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Technical Support Document (TSD): Preparation of
Emissions Inventories for the 2022vl North American
Emissions Modeling Platform


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EPA-454/B-25-001
May 2025

Technical Support Document (TSD) Preparation of Emissions Inventories for the 2022vl North American

Emissions Modeling Platform

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Air Quality Assessment Division
Research Triangle Park, NC


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Authors:

Alison Eyth (EPA/OAR)
Jeff Vukovich (EPA/OAR)
Caroline Farkas (EPA/OAR)
Janice Godfrey (EPA/OAR)

Karl Seltzer (EPA/OAR)
Lindsay Dayton (EPA/OAR)
Yijia Dietrich (EPA/OAR)


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES	VIII

LIST OF FIGURES	XI

ACRONYMS	XII

1	INTRODUCTION	15

2	BASE YEAR EMISSIONS INVENTORIES AND APPROACHES	17

2.1	Point sources (ptegu, pt_oilgas, ptnonipm, airports)	22

2.1.1	EGU sector (ptegu)	24

2.1.2	Point source oil and gas sector (pt_oilgas)	26

2.1.3	Aircraft and ground support equipment (airports)	28

2.1.4	Non-IPM sector (ptnonipm)	29

2.2	NonpointSOURCES (afdust, fertilizer, livestock, np_oilgas, rwc, np_solvents, nonpt)	29

2.2.1	Area fugitive dust sector (afdust)	30

2.2.2	Agricultural Livestock (livestock)	36

2.2.3	Agricultural Fertilizer (fertilizer)	36

2.2.4	Nonpoint Oil and Gas Sector (np_oilgas)	39

2.2.5	Residential Wood Combustion (rwc)	43

2.2.6	Solvents (np_solvents)	45

2.2.7	Open burning (openburn)	45

2.2.8	Nonpoint (nonpt)	45

2.3	Onroad Mobile sources (onroad)	47

2.3.1	Inventory Development using SMOKE-MOVES	47

2.3.2	Onroad Activity Data Development	50

2.3.3	MOVES Emission Factor Table Development	52

2.3.4	Onroad California Inventory Development (onroad_ca_adj)	55

2.4	Nonroad Mobile sources (cmv, rail, nonroad)	56

2.4.1	Category 1, Category 2 Commercial Marine Vessels (cmv_clc2)	56

2.4.2	Category 3 Commercial Marine Vessels (cmv_c3)	62

2.4.3	Railway Locomotives (rail)	67

2.4.4	Nonroad Mobile Equipment (nonroad)	73

2.5	Fires (ptfire-rx, ptfire-wild, ptagfire)	75

2.5.1	Wild and Prescribed Fires (ptfire-rx, ptfire-wild)	76

2.5.2	Point source Agriculture Fires (ptagfire)	83

2.6	Biogenic Sources (beis)	84

2.7	Sources Outside ofthe UnitedStates	87

2.7.1	Point Sources in Canada and Mexico (canmex_point)	88

2.7.2	Fugitive Dust Sources in Canada (canada_afdust, canada_ptdust)	88

2.7.3	Agricultural Sources in Canada and Mexico (canmex_ag)	89

2.7.4	Surface-level Oil and Gas Sources in Canada (canada_og2D)	89

2.7.5	Nonpoint and Nonroad Sources in Canada and Mexico (canmex_area)	89

2.7.6	Onroad Sources in Canada and Mexico (canada_onroad, mexico_onroad)	89

2.7.7	Fires in Canada and Mexico (ptfire_othna)	89

2.7.8	Ocean Chlorine, Ocean Sea Salt, and Volcanic Mercury	90

3	EMISSIONS MODELING	91

3.1	Emissions Modeling Overview	91

3.2	Chemical Speciation	95

3.2.1	VOC speciation	100

3.2.2	PM speciation	105

3.2.2.1 Diesel PM	105

3.2.3	NOx speciation	105

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3.2.4	Sulfuric Acid Vapor (SULF)	106

3.2.5	Speciation of Metals and Mercury	107

3.3	Temporal Allocation	108

3.3.1	Use of FF10 format for finer than annual emissions	110

3.3.2	Temporal allocation for non-EGU sources (ptnonipm)	110

3.3.3	Electric Generating Utility temporal allocation (ptegu)	Ill

3.3.4	Airport Temporal allocation (airports)	115

3.3.5	Residential Wood Combustion Temporal allocation (rwc)	118

3.3.6	Agricultural Ammonia Temporal Profiles (livestock)	122

3.3.7	Oil and gas temporal allocation (np_oilgas)	124

3.3.8	Onroad mobile temporal allocation (onroad)	124

3.3.9	Nonroad mobile temporal allocation (nonroad)	129

3.3.10	Fugitive dust temporal profiles (afdust)	130

3.3.11	Additional sector specific details (beis, cmv, rail, nonpt, np_solvents, ptfire-rx, ptfire-wild)	131

3.4	Spatial Allocation	133

3.4.1	Spatial Surrogates for U.S. emissions	133

3.4.2	Allocation method for airport-related sources in the U.S	148

3.4.3	Surrogates for Canada and Mexico emission inventories	148

4 ANALYTIC YEAR EMISSIONS INVENTORIES AND APPROACHES	159

4.1	EGU PointSource Projections (ptegu)	163

4.2	Sectors with Projections Computed using CoST	165

4.2.1	Background on the Control Strategy Tool (CoST)	166

4.2.2	CoST CLOSURE Packet (ptnonipm, pt_oilgas)	170

4.2.3	CoST PROJECTION Packets (afdust, airports, cmv, livestock, nonpt, np_oilgas, np_solvents, ptnonipm, pt_oilgas,
rail) 171

4.2.3.1	Fugitive dust growth (afdust)	171

4.2.3.2	Airport sources (airports)	173

4.2.3.3	Category 1, Category 2 Commercial Marine Vessels (cmv_clc2)	174

4.2.3.4	Category 3 Commercial Marine Vessels (cmv_c3)	176

4.2.3.5	Livestock population growth (livestock)	177

4.2.3.6	Nonpoint Sources (nonpt)	178

4.2.3.7	Solvents (np_solvents)	189

4.2.3.8	Oil and Gas Sources (np_oilgas, pt_oilgas)	190

4.2.3.9	Non-EGU point sources (ptnonipm)	193

4.2.3.10	Railroads (rail)	194

4.2.3.11	Residential Wood Combustion (rwc)	195

4.2.4	CoST CONTROL Packets (nonpt, np_oilgas, ptnonipm, pt_oilgas, np_solvents)	195

4.2.4.1	Oil and Gas NSPS (np_oilgas, pt_oilgas)	197

4.2.4.2	RICE NSPS (nonpt, ptnonipm, np_oilgas, pt_oilgas)	201

4.2.4.3	Organic Liquids Distribution NESHAP (ptnonipm)	204

4.2.4.4	Natural Gas Turbines NOx NSPS (ptnonipm, pt_oilgas)	204

4.2.4.5	Process Heaters NOx NSPS (ptnonipm, pt_oilgas)	206

4.2.4.6	State-specific controls (nonpt, np_solvents, ptnonipm)	209

4.3	Sectors with Projections Computed Outside of CoST	210

4.3.1	Nonroad Mobile Equipment Sources (nonroad)	210

4.3.2	Onroad Mobile Sources (onroad)	211

4.3.3	Sources Outside of the United States (canada_onroad, mexico_onroad, canmex_point, canmex_ag, canada_og2D,
ptfire_othna, canmex_area, canada_afdust, canada_ptdust)	213

4.3.3.1	Canadian fugitive dust sources (canada_afdust, canada_ptdust)	213

4.3.3.2	Point Sources in Canada and Mexico (canmex_point, canada_og2D)	213

4.3.3.3	Nonpoint sources in Canada and Mexico (canmex_area, canmex_ag)	213

4.3.3.4	Onroad sources in Canada and Mexico (canada_onroad, canada_onroad)	214

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5	EMISSION SUMMARIES	215

6	REFERENCES	220

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List of Tables

Table 2-1. Platform sectors used in the Emissions Modeling Process	18

Table 2-2. Point source oil and gas sector NAICS Codes	26

Table 2-3. Point source oil and gas sector emissions for 2022	27

Table 2-4. SCCs for the airports sector	28

Table 2-5. Afdust sector SCCs	30

Table 2-6. Total impact of 2022 fugitive dust adjustments to the unadjusted inventory	31

Table 2-7. SCCs for the livestock sector	36

Table 2-8. Source of input variables for EPIC	38

Table 2-9. Nonpoint oil and gas emissions for 2022	39

Table 2-10. State emissions totals for year 2022 for Pipeline Blowdowns and Pigging sources	41

Table 2-11. State emissions totals for year 2022 for Abandoned Wells sources	42

Table 2-12. SCCs for the residential wood combustion sector	44

Table 2-13. SCCs in the openburn sector	45

Table 2-14. Datasets used to Develop Factors to Adjust Nonpoint Emissions from 2020 to 2022	46

Table 2-15. MOVES vehicle (source) types	48

Table 2-16. The fraction of IHS vehicle populations retained for 2020 NEI and 2022 emissions modeling

platform by model year	54

Table 2-17. SCCs for the cmv_clc2 sector	57

Table 2-18. Vessel groups in the cmv_clc2 sector	61

Table 2-19. SCCs for cmv_c3 sector	62

Table 2-20. SCCs for the Rail Sector	68

Table 2-21. 2020 and 2022 R-l Reported Locomotive Fuel Use for Class I Railroads	69

Table 2-22. 2020 Class ll/lll Line Haul Fleet by Tier Level	70

Table 2-23. Rail Freight Values by year (quadrillion BTU)	71

Table 2-24. SCCs included in the ptfire sector for the 2022 platform	76

Table 2-25. Types of State-provided Fire Activity Data	77

Table 2-26. SCCs included in the ptagfire sector	83

Table 2-27. Meteorological variables required by BEIS4	85

Table 3-1. Key emissions modeling steps by sector	92

Table 3-2. Descriptions of the platform grids	94

Table 3-3. Emission model species produced for CB6R5_AE7 for CMAQ	95

Table 3-4. Additional HAP gaseous model species generated for toxics modeling	97

Table 3-5. Additional HAP particulate model species generated for toxics modeling	98

Table 3-6. PAH/POM pollutant groups	98

Table 3-7. Integration status for each platform sector	101

Table 3-8. Integrated species from MOVES sources	102

Table 3-9. Mobile Speciation Profile Updates	103

Table 3-10. Mobile NOx and HONO fractions	104

Table 3-11. NOx speciation profiles	106

Table 3-12. Sulfate Split Factor Computation	106

Table 3-13. SO2 speciation profiles	107

Table 3-14. Particle Size Speciation of Metals	107

Table 3-15. Mercury Speciation Profiles	108

Table 3-16. Temporal settings used for the platform sectors in SMOKE	109

Table 3-17. U.S. Surrogates available for the 2022 modeling platforms	136

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Table 3-18. Shapefiles used to develop U.S. Surrogates	137

Table 3-19. Surrogates used to gapfill U.S. Surrogates	141

Table 3-20. Off-Network Mobile Source Surrogates	144

Table 3-21. Spatial Surrogates for Oil and Gas Sources	144

Table 3-22. Selected 2022 CAP emissions by sector for U.S. Surrogates (short tons in 12US1)	146

Table 3-23. Canadian Spatial Surrogates	149

Table 3-24. Shapefiles and Attributes used to Compute Canadian Spatial Surrogates	150

Table 3-25. Shapefiles and Attributes used to Compute Mexican Spatial Surrogates	155

Table 3-26. 2022 CAP Emissions Allocated to Mexican and Canadian Spatial Surrogates for 12US1 (short

tons)	155

Table 4-1. Overview of projection methods by sector for the analytic years	159

Table 4-2. EGU sector NOx emissions by State for the 2022vl cases	164

Table 4-3. Subset of CoST Packet Matching Hierarchy	167

Table 4-4. Summary of non-EGU projections subsections	169

Table 4-5. Tons reduced from all facility/unit/stack-level closures in 2026 from 2022 emissions levels	170

Table 4-6. Growth Indicators used to grow SCCs in the afdust sector	172

Table 4-7. Increase in afdust PM2.5 emissions from projections	173

Table 4-8. TAF 2023 growth factors for major airports, 2022 to 2026	173

Table 4-9. Impact of growth factors on 2022 airport emissions for 2026	174

Table 4-10. Resulting C1C2 Emissions for 2026 Compared to 2022 (tons/yr)	175

Table 4-11. Resulting C3 Emissions for 2026 Compared to 2022 (tons/yr)	176

Table 4-12. Impact of 2026 projection factors on livestock	177

Table 4-13. Impact of 2022-2026 projection factors on nonpt emissions	178

Table 4-14. SCCs in nonpt that were held constant	178

Table 4-15. SCCs in nonpt that use Human Population Growth for Projections	180

Table 4-16. Human population projections by state	182

Table 4-17. SCCs in nonpt that use ElA's AEO for Projections	183

Table 4-18. SCCs in np_solvents that use Human Population Growth for Projections	189

Table 4-19. Impact of projection factors on np_solvents emissions	190

Table 4-20. Impact of projections on pt_oilgas emissions	192

Table 4-21. Three year average of national oil and gas exploration emissions	193

Table 4-22. Impact of projections on np_oilgas emissions	193

Table 4-23. Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2023 tables used to project industrial sources	194

Table 4-24. Impact of projections other than refinery adjustments on ptnonipm emissions	194

Table 4-25. Projection factors for Rail SCCs from the 2022 Base Year	195

Table 4-26. Assumed new source emission factor ratios for NSPS rules	196

Table 4-27. Emissions reductions for the oil and gas sectors due to applying the Oil and Gas NSPS	198

Table 4-28. SCCs in np_oilgas for which the Oil and Gas NSPS controls were applied	198

Table 4-29. SCCs in pt_oilgas for which the Oil and Gas NSPS controls were applied	199

Table 4-30. Emissions reductions in nonpt due to RICE NSPS	202

Table 4-31. Emissions reductions in ptnonipm due to the RICE NSPS	202

Table 4-32. Emissions reductions in np_oilgas due to the RICE NSPS	202

Table 4-33. Emissions reductions in pt_oilgas due to the RICE NSPS	202

Table 4-34. SCCs and Engine Types where RICE NSPS controls applied for nonpt and ptnonipm	202

Table 4-35. Non-point Oil and Gas SCCs where RICE NSPS controls are applied	203

Table 4-36. Point source SCCs in pt_oilgas sector where RICE NSPS controls applied	203

Table 4-37. Summary of Organic Liquids Distribution NESHAP controls on ptnonipm emissions	204

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Table 4-38. Stationary gas turbines NSPS analysis and RACT regulations in selected states	205

Table 4-39. Emissions reductions due to the Natural Gas Turbines NSPS	206

Table 4-40. SCCs in ptnonipm for which Natural Gas Turbines NSPS controls were applied	206

Table 4-41. SCCs in pt_oilgas for which Natural Gas Turbines NSPS controls were applied	206

Table 4-42. Process Heaters NSPS analysis emission rates used to estimate controls	207

Table 4-43. Emissions reductions due to the application of the Process Heaters NSPS	207

Table 4-44. SCCs in ptnonipm for which Process Heaters NSPS controls were applied	208

Table 4-45. SCCs in pt_oilgas for which Process Heaters NSPS controls were applied	208

Table 4-46. SCCs in nonpt, np_solvents, and ptnonipm for which state-specific controls were applied	209

Table 4-47. Summary of SLT-provided controls on 2022 emissions	210

Table 4-48. Projection factors for VMT by Fuel and Vehicle Class	212

Table 5-1. National by-sector CAP emissions for the 2022 platform, year 2022, 12US1 grid (tons/yr)	216

Table 5-2. National by-sector VOC HAP emissions for the 2022 platform, year 2022, 12US1 grid (tons/yr) 217

Table 5-3. National by-sector CAP emissions for the 2022 platform, year 2026, 12US1 grid (tons/yr)	218

Table 5-4. National by-sector VOC HAP emissions for the 2022 platform, year 2026, 12US1 grid (tons/yr) 219

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List of Figures

Figure 2-1. Fugitive dust emissions and impact of adjustments due to transportable fraction, precipitation,

and cumulative	34

Figure 2-2. "Bidi" modeling system used to compute emissions from fertilizer application	37

Figure 2-3. Map of 2022 Representative Counties	53

Figure 2-4. NEI Commercial Marine Vessel Boundaries and Automatic Identification System Request Boxes

for the 2022 Emissions Modeling Platform	59

Figure 2-5. 2019 Class I Railroad Line Haul Activity	69

Figure 2-6. Class II and III Railroads in the United States	71

Figure 2-7. Amtrak National Rail Network	72

Figure 2-8 Amtrak Diesel Fuel Use 2020-2022	73

Figure 2-9. Processing flow for fire emission estimates in the 2022 inventory	79

Figure 2-10. Default fire type assignment by state and month where data are only from satellites	80

Figure 2-11. Blue Sky Modeling Pipeline	81

Figure 2-12. Flint Hills Acreage Burned in 2022	82

Figure 2-13. Annual biogenic VOC BEIS4 emissions forthe 12US1 domain	87

Figure 3-1. Air quality modeling domains	94

Figure 3-2. Process of integrating HAPs and speciating VOC in a modeling platform	101

Figure 3-3. Eliminating unmeasured spikes in CEMS data	Ill

Figure 3-4. Regions used to Compute Temporal non-CEMS EGU Temporal Profiles	113

Figure 3-5. Example Daily Temporal Profiles for the LADCO Region and the Gas Fuel Type	114

Figure 3-6. Example Diurnal Temporal Profiles for the MANE-VU Region and the Coal Fuel Type	114

Figure 3-7. 2022 Airport Diurnal Profiles for PHX and state of Texas	116

Figure 3-8. 2022 Wisconsin and Atlanta annual-to-month profile for airport emissions	117

Figure 3-9. Alaska seaplane profile	118

Figure 3-10. Example of RWC temporal allocation using a 50 versus 60 °F threshold	119

Figure 3-11. Example of Annual-to-day temporal pattern of recreational wood burning emissions	120

Figure 3-12. RWC diurnal temporal profile	120

Figure 3-13. Data used to produce a diurnal profile for hydronic heaters	121

Figure 3-14. Monthly temporal profile for hydronic heaters	122

Figure 3-15. Examples of livestock temporal profiles in several parts of the country	123

Figure 3-16. Example of animal NH3 emissions temporal allocation approach (daily total emissions)	123

Figure 3-17. TMAS Data: VMT Fraction by Hour of Day and Day of Week	125

Figure 3-18. Example temporal variability of VMT compared to onroad NOx emissions	128

Figure 3-19. Example Nonroad Day-of-week Temporal Profiles	129

Figure 3-20. Example Nonroad Diurnal Temporal Profiles	130

Figure 3-21. Agricultural burning diurnal temporal profile	132

Figure 3-22. Prescribed and Wildfire diurnal temporal profiles	133

Figure 3-23. 2020 Residential Wood Combustion Emissions using NLCD Low Intensity Surrogate	135

Figure 3-24. 2020 Residential Wood Combustion Emissions using ACS-based Surrogate	135

Figure 4-1. EIA Oil and Gas Supply Regions as of AEO2023 	191

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Acronyms

AADT	Annual average daily traffic

AE6	CMAQ Aerosol Module, version 6, introduced inCMAQv5.0

AEO	Annual Energy Outlook

AERMOD	American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory
Model

AIS	Automated Identification System

APU	Auxiliary power unit

BEIS	Biogenic Emissions Inventory System

BELD	Biogenic Emissions Land use Database

BenMAP	Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program

BPS	Bulk Plant Storage

BSP	Blue Sky Pipeline

BTP	BulkTerminal (Plant) to Pump

C1C2	Category 1 and 2 commercial marine vessels

C3	Category 3 (commercial marine vessels)

CAMD	EPA's Clean Air Markets Division

CAMx	Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions

CAP	Criteria Air Pollutant

CARB	California Air Resources Board

CB05	Carbon Bond 2005 chemical mechanism

CB6	Version 6 of the Carbon Bond mechanism

CBM	Coal-bed methane

CDB	County database (input to MOVES model)

CEMS	Continuous Emissions Monitoring System

CISWI	Commercial and Industrial Solid Waste Incinerators

CMAQ	Community Multiscale Air Quality

CMV	Commercial Marine Vessel

CNG	Compressed natural gas

CO	Carbon monoxide

CONUS	Continental United States

CoST	Control Strategy Tool

CRC	Coordinating Research Council

CSAPR	Cross-State Air Pollution Rule

E0, E10, E85	0%, 10% and 85% Ethanol blend gasoline, respectively

ECA	Emissions Control Area

ECCC	Environment and Climate Change Canada

EF	Emission Factor

EGU	Electric Generating Units

EIA	Energy Information Administration

EIS	Emissions Inventory System

EPA	Environmental Protection Agency

EMFAC	EMission FACtor (California's onroad mobile model)

EPIC	Environmental Policy Integrated Climate modeling system

FAA	Federal Aviation Administration

FCCS	Fuel Characteristic Classification System

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FEST-C	Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ

FF10	Flat File 2010

FINN	Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research

FIPS	Federal Information Processing Standards

FHWA	Federal Highway Administration

HAP	Hazardous Air Pollutant

HMS	Hazard Mapping System

HPMS	Highway Performance Monitoring System

ICI	Industrial/Commercial/lnstitutional (boilers and process heaters)

l/M	Inspection and Maintenance

IMO	International Marine Organization

IPM	Integrated Planning Model

LADCO	Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium

LDV	Light-Duty Vehicle

LPG	Liquified Petroleum Gas

MACT	Maximum Achievable Control Technology

MARAMA	Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association

MATS	Mercury and Air Toxics Standards

MCIP	Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor

MMS	Minerals Management Service (now known as the Bureau of Energy

Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE)

MOVES	Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator

MSA	Metropolitan Statistical Area

MTBE	Methyl tert-butyl ether

MWC	Municipal waste combustor

MY	Model year

NAAQS	National Ambient Air Quality Standards

NAICS	North American Industry Classification System

NBAFM	Naphthalene, Benzene, Acetaldehyde, Formaldehyde and Methanol

NCAR	National Center for Atmospheric Research

NEEDS	National Electric Energy Database System

NEI	National Emission Inventory

NESCAUM	Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management

NH3	Ammonia

NLCD	National Land Cover Database

NOAA	National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NONROAD	OTAQ's model for estimation of nonroad mobile emissions

NOx	Nitrogen oxides

NSPS	New Source Performance Standards

OHH	Outdoor Hydronic Heater

ONI	Off network idling

OTAQ	EPA's Office of Transportation and Air Quality

ORIS	Office of Regulatory Information System

ORD	EPA's Office of Research and Development

OSAT	Ozone Source Apportionment Technology

pcSOA	Potential combustion Secondary Organic Aerosol

PFC	Portable Fuel Container

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PM2.5	Particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 microns

PM 10	Particulate matter less than or equal to 10 microns

POA	Primary Organic Aerosol

ppm	Parts per million

ppmv	Parts per million by volume

PSAT	Particulate Matter Source Apportionment Technology

RACT	Reasonably Available Control Technology

RBT	Refinery to Bulk Terminal

RIA	Regulatory Impact Analysis

RICE	Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engine

RWC	Residential Wood Combustion

RPD	Rate-per-vehicle (emission mode used in SMOKE-MOVES)

RPH	Rate-per-hour for hoteling (emission mode used in SMOKE-MOVES)

RPHO	Rate-per-hour for off-network idling (emission mode used in SMOKE-MOVES)

RPP	Rate-per-profile (emission mode used in SMOKE-MOVES)

RPS	Rate-per-start (emission mode used in SMOKE-MOVES)

RPV	Rate-per-vehicle (emission mode used in SMOKE-MOVES)

RVP	Reid Vapor Pressure

SCC	Source Classification Code

SMARTFIRE2	Satellite Mapping Automated Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation
version 2

SMOKE	Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions

SO2	Sulfur dioxide

SOA	Secondary Organic Aerosol

SIP	State Implementation Plan

SPDPRO	Hourly Speed Profiles for weekday versus weekend

S/L/T	state, local, and tribal

TAF	Terminal Area Forecast

TCEQ	Texas Commission on Environmental Quality

TOG	Total Organic Gas

TSD	Technical support document

USDA	United States Department of Agriculture

VIIRS	Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite

VOC	Volatile organic compounds

VMT	Vehicle miles traveled

VPOP	Vehicle Population

WRAP	Western Regional Air Partnership

WRF	Weather Research and Forecasting Model

2014NEIv2	2014 National Emissions Inventory (NEI), version 2

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1 Introduction

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in conjunction with the National Emissions
Collaborative, developed an air quality modeling platform for criteria air pollutants that represents the
year 2022. The platform is based on the 2020 National Emissions Inventory (2020 NEI) published in April
2023 (EPA, 2023), with many sectors adjusted to better reflect 2022 and/or using data specific to the
year 2022. The air quality modeling platform consists of all the emissions inventories and ancillary data
files used for emissions modeling, as well as the meteorological, initial condition, and boundary
condition files needed to run the air quality model. This document focuses on the emissions modeling
component of the 2022 air quality modeling platform, including the emission inventories, the ancillary
data files, and the approaches used to transform inventories for use in air quality modeling.

