Marine Species Distribution Identification 1. Indicator Description This indicator examines changes in the distribution offish and invertebrate species in North American oceans from 1974 to 2019. Marine animals are sensitive to the physical conditions of their environment, including water temperature. Changes in the temperature of ocean water could result in animals moving to areas of the ocean beyond their historical ranges. This indicator uses data from large fish-sampling surveys to determine the average geographic position (i.e., latitude, longitude, and depth) for the entire population of one or more species. In general, deeper or more northerly waters tend to be colder. Movement of individual species, or groups of species, to these areas may be a natural outcome of fish seeking cooler water. Such shifts have implications for interspecies competition, the economics of fishing, and overall ocean ecosystem health. Components of this indicator include: • The annual average change in the latitude and depth of the center of distribution for 180 North American marine species from 1974 to 2019 (Figure 1). • Year-to-year movement of three selected species in the Northeast from 1974 to 2019 (Figure 2). • Year-to-year movement of three selected species in the eastern Bering Sea from 1982 to 2019 (Figure 3). • Year-to-year movement of three selected species in the Southeast from 1989 to 2019 (Figure 4). 2. Revision History August 2016: Indicator published. April 2021: Updated indicator with data through 2019. February 2023: Updated data source and added Southeast as a new region for analysis (Figure 4). Data Sources 3. Data Sources This indicator is based on data from research trawl surveys conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). Survey results have been processed and managed most recently by NOAA and published in various peer-reviewed studies, including Pinsky et al. (2013) and the U.S. Global Change Research Program's National Climate Assessment (USGCRP, 2018). Mike Kolian of EPA developed this indicator in collaboration with Roger Griffis of NOAA and Malin Pinsky of Rutgers University. Technical Documentation: Marine Species Distribution 1 ------- 4. Data Availability All data for this indicator are available from the Distribution Mapping and Analysis Portal (DisMAP) website at: https://apps-st.fisheries.noaa.gov/dismap/DisMAP.html. This website provides query tools and data descriptions. It is maintained by the NOAA NMFS Office of Science and Technology. At the time of publication, data were available through 2019 for all regions. Methodology 5. Data Collection This indicator is based on data collected through research trawl surveys that NMFS conducts annually along various parts of the U.S. continental shelf. These bottom trawl surveys involve dragging a large net at a set depth behind a research vessel for a set time and distance. The trawl haul is brought aboard the vessel, where scientists sort the catch by species and record their size and abundance. They may also record additional information such as sex, maturity, and evidence of disease. Species recorded include fish (particularly fish that live near the ocean floor), shellfish, and other invertebrates such as sea stars, anemones, and ascidians (sea squirts). NMFS conducts systematic trawl surveys on a regular basis to provide information for use in fisheries management. In the Northeast, for example, NMFS conducts 300 half-hour trawl sets at random sites in both spring and fall. The length of trawl survey records varies by region. Some of the first NOAA survey trawling vessels in the Northeast were in use as early as 1948 (the Albatross III) and 1950 (the Delaware). Regular collection of surveys began in the 1960s in the Northeast, the late 1970s along the West Coast, and the 1980s in coastal Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. For more information about NMFS bottom trawl surveys, see: www.fisheries.noaa.gov/about/northeast- ecosystems-surveys. Pinsky et al. (2013) and the references therein describe sampling methods in additional detail. 6. Indicator Derivation This indicator focuses on the center of biomass for each species, which is the biomass centroid of the population distribution at any point in time. The centroid is a common way to characterize the general location of a population. The centroid for a particular species represents the point (latitude, longitude, and depth) that is in the geographic center of the total "weight" of the entire population of that species. For example, the latitude of a species' centroid means that half of the total biomass (or weight) of that species was caught north of that latitude, while half was caught south of that latitude. As a result, if a population were to shift generally northward, the biomass centroid would be expected to shift northward as well. Tracking the depth of the centroid is also useful, as it also indicates whether marine species are shifting to deeper and presumably cooler waters. The analyses presented in this indicator focus on three areas: the Northeast, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Southeast. Although data have also been collected from the Gulf of Mexico, the West Coast, and other parts of Alaska, these regions were excluded for one or both of the following reasons: Technical Documentation: Marine Species Distribution 2 ------- • Data for several of these areas were too sparse to support meaningful long-term trend analysis. Some of these areas have only been sampled every few years—not annually—or have not had consistent survey methods in use over the course of several decades. • Some of these regions—for example, the Gulf of Mexico—have coastlines that would prevent marine species from moving northward in response to warming waters. Such physical barriers mean that the data from these regions cannot be used to test the hypothesis that coastal species are moving northward in response to warming water. Northeast data come from spring surveys, which have historically been more complete than fall