Greenhouse Gas and Energy Consumption Rates for Onroad Vehicles in MOVES5 oEPA United States Environmental Protection Agency ------- Greenhouse Gas and Energy Consumption Rates for Onroad Vehicles in MOVES5 Assessment and Standards Division Office of Transportation and Air Quality U.S. Environmental Protection Agency NOTICE This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments. United States Environmental Protection ^1 Agency EPA-420-R-24-018 November 2024 ------- Contents 1 Introduction 5 2 Energy Rates 7 2.1 Light-Duty Vehicles 7 2.1.1 Light-Duty GHG and CAFE Regulations 7 2.1.2 Light-Duty Running Energy Rates for Internal Combustion Engines 12 2.1.3 Light-Duty Running Energy Rates for Electric Vehicles 16 2.1.4 Light-Duty Start Energy Rates 18 2.2 Heavy-Duty Vehicles 21 2.2.1 Heavy-Duty Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Energy Rates 22 2.2.2 Hotelling Shore Power Energy Consumption 24 3 Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Emission Rates 25 3.1 Gasoline Vehicles 25 3.2 Diesel Vehicles 28 3.2.1 Light-Duty Diesel 28 3.2.2 Heavy-Duty Diesel 29 3.3 Alternative-Fueled Vehicles 33 4 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emission Rates 34 4.1 Carbon Dioxide Calculations 34 4.2 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Emissions 35 5 Fuel Consumption Calculations 36 Appendices 37 Appendix A. Timeline of Energy and GHG emissions in MOVES 37 Appendix B. Emission Control Technology Phase-In used for N2O Emission Rate Calculations 40 Appendix C. EV ALPHA Parameters and Results 44 6 References 47 2 ------- List of Acronyms ABT emissions averaging, banking and trading program A/C Air Conditioning ALPHA Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis APU auxiliary power units BEV battery electric vehicle bhp brake horsepower BTU British Thermal Unit CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy CARB California Air Resources Board CBD Central Business District CFR Code of Federal Regulations ch4 methane CNG Compressed Natural Gas CO carbon monoxide C02 carbon dioxide CRC Coordinating Research Council DB database DOE U.S. Department of Energy DPF Diesel Particulate Filter EMFAC CARB emissions factors model EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EER Energy Efficiency Ratio FCEV Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle FHWA Federal Highway Administration FTP Federal Test Procedure g grams GHG Greenhouse Gases g/mi Grams per mile GVWR Gross Vehicle Weight Rating GWP Global Warming Potential THC Total Hydrocarbons HD Heavy-Duty HDIU Heavy-Duty Diesel In-Use HDT Heavy-Duty Truck HFC Hydrofluorocarbon HHD Heavy-Heavy-Duty Class 8 Trucks (GVWR > 33,000 lbs) HHDD Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel HP horsepower HPMS Highway Performance Monitoring System hr hour HV heating value H2O water ICE Internal Combustion Engine I/M Inspection and Maintenance program ------- kJ Kilojoules kW Kilowatt LD Light-Duty LHD Light-Heavy-Duty LHD2b3 Light-Heavy-Duty Class 2b and 3 Truck (8,500 < GVWR < 14,000 lbs) LHD45 Light Heavy-Duty Class 4 or 5 Truck (14,000 < GVWR < 19,500 lbs) LHDDT Light Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck MC Motorcycle MDPV Medium-Duty Passenger Vehicle MHD Medium-Heavy-Duty Class 6 and 7 Trucks (19,500 < GVWR < 33,000 lbs) M0BILE6 EPA Highway Vehicle Emission Factor Model, Version 6 MOVES Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator Model MY model year MYG model year group NREL National Renewal Energy Laboratory N20 nitrous oxide OBD On-Board Diagnostics OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer PERE Physical Emission Rate Estimator SCR selective catalytic reduction STP scaled tractive power UDDS Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule VIN Vehicle Identification Number VIUS Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled VSP vehicle specific power ------- 1 Introduction This report describes the energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) rates in MOVES and documents the data sources and analyses we used to develop the energy and greenhouse gas emission rates. A timeline of the development of the energy and greenhouse gas emission rates in MOVES is presented in Appendix A. The content of this report intersects with several other MOVES technical reports, including: Exhaust Emission Rates for Heavy-Duty Onroad Vehicles in MOVES5,1 referred to here as the HD Exhaust Report. Energy consumption rates for heavy-duty conventional vehicles are detailed in this report. It also describes the total hydrocarbon emissions used to estimate methane emissions. Emission Adjustments for Onroad Vehicles in MOVES5,2 referred to here as the Emission Adjustments Report. This report describes adjustments to account for charging efficiency, battery deterioration, cabin temperature control and the modeling of fleet- averaging emission standards for CO2 and energy such that electric vehicle fractions impact the effective energy consumption rates for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Exhaust Emission Rates for Light-Duty Onroad Vehicles in MOVES5,3 referred to here as the LD Exhaust Report. This report describes the total hydrocarbon emissions used to estimate methane emissions. Fuel Supply Defaults: Regional Fuels and the Fuel Wizard in MOVES5,4 referred to here as the Fuel Supply Report. Population and Activity of Onroad Vehicles in MOVES5,5 referred to here as the Population and Activity Report. This report explains MOVES default vehicle activity and vehicle populations, including age distributions and fuel mix. MOVES default electric vehicle fractions are explained in this report. Speciation of Total Organic Gas and Particulate Matter Emissions from Onroad Vehicles in MOVES5,6 referred to here as the Onroad Speciation Report. This report describes how MOVES estimates methane emissions. All MOVES onroad technical reports can be accessed from the MOVES webpage.7 MOVES accounts for federal regulations on fuel consumption and GHG emissions from onroad vehicles. The most recent of these are listed below: Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for model years 2012 through 2016 (LD GHG Phase l)8 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles (HD GHG Phase l)9 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (LD GHG Phase 2)10 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and VehiclesPhase 2 Rule (HD GHG Phase 2)11 Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks12 Revised 2023 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards (LD GHG 2023-2026)13 5 ------- Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles (LMDV2027)14 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles - Phase 3 (HD GHG Phase 3)15 MOVES5 is the first MOVES version to account for LMDV2027 and HD GHG Phase 3. Both rules are performance-based vehicle emissions standards covering model years 2027 and later. They do not mandate the sales of electric vehicles, but we model manufacturers will comply with them by selling a significant portion of electric vehicles. This report is divided into four major sections: 1. Energy Rates 2. Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Emission Rates 3. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emission Rates 4. Fuel Consumption Calculations The energy rates for light-duty vehicles are based on the work conducted for MOVES2004,16 however, they have been significantly updated in subsequent versions of MOVES. This report documents the changes in energy rates that were made between MOVES2010 and current versions of MOVES. We point the reader to the earlier reports that document the development of the energy rates prior to MOVES2010.16 17 And, as noted above, energy rates for heavy-duty vehicles are described in the HD Exhaust Report.1 The carbon dioxide (CO2) emission rates in MOVES are calculated based on energy consumption. The values used to convert energy consumption to CO2 emissions are presented in this report in addition to the equation and values used to calculate carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2) emissions. The methods and data used to calculate nonroad fuel consumption and CO2 emission rates for nonroad equipment are documented in the nonroad emission rate reports Exhaust and Crankcase Emissions Factors for Nonroad Compression-Ignition Engines and Exhaust Emission Factors for Nonroad Engine Modeling - Spark Ignition.18 We also present the values that MOVES uses to calculate volumetric fuel consumption (gallons). MOVES currently reports fuel usage in terms of energy consumption (e.g., kilojoules), but calculates gallons for use in internal calculators as well. The values are presented in this report so that users can calculate fuel volumes using MOVES output in a manner consistent with the MOVES calculators. Lastly, although methane is considered one of the major greenhouse gases, the development of methane emission rates is not documented in this report. Methane emissions in MOVES are calculated as a fraction of total hydrocarbons. Methane fractions and total hydrocarbon emission rates are documented in the Onroad Speciation Report,6 LD Exhaust Report,3 and HD Exhaust Report.1 6 ------- 2 Energy Rates In MOVES, energy consumption rates (energy use per time) are recorded in the emissionRate table by fuel type, regulatory class, model year group, emission process, and operating mode. For heavy-duty vehicles, further adjustments are recorded by source type, regulatory class, fuel type, and model year in the emissionRateAdjustment table. Additional adjustments to energy consumption are described in the Emission Adjustments Report.2 The first full suite of energy rates, released in MOVES2004, were developed by binning second- by-second (1 Hz) data from test programs, including 16 EPA-sponsored test programs and multiple non-EPA test programs. Details about the data and programs are documented in MOVES2004 Energy and Emission Inputs report16. Since then, the energy rates in MOVES have been updated to account for several GHG and Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations. In this chapter, we discuss the energy rates for both light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles. In each section, relevant regulations are briefly introduced and the modeling approaches used to incorporate them into MOVES are explained or referenced. 