The emissions data in the modeling platform include criteria air pollutants and their precursors (CAPs),
two groups of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), and diesel particulate matter. The first group of HAPs are
those explicitly used by the chemical mechanism in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model
(Appel, 2018) for ozone/particulate matter (PM): chlorine (CI), hydrogen chloride (HCI), naphthalene,
benzene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, and methanol (the last five are abbreviated as NBAFM in
subsequent sections of the document). The second group of HAPs consists of over 50 HAPs or HAP
groups (such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon groups) that are included in the emissions inventories
for the purposes of air quality modeling for a HAP+CAP platform, although HAP+CAP modeling is not
planned with version 1 of the 2022 platform.

Emissions were prepared for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.4,2 which is
used to model ozone (O3) particulate matter (PM), and HAP concentrations. CMAQ requires hourly and
gridded emissions of the following inventory pollutants: carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx),
volatile organic compounds (VOC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ammonia (NH3), primary particulate matter less
than or equal to 10 microns (PM10), and individual component species for primary particulate matter
less than or equal to 2.5 microns (PM2.5). In addition, the Carbon Bond mechanism version 6 (CB6) with
chlorine chemistry within CMAQ allows for explicit treatment of the VOC HAPs naphthalene, benzene,
acetaldehyde, formaldehyde and methanol (NBAFM), includes anthropogenic HAP emissions of HCI and
CI, and can model additional HAPs as described in Section 3. The short abbreviation for the modeling
case name was "2022hc", where 2022 is the year modeled, 'h' represents that it was based on the 2020
NEI, and 'c' represents that it was the third version of a 2020 NEI-based platform.

This TSD discusses the application of the emissions modeling platform for which CMAQ and the
Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) were run. The effort to create the emissions
inputs for this study included development of emission inventories to represent emissions during the
year of 2022, along with application of emissions modeling tools to convert the inventories into the
format and resolution needed by CMAQ and CAMx, although this platform is not designed to be used for
analyses with the American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model
(AERMOD).

2 CMAQ version 5.4: https://zenodo.org/record/7218076. CMAQ is also available from https://www.epa.gov/cmaq and the
Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Center at: https://www.cmascenter.org.

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In addition to the base year emissions representing 2022, emissions were projected to the year 2026.
The year 2026 emissions are needed by states to develop State Implementation Plans (SIPs) for
nonattainment areas classified as serious for the 2015 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
for ozone. The analytic year emissions reflect on-the-books Federal and some state regulations that
were effective as of April, 2024.

The emissions modeling platform includes point sources, nonpoint sources, onroad mobile sources,
nonroad mobile sources, biogenic emissions and fires for the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Some platform
categories use more disaggregated data than are made available in the NEI. For example, in the
platform, onroad mobile source emissions are represented as hourly emissions by vehicle type, fuel
type, road type and process, while the NEI emissions are aggregated to vehicle type/fuel type totals and
annual temporal resolution. Emissions used in the CMAQ modeling from Canada are provided by
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and Mexico are mostly provided by SEMARNAT and are
not part of the NEI. Year-specific emissions were used for fires, biogenic sources, fertilizer, point
sources, and onroad and nonroad mobile sources. Where available, hourly continuous emission
monitoring system (CEMS) data were used for electric generating unit (EGU) emissions.

The primary emissions modeling tool used to create the CMAQ model-ready emissions was the Sparse
Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system. SMOKE version 5.1 was used to create
CMAQ-ready emissions files for a 12-km grid covering the continental U.S. Additional information about
SMOKE is available from http://www.cmascenter.org/smoke.

The gridded meteorological model used to provide input data for the emissions modeling was developed
using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF, https://github.com/wrf-
model/WRF/releases) version 4.2, Advanced Research WRF core (Skamarock, et al., 2008). The WRF
Model is a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system developed for both operational forecasting
and atmospheric research applications. The WRF model was run for 2022 over a domain covering the
continental U.S. (CONUS) at both 12km resolution and 36km resolution with 35 vertical layers, and also
for domains that cover Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico plus the Virgin Islands. The run for this platform
included high resolution sea surface temperature data from the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface
Temperature (GHRSST) (see https://www.ghrsst.org/) and is given the EPA meteorological case
abbreviation "22m." The full case abbreviation includes this suffix following the emissions portion of the
case name to fully specify the abbreviation of the case as "2022hc_cb6_22m."

Data files and summaries for this platform are available from this section of the air emissions modeling
website https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-modeling/2022vl-emissions-modeling-platform.

This document contains five additional sections. Section 2 describes the emission inventories input to
SMOKE. Section 3 describes the emissions modeling and the ancillary files used to process the emission
inventories into air quality model-ready inputs. The analytic year emissions are described in Section 4.
Data summaries are provided in Section 5, and Section 6 provides references.

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2 Base Year Emissions Inventories and Approaches

This section describes the emissions inventories created for input to SMOKE, which are based on the
April 2023 version of the 2020 NEI with updates to reflect emissions in the year 2022. The NEI includes
four main data categories: a) nonpoint sources (which now include fires); b) point sources; c) nonroad
mobile sources; and d) onroad mobile sources. For CAPs, the NEI data are largely compiled from data
submitted by state, local and tribal (S/L/T) agencies. HAP emissions data are often augmented
(generated through speciation of relevant CAPs, e.g., VOC and PM2.5) by EPA when they are not
voluntarily submitted to the NEI by S/L/T agencies. The NEI was compiled using the Emissions Inventory
System (EIS). EIS collects and stores facility inventory and emissions data for the NEI and includes
hundreds of automated QA checks to improve data quality, and it also supports release point (stack)
coordinates separately from facility coordinates. EPA collaboration with S/L/T agencies helped prevent
duplication between point and nonpoint source categories such as industrial boilers. The 2020 NEI
Technical Support Document describes in detail the development of the 2020 emission inventories and
is available at https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/2020-national-emissions-inventory-nei-
technical-support-document-tsd (EPA, 2023).

A complete set of emissions for all source categories is developed for the NEI every three years, with
2020 being the most recent year represented with a full "triennial" NEI. S/L/T agencies are required to
submit all applicable point sources to the NEI in triennial years, including the year 2020. Because only
point source emissions were submitted by S/L/T agencies for 2022, emissions for any point sources not
submitted for 2022, and not marked as shutdown, were pulled forward from the 2020 NEI. The
SMARTFIRE2 system and the BlueSky Pipeline (https://github.com/pnwairfire/bluesky) emissions
modeling system were used to develop the fire emissions. SMARTFIRE2 categorizes all fires as either
prescribed burning or wildfire, and the BlueSky Pipeline system includes fuel loading, consumption and
emission factor estimates for both types of fires. Onroad and nonroad mobile source emissions were
developed for this project using MOVES4 (https://www.epa.gov/moves).

With the exception of fire emissions, Canadian emissions were provided by Environment Canada and
Climate Change (ECCC) for the years 2020 and 2023 and most 2022 emissions were developed by
interpolating between 2020 and 2023. For point EGUs, instead of interpolating from 2020 and 2023
(which unlike other point sources, has different sources in 2020 vs 2023), the provided 2023 emissions
were used as is to represent 2022. For Mexico, year 2016-based inventories from the 2019 emissions
modeling platform (EPA, 2022b) were used as the starting point with area, nonroad, and point data for
border states (i.e., Baja California, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Sonora, and Tamaulipas)
supplemented with data for calendar year 2018, which is newer than the data used in the 2019
platform, developed by SEMARNAT in collaboration with U.S. EPA.

The emissions modeling process was performed using SMOKE v5.1. Through this process, the emissions
inventories were apportioned into the grid cells used by CMAQ and temporally allocated into hourly
values. In addition, the pollutants in the inventories (e.g., NOx, PM and VOC) were split into the chemical
species needed by CMAQ. For the purposes of preparing the CMAQ- ready emissions, the NEI emissions
inventories by data category were split into emissions modeling platform "sectors"; and emissions from
sources other than the NEI are added, such as the Canadian, Mexican, and offshore inventories.
Emissions within the emissions modeling platform were separated into sectors for groups of related
emissions source categories that were run through the appropriate SMOKE programs, except the final

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merge, independently from emissions categories in the other sectors. The final merge program called
Mrggrid combines low-level sector-specific gridded, speciated and temporalized emissions to create the
final CMAQ-ready emissions inputs. For biogenic and fertilizer emissions, the CMAQ model allows for
these emissions to be included in the CMAQ-ready emissions inputs, or to be computed within CMAQ
itself (the "inline" option). This study used the option to compute biogenic emissions within the model
and the CMAQ bidirectional ammonia process to compute the fertilizer emissions.

Following the compilation of the initial draft of the base year emission inventories within the 2022vl
Emissions Modeling Platform, the inventories were posted to the 2022vl EPA website and to the Data
Retrieval Tool associated with the platform. Stakeholders were then given the opportunity to comment
on the inventory during an approximate 30-day period, with comments submitted to the 2022vl
Sharepoint site setup by the EPA. Following the comment period, where possible, EPA incorporated the
comments into the inventories prior to finalization. In total, 30 individual organizations submitted 127
comments during the base-year review. A similar process was followed when the inventories for 2026
were completed.

Table 2-1 presents the sectors in the emissions modeling platform used to develop the year 2022
emissions for this project. The sector abbreviations are provided in italics and start with lower case
letters; these abbreviations are used in the SMOKE modeling scripts, the inventory file names, and
throughout the remainder of this section. Note that while the fires sectors are in nonpoint NEI data
category, in the modeling platform they are treated as day-specific point sources.

Table 2-1. Platform sectors used in the Emissions Modeling Process

Platform Sector:
abbreviation

NEI Data
Category

Description and resolution of the data input to SMOKE

EGU units:
ptegu

Point

2022 NEI point source EGUs, replaced with hourly Continuous
Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) values for NOx and S02,
and the remaining pollutants temporally allocated according to
CEMS heat input where the units are matched to the NEI.
Emissions for all sources not matched to CEMS data come from
the 2022 NEI point inventory. EGUs closed in 2022 are not part
of the inventory. Annual resolution for sources not matched to
CEMS data, hourly for CEMS sources.

Point source oil and gas:
ptjoiigas

Point

2022 NEI point sources that include oil and gas production
emissions processes for facilities with North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS) codes related to Oil and Gas
Extraction, Natural Gas Distribution, Drilling Oil and Gas Wells,
Support Activities for Oil and Gas Operations, Pipeline
Transportation of Crude Oil, and Pipeline Transportation of
Natural Gas. Includes U.S. offshore oil production. Annual
resolution.

Aircraft and ground
support equipment:
airports

Point

EPA estimated 2022 emissions, including aircraft and airport
ground support for the top 51 airports. Smaller airports,
including aircraft and airport ground support were projected
from 2020 NEI to 2022 based on the 2023 Terminal Area
Forecast (TAF). Georgia provided emissions for HJAIA. Annual
resolution.

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Platform Sector:
abbreviation

NEI Data
Category

Description and resolution of the data input to SMOKE

Remaining non-EGU
point: ptnonipm

Point

All 2022 NEI point source records not matched to the airports,
ptegu, or pt_oilgas sectors. Includes 2020 NEI rail yard emissions
projected to 2022 using updated R-l reported yard fuel usage.
Annual resolution.

Livestock:
livestock

Nonpoint

2022 nonpoint livestock emissions developed using a similar
method to 2020 NEI but with adjusted animal counts and using
2022 meteorology. Livestock includes ammonia and other
pollutants (except PM2.5). County and annual resolution.

Agricultural Fertilizer:
fertilizer

Nonpoint

2022 agricultural fertilizer ammonia emissions based on
bidirectional flux calculations computed inline within CMAQ.

Area fugitive dust:
afdustjadj

Nonpoint

PM10 and PM2.5 nonpoint fugitive dust sources including building
construction, road construction, agricultural dust from crops,
and mining and quarrying which were all held constant.
Additional dust sources not held constant include paved road
dust and agricultural dust from livestock, where paved road dust
emissions were adjusted to 2022 based on VMT and dust from
livestock based on animal count differences. The emissions
modeling system applies a transportable fraction reduction and
zero-out adjustments based on the year-specific gridded hourly
meteorology (precipitation and snow/ice cover). County and
annual resolution.

Biogenic:
beis

Nonpoint

Year 2022 emissions from biogenic sources. These were left out
of the CMAQ-ready merged emissions, in favor of inline biogenic
emissions produced during the CMAQ model run itself. Version 4
of the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) was used with
Version 6 of the Biogenic Emissions Landuse Database (BELD6).
The CMAQ-generated emissions are similar to the biogenic
emissions generated through running SMOKE, but they are not
exactly the same. Gridded and hourly resolution.

Category 1, 2 CMV:
cmv_clc2

Nonpoint

2022 Category 1 (CI) and Category 2 (C2), commercial marine
vessel (CMV) emissions based on 2022 Automatic Identification
System (AIS) data categorized using SCCs specific to ship type.
Point and hourly resolution.

Category 3 CMV:
cmv_c3

Nonpoint

2022 Category 3 (C3) commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions
based on 2022 AIS data categorized using SCCs specific to ship
type. Point and hourly resolution.

Locomotives :
rail

Nonpoint

Class 1 line haul rail locomotives emissions from 2020 NEI
projected to 2022 using R-l reported fuel usage. County and
annual resolution. Class II and III locomotive emissions were
projected from 2020 based on the 2021 U.S. Energy Information
Administration's Annual Energy Outlook. Commuter rail was
projected from 2020 using fuel use per company from the
Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) 2022 National Transit
Database. Amtrak emissions were adjusted down based on 2020
fuel use reported in Amtrak's FY22 AMTRAK Sustainability
Report. County and annual resolution.

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Platform Sector:
abbreviation

NEI Data
Category

Description and resolution of the data input to SMOKE

Nonpoint source oil and
gas:

np_oilgas

Nonpoint

2022 well activity data (production and exploration of oil, gas,
etc.) run through Oil and Gas tool. Abandoned wells based on
2022, plus other state-specific inputs. County and annual
resolution. County and annual resolution.

Open Burning:
openburn

Nonpoint

This new sector for the 2022vl platform was split out from the
prior nonpt sector and includes emissions from yard waste, land
clearing, and residential household waste burning. These are
SCCs starting with 261. County and annual resolution.

Residential Wood

Combustion:

rwc

Nonpoint

2020 NEI nonpoint sources with residential wood combustion
(RWC) processes, projected to 2022 with state-level adjustment
factors derived from the State Energy Data System (SEDS) plus
specific adjustments for California and Idaho. County and annual
resolution.

Solvents:
np_solvents

Nonpoint

Emissions of solvents based on methods used for the 2020 NEI.
2021 emissions are used to represent 2022. Includes household
cleaners, personal care products, adhesives, architectural and
aerosol coatings, printing inks, and pesticides. Annual and
county resolution.

Remaining nonpoint:
nonpt

Nonpoint

Nonpoint sources not included in other platform sectors. Mostly
held constant at 2020 levels, but with some SCCs adjusted to
2022 based on population, energy consumption ratios and
employment data. County and annual resolution.

Nonroad:
nonroad

Nonroad

2022 nonroad equipment emissions developed with MOVES4,
including the updates made to spatial apportionment that were
developed with the 2016vl platform. MOVES4 was used for all
states except California, which submitted their own emissions
for 2020 and 2023 that were then interpolated to 2022. County
and monthly resolution.

Onroad:
on road

Onroad

Onroad mobile source gasoline and diesel vehicles from parking
lots and moving vehicles for 2022 developed using VMT from
many states, along with VMT data from 2020 NEI projected to
2022 using factors based on FHWA VM-2 data. Includes the
following emission processes: exhaust, extended idle, auxiliary
power units, evaporative, permeation, refueling, vehicle starts,
off network idling, long-haul truck hoteling, and brake and tire
wear. MOVES4 was run for 2022 to generate year-specific
emission factors. County/gridded and hourly resolution.

Onroad California:
onroad_ca_adj

Onroad

California-provided 2022 emissions for CAPs. VOC HAPs were
projected from California-provided 2020 NEI HAP emissions
using CAP trends. Onroad mobile source gasoline and diesel
vehicles from parking lots and moving vehicles based on
Emission Factor (EMFAC), gridded and temporalized based on
outputs from MOVES4. County/gridded and hourly resolution.

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Platform Sector:
abbreviation

NEI Data
Category

Description and resolution of the data input to SMOKE

Point source agricultural

fires:

ptagfire

Nonpoint

Agricultural fire sources for 2022 developed by EPA as point and
day-specific emissions.3 Includes 2022 satellite data and land
use. Florida, Georgia, Idaho, and North Carolina have separate
datasets and are removed from the national datasets.
Washington has supplemental datasets, to be used along with
WA from the national datasets. Agricultural fires are in the
nonpoint data category of the NEI, but in the modeling platform,
they are treated as day-specific point sources. Point and daily
resolution.

Point source prescribed

fires:

ptfire-rx

Nonpoint

Point source day-specific prescribed fires for 2022 computed
using SMARTFIRE 2 and BlueSky Pipeline. The ptfire emissions
were run as two separate sectors: ptfire-rx (prescribed, including
Flint Hills / grasslands) and ptfire-wild. Point and daily resolution

Point source wildfires:
ptfire-wild

Nonpoint

Point source day-specific wildfires for 2022 computed using
SMARTFIRE 2 and BlueSky Pipeline. Point and daily resolution

Non-US. Fires:
ptfire_othna

N/A

Point source day-specific wildfires and agricultural fires outside
of the U.S. for 2022. Canadian fires were computed using
SMARTFIRE 2 and BlueSky Pipeline. Mexico, Caribbean, Central
American, and other international fires, are from v2.5 of the Fire
INventory (FINN) from National Center for Atmospheric
Research (Wiedinmyer, C., 2023). Point and daily resolution.

Canada Area Fugitive
dust sources:
canada_afdust

N/A

Area fugitive dust sources from ECCCfor 2022 (interpolated
between provided 2020 and 2023 emissions) with transport
fraction and snow/ice adjustments based on 2022
meteorological data. Annual and province resolution.

Canada Point Fugitive
dust sources:
canada_ptdust

N/A

Point source fugitive dust sources from ECCC for 2022
(interpolated between provided 2020 and 2023 emissions) with
transport fraction and snow/ice adjustments based on 2022
meteorological data. Monthly and province resolution.

Canada and Mexico
stationary point sources:
canmex_point

N/A

Canada and Mexico point source emissions not included in other
sectors. Canada point sources were provided by ECCCfor 2020
and 2023 and interpolated to 2022. Mexico point source
emissions for six border states represent 2018 and were
developed by SEMARNAT in collaboration with EPA, while
emissions for all other states were carried forward from 2019ge
(EPA, 2022b). Annual and monthly point resolution.

Canada and Mexico
agricultural sources:
canmex_ag

N/A

Canada and Mexico agricultural emissions. Canada emissions
were provided by ECCC for 2020 and 2023; EGUs for 2023 were
used directly, and other point inventories were interpolated to
2022. Mexico agricultural emissions were provided by
SEMARNAT and include updated emissions for six border states
representing 2018 developed by SEMARNAT in collaboration
with EPA, while emissions for all other states were carried
forward from 2019ge. Annual municipio and province resolution.

