batch fuel production data
collected from refiners, importers, and blenders to just sulfur, benzene, and RVP while at the
same time it expanded the retail survey program to cover all gasoline nationwide.' Beginning in
January 2021, gasoline samples are being collected from each state proportional to its share of
national gasoline sales, and within the state accounting for population density and transportation
corridors.k The dataset includes all octane grades, sampled proportional to their sales share.
Sampling activity occurs approximately quarterly in each area, though not on the same dates
across all areas. Figure 4-2 shows aromatics data from Los Angeles County over a three-year
period, illustrating significant variation across the retail market. While this program does not
account for every batch of fuel, it is a large, statistically-designed survey that has the advantage
of capturing fuel properties at the point of use. Thus, starting with CY 2021, the MOVES
gasoline fuel property values for each region were redeveloped based solely on this retail survey
data. A comparison of the MOVES4 and MOVES5 fuel formulations is available in Appendix C.

J See 85 Fed. Reg 78412 for more details on the 2020 EPA Fuels Regulatory Streamlining rale. Previously, EPA had
collected retail survey data only from RFG areas. There is additional information on the RFG Survey Association
website at https://www.rfgsa.org/methodology.html.

k California sales volumes are down-weighted by 50% in the sampling scheme to allocate samples across the U.S.
more broadly.

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_
O
>

c
qj

•4—1

c
o

CJ

1/)

u

4-J

03

E
o

30

25

20

15

10

0







i

•



i h

\;

1

• 1

m

L

1 h
\ *

i

6 A

• 1

• I

i

1 1

i ~

A •

A

ft (

f

?

a I

A K

i *

A

i

• *

A





k









• Regular Grade a Premium Grade

Jan-21 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23

Figure 4-2. Range of aromatics content in retail gasoline samples in Los Angeles County.

Table 4-2 shows a high-level summary of sources of fuel formulations in MOVES5. The
remainder of Section 4 describes in more detail the development of specific portions of the fuel
supply.

Table 4-2. Sources of fuel formulations and market shares in the MOV ESS fuel supply
by calendar year and ethanol blend level.1

Calendar
Year ->

1990-2013

2014-2020

2021+

E0

MOVES2014

Computed E0 properties from local E10
formulations using Fuel Wizard factors

E10

MOVES2014 with
updated distillation

values

MOVES4

Retail
survey data

E15

None

Splash-blends computed from local E10 properties
(winter season only in 2014-2018)

Ethanol
Market
Share

MOVES2014

100% E10 with E0 and E15
formulations available in the fuel supply

1 Table 4-4 presents more details for years 2014-2020 in a similar format.

13

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4.1 Formulations for 2013 and Earlier

For years 1990-2006, refinery batch data was unavailable for use in MOVES development. Fhus,
the fuel supply for these years in MOVES2014-and-later was produced by aggregating the
county4evel fuel properties in MOVES2010 (which came from a variety of sources) into new
fuel regions using county VMF weightings.9 For years 2007-2013, a large amount of gasoline
batch data was available that included fuel properties as well as batch volumes, so that volume-
weighted averages could be produced."1 This analysis was performed for MOVES2014 and
updated for MOVES3 and MOVES4 as described below.

4.1.1 Processing of Gasoline Batch Data

Before aggregating the batch data into fuel regions, we repaired or excluded duplicate batches or
those with missing data. We also calculated missing volatility values as described in Section
4.1.2. Then we separated differing types of fuel batches for further processing. In these steps,
non-ethanol and pre-blended gasolines were included in the dataset without adjustment, while
blendstocks for oxygenate blending (BOBs) had properties adjusted to account for ethanol that
would be added downstream from the refinery gate. This was generally done by an averaging
{i.e., dilution) calculation because the properties reported were for the sub-grade hydrocarbon,
which is splash-blended with ethanol at the destination terminal prior to local distribution. This
adjustment is described in more detail in the introduction section of EPA's Fuel Trends Report.8

After these steps, we had between twenty and thirty-five thousand usable batch records for a
given year, with no fuel region being represented by less than one thousand batches. The fuel
property data were then aggregated by fuel region (see Section 2), using fuel batch size as a
weighting factor. Initially, fuels were aggregated into four seasonal categories, including
summer, winter, and two transitionary 'shoulder' seasons. After reviewing the results of these
categories, we determined that there was not adequate data (<100 batches for some regions) on
fuel properties other than RVP and distillation to determine specific shoulder season values.

Thus, two aggregation seasons were used for this dataset: summer (May through September) and
winter (January, February, March, April, October, November, and December). The RVP values
for shoulder season (April and October) were set to intermediate values between summer and
winter, and distillation values adjusted using the factors described in Section 7, Table 7-2. Other
fuel properties were set to winter values for the shoulder months for CY 2013 and earlier.

To determine ethanol content of fuels in years prior to 2014, we used information from the
Annual Energy Outlook report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
in conjunction with the overall fuel energy requirements computed by MOVES to calculate the
E10 market share for years 2013 and earlier.10-11

For sulfur in years prior to 2011, we used the gasoline batch data as the source of the fuel sulfur
content. However, the data suggests that over 80 percent of batches in the 2011 database consist
of blendstock (CBOB/RBOB) for downstream ethanol blending. Therefore, for CY 2011 and
later, when making adjustments to include the addition of ethanol, we did not include dilution
effects on sulfur, but instead set sulfur to 30 ppm consistent with full phase-in of Tier 2 sulfur

m The batch datasets included all grades of gasoline, so that the properties of mid-grade and premium fuels were
weighted into the averages according to their production volumes.

14

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program.12 Benzene, regulated under the MSAT2 standards,13 was also not adjusted for dilution,
under the assumption that refiners were accounting for the ethanol content when adjusting their
benzene levels.

The EPAct emissions models, implemented in MOVES2014 to estimate fuel adjustments to
emissions in 2001 and newer vehicles, were built specifically around ethanol blends and cannot
be used to compute emission impacts of other oxygenates such as MTBE (methyl tertiary-butyl
ether) Thus, in MOVES2014, any MTBE was replaced with ethanol at a 1:1 volume ratio in
order to provide an approximation of fuel effects across the range of model years (no other fuel
properties were adjusted besides the oxygenate). More details on the EPAct models are available
in the MOVES3 Fuel Effects report.14

As a final step, these production-based fuel properties in each region were weighted together
with incoming regional transfers of gasoline produced elsewhere, using data from EIA's
Petroleum Supply Annual reports, in an effort to make them more representative of fuel being
consumed in the region.15 This technique was developed for benzene in the MSAT2 rulemaking
analysis and is described in more detail in Chapter 6.10.1.3 of the associated regulatory impact
analysis.16

4.1.2 Revision of Volatility Parameters

The underlying gasoline batch data used in generating the fuel supply contains E200/E300 values
for the vast majority of batches, consistent with reporting requirements, and T50/T90 for only a
subset. The T-number equivalents are needed for emission adjustments and were initially
calculated using the correlations in Equation 4-1 and Equation 4-2 (derived from E0 gasoline
data as part of the Complex Model).17

A subsequent analysis of more recent market survey data suggested that the correlation between
E and T values should be updated for E10 fuels. Figure 4-3 shows a correlation analysis
developed from 2017 and 2018 Alliance for Automotive Innovation (AAI) surveys for E10
regular grade gasoline for both conventional and reformulated gasolines.18

T50 = 2.0408 x (147.91 - E200)
T90 = 4.5454 x (155.47 - E300)

Equation 4-1
Equation 4-2

15

-------
230
220
210
200
gj>190

~o

o 180

to

i-

170
160
150
140

CG E200 >=58	C6 E200<58

~ MOVES2014	Linear (CG E200 >=58)

Linear (CG E200<58)

T50

V = -5.733X + 485.230
R2 = 0.931

, y=-0.9602x+ 210.94
R2 = 0-7224

Conventional Gasoline (CG)

230

220 L

210
200
gj>190
o 180

LD

h-

170
160
150



v = -3.478X + 373.707
R? = 0.979

RFG E200 > 55 RFG E200 <55
D MOVES2014 Linear (RFG E200> 55)
Linear (RFG E200 <55) 	Linear (MOVES2014)

T50

y=-1.1881x +224.56
R2 = 0.8777

140

Reformulated Gasoline (RFG)

40

45

50	55	60

E200 (vol%)

65

70

40

45

50	55	60

E200 (vol%)

65

70

370
350
330

uT

00

2.310
o
 58)	Equation 4-4

CG T90 = 679.615 - 4.216 x E300	Equation 4-5

RFG T50 = 373.707 - 3.478 « E200 (where E200 -d 55)	Equation 4-6

RFG T50 = 224.56 1.1881 >< E200 (where E200 > 55)	Equation 4-7

RFG T90 = 726.529 - 4.736 k E300	Equation 4-8

16

-------
4.1.3	Revision of California Fuel Properties

The batch data reports available to EPA do not contain data for gasoline sold in California, as
certification of those batches is handled by state authorities. Thus, beginning with MOVES3,
California fuel properties were updated based on AAI surveys collected in Los Angeles and San
Francisco annually starting in CY 2000.18 To cover the earlier years, 1990 and 1999 values
duplicate the 2000 properties. After review of data sources available at the time, we felt this
would produce the most accurate and consistent results.