2.1 Light-Duty Vehicles In MOVES, light-duty vehicles include passenger cars, passenger trucks, and light commercial trucks. For details about corresponding vehicle weights and HPMS classes, refer to the Population and Activity Report.5 For information about operating modes and vehicle-specific power (VSP) bins, see the LD Exhaust Report.3 2.1.1 Light-Duty GHG and CAFE Regulations Several regulations are relevant for LD energy consumption rats in MOVES. These are discussed in the sections below. 2.1.1.1 LD GHG Rule Phase 1 and Phase 2 The Light Duty GHG Phase 1 rule covers model years 2012 through 2016, while the Phase 2 rule covers model years 2017 through 2025. Both Phase 1 and 2 rules apply to passenger cars and light trucks. A summary of source type and regulatory class combination that are covered under LD GHG rules is in Table 2-1. Projected fleet-average emission targets are shown in Table 2-2 and Table 2-3. 7 ------- Table 2-1 A summary of source type and regulatory class combinations covered under LP GHG rules Source Type (sourceTypelD) Regulatory Class (regClassID) passenger cars (21) Light-duty vehicles (LDV) (20) passenger trucks (31) Light-duty Trucks (LDT) (30), Light Heavy-duty Class 2b and 3 Trucks (LHD2b3) (41)a light commercial trucks (32) LDT (30), LHD2b3 (41)a Table 2-2 Projected fleet-wide emissions compliance levels under the footprint-based CO2 standards (g/mi) - LD GHG Phase 1 LD Vehicle Group Model Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Passenger Cars 263 256 247 236 225 Light Trucks 346 337 326 312 298 Combined Cars and Trucks 295 286 276 263 250 Table 2-3 Projected fleet-wide emissions compliance levels under the footprint-based CO2 standards (g/mi) - LD GHG Phase 2 LD Vehicle Model Year Group 2016 base 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Passenger Cars 225 212 202 191 182 172 164 157 150 143 Light Trucks 298 295 285 277 269 249 237 225 214 203 Combined Cars and Trucks 250 243 232 222 213 199 190 180 171 163 The footprint-based methodology was used for both LD GHG Phase 1 and Phase 2 rules to project fleet average emissions. Each vehicle has a projected CO2 emission rate based on its footprint,13 19 represented by footprint curves. Figure 2-1 is an example of the footprint curve for passenger cars under the LD GHG Phase 2 rule. The footprint-based CO2 emission rates were then weighted by the historical and projected vehicle sales to generate the fleet average emissions shown in Table 2-2 and Table 2-3. a While the LD GHG and SAFE rules apply to the Medium-Duty Passenger Vehicles portion of LHD2b3 vehicles (GVWR 8,500 to 14,000 lbs), most LHD2b3 vehicles are covered by HD GHG rules. Thus, until MY 2027, MOVES models the entire LHD2b3 class under the HD GHG rules as described in the HD section. b "Footprint" refers to the size of the vehicle, specifically, the product of wheelbase times average track width (the area defined by where the centers of the tires touch the ground) as explained in the 2020 EPA Automotive Trends report. 8 ------- Figure 2-1. CO2 (g/mile) footprint curves for passenger cars Air conditioning (A/C) systems contribute to vehicle GHG emissions in two ways. First, when the compressor pumps the refrigerant around the system loop, it adds an extra load to the powertrain, increasing energy consumption and tailpipe CO2 emissions. Second, they contribute directly to GHG emissions via refrigerant leakage (for example, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) leakage). Accordingly, there are two types of A/C credits in the LD GHG rules - A/C efficiency credits and A/C refrigerant credits (aka. leakage credits). Both types of credits are used when converting projected CO2 compliance target to projected 2-cycle CO2. Projected CO2 compliance targets represent the curve standard numbers, while projected 2-cycle CO2 represent the actual standards that manufactures need to comply with. The projected 2-cycle CO2 is the sum of projected CO2 compliance targets, incentives, and credits, where incentives include advanced technology multipliers and intermediate volume provisions and credits include off cycle credit, A/C refrigerant credit, and A/C efficiency credit. Table 2-4 shows the values for projected CO2 compliance targets, incentives, credits, and projected 2-cycle CO2 emissions for passenger cars for model years 2016 to 2025. There are similar tables for passenger trucks and the combined passenger cars and trucks fleet in the LD GHG Phase 1 and 2 rules. 9 ------- Table 2-4 Projections for fleetwide tailpipe emissions compliance with CO2 standards for passenger cars (g/mile) - LP GHG Phase 2 i Model Projected Incentives Projected Credits Projected Year C02 Advanced Intermediate Achieved Off- A/C A/C 2-cycle compliance Technology Volume C02 cycle Refrigerant Efficiencv C02 target Multiplier Provisions Credit 2016 225 0 0 225 0.4 5.4 4.8 235 base 2017 212 0.6 0.1 213 0.5 7.8 5.0 226 2018 202 1.1 0.3 203 0.6 9.3 5.0 218 2019 191 1.6 0.1 193 0.7 10.8 5.0 210 2020 182 1.5 0.1 183 0.8 12.3 5.0 201 2021 172 1.2 0 173 0.8 13.8 5.0 193 2022 164 0 0 164 0.9 13.8 5.0 184 2023 157 0 0 157 1.0 13.8 5.0 177 2024 150 0 0 150 1.1 13.8 5.0 170 2025 143 0 0 143 1.4 13.8 5.0 163 MOVES uses the real-world tailpipe CO2 defined in LD GHG rule Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA)20 to represent on-road fleet average CO2 emissions (see Table 2-5). The real-world tailpipe CO2 was calculated using Equation 2-1 shown below. The value 1.25 multiplying factor in Equation 2-1 is derived from the 20% gap between test (NHTSA's CAFE 2-Cycle test including the FTP and HWFET) and on-road MPG (EPA's 5-cycle test used for fuel economy labeling, including the FTP, HWFET, US06, SC03, and UDDS)21 for liquid fueled vehicles. We believe that EPA's 5-cycle test is more representative of real-world driving, so we converted the 2-cycle CO2 emission to real-world CO2 by dividing by 0.8 (equal to multiplying by 1.25). Real World Tailpipe C02 = ( Projected 2 Cycle C02 Off Cycle Credit Equation 2-1 A/C Efficiency Credit) * 1.25 Table 2-5 Projections for the average, real-world fleetwide tailpipe CO2 emissions and fuel economy Model Year Real-World Tailpipe CO? (g/mile) Real-World Fuel Economy (miles per gallon) Cars Trucks Cars + Trucks Cars Trucks Cars + Trucks 2016 base 287 381 320 30.9 23.3 27.8 2017 276 378 313 32.2 23.5 28.4 2018 266 373 304 33.5 23.9 29.2 2019 255 363 294 34.8 24.5 30.2 2020 244 357 284 36.4 24.9 31.3 2021 234 334 269 38.0 26.6 33.1 2022 223 318 256 39.9 27.9 34.7 2023 215 304 244 41.3 29.3 36.4 2024 205 289 233 43.4 30.8 38.1 2025 196 277 223 45.5 32.1 40.0 10 ------- 2.1.1.2 SAFE Rule The SAFE rule, finalized in March 2020 and effective on June 29, 2020, amended existing CAFE and GHG standards for passenger cars and light trucks. The fleet-average targets for light- duty passenger cars and trucks in the SAFE rule are shown in Table 2-6. We updated energy rates based on the SAFE rule in MOVES3 as described in Section 2.1.2 (running energy rates) and in Section 2.1.3 (start energy rates).0 Table 2-6 Fleet-average fuel economy and CO2 targets in the SAFE rule Model Average of OEM Established Requirements Year Passenger Cars Passenger Trucks CAFE mog CO7 g/mile CAFE mog C02 g/mile 2021 44.2 183 31.6 264 2022 44.9 180 32.1 259 2023 45.6 177 32.6 255 2024 46.3 174 33.1 251 2025 47.0 171 33.6 247 2026 47.7 168 34.1 243 2.1.1.3 Revised 2023 and Later LD GHG Standards The Revised 2023 and Later Model Year Light Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards (LD GHG 2023-2026) rule22 tightened the CO2 emission requirements for model years 2023 and later. These standards, shown in Table 2-7, are expected to increase the fraction of electric vehicles in the fleet as described in the Population and Activity Report5 and to change the average energy consumption of the remaining ICE vehicles. Table 2-7 Estimated fleet-wide CO2 targets corresponding to the final LD GHG 2023-2026 standards Model CO? Emission Targets (g/mile) Year Passenger Cars Passenger Trucks Fleet-Average 2023 166 234 202 2024 158 222 192 2025 149 207 179 2026 and 132 187 161 beyond 2.1.1.4 LMDV2027 Standards The Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles (LMDV2027) rule was finalized by EPA in 2024 and incorporated into MOVES5. The standards increase in stringency each year over a six-year period from model years 2027 to 2032. The proposed standards are projected to result in an industry-wide average target for the light-duty fleet of 82 g/mile of CO2 in MY 2032. The CO2 emission rates for 0 The SAFE "Part 1" Final Rule (One National Program) was released in September 2019. As a result, EPA withdrew the Clean Air Act preemption waiver for LD vehicles it had granted to California. The California Clean Air Act preemption waiver was reinstated in 2023. 