3 Only EPA-developed agricultural fire data were included in this study; data submitted by states to the NEI were excluded.

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Platform Sector:
abbreviation

NEI Data
Category

Description and resolution of the data input to SMOKE

Canada low-level oil and
gas sources:
canada_og2D

N/A

Canada emissions from upstream oil and gas, provided by ECCC
for 2020 and 2023 and interpolated to 2022. This sector contains
the portion of oil and gas emissions which are not subject to
plume rise. The rest of the Canada oil and gas emissions are in
the canmex_point sector. Annual province resolution.

Canada and Mexico
nonpoint and nonroad
sources:
canmex_area

N/A

Canada and Mexico nonpoint source emissions not included in
other sectors. Canada: ECCC provided surrogates and 2020 and
2023 inventories, that were interpolated to 2022. Mexico:
included updated emissions for six border states representing
2018 developed by SEMARNAT in collaboration with EPA, while
emissions for all other states were carried forward from 2019ge.
Annual and monthly municipio and province resolution.

Canada onroad sources:
canada_onroad

N/A

Canada onroad emissions. 2020 and 2023 Canada inventories
provided by ECCC and interpolated to 2022; processed using
updated surrogates. Province monthly resolution.

Mexico onroad sources:
mexico_onroad

N/A

Mexico onroad emissions. 2020 and 2023 emissions output from
MOVES-Mexico were interpolated to 2022. Municipio monthly
resolution.

Ocean chlorine emissions were also merged in with the above sectors. The ocean chlorine gas emission
estimates are based on the build-up of molecular chlorine (Cb) concentrations in oceanic air masses
(Bullock and Brehme, 2002). Ocean chlorine data at 12 km resolution were available from earlier studies
and were not modified other than the name "CHLORINE" was changed to "CL2" because that is the
name required by the CMAQ model.

The emission inventories in SMOKE input formats for the platform are available from EPA's Air Emissions
Modeling website: https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-modeling/2022vl-emissions-modeling-platform.
The platform informational text file indicates the zipped files associated with each platform sector.

Some emissions data summaries are available with the data files for the 2022vl platform. The types of
reports include state summaries of inventory pollutants and model species by modeling platform sector
and county annual totals by modeling platform sector.

2.1Point sources (ptegu, pt_oilgas, ptnonipm, airports)

Point sources are sources of emissions for which specific geographic coordinates (e.g., latitude and
longitude) are specified, as in the case of an individual facility. A facility may have multiple emission
release points that may be characterized as units such as boilers, reactors, spray booths, kilns, waste
piles, etc. A unit may have multiple processes (e.g., a boiler that sometimes burns residual oil and
sometimes burns natural gas). With a couple of minor exceptions, this section describes only NEI point
sources within the contiguous U.S. The offshore oil platform (pt_oilgas sector) and CMV emissions
(cmv_clc2 and cmv_c3 sectors) are processed by SMOKE as point source inventories and are discussed
later in this section. A complete NEI is developed every three years. At the time of this writing, 2020 is
the most recently finished complete NEI. A comprehensive description about the development of the
2020 NEI is available in the 2020 NEI TSD (EPA, 2023). Point inventories are also available in EIS for non-
triennial NEI years such as 2019 and 2021. In the interim year point inventories, states are required to
update large sources with the emissions that occurred in that year, while sources not updated by states

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for the interim year were either carried forward from the most recent triennial NEI or marked as closed
and removed.

In preparation for modeling, the complete set of point sources in the NEI was exported from EIS for the
year 2022 into the Flat File 2010 (FF10) format that is compatible with SMOKE (see
https://cmascenter.Org/smoke/documentation/5.l/html/ch06s02s08.html) and was then split into
several sectors for modeling. Any sources without specific locations (i.e., the FIPS code ends in 777) were
dropped and inventories for the other point source sectors were created from the remaining point
sources. The point sectors are: EGUs (ptegu), point source oil and gas extraction-related sources
(pt_oilgas), airport emissions (airports), and the remaining non-EGUs (ptnonipm). The EGU emissions
were split out from the other sources to facilitate the use of distinct SMOKE temporal processing and
future-year projection techniques. The oil and gas sector emissions (pt_oilgas) and airport emissions
(airports) were processed separately for the purposes of developing emissions summaries and due to
distinct projection techniques from the remaining non-EGU emissions (ptnonipm).

In some cases, data about facility or unit closures are entered into EIS after the inventory modeling
inventory flat files have been extracted. Prior to processing through SMOKE, submitted facility and unit
closures were reviewed and where closed sources were found in the inventory, those were removed.

For this platform, an analysis of point source stack parameters (e.g., stack height, diameter,
temperature, and velocity) was performed due to the presence of unrealistic and repeated stack
parameters. The defaulted values were noticed in data submissions for the states of Illinois, Louisiana,
Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. Where these defaults were detected and deemed to be
unreasonable for the specific process, the affected stack parameters were replaced by values from the
PSTK file that is input to SMOKE. PSTK contains default stack parameters by source classification code
(SCC). These updates impacted the ptnonipm and pt_oilgas inventories.

The inventory pollutants processed through SMOKE for input to CMAQ for the ptegu, pt_oilgas,
ptnonipm, and airports sectors included: CO, NOx, VOC, SO2, NH3, PM10, and PM2.5 and the following
HAPs: HCI (pollutant code = 7647010), CI (code = 7782505), and several dozen other HAPs listed in
Section 3. NBAFM pollutants from the point sectors were utilized.

The ptnonipm, pt_oilgas, and airports sector emissions were provided to SMOKE as annual emissions.
For sources in the ptegu sector that could be matched to 2022 CEMS data, hourly CEMS NOx and SO2
emissions for 2022 from EPA's Acid Rain Program were used rather than annual inventory emissions. For
all other pollutants (e.g., VOC, PM2.5, HCI), annual emissions were used as-is from the annual inventory
but were allocated to hourly values using heat input from the CEMS data. For the unmatched units in
the ptegu sector, annual emissions were allocated to daily values using IPM region- and pollutant-
specific profiles, and similarly, region- and pollutant-specific diurnal profiles were applied to create
hourly emissions.

The non-EGU stationary point source (ptnonipm) emissions were used as inputs to SMOKE as annual
emissions. The full description of how the NEI emissions were developed is provided in the NEI
documentation - a brief summary of their development follows:

a. CAP and HAP data were provided by States, locals and tribes under the Air Emissions Reporting

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Rule (AERR) [the reporting size threshold is larger for inventory years between the triennial inventory
years of 2011, 2014, 2017, 2020,...].

b.	EPA corrected known issues and filled PM data gaps.

c.	EPA added HAP data from the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) where corresponding data was not
already provided by states/locals.

d.	EPA stored and applied matches of the point source units to units with CEMS data and also for all
EGU units modeled by EPA's Integrated Planning Model (IPM).

e.	Data for airports and rail yards were incorporated.

f.	Off-shore platform data were added from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM).

The changes made to the NEI point sources prior to modeling with SMOKE are as follows:

•	The tribal data, which do not use state/county Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS)
codes in the NEI, but rather use the tribal code, were assigned a state/county FIPS code of 88XXX,
where XXX is the 3-digit tribal code in the NEI. This change was made because SMOKE requires all
sources to have a state/county FIPS code.

•	Sources that did not have specific counties assigned (i.e., the county code ends in 777) were not
included in the modeling because it was only possible to know the state in which the sources
resided, but no more specific details related to the location of the sources were available.

Each of the point sectors is processed separately through SMOKE as described in the following
subsections.

2.1.1 EGU sector (ptegu)

The ptegu sector contains emissions from EGUs in the 2022 point source inventory that could be
matched to units found in the National Electric Energy Database System (NEEDS) v6 that is used by the
Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to develop projected EGU emissions. It was necessary to put these
EGUs into a separate sector in the platform because EGUs use different temporal profiles than other
sources in the point sector and it is useful to segregate these emissions from the rest of the point
sources to facilitate summaries of the data. Sources not matched to units found in NEEDS were placed
into the pt_oilgas or ptnonipm sectors. For studies that include analytic years, the sources in the ptegu
sector are fully replaced with analytic year emissions computed by IPM or through engineering analysis.
It is therefore important that the matching between the NEI and NEEDS database be as complete as
possible because there can be double-counting of emissions in analytic year modeling scenarios if
emissions for units projected by IPM are not properly matched to the units in the base year point source
inventory.

The 2022 ptegu emissions inventory is a subset of the point source flat file exported from the Emissions
Inventory System (EIS). In the point source flat file, emission records for sources that have been matched
to the NEEDS database have a value filled into the IPM_YN column based on the matches stored within
EIS. Thus, unit-level emissions were split into a separate EGU flat file for units that have a populated

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(non-null) ipm_yn field. A populated ipm_yn field indicates that a match was found for the EIS unit in the
NEEDS v6 database. Updates were made to the flat file output from EIS as follows:

•	ORIS facility and unit identifiers were updated based on additional matches in a cross-platform
spreadsheet, based on state comments, and using the EIS alternate identifiers table as described
later in this section.

Some units in the ptegu sector are matched to Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) data via
Office of Regulatory Information System (ORIS) facility codes and boiler IDs. For the matched units, the
annual emissions of NOx and SO2 in the flat file were replaced with the hourly CEMS emissions in base
year modeling. For other pollutants at matched units, the hourly CEMS heat input data were used to
allocate the NEI annual emissions to hourly values. All stack parameters, stack locations, and Source
Classification Codes (SCCs) for these sources come from the flat file. If CEMS data exists for a unit, but
the unit is not matched to the NEI, the CEMS data for that unit were not used in the modeling platform.
However, if the source exists in the NEI and is not matched to a CEMS unit, the emissions from that
source are still modeled using the annual emission value in the NEI temporally allocated to hourly
values.

EIS stores many matches from NEI units to the ORIS facility codes and boiler IDs used to reference the
CEMS data. In the flat file, emission records for point sources matched to CEMS data have values filled
into the ORIS_FACILITY_CODE and ORIS_BOILER_ID columns. The CEMS data are available at
https://campd.epa.gov/data. Many smaller emitters in the CEMS program cannot be matched to the
NEI due to differences in the way a unit is defined between the NEI and CEMS datasets, or due to
uncertainties in source identification such as inconsistent plant names in the two data systems. In
addition, the NEEDS database of units modeled by IPM includes many smaller emitting EGUs that do not
have CEMS. Therefore, there will be more units in the ptegu sector than have CEMS data.

Matches from the NEI to ORIS codes and the NEEDS database were improved in the platform where
applicable. In some cases, NEI units in EIS match to many CAMD units. In these cases, a new entry was
made in the flat file with a "_M_" in the ipm_yn field of the flat file to indicate that there are "multiple"
ORIS IDs that match that unit. This helps facilitate appropriate temporal allocation of the emissions by
SMOKE. Temporal allocation for EGUs is discussed in more detail in the Ancillary Data section below.

The EGU flat file was split into two flat files: those that have unit-level matches to CEMS data using the
oris_facility_code and oris_boiler_id fields (egu_cems) and those that do not (egu_noncems) so that
different temporal profiles could be applied. In addition, the hourly CEMS data were processed through
v2.1 of the CEMCorrect tool to mitigate the impact of unmeasured values in the data.

Some comments were received on the base year EGU inventories and were addressed as follows:

•	Many units in the engineering analysis had NOX and/or S02 but did not have the other CAPs, and
that those pollutants needed to be gapfilled. The gapfilling process added 1,500 tpy of PM2.5
nationally, across several states. Most increases outside of NOX and S02 can be attributed to the
gapfilling process.

25


-------
•	The drop in Iowa S02, and the increases in Wisconsin N0X/S02, are based on corrections
provided by Michael Cohen. I believe the Iowa change was from a state comment, and Wisconsin
concerned unit(s) that were previously zero but shouldn't have been.

•	Facilities in CT, MA, Ml, MN, VA, and WA were closed between draft and final, based mostly on
state comments, and also based on the NEEDS DB showing some of these were dropped. Most of
these were non-engineering-analysis facilities that had previously been carried forward from
2022.

•	Kentucky emissions decreased because some units moved from ptegu to ptnonipm.

2.1.2 Point source oil and gas sector (pt_oilgas)

The pt_oilgas sector was separated from the ptnonipm sector by selecting sources with specific North
American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes shown in Table 2-2. The emissions and other
source characteristics in the pt_oilgas sector are submitted by states, while EPA developed a dataset of
nonpoint oil and gas emissions for each county in the U.S. with oil and gas activity that was available for
states to use. Nonpoint oil and gas emissions can be found in the np_oilgas sector. The pt_oilgas sector
includes emissions from offshore oil platforms. Where available, the point source emissions submitted
as part of the 2022 NEI process with refinements based on the Collaborative data review process were
used. Sources without data submitted for 2022 were projected to 2022 from 2020 NEI emissions, or
where applicable, from 2021 NEI emissions.

Table 2-2. Point source oil and gas sector NAICS Codes

NAICS

NAICS description

2111

Oil and Gas Extraction



Natural Gas Liquid Extraction (although no emissions for this

211112

NAICS code exist in the 2022 inventory)

21112

Crude Petroleum Extraction

211120

Crude Petroleum Extraction

21113

Natural Gas Extraction

211130

Natural Gas Extraction

213111

Drilling Oil and Gas Wells

213112

Support Activities for Oil and Gas Operations

2212

Natural Gas Distribution

22121

Natural Gas Distribution

221210

Natural Gas Distribution

237120

Oil and Gas Pipeline and Related Structures Construction

4861

Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil

48611

Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil

486110

Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil

4862

Pipeline Transportation of Natural Gas

48621

Pipeline Transportation of Natural Gas

486210

Pipeline Transportation of Natural Gas

26


-------
Information on the development of the 2020 NEI oil and gas emissions can be found in Section 13 of the
2020 NEI TSD. The point oil and gas emissions for 2022 by state are shown in Table 2-3.

Table 2-3. Point source oil and gas sector emissions for 2022

State

2022 NOx

2022 VOC

Alabama

10,608

1,209

Alaska

38,698

1,730

Arizona

2,374

180

Arkansas

4,029

320

California

2,564

2,430

Colorado

13,642

11,074

Connecticut

59

35

Delaware

6

1

Florida

6,192

696

Georgia

3,114

526

Idaho

1,291

38

Illinois

4,567

1,039

Indiana

949

136

Iowa

3,962

223

Kansas

17,741

3,009

Kentucky

9,201

1,125

Louisiana

27,882

8,160

Maine

32

64

Maryland

188

164

Massachusetts

235

69

Michigan

9,134

990

Minnesota

2,377

172

Mississippi

22,452

1,930

Missouri

2,342

92

Montana

812

1,027

Nebraska

2,757

266

Nevada

236

22

New Jersey

95

94

New Mexico

34,981

63,796

New York

1,072

256

North Carolina

1,681

237

North Dakota

4,197

2,736

Ohio

8,828

1,584

Oklahoma

33,870

26,113

Oregon

1,019

94

Pennsylvania

3,027

918

Puerto Rico

39

25

27


-------
State

2022 NOx

2022 VOC

Rhode Island

315

121

South Carolina

358

10

South Dakota

6,452

532

Tennessee

46,513

20,607

Texas

2,453

652

Utah

95

94

Virginia

2,725

428

Washington

874

56

West Virginia

8,335

3,263

Wisconsin

429

205

Wyoming

13,283

50,751

Offshore

34,660

31,406

Tribal Data

7,813

2,213

2.1.3 Aircraft and ground support equipment (airports)

Emissions at airports were separated from other sources in the point inventory based on sources that
have the facility source type of 100 (airports). The airports sector includes all aircraft types used for
public, private, and military purposes and aircraft ground support equipment. The Federal Aviation
Administration's (FAA) Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) is used to estimate emissions for this
sector. Additional information about aircraft emission estimates can be found in section 3 of the 2020
NEI TSD (EPA, 2023). EPA ran AEDT for 2022 for the largest (51) airports in the United States. For more
information on the estimation of emissions from larger airports, please see, 2022 National Emissions
Inventory: Aviation Component (ERG, 2024a). Smaller airport emissions were projected from the 2020
NEI to 2022 using factors derived from the 2023 Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)4 data. EPA used airport-
specific factors where available. Emissions for Hartsfield-Jackson (ATL) airport were provided by Georgia
EPD. Airport emissions were spread out into multiple 12km grid cells when the airport runways were
determined to overlap multiple grid cells. Otherwise, airport emissions for a specific airport are confined
to one air quality model grid cell. The SCCs included in the airport sector are shown in Table 2-4.

Table 2-4. SCCs for the airports sector

see

Tier 1 description

Tier 2 description

Tier 3 description

Tier 4
description

2265008005

Mobile Sources

Off-highway Vehicle
Gasoline, 4-Stroke

Airport Ground Support
Equipment

Total

2270008005

Mobile Sources

Off-highway Vehicle
Diesel

Airport Ground Support
Equipment

Total

2275001000

Mobile Sources

Aircraft

Military Aircraft

Total

2275020000

Mobile Sources

Aircraft

Commercial Aircraft

Total: All
Types

2275050011

Mobile Sources

Aircraft

General Aviation

Piston

2275050012

Mobile Sources

Aircraft

General Aviation

Turbine

4 See https://www.faa.gov/data research/aviation/taf for 2023 TAF released in January 2024.

28


-------
see

Tier 1 description

Tier 2 description

Tier 3 description

Tier 4
description

2275060011

Mobile Sources

Aircraft

Air Taxi

Piston

2275060012

Mobile Sources

Aircraft

Air Taxi

Turbine

2275070000

Mobile Sources

Aircraft

Auxiliary Power Units

Total

2.1.4 Non-IPM sector (ptnonipm)

With some exceptions, the ptnonipm sector contains the point sources that are not in the ptegu,
pt_oilgas, or airports sectors. For the most part, the ptnonipm sector reflects non-EGU emissions
sources and rail yards. However, it is possible that some low-emitting EGUs not matched to units in the
NEEDS database or to CEMS data are in the ptnonipm sector.

The ptnonipm sector contains a small amount of fugitive dust PM emissions from vehicular traffic on
paved or unpaved roads at industrial facilities, coal handling at coal mines, and grain elevators. Sources
with state/county FIPS code ending with "111" are in the NEI but are not included in any modeling
sectors. These sources typically represent mobile (temporary) asphalt plants that are only reported for
some states and are generally in a fixed location for only a part of the year and are therefore difficult to
allocate to specific places and days as is needed for modeling. Therefore, these sources are dropped
from the point-based sectors in the modeling platform.

The ptnonipm sources (i.e., not EGUs and non -oil and gas sources) were used as-is from the 2022 NEI
point inventory following updates from the Collaborative review. Solvent emissions from point sources
were removed from the np_solvents sector to prevent double-counting, so that all point sources can be
retained in the modeling as point sources rather than as area sources. The modeling was based on the
point flat file exported from EIS on June 15, 2024, and included updates from the Collaborative review
process for the 2022 base year, and updates specific to ethylene oxide. The np_solvents sector is
described in more detail in Section 2.2.6.

Emissions from rail yards are included in the ptnonipm sector. Railyards are from the 2020 NEI railyard
inventory with a projection factor applied. Additional information about railyard estimates can be found
in section 3 of the 2020 NEI TSD.

2.2 Nonpoint sources (afdust, fertilizer, livestock, np_oilgas, rwc, np_solvents, nonpt)

This section describes the stationary nonpoint sources in the NEI nonpoint data category. Locomotives,
CI and C2 CMV, and C3 CMV are included in the NEI nonpoint data category but are mobile sources that
are described in Section 2.4. The 2020 NEI TSD includes documentation for the nonpoint data.

Nonpoint tribal emissions submitted to the NEI are dropped during spatial processing with SMOKE due
to the configuration of the spatial surrogates. Part of the reason for this is to prevent possible double-
counting with county-level emissions and also because spatial surrogates for tribal data are not currently
available. These omissions are not expected to have an impact on the results of the air quality modeling
at the 12-km resolution used for this platform.

The following subsections describe how the sources in the NEI nonpoint inventory were separated into
modeling platform sectors, along with any data that were updated (replaced) with non-NEI data.

29


-------
2.2.1 Area fugitive dust sector (afdust)

The area-source fugitive dust (afdust) sector contains PMio and PM2.5 emission estimates for nonpoint
SCCs identified by EPA as dust sources. Categories included in the afdust sector are paved roads,
unpaved roads and airstrips, construction (residential, industrial, road and total), agriculture production,
and mining and quarrying. It does not include fugitive dust from grain elevators, coal handling at coal
mines, or vehicular traffic on paved or unpaved roads at industrial facilities because these are treated as
point sources so they are properly located. Table 2-5 is a listing of the Source Classification Codes (SCCs)
in the afdust sector.