4.1.4	Revision of Ethanol Blend Market Shares

In MOVES2014, market shares of E0 and E10 ethanol blends were set based on batch data
reports, as described in Section 4.1.1 above. Beginning with MOVES3, market shares of ethanol
blends were simplified to reflect 100% E10 in all regions for 2012 and later. Given the difficulty
of estimating the sales volumes and locations of E0 (non-ethanol fuel) and El 5 ethanol blends,
both of which are very small relative to E10, their market shares have been set to zero for 2012
and later.

4.2 Formulations for 2014-2020

Beginning with MOVES3, we generated a new gasoline fuel supply for CY 2014 and later. For
years 2014-2020, the formulation development drew on batch data from 2015 and 2016 and
applied the analysis methodology described in Section 4.1.1 through 4.1.4." One notable
difference was that all shoulder season properties were set to values intermediate between
summer and winter in each region.

To produce CY 2014, 2015 and 2017-2020 fuel supplies from the 2015-16 batch dataset,
adjustments were made by applying year-by-year relative difference factors computed from
publicly-available refinery batch data summaries on EPA's website.19 This analysis computed
national-scale adjustments by season, year, CG/RFG, and fuel property, and did not attempt to
adjust for the ethanol level of the batch data. These adjustment factors were generally small (i.e.,
a few percent) and the ratio of BOB to finished gasoline was not changing greatly from year to
year.

With MOVES3, the CY 2014-2020 sulfur levels were updated to follow the declining batch data
trend as the Tier 3 sulfur requirement was phased in.20 MOVES4 brought additional updates to
2018-2020 fuel formulations based on refinery batch data made available since MOVES3.

After considering the effects of the 2020 pandemic on refinery operations, a decision was made
in MOVES4 to use national aggregate sulfur data for CY2020 formulations as shown in Table
4-3. Other 2020 fuel property values were computed from 2019 values by applying the Fuel
Wizard factors (described in Section 7) for the sulfur changes observed from 2019 to 2020.

n For California fuels, the survey-based approach described in Section 4.1.3 was used in CY 2014-2016 (the range of
data available at the time of analysis), with formulations for years 2017-2020 being duplicated from 2016.

17

-------
Table 4-3. Gasoline su

fur levels for 2020 for all regions except California.



Summer

Winter

Conventional

7.15 ppm

8.12 ppm

Reformulated

7.36 ppm

8.70 ppm

Finally, EO and E15 formulations were developed for CY 2014 and later (E15 summer blends
begin in 2019) as described in the next subsection. While their market share was set to zero in the
fuelSupply table, the formulations were computed to give users a simple and consistent way to
model these fuels if desired. Table 4-4 summarizes development of the CY 1990-2020 fuel
supply.

Table 4-4. Sources of fuel property values for the 1990-2020 fuel supply
		by calendar year and ethanol blend level 	

Year

2014 2015

2016

2017 2018

2019

2020

E0 formulations

E0 properties computed from local E10 formulations
using Fuel Wizard (i.e., reverse match-blending)

E10 formulations

Adjusted 2016
properties using
batch data and
any local RVP
requirements

Refinery
batch
data

Adjusted 2016 properties
using batch data and any
local RVP requirements

Sulfur set to 2020
batch levels; other
properties derived
from 2019 values
using Fuel Wizard

E15 formulations

Splash-blend properties computed from local
E10 formulations for winter and shoulder
seasons only

Splash-blend properties
computed from local E10
formulations year-round

4.2.1 Development of El 5 and E0 Formulations

El5 properties were computed assuming splash blending from the local E10, consistent with the
extension of the 1 psi waiver to E15. This is the most likely scenario until E15 volumes are large
enough to warrant their own sub-grade blendstocks. Thus, the aromatics, sulfur, benzene, and
olefin values for E15 were computed as 0.95 times the E10 property value based on
mathematical dilution.0 Effects on distillation properties were estimated by comparing regular
grade E10 and El 5 values from Appendix A of the 2010 API blending study 21 (presented in
Figure 4-4 and Figure 4-5).

° This computation assumes there is a negligible amount of aromatics, sulfur, and air toxics in denatured fuel
ethanol. Denatured fuel ethanol typically contains about 2% of a hydrocarbon mixture that is similar to market
gasoline but can vary in composition.

18

-------
170
168
166

gf 164

TJ

O

o 160
in

158
156
154

















• •





y = 0.1284X +

137.15







R2 = 0.6658







•

•

•

..J-*"





•
• *



•

•







• •







•
•

•







140

160	180	200

T50 of E10 Base (deg.F)

220

240

Figure 4-4. T50 effect of splash blending E15 from E10 in 2010 API blending study.

350

340

330

tuo
01
TJ

O

£ 310

300

290











• •



y = 0.9529X + 12.042



•

>



R2 = l

D.949

•





••

•

¦•L

* •







•

m
•
•







*









290

300	310	320	330	340

T90 of E10 Base (deg.F)

350

Figure 4-5. T90 effect of splash blending E15 from E10 in 2010 API blending study.

The correlations shown in Figure 4-4 suggests that adding 5% ethanol to an El0 blend reduces
and compresses the T50 temperature into a narrow range between 150-162°F. The effect on T90
is much more moderate (Figure 4-5), reducing the E10 value by a few degrees. RVP was reduced
by 0.15 psi for the El 5 blend based on results of the same study.

T50ei5 = 137.15 + 0.1284 x T50eio	Equation 4-9

T90ei5 = 12.042 + 0.9529 x T90eio	Equation 4-10

Populating the fuelFormulation table with the El5 splash blends requires E200 and E300 values,

19

-------
so the reverse of the earlier conversions of the batch data was required here. Since there is no
large survey of market E15 fuels to draw upon, the same AAI survey dataset used for the E10
correlations was used. The earlier E300/T90 relationship was simply inverted, but for E200/T50
the correlation was refit to a limited E200 range of 55-60 vol% expected to be most applicable to
E15 fuels (Figure 4-6).p

61

















60









ill.

v j • .







59

V =

-0.1909X + 87.784
R2 = 0.6026



^"58



• •





• ¦







o

•^57

Q

•	1

•	1

f |

~ • . . V.





o

a 56

•

1 s • s"*. 1
• ; : . : • • :

. * •
•





:-V\

~ •

A



55



m •	 • * • *

» * x • • •











54









53

















150

155

160 165

170 175 180

185





T50 (deg.F)



Figure 4-6. E200 to T50 correlation for E15 fuels based on AAI 2017-18 market surveys.18

Results of this analysis are shown in Equation 4-11 and Equation 4-12.

E200 = 87.784 - 0.1909 * T50	Equation 4-11

E300 = 156.69 + 0.2229 x T90	Equation 4-12

Producing E0 properties for each region based on the local E10 required a reverse match-
blending computation to make up for ethanol's octane. The updated Fuel Wizard factors
(discussed in more detail in Section 7) were applied for all properties except RVP and T50/T90.
RVP was adjusted downward by 1 psi except in areas without the 1-psi waiver. The distillation
values of T50/T90 were computed using the E0 correlations to E200/E300 shown in Equation
4-1 and Equation 4-2.