11 ------- gasoline, diesel, and E-85 vehicles in MOVES regulatory classes 20, 30, and 41 were updated by matching MOVES output to the rates generated by the EPA Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Automobiles (OMEGA) model for the final rule (FRM) central case scenario, which can be found in the docket for the rulemaking.23 2.1.2 Light-Duty Running Energy Rates for Internal Combustion Engines This section focuses on running energy rates for light-duty vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE). The main text focuses on gasoline vehicles, including hybrids. Hybrids are subject to the same CO2 standards as conventional gasoline vehicles and are incorporated into the fleet average emissions for gasoline vehicles. Energy consumption rates for vehicles running on diesel and ethanol fuels are described in Section 2.1.2.6. 2.1.2.1 Motorcycles Motorcycle energy consumption rates have not been updated since MOVES2014. The energy rates were developed initially for MOVES200416 for three weight categories (<500 lbs, 500-700 lbs, and >700 lbs), and three engine size categories (<170 cc, 170-280 cc, and > 280 cc). We consolidated the energy consumption rates into a single energy rate by model year for all motorcycles in MOVES2010a.17 Due to a population shift to larger motorcycles24, this resulted in an average increase in motorcycle energy consumption rates between MY 1991 and MY 2000. We assumed the same distributions of motorcycles starting in MY 2000 going forward to MY 2060 (2.9% <170cc, 4.3% 170-280cc, and 92.8%>280 cc, with 30% between 500-700 lbs, and 70% > 700 lbs), thus the motorcycle energy running rates for MY 2000 through MY 2060 remain constant. 2.1.2.2 Model Years Prior to 2017 Energy consumption rates for light-duty vehicles (LDV) from before MY 2017, and light-duty trucks (LDT) from before MY 2017 are unchanged from MOVES2014. The energy rates for motorcycles, light-duty cars and light-duty trucks are distinguished by fuel type, engine technology, regulatory class, and model year. Before MOVES2010a, MOVES stored energy rates in significantly more detail than it does now; rates varied by engine technology, engine size and more refined loaded weight classes. For MOVES2010a, the energy rates were simplified to use single energy rates for each regulatory class, fuel type and model year combination. This was done by removing advanced technology energy rates and aggregating the MOVES2010 energy rates across engine size and vehicle weight classes according to the default vehicle populations in MOVES2010. Because this approach used highly detailed energy consumption data, coupled with information on engine size and vehicle weight for the vehicle fleet that varied for each model year, year-by-year variability was introduced into the pre-2000 MY aggregated energy rates used in MOVES2010a and carried into later MOVES versions. The effects of the LD GHG Phase 1 and Phase 2 rules were modelled by adjusting the energy rates in previous MOVES versions, as documented in the MOVES2010 and MOVES2014 GHG and Energy Consumption Rates reports.17 25 12 ------- 2.1.2.3 Model Years 2017-2026 Light-duty energy consumption rates for model years 2017 through 2022 are based sales and certification data from the 2023 Automotive Trends Report.26 For model years 2023-2026, MOVES estimates the effects of the LD GHG 2023-2026 rule. The basic methodology we used is the same as the one used to incorporate LD GHG rules in MOVES2014, where we used ratios of the estimated real-world CO2 (or on-road CO2) values developed in the rulemaking as input to update the MOVES rates in the emissionRate table. The real-world CO2 calculation for model years 2023-2026 uses CO2 2-cycle g/mile rates, off-cycle credits, and AJC efficiency credits, as shown in Equation 2-1. MOVES also incorporates an adjustment to ICE energy rates that accounts for fleet averaging and the sales of electric vehicles as documented in the Emission Adjustments Report.2 The adjustment results in an increase in the average C02/mile for gasoline and diesel vehicles. 2.1.2.4 Model Years 2027 and beyond For LMDV2027, we calculated adjustment ratios from on-road CO2 values generated by OMEGA and applied them directly to running energy rates in the emissionRate table, including for all ICE light-duty vehicles (regulatory classes 20 and 30) and all medium-duty vehicles (regulatory class 41). The new, more stringent emissions standards for criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) for light-duty vehicles and medium-duty vehicles (LMDV) phase in over model years 2027 through 2032 and then are stable beyond model year 2032. The LMDV2027 standards are different for Class 2b and Class 3 vehicles, which are both modeled in MOVES as regulatory class 41. In MOVES, we set the regClass 41 values in the emissionRate table to the rate appropriate for Class 3 vehicles and adjust this to reflect the Class 2b standards for source types 31 and 32 by applying adjustments via the emissionrateadjustment table. MOVES also incorporates an adjustment to ICE energy rates that accounts for the fleet averaging provisions of LMDV2027 as documented in the Emission Adjustments Report. The fleet averaging adjustment results in higher CO2 g/mile rates for ICE vehicles in years where we project that Inflation Reduction Act subsidies will result in higher EV sales fractions than needed to comply with the LMDV2027 rule. 2.1.2.5 LD Running Energy by Operating Mode Figure 2-2 shows the energy consumption rates by operating mode for motorcycles, LDVs, and LDTs in model year 2025. The relative energy consumption rates by operating mode are the same for all passenger cars beginning in MY 1999 and all light-duty trucks beginning in MY 2001. 13 ------- 4&+G5- 1 n r 2e+05- 1 1 1 0 ¦ j le+05- 1 1 » I 1 1 0 1 2 iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii 4 5 6 7 019 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 IS 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 23 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 3B 39 40 opModelD fuelTypeDesc Diesel Fuel Gasoline Figure 2-2. Running energy rates by operating mode (opModelD) for motorcycles (MC), light-duty vehicles (LDV) and light-duty trucks (LDT) for model year 2025 2.1.2.6 LD Running Energy Rate Summary Beginning in MY 2021, the absolute magnitude of light-duty energy consumption rates fall, driven by EPA rules. This can be seen in Figure 2-3 and Figure 2-4, which plot the MOVES national average CO2 emission rates for motorcycles, LDVs, and LDTs for the running process. Model years 1950-1969 have the same CO2 emission rates as MY 1970. These emission rates represent fleet average emissions and do not necessarily reflect GHG standards directly. Some changes in base rates may be caused by MOVES modeling of fleet averaging when EVs represent a significant portion of total light-duty sales. 14 ------- 1000' 0) | 400' CO a: t\l o o 200' 1 il K A n Y tm>W \f Reg Class 20-LDV -t- 30-LDT 1980 2000 2020 2040 Model Year Figure 2-4. Base running rates in MOVES5 for atmospheric CO2 from diesel light-duty vehicles and light- duty trucks averaged over nationally representative operating mode distributions. MOVES5 models no diesel passenger cars after MY 2019. 15 ------- Starting in MY 2012, diesel LDVs and LDTs have the same relative energy rates (for starts and running) and operating mode trends as corresponding gasoline vehicles. The diesel energy rates are 2.9% lower than the gasoline running energy rates. The 2.9% difference accounts for the higher carbon content in diesel fuel (Table 4-1) as compared to gasoline fuel, such that the CO2 emission rates are equivalent for 2012 MY+ gasoline and diesel vehicles. The model year trends for diesel LDV and LDT CO2 emission rates are similar to gasoline vehicles beginning in MY 2012, as shown in Figure 2-4. Ethanol (E-85) vehicles are assumed to have the same energy consumption rates as comparable gasoline vehicles. However, the differences in carbon content results in different CO2 emission rates as discussed in Section 4.1. 2.1.3 Light-Duty Running Energy Rates for Electric Vehicles Energy rates for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were significantly updated in MOVES4, relative to MOVES3. There is limited experimental data available at the 1 HZ level, which is the resolution that MOVES requires. We modeled nine BEVs representative of the 2019 fleet in EPA's ALPHA (Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis) model.27 The vehicles modelled include the Chevy Bolt, Tesla Model 3, Honda Clarity (BEV), Nissan Leaf, Fiat 500e, Tesla Model S, BMW i3, VW e-Golf, and Tesla Model X. Inputs for each vehicle were compiled from the EPA test car list28, manufacturer data, press releases, and other sources. See Appendix C for a comprehensive table of the values used for these vehicles. These rates were used for all model years 2011-2060. In ALPHA, we simulated each vehicle over three repeats of the EPA UDDS and HWFET21 cycles, as well as two additional sets of drive cycles in order to increase the sample sizes for the high-powered operating modes. The first set included the UDDS, LA92, US06, and Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Cycles (WLTC). The second set was a custom-built cycle intended to fully populate every MOVES operating mode. It consisted of 50 hard accelerations based on a standard 0-78.5 mph acceleration curve but varied slightly with a maximum speed ranging from 75 to 80 miles per hour. This enabled rate collection for a variety of speeds and vehicle-specific power bins (VSPs). Data during deceleration back to 0 mph was ignored because the cycle was intended only to sample high-power operation, not represent real-world operation. Typically, operating mode is assigned using power at the wheels, as calculated by ALPHA based on the individual vehicle characteristics. Since MOVES uses