Table 2-5. Afdust sector SCCs

see

Tier 1 description

Tier 2 description

Tier 3 description

Tier 4 description

2294000000

Mobile Sources

Paved Roads

All Paved Roads

Total: Fugitives

2296000000

Mobile Sources

Unpaved Roads

All Unpaved Roads

Total: Fugitives

2311010000

Industrial Processes

Construction: SIC 15 -17

Residential

Total

2311020000

Industrial Processes

Construction: SIC 15 -17

Industrial/Commercial/
Institutional

Total

2311030000

Industrial Processes

Construction: SIC 15 -17

Road Construction

Total

2325000000

Industrial Processes

Mining and Quarrying: SIC
14

All Processes

Total

2325020000

Industrial Processes

Mining and Quarrying: SIC
14

Crushed and Broken
Stone

Total

2325030000

Industrial Processes

Mining and Quarrying: SIC
14

Sand and Gravel

Total

2325060000

Industrial Processes

Mining and Quarrying: SIC
10

Lead Ore Mining and
Milling

Total

2801000000

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production - Crops

Agriculture - Crops

Total

2801000003

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production - Crops

Agriculture - Crops

Tilling

2801000005

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production - Crops

Agriculture - Crops

Harvesting

2801000008

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production - Crops

Agriculture - Crops

Transport

2805100010

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production - Livestock

Dust kicked up by
Livestock

Beef cattle -
finishing
operations on
feedlots (drylots)

2805100020

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production - Livestock

Dust kicked up by
Livestock

Dairy Cattle

2805100030

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production - Livestock

Dust kicked up by
Livestock

Broilers

2805100040

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production - Livestock

Dust kicked up by
Livestock

Layers

2805100050

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production - Livestock

Dust kicked up by
Livestock

Swine

2805100060

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production - Livestock

Dust kicked up by
Livestock

Turkeys

30


-------
Area Fugitive Dust Transportable Fraction Adjustments

The afdust sector was separated from other nonpoint sectors to allow for the application of a
"transportable fraction" and meteorological/precipitation reductions. These adjustments were applied
using a script that applies land use-based gridded transport fractions based on landscape roughness,
followed by another script that performs meteorological adjustments that zeroes out emissions for days
on which at least 0.01 inches of precipitation occurs or there is snow cover on the ground. The land use
data used to reduce the NEI emissions determines the amount of emissions that are subject to
transport. For example, less dust would be transported on a forest floor, than would be on an open
plain. This methodology is discussed in Pouliot, et al., 2010, and in "Fugitive Dust Modeling for the 2008
Emissions Modeling Platform" (Adelman, 2012). Both the transportable fraction and meteorological
adjustments are based on the gridded resolution of the platform (i.e., 12km grid cells); therefore,
different emissions will result if the process were applied to different grid resolutions. A limitation of
the transportable fraction approach is the lack of monthly variability that would be expected with
seasonal changes in vegetative cover. While wind speed and direction were not accounted for in the
emissions processing, the hourly variability due to soil moisture, snow cover and precipitation were
accounted for in the subsequent meteorological adjustment. The factor is treated as a multiplicative
factor for the emissions. Thus, if the factor is 1 (i.e., water), the dust emissions are not reduced at all,
and if the factor is near 0, the emissions are substantially reduced.

Area Fugitive Dust 2020-2022 Projection Factors

Paved road dust emissions were from the 2020 NEI adjusted to 2022 levels based on changes between
2020 and 2022 VMT. Dust from livestock hooves were also adjusted based on ratios of 2022 to 2020
livestock counts but all other types of dust emissions were held constant from 2020 to 2022. For the
fugitive dust emissions compiled into the 2020 NEI, meteorological adjustments were applied to paved
and unpaved road SCCs but not transport-related adjustments. This is because the modeling platform
applies meteorological adjustments and transportable fraction adjustments based on unadjusted NEI
values. For the 2022 platform, the meteorological adjustments that were applied in the NEI for the
paved and unpaved road SCCs were backed out and reapplied in SMOKE at an hourly resolution for each
grid cell. The FF10 that is run through SMOKE consists of 100% unadjusted emissions, and after SMOKE
all afdust sources have both transportable and meteorological adjustments applied according to year
2022 meteorology. The total impacts of the transportable fraction and meteorological adjustments are
shown in Table 2-6.

Table 2-6. Total impact of 2022 fugitive dust adjustments to the unadjusted inventory

State

Unadjusted
PMio

Unadjusted

PM2.5

Change in
PM10

Change in

PM2.5

PM10
Reduction

PM2.5
Reduction

Alabama

274,336

35,494

-202,367

-25,972

73.4%

72.8%

Arizona

153,731

20,858

-56,262

-7,470

36.0%

35.3%

Arkansas

398,457

55,506

-276,216

-37,439

69.1%

67.2%

California

336,443

43,093

-140,763

-17,470

41.3%

40.0%

Colorado

276,997

39,377

-145,222

-19,463

52.1%

49.1%

Connecticut

21,526

3,333

-15,568

-2,400

71.6%

71.3%

Delaware

16,535

2,554

-9,619

-1,483

57.3%

57.2%

31


-------
State

Unadjusted
PMio

Unadjusted

PM2.5

Change in
PM10

Change in

PM2.5

PM10
Reduction

PM2.5
Reduction

District of
Columbia

3,494

477

-2,325

-318

65.5%

65.7%

Florida

215,212

34,456

-117,305

-18,353

53.9%

52.7%

Georgia

296,225

41,844

-218,924

-30,614

73.5%

72.8%

Idaho

496,108

58,552

-288,420

-32,354

57.8%

55.0%

Illinois

702,578

90,846

-423,470

-53,837

60.0%

59.0%

Indiana

160,577

29,875

-98,398

-18,297

60.8%

60.8%

Iowa

370,922

54,793

-207,369

-29,999

55.7%

54.6%

Kansas

583,732

79,848

-238,573

-31,989

40.6%

39.9%

Kentucky

179,629

29,151

-127,894

-20,583

70.9%

70.3%

Louisiana

196,181

29,769

-125,867

-18,850

63.8%

63.0%

Maine

41,717

5,878

-33,149

-4,674

79.1%

79.1%

Maryland

60,743

8,821

-39,070

-5,688

63.6%

63.8%

Massachusetts

63,722

8,640

-46,310

-6,151

72.1%

70.6%

Michigan

293,285

38,837

-199,924

-26,154

67.8%

67.0%

Minnesota

537,979

72,776

-331,407

-43,413

61.4%

59.4%

Mississippi

439,287

52,963

-320,342

-37,933

72.6%

71.4%

Missouri

1,439,199

165,014

-960,853

-108,931

66.5%

65.7%

Montana

498,406

66,114

-321,080

-40,509

64.2%

61.1%

Nebraska

507,702

69,197

-194,215

-25,960

38.0%

37.3%

Nevada

125,368

16,303

-43,279

-5,635

33.8%

33.9%

New Hampshire

16,102

3,307

-12,859

-2,634

79.2%

79.0%

New Jersey

36,477

7,100

-23,617

-4,520

64.2%

63.0%

New Mexico

176,997

22,719

-73,934

-9,313

41.4%

40.6%

New York

264,168

37,984

-196,292

-27,753

73.8%

72.6%

North Carolina

257,146

35,016

-183,428

-24,779

70.9%

70.4%

North Dakota

360,358

55,646

-197,013

-29,403

54.5%

52.7%

Ohio

276,882

43,091

-188,841

-29,167

67.7%

67.2%

Oklahoma

562,803

77,603

-279,078

-37,504

49.3%

48.1%

Oregon

731,384

81,811

-548,493

-59,487

74.7%

72.4%

Pennsylvania

149,280

26,152

-106,519

-18,934

70.7%

71.8%

Rhode Island

6,003

1,006

-4,056

-674

66.7%

66.2%

South Carolina

190,577

25,236

-137,314

-18,038

71.7%

71.1%

South Dakota

210,669

37,092

-95,147

-16,442

45.0%

44.2%

Tennessee

141,443

26,022

-98,397

-18,111

69.2%

69.2%

Texas

1,540,940

214,891

-691,078

-94,837

44.5%

43.8%

Utah

142,084

18,020

-80,959

-9,976

56.5%

54.9%

Vermont

58,010

6,495

-50,078

-5,574

86.0%

85.5%

Virginia

138,872

22,095

-106,664

-17,031

76.3%

76.6%

32


-------
State

Unadjusted
PMio

Unadjusted

PM2.5

Change in
PM10

Change in

PM2.5

PM10
Reduction

PM2.5
Reduction

Washington

174,558

21,778

-101,076

-12,665

57.3%

57.6%

West Virginia

70,339

9,842

-62,535

-8,718

88.5%

88.2%

Wisconsin

202,901

34,398

-135,251

-22,889

66.2%

66.2%

Wyoming

588,124

62,948

-332,653

-35,219

56.3%

55.7%

Domain Total
(12km CONUS)

14,986,209

2,024,623

-8,889,472

-1,175,604

59.0%

57.8%

For categories other than paved roads, where states submitted afdust data to the NEI it was assumed
that the state-submitted data were not met-adjusted and therefore the meteorological adjustments
were applied. Thus, if states submitted data that were met-adjusted for sources other than paved and
unpaved roads, these sources would have been adjusted for meteorology twice. Even with that
possibility, air quality modeling shows that, in general, dust is frequently overestimated in the air quality
modeling results.

Figure 2-1 illustrates the impact of each step of the adjustment. The reductions due to the transportable
fraction adjustments alone are shown at the top of the figure. The reductions due to the precipitation
adjustments alone are shown in the middle of the figure. The cumulative emission reductions after both
transport fraction and meteorological adjustments are shown at the bottom of the figure. The top plot
shows how the transport fraction has a larger reduction effect in the east, where forested areas are
more effective at reducing PM transport than in many western areas. The middle plot shows how the
meteorological impacts of precipitation, along with snow cover in the north, further reduce the dust
emissions.

33


-------
Figure 2-1. Fugitive dust emissions and impact of adjustments due to transportable fraction,

precipitation, and cumulative

2022hc afdust annual : PM2 5,

>81

60

40

20

0

-20
-40
-60
<-81

Max: 883.7736 Min:

2022hc afdust annual : PM2 5, xportfrac reduction

Max: 0.0 Min: -1726.271

34


-------
2022hc afdust annual : PM2 5, precip reduction

Max: 0.0

2022hc afdust annual : PM2 5. xportfrac and precip —	

>28

21

14

c
o

-7
-14
-21
<-28

>104
78
52
26
0
-26
-52
-78
<-104

c

0)
u

v_

O)
Q.

35


-------
2.2.2 Agricultural Livestock (livestock)

The livestock SCCs are shown in Table 2-7. The livestock emissions are related to beef and dairy cattle,
poultry production and waste, swine production, waste from horses and ponies, and production and
waste for sheep, lambs, and goats. The sector does not include quite all of the livestock NH3 emissions,
as there is a very small amount of NH3 emissions from livestock in the ptnonipm inventory (as point
sources). In addition to NH3, the sector includes livestock emissions for all pollutants other than PM2.5,
since PM2.5from dust kicked up from livestock hooves are included in the afdust sector.

Agricultural livestock emissions in the 2022 platform were developed using methods similar to those
used to develop the 2020 NEI, which is a mix of state-submitted data and EPA estimates. The 2020 NEI
approach for estimating livestock emissions utilizes daily emission factors by animal and county from a
model developed by Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) (Pinder, 2004, McQuilling, 2015) and 2020 U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) survey. Details on the
approach used to develop livestock emissions for the 2020 NEI are provided in Section 10 of the 2020
NEI TSD. Animal populations used for estimating livestock emissions came from 2022 USDA survey data
(see QuickStats at https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov) for the available counties. The FEM model was run
for 2022 using the 2022 animal counts and meteorological data for 2022 to create the emission
inventories for the livestock sector.

Table 2-7. SCCs for the livestock sector

see

Tier 1 description

Tier 2 description

Tier 3 description

Tier 4 description

2805002000

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production -
Livestock

Beef cattle production
composite

Not Elsewhere Classified

2805007100

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production -
Livestock

Poultry production - layers
with dry manure
management systems

Confinement

2805009100

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production -
Livestock

Poultry production - broilers

Confinement

2805010100

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production -
Livestock

Poultry production - turkeys

Confinement

2805018000

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production -
Livestock

Dairy cattle composite

Not Elsewhere Classified

2805025000

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production -
Livestock

Swine production composite

Not Elsewhere Classified
(see also 28-05-039, -047, -
053)

2805035000

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production -
Livestock

Horses and Ponies Waste
Emissions

Not Elsewhere Classified

2805040000

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production -
Livestock

Sheep and Lambs Waste
Emissions

Total

2805045000

Miscellaneous Area
Sources

Ag. Production -
Livestock

Goats Waste Emissions

Not Elsewhere Classified

2.2.3 Agricultural Fertilizer (fertilizer)

As described in the 2020 NEI TSD, fertilizer emissions were based on the FEST-C model
(https://www.cmascenter.org/fest-c/). Unlike most of the other emissions input to the CMAQ model,
fertilizer emissions are computed during a run of CMAQ in bi-directional mode and are output during the

36


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model run. The bidirectional version of CMAQ (v5.4) and the Fertilizer Emissions Scenario Tool for CMAQ
FEST-C (vl.3) were used to estimate ammonia (NHb) emissions from agricultural soils. The computed
emissions were saved during the CMAQ, run so they can be included in emissions summaries and in
other model runs that do not use the bidirectional method.

FEST-C is the software program that processes land use and agricultural activity data to develop inputs
for the CMAQ model when run with bidirectional exchange. FEST-C reads land use data from the
Biogenic Emissions Landuse Dataset (BELD). meteorological variables from the Weather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) model for the year to be modeled, and nitrogen deposition data from a previous or
historical average CMAQ simulation. FEST-C, then uses the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate
(EPIC) modeling system (https://ej3icapex.tamu.edu/epic/) to simulate the agricultural practices and soil
biogeochemistry and provides information regarding fertilizer timing, composition, application method
and amount.

An iterative calculation was applied to estimate fertilizer emissions. First, fertilizer application by crop
type was estimated using FEST-C modeled data. To develop the emissions for this platform, CMAQ v5.4
was run with the Surface Tiled Aerosol and Gaseous Exchange (STAGE) deposition option along with
bidirectional exchange to estimate fertilizer and biogenic NHS emissions. However, for this study, the
M3DRY option was used to develop the fertilizer emissions. Figure 2-2 shows a schematic of the
bidirectional modeling system.

Figure 2-2. "Bidi" modeling system used to compute emissions from fertilizer application

The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ

(FEST-C)

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Fertilizer Activity Data

The following activity parameters were input into the EPIC model:

•	Grid cell meteorological variables from WRF

•	Initial soil profiles/soil selection

•	Presence of 21 major crops: irrigated and rain fed hay, alfalfa, grass, barley, beans, grain corn,
silage corn, cotton, oats, peanuts, potatoes, rice, rye, grain sorghum, silage sorghum, soybeans,
spring wheat, winter wheat, canola, and other crops (e.g., lettuce, tomatoes, etc.)

•	Fertilizer sales to establish the type/composition of nutrients applied

•	Management scenarios for the 10 USDA production regions. These include irrigation, tile
drainage, intervals between forage harvest, fertilizer application method (injected versus surface
applied), and equipment commonly used in these production regions.

The WRF meteorological model was used to provide grid cell meteorological parameters for the year
2022 using a national 12-km rectangular grid covering the continental U.S. The meteorological
parameters in Table 2-8 were used as EPIC model inputs.

Table 2-8. Source of input variables for EPIC

EPIC input variable

Variable Source

Daily Total Radiation (MJ/m2)

WRF

Daily Maximum 2-m Temperature (C)

WRF

Daily minimum 2-m temperature (C)

WRF

Daily Total Precipitation (mm)

WRF

Daily Average Relative Humidity (unitless)

WRF

Daily Average 10-m Wind Speed (m s_1)

WRF

Daily Total Wet Deposition Oxidized N (g/ha)

CMAQ

Daily Total Wet Deposition Reduced N (g/ha)

CMAQ

Daily Total Dry Deposition Oxidized N (g/ha)

CMAQ

Daily Total Dry Deposition Reduced N (g/ha)

CMAQ

Daily Total Wet Deposition Organic N (g/ha)

CMAQ

Initial soil nutrient and pH conditions in EPIC were based on the 1992 USDA Soil Conservation Service
(CSC) Soils-5 survey. The EPIC model then was run for 25 years using current fertilization and agricultural
cropping techniques to estimate soil nutrient content and pH for the 2017 EPIC/WRF/CMAQ simulation.

The presence of crops in each model grid cell was determined using USDA Census of Agriculture data
(2012) and USGS National Land Cover data (2011). These two data sources were used to compute the
fraction of agricultural land in a model grid cell and the mix of crops grown on that land.

38


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Fertilizer sales data and the 6-month period in which they were sold were extracted from the 2014
Association of American Plant Food Control Officials (AAPFCO,

http://www.aapfco.org/publications.html). AAPFCO data were used to identify the composition (e.g.,
urea, nitrate, organic) of the fertilizer used, and the amount applied was estimated using the modeled
crop demand. These data were useful in making a reasonable assignment of what kind of fertilizer was
applied to which crops.

Management activity data refers to data used to estimate representative crop management schemes.
The USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-
products/arms-farm-financial-and-crop-production-practices /) was used to provide management
activity data. These data cover 10 USDA production regions and provide management schemes for
irrigated and rain fed hay, alfalfa, grass, barley, beans, grain corn, silage corn, cotton, oats, peanuts,
potatoes, rice, rye, grain sorghum, silage sorghum, soybeans, spring wheat, winter wheat, canola, and
other crops (e.g., lettuce, tomatoes, etc.).

2.2.4 Nonpoint Oil and Gas Sector (np_oilgas)

The nonpoint oil and gas (np_oilgas) sector includes onshore and offshore oil and gas emissions. The EPA
estimated emissions for all counties with 2022 oil and gas activity data using the Oil and Gas Tool. The
types of sources covered include drill rigs, workover rigs, artificial lift, hydraulic fracturing engines,
pneumatic pumps and other devices, storage tanks, flares, truck loading, compressor engines, and
dehydrators. Because of the importance of emissions from this sector, special consideration was given
to the speciation, spatial allocation, and monthly temporalization of nonpoint oil and gas emissions,
instead of relying on older, more generalized profiles.

The 2020 NEI version of the Nonpoint Oil and Gas Emission Estimation Tool (i.e., the "NEl oil and gas
tool") populated with 2022-specific activity data and updated with Subpart W data was used to estimate
2022. Year 2022 oil and gas activity data were obtained from Enverus' activity database
(www.enverus.com) and supplied by some state air agencies. The NEI oil and gas tool is an Access
database that utilizes county-level activity data (e.g., oil production and well counts), operational
characteristics (types and sizes of equipment), and emission factors to estimate emissions. The tool was
used to create a CSV-formatted emissions dataset covering all national nonpoint oil and gas emissions.
This dataset was converted to the FF10 format for use in SMOKE modeling. More details on the inputs
for and running of the tool for 2020 are provided in the 2020 NEI TSD. Table 2-9 shows the nonpoint oil
and gas NOx and VOC emissions for 2022 by state. The Colorado emissions in this table include updated
emissions for the state developed from the Oil and Gas Tool and state-submitted emissions, along with
emissions submitted to the 2020 NEI within the Southern Ute reservation that are still used in this 2022
platform. For spatial allocation purposes, the Southern Ute oil and gas emissions - totaling 11,663
tons/yr of NOx and 879 tons/yr of VOC - were allocated to Colorado counties, with 95% of the emissions
in La Plata County (FIPS 08067) and 5% of the emissions in Archuleta County (FIPS 08007).

Table 2-9. Nonpoint oil and gas emissions for 2022

State

2022 NOx

2022 VOC

Alabama

3,914

11,545

Alaska

2,815

9,665

Arizona

12

137

39


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State

2022 NOx

2022 VOC

Arkansas

4,586

8,526

California

1,298

28,206

Colorado

29,542

56,625

Florida

19

1,123

Georgia

0

0

Idaho

12

99

Illinois

13,887

49,502

Indiana

2,741

13,492

Iowa

0

0

Kansas

22,927

62,638

Kentucky

16,116

42,631

Louisiana

17,099

52,799

Maryland

1

2

Michigan

10,435

13,227

Minnesota

0

0

Mississippi

1,807

17,404

Missouri

232

554

Montana

1,815

31,980

Nebraska

247

1,778

Nevada

4

160

New Mexico

99,096

282,137

New York

887

7,131

North Carolina

0

0

North Dakota

43,681

226,680

Ohio

2,996

30,890

Oklahoma

44,446

170,335

Oregon

6

20

Pennsylvania

58,718

139,865

South Dakota

196

1,291

Tennessee

1,057

3,272

Texas

258,865

1,339,498

Utah

8,442

69,862

Virginia

3,826

7,883

Washington

0

3

West Virginia

25,351

77,700

Wyoming

1,943

8,571

A new source was added to the oil and gas sector for the 2020 NEI. Pipeline Blowdowns and Pigging
(SCC= 2310021801) emissions were estimated using US EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program
(GHGRP) data. These Pipeline Blowdowns and Pigging emissions for year 2022 included county-level
estimates of VOC, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX). These emissions estimates were
calculated outside of the Oil and GasTool and submitted to EIS separately from the Oil and GasTool
emissions. These emissions were considered EPA default emissions and SLTs had the opportunity to

40


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submit their own Pipeline Blowdowns and Pigging (e.g., Utah) emissions and/or accept/omit these
emissions using the Nonpoint Survey. Unfortunately, these EPA default Pipeline Blowdowns and Pigging
emissions did not get into the 2020 NEI release for the states that accepted these emissions due to EIS
tagging issues. These emissions were included in this 2022 Emissions Modeling Platform. Table 2-10
shows the emissions totals by state for Pipeline Blowdowns and Pigging sources.

An additional new source was added to the oil and gas sector for this 2021 and 2022 modeling
platforms. This new source was abandoned oil and gas wells in the USA. The term "abandoned wells"
encompasses various types of wells:

•	Wells with no recent production, and not plugged. Common terms (such as those used in state
databases) might include: inactive, temporarily abandoned, shut-in, dormant, and idle.

•	Wells with no recent production and no responsible operator. Common terms might include:
orphaned, deserted, long-term idle, and abandoned.

•	Wells that have been plugged to prevent migration of gas or fluids.

As of year 2022, there were approximately 3.7 million abandoned wells in the U.S., with around 2.3
million abandoned oil wells, 0.6 million abandoned gas wells, and 0.8 million abandoned dry wells (may
be oil or gas wells). Abandoned wells may emit CH4, C02, VOC, and various HAP.

Estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (CH4 and C02) from abandoned wells have been
estimated as part of the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks since 2018. Currently,
the inventory from 1990 - 2022 is available5. The GHG inventory (GHGI) methodology and estimates of
emissions from abandoned wells served as the starting point for development of the VOC and HAP
emissions inventory for abandoned wells used in this year 2022 modeling platform. Year 2022
estimates of VOC and BTEX were estimated and used in this 2022 modeling platform. Table 2-11 shows
the emissions totals by state for Pipeline Blowdowns and Pigging sources. The inventories for
blowdowns and pigging and abandoned wells are separate from the emissions output from the oil and
gas tool.