4.3 Formulations for 2021 and Later

In MOVES5, gasoline formulations for CY 2021 and later were produced from an analysis of
approximately 16,500 retail survey samples collected across the country between January 2021

p The emission adjustments for vehicle model years in which Et5 can legally be used are computed based on T50
and T90 as input parameters. The E200/E300 values were computed here for the sake of completeness and academic
interest; we don't expect them to be used in any emission calculations In the public versions of the model.

20

-------
and December 2023.q These were aggregated into a single dataset from which seasonal averages
were produced for each fuel region, with approximately 40% of the samples representing each
summer and winter, and the remainder from shoulder periods (Table 4-5). Since fuel distribution
networks are relatively stable, we chose to combine multiple years of data to increase confidence
in the means. In the current application of this data to years 2021 and later, no attempt is made to
capture year-by-year variations in fuel properties/

Table 4-5. Distribution of retail samples by region and season.



Number of Samples by Seasona

RegionID

Summer

Winter

Shoulder

100000000

1297

1285

708

100010000

606

761

62

178000000

8

22

0

178010000

254

241

8

200000000

851

789

485

270000000

89

46

68

278000000

0

11

11

300000000

567

628

291

370010000

16

0

0

400000000

297

379

105

500000000

598

619

101

578000000

121

154

36

600000000

195

191

88

678000000

16

27

0

700000000

16

14

9

1170011000

664

652

546

1270011000

106

147

1

1370011000

178

160

120

1470011000

212

192

72

1570011000

542

638

288

Totals

6633

6956

2999

a Summer months are May through September, shoulder months are
April and October.

In three regions with zero or very small sample counts (<10) in summer or winter, formulations
were determined as follows:

• Region 178000000 (Beaumont, TX area) summer fuel: RVP level was set at 0.4 psi

q There is additional information on the data collection process at the RFG Survey Association website,
https://www.rfgsa.org/methodology.html.

r The transition to survey data in MOVES5 resulted in higher gasoline sulfur levels in most regions in 2021 and later.
Sulfur levels in prior model versions were based on refinery gate data with assumptions about the sulfur content of
ethanol added downstream. The updated values better reflect the actual sulfur contribution of all additives as well as
any cross-contamination from other products in the distribution system.

21

-------
below the nominal standard of 8.8 psi.s Other properties were estimated by assuming
1.5% butane is added to region 178010000 fuel (7.8 psi) in adjacent counties to boost
RVP by 1 psi.1'22 Distillation parameter values were estimated by averaging regions
100010000 and 578000000, which have similar fuel.

• Region 278000000 (Indiana counties in Louisville, KY area) summer fuel: Indiana
counties use this 8.8 psi fuel while nearby KY counties uses region 1470011000 RFG.
Thus, properties for 278000000 were determined from the KY fuel by assuming addition
of 1.9 vol% butane (adjustment from the RFG RVP to 8.4 psi), with other properties
adjusted accordingly. Distillation parameters were mirrored from region 178000000,
which has similar fuel.

• Region 370010000 (El Paso, TX area) winter fuel: This county was assumed to use the
same fuel as the surrounding area in the winter, so properties were set equal to base
region 300000000.

Since it is focused on regulatory requirements, the survey only measures RVP during summer
months when EPA volatility controls are in place. Therefore, winter RVP values for CY 2021
and later were estimated by reviewing several years of data from the Auto Innovators' North
American Fuel Survey.18 This data shows that winter RVPs are relatively consistent across the
continental U.S. at around 13.5 psi in most areas, with levels about 1 psi lower in California and
up to 1 psi higher in the upper Midwest and Alaska.

Beginning in MOVES3, shoulder season properties were computed as the mean of summer and
winter properties, which is representative of the process of converting tanks and distribution lines
over from one season's fuel to the next. While we have a considerable amount of survey data
from the shoulder season, in nearly all regions the number of samples is significantly less than
for winter and summer seasons. Therefore, a threshold of 100 samples was set, above which the
fuel formulation values would be derived from the survey data, and below which the formulation
would be computed by averaging the summer and winter values. This arrangement resulted in
eight regions with survey properties, and twelve with summer-winter averages. RVP values were
computed by average for all regions since surveys do not collect this parameter outside the
summer season.

A new fuel region (1670011000) was added starting in CY 2024 to accommodate the change to
RFG in the Denver metropolitan area. Since there was no historical data available for this
formulation at the time MOVES5 was being developed, properties were estimated as follows.
For summer, RVP and distillation values were set to the average value observed in other RFG
regions (which fall in a relatively narrow range). Other properties were computed from the
region 578000000 formulation, which had previously been used in these counties, by assuming a
total of 5.8 vol% combined butane and pentane would need be removed to accomplish the

s In earlier versions of MOVES, summer RVP levels in-use were assumed to be at the regulatory limit. An
assessment of the latest survey data shows a median compliance margin of 0.40 psi for areas with RVP > 8 psi, and
0.24 psi for RFG areas. These values have been implemented in MOVES5 for 2021 and later.

4 Adding and removing butanes (and pentanes) is a common way for fuel producers to adjust volatility. The impact
of butane addition or removal on RVP will vary depending on the starting RVP and overall volatility profile of the
fuel. The estimate of 1.5 vol% butane per psi RVP is described in the cited memo.

-------
required reduction in RVP.U- 22 Aromatics and olefins were adjusted upward proportionally by
dividing each by the factor (1-0.058), while sulfur and benzene were left unchanged under the
assumption that the producers would adjust operations to maintain their current compliance
margins on these regulated parameters. Winter properties were assumed to be the same as the
historical 578000000 formulation, and shoulder properties were computed as the average of
summer and winter.

After development of the 2021 and later fuels, complementary E0 and E15 formulations were
generated with zero market share as described in Section 4.2.l.v Two additional updates were
made. One was to reassign all counties in the Kansas City area (in both KS and MO) to base
region 300000000 for CY 2021 and later. Four counties were under a 7.0 psi summer volatility
control program that ended in 2020. This update eliminates region 370000000 for future years.
The other was to represent the end of the RFG program in Maine by moving all RFG counties in
Maine into regionID 100010000 for CY 2022 and later.

Following these updates, Table 4-6 summarizes the assignment of fuelFormulationID (FFID)
values in MOVES5.w Calendar year 2013 and earlier gasolines originally generated for
MOVES2014b have FFID values under 3000. Formulations for 2014-2020 were assigned FFIDs
in bands of 122 values according to their CY and ethanol blend level. For example, El5
formulations in year 2019 fall between 8600 and 8722. New FFIDs representing CY 2021 and
later are shifted upward by adding 150 to the 2020 FFIDs. This scheme leaves gaps to allow
insertion of additional formulations in the future.

Table 4-6. Gasoline FuelFormulationID numbering scheme.

Starting FuelFormulationID

Calendar Year

E10

E15

1990-2013

1000, 2000

2014

3000

3300

3600

2015

4000

4300

4600

2016

5000

5300

5600

2017

6000

6300

6600

2018

7000

7300

7600

2019

8000

8300

8600

2020

9000

9300

9600

2021+

9150

9450

9750

Appendix B presents average gasoline formulation trends over years 1990-2024.

u We assumed reduction of RVP below 6.7 psi would require removing pentanes at a rate of 7.5 vol% per psi RVP.
These figures are discussed in more detail in the cited memo.

v The default fuel supply contains only non-ethanol fuels for Alaska (region 700000000), consistent with their survey
data. No E10 or E15 blends are available for this region.

w FFID values are used in the MOVES FuelSupply, nrFuelSupply, and FuelFonnulation tables.

-------
5. Diesel, CNG, and E85 Fuels

For these fuels, we do not use regulatory compliance data as the source of the fuel properties.
Data sources for each fuel type are discussed in the subsections below.

5.1 Diesel

MOVES uses two fuel properties when adjusting emissions from diesel vehicles: sulfur level
and, for engines 2006 and older, biodiesel (methyl ester) content.14 Sulfur levels vary by calendar
year but are the same across all regions. These values are summarized in Table 5-1.

For biodiesel, the blend level is zero prior to 2011, and then 3.5 vol% for all regions between
2011 and 2020. For 2021 and later, the biodiesel blend level varies by region. Determination of
biodiesel levels is described in more detail in Section 5.1.2 below.