the same road load coefficients for BEVs and ICE vehicles, that approach meant the resulting energy consumption values were biased too high. Instead, we calculated VSP and assigned operating modes using the road loads in MOVES and the values for velocity and acceleration reported by ALPHA. After making this change, the energy rates calculated by ALPHA were much more closely aligned with the data from the test car list.28 More details about parameters and results in ALPHA modeling can be found in Appendix C. We derived final energy rates by calculating the average rate across all of the modelled vehicles in ALPHA, weighted by 2019 sales volumes. The sales volumes can be found in Table C-l in 16 ------- Appendix C. This approach accounts for variations in BEV engineering, increases the sample size in each operating mode, and helps make the energy rates less sensitive to differences in vehicle characteristics. In theory, a similar methodology could be applied to passenger trucks. However, at the time of our analysis for MOVES4, there was not enough information available about EV trucks on the market or in the test car list to properly represent these vehicles in ALPHA. Therefore, we scaled the rates for light-duty electric trucks and LHD2b3 trucks (regulatory classes 30 and 41) from the light-duty electric car rates, assuming that energy gained from regenerative braking and energy used during all other operation increases linearly with vehicle mass. We calculated the specific scaling factor from the fixedMassFactor column of the sourceUseTypePhysics table. The scaling factor for converting LDV rates to LDT rates is 1.2624, while the scaling factor to convert LDV rates to LHD2b3 is 3.3811. The MOVES energy consumption rates for MY2011-2060 passenger cars and passenger trucks are shown below in Figure 2-5 and Figure 2-6. In both figures, the blue bars represent energy consumption rates for a BEV and the orange bars represent the rates for an ICE vehicle. Negative energy consumption values in the plots represent regenerative braking. For passenger cars and trucks, BEV energy rates for each operating mode have lower values than ICE energy rates. 4e+05 3e+05- .2 2e+05 o o 1e+05 0e+00 EV Car ICE Car Operating Mode Figure 2-5. MOVES5 base energy rates for electric and ICE model year 2011-2060 passenger cars by operating mode 17 ------- 4e+05 3e+05 2e+05 o o S 1e+05 Oe+OO EV Truck ICE Truck Operating Mode Figure 2-6. MOVES5 base energy rates for electric and ICE model year 2011-2060 passenger trucks by operating mode Further adjustments to BEV energy consumption rates are documented in the Emission Adjustments Report,2 including adjustments for ambient temperature, air conditioning, and for charging and battery efficiency. MOVES does not model light-duty fuel cell electric vehicles. 2.1.4 Light-Duty Start Energy Rates LD BEVs are modelled with zero energy consumption for starts. ICE vehicles, on the other hand, require energy to start the internal combustion engine, especially when the engine has been sitting ("soaking") for a long time or in low ambient temperatures. Figure 2-7 displays the start energy rates for gasoline motorcycles (MC), light-duty vehicles (LDV), and light-duty trucks (LDT) by operating mode for model year 2020. Start energy rates increase for operating modes with longer soak times as defined in Table 2-8. The operating mode fractions are used for all model years and fuel types of light-duty vehicles and motorcycles. MOVES also adjusts the start rates for the increased fuel consumption required to start a vehicle at cold ambient temperatures. The temperature effects on start energy consumption are documented in the Emission Adjustments Report2 and the 2004 Energy Report.16 18 ------- 2000" 1500- 1000- 500 0 -L 1500- 1000- 500 i 0 2000"" 1500" 10D0- 500- 0 -. 104 105 opModelD fuelTypeDesc Diesel Fuel Gasoline Figure 2-7. Start energy rates by operating mode (opModelD) for motorcycles (MC), light-duty vehicles (LDV) and light-duty trucks (LDT) for model year 2025 Table 2-8. Proportion of energy consumed at start of varying soak lengths compared to the energy consumed Operating Mode Description Proportion of energy consumption compared to cold start 101 Soak Time < 6 minutes 0.013 102 6 minutes <= Soak Time < 30 minutes 0.0773 103 30 minutes <= Soak Time < 60 minutes 0.1903 104 60 minutes <= Soak Time < 90 minutes 0.3118 105 90 minutes <= Soak Time < 120 minutes 0.4078 106 120 minutes <= Soak Time < 360 minutes 0.5786 107 360 minutes <= Soak Time < 720 minutes 0.8751 108 720 minutes <= Soak Time 1 To account for the LD GHG 2023-2026 rule, we reduced start energy rates (based on the rule's estimated real-world CO2) for all ICE light-duty vehicles by the same ratios as used for running energy consumption rates. This was discussed in Section 2.1.1.3. We similarly applied the same adjustment factors for model years 2027 and beyond as we did for running emissions to capture the impact of the LMDV2027 rule. This was discussed in Section 2.1.1.4. The adjustment ratios vary by model year from 2020 to 2050. The adjustment ratio for MY 2050 was applied to model years 2051 and beyond. 19 ------- Figure 2-8 and Figure 2-9 plot the start CO2 emission rates for cold starts (opModel08) across model years for gasoline and diesel light-duty vehicles, respectively. Motorcycles have a sharp decrease in CO2 emission starts in 1991 because MOVES assumes 'controlled' energy starts beginning in MY 1991 as documented in the MOVES2004 energy report.16 The start rates for LDV and LDT have a large decrease starting in MY 2012 that follows the same general trends as the running rates. Reg Class 10-MC 20-LDV 30-LDT 1970 1990 2010 Model Year 2030 2050 Figure 2-8. Cold start CO2 emission rates (opMode 108) for gasoline motorcycle, light-duty vehicles, and light-duty trucks 20 ------- Model Year Figure 2-9. Cold start CO2 emission rates (opMode 108) for diesel light-duty vehicles, and light-duty trucks 2.2 Heavy-Duty Vehicles MOVES has heavy-duty running energy consumption rates for five fuel types: diesel, gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), battery electric (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV). Note that the output for BEVs and FCEVs is combined as the electricity fuel type. The development of the heavy-duty energy rates by regulatory class, fuel type, and model year for ICE technologies are documented in the HD Exhaust Report.1 These rates include the reductions from the HD GHG Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase 3 standards which are only summarized here. Energy consumption rates for heavy-duty electric vehicles are documented in Section 2.2.1 of this report. The HD GHG Phase 1 standards began in MY 2014 and increase in stringency through MY 2018. The standards were set to continue indefinitely after 2018. The program divides the diverse truck sector into three distinct categories: Line haul tractors (largest heavy-duty tractors used to pull trailers, i.e., semi-trucks) Heavy-duty pickups and vans (3/4- and 1- ton trucks and vans) Vocational trucks (buses, refuse trucks, concrete mixers, etc) The program set separate standards for engines and vehicles, and set separate standards for fuel consumption, CO2, N2O, CH4 and HFCs.d The HD GHG Phase 1 rule was incorporated into MOVES through three key elements. These include (a) revised running emission rates for energy consumption, (b) new aerodynamic d HFCs are not modeled in MOVES, and the N20 and CH4 standards are not considered forcing on emissions. 21 ------- coefficients and weights, (c) auxiliary power units (APUs), which largely replace extended idle in long-haul trucks and were added as a new process in MOVES. The Phase 1 reductions vary by fuel type, regulatory class, and model year. CNG and diesel vehicles have the same reductions because they have the same standards. The effect of the HD GHG Phase 1 rule on running energy consumption rates, APU energy consumption rates, and criteria emission rates is documented in the HD Exhaust Report.1 The revised aerodynamic coefficients for MY 2014 and later heavy-duty trucks are documented in the Population and Activity Report.5 MOVES also accounts for the HD GHG Phase 2 rule. The Phase 2 reductions in energy rates vary by fuel type, regulatory class, and model year like the Phase 1 rule, but also by source type. For details regarding these updates, please refer to HD Exhaust Report.1 In MOVES5, we updated heavy-duty vehicle energy rates to incorporate the HD GHG Phase 3 rule. As with Phase 1 and Phase 2, the Phase 3 reductions in energy rates vary by vehicle type and are documented in the HD Exhaust Report.1 2.2.1 Heavy-Duty Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Energy Rates In MOVES, heavy-duty EVs can have either battery electric or fuel cell powertrains, referred to as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), respectively. Light-duty EV energy consumption was estimated using EPA's ALPHA model, based on the average energy consumption of real BEV passenger cars and SUVs (see Section 2.1.3). Unfortunately, there is not enough data for heavy-duty BEVs or FCEVs to implement a similar approach to developing energy consumption rates. Therefore, we used a more general approach based on an Energy Efficiency Ratio (EER) of electric vehicles to diesel vehicles. The EER allows MOVES to calculate EV energy consumption relative to diesel energy consumption, which is much better understood. CARB has used the EER to express EV energy consumption as well.29 The energy consumption of an HD EV can be calculated using Equation 2-2: Energydiesel > > EnergyEV = Equation 2-2 CCil BEV EERs are generally greater than 1, indicating