surveys. Northeast time series in this indicator start in 1974, which is when spring surveys in the Northeast became systematized. Data from the eastern Bering Sea come from summer surveys that have been conducted consistently since 1982. Southeast data come from spring surveys that have been conducted consistently since 1989. Figure 1. Change in Latitude and Depth of Marine Species, 1974-2019 Figure 1 shows the latitude and depth of the average center of biomass for each year, averaged across all 180 Northeast, eastern Bering Sea, and Southeast species that had sufficient data available (i.e., species that were routinely caught in sufficiently large numbers to estimate a centroid). The figure also shows region-specific averages, with the Northeast consisting of 53 species, the eastern Bering Sea consisting of 64 species, and the Southeast consisting of 63 species. Both metrics are based on an unweighted average of all species. Thus, no adjustments are made for population differences across species. EPA converted northward distance from latitude to miles using a conversion factor of 69 miles per degree. Although the length of a degree of latitude is fairly standard worldwide (unlike longitude, which shrinks as one moves poleward), there are slight differences because the Earth is not a perfect sphere. Many sources, however, use 69 as a reasonable approximation for unit conversion. Both parts of Figure 1 show cumulative change since the first year of data. For comparison, all regions and the multi- region aggregation use a common reference year of 1989, which is set to zero. Thus, a negative value indicates a more southerly latitude or a shallower depth compared with 1989. Figures 2, 3, and 4. Average Locations of Three Fish and Shellfish Species in the Northeast, 1974-2019; the Bering Sea, 1982-2019; and the Southeast, 1989-2019 Figures 2, 3, and 4 show the positions of the biomass centroids for three species in each region of interest. Each species was selected for some or all of the following reasons, based on recommendations from NOAA experts: • These species represent a variety of habitats and taxonomic groups, including two benthic invertebrates (lobster and snow crab). • These species are thought to be minimally affected by factors such as overfishing and associated population rebound effect, which may influence their population centers. • These species are present throughout the region in consistently large numbers across the time period. Technical Documentation: Marine Species Distribution 3 ------- • These species have been highlighted in other peer-reviewed studies using survey data that examine distribution shifts. • Several of these species are important for commercial, sport, and/or subsistence fisheries. For example, walleye pollock is one of the nation's largest commercial fisheries; Pacific halibut is a large commercial and sport fishery; and American lobster is a large fishery and an iconic part of the culture and cuisine of New England. The maps in Figures 2, 3, and 4 show the annual position of each species using the latitude and longitude calculations provided by the data source. Individual years are identified by the saturation of the color scale indicated in the legend. Lighter colors represent an earlier point in the time series, whereas darker colors represent later years. The depth component to this indicator is not depicted on either map. The small graphs to the right of each map show each species' northward/southward movement in miles, using the same distance conversion and cumulative position approach as Figure 1. Indicator Development Before data were disseminated through DisMAP, EPA obtained the data through the OceanAdapt program at Rutgers University, which processed and managed the data and made them available at: https://github.com/pinskylab/OceanAdapt/tree/master/data clean. The original version of this indicator reported Northeast trends starting in 1968. Since then, retroactive data reviews identified some concerns with inconsistent spring sampling of strata from 1968 to 1973. Therefore, to ensure the integrity of the results, pre-1974 data were removed from the main database and from the analysis that feeds into this indicator. Earlier versions of this indicator reported national averages based on a smaller number of species (e.g., 105) drawn only from the Northeast and the eastern Bering Sea. As more species are observed, sometimes in new places, the number of species available to be included in regional averages can be expected to increase over time. The number of species in the composite national average is meant to be representative of species data that are available over the full time period (1989-present) common to all three regions. 7. Quality Assurance and Quality Control NOAA scientists and other experts have performed several statistical analyses to ensure that potential error and variability are adequately addressed. These analyses and results are described in NOAA (2022). For more information about methods to ensure data quality in NMFS's bottom trawl surveys, see resources linked from: www.fisheries.noaa.gov/about/northeast-ecosvstems-surveys. Analysis 8. Comparability Over Time and Space Trawl surveys have been conducted since at least the 1950s in some regions, but the data used in this indicator begin in 1974 for the Northeast, 1982 for the eastern Bering Sea, and 1989 for the Southeast. These start dates ensure comparable data collection over the entire period of study, including sufficient sample sizes and consistent methods, survey design, and frequency. Figure 1 begins in 1974, and it uses a consistent set of 180 widely measured species. Technical Documentation: Marine Species Distribution 4 ------- 9. Data Limitations Factors that may impact the confidence, application, or conclusions drawn from this indicator are as follows: 1. Water temperature is not the only factor that can cause marine animal populations to shift. Other factors could include interactions with other species, harvesting, ocean circulation patterns, habitat change, and species' ability to disperse and adapt. As a result, species might have moved northward for reasons other than, or in addition to, changes associated with climate. 