Table 5-1. Onroad diesel sulfur and biodiesel contents in MOVES across all fuel regions.

Calendar Year

Sulfur level, ppm

Biodiesel, vol%

1990

1000

1999-2006

130

2007-2010

2011-2020

3.5

2021+

varies by region

5.1.1 Sulfur Content

Retail surveys conducted by the Alliance for Automotive Innovation18 (referenced above for
gasoline) also produce data for diesel fuel. A review of results from several states suggests there
is very little regional variation, with 10th-90th percentile ranges spanning 4-10 ppm. Nationally,
annual average diesel sulfur levels in this data indicate that a level of 6 ppm is representative of
years 2007 and later (Figure 5-1). Thus, a value of 6 ppm is used in MOVES for CY2007 and
later for all regions (including CA).

-------
• Winter

Summer





















*

•

•

•



•

•

•
•

•
•

. * •



•



Avg =

6 ppm

Alliance for Automotive Innovation

i North American Fuel Survey



2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Figure 5-1. National average diesel sulfur level from market survey data.

5.1.2 Methyl Ester (Biodiesel) Content

For onroad diesel, conventional petroleum diesel (fuelSubtypelD 20) constitutes 100% of the
market share for CY 1990 through 2010. Starting in CY 2011, the fuel supply shifts to 100%
market share of biodiesel blend (fuelSubtypelD 21), with a vol% methyl ester level that varies by
calendar year, as described below. The fuel Formulation table also contains biodiesel blend levels
of 0, 5, and 20 vol%, which users may specify as alternatives.

In MOVES3 and MOVES4, a single national average blend level was used for all regions for CY
2011 and later. This value was computed using biodiesel and transportation distillate
consumption data available from EIA's Monthly Energy Review.2J For MOVES5, this approach
was retained for CY 2011-2020. Figure 5-2 shows the national average blend level trend over
this period, which produces an average of 3.5 vol%. The start year of 2011 was selected because
this was when the national average blend level first surpassed 1 vol%.

25

-------
5%
4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

2010	2012	2014	2016	2018	2020

Figure 5-2. National average biodiesel blend level computed from EIA Monthly
Energy Review data, showing MOVES blend level of 3.5% for CY 2011-2020.

EIA recently expanded their State Energy Data System publications to provide biodiesel and
transportation distillate consumption at the state level going back several years.24 Based on
review of trends in historical volumes, a 5-year average of 2017-2022 was chosen to represent
current blend levels for 2021 and later, as this period has relatively stable blend levels in most
areas. Figure 5-3 illustrates these levels at the state level.

26

-------
Figure 5-3. 2017-2022 average biodiesel blend level by state based on EIA data.

For CY 2021 and later, the MOVES5 fuel supply aggregates this state-level data into region-
specific biodiesel blend levels for the seven gasoline base regions (shown in Table 3-1 and
Figure 3-1) and California. These results are shown in Table 5-2. To implement these regional
variations, eight new fuel formulations were added (25024-25031) that vary in biodiesel content
but have a sulfur level of 6 ppm.

27

-------
Table 5-2. Regional average

)iodiesel blend levels used for CY2021 and later.



Biodiesel

Petroleum Diesel



Base Region

(kbbl/yr)x

(kbbl/yr)

Blend%

1 (East Coast / Caribbean)

15,061

494,396

2.96%

2 (Midwest)

8,510

190,246

4.28%

3 (South)

5,165

128,725

3.86%

4 (North)

4,361

53,354

7.56%

5 (Rocky Mtns, Pacific Northwest)

2,746

90,277

2.95%

6 (AZ, NV, HI)

791

32,400

2.38%

7 (AK)

161

5,744

2.73%

15 (CA)

5,877

78,926

6.93%

U.S. Total

42,671

1,074,070

3.82%

The energy content of biodiesel is set at 42.70 (KJ/g) to represent B3.8 fuel. The energy and
carbon content of the fuels are based on aggregate values that are constant across fuel subtypes
as shown in Table 1-1 and documented in the MOVES GHG and energy report.25

5.2	Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)

MOVES assumes that CNG (fuelSubtypelD 30) used in onroad vehicles has a sulfur content of
7.6 ppm based on a CNG transit bus study documented in the MOVES fuel effects report.14

5.3	High-Level Ethanol Blends (E85)

As described in the Population and Activity technical report, MOVES models a subset of the
vehicle fleet as "flexible fueled vehicles" (FFVs).26 These vehicles may operate on gasoline or
E85 fuel as indicated in the FuelUsageFraction table. The usage fraction represents the fraction
of total fuel used by FFVs that is E85. For CY 2010-2020, we set the E85 usage fraction to
1.78% for all regions based on "Ethanol used in E85" published in Table 17 in AEO2014.11 In
MOVES5, for CY 2021 and later, we revised the fraction upward to 3.1% based on ethanol use
in E85 published in AEO2023 as well as FFV registrations and VMT available through the DOE
Alternative Fuel Data Center.27-28

The MOVES algorithms used to model the emissions from FFVs when they are operating on E85
are described in the MOVES fuel effects report.14 The E85 algorithm uses the sulfur, benzene,
and RVP values stored in the fuelFormulation table, which do not vary by region. The other
property values come from the ElOFuelProperties table, which includes representative E10 fuel

x The volumes shown represent the sum of 5-year average volumes (thousand barrels per year) for each state
included in a region, so that states consuming greater volumes have higher weighting in the region average.
Petroleum diesel excludes the renewable component, so it was added before computing the blend ratio.

28

-------
formulations for every fuel region, CY, and month. The table also stores a national average E10
formulation as RegionID 0, which is used for national scale runs using pre-aggregation in the
advanced features. The national E10 formulation was calculated as an average of the El 0 fuel
formulations assigned to different regions.

E85 fuel properties are summarized in Table 5-3. The sulfur and benzene values for E85
represent blending market gasoline with denatured ethanol.y The RVP values represent typical
summer and winter seasonal targets achieved by addition of butanes or pentanes. The ethanol
content of 74 vol% matches the annual average blend level used by DOE/EIA in their
publications.29

Table 5-3. E85 fuel properties used in emission calculations

or all regions.

E85 Fuel
Formulation ID

Months Applied

RVP
(psi)

Ethanol
(vol%)

Sulfur
(ppm)

Benzene
(vol%)

27001

October... April

10.5

0.16

27002

May... Sept ember

7.7

6. Nonroad Fuel Supply

The nonroad gasoline fuel supply is identical to the onroad fuel supply except that it contains no
fuels with ethanol content over 10.5 vol%.

For nonroad diesel, MOVES includes two types of diesel: nonroad (fuelTypelD 23) and marine
diesel (fuelTypelD 24). The only difference between them is sulfur content prior to 2014, as
shown in Table 6-1. These values represent a walk-down in sulfur to meet regulatory
requirements based on what was known about refining, consumption, and credit trading
patterns.30 The final sulfur level of 6 ppm for both types reflects a merger of onroad and nonroad
refinery products at the end of the phase-in period, thus nonroad fuel attains the sulfur level
observed in onroad fuel. Survey data suggests there is little variation in diesel sulfur levels across
the continental U.S., so the 6 ppm level is applied nationwide to nonroad as in onroad fuel. Note
that MOVES does not model locomotives or commercial marine vessels, so these fuels apply to
railroad support equipment and recreational marine.

Nonroad CNG and liquified petroleum gas (LPG, fuelSubtypelD 40) sulfur levels are 7.6 ppm
for all years, consistent with the onroad CNG sulfur level. Other properties of nonroad fuels are
shown in Table 6-2. Note that fuel density is set at the fuelTypelD level, thus it is fixed across
subtypes (e.g., conventional diesel and biodiesel blend).

y Denatured fuel ethanol is created when ethanol producers add a minimum of 2 vol% of a petroleum component to
their anhydrous ethanol product. The chemical makeup of the petroleum component can vary. The properties used in
MOVES represent a typical denatured ethanol.