Table 2-10. State emissions totals for year 2022 for Pipeline Blowdowns and Pigging sources

State

VOC (tpy)

Benzene (tpy)

Ethylbenzene (tpy)

Toluene (tpy)

Xylene (tpy)

Alabama

329

1.35

0.074

1.17

0.35

Alaska

14

0.06

0.004

0.06

0.02

Arizona

97

0.44

0.025

0.39

0.11

Arkansas

22

0.01

0.000

0.00

0.00

California

146

0.67

0.038

0.59

0.17

Colorado

2,137

5.47

0.273

6.86

2.14

Florida

2

0.00

0.000

0.00

0.00

Illinois

210

0.77

0.043

0.68

0.19

Indiana

180

0.73

0.042

0.65

0.19

Kansas

1,326

2.34

0.273

1.98

0.86

Kentucky

531

2.40

0.136

2.14

0.61

Louisiana

365

3.01

0.000

0.30

0.51

Maryland

0

0.00

0.000

0.00

0.00

5 Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks I US EPA

41


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State

VOC (tpy)

Benzene (tpy)

Ethylbenzene (tpy)

Toluene (tpy)

Xylene (tpy)

Michigan

239

1.08

0.061

0.97

0.27

Mississippi

2,183

3.35

0.072

1.29

1.08

Missouri

4

0.00

0.000

0.00

0.00

Montana

147

0.67

0.038

0.59

0.17

Nebraska

57

0.14

0.007

0.17

0.05

New Mexico

1,044

0.00

0.000

0.00

0.00

New York

140

0.63

0.036

0.57

0.16

North Dakota

9

0.04

0.002

0.04

0.01

Ohio

391

1.77

0.100

1.58

0.45

Oklahoma

2,004

1.47

0.090

1.16

0.89

Oregon

8

0.04

0.002

0.03

0.01

Pennsylvania

66

0.30

0.017

0.27

0.08

South Dakota

2

0.01

0.001

0.01

0.00

Tennessee

13

0.06

0.003

0.05

0.01

Texas

9,599

9.05

0.236

3.82

3.23

Utah

18

0.09

0.005

0.08

0.04

Virginia

189

0.86

0.049

0.77

0.22

West Virginia

859

3.89

0.221

3.47

0.99

Wyoming

680

4.19

0.327

2.04

1.34

US Total

23,010

44.92

2.172

31.77

14.15

Table 2-11. State emissions totals for year 2022 for Abandoned Wells sources

State

2022 VOC (tpy)

Alabama

198

Alaska

64

Arizona

10

Arkansas

794

California

5,357

Colorado

451

Florida

32

Georgia

0

Idaho

0

Illinois

6,738

Indiana

3,326

Iowa

0

Kansas

6,663

Kentucky

12,817

Louisiana

3,195

Maryland

1

Michigan

487

Minnesota

0

Mississippi

749

Missouri

118

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State

2022 VOC (tpy)

Montana

740

Nebraska

141

Nevada

34

New Mexico

348

New York

596

North Carolina

0

North Dakota

401

Ohio

22,286

Oklahoma

8,944

Oregon

3

Pennsylvania

69,730

South Dakota

31

Tennessee

1,329

Texas

31,588

Utah

178

Virginia

69

Washington

3

West Virginia

2,723

Wyoming

552

US Total

180,694

Lastly, EPA and the state of Oklahoma, New Mexico and Kansas worked together to exercise the point
source subtraction step in the Oil and Gas Tool during the 2022 platform development period. This point
source subtraction step is a process used to eliminate possible double counting of sources in the Oil and
Gas Tool that are already defined in the point source inventory.

2.2.5 Residential Wood Combustion (rwc)

The residential wood combustion (rwc) sector includes residential wood burning devices such as
fireplaces, fireplaces with inserts (inserts), free standing woodstoves, pellet stoves, outdoor hydronic
heaters (also known as outdoor wood boilers), indoor furnaces, and outdoor burning in firepots and
chimeneas. Free standing woodstoves and inserts are further differentiated into three categories:
1) conventional (not EPA certified); 2) EPA certified, catalytic; and 3) EPA certified, noncatalytic.
Generally speaking, the conventional units were constructed prior to 1988. Units constructed after 1988
have to meet EPA emission standards and they are either catalytic or non-catalytic. As with the other
nonpoint categories, a mix of S/L and EPA estimates were used. The EPA's estimates use updated
methodologies for activity data and some changes to emission factors. The source classification codes
(SCCs) in the rwc sector are listed in Table 2-12.

The 2022 platform RWC emissions are adjusted from 2020 NEI using SEDS data for 2021. Additionally,
Idaho provided new 2022 RWC emissions data, and California (CARB) requested two updates: use EPA
estimates for the SCC 2104008700, and remove emissions other than NH3 from the SCCs 2104008210,
2104008200, and 2104008230. Some improvements to RWC emissions estimates were developed as
part of the 2020 NEI process. The EPA, along with the Commission on Environmental Cooperation (CEC),

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the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), and Abt Associates, conducted a
national survey of wood-burning activity in 2018. The results of this survey were used to estimate
county-level burning activity data. The activity data for RWC processes is the amount of wood burned in
each county, which is based on data from the CEC survey on the fraction of homes in each county that
use each wood-burning appliance and the average amount of wood burned in each appliance. These
assumptions were used with the number of occupied homes in each county to estimate the total
amount of wood burned in each county, in cords for cordwood appliances and tons for pellet appliances.
Cords of wood were converted to tons using county-level density factors from the U.S. Forest Service.
RWC emissions were calculated by multiplying the tons of wood burned by emissions factors. For more
information on the development of the residential wood combustion emissions, see Section 27 of the
2020 NEITSD.

Table 2-12. SCCs for the residential wood combustion sector

see

Tier 1 Description

Tier 2

Description

Tier 3

Description

Tier 4 Description

2104008100

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Fireplace: general

2104008210

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Woodstove: fireplace inserts;
non-EPA certified

2104008220

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA
certified; non-catalytic

2104008230

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA
certified; catalytic

2104008300

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Woodstove: freestanding, general

2104008310

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Woodstove: freestanding, non-
EPA certified

2104008320

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Woodstove: freestanding, EPA
certified, non-catalytic

2104008330

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Woodstove: freestanding, EPA
certified, catalytic

2104008400

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Woodstove: pellet-fired, general
(freestanding or FP insert)

2104008510

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Furnace: Indoor, cordwood-fired,
non-EPA certified

2104008530

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Furnace: Indoor, pellet-fired,
general

2104008610

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Flydronic heater: outdoor

2104008620

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Flydronic heater: indoor

2104008630

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Flydronic heater: pellet-fired

2104008700

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Wood

Outdoor wood burning device,
NEC (fire-pits, chimeneas, etc)

2104009000

Stationary Source Fuel
Combustion

Residential

Firelog

Total: All Combustor Types

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2.2.6	Solvents (np_solvents)

The np_solvents sector is a diverse collection of emission sources for which emissions are driven by
evaporation. Included in this sector are everyday items, such as cleaners, personal care products,
adhesives, architectural and aerosol coatings, printing inks, and pesticides. These sources exclusively
emit organic gases and feature origins spanning residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial
settings. The organic gases that evaporate from these sources often fulfill other functions than acting as
a traditional solvent (e.g., propellants, fragrances, emollients). For this reason, the solvents sector is
often referred to as "volatile chemical products." The base methodology used to estimate these
emissions are unchanged from the 2020 NEI, which is described in Section 32 of the 2020 NEI TSD.
including the SCCs that are included in the sector.

For 2022, all np_solvent emissions, except asphalt paving, are projected using the 2020 NEI as a base
year. This includes State, Locality, and Tribal emissions submissions. Here, the model used to estimate a
majority of the nonpoint solvent emissions in the NEI (VCPy) was used to estimate 2021 emissions (2022
usage data were not available). From there a SCC-specific ratio (of 2021 / 2020) was applied to the 2020
NEI. This method ensures that state-submitted emissions magnitudes are preserved. In addition, some
updates were made based on comments provided by New Jersey, and asphalt-related SCCs featured
temporal profile updates using ElA-based monthly profiles for "asphalt and road oil" by PADD region.

2.2.7	Open burning (openburn)

This new sector for 2022vl platform was split out from the nonpt sector and includes emissions from
@yard waste, land clearing, and residential household waste burning (SCCs starting with 261). For
2022vl, these emissions were held constant at 2020 NEI levels.

Table 2-13. SCCs in the openburn sector

see

Description

2610000100

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Open Burning; All Categories; Yard Waste -
Leaf Species Unspecified

2610000400

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Open Burning; All Categories; Yard Waste -
Brush Species Unspecified

2610000500

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Open Burning; All Categories; Land Clearing
Debris

2610030000

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Open Burning; Residential; Household Waste

2610000300

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Open Burning; All Categories; Yard Waste -
Weed Species Unspecified (incl Grass)

2.2.8 Nonpoint (nonpt)

The 2022 platform nonpt sector inventory is based on the April 2023 version of the 2020 NEI but
adjusted to better reflect 2022 emissions levels as described below. Stationary nonpoint sources that
were not subdivided into the afdust, livestock, fertilizer, np_oilgas, rwc or np_solvents sectors were
assigned to the "nonpt" sector. Locomotives and CMV mobile sources from the 2020 NEI nonpoint
inventory are described with the mobile sources. The types of sources in the nonpt sector include:

• stationary source fuel combustion, including industrial, commercial, and residential and orchard
heaters;

45


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•	chemical manufacturing;

•	industrial processes such as commercial cooking, metal production, mineral processes,
petroleum refining, wood products, fabricated metals, and refrigeration;

•	storage and transport of petroleum for uses such as portable gas cans, bulk terminals, gasoline
service stations, aviation, and marine vessels;

•	storage and transport of chemicals;

•	waste disposal, treatment, and recovery via incineration, open burning, landfills, and
composting; and

•	miscellaneous area sources such as cremation, hospitals, lamp breakage, and automotive repair
shops.

The nonpt sector includes emission estimates for Portable Fuel Containers (PFCs), also known as "gas
cans." The PFC inventory consists of three distinct sources of PFC emissions, further distinguished by
residential or commercial use. The three sources are: (1) displacement of the vapor within the can; (2)
emissions due to evaporation (i.e., diurnal emissions); and (3) emissions due to permeation. Note that
spillage and vapor displacement associated with using PFCs to refuel nonroad equipment are included in
the nonroad inventory.

The factors used to adjust the emissions were developed using the datasets as described in Table 2-14.
Emissions for SCC groups other than those listed in this table (e.g., waste disposal, treatment and
recovery) were held constant at 2020 NEI levels in the 2022 base year inventory.

Table 2-14. Datasets used to Develop Factors to Adjust Nonpoint Emissions from 2020 to 2022

Source Category Group

2020-2022 Projection Method

All Other Nonpoint Source Fuel
Combustion

Apply EIA State Energy Data System energy consumption ratios.
Note that 2021 SEDS data are available for all fuels and 2022 data
are available for some fuels.

Stage 1 Gasoline Unloading at
Service Stations

Apply EIA State Energy Data System Transportation Sector/Motor
Gasoline consumption ratios

Stage 1 Gasoline Unloading at
Bulk Terminals/Plants

Apply EIA State Energy Data System Total Motor Gasoline
consumption ratios

Aviation Gasoline Stage 1 and II

Apply EIA State Energy Data System Aviation Gasoline consumption
ratios

Pipeline Gasoline

Apply EIA State Energy Data System Total Motor Gasoline
consumption ratios

Human Cremation

Estimate 2022 county-level number of cremations from 2022 actual
county-level deaths from CDC's Wonder Database and 2022 state-
level (projected) cremation rates from National Funeral Directors
Association's "Cremation and Burial Report" and apply 2022/2020
county-level cremation ratios to 2020 NEI cremation emissions to
compute 2022 cremation emissions

Commercial Cooking

Hold constant

Portable Fuel Containers

Hold constant

Asphalt Paving

Hold constant

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Source Category Group

2020-2022 Projection Method

Landfills/POTWs

Hold constant

Charcoal Grilling

Hold constant

2.3 Onroad Mobile sources (onroad)

Onroad mobile sources include emissions from motorized vehicles operating on public roadways. These
include passenger cars, motorcycles, minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks,
and buses. The sources are further divided by the fuel they use, including diesel, gasoline, E-85,
compressed natural gas (CNG), or electric vehicles. The sector characterizes emissions from parked
vehicle processes (e.g., starts, hot soak, and extended idle) as well as from on-network processes (i.e.,
from vehicles as they move along the roads). For more details on the approach and for a summary of
the MOVES inputs submitted by states, see Section 5 of the 2020 NEI TSD (EPA, 2023).

For the 2022 emissions modeling platform activity data (i.e., vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and vehicle
population (VPOP)) were based on data submitted by state and local agencies for the 2020 NEI and for
the 2022 platform, as well as data from Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) annual VMT at the
county level. VMT were based on county-level VM-2 data from FHWA. VPOP was mostly held constant at
2020 levels. A new MOVES run for 2022 was done using MOVES4 to obtain year-specific emission
factors.

Except for California, all onroad emissions were generated using the SMOKE-MOVES emissions modeling
framework that leverages MOVES-generated emission factors https://www.epa.gov/moves). county and
SCC-specific activity data, and hourly 2022 meteorological data. Specifically, EPA used vehicle miles
traveled (VMT) and other 2022-specific activity data, along with tools that interface between the MOVES
model and SMOKE. In this way, it was possible to take advantage of the gridded hourly temperature
data available from meteorological modeling that are also used for air quality modeling. The onroad
source classification codes (SCCs) in the emissions modeling platform are more finely resolved than
those in the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The NEI SCCs distinguish vehicles and fuels, while the
SCCs used in the model platform also distinguish between emissions processes (i.e., off-network, on-
network, and extended idle), and road types. EPA mostly elected to keep 2020 NEI fuel splits (derived
from MOVES3) and not upgrade to MOVES4 fuels.

MOVES4 includes the following updates from MOVES3 that impacted the development of the emissions
modeling platform:

•	Incorporates updates to fuel supply, inspection and maintenance programs, and emission rates.

•	Accounts for the emission impacts of the EPA heavy-duty low NOx rule for model years 2027 and
later and the light-duty greenhouse gas rule for model years 2023 and later.

•	Adds the ability to model heavy-duty battery-electric and fuel-cell vehicles, as well as
compressed natural gas (CNG) long-haul combination trucks.

•	Improves the modeling of light-duty electric vehicles.

2.3.1 Inventory Development using SMOKE-MOVES

Except for California, onroad emissions were computed with SMOKE-MOVES by multiplying specific
types of vehicle activity data by the appropriate emission factors. This section includes discussions of the

47


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activity data and the emission factor development. The vehicles (aka source types) for which MOVES
computes emissions are shown in Table 2-15. SMOKE-MOVES was run for specific modeling grids.
Emissions for the contiguous U.S. states and Washington, D.C., were computed for a grid covering those
areas. Emissions for Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands were computed by running
SMOKE-MOVES for distinct grids covering each of those regions and are included in the onroad non-
Conus sector. In some summary reports these non-CONUS emissions are aggregated with emissions
from the onroad sector.

Table 2-15. MOVES vehicle (source) types

MOVES vehicle type

Description

HPMS vehicle type

11

Motorcycle

10

21

Passenger Car

25

31

Passenger Truck

25

32

Light Commercial Truck

25

41

Other Bus

40

42

Transit Bus

40

43

School Bus

40

51

Refuse Truck

50

52

Single Unit Short-haul Truck

50

53

Single Unit Long-haul Truck

50

54

Motor Home

50

61

Combination Short-haul Truck

60

62

Combination Long-haul Truck

60

SMOKE-MOVES makes use of emission rate "lookup" tables generated by MOVES that differentiate
emissions by process (i.e., running, start, vapor venting, etc.), vehicle type, road type, temperature,
speed, hour of day, etc., to generate the MOVES emission rates that could be applied across the U.S.,
EPA used an automated process to run MOVES to produce year 2022-specific emission factors by
temperature and speed for a series of "representative counties," to which every other county was
mapped. The representative counties for which emission factors were generated were selected
according to their state, elevation, fuels, age distribution, ramp fraction, and inspection and
maintenance programs. Each county was then mapped to a representative county based on its
similarity to the representative county with respect to those attributes. For this study, there are 259
representative counties in the continental U.S. and a total of 298 including the non-CONUS areas. The
only differences between 2020 and 2022 being a change in Alaska county equivalents which removed
one borough (county ID 2261, Valdez-Cordova Census Area) which in 2019 split into two areas (county ID
2063, Chugach Census Area; and county ID 2066, Copper River Census Area), as well as some updates
recommended by Texas.

Once representative counties were identified, emission factors were generated with MOVES for each
representative county and for two "fuel months" - January to represent winter months, and July to
represent summer months - due to the different types of fuels used. SMOKE selected the appropriate
MOVES emissions rates for each county, hourly temperature, SCC, and speed bin and then multiplied the
emission rate by appropriate activity data. For on-roadway emissions, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is the
activity data; off-network processes use vehicle population (VPOP), vehicle starts, and hours of off-

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network idling (ONI); and hoteling hours are used to develop emissions for extended idling of
combination long-haul trucks. These calculations were done for every county and grid cell in the
continental U.S. for each hour of the year.

The SMOKE-MOVES process for creating the model-ready emissions consists of the following steps:

1)	Determine which counties will be used to represent other counties in the MOVES runs.

2)	Determine which months will be used to represent other month's fuel characteristics.

3)	Create inputs needed only by MOVES. MOVES requires county-specific information on vehicle
populations, age distributions, and inspection-maintenance programs for each of the
representative counties.

4)	Create inputs needed both by MOVES and by SMOKE, including temperatures and activity data.

5)	Run MOVES to create emission factor tables for the temperatures found in each county.

6)	Run SMOKE to apply the emission factors to activity data (VMT, VPOP, STARTS, off-network
idling, and HOTELING) to calculate emissions based on the gridded hourly temperatures in the
meteorological data.

7)	Aggregate the results to the county-SCC level for summaries and quality assurance.

The onroad emissions were processed in six processing streams that were then merged together into
the onroad sector emissions after each of the six streams have been processed:

•	rate-per-distance (RPD) uses VMT as the activity data plus speed and speed profile information
to compute on-network emissions from exhaust, evaporative, permeation, refueling, and brake
and tire wear processes;

•	rate-per-vehicle (RPV) uses VPOP activity data to compute off-network emissions from exhaust,
evaporative, permeation, and refueling processes;

•	rate-per-profile (RPS) uses STARTS activity data to compute off-network emissions from vehicles
starts;

•	rate-per-profile (RPP) uses VPOP activity data to compute off-network emissions from
evaporative fuel vapor venting, including hot soak (immediately after a trip) and diurnal (vehicle
parked for a long period) emissions;

•	rate-per-hour (RPH) uses hoteling hours activity data to compute off-network emissions for idling
of long-haul trucks from extended idling and auxiliary power unit process; and

•	rate-per-hour off-network idling (RPHO) uses off network idling hours activity data to compute
off-network idling emissions for all types of vehicles.

The onroad emissions inputs to MOVES for the 2022 emissions modeling platform are based on the 2020
NEI, described in more detail in Section 5 of the 2020 NEI TSD. These inputs include:

•	Key parameters in the MOVES County databases (CDBs) including Low Emission Vehicle (LEV)
table

•	Fuel months

•	Activity data (e.g., VMT, VPOP, speed, HOTELING)

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Fuel months, age distributions, and other inputs were consistent with those used to compute the 2020
NEI. Activity data submitted by states and development of the EPA default activity data sets for VMT,
VPOP, hoteling hours, starts, and off-network idling (ONI) hours follows a similar process to the 2020
NEI, but based on 2022-specific VMT. These methods are described in detail in the 2020 NEI TSD and
supporting documents. Details specific to 2022 activity data development are described below.

2.3.2 Onroad Activity Data Development

SMOKE-MOVES uses vehicle miles traveled (VMT), vehicle population (VPOP), vehicle starts, hours of off-
network idling (ONI), and hours of hoteling, to calculate emissions. These datasets are collectively
known as "activity data." For each of these activity datasets, first a national dataset was developed; this
national dataset is called the "EPA default" dataset. The default was supplemented with data submitted
by state and local agencies. In the EPA default dataset, VMT was derived from FHWA's county-level VM-
2 data for 2022. EPA default VPOP was held constant at 2020 levels, as were the starts and fuel splits.
Hours of hoteling and off-network idling were computed from 2022 VMT. EPA default activity was used
for California, but the emissions were scaled to California-supplied values during the emissions
processing.

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and Vehicle Population (VPOP)

Activity data submitted by states and development of the EPA default activity data sets for VMT, VPOP,
and hoteling hours are described in detail in the 2020 NEI TSD (EPA, 2023) and supporting documents.
The process for developing VMT for 2022 is similar to the 2020 NEI process, except starting with 2022-
specific VMT from the FHWA VM-2 (county-level and by road type) and VM-4 (distributions of VMT by
state and HPMS vehicle type). The VM-2 and VM-4 data were combined to create a 2022 VMT dataset
by county, HPMS vehicle type, and road type. 2020 NEI VMT was then used to allocate VMT from HPMS
vehicle type to MOVES vehicle type, and to different fuel types. New monthly profiles for 2022 VMT
were also used, based on FHWA's Travel Monitoring and Analysis System (TMAS) data. See Section 3.3.8
for more information on the use of TMAS data.

The following states submitted VMT for the 2022 platform base year: AK, CO, CT, DE, GA, KS, MA, Ml,
MD, ME, NC, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, Wl, WV, and Jefferson Co. KY. In the final base
year data, VMT for Colorado are based on EPA default data, and other activity based on VMT was
adjusted as a result of this change. VPOP was mostly held constant with the 2020 NEI VPOP except for a
few states that supplied VPOP data: DE, GA, NY, and Wl.

Speed Activity (SPDIST)

In SMOKE 4.7, SMOKE-MOVES was updated to use speed distributions similarly to how they are used
when running MOVES in inventory mode. The speed distribution file, called SPDIST, specifies the amount
of time spent in each MOVES speed bin for each county, vehicle (aka source) type, road type,
weekday/weekend, and hour of day. This file contains the same information at the same resolution as
the Speed Distribution table used by MOVES but is reformatted for SMOKE.

