The

EPA Automotive
Trends Report

Greenhouse Gas Emissions,

Fuel Economy, and Technology
since 1975

Executive Summary

United States
jbpnl Environmental Protection
M m Agency

EPA-420-S-24-001 November 2024


-------
This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions, positions, or validation of
compliance data reported to EPA by manufacturers. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues
using data that are currently available and that may be subject to change. Historic data have been
adjusted, when appropriate, to reflect the result of compliance investigations by EPA or any other
corrections necessary to maintain data integrity.

The purpose of the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to
inform the public of technical developments. This edition of the report supersedes all previous versions.


-------
Executive Summary

This annual report is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) commitment
to provide the public with information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers' performance in meet-
ing the agency's GHG emissions standards.

Since 1975, EPA has collected data on every new light-duty vehicle model sold in the United
States either from testing performed by EPA at the National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions
Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan, or directly from manufacturers using official EPA test
procedures. These data are collected to support several important national programs, in-
cluding EPA criteria pollutant and GHG standards, the U.S. Department of Transportation's
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) standards, and vehicle Fuel Economy and Environment labels. This expansive data
set allows EPA to provide a uniquely comprehensive analysis of the automotive industry
over the last 50 years.

The carbon dioxide (C02) emissions and fuel economy data in this report fall into one of
two categories. The first is compliance data, which are measured using laboratory tests re-
quired by law for CAFE and adopted by EPA for GHG compliance. The second is estimated
real-world data, which are measured using additional laboratory tests to capture a wider
range of operating conditions (including hot and cold weather, higher speeds, and faster
accelerations) encountered by an average driver. This report shows real-world data, except
for discussions specific to GHG compliance starting with Figure ES-6 in this summary and
Section 5 of the report.

All data in this report for model years 1975 through 2023 are final and based on official
data submitted to EPA and NHTSA as part of the regulatory process. In some cases, this
report will show data for model year 2024, which are preliminary and based on data,
including projected production volumes, provided to EPA by automakers prior to releasing
vehicles for sale to the public. These data may change significantly before being finalized.

This report is also designed to provide as much transparency as possible with how manu-
facturers are performing under EPA's GHG program, including final compliance data
through model year 2023 and credit trades reported to EPA as of October 1, 2024.

To download the full report, or to explore the data using EPA's interactive data tools, visit
the report website at www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.



~
u

^7

ES-1


-------
Average new vehicle CO2 emissions and fuel economy
continue to improve, aided by growing production

of electric vehicles.

The downward trend for the average new vehicle real-world C02 emission rate continued in
model year 2023. The average model year 2023 vehicle produced 319 grams per mile (g/mi)
of C02, which is 18 g/mi less than the previous model year, and the lowest emission rate
on record. Real-world fuel economy increased by 1.1 mpg to a record high 27.1 mpg. The
trends in C02 emissions and fuel economy since 1975 are shown in Figure ES-1.

Many factors are responsible for decreasing new vehicle C02 emissions, including in-
creased production of a wide range of technologies, as shown in Figure ES-2. This includes
increased production of bat-

Figure ES-1. Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy
and C02 Emissions

tery electric vehicles (BEVs)
and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs)
which have noticeably in-
fluenced the overall trends.
Without BEVs and PHEVs,
the average new vehicle
real-world C02 emission rate
was 38 g/mi higher, and the
year over year improvement
in model year 2023 was only
1.4 g/mi.

Preliminary data suggest
that the average new vehicle
C02 emission rate and fuel
economy will continue to
improve in model year 2024,
and that the impact of BEVs
and PHEVs will continue to
grow. The preliminary model
year 2024 data are shown
in Figure ES-1 as a dot be-
cause the values are based
on manufacturer projections
rather than final data.



(3



a

cu

2

~

u

03
CD

q:

E

0)

(/)
£=
O
'(/)
CO

E

LU

o
o

T3
O

03
CD

q:

700 -

600 -

500 -

400 -

300 -

























































































357g/mi

Without
BEVs/PHEVs



























A.







319g/mi

All Vehicles
MY 2023





•





















CD

Q_

E
o
£=
O
o
LU

T3
O

28 -

24 -

20 -

2 16 -

1975 1985 1995 2005
Model Year

2015

2025

ES-2

^7


-------
Manufacturers are applying a wide array of
electrification technologies.