-------
able 6-1. Nonroad diesel sulfur content in

MOVES (ppm wt

Calendar Year

Nonroad

Marine

1999 and earlier

2284

2640

2000

2284

2640

2001

2284

2635

2002

2284

2637

2003

2284

2637

2004

2284

2637

2005

2284

2637

2006

2242

2588

2007

1139

1332

2008

351

435

2009

351

435

2010

165

319

2011

32

236

2012

6

124

2013

6

44

2014 and later

6

6

The carbon and energy content values are stored in the MOVES default database like for onroad
modeling, but density values are hard-coded in the nonroad model. Similarly, the nonroad model
uses a hard-coded carbon mass fraction for diesel and gasoline of 0.87.31-32 More information on
the sources of these values is available in the Greenhouse Gas and Energy Consumption Rates
document.33

Table 6-2. Nonroad Fuel Subtypes in MOVES."

SubtypelD
(TypelD)

Description

Carbon
Content
(g/kJ)

Energy
Content
(MJ/kg)

Density
(g/gal)

10(1)

Conventional Gasoline (CG)

0.0196

43.488

6.237

11(1)

Reformulated Gasoline (RFG)

0.0196

42.358

6.237

12(1)

Gasohol (E10)

0.01982

41.696

6.237

13(1)

Gasohol (E8)

0.01982

42.027

6.237

14(1)

Gasohol (E5)

0.01984

42.523

6.237

20 (2)

Conventional Diesel Fuel

0.02022

42.869

7.061

21(2)

Biodiesel Blend

0.02022

42.700

7.061

23 (23)

Nonroad Diesel Fuel

0.02022

42.869

7.050

24 (24)

Marine Diesel Fuel

0.02022

42.869

7.050

40 (4)

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)

0.0161

46.607

4.239

a Energy and carbon content values refer to lower heating values

30

-------
7. Fuel Wizard Factors

Since MOVES2014a, the model software has included a "Fuel Wizard" tool to help users create
realistic gasoline formulations that are not present in the default fuel supply. In the real world,
adjusting one fuel property can produce collateral changes in other properties as a result of
impacts on refining and blending processes. For example, reducing sulfur may affect aromatics
and olefins, and varying RVP may affect other distillation points.

The Fuel Wizard allows a user to input a change in one of three gasoline properties (RVP,
ethanol level, or sulfur level) and the tool estimates secondary fuel property changes using data
from refinery modeling runs. This allows for the full emissions impact of proposed fuel changes
(as part of state or local programs) to be estimated properly, including the subsequent effects of
non-regulated fuel property changes. The Fuel Wizard is currently capable of creating fuels with
ethanol variations between EO and E15, sulfur from 0-30 ppm,z and RVP from 5-14 psi.aa

The Fuel Wizard is used in conjunction with the county data manager in the MOVES graphical
user interface (GUI). More information on when users should use the Fuel Wizard is provided in
technical guidance on the MOVES website.bb

The Fuel Wizard adjustments are stored in the fuelWizardFactors table and are applied in an
additive way (not multiplicative factors). In MOVES2014 (a and b), the adjustments used in the
Fuel Wizard were derived from refinery modeling done as part of the Tier 3 rulemaking analysis
and are the same as those used in developing some portions of the default fuel supply.

In MOVES3, the ethanol blending factors were updated using the results of more recent refinery
modeling work conducted to better understand the effects of biofuel blending on fuel quality and
production cost. For that work, MathPro, Inc., developed and validated a calibration case to
ensure key outputs aligned with observed performance of the refining sector, after which the
control cases were run using petroleum and biofuels market data from EIA and other sources. A
more detailed discussion of the modeling work, including the MathPro project report, and its
outputs is available in the MOVES3 fuel supply documentation.34

Table 7-1 through Table 7-3 show the Fuel Wizard factors for changes resulting from adjusting
ethanol, RVP and sulfur level, respectively. These values are unchanged since MOVES3.

z While the Fuel Wizard has several sulfur ranges with varying factors for secondary impacts on other fuel
parameters, the 0-30 ppm range is the most relevant for current market fuels.

aa The Fuel Wizard doesn't differentiate between CG and RFG and can reasonably be applied to either. The
underlying factors were derived from a range of refinery modeling scenarios, some of which included RFG and
some of which did not. The fuel property changes produced by this tool should be understood as approximate in any
circumstance.

bb MOVES technical guidance is available at https://www.epa.gov/moves/latest-version-motor-vehicle-emission-
simulator-moves#guidance

-------
Table 7-1. Updated Fuel Wizard factors for ethanol addition (additive changes for ETOH change shown).

ETOH Change

RVP

SULF

AROM

OLEF

BENZ

E200

E300

T50

T90

Vol% to Vol%

psi

ppm

Vol%

Vol%

Vol%

Vol%

Vol%

Deg.F

Deg.F

E0 to E10 Winter

0.80

0

-1.7

1.7

-0.01

6.4

0.2

-23.8

-0.63

E0 to E10 Summer

0.90

0

-2.2

1.6

0

7.0

-0.2

-26.0

0.63

E10 to E15 Winter

-0.15

0

-0.85

0.85

-0.01

3.2

0.1

-11.9

-0.32

E10 to E15 Summer

-0.15

0

-1.1

0.80

0

3.5

-0.1

-13.0

0.32

Table 7-2. Adjustment factors for RVP reductions (additive adjustments per psi).

DESCRIPTION

SULF

AROM

OLEF

BENZ

E200

E300

T50

T90



ppm

Vol%

Vol%

Vol%

Vol%

Vol%

Deg.F

Deg.F

1 psi RVP reduction (all seasons)

0

0

0

0

-1.26

-0.50

2.57

2.27

Table 7-3. Adjustment factors for sulfur changes (additive adjustments per ppm).

DESCRIPTION

RVP

AROM

OLEF

BENZ

E200

E300

T50

T90



psi

Vol%

Vol%

Vol%

Vol%

Vol%

Deg.F

Deg.F

1 ppm reduction (summer)

0

-0.03

1.2

0

0

0.05

0

-0.19

1 ppm reduction (winter)

-0.02

-0.14

1.44

0

0.14

0.12

-0.50

-0.51

As with the compliance batch data, the distillation values in the refinery modeling output are in
terms of E200 and E300 and need conversion to T-values. Since the Fuel Wizard uses a single
entry for each parameter, the multi-region T50 correlations described in Section 4.1.2 for
conventional gasoline (CG) were simplified as shown in Figure 7-1, resulting in Equation 7-1.
For the E300 to T90 conversion, Equation 4-5 was used (also derived from CG data).

T50 = 377.34 - 3.7159 x E200	Equation 7-1

For simplicity, the E10 to E15 factors in Fuel Wizard were calculated by taking 50 percent of the
E0 to E10 change except for RVP, where the value was derived from the 2010 API ethanol
blending study as described in Section 4.2.1. Note that the Fuel Wizard is not currently set up to
perform splash blends. Users wanting to model emissions on El5 splash blends, a more likely
scenario for the foreseeable future, should use the formulations available in the default supply, as
explained in Section 4.2.1.

32

-------
Simplified T50 Correlation for Fuel Wizard (CG E10)

240
220
200

^1S0

a>

~o

8 160
140
120

y = -3.7159x +377.34
R2 = 0.8571

'41- ,

100

40

45

50	55	60

E200 (vol%)

65

70

Figure 7-1. Simplified T50 by E200 correlation for use in MOVES Fuel Wizard.

33

-------
8. References

1 USEPA (2015). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Peer Review Handbook. EPA/100/B-15/001. Prepared for
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under the direction of the EPA Peer Review Advisory Group.
Washington, D.C. 20460. October 2015. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2020-
08/documents/epa peer review handbook 4th edition.pdf.

2 USEPA (2017). Fuel Supply Defaults for Regional Fuels and Fuel Wizard Tool in MOVES20IX - Draft Report and
peer-review documents. Record ID 328850. EPA Science Inventory. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann
Arbor, MI. September 2017. https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si public record report.cfm?dirEntrvId=328850.

3 USEPA (2020). Fuel Supply Defaults: Regional Fuels and the Fuel Wizard in MOVES3 - Draft Report and peer-
review documents. Record ID 347139. EPA Science Inventory. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann
Arbor, MI. July 2020. https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si public record report.cfm?dirEntrvId=347139.

4 OPIS/STALSBY (2013). Petroleum Terminal Encyclopedia. OPIS/STALSBY, Wall, NJ.

5 U.S. Energy Information Administration (2024). U.S. Energy Atlas, https://atlas.eia.gov/apps/all-energy-
infrastructure-and-resources/explore.