Speeds are based on data for January 2020 as speed data were not available for 2021 or 2022 in time for
the 2022vl platform. Speed data from the StreetLight dataset were used to generate hourly speed
profiles by county, SCC, and month. The SPDIST files for the 2022 emissions modeling platform are based

50


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on a combination of the StreetLight project data and 2020 NEI MOVES CDBs. More information can be
found in the 2020 NEI TSD (EPA, 2023) and supporting documents.

Hoteling Hours (HOTELING)

Hoteling hours were computed from the 2022 VMT, using a factor of 0.007248 hoteling hours pet VMT
for combination long haul trucks on restricted highways. This is the same approach as in 2020 NEI,
except based on 2022 VMT. Hoteling hours were capped by county at a theoretical maximum and any
excess hours of the maximum were reduced. For calculating reductions, a dataset of truck stop parking
space availability was used, which includes a total number of parking spaces per county. This same
dataset is used to develop the spatial surrogate for allocating county-total hoteling emissions to model
grid cells. The parking space dataset was last updated during the development of the 2016 platforms.
There are 8,760 hours in the year 2022; therefore, the maximum number of possible hoteling hours in a
particular county is equal to 8,760 * the number of parking spaces in that county. Hoteling hours were
capped at that theoretical maximum value for 2022 in all counties, with some exceptions. Also, Texas
submitted hoteling activity for 2020 NEI, and their 2020 hoteling activity was projected to 2022 using
ratios of 2022 VMT / 2020 VMT for combination long haul trucks.

Because the truck stop parking space dataset may be incomplete in some areas, and trucks may
sometimes idle in areas other than designated spaces, it was assumed that every county has at least 12
parking spaces, even if fewer parking spaces are found in the parking space dataset. Therefore, hoteling
hours were never reduced below 105,120 hours for the year in any county. If the unreduced hoteling
hours were already below that maximum, the hours were left unchanged; in other words, hoteling
activity were never increased in this analysis. For recent NEIs, four states requested that no reductions
be applied to the hoteling activity based on parking space availability: CO, ME, NJ, and NY. For these
states, reductions based on parking space availability were not applied. Reductions were also not
applied in Texas, because the hoteling activity in that state are based on state-submitted data.

The final step related to hoteling activity is to split county totals into separate values for extended idling
(SCC 2202620153) and Auxiliary Power Units (APUs) (SCC 2202620191). For 2022 modeling with
MOVES4, an 9.8% APU split is used nationwide, meaning that during 9.8% of the hoteling hours auxiliary
power units are assumed to be running.

Starts

Onroad "start" emissions are the instantaneous exhaust emissions that occur at the engine start (e.g.,
due to the fuel rich conditions in the cylinder to initiate combustion) as well as the additional running
exhaust emissions that occur because the engine and emission control systems have not yet stabilized at
the running operating temperature. Operationally, start emissions are defined as the difference in
emissions between an exhaust emissions test with an ambient temperature start and the same test with
the engine and emission control systems already at operating temperature. As such, the units for start
emission rates are instantaneous grams/start.

MOVES4 uses vehicle population information to sort the vehicle population into source bins defined by
vehicle source type, fuel type (gas, diesel, etc.), regulatory class, model year and age. The model uses
default data from instrumented vehicles (or user-provided values) to estimate the number of starts for

51


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each source bin and to allocate them among eight operating mode bins defined by the amount of time
parked ("soak time") prior to the start. Thus, MOVES4 accounts for different amounts of cooling of the
engine and emission control systems. Each source bin and operating mode has an associated g/start
emission rate. Start emissions are also adjusted to account for fuel characteristics, light duty inspection
and maintenance (l/M) programs, and ambient temperatures. Starts were mostly held constant from
2020 to 2022, except where the VPOP changed and thus starts were changed in proportion to the
change in VPOP. Additionally, new monthly profiles were applied for 2022.

Off-network Idling Hours

After creating VMT inputs for SMOKE-MOVES, Off-network idle (ONI) activity data were also needed.
ONI is defined in MOVES as time during which a vehicle engine is running idle and the vehicle is
somewhere other than on the road, such as in a parking lot, a driveway, or at the side of the road. This
engine activity contributes to total mobile source emissions but does not take place on the road
network. Examples of ONI activity include:

•	light duty passenger vehicles idling while waiting to pick up children at school or to pick up
passengers at the airport or train station,

•	single unit and combination trucks idling while loading or unloading cargo or making
deliveries, and

•	vehicles idling at drive-through restaurants.

Note that ONI does not include idling that occurs on the road, such as idling at traffic signals, stop signs,
and in traffic—these emissions are included as part of the running and crankcase running exhaust
processes on the other road types. ONI also does not include long-duration idling by long-haul
combination trucks (hoteling/extended idle), as that type of long duration idling is accounted for in other
MOVES processes.

ONI activity hours were calculated based on VMT. For each representative county, the ratio of ONI hours
to onroad VMT (on all road types) was calculated using the MOVES ONI Tool by source type, fuel type,
and month. These ratios are then multiplied by each county's total VMT (aggregated by source type, fuel
type, and month) to get hours of ONI activity.

2.3.3 MOVES Emission Factor Table Development

MOVES4 was run in emission rate mode to create emission factor tables for 2022, for all representative
counties and fuel months. The county databases used to run MOVES to develop the emission factor
tables included the state-specific control measures such as the California LEV program, and fuels
representing the year 2022. The range of temperatures run along with the average humidities used
were specific to the year 2022. The remaining settings for the CDBs are documented in the 2020 NEI
TSD. To create the emission factors, MOVES was run separately for each representative county and fuel
month for each temperature bin needed for the calendar year 2022. The MOVES results were post-
processed into CSV-formatted emission factor tables that can be read by SMOKE-MOVES. Additionally,
MOVES was run for all counties in Alaska, Hawaii, and Virgin Islands, and for a single representative
county in Puerto Rico.

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The county databases (CDBs) used to run MOVES to develop the emission factor tables were based on
those used for the 2020 NEI. The 2022 emissions modeling platform development included an extensive
review of the various tables including speed distributions. Each county in the continental U.S. was
classified according to its state, altitude (high or low), fuel region, the presence of l/M programs, and the
mean light-duty age. A binning algorithm was executed to identify "like counties." The result was 259
representative counties for the CONUS shown in Figure 2-3 along with 39 for Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto
Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. The CONUS representation counties for 2022 are the same as those used
for 2020 NEI with the exception of Alaska, which, in 2019, removed one borough (county ID 2261,
Valdez-Cordova Census Area) and split that into two areas (county ID 2063, Chugach Census Area; and
county ID 2066, Copper River Census Area); as well as some updates recommended by Texas.

Figure 2-3. Map of 2022 Representative Counties

Age distributions are a key input to MOVES in determining emission rates. Age distributions were held
constant from 2020 for the 2022 emissions modeling platform; with the exception of Georgia, who
supplied their own age distribution. The age distributions for 2020 were updated based on vehicle
registration data obtained from IMS Markit, subject to reductions for older vehicles. For more
information on how age distributions were developed for the 2020 NEI, please see Section 5 of the 2020
NEITSD.

EPA calculated the adjustment factors representing the fraction of population remaining in every model
year, with two exceptions. Model years from 2011 to 2020 received no adjustment and the model year
1990 received a capped adjustment that equals the adjustment for model year 1991. The adjustment

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factors in Table 2-16 were applied to the 2020 IHS data to create the EPA Default set of population and
age distributions for the NEI.

Table 2-16. The fraction of IHS vehicle populations retained for 2020 NEI and 2022 emissions modeling

platform by model year

Model Year

LDV Adjustment Factor

pre-1991

0.722

1991

0.722

1992

0.728

1993

0.742

1994

0.754

1995

0.766

1996

0.774

1997

0.790

1998

0.787

1999

0.798

2000

0.796

2001

0.806

2002

0.808

2003

0.828

2004

0.844

2005

0.857

2006

0.874

2007

0.892

2008

0.905

2009

0.919

2010

0.929

2011-2021

1

EPA also removed the county-specific fractions of antique license plate vehicles present in the
registration data from IHS, based on the assumption that antique vehicles are operated significantly less
than average. States without any CDB submittals received EPA default populations and age distributions
based on the adjusted IHS data, and some states with submittals were overridden, decided on a case-by-
case basis.

In addition to removing the older and antique plate vehicles from the IHS data, 28 counties found to be
outliers because their fleet age was significantly younger than in typical counties. The outlier review was
limited to LDV source types 21, 31, and 32. Many rural counties have outliers for low-population source
types such as Transit Bus and Refuse Truck due to small sample sizes, but these do not have much of an
impact on the inventory overall and reflect sparse data in low-population areas and therefore do not
require correction.

The most extreme examples of LDV outliers were Light Commercial Truck age distributions where over
85 percent of the population in the entire county is 0 and 1 years old. These sorts of young fleets can

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happen if the headquarters of a leasing or rental company is the owner/entity of a relatively large
number of newer vehicles relative to the county-wide population. While the business owner of
thousands of new vehicles may reside in a single county, the vehicles likely operate in broader areas
without being registered where they drive.

In areas where submitted vehicle population data were accepted for the 2020 NEI, the relative
populations of cars vs. light-duty trucks were reapportioned (while retaining the magnitude of the light-
duty vehicles from the submittals) using the county-specific percentages from the IHS data. In this way,
the categorization of cars versus light trucks is consistent from state to state. The county total light-duty
vehicle populations were preserved through this process.

To create the emission factors, MOVES was run separately for each representative county and fuel
month and for each temperature bin needed for calendar year 2022. The CDBs used to run MOVES
include the state-specific control measures such as the California low emission vehicle (LEV) program. In
addition, the range of temperatures and the average humidities used in the CDBs were specific to the
year 2022. The MOVES results were post-processed into CSV-formatted emission factor tables that can
be read by SMOKE-MOVES.

2.3.4 Onroad California Inventory Development (onroad_ca_adj)

California uses their own emission model, EMFAC, to develop onroad emissions inventories and provides
those inventories to EPA. EMFAC uses emission inventory codes (EICs) to characterize the emission
processes instead of SCCs. The EPA and California worked together to develop a code mapping to better
match EMFAC's EICs to EPA MOVES' detailed set of SCCs that distinguish between off-network and on-
network and brake and tire wear emissions. This detail is needed for modeling but not for the NEI.
California submitted onroad emissions for all 2022vl platform years, including 2022. Since California's
2022 inventory did not contain HAPs, VOC-based speciation factors were used to estimate VOC HAPs for
2022. Other HAPs such as PAHs and metals are not needed for this platform. The EPA added NH3 to the
CARB inventory by using the state total NH3 from MOVES and allocating it at the county level based on
CO. Refueling emissions were taken from MOVES for California.

California onroad mobile source emissions were created through a hybrid approach of combining state-
supplied annual emissions with EPA-developed SMOKE-MOVES runs. Through this approach, the
platform was able to reflect the California-developed emissions, while leveraging the more detailed SCCs
and the highly resolved spatial patterns, temporal patterns, and speciation from SMOKE-MOVES. The
basic steps involved in temporally allocating onroad emissions from California based on SMOKE-MOVES
results were:

1)	Run CA using EPA inputs through SMOKE-MOVES to produce hourly emissions hereafter
known as "EPA estimates." These EPA estimates for CA were run in a separate sector called
"onroad_ca."

2)	Calculate ratios between state-supplied emissions and EPA estimates. The ratios were
calculated for each county/SCC/pollutant combination based on the California onroad
emissions inventory. The 2020 California data did not separate off and on-network emissions
or extended idling, and also did not include information for vehicles fueled by E-85, so these
differentiations were obtained using MOVES.

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3)	Create an adjustment factor file (CFPRO) that includes EPA-to-state estimate ratios.

4)	Rerun CA through SMOKE-MOVES using EPA inputs and the new adjustment factor file.

Through this process, adjusted model-ready files were created that sum to annual totals from California,
but have the temporal and spatial patterns reflecting the highly resolved meteorology and SMOKE-
MOVES. After adjusting the emissions, this sector is called "onroad_ca_adj." Note that in emission
summaries, the emissions from the "onroad" and "onroad_ca_adj" sectors were summed and
designated as the emissions for the onroad sector.

2.4 Nonroad Mobile sources (cmv, rail, nonroad)

The nonroad mobile source emission modeling sectors consist of nonroad equipment emissions
(nonroad), locomotive (rail), and commercial marine CMV emissions (cmv_clc2 and cmv_c3).

2.4.1 Category 1, Category 2 Commercial Marine Vessels (cmv_clc2)

The cmv_clc2 sector contains Category 1 and 2 (C1C2) CMV emissions. Category 1 and 2 vessels use
diesel fuel. All emissions in this sector are annual and at county-SCC resolution; however, in the
emissions modeling platform they are provided at the sub-county level (i.e., port shape ids) and by SCC
and emission type (e.g., hoteling, maneuvering). For the 2021 emissions modeling platform EPA
expanded the list of SCCs. SCCs are now further resolved based on ship type than they were for the 2020
NEI. A list of SCCs for the C1C2 sector can be seen in Table 2-17 For more information on the 2022 CMV
C1C2 emissions development, see the supplemental documentation (ERG, 2024b). C1C2 emissions that
occur outside of state waters are not assigned to states. For this modeling platform, all CMV emissions in
the cmv_clc2 sector are treated as hourly gridded point sources with stack parameters that should
result in them being placed in layer 1.

Sulfur dioxide (S02) emissions reflect rules that reduced sulfur emissions for CMV that took effect in the
year 2015. The cmv_clc2 inventory sector contains small to medium-size engine CMV emissions.
Category 1 and Category 2 marine diesel engines typically range in size from about 700 to 11,000 hp.
These engines are used to provide propulsion power on many kinds of vessels including tugboats,
towboats, supply vessels, fishing vessels, and other commercial vessels in and around ports. They are
also used as stand-alone generators for auxiliary electrical power on many types of vessels. Category 1
represents engines up to 7 liters per cylinder displacement. Category 2 includes engines from 7 to 30
liters per cylinder.

The cmv_clc2 inventory sector contains sources that traverse state and federal waters along with
emissions from surrounding areas of Canada, Mexico, and international waters. The cmv_clc2 sources
are modeled as point sources but using plume rise parameters that cause the emissions to be released in
the ground layer of the air quality model.

The cmv_clc2 sources within state waters are identified in the inventory with the Federal Information
Processing Standard (FIPS) county code for the state and county in which the vessel is registered. The
cmv_clc2 sources that operate outside of state waters but within the Emissions Control Area (ECA) are
encoded with a state FIPS code of 85. The ECA areas include parts of the Gulf of Mexico, and parts of the
Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The cmv_clc2 sources are categorized as operating either in-port or
underway and as main and auxiliary engines are encoded using the SCCs listed in Table 2-17. Level 1 and

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Level 2 descriptions for all of the entries are "Mobile Sources", and "Marine Vessels, Commercial",
respectively.

Table 2-17. SCCs for the cmv clc2 sector

see

Level 3 Description

Level 4 Description

2280201113

D

esel Barge

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280202113

D

esel Offshore support

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280203113

D

esel Bulk Carrier

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280204113

D

esel Commercial Fishing

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280205113

D

esel Container Ship

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280206113

D

esel Ferry

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280207113

D

esel General Cargo

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280208113

D

esel Government

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280209113

D

esel Miscellaneous

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280210113

D

esel RollOn RollOff

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280211113

D

eselTanker

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280212113

D

esel Tour Boat

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280213113

D

esel Tug

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280214113

D

esel Refrigerated

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280215113

D

esel Cruise

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280216113

D

esel Passenger Other

C1C2 Port Emissions

Main Engine

2280201114

D

esel Barge

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280202114

D

esel Offshore support

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280203114

D

esel Bulk Carrier

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280204114

D

esel Commercial Fishing

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280205114

D

esel Container Ship

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280206114

D

esel Ferry

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280207114

D

esel General Cargo

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280208114

D

esel Government

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280209114

D

esel Miscellaneous

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280210114

D

esel RollOn RollOff

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280211114

D

eselTanker

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280212114

D

esel Tour Boat

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280213114

D

esel Tug

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280214114

D

esel Refrigerated

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280215114

D

esel Cruise

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280216114

D

esel Passenger Other

C1C2 Port Emissions

Auxil

ary Engine

2280201123

D

esel Barge

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280202123

D

esel Offshore support

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280203123

D

esel Bulk Carrier

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280204123

D

esel Commercial Fishing

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280205123

D

esel Container Ship

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280206123

D

esel Ferry

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280207123

D

esel General Cargo

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

57


-------
see

Level 3 Description

Level 4 Description

2280208123

D

esel Government

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280209123

D

esel Miscellaneous

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280210123

D

esel RollOn RollOff

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280211123

D

eselTanker

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280212123

D

esel Tour Boat

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280213123

D

esel Tug

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280214123

D

esel Refrigerated

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280215123

D

esel Cruise

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280216123

D

esel Passenger Other

C1C2 Underway emissions

Main Engine

2280201124

D

esel Barge

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280202124

D

esel Offshore support

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280203124

D

esel Bulk Carrier

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280204124

D

esel Commercial Fishing

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280205124

D

esel Container Ship

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280206124

D

esel Ferry

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280207124

D

esel General Cargo

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280208124

D

esel Government

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280209124

D

esel Miscellaneous

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280210124

D

esel RollOn RollOff

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280211124

D

eselTanker

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280212124

D

esel Tour Boat

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280213124

D

esel Tug

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280214124

D

esel Refrigerated

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280215124

D

esel Cruise

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

2280216124

D

esel Passenger Other

C1C2 Underway emissions

Auxiliary Engine

Category 1 and 2 CMV emissions were developed for the 2022 platform and were not based on 2020 NEI
although the methods used to develop the emissions were similar. The emissions were developed based
on signals from Automated Identification System (AIS) transmitters. AIS is a tracking system used by
vessels to enhance navigation and avoid collision with other AIS transmitting vessels. The USEPA Office
of Transportation and Air Quality received AIS data from the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) to quantify all ship
activity which occurred between January 1 and December 31, 2022. During the acquisition of the 2022
AIS data from the U.S. Coast Guard, EPA was made aware of a data quality issue that started in late
March and continued through late June of 2022. To address this, emissions were substituted in from the

2021	CMV C1C2 inventory for this period. To ensure coverage for all of the areas needed by the NEI, the
requested and provided AIS data extend beyond 200 nautical miles from the U.S. coast. The area
covered by the AIS Area, 2022 Modeling Platform Geographical Extent, and U.S. ECA is shown in Figure
2-4 (a). This boundary is roughly equivalent to the border of the U.S Exclusive Economic Zone and the
North American ECA, although some non-ECA activity are captured as well. Two types of AIS data were
received: satellite (S-AIS) and terrestrial (T-AIS). The distribution of terrestrial and satellite AIS data for
the 2022 emissions modeling platform are shown in Figure 2-4 (b). An additional enhancement for the

2022	C1C2 CMV inventory was the development and application of a mask that was applied to remove
any emissions over land due to stray AIS signals.

58


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Figure 2-4. NEI Commercial Marine Vessel Boundaries and Automatic Identification System Request

Boxes for the 2022 Emissions Modeling Platform

a) Entire AIS Area (Transparent Gray), 2022 Modeling Platform Geographical Extent (Black Outline),

and U.S. ECA (White Outline)

b) Distribution of Terrestrial and Satellite AIS Data

Num. Rows in S-AIS 2022

< 10,000,000

100,00,001 - 50,000,000
50,000,001 - 100,000,000
100,000,001 - 200,000,000
> 200,000,000

Num. Rows in T-AIS 2022

< 10,000,000

10,000,001 - 50,000,000
50,000,001 - 250,000,000
250,000,001 - 500,000,000
> 500,000,000

59


-------
The AIS data were compiled into five-minute intervals by the USCG, providing a reasonably refined
assessment of a vessel's movement. For example, using a five-minute average, a vessel traveling at 25
knots would be captured every two nautical miles that the vessel travels. For slower moving vessels, the
distance between transmissions would be less. The ability to track vessel movements through AIS data
and link them to attribute data, has allowed for the development of an inventory of very accurate
emission estimates. These AIS data were used to define the locations of individual vessel movements,
estimate hours of operation, and quantify propulsion engine loads. The compiled AIS data also included
the vessel's International Marine Organization (IMO) number and Maritime Mobile Service Identifier
(MMSI); which allowed each vessel to be matched to their characteristics obtained from the Clarksons
ship registry (Clarksons, 2021).

The engine bore and stroke data were used to calculate cylinder volume. Any vessel that had a
calculated cylinder volume greater than 30 liters was incorporated into the USEPA's new Category 3
Commercial Marine Vessel (C3CMV) model. The remaining records were assumed to represent Category
1 and 2 (C1C2) or non-ship activity. The C1C2 AIS data were quality assured including the removal of
duplicate messages, signals from pleasure craft, and signals that were not from CMV vessels (e.g., buoys,
helicopters, and vessels that are not self-propelled).

The emissions were calculated for each time interval between consecutive AIS messages for each vessel
and allocated to the location of the message following to the interval. Emissions were calculated
according to Equation 2-1.

g

Emissionsinterval = Time (hr)interval x Power(kW) x	x LLAF Equation 2-l

Power was calculated for the propulsive (main), auxiliary, and auxiliary boiler engines for each interval
and emission factor (EF) reflects the assigned emission factors for each engine, as described below. LLAF
represents the low load adjustment factor, a unitless factor which reflects increasing propulsive
emissions during low load operations. Time indicates the activity duration time between consecutive
intervals.

Next, vessels were identified to determine their vessel type, and thus their vessel group, power rating,
and engine tier information which are required for the emissions calculations. See the 2022 CI C2 CMV
development documentation for more details on this process. Following the identification, 236 different
vessel types were matched to the C1C2 vessels. Vessel attribute data were not available for all these
vessel types, so the vessel types were aggregated into 13 different vessel groups for which surrogate
data were available as shown in Table 2-18. 19,322 vessels were directly identified by their ship and
cargo number. The remaining group of miscellaneous ships represent 1.6 percent of the AIS vessels
(excluding recreational vessels) for which a specific vessel type could not be assigned.