Innovation in the automobile industry has led to a wide array of technologies available to
manufacturers to achieve C02 emissions, fuel economy, and performance goals. Figure
ES-2 illustrates manufacturer-specific model year 2023 usage rates for technologies that
represent increasing levels of vehicle electrification, as well as the recent adoption trends
of those technologies across the industry. The technologies in Figure ES-2 are utilized by
manufacturers, in part, to reduce C02 emissions and increase fuel economy. It is also clear
that manufacturers' strategies to develop and adopt these technologies are unique and
vary significantly. Each manufacturer is choosing technologies that best meet the design
requirements of their vehicles.

Vehicles that have stop/start systems generally use a larger alternator and enhanced bat-
tery, which enables the vehicle to turn off the engine at idle to save fuel. Hybrid vehicles
use a battery to recapture braking energy and provide power when necessary, allowing for
a smaller, more efficiently operated engine. Hybrids can be separated into smaller "mild"
hybrid systems (MHEVs) that provide launch assist but cannot propel the vehicle on their
own, and "strong" hybrid systems (HEVs) that can temporarily power the vehicle without
engaging the engine. Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) have both a gasoline engine and a
battery that can be charged from an external electricity source, and generally operate on
electricity until the battery is depleted or cannot meet driving needs. Full battery electric
vehicles (BEVs) employ a battery pack that is externally charged and an electric motor ex-
clusively for propulsion, and do not have an onboard gasoline engine.

In model year 2023, gasoline vehicles with stop/start, mild hybrids, strong hybrids, PHEVs,
and BEVs all gained market share and captured their largest market shares on record. The
technologies shown in Figure ES-2, along with many others, continue to evolve and impact
many aspects of the industry. This trend will likely continue as production of mild hybrids,
strong hybrids, PHEVs, and BEVs are expected to grow across the industry in coming years.



~
u

^7

ES-3


-------
Figure ES-2. Technology Share for Large Manufacturers, Model Year 2023

100%-

75%-

§ 50%-

25%-

0%-				 ™

Diesel ICE

Gasoline ICE

Gasoline ICE
+ Stop/Start

MHEV

HEV

PHEV

BEV

Other

2015

2020

2025

Model Year



~
u

^7

ES-4


-------
Overall CO2 emissions and fuel economy trends
have been impacted by both technology
improvements and market shifts.

EPA's light-duty GHG regulations define separate standards for cars and trucks. In model
year 2023, 38% of all new vehicles were cars and 62% of all new vehicles were trucks under
the GHG regulations.1 This report further disaggregates vehicles into five vehicle types:
sedan/wagon, car SUV, truck SUV, pickup truck, and minivan/van. The distinction between
car and truck SUVs is based on the regulatory definitions of cars and trucks, such that SUVs
that are four-wheel drive (4WD) or above a weight threshold (6,000 pounds gross vehicle
weight) are generally regulated as trucks and classified as truck SUVs for this report. The
remaining two-wheel drive (2WD) SUVs are subject to car standards and classified as car
SUVs.

Figure ES-3. Production Share and C02 Emissions by Vehicle Type

0

!	

TO
_C

C/D
c
o

'-4-»

o

T3
O

100% -

75% -

50% -

25% -

0%-

Sedan/Wagon

Car SUV

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Model Year

S

w
c
o

if)

-------
In model year 2023, compared to model year 2022, the four largest vehicle types continued
their trends of reduced C02 emissions and increased fuel economy. Minivan/vans, which
accounted for less than 3% of new vehicle production in model year 2023, had C02 emis-
sions that were unchanged. Most notable is the 60 g/mi, or 24%, reduction in the average
new vehicle real-world C02 emissions within car SUVs. This improvement in C02 emissions
stems from the influx of BEVs within car SUVs, with BEVs now accounting for 36% of all MY
2023 car SUVs. The car SUV vehicle type now has the lowest average new vehicle C02 emis-
sions.

Since 1975, the market has shifted dramatically away from sedan/wagons and towards
truck SUVs and car SUVs. Until recently, the sedan/wagon was the most efficient vehicle
type, so the market shifts toward other vehicle types with lower fuel economy and higher
C02 emissions offset some of the fleetwide benefits that otherwise would have been
achieved from the improvements within each vehicle type. However, the growth of electric
vehicles, particularly within the car SUV vehicle type, is changing the relationship between
vehicle types and overall average new vehicle real-world C02 emissions.

Average new vehicle fuel economy, horsepower,
weight, and footprint are all increasing.

Overall vehicle trends are influenced both by vehicle technology, and by the changes in the
distribution of vehicles being produced. For gasoline (and diesel) vehicles, increased weight,
size, or horsepower is likely to result in higher C02 emissions and lower fuel economy, all
else being equal. For BEVs, increased weight, size, or horsepower will impact the vehicle's
efficiency (as measured in kilowatt hours per 100 miles or miles per gallon of gasoline
equivalent), however BEVs produce zero tailpipe emissions regardless of their weight, size,
or horsepower. The growth of BEV production could also impact the fleet's overall fuel
economy, horsepower, and weight trends, as BEVs are on average more efficient, more
powerful, and heavier than comparable vehicles.