6 USEPA (2024). Announcements for Gasoline Standards. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI.
https://www.epa.gov/gasoline-standards/announcements-gasoline-standards

7 USEPA (2023). Fuel Supply Defaults: Regional Fuels and the Fuel Wizard in MOVES4. EPA-420-R-23-025.

Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. August 2023.

8 USEPA (2017). Fuel Trends Report: Gasoline 2006-2016. EPA-420-R-17-005. Office of Transportation and Air
Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. October 2017 https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZvPDF.cgi?Dockev=P100T5J6.pdf

9 USEPA (2011). MOVES2010 Fuel Adjustment and Air Toxic Emission Calculation Algorithm - Development and
Results. EPA-420-R-11-009. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. July 2011.
http://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P100BVRJ.pdf

111 U.S. Energy Information Administration (2013). Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (Earlv Release). DOE/EIA-
0383ER. December 2013.

11 U.S. Energy Information Administration (2014). Annual Energy Outlook 2014. DOE/EIA-0383. April 2014.
https ://www .eia. gov/outlooks/archive/aeo 14/

12 USEPA (2000). Control of Air Pollution from New Motor Vehicles: Tier 2 Motor Vehicle Emission Standards and
Gasoline Sulfur Control Requirements. February 2000. 65 FR 6698. https://www. govinfo. gov/content/pkg/FR-2000-
02-10/pdf/00-19.pdf

13 USEPA (2007). Control of Hazardous Air Pollutants from Mobile Sources. February 2007. 72 FR 8428.
https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2007-02-26/pdf/E7-2667.pdf

14 USEPA (2020). Fuel Effects on Exhaust Emissions from Onroad Vehicles in MOVES3. EPA-420-R-20-016.

Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. November 2020.

https://nepis.epa. gov/Exe/ZvPDF.cgi?Dockev=P1010M6C.pdf

15 U.S. Energy Information Administration (2004). Petroleum Supply Annual 2004: Volume 1: Tables 4, 6, 8, 10, 12,
32 and Volume 2: Table 20.

16 USEPA (2007). Control of Hazardous Air Pollutants from Mobile Sources, Final Rule: Regulatory Impact
Analysis, Chapter 6. EPA420-R-07-002. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. February 2007.
https ://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZvPdf.cgi?Dockev=P1004LNN.PDF

17 USEPA (1993). Final Regulatory Impact Assessment for Reformulated Gasoline. EPA-420-R93-017. Office of
Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, MI. December 1993.

18 Alliance for Automotive Innovation (2020). North American Fuel Survey. Washington, DC, 20001. Analyses
incorporate data from 2007-2020. https://www.autosinnovate.org/initiatives/energy-and-environment/fuel-
publications

19 USEPA (2022). Public Data on Gasoline Fuel Quality Properties. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann
Arbor, MI. Accessed April 2022. https://www.epa.gov/fuels-registration-reporting-and-compliance-help/public-data-
gasoline-fuel-aualitv-properties

211 USEPA (2014). Control of Air Pollution from Motor Vehicles: Tier 3 Motor Vehicle Emission and Fuel Standards
Final Rule: Regulatory Impact Analysis. See Chapter 7.1. EPA-420-R-14-005. Office of Transportation and Air
Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. March 2014.

-------
http://nepis.epa. gov/Exe/ZvPDF.cgi/P100ISWM.PDF?Dockev=P100ISWM.PDF

21 American Petroleum Institute (2010). Determination of the Potential Property Ranges ofMid-Level Ethanol
Blends, Final Report. April 2010. https://www.api.org/~/media/files/policv/fuels-and-renewables/2016-oct-rfs/the-
truth-about-el5/el0-blending-studv-final-report.pdf

22 USEPA (2001). Memo from Lester Wyborny dated October 22, 2001, entitled "Cost Estimates of Long-Term
Options for Addressing Boutique Fuels'" submitted to public docket in support of EPA draft report entitled "Study of
Unique Gasoline Fuel Blends (Boutique Fuels), Effects on Fuel Supply and Distribution and Potential
Improvements". Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. October 2001.

23 U.S. Energy Information Administration (2024). Monthly Energy Review: Tables 3.7c and 10.4. March 2024
edition. https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/montlilY/pdf/mer.pdf

24 U.S. Energy Information Administration (2023). State Energy Data System. U.S. Energy Information
Administration. Washington, D.C. June 2023. https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/seds-data-complete.php?sid=US

25 USEPA (2024). Greenhouse Gas and Energy Consumption Rates for Onroad Vehicles in MOVES5. EPA-420-R-
24-018. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. November 2024.
https://www.epa.gov/moves/moves-onroad-teclinical-reports

26 USEPA (2024). Population and Activity of Onroad Vehicles in MOVES5. EPA-420-R-24-019. Office of
Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. November 2024. https://www.epa.gov/moves/moves-onroad-
teclinical-reports

27 U.S. Department of Energy (2024). Vehicle Registrations by Count. Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable
Energy, Washington, D.C. Updated February 2024. https://afdc.energv.gov/veliicle-registration

28 U.S. Department of Energy (2024). Average Annual Fuel Use by Vehicle Type. Office of Energy Efficiency &
Renewable Energy, Washington. D.C. Updated February 2024. https://afdc.energv.gov/data/10308

29 U.S. Energy Information Administration (2023). Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2023: Liquid Fuels
Market Module. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. March 2023.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/LFMM Assumptions.pdf

311 U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, Title 40, Part 80, Subpart I: Motor Vehicle Diesel Fuel; Nonroad, Locomotive,
and Marine Diesel Fuel and ECA Marine Fuel.

31 USEPA (2010). Exhaust Emission Factors for Nonroad Engine Modeling—Spark-Ignition (NR-OlOf. EPA-420-
R-10-019. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. July 2010.

https://nepis.epa. gov/Exe/ZvPDF.cgi?Dockev=P10081YF.pdf

32 USEPA (2018). Exhaust and Crankcase Emission Factors for Nonroad Compression-Ignition Engines in
MOVES2014b. EPA-420-R-18-009. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. July 2018.
https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZvPDF.cgi?Dockev=P100UXEN.pdf

33 USEPA (2024). Greenhouse Gas and Energy Consumption Rates for Onroad Vehicles in MOVES5. EPA-420-R-
24-xxx. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI.

34 USEPA (2021). Fuel Supply Defaults: Regional Fuels and the Fuel Wizard in MOVES3. EPA-420-R-21-006.
Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ann Arbor, MI. March 2021.
https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZvPDF.cgi?Dockev=P10119R7.pdf

-------
Appendix A: MOVES Fuel Region Maps

This appendix presents maps of summertime MOVES fuel regions by county. Puerto Rico and U.S.
Virgin Islands aren't shown but have the same formulation as base region 1 (regionID = 100000000) in
all years. While RVPs are generally higher in winter than summer, the MOVES regionID values are
identical for both seasons. The map for 2023 is identical to 2022, and thus is omitted. Maps for 2025 and
later are identical to 2024.