2. This indicator does not show how responses to climate change vary among different types or groups of marine species. For example, there are likely to be large differences among species, which have varying abilities to adapt to temperature changes. Some species could have moved significantly in one direction while others moved in the opposite direction or did not have a discernible change. 3. Some data variations are caused by differences between surveys, such as variation in start and end locations of the surveys. Such differences, however, are not expected to unduly influence the results of this analysis. 4. By focusing on the center of biomass for each species, this indicator does not characterize the complete range that each individual species inhabits and how the shape of that range may be changing. For example, northward movement of the centroid for American lobster does not reveal whether the northern range of the lobster is expanding, the southern edge is contracting, both, or neither. 5. The biomass centroid metric relies not only population, but also on the weight of individuals. Thus, if a fish population were to benefit from large feedstocks in one area, but suffer from a lack of food in another, the biomass centroid could shift in the "healthy" direction regardless of a change in population. 6. NMFS follows general boundaries for conducting its surveys. If populations of one or more species were to move outside of the study area, this would affect the location of the biomass centroid in a way that the indicator would not detect accurately. 10. Sources of Uncertainty The sources of uncertainty in this indicator have been analyzed, quantified, and accounted for to the extent possible. The statistical significance of the trends suggests that the conclusions drawn from this indicator are robust. One potential source of uncertainty in these data is uneven geographic sampling among surveys. Basic information on analytical methods can be found in NOAA (2022), including methods that have been used to account for variability in survey collection data. Technical Documentation: Marine Species Distribution 5 ------- 11. Sources of Variability Rare or difficult-to-observe marine species could lead to increased variability. Figure 1 addresses this concern by focusing on 180 widely observed species, while Figures 2, 3, and 4 address this concern by focusing on a smaller set of relatively common species. 12. Statistical/Trend Analysis NOAA (2022) documents the statistical significance of distribution shifts for each species. Using annual data points, EPA applied an ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression to determine long-term trends in movement for all species in Figure 1 and for each individual species in Figures 2, 3, and 4. Table TD-1 shows the slope and statistical significance of each trend. Northward movement of the combined set of 180 species in Figure 1 was significant to a 95 percent level, as was the northward movement of all highlighted species in the Northeast, Bering Sea, and Southeast. Regression slopes were multiplied by the length of the period of record to estimate the total movement described in the "Key Points" section of this indicator. EPA used Sen's slope analysis to verify the apparent trends; the Sen slope results matched the OLS regression results in sign and approximate magnitude. Table TD-1. Linear Regression of Annual Centers of Biomass Species Common name Time- frame Variable OLS trend (per year) P- value Significan tto a 95% level? Sen's slope trend (per year) All 180 species across all three regions 1989- 2019 Latitude (miles) 0.546 < 0.001 Yes 0.588 All 180 species across all three regions 1989- 2019 Depth (feet) 0.016 0.786 No 0.002 All Eastern Bering Sea species 1982- 2019 Latitude (miles) 0.263 < 0.001 Yes 0.272 All Eastern Bering Sea species 1982- 2019 Depth (feet) -0.093 0.0833 No -0.104 All Northeast species 1974- 2019 Latitude (miles) 1.19 < 0.001 Yes 1.20 All Northeast species 1974- 2019 Depth (feet) 1.19 < 0.001 Yes 1.15 Technical Documentation: Marine Species Distribution 6 ------- Species Common name Time- frame Variable OLS trend (per year) P- value Significan tto a 95% level? Sen's slope trend (per year) All Southeast species 1989- 2019 Latitude (miles) 0.449 0.01 Yes 0.477 All Southeast species 1989- 2019 Depth (feet) 0.0243 0.0473 Yes -0.0240 Homarus americanus America n lobster 1974- 2019 Latitude (miles) 3.41 < 0.001 Yes 3.30 Centropristis striata Black sea bass 1974- 2019 Latitude (miles) 3.76 < 0.001 Yes 3.86 Urophycis chuss Red hake 1974- 2019 Latitude (miles) 1.96 < 0.001 Yes 2.06 Gadus chalcogrammu s Walleye pollock 1982- 2019 Latitude (miles) 1.22 < 0.001 Yes 1.17 Hippoglossus stenolepis Pacific halibut 1982- 2019 Latitude (miles) 1.35 < 0.001 Yes 1.30 Chionoecetes opilio Snow crab 1982- 2019 Latitude (miles) 0.874 < 0.001 Yes 0.827 Gymnura micrura Smooth butterfly ray 1989- 2019 Latitude (miles) 7.47 < 0.001 Yes 6.46 Larimus fasciatus Banded drum 1989- 2019 Latitude (miles) 6.24 < 0.001 Yes 5.90 Micropogonias undulatus Atlantic croaker 1989- 2019 Latitude (miles) 2.75 < 0.001 Yes 1.24 References NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2022. DisMAP data records. Accessed July 2022. https://apps-st.fisheries.noaa.gov/dismap/DisMAP.html. Pinsky, M.L., B. Worm, M.J. Fogarty, J.L. Sarmiento, and S.A. Levin. 2013. Marine taxa track local climate velocities. Science 341(6151):1239-1242. USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program). 2018. Impacts, risks, and adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, volume II. Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart, eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program. www.globalchange.gov/nca4. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH9 Technical Documentation: Marine Species Distribution 7 ------- |