Over the history of this report, there have been three distinct phases, as shown in Figure
ES-4. Between 1975 and the early 1980s, average new vehicle fuel economy increased rap-
idly, while the vehicle weight and horsepower fell. For the next twenty years, average new
vehicle weight and horsepower steadily increased, while fuel economy steadily decreased.



~
u

^7

ES-6


-------
Model year 2004 was another inflection point, after which fuel economy, horsepower, and
weight have all generally increased together, to historic highs in model year 2023. These
more recent trends have been driven by market shifts towards heavier, more powerful
vehicle types and technology changes within each vehicle type which have generally in-
creased fuel economy, horsepower, and weight. Vehicle size, measured as the "footprint" or
area enclosed by the four tires, has also been generally increasing since EPA began track-
ing it in 2008. PHEVs and BEVs did not significantly change the average vehicle footprint in
model year 2023.

Figure ES-4. Percent Change in Real-World Fuel Economy,
Horsepower, Weight, and Footprint

100%

75%

r-

CD

0
o

(§ 50%

0
cn
c
CO
_c
O

25%

0%

-25%





















•









Real-World Fue

Economy





/•



































Horsepower

























Weight





^9

















































1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

oo
o
o

CN

0
O
c

W

0

g5 -15%

CO
_c

O

15%-
0%-







































Footprint

	¦ •



















































1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Model Year



(3



a

m

2

~
u



ES-7


-------
Most manufacturers improved CO2 emissions
and fuel economy over the last 5 years.

Manufacturer trends over the last five years are shown in Figure ES-5. This span covers
the approximate length of a vehicle redesign cycle, and it is likely that most vehicles have
undergone design changes in this period, resulting in a more accurate depiction of recent
manufacturer trends than focusing on a single year. Differences in manufacturer C02 emis-
sion rates and fuel economy over this period can be attributed to changes in both vehicle
design, and the mix of vehicle types produced.

Over the last five years, nine of the fourteen largest manufacturers selling vehicles in the
U.S. decreased new vehicle estimated real-world C02 emission rates. Tesla was unchanged
because their all-electric fleet produces no tailpipe C02 emissions. Between model years
2018 and 2023, Mercedes achieved the largest reduction in C02 emissions, at 73 g/mi.
Volkswagen (VW) achieved the second largest reduction in overall C02 tailpipe emissions, at
44 g/mi, and BMW had the third largest reduction in overall C02 tailpipe emissions at 34 g/
mi. All three of these companies achieved emission reductions across all vehicle types they
produce. Ford, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Stellantis, and Toyota also achieved overall emission
reductions.

Four manufacturers increased new vehicle C02 emission rates between model years 2018
and 2023 (Honda, Mazda, GM, and Subaru). Honda had the largest increase at 18 g/mi.
Mazda had the second largest increase at 12 g/mi, and General Motors (GM) had the third
largest increase at 11 g/mi. The increase in emissions for Honda was due to a shift in pro-
duction towards truck SUVs and pickups along with increases in the emission rates within
both of those vehicle types compared to model year 2018. The increase in emissions for
Mazda was due entirely to a shift from 36% to 89% truck SUV production.

For model year 2023 alone, Tesla's all-electric fleet had the lowest tailpipe C02 emissions of
all large manufacturers at 0 g/mi. Tesla was followed by Kia at 289 g/mi, Hyundai at 292 g/
mi, and Mecedes at 304 g/mi. At 402 g/mi, Stellantis had the highest new vehicle average
C02 emissions and lowest fuel economy of the large manufacturers in model year 2023,
followed by GM at 396 g/mi and Ford at 374g/mi. Tesla also had the highest overall fuel
economy, followed by Kia, Hyundai, and Nissan.

Figure ES-5 is organized according to increasing fuel economy values, but the order would
change if based on C02 emission rates. This is because BEVs and PHEVs have a different re-
lationship between tailpipe emissions and fuel economy than other vehicles, and because
manufacturers have different rates of adoption of BEVs and PHEVs.