36

-------
1990-July

-------
1999-July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)



100000000



400000000



100010000

¦

500000000

¦

178000000



578000000



178010000



600000000

¦

200000000



678000000



270000000

¦

700000000

z

27800000C
278010000

¦

1170011000
1270011000



300000000



1370011000

¦

370000000



1470011000

~

370010000

¦

1570011000

-------
2000 - July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)



100000000



400000000



100010000

¦

500000000

¦

178000000



578000000



178010000



600000000

¦

200000000



678000000



270000000

¦

700000000

z

27800000C
278010000

¦

1170011000
1270011000



300000000



1370011000

¦

370000000



1470011000

~

370010000

¦

1570011000

-------
2001 - July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)



100000000



400000000



100010000

¦

500000000

¦

178000000



578000000



178010000



600000000

¦

200000000



678000000



270000000

¦

700000000

z

27800000C
278010000

¦

1170011000
1270011000



300000000



1370011000

¦

370000000



1470011000

~

370010000

¦

1570011000

-------
2002 - July



Fuel

~
¦

¦

~

Regions (fuelRegionID)

100000000	~ 400000000

100010000	500000000

170000000	578000000

178000000	600000000

178010000	678000000

200000000	700000000

270000000	1170011000

278000000	m| 1270011000

278010000	m 1370011000

300000000	1470011000

370000000	1570011000
370010000

-------
2003 - July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
~ 100000000 ~ 400000000

-------
2004 - July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
~ 100000000 ~ 400000000

-------
2005 - July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
~ 100000000 ~ 400000000

-------
2006 - July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
~ 100000000 ~ 400000000

-------
2007 - July

Fuel

~
¦

¦

~

Regions (fuelRegionID)

100000000	~ 400000000

100010000	500000000

170000000	578000000

178000000	600000000

178010000	678000000

200000000	700000000

270000000	1170011000

278000000	m| 1270011000

278010000	m 1370011000

300000000	H 1470011000

370000000	1570011000
370010000

-------
2008 - July

Fuel

~
¦

¦

~

Regions (fuelRegionID)

100000000	~ 400000000

100010000	500000000

170000000	578000000

178000000	600000000

178010000	678000000

200000000	700000000

270000000	1170011000

278000000	m| 1270011000

278010000	m 1370011000

300000000	H 1470011000

370000000	1570011000
370010000

-------
2009 - July

Fuel

~
¦

¦

~

Regions (fuelRegionID)

100000000	~ 400000000

100010000	500000000

170000000	578000000

178000000	600000000

178010000	678000000

200000000	700000000

270000000	1170011000

278000000	m| 1270011000

278010000	m 1370011000

300000000	H 1470011000

370000000	1570011000
370010000

-------
2010-July



Fuel

~
¦

¦

~

Regions (fuelRegionID)

100000000	~ 400000000

100010000	500000000

170000000	578000000

178000000	600000000

178010000	678000000

200000000	700000000

270000000	1170011000

278000000	m| 1270011000

278010000	m 1370011000

300000000	1470011000

370000000	1570011000
370010000

-------
2011 - July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)





100000000



400000000

¦

100010000

¦

500000000



170000000



578000000

¦

178000000

¦

600000000

~

178010000



678000000

¦

200000000



700000000

¦

270000000

¦

1170011000

=

278010000

¦

~

1370011000



300000000



1470011000

¦

370000000

¦

1570011000

~

370010000

-------
2012-July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)





100000000



400000000

¦

100010000

¦

500000000



170000000



578000000

¦

178000000

¦

600000000

~

178010000



678000000

¦

200000000



700000000

¦

270000000

¦

1170011000

=

278010000

¦

~

1370011000



300000000



1470011000

¦

370000000

¦

1570011000

~

370010000

-------
2013-July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)



100000000



400000000

¦

100010000

¦

500000000



170000000



578000000

¦

178000000

¦

600000000

~

178010000



678000000

¦

200000000



700000000

¦

270000000

¦

1170011000

=

278010000

¦

~

1370011000



300000000



1470011000

¦

370000000

¦

1570011000

~

370010000

-------
2014-July

U>



Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
~ 100000000 ~ 400000000

100010000 im 500000000
170000000 m 578000000
178000000	600000000

¦

~ 178010000	678000000

| 200000000	700000000

J 270000000	1170011000

11 278000000	m| 1270011000

278010000	¦ 1370011000

300000000	m 1470011000

370000000	1570011000
370010000

~

-------
2015-July

-------
2016-July





Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)



100000000



400000000



100010000

¦

500000000

¦

178000000



578000000



178010000



600000000

¦

200000000



678000000



270000000

¦

700000000

z

27800000C
278010000

¦

1170011000
1270011000



300000000



1370011000

¦

370000000



1470011000

~

370010000

¦

1570011000

-------
2017-July

On



Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
~ 100000000 ~ 400000000

~

100010000	500000000

178000000	578000000

178010000	600000000

200000000	678000000
270000000 m 700000000

278000000	1170011000
278010000 m 1270011000
300000000 m 1370011000
370000000 ||^~| 1470011000

370010000	1570011000

~

-------
2018-July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)



100000000



400000000



100010000

¦

500000000

¦

178000000



578000000



178010000



600000000

¦

200000000



678000000



270000000

¦

700000000

z

27800000C
278010000

¦

1170011000
1270011000



300000000



1370011000

¦

370000000



1470011000

~

370010000

¦

1570011000

-------
2019-July

00

~zr^~~z

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
~ 100000000 m 500000000

¦

100010000	578000000

178000000	600000000

178010000	678000000

200000000	700000000

270000000	1170011000
278000000 m| 1270011000
300000000 m| 1370011000
370000000 m| 1470011000

370010000	1570011000
400000000

-------
2020 - July

vo

~zr^~~z

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
~ 100000000 m 500000000

¦

100010000	578000000

178000000	600000000

178010000	678000000

200000000	700000000

270000000	1170011000
278000000 m| 1270011000
300000000 m| 1370011000
370000000 m| 1470011000

370010000	1570011000
400000000

-------
2021 - July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
~ 100000000
I 100010000
I 178000000
178010000
| 200000000
270000000
j] 278000000
300000000
370010000
400000000
| 500000000
| 578000000
| 600000000
678000000
| 700000000
1170011000
J 1270011000
^ 1370011000
^ 1470011000
¦ 1570011000

-------
2022 - July

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
100000000
I 100010000





178000000
178010000
200000000
270000000
278000000
300000000
370010000
400000000
500000000
578000000
600000000
678000000
700000000
1170011000
1270011000
1370011000
1470011000
1570011000

-------
2024 - July

On
to

R+vtrv

hws;

Fuel Regions (fuelRegionID)
| 100000000	578000000

I 100010000 600000000
J 178000000	678000000

~ 178010000 m 700000000
| 200000000 1170011000
^1 270000000 1270011000
3 278000000 m 1370011000
300000000 1470011000
370010000 |[ 1570011000
1000

500000000

400000000 ~ 1670011(

-------
Appendix B: Gasoline Formulation Trends in MOVES, 2000-2024

This plot series shows average fuel property values across all E10 fuel formulations by calendar year and season
as represented in the default fuel supply (includes all octane grades weighted by sales volume).

12

10

8

10.0
9.9
9.8
9.7

11
10

9
8
7

60
55
50
45

220
200
180
160

RVP (psi)

ETOHVolume (vol%)

olefin Con terit (vol%)

e200 (vol%)

200
100
0

27.5
25.0
22.5
20.0

sulfurLevel (ppm)

aromaticContent (vol%)



1.1 -

0.9
0.7

benzeneConlent (vol%)

	

T50 (deg.F)





88
86
84
82

340
330
320
310

e300 (vol%)

T90 (deg.F)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Season — April+Oct May-Sep — Nov-March

63

-------
Appendix C: Comparison of MOVES5 and MOVES4 Fuel Property
Values

The tables below compare MOVES5 to MOVES4 fuel property values by region and season for years 2021 and
later. Each number listed here is the MOVES5 value minus the MOVES4 value. The upper table represents
summer formulations and the lower winter. Color shading highlights the relative magnitude of changes. For
example, many regions now have RVPs lower in summer but higher in winter.