EVs are generally more efficient than comparable diesel vehicles. An EER of 2 means an electric vehicle is twice as efficient as its diesel counterpart and therefore consumes half the energy. While an EER can be formulated relative to any ICE vehicle, we use diesel as the reference because it is the dominant fuel type in the heavy-duty sector. For BEVs, we implemented this approach by first duplicating diesel energy consumption rates for all electric vehicles in the EmissionRate table, then applying the EERs using the EmissionRateAdjustment table. Heavy-duty FCEVs have a lower efficiency ratio than comparable BEVs. However, MOVES aggregates BEVs and FCEVs together into the electricity fuel type by the time the EERs are 22 ------- applied. The result is that the same EER is applied to both engine technologies. To account for this, the energy consumption rates for FCEVs in the EmissionRate table are scaled up by a FCEV:BEV scaling factor. This scaling factor incorporates all operational differences between the two vehicle types, including differences in energy conversion efficiency and other MOVES effects such as the temperature effect and charging efficiency adjustments for BEVs.2 In MOVES4, we calculated BEV EERs and the FCEV:BEV ratio based on a literature review of sources available at the time. For MOVES5, we updated the EERs to be based entirely on heavy- duty vehicle modeling in EPA's Heavy-Duty Technology Resource Use Case Scenario Tool (HD TRUCS). HD TRUCS was developed for the HD GHG Phase 3 rule and was EPA's technology assessment tool to support the development of technology packages for the final HD Phase 3 standards. It was peer reviewed in 202330 and is more fully discussed in the HD Phase 3 Regulatory Impact Analysis Chapter 2.31 For our analysis, we used the FRM version of HD TRUCS available in the HD Phase 3 docket.32 HD TRUCS evaluates the energy and power demands of 101 representative HD vehicle types. The representative vehicles cover many aspects of work performed by vehicles in the heavy-duty sector. This work was translated into total energy and power demands by vehicle type based on everyday use of HD vehicles. HD TRUCS then identifies the technical properties required for electric vehicles (BEV, FCEV, or plug-in hybrids) to meet the operational needs of a comparable diesel vehicle. In other words, HD TRUCS estimates the energy consumption rates of BEVs and directly comparable diesel using component-level vehicle modeling and data. We used the HD TRUCS output to calculate sales-weighted average diesel and BEV energy consumption by MOVES source type and regulatory class.6 This, then, allows for the calculation of BEV EERs, which appear in Table 2-9. Similarly, we used HD TRUCS output to calculate a single FCEV:BEV scaling factor of 1.211 that includes all the operational differences between BEVs and FCEVs. e The sales volumes used to calculate the sales-weighted averages are included in HD TRUCS. 23 ------- Table 2-9 BEV Energy Efficiency Ratios (EER) calculated from HP TRUCS Source Type LHD45 regClassID 42 MHD67 regClassID 46 HHD8 regClassID 47 Urban Bus regClassID 48 Other Buses sourceTypelD 41 4.23 3.84 2.70 Transit Buses sourceTypelD 42 3.59 3.44 3.65 3.65 School Buses sourceTypelD 43 3.89 4.05 3.15 Refuse Trucks sourceTypelD 51 3.53 3.53 3.70 Single Unit Short-Haul Trucks sourceTypelD 52 3.78 3.45 3.03 Single Unit Long-Haul Trucks sourceTypelD 53 3.47 2.92 2.39 Motor Homes sourceTypelD 54 3.33 3.08 3.04 Combination Short-Haul Trucks sourceTypelD 61 2.34 2.28 Combination Long-Haul Trucks sourceTypelD 62 2.15 2.15 This approach has its limitations; the most important being the implicit assumption that relative power demand across operating modes is the same between ICE and EV vehicles. While regenerative braking is included in HD TRUCS and thus is included in the estimation of EERs, MOVES cannot explicitly model regenerative braking (a negative energy consumption for the braking operating modes) for heavy-duty EVs like it can for light-duty. This approach is used only for running energy consumption. Heavy-duty EV energy consumption is assumed to be zero for starts, consistent with the approach for light-duty. For hotelling, we assume EV combination long-haul trucks will use shore power from the facility at which they hotel, or otherwise keep the main battery off. Energy consumption for shore power is discussed in the following section. 2.2.2 Hotelling Shore Power Energy Consumption "Hotelling" refers to rest periods by long-haul trucking operators where the truck is used as a residence. Energy consumption and emission rates during hotelling from conventional vehicles is described in the HD Exhaust Report.1 To fully estimate energy demand on the grid for electric and other vehicles, MOVES estimates energy consumption for combination trucks which hotel overnight plugged into the AC power at the facility - known in the industry as using shore power. Shore power is represented by processID 93 and its energy consumption rates are stored in the operating mode 203. In MOVES3, operating mode 203 covered both shore power and battery usage for hotelling. In newer versions of MOVES, battery activity is classified as operating mode 204. Details are available in the Population and Activity Report.5 24 ------- Combination trucks of any fuel type can use shore power if they have the correct equipment. Because the shore power is used to run accessories in the cabin, we assume that the energy consumption for all fuel types using shore power is the same. Likewise, because the energy consumption is related to accessory use, we use the same energy consumption rate for all model years. There is little data on shore power energy consumption, in large part because shore power usage is still relatively rare - operators typically opt for auxiliary power units. Frey and Kuo (2009)33 collected energy consumption data from hotelling trucks from late 2006 through early 2008, including engine-on idling, APU usage, and shore power for MY 2006 combination trucks. Using their published energy consumption values, we derived a shore power EER, consistent with our approach to modeling running energy consumption for heavy-duty EVs described in Section 2.2.1. Frey and Kuo report data for both a mid-temperature and high-temperature scenario, with EERs (relative to diesel engine-on energy consumption) that evaluate to 12.05 and 3.75, respectively. We assume that the representative real-world average EER for shore power is 8, roughly averaging the EER values reported by Frey and Kuo. Therefore, the shore power energy consumption rate in MOVES is l/8th the energy consumption for a 2006 model year Class 8 tractor extended idling. We apply this rate (12,135.6 kilojoules per hour) to combination trucks of all fuel types and model years. 3 Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Emission Rates Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful, long-lived greenhouse gas and is formed as a byproduct in virtually all combustion processes34 and in catalytic exhaust emission aftertreatment systems. MOVES estimates N2O emission rates for start and running exhaust. In general, the nitrous oxide (N2O) emission rates in MOVES are estimated more coarsely than other pollutants. In MOVES2014 and earlier versions, running (N2O) emission rates were estimated for one single operating mode (opModelD 300 = all running). In MOVES3, we updated the N2O emission rates to use the 23 operating modes that we use for most other pollutants (opModelDs 0 through 40), however, for most regulatory classes, model years, and fuel types, the average running emission rate is simply copied into the more detailed running exhaust operating modes. Start emissions continue to use a single operating mode ("Starting," opModelD = 100). The N2O start and running exhaust emission rates do not vary by vehicle age and are stored in the EmissionRate table. 3.1 Gasoline Vehicles As detailed in the MOVES2010a energy and greenhouse gas emission rate report17, the gasoline N2O emission rates are derived from emission measurements on the Federal Test Procedure (FTP)21 and supplemented with N2O emission rates from the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006 report46. 25 ------- The running and start emission rates are derived from composite FTP emission rates by using Bag 2 of the FTP to estimate the average running emission rates (in grams per hour), and then estimating the start emissions as the remainder of the composite emissions. Table 3-1 lists the FTP composite N2O emission rates, calculated running rates (in grams per hour) and start rates (in grams per start). The heavy-duty gasoline vehicle emission rates are used for all heavy-duty regulatory classes (LHD2b3, LHD45, MHD, and HHD). Table 3-1 Composite FTP, running, and start N2O emissions for gasoline vehicles Vehicle Tvoe / Control Technology FTP Composite (g/ mile) Running (g/hour) Start (g / start) Motorcycles Non-Catalyst Control 0.0069 0.0854 0.0189 Uncontrolled 0.0087 0.1076 0.0238 Gasoline Passenger Cars EPA Tier 2 0.0050 0.0399 0.0221 LEVs 0.0101 0.0148 0.0697 EPA Tier 1 0.0283 0.2316 0.1228 EPA TierO 0.0538 0.6650 0.1470 Oxidation Catalyst 0.0504 0.6235 0.1379 Non-Catalyst Control 0.0197 0.2437 0.0539 Uncontrolled 0.0197 0.2437 0.0539 Gasoline Light-Duty Trucks EPA Tier 2 0.0066 0.0436 0.0325 LEVs 0.0148 0.0975 0.0728 EPA Tier 1 0.0674 0.6500 0.2546 EPA TierO 0.0370 0.2323 0.1869 Oxidation Catalyst 0.0906 0.8492 0.3513 Non-Catalyst Control 0.0218 0.2044 0.0845 Uncontrolled 0.0220 0.2062 0.0853 Gasoline Heavy-Duty Vehicles EPA Tier 2 0.0134 0.1345 0.0486 LEVs 0.0320 0.3213 0.1160 EPA Tier 1 0.1750 1.7569 0.6342 EPA TierO 0.0814 0.8172 0.2950 Oxidation Catalyst 0.1317 1.3222 0.4773 Non-Catalyst Control 0.0473 0.4749 0.1714 Uncontrolled 0.0497 0.4990 0.1801 26 ------- The N2O emission rates are applied in MOVES using model year group ranges that map to technology distinctions. Table B-l through Table B-4 in Appendix B provide the distribution of gasoline emission control technologies by model year. The running and start emission rates in Table 3-1 are multiplied by the model-year-specific technology penetrations to provide model- year-specific emission rates in MOVES. The values in Table B-l through Table B-4 are taken directly from the Inventory of the US GHG Emissions and Sinks, Annex Tables A-84 through A- 8746, except for a few revisions noted in the footnotes of the tables. Nationally representative N2O base rates for gasoline vehicles are shown in Figure 3-1 and Figure 3-2. 