~
u

^7

ES-8


-------
Figure ES-5. Changes in Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy2 and C02 Emissions for Large Manufacturers

Fuel Economy (MPG), 2018 - 2023

CO Emissions (g/mi), 2018 - 2023

Tesla

Kia -
Hyundai -
Nissan -
Subaru -
Honda -
BMW -
Mazda -
Toyota -
Mercedes -
VW -
Ford -
GM -
Stellantis -
All Manufacturers -





11° 7

w 1 on p



>0























105

110

115

120



i

50

100

150







2

7 8

W on a











98 fi	W7Q 8









271



>°8 9











28

4-<28.7
3 < 30 0











28.:









>R n

7.6

—28.7

5











.6^







25















.5





94 R

w -

!7.0















22.4^-23.0
21.7>-21.8



































25.1

	~

27.1











319

1







292**

30

31

9QR-

	31















0>31
—^3

i







14







30







no—3

32:

~322









18





30



?77





















OQ 1

397
96

>*<¦409









yj ! £f

386-^3
402



















319

<	

353







20

24

28

32

300

350

400

450



(3



a

cu

1

~

u

K J



2 Electric vehicles, including Tesla's all-electric fleet, are measured in terms of miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent, or mpge.

ES-9


-------
Through the model year 2023 reporting period,
all large manufacturers are in compliance with
the light-duty GHG program requirements.

EPA's GHG program is an averaging, banking, and trading (ABT) program. An ABT program
means that the standards may be met on a fleet average basis, manufacturers may earn
and bank credits to use later, and manufacturers may trade credits with other manufac-
turers.3 This provides manufacturers flexibility in meeting the standards while accounting
for vehicle design cycles, introduction rates of new technologies and emission improve-
ments, and evolving consumer preferences.

Figure ES-6. GHG Credit Balance for Large Manufacturers, after Model
Year 2023

Honda -
Stellantis -
Toyota -
Subaru -
Ford -
GM -
Nissan -
Mercedes -
Hyundai -
BMW -
Tesla -
Mazda -
Volkswagen -
Kia -

| Credits
j Credits
Credits
Credits
Credits
Deficits
Deficits

Expiring 2028
Expiring 2027
Expiring 2026
Expiring 2025
Expiring 2024
from 2023
from 2022

10	20

GHG Credits (Tg of C02)

30

40



(3



a

m

2

~

u



3 Credits accrued under EPA's light-duty GHG program are transferable between pas-
senger car and light truck fleets, across model years, and between manufacturers as
defined in Title 40 CFR Part 86. The NHTSA CAFE program also includes ABT provisions,
but additional credit transfer limitations apply.

ES-10


-------
Within a model year, manufacturers with average fleet emissions lower than the standards
generate credits, and manufacturers with average fleet emissions higher than the stan-
dards generate deficits. Any manufacturer with a deficit at the end of the model year has
up to three years to offset the deficit with credits earned in future model years or pur-
chased from another manufacturer. A manufacturer may not report any deficits for more
than 3 years in a row.

Eleven of the fourteen largest manufacturers ended model year 2023 with positive or zero
credit balances and are thus in compliance for model year 2023 and all previous years
of the GHG program, as credits may not be carried forward unless deficits from all prior
model years have been resolved. Volkswagen and Mazda ended model year 2023 with a
deficit and must offset their deficits by the model year 2026 reporting period to remain in
compliance. Kia ended model year 2023 with a deficit, which is their third straight model
year reporting a deficit. Kia must offset all deficits by the model year 2024 reporting period
to remain in compliance.

Total credits in Figure ES-6 are shown in Teragrams (Tg; one million Megagrams), and ac-
count for manufacturer performance compared to their standards, expected vehicle life-
time miles driven, and the number of vehicles produced by each manufacturer, for all years
of the GHG program. The credits accumulated by each manufacturer will be carried for-
ward for use in future model years or until they expire. Credit expiration dates are based
on the model year in which they were earned.

Manufacturers used different combinations of
technology improvements and credit strategies

in model year 2023.

Determining manufacturer compliance with EPA's GHG program requires accounting for a
manufacturer's credit balance over the life of the program. However, it is also useful to look
at manufacturer performance within the most recent model year. Figure ES-7 illustrates
the performance of individual large manufacturers in model year 2023 compared to their
effective overall standard, in terms of an average vehicle grams per mile emission rate. This
"snapshot" provides insight into how the large manufacturers performed against the stan-
dards in model year 2023, however it cannot be used to determine individual manufacturer
compliance status with the overall program.

Tesla and BMW ended model year 2023 with their average new vehicle GHG emissions per-
formance below their respective standards. This result, combined with the fact that these
manufacturers all had a credit balance at the end of model year 2022, allowed these manu-

ES-11

(3



a

cu

2

~
u

^7


-------
facturers to achieve compliance with the GHG program through model year 2023 and bank
or sell additional credits in model year 2023.