RegionID

RVP

sulfur

ETOH

aromatics

olefins

benzene

e200

e300

T50

T90

100000000

-0.38

5.87

-0.17

-2.95

-1.16

-0.29

7.46

1.14

-40.68

-3.42

100010000

-0.35

5.28

-0.47

-0.93

-2.07

-0.27

4.90

2.69

-28.10

-11.42

178000000

-0.40

4.51

-0.41

-1.95

2.05

-0.45

6.72

2.44

-36.78

-10.54

178010000

-0.40

4.68

-0.26

-1.62

2.23

-0.44

3.70

0.15

-21.90

-1.46

200000000

-0.42

3.30

-0.14

-2.31

-0.16

-0.03

7.90

1.26

-44.43

-3.92

270000000

-0.22

1.88

-0.30

0.69

-0.44

0.18

4.59

-0.41

-25.85

2.54

278000000

-0.40

2.391

-0.39

-2.57

-2.37

0.10

7.42

3.43

-40.80

-14.69

300000000

-0.47

4.19

-0.27

-3.16

-1.74

0.04

7.92

2.19

-43.57

-8.24

370010000

-0.28

-0.991

-0.45

3.43

-3.80

0.37

0.79

1.84

-5.56

-15.27

400000000

-0.37

7.18

-0.46

-6.18

3.67

-0.05

6.12

-1.40

-34.99

7.61

500000000

-0.79

4.36

-0.20

-0.51

-1.28

-0.28

6.90

-1.36

-36.30

6.21

578000000

-0.32

2.49

-0.15

-0.08

-0.79

-0.10

7.97

-1.12

-42.25

4.31

600000000

-0.73

2.41

-0.31

0.07

0.89

0.08

10.01

3.33

-52.80

-14.45

678000000

-0.74

-2.95

-0.34

-1.14

-4.30

-0.19

0.19

-0.14

-0.74

-4.29

700000000

0.83

-1.21

0.00

-0.22

1.03

0.08

7.22

0.29

-15.59

0.85

1170011000

0.29

2.76

-0.26

4.84

-3.64

0.12

4.88

3.44

-16.98

-17.72

1270011000

0.15

6.39

-0.23

1.31

-2.50

-0.08

4.74

1.05

-16.91

-4.02

1370011000

0.15

3.96

-0.23

5.03

-1.39

0.13

2.16

-0.94

-6.99

3.47

1470011000

0.16

2.83

-0.21

4.14

-0.04

0.33

1.68

-2.81

-6.00

13.40

1570011000

-0.07

2.67

0.02

-4.92

3.49

-0.04

-1.11

-0.37

3.95

0.04

RegionID

RVP

sulfur

ETOH

aromatics

olefins

benzene

e200

e300

T50

T90

100000000

1.00

4.22

0.02

-0.23

-0.59

-0.26

7.20

1.99

-26.70

-7.12

100010000

1.00

4.43

-0.16

-1.06

-0.32

-0.22

8.12

3.62

-26.93

-15.25

178000000

1.00

2.03

0.01

2.41

-2.79

-0.36

6.86

0.63

-27.29

-4.17

178010000

1.00

4.82

-0.05

-1.18

2.21

-0.36

5.82

0.92

-24.57

-2.75

200000000

0.70

1.85

0.02

-1.27

-0.71

-0.06

9.43

1.80

-34.61

-6.28

270000000

0.70

-0.32

0.05

-3.51

-0.93

0.06

12.59

0.92

-39.33

0.48

278000000

0.70

-0.02

0.09

1.15

-2.06

-0.35

9.15

1.52

-34.73

-5.78

300000000

2.00

2.07

-0.13

-2.26

-1.50

0.00

9.35

3.24

-39.55

-13.66

370010000

2.00

2.07

-0.13

-2.26

-1.50

0.00

9.35

3.24

-39.55

-13.66

400000000

1.00

2.85

-0.37

-5.20

1.91

-0.07

7.26

-2.64

-22.13

12.71

500000000

2.60

2.31

-0.13

-1.60

-1.46

-0.24

9.74

0.52

-41.22

-2.01

578000000

3.60

1.62

-0.06

-1.68

-0.72

-0.21

10.04

0.65

-41.91

-3.11

600000000

3.00

2.53

-0.04

0.51

1.74

0.07

11.08

4.38

-56.33

-18.83

678000000

1.89

-3.61

-0.05

0.21

-2.01

-0.19

-0.54

-0.77

-0.16

2.06

700000000

0.00

-1.73

0.00

0.02

-0.30

-0.04

5.42

-0.25

-12.17

4.05

1170011000

0.30

3.24

-0.02

0.35

-3.09

0.00

2.66

1.99

-1.40

-8.71

1270011000

0.30

3.20

0.05

-0.59

-4.36

-0.11

2.21

0.23

-0.82

0.51

1370011000

1.70

4.42

0.01

1.79

-1.12

0.08

2.37

-0.23

0.72

3.23

1470011000

1.00

2.41

0.10

0.47

0.01

0.08

1.30

-0.46

-0.41

5.74

1570011000

-0.35

2.18

-0.29

-2.32

3.31

-0.05

-5.71

-0.71

9.39

2.33

64

-------
The tables below show the percent change in fuel property values for MOVES5 relative to MOVES4 by region
and season for years 2021 and later. The upper table represents summer formulations and the lower winter. Color
shading highlights the relative magnitude of the changes above and below zero percent.

RegionID

RVP

sulfur

ETOH

aromatics

olefins

benzene

e200

e300

T50

T90

100000000

-4%

82%

-2%

-13%

-12%

-29%

15%

1%

-20%

-1%

100010000

-4%

74%

-5%

-4%

-22%

-28%

10%

3%

-13%

-4%

178000000

-5%

63%

-4%

-8%

22%

-46%

14%

3%

-17%

-3%

178010000

-5%

66%

-3%

-7%

24%

-45%

8%

0%

-10%

0%

200000000

-4%

46%

-1%

-10%

-2%

-4%

16%

1%

-21%

-1%

270000000

-3%

26%

-3%

3%

-6%

25%

10%

0%

-12%

1%

278000000

-5%

33%

-4%

-11%

-32%

15%

16%

4%

-18%

-4%

300000000

-5%

59%

-3%

-14%

-17%

5%

17%

3%

-21%

-3%

370010000

-4%

-14%

-4%

15%

-38%

53%

2%

2%

-3%

-5%

400000000

-4%

100%

-5%

-24%

66%

-6%

12%

-2%

-17%

2%

500000000

-8%

61%

-2%

-2%

-14%

-29%

14%

-2%

-17%

2%

578000000

-4%

35%

-2%

0%

-8%

-11%

17%

-1%

-19%

1%

600000000

-7%

34%

-3%

0%

11%

12%

23%

4%

-22%

-4%

678000000

-8%

-41%

-3%

-4%

-51%

-28%

0%

0%

0%

-1%

700000000

7%

-20%

0%

-1%

94%

6%

13%

0%

-8%

0%

1170011000

4%

38%

-3%

27%

-29%

20%

11%

4%

-8%

-5%

1270011000

2%

87%

-2%

7%

-20%

-14%

11%

1%

-8%

-1%

1370011000

2%

54%

-2%

36%

-12%

28%

5%

-1%

-3%

1%

1470011000

2%

41%

-2%

25%

-1%

67%

4%

-3%

-3%

4%

1570011000

-1%

89%

0%

-21%

145%

-7%

-2%

0%

2%

0%























RegionID

RVP

sulfur

ETOH

aromatics

olefins

benzene

e200

e300

T50

T90

100000000

8%

52%

0%

-1%

-7%

-30%

14%

2%

-15%

-2%

100010000

8%

55%

-2%

-6%

-4%

-26%

15%

4%

-15%

-5%

178000000

8%

25%

0%

13%

-35%

-42%

13%

1%

-15%

-1%

178010000

8%

59%

0%

-6%

28%

-42%

11%

1%

-13%

-1%

200000000

5%

23%

0%

-7%

-11%

-9%

18%

2%

-18%

-2%

270000000

5%

-4%

1%

-18%

-14%

10%

24%

1%

-21%

0%

278000000

5%

0%

1%

6%

-31%

-56%

18%

2%

-18%

-2%

300000000

17%

25%

-1%

-11%

-16%

0%

19%

4%

-20%

-4%

370010000

17%

25%

-1%

-11%

-16%

0%

19%

4%

-20%

-4%

400000000

8%

35%

-4%

-23%

32%

-10%

14%

-3%

-12%

4%

500000000

24%

28%

-1%

-8%

-17%

-27%

19%

1%

-21%

-1%

578000000

33%

20%

-1%

-8%

-8%

-24%

20%

1%

-21%

-1%

600000000

29%

33%

0%

2%

23%

10%

25%

5%

-25%

-6%

678000000

16%

-47%

0%

1%

-34%

-29%

-1%

-1%

0%

1%

700000000

0%

-29%

0%

0%

-33%

-3%

10%

0%

-7%

2%

1170011000

2%

37%

0%

2%

-26%

-1%

5%

2%

-1%

-3%

1270011000

2%

37%

1%

-4%

-37%

-17%

4%

0%

-1%

0%

1370011000

14%

51%

0%

12%

-11%

18%

4%

0%

0%

1%

1470011000

7%

28%

1%

3%

0%

16%

2%

-1%

0%

2%

1570011000

-3%

54%

-3%

-12%

179%

-8%

-9%

-1%

6%

1%

65

-------