1980 2000 2020 2040 Model Year Figure 3-1. Base running rates in MOVES5 for N2O from gasoline motorcycle, light-duty vehicles and light- duty trucks averaged over nationally representative operating mode distributions. Reg Class 10-MC 20-LDV 30-LDT 27 ------- 0.06 V 0.04 | CD ra K 0.02 0.00' Reg Class 41-LHD2b3 42-LHD45 46-MHD67 -+¦ 47-HHD8 1980 2000 2020 Model Year 2040 Figure 3-2. Base running rates in MOVES5 for N2O from gasoline heavy-duty vehicles averaged over nationally representative operating mode distributions. 3.2 Diesel Vehicles 3.2.1 Light-Duty Diesel For light-duty diesel vehicles, we estimated N2O emission rates using the FTP composite emission rates reported in the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990- 2006 report46, and the algorithm described above for gasoline vehicles. The emission rates by control technology used for light-duty diesel vehicles and light-duty trucks are shown in Table 3-2. Vehicle Tvoe / Control FTP Composite Running Start Technology3 (g/mile) (g/hour) (g / start) Diesel Passenger Cars Advanced 0.0010 0.0168 0.0010 Moderate 0.0010 0.0168 0.0010 Uncontrolled 0.0012 0.0202 0.0012 Diesel Light-Duty Trucks Advanced 0.0015 0.0253 0.0015 Moderate 0.0014 0.0236 0.0014 Uncontrolled 0.0017 0.0286 0.0018 1 Table B-4 defines the model year group definitions of the diesel control technologies groups 28 ------- We used the distribution of light-duty diesel technology types by model year in Table B-4 to estimate model year specific N2O emission rates in MOVES. The model year specific N2O rates are shown in Figure 3-3. 0.00075 a; | 2 0.00050 s £ O CM 0.00025 0.00000 / \ Reg Class 20-LDV 30-LDT 1980 2000 2020 2040 Model Year Figure 3-3. Base running rates in MOVES5 for N2O from diesel passenger cars and passenger trucks averaged over nationally representative operating mode distributions. MOVES5 models no diesel passenger cars after MY 2019. 3.2.2 Heavy-Duty Diesel 3.2.2.1 MY 1950-2003 Heavy-Duty Diesel For heavy-duty diesel vehicles, the N2O emission rates by technology for MY 1950-2003 were taken from the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006 report46 shown in Table 3-3. These emission rates are used in conjunction with the technology to model year mapping in Table B-4 to estimate model-year-specific N2O emission rates in MOVES. The heavy-duty diesel emission rates are used for all heavy-duty diesel regulatory classes including: LHD2b3, LHD45, MHD, HHD, and Urban Bus. In addition, glider vehicles (regClassID 49) use the "Advanced" emission rate in Table 3-5 for model years 1996-2060. Table 3-3 Composite FTP, running, and start N2O emissions for model year 1950-2003 heavy-duty diesel vehicles Vehicle Type / Control Technology3 FTP Composite (g/mile) Running (g/hour) Start (g / start) Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles Advanced 0.0049 0.0828 0.0051 Moderate 0.0048 0.0809 0.0049 Uncontrolled 0.0048 0.0809 0.0049 1 Table B-4 defines the model year group definitions of the diesel control technologies groups 29 ------- 3.2.2.2 MY 2004-2060 Heavy-Duty Diesel Diesel exhaust aftertreatment technologies are known to increase N2O from diesel trucks. For MOVES4, we updated heavy-duty diesel N2O emission rates based on information reported in recent emission studies, as summarized in Table 3-4. The heavy-duty diesel emission rates are classified according to engine model year and aftertreatment technology, including diesel particulate filters (DPF) and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems. Since net emissions for gasoline and light-duty diesel vehicles are expected to remain relatively low (see Figure 3-1, Figure 3-2, and Figure 3-3), we did not update those rates and they continue to be based on the older data and methodology described in the sections above. Preble et al. (2019)35 sampled individual heavy-duty vehicle exhaust plumes at the entrance to the Caldecott Tunnel near Oakland, California and at the Port of Oakland for multiple years. At the entrance of the Caldecott Tunnel, heavy-duty trucks were traveling up a 4% grade between 30 and 75 mph. At the Port of Oakland, the trucks were traveling on a level roadway at around 30 mph. The data from Preble et al. (2019) is also used to update the NFb and NO/NO2 fractions as discussed in the HD Exhaust Report.1 Quiros et al. (2016)36 sampled six heavy-duty diesel tractors hauling a mobile emissions laboratory trailer. They sampled the vehicles along six routes intended to represent goods movement in Southern California. The confidence intervals reported for Quiros et al. (2016) in Table 3-4 were calculated from the average N2O emission rate associated with each of the six routes, which ranged between 0.27 (near-port route) to 0.97 (urban route) g/kg-fuel. The Advanced Collaborative Emissions Study (ACES)37 38 tested four model year 2007 and three model year 2010 heavy-duty diesel engines using an engine dynamometer. Each of the studies demonstrate that model year 2010 and later diesel vehicles have significantly higher N2O emission rates than earlier models of heavy-duty vehicles. N2O is an unintended byproduct formed within the selective catalytic reduction and ammonia oxidation catalysts aftertreatment systems used to control NOx and NH3.39-41136 To ensure that these systems do not produce excessive N2O emissions, the Phase 1 Heavy-Duty Greenhouse Gas Rule implemented an N2O emission standard on the FTP cycle of 0.1 g/hp-hr for 2014 and newer engines, which is roughly equivalent to 0.6 g/kg-fuel. We summarized manufacturer submitted certification data for heavy-duty engines between model year 2016 and 202041 in Table 3-4, which shows that the average FTP cycle average N2O emission rates are roughly half the fuel-specific equivalent Phase 1 standard. For the SCR-equipped vehicles, there is significant variability in the N2O emission rates among the different studies, likely due to different operating conditions. The fuel-based rate reported in Quiros et al. (2016) varied significantly across different road types, and Preble et al. (2019) measured significantly higher SCR-equipped N2O emission rates at the high load conditions of the Caldecott Tunnel compared to the more moderate conditions of the Port of Oakland. 30 ------- Table 3-4. Fuel-based N2O emission rates (± 95% Confidence Intervals, if available) from heavy-duty diesel vehicles by aftertreatment system and engine model year reported from recent studies Study Description Sample Size Aftertreatment Engine MY N20 emission rate (g/kg) Preble et al. (2019)35 Caldecott Tunnel near Oakland California, Plume- Capture, Sample Years: 2014, 2015,2018 1447 DPF + SCR 2010-2018 0.93 ±0.13 744 DPF 2007-2009 0.01 ±0.01 346 DPF Retrofit 1994-2006 0.01 ±0.02 183 No DPF 2004-2006 0.00 ±0.03 433 No DPF 1965-2003 0.00 ±0.09 Preble et al. (2019)35 Port of Oakland, Sample Year: 2015 300 DPF + SCR 2010-2016 0.44 ±0.11 866 DPF 2007-2009 0.06 ±0.01 11 No DPF 2004-2006 0.07 ± 0.06 Quiros et al. (2016)36 Six good movements routes in Southern California sampled using mobile laboratory 4 DPF + SCR 2013-2014 0.51 ±0.28 (0.27 to 0.97) 1 DPF (Hybrid Diesel) 2011 0.03 ±0.01 1 DPF 2007 0.06 ± 0.06 Khalek et al. (2013)38 Advanced Collaborative Emissions Control Study, engine dynamometer 3 DPF + SCR 2011 0.26 ±0.48 (16-hour cycle) 0.38 ± 0.59 (FTPA) Khalek et al. (2009)37 4 DPF 2007 0.05 ±0.03 (16-hour cycle) 0.07 ± 0.07 (FTP) EPA Certification Data (2020)41 Heavy-duty FTP Transient Certification Test 60 DPF + SCR 2016-2020 0.34 (FTP Transient) 0.34 (SETB Steady-State) A Federal Test Procedure (FTP) B Supplemental Emission Test (SET) For developing N2O emission rates, we chose to use the fuel-based rates from the Port of Oakland collected by Preble et al. (2019)35 because the DPF+SCR rates fell within the range of the other DPF+SCR fuel-based rates, and the DPF-only rates were similar to the other reported studies. To develop MOVES heavy-duty diesel N2O emission rates by regulatory class, model year, and operating mode, we multiplied the MOVES3 heavy-duty diesel vehicle fuel-consumption rates by regulatory class, model year, operating mode (Fuel RatesReg MYi0p) by the Preble et al. (2019) fuel-based N2O emission rates (FERModei Year Group) listed in Table 3-4, as shown below in Equation 3-1. ERReg,MY,age,op Fuel RcitesReg,op ^ FERModei Year Group Equation 3-1 Figure 3-4 shows example N2O emission rates for the LHD2b3 and HHD regulatory classes for model year 2017. Even though the fuel-based emission rate is the same, the N2O gram/hour rate 31 ------- is higher for the HHD regulatory class due to the higher fuel consumption rates. The N2O emission rates for model years 2018 and later were set equal to the rates for 2017. LHD2b3 ~i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HHD8 ll 0 1 11 1213141516212223242527282930333537383940 0 1 11 12131415162122232425272829 