Twelve of the fourteen large manufacturers ended model year 2023 with emission per-
formance exceeding their overall standard. Nine of these manufacturers used banked or
purchased credits, along with technology improvements, to achieve compliance in model
year 2023. As noted above, Kia, VW, and Mazda ended the model year with deficits, but the
program allows manufacturers up to three years to offset any deficits and remain in com-
pliance.

The manufacturer performance values shown in Figure ES-7 are based on the average new
vehicle tailpipe emissions for each manufacturer and include optional credits available to
manufacturers in model year 2023. Credits can be created through an advanced technol-
ogy multiplier for each electric vehicle or plug-in hybrid produced, improved air condition-
ing systems, or technologies that are not directly measured on standard EPA tests (off-cycle
credits). These credits vary between manufacturers, but the industry averaged 4.1 g/mi
credits due to the advanced technology multiplier, 21.2 g/mi of credits due to improved air
conditioning systems, and 8.6 g/mi of credits due to off-cycle technologies. Tesla produces
electric vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions, but also claimed credits for advanced tech-
nology vehicles, air conditioning improvements, and off-cycle technologies to achieve the
negative performance value shown in Figure ES-7.

Figure ES-7. C02 Performance and Standards by Manufacturer, Model Year 2023

E

3

O
x

o


-------
Overall, the industry used credits to maintain
compliance, and there remains a large bank
of credits for future years.

The industry ended model year 2023 with a credit balance of 123 Tg. This credit balance
is the result of the overall industry performance against the standards within each model
year, as well as the generation of early credits, credit expirations, and the sum of all credit
averaging, banking, and trading allowed by EPA's GHG program. Under the GHG Program,
manufacturers were able to accrue "early credits," before the GHG standards took effect in
model year 2012, for early deployment of efficient vehicles and technology. Overall, the in-
dustry was able to accrue a large volume of credits due to this provision, although some of
these credits had restrictions on their use, and all credits have regulatory expiration dates.
In model years 2012 through 2014, manufacturers continued to generate credits, as the
industry GHG performance was below the industry-wide average standard. At the end of
model year 2014, unused early credits generated from model year 2009 expired, which re-
duced the overall credit balance. In model year 2015, the industry again generated credits,
however from model year 2016-2021 the industry GHG performance was above the stan-
dard, resulting in net withdrawals from the bank of credits to maintain compliance. Unused
credits generated in model years 2010-2016 expired at the end of model year 2021, and
unused credits from model year 2017 expired at the end of model year 2023, which fur-
ther drew down the overall industry credit balance. In addition, GM retired 49 Tg of credits,
most from model year 2016, pursuant to a resolution with EPA regarding in-use verification
program testing results.

In model year 2023, the overall industry GHG performance value decreased 18 g/mi to 215
g/mi, while the standard fell 23 g/mi to 212 g/mi. As a result, the overall industry perfor-
mance was above the standard, and the industry generated 11 Tg of deficits. An additional
0.5 Tg of credits expired. The overall industry emerged from model year 2023 with a bank
of 123 Tg of GHG credits available for future use, after offsetting all deficits, as seen in Fig-
ure ES-8.

The credits available at the end of model year 2023 will expire according to the schedule
defined by the GHG Program and detailed in Section 5 of this report. An active credit mar-
ket has allowed manufacturers to purchase credits to demonstrate compliance, with fifteen
manufacturers selling credits, twenty manufacturers purchasing credits, and approximately
140 credit trades since 2012. As of October 1, 2023, about 270 Tg of credits have been
traded between manufacturers.



~
u

^7

ES-13


-------
Figure ES-8. Industry Performance and Standards, and Overall Credit
Balance

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

300

200

100

43

42

33

227

$/$//.
$/$//.
$/$//.
$/$//.
$/$//.
$/$//.
$/$//.
$/$//.
$/$//.

/Y//j....
¦////////.

25

-69
Expiration of

unused
2009 credits

-70

I

Credit or Deficit
I Credit
Deficit

-16

-23

-17

-3

1 3 -11

-39
Expiration of
unused
2010-2016 credits

123

Early 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Carry
Credits	to 2024

Model Year



(3



a

cu I

2

CO





ES-14


-------
The automobile industry continues to
innovate, improve, and meet the GHG standards.

The analysis here is a snapshot of the data collected by EPA in support of several important
regulatory programs and is presented with the intent of providing as much transparency
to the public as possible. The data show the change and innovation in the industry since
model year 1975, and the manufacturers' performance under EPA's GHG standards.

To download the full report, or to explore the data using EPA's interactive data tools, visit
the report webpage at https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.



~
u

^7

ES-15


-------