60


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Table 2-18. Vessel groups in the cmv_clc2 sector



2017 Entire

2020 Entire







Area Ship

Area Ship

2021 Entire

2022 Entire

Vessel Group

Count

Count

Area Ship Count

Area Ship Count

Bulk Carrier

45

44

46

47

Commercial Fishing

1,686

4,262

5,826

5,859

Container Ship

8

16

11

15

Ferry Excursion

482

724

849

997

General Cargo

1,555

3,451

3,190

3,122

Government

1,368

1,192

1,179

1,216

Miscellaneous

1,810

269

291

300

Offshore support

1,203

1,337

1,416

1,377

Pilot

NA

17

15

15

Reefer

15

13

12

28

Ro Ro

27

218

219

212

Tanker

144

555

591

677

Tug

4,203

5,661

5,299

5,289

Work Boat

83

151

162

168

Total in Inventory:

12,629

17,910

19,106

19,322

As shown in Equation 2-1, power is an important component of the emissions computation. Vessel-
specific installed propulsive power ratings and service speeds were pulled from Clarksons ship registry
and adopted from the Global Fishing Watch (GFW) dataset when available. However, there is limited
vessel specific attribute data for most of the C1C2 fleet. This necessitated the use of surrogate engine
power and load factors, which were computed for each vessel group. In addition to the power required
by propulsive engines, power needs for auxiliary engines were also computed for each vessel group.
Emissions from main and auxiliary engines are inventoried with different SCCs as shown in Table 2-17.

The final components of the emissions computation equation are the emission factors and the low load
adjustment factor. The emission factors used in this inventory take into consideration the EPA's marine
vessel fuel regulations as well as exhaust standards that are based on the year that the vessel was
manufactured to determine the appropriate regulatory tier. Emission factors in g/kWhr by tier for NOx,
PMio, PM2.5, CO, CO2, SO2 and VOC were developed using Tables 3-7 through 3-10 in USEPA's (2008)
Regulatory Impact Analysis on engines less than 30 liters per cylinder. To compile these emissions
factors, population-weighted average emission factors were calculated per tier based on C1C2
population distributions grouped by engine displacement. Boiler emission factors were obtained from an
earlier Swedish Environmental Protection Agency study (Swedish EPA, 2004). If the year of manufacture
was unknown then it was assumed that the vessel was Tier 0, such that actual emissions may be less
than those estimated in this inventory. Without more specific data, the magnitude of this emissions
difference cannot be estimated.

Propulsive emissions from low-load operations were adjusted to account for elevated emission rates
associated with activities outside the engines' optimal operating range. The emission factor adjustments
were applied by load and pollutant, based on the data compiled for the Port Everglades 2015 Emission

61


-------
Inventory.6 Hazardous air pollutants and ammonia were added to the inventory according to
multiplicative factors applied either to VOC or PM2.5.

The stack parameters used for cmv_clc2 are a stack height of 1 ft, stack diameter of 1 ft, stack
temperature of 70°F, and a stack velocity of 0.1 ft/s. These parameters force emissions into layer 1.

For more information on the emission computations for 2022, see the supporting documentation for the
development of the 2022 C1C2 CMV emissions (ERG, 2024). The cmv_clc2 emissions were aggregated
to total hourly values in each grid cell and run through SMOKE as point sources. SMOKE requires an
annual inventory file to go along with the hourly data and this file was generated for 2022.

2.4.2 Category 3 Commercial Marine Vessels (cmv_c3)

The cmv_c3 sector contains large engine CMV emissions. Category 3 (C3) marine diesel engines at or
above 30 liters per cylinder. Typically, these are the largest CMV engines and are rated at 3,000 to
100,000 hp. C3 engines are typically used for propulsion on ocean-going vessels including container
ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers, and cruise ships. Emissions control technologies for C3 CMV sources are
limited due to the nature of the residual fuel used by these vessels.7 The cmv_c3 sector contains
sources that traverse state and federal waters; along with sources in waters not covered by the NEI in
surrounding areas of Canada, Mexico, and international waters.

The cmv_c3 sources that operate outside of state waters but within the federal Emissions Control Area
(ECA) are encoded with a FIPS state code of 85, with the "county code" digits representing broad regions
such as the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Pacific. The ECA areas include parts of the Gulf of Mexico, and
parts of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. CMV C3 sources around Puerto Rico, Hawaii and Alaska, which
are outside the ECA areas, are included in the inventory but are in separate files from the emissions
around the continental United States (CONUS). The cmv_c3 sources in the inventory are categorized as
operating either in-port or underway and are encoded using the SCCs listed in Table 2-19 and distinguish
between diesel and residual fuel, in port areas versus underway, and main and auxiliary engines. The
Level 1 and Level 2 descriptions for each of the SCCs are "Mobile Sources" and "Marine Vessels,
Commercial", respectively.

Table 2-19. SCCs for cmv c3 sector

see

Level 3 Description

Level 4 Description

2280201313

Diesel Barge

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280202313

Diesel Offshore support

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280203313

Diesel Bulk Carrier

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280204313

Diesel Commercial Fishing

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280205313

Diesel Container Ship

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280206313

Diesel Ferry

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280207313

Diesel General Cargo

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

6	USEPA. EPA and Port Everglades Partnership: Emission Inventories and Reduction Strategies. US Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, June 2018. https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZvPDF.cgi?Dockev=P100UKV8.pdf.

7	https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/regulations-emissions-marine-vessels.

62


-------
see

Level 3 Description

Level 4 Description

2280208313

Diesel Government

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280209313

Diesel Miscellaneous

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280210313

Diesel RollOn RollOff

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280211313

Diesel Tanker

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280212313

Diesel Tour Boat

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280213313

Diesel Tug

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280214313

Diesel Refrigerated

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280215313

Diesel Cruise

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280216313

Diesel Passenger Other

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280201314

Diesel Barge

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280202314

Diesel Offshore support

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280203314

Diesel Bulk Carrier

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280204314

Diesel Commercial Fishing

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280205314

Diesel Container Ship

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280206314

Diesel Ferry

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280207314

Diesel General Cargo

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280208314

Diesel Government

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280209314

Diesel Miscellaneous

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280210314

Diesel RollOn RollOff

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280211314

Diesel Tanker

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280212314

Diesel Tour Boat

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280213314

Diesel Tug

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280214314

Diesel Refrigerated

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280215314

Diesel Cruise

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280216314

Diesel Passenger Other

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280201323

Diesel Barge

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280202323

Diesel Offshore support

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280203323

Diesel Bulk Carrier

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280204323

Diesel Commercial Fishing

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280205323

Diesel Container Ship

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280206323

Diesel Ferry

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280207323

Diesel General Cargo

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280208323

Diesel Government

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280209323

Diesel Miscellaneous

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280210323

Diesel RollOn RollOff

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280211323

Diesel Tanker

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280212323

Diesel Tour Boat

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280213323

Diesel Tug

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280214323

Diesel Refrigerated

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

63


-------
see

Level 3 Description

Level 4 Description

2280215323

Diesel Cruise

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280216323

Diesel Passenger Other

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280201324

Diesel Barge

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280202324

Diesel Offshore support

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280203324

Diesel Bulk Carrier

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280204324

Diesel Commercial Fishing

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280205324

Diesel Container Ship

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280206324

Diesel Ferry

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280207324

Diesel General Cargo

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280208324

Diesel Government

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280209324

Diesel Miscellaneous

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280210324

Diesel RollOn RollOff

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280211324

Diesel Tanker

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280212324

Diesel Tour Boat

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280213324

Diesel Tug

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280214324

Diesel Refrigerated

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280215324

Diesel Cruise

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280216324

Diesel Passenger Other

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280301313

Residual Barge

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280302313

Residual Offshore support

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280303313

Residual Bulk Carrier

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280304313

Residual Commercial Fishing

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280305313

Residual Container Ship

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280306313

Residual Ferry

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280307313

Residual General Cargo

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280308313

Residual Government

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280309313

Residual Miscellaneous

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280310313

Residual RollOn RollOff

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280311313

Residual Tanker

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280312313

Residual Tour Boat

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280313313

Residual Tug

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280314313

Residual Refrigerated

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280315313

Residual Cruise

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280316313

Residual Passenger Other

C3 Port Emissions: Main Engine

2280301314

Residual Barge

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280302314

Residual Offshore support

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280303314

Residual Bulk Carrier

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280304314

Residual Commercial Fishing

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280305314

Residual Container Ship

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

64


-------
see

Level 3 Description

Level 4 Description

2280306314

Residual Ferry

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280307314

Residual General Cargo

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280308314

Residual Government

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280309314

Residual Miscellaneous

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280310314

Residual RollOn RollOff

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280311314

Residual Tanker

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280312314

Residual Tour Boat

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280313314

Residual Tug

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280314314

Residual Refrigerated

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280315314

Residual Cruise

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280316314

Residual Passenger Other

C3 Port Emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280301323

Residual Barge

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280302323

Residual Offshore support

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280303323

Residual Bulk Carrier

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280304323

Residual Commercial Fishing

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280305323

Residual Container Ship

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280306323

Residual Ferry

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280307323

Residual General Cargo

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280308323

Residual Government

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280309323

Residual Miscellaneous

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280310323

Residual RollOn RollOff

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280311323

Residual Tanker

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280312323

Residual Tour Boat

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280313323

Residual Tug

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280314323

Residual Refrigerated

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280315323

Residual Cruise

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280316323

Residual Passenger Other

C3 Underway emissions: Main Engine

2280301324

Residual Barge

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280302324

Residual Offshore support

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280303324

Residual Bulk Carrier

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280304324

Residual Commercial Fishing

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280305324

Residual Container Ship

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280306324

Residual Ferry

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280307324

Residual General Cargo

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280308324

Residual Government

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280309324

Residual Miscellaneous

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280310324

Residual RollOn RollOff

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280311324

Residual Tanker

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280312324

Residual Tour Boat

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

65


-------
see

Level 3 Description

Level 4 Description

2280313324

Residual Tug

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280314324

Residual Refrigerated

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280315324

Residual Cruise

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

2280316324

Residual Passenger Other

C3 Underway emissions: Auxiliary Engine

The EPA received Automated Identification System (AIS) data from United States Coast Guard (USCG) to
quantify all ship activity which occurred between January 1 and December 31, 2022. The International
Maritime Organization's (IMO's) International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) requires
AIS to be fitted aboard all international voyaging ships with gross tonnage of 300 or more, and all
passenger ships regardless of size.8 In addition, the USCG has mandated that all commercial marine
vessels continuously transmit AIS signals while transiting U.S. navigable waters. As the vast majority of
C3 vessels meet these requirements, any omitted from the inventory due to lack of AIS adoption are
deemed to have a negligible impact on national C3 emissions estimates. The activity data incorporated
into this inventory reflect ship operations within 200 nautical miles of the official U.S. baseline and
beyond. Activity data within the border of the U.S Exclusive Economic Zone and the North American ECA
are included as well as some activity data outside of the ECA.

The 2022 CMV emissions modeling platform data were computed based on the AIS data from the USGS
for the year of 2022. This process is described in more detail in the Category 3 Commercial Marine
Vessel 2022 Emissions Inventory (EPA, 2024a). During the acquisition of the 2022 AIS data from the U.S.
Coast Guard, EPA was made aware of a data quality issue that started in late March and continued
through late June of 2022. To address this, emissions were substituted in from the 2021 CMV C3
inventory for this period. The AIS data were coupled with ship registry data that contained engine
parameters, vessel power parameters, and other factors such as tonnage and year of manufacture
which helped to separate the C3 vessels from the C1C2 vessels. Where specific ship parameters were
not available, they were gap-filled. The types of vessels that remain in the C3 data set include bulk
carrier, chemical tanker, liquified gas tanker, oil tanker, other tanker, container ship, cruise, ferry,
general cargo, fishing, refrigerated vessel, roll-on/roll-off, tug, and yacht.

Prior to use, the AIS data were reviewed - data deemed to be erroneous were removed, and data found
to be at intervals greater than 5 minutes were interpolated to ensure that each ship had data every five
minutes. The five-minute average data provide a reasonably refined assessment of a vessel's movement.
For example, using a five-minute average, a vessel traveling at 25 knots would be captured every two
nautical miles that the vessel travels. For slower moving vessels, the distance between transmissions
would be less. An additional enhancement for the 2022 C3 CMV inventory was the development and
application of a mask that was applied to remove any emissions over land due to stray AIS signals and
interpolated values.

8 International Maritime Organization (IMO) Resolution MSC.99(73) adopted December 12th. 2000 and entered into force
July 1st, 2002; as amended by SOLAS Resolution CONF.5/32 adopted December 13th, 2002.

66


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The emissions were calculated for each C3 vessel in the dataset for each 5-minute time range and
allocated to the location of the message following to the interval. Emissions were calculated according
to Equation 2-2.

g

Emissionsinterval = Time (hr)interval x Power(kW) x EFtj^) x LLAF Equation 2-2

Power is calculated for the propulsive (main), auxiliary, and auxiliary boiler engines for each interval and
emission factor (EF) reflects the assigned emission factors for each engine, as described below. LLAF
represents the low load adjustment factor, a unitless factor which reflects increasing propulsive
emissions during low load operations. Time indicates the activity duration time between consecutive
intervals.

Emissions were computed according to a computed power need (kW) multiplied by the time (hr) and by
an engine-specific emission factor (g/kWh) and finally by a low load adjustment factor that reflects
increasing propulsive emissions during low load operations.

The resulting emissions were available at 5-minute intervals. Code was developed to aggregate these
emissions to modeling grid cells and up to hourly levels so that the emissions data could be input to
SMOKE for emissions modeling with SMOKE. Within SMOKE, the data were speciated into the pollutants
needed by the air quality model,9 but since the data were already in the form of point sources at the
center of each grid cell, and they were already hourly, no other processing was needed within SMOKE.
SMOKE requires an annual inventory file to go along with the hourly data, so this annual file was
generated for 2022.

On January 1st, 2015, the ECA initiated a fuel sulfur standard which regulated large marine vessels to use
fuel with 1,000 ppm sulfur or less. These standards are reflected in the cmv_c3 inventories.

The resulting point emissions centered on each grid cell were converted to an annual point 2010 flat file
format (FF10). A set of standard stack parameters were assigned to each release point in the cmv_c3
inventory. The assigned stack height was 65.62 ft, the stack diameter was 2.625 ft, the stack
temperature was 539.6 °F, and the velocity was 82.02 ft/s. Emissions were computed for each grid cell
needed for modeling.

2.4.3 Railway Locomotives (rail)

The rail sector includes all locomotives in the NEI nonpoint data category including line haul locomotives
on Class 1, 2, and 3 railroads along with emissions from commuter rail lines and Amtrak. The rail sector
excludes railway maintenance locomotives and point source yard locomotives. Railway maintenance
emissions are included in the nonroad sector. The point source yard locomotives are included in the
ptnonipm sector. The development of the 2022 rail inventory is summarized here but is described in
more detail in the 2022 National Emissions Inventory Locomotive Methodology documentation (ERG,
2024c).

International Maritime Organization (IMO) Resolution MSC.99(73).

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The rail sector emissions for the 2022 emissions modeling platform are based on the 2020 NEI.

Projection factors were applied based on fuel use data for Class I locomotives and rail yards. For Class
ll/lll locomotives, activity data for the years 2012, 2017, 2020, and 2022 from the U.S. Energy
Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook was examined. Based on these data, the fuel data
used in 2020 was increased across the rail system by 11.6% for the 2022 effort. The 2020 NEI is based on
methods developed during the development of the 2017 NEI rail inventory by the Lake Michigan Air
Directors Consortium (LADCO) and the State of Illinois with support from various other states. Class I
railroad emissions are based on confidential link-level line-haul activity GIS data layer maintained by the
Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). In addition, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) provided
preliminary 2023 national emission tier fleet mix information for Class I railroads. Class II and III railroad
emissions are based on a comprehensive nationwide GIS database of locations where short line and
regional railroads operate. Passenger rail (Amtrak) emissions follow a similar procedure as Class II and III,
except using a database of Amtrak rail lines. Yard locomotive emissions are based on a combination of
yard data provided by individual rail companies, and by using Google Earth and other tools to identify
rail yard locations for rail companies which did not provide yard data. Information on specific yards
were combined with fuel use data and emission factors to create an emissions inventory for rail yards.
Pollutant-specific factors were applied on top of the activity-based changes for the Class I rail. The
inventory SCCs are shown in Table 2-20. More detailed information on the development of the 2022
emission modeling platform rail inventory is available in the 2020 NEI TSD and in the Rail 2020 National
Emissions Inventory Supplementary Document on the 2020 NEI supporting data FTP site.

Table 2-20. SCCs for the Rail Sector

see

Sector

Description: Mobile Sources prefix for all

2285002006

Rail

Railroad Equipment

Diesel; Line Haul Locomotives: Class 1 Operations

2285002007

Rail

Railroad Equipment

Diesel; Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations

2285002008

Rail

Railroad Equipment

Diesel; Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak)

2285002009

Rail

Railroad Equipment

Diesel; Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines

2285002010

Rail

Railroad Equipment

Diesel; Yard Locomotives (nonpoint)

28500201

Rail

Railroad Equipment

Diesel; Yard Locomotives (point)

Class I Line-haul Methodology

For the 2020 inventory, the Class I railroads granted EPA permission to use the confidential link-level line
haul activity geographic information system (GIS) data layer maintained and updated annually by the
Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). At the time of inventory development, 2019 million gross ton
(MGT) data was the most recent and complete data available. A map of the Class I railroad lines is shown
in Figure 2-5. The dataset contains three columns indicating railroad ownership and nine columns
indicating trackage rights for each rail segment. While most rail links have a single owner, some links
have up to six different Class 1 railroad companies operating on it. To prepare the FRA data for use in
the Class I line haul calculations, all segments associated with a railroad company were extracted to
identify the full network for each company. This involved iterating through each of those twelve columns
to identify all segments within each railroad company's network. This process was conducted seven

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times, one for each Class i railroad company. This resulted in a complete inventory of rail links trafficked
by each Class I railroads with a record for each link/railroad company combination.

Figure 2-5. 2019 Class I Railroad Line Haul Activity

EPA collected 2020 and 2022 Class I line haul fuel use data from the most recent R-l submittals from the
Surface Transportation Board.10 Consistent with previous inventory efforts, EPA summed line haul and
work train fuel usage, Table 2-21. Projection factors were developed based on the increased fuel use in
2022 and applied to the 2020 emissions.

Table 2-21. 2020 and 2022 R-l Reported Locomotive Fuel Use for Class I Railroads

Class 1 Railroad

2020 Line Haul Fuel Use (gal)*

2022 Line Haul Fuel Use (gal)*

BNSF

1,137,598,007

1,175,184,806

Canadian National (CN)

96,337,392

107,012,486

Canadian Pacific (CPRS)

57,664,407

64,138,533

CSX Transportation (CSXT)

327,917,859

356,002,171

Kansas City Southern (KCS)

55,763,748

64,185,774

Norfolk Southern (NS)

342,470,779

354,139,306

10 Surface Transportation Board. Available at https://www.stb.gov/reports-data/economic-data/annual-report-financial-data/
Retrieved 22 June 2021.

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Class 1 Railroad

2020 Line Haul Fuel Use (gal)*

2022 Line Haul Fuel Use (gal)*

Union Pacific (UP)

773,476,896

839,457,293

* Includes work train fuel usage

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) provided national Class I locomotive tier fleet mix
information that reflects engine turnover in the nation. Given the impact of the pandemic in 2020, AAR
provided a fleet mix that reflected active locomotives and excluded those that were held in storage. A
locomotive's Tier level determines its allowable emission rates based on the year when it was built
and/or re-manufactured. More accurate emission factors for each pollutant were calculated based on
the percentage of the operating Class I line haul locomotives for each USEPA Tier-level category.

Class II and III Methodology

There are approximately 630 Class II and III Railroads operating in the United States, most of which are
members of the American Short Line and Regional Railroad Association (ASLRRA). Data on Class II and III
locomotive operations is publicly available from Bureau of Transportation Statistics' National
Transportation Atlas Database (NTAD), along with related data including reporting mark, railroad name,
route miles owned or operated, and total route miles of links.

Class II and III railroads are widely dispersed across the country (see Figure 2-6), often utilizing older,
higher emitting locomotives than their Class I counterparts. AAR provided a national line-haul tier fleet
mix profile for 2020 which reflects the trend toward older engines in this sector as shown in Table 2-22.
These data continue to be used for the 2022 platform. The national fleet mix data was then used to
calculate weighted average in-use emissions factors for the locomotives operated by the Class II and III
railroads. Note that to be consistent with the 2020 inventory, the unweighted emission factors were the
same as the Class I line haul due to the conservative use of the EPA's large locomotive conversion factor
of 20.8 bhp-hr/gal. Emission factors for PM2.5, S02, NH3, VOC, and GHGs were calculated in the same
manner as those used for Class I line-haul inventory described above.

Table 2-22. 2020 Class ll/lll Line Haul Fleet by Tier Level

Tier

2020 Class ll/lll Locomotive Count

Percent of Total Fleet

0

1,664

48%

1

31

1%

2

169

5%

3

160

5%

4

64

2%

Not
Classified

1,359

39%

Total

3,447

100%

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Figure 2-6. Class li and ill Railroads in the United States

Sarr* Fodtial SstawS Admn«ir»l«>n Juw2S18

For the 2022 inventory, EPA considered activity data for the years 2012, 2017, 2020, and 2022 from the
U.S. Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook, shown in Table 2-23 below.11 Based on
these data, the fuel data used in 2020 was increased across the rail system by 11.6% for the 2022 effort.