3033 35 3738 3940 Operating Mode Figure 3-4. N2O running emission rates (g/hour) by operating mode for model year 2017 LHD2b3 and HHD Figure 3-5 shows heavy-duty diesel N2O rates by regulatory class, averaged over nationally representative operating mode distributions, in grams per mile. 32 ------- 0.2' C3 K ° 0.1 0.0' PS. Reg Class -- 41-LHD2b3 42-LHD45 46-MHD67 -*¦ 47-HHD8 48-Urban Bus 49-Gliders 1980 2000 2020 2040 Model Year Figure 3-5. Base running rates in MOVES5 for N2O from diesel heavy-duty vehicles averaged over nationally representative operating mode distributions. We evaluated N2O start emissions from the data collected in the ACES engine dynamometer study by comparing the FTP cycle (40 minute cycle with one cold start and one hot start) and the 16-hour cycle (one cold and one hot-start over a 16-hour cycle). The N2O emissions from both the 2011 and 2007 engines were higher in the FTP than the 16-hour cycle (Table 3-4), but a paired-test showed that the difference was not statistically significant (p-value of 0.08 and 0.12, respectively). Because the start emissions appear to make a negligible contribution to the total tailpipe N2O emissions, we estimate zero N2O start emission rates for model year 2004-2060 heavy-duty diesel vehicles. MOVES does not include estimates of N2O from the extended idle and auxiliary power unit exhaust processes. Overall, we anticipate the N2O from these processes to be very low, in part because auxiliary power units are not anticipated to be equipped with SCR systems. Future versions of MOVES could consider incorporating N2O emission from extended idling and auxiliary power unit exhaust as more data become available. 3.3 Alternative-Fueled Vehicles MOVES includes N2O emission rates for alternative fuels, including E85 and CNG fueled vehicles. The N2O emission rates were based on limited data from the Sources and Sinks report.46 In MOVES, the N2O emission rates for E85-fueled vehicles are set to be the same as gasoline vehicles. Heavy-duty CNG vehicles use the emission rates reported in Table 3-5. These rates remain unchanged from the numbers reported for MOVES2010a17. The composite emission rate was obtained from the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-200646, and 33 ------- disaggregated into running and starts using the same relative running and start splits as heavy- gasoline vehicles. Table 3-5. N2O emission rates for CNG-fueled heavy-duty vehicles in MOVES FTP Composite (g/mile) Running (g/hour) Starts (g/start) 0.175 1.6797 0.6636 4 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emission Rates 4.1 Carbon Dioxide Calculations MOVES does not store carbon dioxide emission rates in the emission rate tables (e.g., CCh/mile or CCh/hour operation), but calculates carbon dioxide emissions from total energy consumption as shown in Equation 4-1. /44\ C02 = Total Energy Consumed x Carbon Content x Oxidation Fraction x \ Equation 4-1 Carbon content is expressed in grams of carbon per kJ of energy consumed. Oxidation fraction is the fraction of carbon that is oxidized to form CO2 in the atmosphere. A small mass percentage of fuel is emitted as carbon monoxide, organic gases and organic carbon. Currently, MOVES assumes an oxidation fraction of 1 for all the hydrocarbon-based fuels. The value (44/12) is the molecular mass of CO2 divided by the atomic mass of carbon. The carbon content and oxidation fractions used to calculate CO2 emissions are provided in Table 4-1. The carbon content values used in MOVES were developed for MOVES200416 based on values derived from the life-cycle model GREET. In MOVES4, we updated the values for subtypes 12-21 to reflect measured properties of certification test fuels (subtypes 12 and 20) with mathematical adjustments for other blend levels using biofuel properties published by DOE's Alternative Fuel Data Center.42 43 Because MOVES doesn't model upstream emissions, the carbon content for electricity (whether from BEVs or FCEVs) is zero. Energy content refers to lower heating values. 34 ------- Table 4-1. Carbon content and oxidation fraction by fuel subtype fuelSubtypelD fuelTypelD Fuel Subtype Carbon Content (g/kJ) Oxidation Fraction 10 1 Conventional Gasoline 0.0196 1 11 1 Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) 0.0196 1 12 1 Gasohol (E10) 0.01982 1 13 1 Gasohol (E8) 0.01982 1 14 1 Gasohol (E5) 0.01984 1 15 1 Gasohol (El5) 0.01980 1 20 2 Conventional Diesel Fuel 0.02022 1 21 2 Biodiesel Blend 0.02022 1 22 2 Fischer-Tropsch Diesel (FTD100) 0.0207 1 30 3 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) 0.0161 1 40 4 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) 0.0161 1 50 5 Ethanol 0.0194 1 51 5 Ethanol (E85) 0.0194 1 52 5 Ethanol (E70) 0.0194 1 90 9 Electricity 0 0 4.2 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Emissions CO2 equivalent (CChe) is a combined measure of greenhouse gas emissions weighted according to the global warming potential (GWP) of each gas relative to CO2. Although the mass emissions of CH4 and N2O are much smaller than CO2, the global warming potential is higher, which increases the contribution of these gases to the overall greenhouse effect. MOVES calculates CChe from CO2, N2O, and CH4 mass emissions according to Equation 4-2. C02 equivalent = C02 x GWPC02 + CH4 X GWPCHa + N20 X GWPN2q Equation 4-2 By definition, the GWP of CO2 is 1. For CH4 and N2O, MOVES uses the 100-year GWPs listed in Table 4-2 and stored in the pollutant table of the MOVES default database. MOVES uses the 100-year GWP values from the 2014 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).44 Table 4-2 100-year Global Warming Potentials used in MOVES Pollutant Global Wanning Potential (GWP) Methane (CH4) 28 Nitrous Oxide (N20) 265 Atmospheric CO2 1 35 ------- 5 Fuel Consumption Calculations MOVES reports fuel consumption in terms of energy use, but not in terms of volume or mass. However, MOVES calculates fuel usage in terms of volume and mass within the refueling and sulfur dioxide emission calculators,1 respectively. To do so, it uses energy content and the density of the fuel to calculate fuel volume, as presented in Equation 5-1 and the values in Table 5-1. Fuel (.gallons) = Energy«/) x (__L_) (A) x Equation 5-1 The fuel density and the energy content values are stored in the fuelType and fuelSubType tables, respectively. Fuel density is classified according to the more general fuel types, and energy content varies according to fuel subtype. Because MOVES outputs energy consumption by fueltype but not fuelsubtype, the average energy content by fuel type can be calculated using the energy content of each fuel subtype and its market share, stored in the fuel Supply table. The derivation of the fuelSupply table is documented in the Fuel Supply Report.4 The fuel properties shown here were originally derived from GREET and other published references, as described in Section 6 of the MOVES2004 Energy and Emissions Inputs draft report.16 For MOVES4, we updated the values for subtypes 12-21 to reflect measured properties of certification test fuels (subtypes 12 and 20) with mathematical adjustments for other blend levels using biofuel properties published by DOE's Alternative Fuel Data Center.42 43 Energy content figures are lower heating values. Table 5-1. Fuel density and energy content by fuel type and subty pe fuelTypelD fuelSubtypelD fuelSubtypeDesc Fuel Density (g/gallon) Energy Content (kJ/g,LHV) 1 10 Conventional Gasoline 2829 43.488 1 11 Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) 2829 42.358 1 12 Gasohol (E10) 2829 41.696 1 13 Gasohol (E8) 2829 42.027 1 14 Gasohol (E5) 2829 42.523 1 15 Gasohol (El5) 2829 40.877 2 20 Conventional Diesel Fuel 3203 42.869 2 21 Biodiesel Blend 3203 42.700 2 22 Fischer-Tropsch Diesel (FTD100) 3203 43.247 3 30 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) NULL 48.632 4 40 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) 1923 46.607 5 50 Ethanol 2944 26.592 5 51 Ethanol (E85) 2944 29.12 5 52 Ethanol (E70) 2944 31.649 9 90 Electricity NULL NULL 36 ------- Appendices Appendix A. Timeline of Energy and GHG emissions in MOVES MOVES2004 o Released with a full suite of energy, methane, rates to allow estimation of fuel consumption and GHG emissions, o Energy rates developed at a fine level of detail by vehicle attributes including classes for engine technologies, engine sizes, and loaded weight classes. The emission rates were created by analyzing second by second (1 Hz) resolution data from 16 EPA test programs covering approximately 500 vehicles and 26 non-EPA test programs covering approximately 10,760 vehicles, o "Holes" in the data were filled using either the Physical Emission Rate Estimator (PERE)45 or interpolation, o Energy consumption at starts increases at temperatures < 75F MOVES2009 o Updates of Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emission rates ¦ Based on an enlarged database of Federal Test Procedure (FTP) emission tests and the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-200646 o Energy start rates adjusted for soak time MOVES2010 o Heavy-duty energy rates replaced based on new data and analysis using scaled tractive power (STP) methodology o Light-duty rates updated to include 2008-2011 model year Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards for light trucks MOVES2010a o Updates to the MOVES database to reflect new data and projections for 2008 and newer light-duty energy rates ¦ Model year 2008-2010 vehicle data ¦ Model year 2011 Fuel Economy (FE) final rule projections ¦ Model year 2012-2016 LD GHG Phase 1 rule ¦ Corrections to model year 2000+ light-duty diesel energy start rates o Modifications to the organization of energy rates in MOVES database (DB) ¦ Improved consistency between energy rates and other MOVES emission rates. ¦ Redefined energy rate structure ¦ Removed engine size classes, and consolidated the loaded weight classes to a single weight class for each regulatory class ¦ Removed unused engine technologies and emission rates from the MOVES DB o Updates to the methane algorithm such that methane is calculated as a fraction of total hydrocarbons (THC) ¦ MOVES2010 methane and THC emission rates used to derive methane/THC ratios 37 ------- MOVES2014 o Medium- and heavy-duty energy rates for model year 2014 and later updated to account for the Phase 1 of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles o Light-duty energy rates for model year 2017 and later updated to account for the Light-duty EPA and NHTSA greenhouse gas and fuel economy standards (LD GHG Phase 2 FRM) MOVE S3 o The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks was incorporated for MY 2017- 2026 and forward o Updates to heavy-duty vehicle energy rates to account for the HD GHG Phase2 rule o Updated the 2010-2060 HD baseline energy rates ¦ HD diesel and CNG vehicles rates were updated based on the manufacturer-run heavy-duty in-use testing (HDIUT) program ¦ Baseline heavy-duty gasoline energy rates for 2010-2060 were updated based on the HDIUT program MOVES4 o The Revised 2023 and Later Model Year Light Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards (LD GHG 2023-2026) rule22 was incorporated, updating rates for light-duty ICE vehicles for MY2020 -2060 o Updated light-duty and heavy-duty BEV adoption rates were updated o Energy rates for Light duty BEVs were updated based on BEV modeling instead of using the same rates as gasoline vehicles o Energy rates for heavy-duty BEVs were added using EER approach based on diesel rates o Additional updates relevant to GHGs and energy such are described in the MOVES4 Emission Adjustments report. These include adjustments to account for charging efficiency, battery deterioration, cabin temperature control and the impact of electric vehicle fractions on the effective standards for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, o Heavy-duty diesel emission rates were updated to account for newer studies which show the significant impacts that selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems have onN20 emissions (Section 3.2.2.2). The nitrous oxide (N2O) emission rates for light-duty diesel and all gasoline and CNG vehicles remain the same. Carbon content and energy content updates o HD fuel cell EV EER updates o Kept constant the HD GHG Phase 2 energy reductions for regulatory class 41 stored in the EmissionRateAdjustment table for MY2025 and later at the MY2024 level MOVES5 38 ------- Updated light-duty energy consumption rates for MY 2017-2022 based on the 2023 Automotive Trends Report The LMDV2027 rule was incorporated to update light-duty and medium-duty C02 fleet average rates HD GHG Phase 3 rule was incorporated to update heavy-duty C02 fleet average rates HD EV EERs were updated based on the Phase 3 technology assessment in HD TRUCS Additional updates relevant to GHGs and energy as described in the MOVES5 Emission Adjustments report. These include the new fleet averaging algorithm update and new EV multipliers. Updated GWP values for methane and nitrous oxide consistent with the IPCC AR5 report 39 ------- Appendix B. Emission Control Technology Phase-In used for N2O Emission Rate Calculations Table B-l Control Technology Assignments for Gasoline Passenger Cars (Percent of VMT). Reproduced with exceptions from Table A-84 from Inventory of US GHG Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006 Model Years Non-Catalvst Control Oxidation Catalvst EPA Tier 0 EPA Tier 1 LEVs EPA Tier 2 1973-1974 100% 1975 20% 80% 1976-1977 15% 85% 1978-1979 10% 90% 1980 5% 88% 7% 1981 15% 85% 1982 14% 86% 1983 12% 88% 1984-1993 100% 1994 60% 40% 1995 20% 80% 1996 1% 97% 2% 1997 1% 97% 3% 1998 0% 87% 13% 1999 0% 67% 33% 2000 44% 56% 2001 3% 97% 2002 1% 99% 2003 0% 87% 13% 2004 0% 41% 59% 2005 38% 62% 2006+ 0% 100%a a We assume 100% EPA Tier 2 emission rates for model years 2006 and forward which differs from the US GHG Emissions and Sinks. 40 ------- Table B-2 Control Technology Assignments for Gasoline Light-Duty Trucks (Percent of VMT) Reproduced with exceptions from Table A-85 from Inventory of US GHG Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006. Model Years Not Controlled Non- Catalvst Control Oxidation Catalvst EPA TierO EPA Tier 1 LEVs EPA Tier 2 1973-1974 0% 100% 1975 30% 70% 1976 20% 80% 1977-1978 25% 75% 1979-1980 20% 80% 1981 95% 5% 1982 90% 10% 1983 80% 20% 1984 70% 30% 1985 60% 40% 1986 50% 50% 1987-1993 5% 95% 1994 60% 40% 1995 20% 80% 1996 100% 1997 100% 1998 80% 20% 1999 57% 43% 2000 65% 35% 2001 1% 99% 2002 10% 90% 2003 <1% 53% 47% 2004 72% 28% 2005 38% 62% 2006+ 100%a a We assume 100% EPA Tier 2 emission rates for model years 2006+, which differs from the US GHG Emissions and Sinks. 41 ------- Table B-3 Control Technology Assignments for Gasoline Heavy-Duty Vehicles (Percent of VMT) Reproduced with exceptions from Table A-86 from Inventory of US GHG Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006. Model Years Not Controlled Non- Catalvst Control Oxidation Catalvst EPA TierO EPA Tier 1 LEVs EPA Tier 2 Pre-1982 100% 1982- 1984 95% 5% 1985- 1986 95% 5% 1987 70% 15% 15% 1988- 1989 60% 25% 15% 1990- 1995 45% 30% 25% 1996 25% 10% 65% 1997 10% 5% 85% 1998 96% 4% _ 1999 78% 22% _ 2000 54% 46% _ 2001 64% 36% _ 2002 69% 31% _ 2003 65% 30% 5% 2004 5% 37% 59% 2005 23% 77% 2006+ 100%a a We assume 100% EPA Tier 2 emission rates for model years 2006+, which differs from the US GHG Emissions and Sinks. 42 ------- Table B-4 Control Technology Assignments for Diesel Highway Vehicles and Motorcycles. Reproduced with Vehicle TvDe/Control Technology Model Years Diesel Passenger Cars and Light-Duty Trucks Uncontrolled 1950-1982 Moderate control 1983-1995 Advanced control 1996- 2006+a Diesel Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks and Buses Uncontrolled 1950-1982 Moderate control 1983-1995 Advanced control 1996-2004 Motorcycles Uncontrolled 1950-1995 Non-catalyst controls 1996-2006+ a In MOVES, we continue using the 1996-2006 rates for all light-duty model years beyond 2006. The 2013 US GHG Emissions and Sinks updates the Advanced Control to up to 2011 model year vehicles, and adds a new category of diesel (aftertreatment diesel). However, the N20 emission rates of aftertreatment diesel are unchanged from advanced control.47 43 ------- Appendix C. EV ALPHA Parameters and Results To develop energy rates for light-duty battery electric vehicles, BEVs representative of the 2019 fleet, based on 2019 sales figures, were modelled in EPA's ALPHA (Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis) tool using values from the EPA test car list, manufacturer data, press releases, and other internet sources. These values are listed in Table C-l. Overall range, highway mileage, and city mileage were calculated for all selected vehicles in ALPHA, and the output was then compared to published values to determine how well each vehicle was being modeled. This is represented via the percent difference between the two values. These percentages were then averaged by sales within each category to observe how well ALPHA modeled the 2019 fleet as a whole. Those values are listed in the Table C-2. 44 ------- Table C-l: Vehicle Parameters for ALPHA Modeling Vehicle 2019 Sales 48 Battery Size (kWh) Battery Voltage Parall el Series Total Cells Max Torque Max Torque Units Max RPM Max Power Max Power Units Wheel Diameter (in) Final Drive Gear Ratio Vehicle Mass A Coeff B Coeff C Coeff Chevy Bolt 49 16,313 60 35050 3 96 288 360 J 8810 150 kW 17 7.05 3875 28.4 0.201 8 0.019 5 Tesla Model 3 51 154,84 0 53.6 36051 3 86 256 38952 Ib-ft 9000 282 Hp 18 9.04 3875 36.01 0.128 9 0.0167 Honda Clarity BEV 53 742 25.5 32354 3 88 264 222 Ib-ft 9500 161 Hp 18 9.33 3 4250 25.41 0.233 8 0.017 6 Nissan Leaf 55 12,365 40 350 2 96 192 236 Ib-ft 1039 0 147 Hp 16 8.19 3500 25.89 0.344 9 0.019 5 Fiat 500E 56 632 24 364 1 100 100 147 Ib-ft 9500 110 Hp 15 9.59 3250 24.91 0.236 5 0.018 2 Tesla Model S 57 15,090 85 320 6 74 444 440 J 1370 0 400 kW 19 9.34 4500 40.21 8 0.060 4 0.017 1 BMW i3 58 4,854 42.2 350 3 67 201 184 Ib-ft 1000 0 181 Hp 19 9.67 3375 29 0.297 0.017 8 VWe- Golf 59 4,863 35.8 323 3 88 264 214 Ib-ft 1200 0 134 Hp 16 9.74 7 3750 32.8 0.384 9 0.015 6 Tesla Model X 60 19,425 100 350 5 96 480 660 J 1230 0 400 kW 20 9.34 5250 40.32 0.099 0.021 4 Jaguar i- Pace 2,594 90.2 389 4 108 432 696 J 1300 0 294 kW 20 9.04 5000 35.70 6 0.640 2 0.017 7 MOVES Values 35.17 4 0.201 2 0.022 1 45 ------- Table C-2: Comparison of Published and Modelled Range Vehicle Published Range Test Car UDDS Test Car HWY ALPHA Range ALPHA UDDS ALPHA HWY RangeDiff UDDSDiff HWYDiff Chevy Bolt 238 182.2 157.4 193.89 207.62 142.17 -18.53% 13.95% -9.68% Tesla Model 3 220 197.3 176.6 225.28 204.77 167.73 2.40% 3.79% -5.02% Honda Clarity BEV 89 179.6 146.5 94.79 211.74 153.29 6.51% 17.90% 4.63% Nissan Leaf 150 174 141.1 121.52 209.08 133.98 -18.99% 20.16% -5.05% Fiat 500E 84 172.9 147.8 108.9 221.86 176.28 29.64% 28.32% 19.27% Tesla Model S 271 151.7 140.1 241.54 165.7 140.13 -10.87% 9.23% 0.02% BMW i3 153 177.7 145.5 144.75 211 143.47 -5.39% 18.74% -1.40% VWe- Golf 125 174.4 154 113.55 191.9 135.09 -9.16% 10.03% -12.28% Tesla Model X 305 140 130.5 238.89 151.37 119.09 -21.68% 8.12% -8.74% Jaguar i- Pace 246 114.1 102.9 198.2 150.5 107.9 -19.44% 31.88% 4.84% Fleet Sale- Weighted Avg Diffs 9.51% 10.81% 4.73% 46 ------- 6 References 1 USEPA (2024). 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