Table 2-23. Rail Freight Values by year (quadrillion BTU)

2012

2017

2020

2022

0.43

0.52

0.44

0.48

Commuter Rail Methodology

11 USEIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2021. Accessed 3 Apr 2024. Available at

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=7-AE02021&cases=ref2021&sourcekev=0

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Commuter rail emissions were calculated in the same way as the Class II and HI railroads. The primary
difference is that the fuel use estimates for 2020 and 2022 were based on data collected by the Federal
Transit Administration (FTA) for the National Transit Database and projection factors calculated. These
fuel use estimates were replaced with reported fuel use statistics for MBTA (Massachusetts) and Metra
(Illinois). The commuter railroads were separated from the Class II and III railroads so that the
appropriate SCC codes could be entered into the emissions calculation sheet.

Intercity Passenger Methodology (Amtrak)

The calculation methodology mimics that used for the Class II and III and commuter railroads with a few
modifications. Since link-level activity data for Amtrak was unavailable, the default assumption was
made to evenly distribute Amtrak's 2020 reported fuel use across all of it diesel-powered route-miles
shown in Figure 2-7.

Figure 2-7. Amtrak National Rail Network

For 2022 platform, the 2020 fuel use and emissions were adjusted down based on the fuel use reported
in Amtrak's FY22 AMTRAK Sustainability Report as shown in Figure 2-8. The adjustment was applied
uniformly, so the spatial representation of the emissions did not change.

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Figure 2-8 Amtrak Diesel Fuel Use 2020-2022

DIESEL FUEL USE

FY22 GojI

Progmt throughout FY22

ACHIEVED

- 59.3 million gallons

(Milltont
of gjllo«)

Upon receipt of state-provided comments, two adjustments were made to Amtrak emissions. First,
Delaware verified that all Amtrak passenger service in/through the state utilize electric locomotives only,
so fuel usage and emissions for Delaware SCC 2285002008 were removed. Second, Connecticut
confirmed that AMTRAK trains operating on electrified lines do not have diesel emissions. The state
provided emissions estimates which were used to replace the previously calculated emissions.

Other Data Sources

The 2020 NEI locomotives sector includes data from SLT agency-provided emissions data, and an EPA
dataset of locomotive emissions. The following agencies also submitted emissions to locomotive SCCs:
Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation; California; Connecticut; District of Columbia;
Maricopa County, AZ; Minnesota; North Carolina; Texas; Virginia; Washington; and Washoe County, NV.

2.4.4 Nonroad Mobile Equipment (nonroad)

The mobile nonroad equipment sector includes all mobile source emissions that do not operate on
roads, excluding commercial marine vehicles, railways, and aircraft. Types of nonroad equipment include
recreational vehicles, pleasure craft, and construction, agricultural, mining, and lawn and garden
equipment. Nonroad equipment emissions for 2022 were computed by running MOVES4 which
incorporates the NONROAD model. MOVES3 incorporated updated nonroad engine population growth
rates, nonroad Tier 4 engine emission rates, and sulfur levels of nonroad diesel fuels. The only change
made for nonroad from MOVES3 to MOVES4 was a change to fuel properties. Additionally, MOVES4 was
run using 2022 meteorological data. MOVES provides a complete set of HAPs and incorporates updated
nonroad emission factors for HAPs. MOVES4 was used for all states other than California, which uses
their own model. California nonroad emissions were provided by the California Air Resources Board
(CARB) for the 2020 NEI, as well as 2023. For the 2022 emissions modeling platform CARB nonroad
emissions were interpolated between 2020 and 2023. CARB emissions were used in California for all
pollutants except PAHs and C02, which were taken from MOVES.

MOVES creates a monthly emissions inventory for criteria air pollutants (CAPs) and a full set of HAPs,
plus additional pollutants such as NONHAPTOG and ETHANOL, which are not included in the NEI but are

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used for speciation. MOVES provides estimates of NONHAPTOG along with the speciation profile code
for the NONHAPTOG emission source. This was accomplished by using NHTOG#### as the pollutant code
in the flat file 2010 (FF10) inventory file that can be read into SMOKE, where #### is a speciation profile
code. For California, NHTOG####-VOC and HAP-VOC ratios from MOVES-based emissions were applied
to VOC emissions so that VOC emissions can be speciated consistently with other states.

MOVES also provides estimates of PM2.5 by speciation profile code for the PM2.5 emission source,
using PM25_#### as the pollutant code in the FF10 inventory file, where #### is a speciation profile
code. To facilitate calculation of PMC within SMOKE, and to help create emissions summaries, an
additional pollutant representing total PM2.5 called PM25TOTAL was added to the inventory. As with
VOC, PM25_####-PM25TOTAL ratios were calculated and applied to PM2.5 emissions in California so
that PM2.5 emissions in California can be speciated consistently with other states.

MOVES4 outputs emissions data in county-specific databases, and a post-processing script converts the
data into FF10 format. Additional post-processing steps were performed as follows:

•	County-specific FFlOs were combined into a single FF10 file.

•	Emissions were aggregated from the more detailed SCCs modeled in MOVES to the SCCs
modeled in SMOKE. A list of the aggregated SMOKE SCCs is in Appendix A of the 2016vl platform
nonroad specification sheet (NEIC, 2019).

•	To reduce the size of the inventory, HAPs not needed for air quality modeling, such as dioxins
and furans, were removed from the inventory.

•	To reduce the size of the inventory further, all emissions for sources (identified by county/SCC)
for which CAP emissions totaling less than 1*10 10 were removed from the inventory. The MOVES
model attributes a very tiny amount of emissions to sources that are actually zero, for example,
snowmobile emissions in Florida. Removing these sources from the inventory reduces the total
size of the inventory by about 7%.

•	Gas and particulate components of HAPs that come out of MOVES separately, such as
naphthalene, were combined.

•	VOC was renamed VOCJNV so that SMOKE does not speciate both VOC and NONHAPTOG, which
would result in a double count.

•	PM25TOTAL, referenced above, was also created at this stage of the process.

•	Emissions for airport ground support vehicles (SCCs ending in -8005), and oil field equipment
(SCCs ending in -10010), were removed from the inventory at this stage, to prevent a double
count with the airports and np_oilgas sectors, respectively.

•	California emissions from MOVES were deleted and replaced with the CARB-supplied emissions.
National Updates: Agricultural and Construction Equipment Allocation

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The modified MOVES default database for that included the refinements made to construction and
agricultural sectors in the 2016 platform process (movesdb20220105_nrupdates) and state-submitted
inputs in CDBs from the most recent NEI were used to run MOVES-Nonroad to produce emissions for all
states other than California. California-submitted emissions were used. Updated nrsurrogate,
nrstatesurrogate, and nrbaseyearequippopulation tables, along with instructions for utilizing these
tables in MOVES runs, are available for download from EPA's ftp site:
https://gaftp.epa.gov/air/emismod/2016/vl/reports/nonroad/).

Emissions Inside California

California nonroad emissions were provided by CARB for the 2020 NEI and 2023. The 2022 emissions
were interpolated between 2020 and 2023 where pollutants were available in both data sets. All
California nonroad inventories are annual, with monthly temporalization applied in SMOKE. Emissions
for oil field equipment (SCCs ending in -10010) were removed from the California inventory in order to
prevent a double count with the np_oilgas sector. VOC HAPs from California were incorporated into
speciation similarly to VOC HAPs from MOVES elsewhere, e.g., model species BENZ is equal to HAP
emissions for benzene as submitted by CARB. VOC and PM2.5 emissions were allocated to speciation
profiles. Ratios of VOC (PM2.5) by speciation profile to total VOC (PM2.5) were calculated by county and
SCC from the MOVES run in California, and then applied CARB-provided VOC (PM2.5) in the inventory so
that California nonroad emissions could be speciated consistently with the rest of the country.

State Submitted Data

The CDBs used to run MOVES-Nonroad to produce emissions for all states other than California were
consistent with those used to develop the 2020 NEI. The following states submitted CDBs for the 2020
NEI: Arizona - Maricopa Co.; Connecticut; Georgia; Illinois; Indiana; Michigan; Minnesota; Ohio; Oregon;
Texas; Utah; Washington; and Wisconsin.

Following the completion of the MOVES runs, railway maintenance emissions were removed from
specific counties / census areas in Alaska because Alaska DEC specified that this type of activity does not
happen in those areas. Specifically, emissions from SCCs 2285002015, 2285004015, and 2285006015
were removed from the following counties / census areas: 02013, 02016, 02050, 02060, 02063, 02066,
02070, 02100, 02105, 02110, 02130, 02150, 02158, 02164, 02180, 02185, 02188, 02195, 02198, 02220,
02240, 02275, and 02282. Alaska DEC also specified some counties / census areas in which logging and
agricultural emissions do not happen, but the emissions for the specified SCCs were already zero in the
specified areas.

For more information on the development of the nonroad emissions inputs for the 2020 NEI see Section
4 of the 2020 NEI TSD.

2.5 Fires (ptfire-rx, ptfire-wild, ptagfire)

Multiple types of fires are represented in the modeling platform. These include wild and prescribed fires
that are grouped into the ptfire-wild and ptfire-rx sectors, respectively, and agricultural fires that
comprise the ptagfire sector. All ptfire and ptagfire fires are in the United States. Fires outside of the
United States are described in the ptfire_othna sector later in this document.

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2.5.1 Wild and Prescribed Fires (ptfire-rx, ptfire-wild)

Wildfire and prescribed burning emissions are contained in the ptfire-wild and ptfire-rx sectors, respectively. The
ptfire sector has emissions provided at geographic coordinates (point locations) and has daily emissions values.
The ptfire-rx sector excludes agricultural burning and other open burning sources that are included in the ptagfire
and nonpt sectors. The ptfire-rx sector includes a new methodology for calculating pile burn emissions with this
year 2022 emissions modeling platform. Emissions are day-specific and include satellite-derived
latitude/longitude of the fire's origin and other parameters associated with the emissions such as acres burned
and fuel load, which allow estimation of plume rise. The SCCs used for the ptfire-rx and ptfire-wild sources
are shown in Table 2-24. The ptfire-rx and ptfire-wild inventories include separate SCCs for the flaming
and smoldering combustion phases for wildfire and prescribed burns. Note that prescribed grassland
fires or Flint Hills, Kansas has their own SCC (2801500171) in the inventory. Any wild grassland fires
were assigned the standard wildfire SCCs shown in Table 2-24. A new source was added to wildland fires
for the 2022 platform. This new source was Pile Burns with a SCC = 2810005001. Pile burns has been a
burn method used for prescribed burns for many years, but no methodology for estimating the
emissions from these burns had been used in previous NEIs or Emissions Modeling Platforms.

Table 2-24. SCCs included in the ptfire sector for the 2022 platform

SCC

Description

2801500171

Agricultural Field Burning - whole field set on fire; Fallow

2810001001

Forest Wildfires; Smoldering; Residual smoldering only (includes grassland
wildfires)

2810001002

Forest Wildfires; Flaming (includes grassland wildfires)

2810005001

Prescribed burning; pile burns

2811015001

Prescribed Forest Burning; Smoldering; Residual smoldering only

2811015002

Prescribed Forest Burning; Flaming

2811020002

Prescribed Rangeland Burning

Fire Information Data

Inputs to SMARTFIRE2 for 2022 include:

•	The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Hazard Mapping System
(HMS) fire location information

•	Wildland Fire Interagency Geospatial Services (WFIGS) wildland fire perimeter polygons

•	The Incident Status Summary, also known as the "ICS-209", used for reporting specific
information on fire incidents of significance

•	Hazardous fuel treatment reduction polygons for prescribed burns from the Forest Service
Activity Tracking System (FACTS)

•	Fire activity on federal lands from the United States Department of Interior agencies

The Hazard Mapping System (HMS) was developed in 2001 by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite and Data Information

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Service (NESDIS) as a tool to identify fires over North America in an operational environment. The
system utilizes geostationary and polar orbiting environmental satellites. Automated fire detection
algorithms are employed for each of the sensors. When possible, HMS data analysts apply quality
control procedures for the automated fire detections by eliminating those that are deemed to be false
and adding hotspots that the algorithms have not detected via a thorough examination of the satellite
imagery.

The HMS product used for the 2022 inventory consisted of daily comma-delimited files containing fire
detect information including latitude-longitude, satellite used, time detected, and other information.
These detects were processed through a modified, python-based, Satellite Mapping Automated
Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation version 2 SmartFire2/BlueSky Pipeline (SF2/BSP).

Wildland Fire Interagency Geospatial Services (WFIGS) is an online wildfire mapping application designed
for fire managers to access maps of current U.S. fire locations and perimeters. The wildfire perimeter
data are based upon input data from incident intelligence sources from multiple agencies, GPS data, and
infrared (IR) imagery from fixed wing and satellite platforms.

The Incident Status Summary, also known as the "ICS-209" is used for reporting specific information on
significant fire incidents. The ICS-209 report is a critical interagency incident reporting tool giving daily
'snapshots' of the wildland fire management situation and individual incident information which include
fire behavior, size, location, cost, and other information. Data from two tables in the ICS-209 database
were merged and used for the 2022 ptfire inventory: the SIT209_HISTORY_INCIDENT_209_REPORTS
table contained daily 209 data records for large fires, and the SIT209_HISTORY_INCIDENTS table
contained summary data for additional smaller fires.

The US Forest Service (USFS) compiles a variety of fire information every year. Year 2022 data from the
USFS Natural Resource Manager (NRM) Forest Activity Tracking System (FACTS) were acquired and used
for emissions inventory development. This database includes information about activities related to
fire/fuels, silviculture, and invasive species. The FACTS database consists of shapefiles for prescribed
burns that provide acres burned and start and ending time information.

The Department of Interior (DOI) also compiles wildfire and prescribed burn activity on their federal
lands every year. Year 2022 DOI data were acquired from National Fire Plan Operations and Reporting
System (NFPORS) and through direct communication with DOI staff and were used for 2022 platform
development. The DOI fire information provided fire type, acres burned, latitude-longitude, and start
and ending times.

About 30 different states provided fire activity that was used in developing the wildland fire inventory.
Table 2-25 below gives a listing of the type of fire activity data provided by each state that participated.

Table 2-25. Types of State-provided Fire Activity Data

SLT

Wildfire

Prescribed
burns

RX includes pile
burns

Ag burns

Arizona

No

Yes

Yes

No

Arkansas

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

California

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Colorado

No

Yes

Yes

No

Connecticut

Yes

Yes

No

No

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SLT

Wildfire

Prescribed
burns

RX includes pile
burns

Ag burns

Delaware

No

Yes

No

Few

Florida

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Georgia

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Idaho

No

No

No

Yes

Iowa

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Kansas

No

Yes

No

No

Maine

Yes

Few

No

No

Maryland

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Minnesota

No

Yes

No

No

Missouri

No

Yes

No

Yes

Montana

No

Yes

Yes

No

Nevada

No

Yes

Yes

No

New Jersey

Yes

Yes

No

No

New Mexico

Yes

Yes

No

No

Nez Perce Tribe

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

North Carolina

Yes

Yes

No

No

North Dakota

No

Yes

No

No

Oklahoma

No

Yes

No

No

Oregon

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Pennsylvania

Yes

Yes

No

No

South Carolina

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Texas

Yes

Yes

No

No

Utah

No

Yes

Yes

No

Virginia

Yes

Yes

No

No

Washington

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Wyoming

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Fire Emissions Estimation Methodology

The national and S/L/T data mentioned earlier were used to estimate daily wildfire and prescribed burn
emissions from flaming combustion and smoldering combustion phases for the 2022 inventory. Flaming
combustion is more complete combustion than smoldering and is more prevalent with fuels that have a
high surface-to-volume ratio, a low bulk density, and low moisture content. Smoldering combustion
occurs without a flame, is a less complete burn, and produces some pollutants, such as PM2.5, VOCs,
and CO, at higher rates than flaming combustion. Smoldering combustion is more prevalent with fuels
that have low surface-to-volume ratios, high bulk density, and high moisture content. Models
sometimes differentiate between smoldering emissions that are lofted with a smoke plume and those
that remain near the ground (residual emissions), but for the purposes of the inventory the residual
smoldering emissions were allocated to the smoldering SCCs listed in Table 2-24. The lofted smoldering
emissions were assigned to the flaming emissions SCCs in Table 2-24.

Figure 2-9 is a schematic of the data processing stream for the inventory of wildfire and prescribed burn
sources. The ptfire-rx and ptfire-wild inventory sources were estimated using Satellite Mapping
Automated Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation version 2 (SMARTFIRE2) and BlueSky Pipeline.

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SMARTFIRE2 is an algorithm and database system that is within a geographic information system (GIS).
SMARTFIRE2 combines multiple sources of fire information and reconciles them into a unified GIS
database. It reconciles fire data from space-borne sensors and ground-based reports, thus drawing on
the strengths of both data types while avoiding double-counting of fire events. At its core, SMARTFIRE2
is an association engine that links reports covering the same fire in any number of multiple databases. In
this process, ali input information is preserved, and no attempt is made to reconcile conflicting or
potentially contradictory information (for example, the existence of a fire in one database but not
another).

For the 2022 platform, the national and S/L/T fire information was input into SMARTFIRE2 and then
merged and associated based on user-defined weights for each fire information dataset. The output
from SMARTFIRE2 was daily acres burned by fire type, and latitude-longitude coordinates for each fire.
The fire type assignments were made using the fire information datasets. If the only information for a
fire was a satellite detect for fire activity, then the flow described in Figure 2-9 was used to make fire
type assignment by state and by month in conjunction with the default fire type assignments shown in
Figure 2-10.

Figure 2-9. Processing flow for fire emission estimates in the 2022 inventory

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Figure 2-10. Default fire type assignment by state and month where data are only from satellites

2022vl platform HMS default wildfire type months

Apr-Jul

May - Sep

May - Oct

Jun - Aug

Jun- Sep

Jun - Oct

The second system used to estimate emissions is the BlueSky Modeling Pipeline (BSP). The framework
supports the calculation of fuel loading and consumption, and emissions using various models
depending on the available inputs as well as the desired results. The contiguous United States and
Alaska, where Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) fuel loading data are available, were
processed using the modeling chain described in Figure 2-11. The Smoke Emissions Reference
Application (SERA) in the BSP generates all the CAP emission factors for wildland fires used in the 2022
study. SERA factors can vary by phase, fire type, region, fuel type and more pollutants. SERA emission
factors are available here: https://depts.washington.edu/nwfire/sera/index.php. SERA consists of
existing peer-reviewed emission factors (EFs) of 276 known air pollutants. The SERA database enables
the analysis and summaries of existing EFs, and creation of average EFs to be used in decision support
tools for smoke management, including BSP. HAP emission factors were obtained from Urbanski's
(2014) work and applied by region and by fire type.

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Figure 2-11. Blue Sky Modeling Pipeline

The FCCSv4 cross-reference was implemented along with the LANDFIREv2 (at 120 meter resolution) to
provide better fuel bed information for the BlueSky Pipeline (BSP). The LANDFIREv2 was aggregated
from the native resolution and projection to 120 meter using a nearest-neighbor methodology.
Aggregation and reprojection were required for the proper function on BSP.

The Flint Hills grasslands typically have 1 to 2 million acres of prescribed burns each year usually
between late February to early May. Kansas provided county acres burned information for these
prescribed burns for 2022 that cover most of eastern Kansas and 4 additional counties in eastern
Oklahoma. As shown in Figure 2-12. Flint Hills Acreage Burned in 2022below, between February 15-April
30 about 2.1M acres were burned in the Flint Hills. The HMS detects for this time period and for these
counties (about 21000 detects) were used to temporally and spatially allocate these prescribed burns
and the associated estimated emissions. The emissions estimation process is done outside of BSP using
SERA emissions factors except for PM2.5 where a factor of 12.68 g/kg was used based on EPA ORD test
results. The Flint Hills emissions are assigned the SCC 2801500171.

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Figure 2-12. Flint Hills Acreage Burned in 2022

Flint Hills Acreage Burned (February 14-April 30, 2022)

•*£ v ¦

- \

a

"'Mb i

?r. i

r - <,

' ¦ £: 3*"$ • >*? *u"
j*.

V ,',W ' £'

f	»



nr

Countv

Acres Burned

Butler

163,895

Chase

237,442

Chautauqua

57,901

Coffey

85,902

Cowley

88,095

Elk

109,933

Geary

17,035

Greenwood

315,605

Lyon

180,190

Marion

37,483

Morris

96,126

Osage (KS)

83,894

Pottawatomie

59,106

Riley

53,700

Wabaunsee

182,259

Wilson

33,592

Woodson

69,422

Nowata (OK)

43,507

Osage (OK)

156.297

Washington (OK)

30,842

Kay (OK)

10,533





Total

2,112,759

Vao Tang

Bureau of Air, KDHE

In 2022vl arid in the 2020NEI, HMS detects on or near corn and soybean fields in the Midwest were
assumed to be nearby irrigation ditch or other type of ditch burns. These emissions were also estimated
outside of BSP using the assumption of fuels being similar to grasses. These ditch burns were put into
the prescribed burn sector (ptfire-rx) and assigned a Rangeland burning SCC 2811020002.

The final products from this process were annual and daily FFlO-formatted emissions inventories. These
SMOKE-ready inventory files contain both CAPs and HAPs. The BAFM HAP emissions from the inventory
were used directly in modeling and were not overwritten with VOC speciation profiles (i.e., an "integrate
HAP" use case).

For the 2022 platform, pile burn (PB) emissions were estimated using a combination of federal, state,
local, and tribal activity data. This activity data was supplied in the form of daily estimates of area
treated, pile volume, pile dimensions, or mass piled by location, varying by data source. As with the RX
and WF S/L/T data, the pile burn data was imported into SF2 so that it could be reconciled with other
data sources to avoid duplication of activity and emissions. HMS satellite detects that reconciled only
with the location of the PB activity were removed from the BSP workflow as pile burns. The PB activity
data was then directly imported into a calculator script that estimates the amount of biomass consumed
at each location and the resulting emissions. The consumption calculations made are consistent with

82


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those used in the University of Washington pile burn calculator

(https://depts.washington.edu/nwfire/piles/). For activity data where only a treated area is provided a
default fuel loading of 4.5 tons per acre is used based on an analysis of California and Washington
historical pile burn permits. A consumption efficiency of 90% is assumed unless otherwise specified in
the activity data. Emissions factors averaged over pile burn studies in the SERA database were applied to
estimate CAPs from the consumed piled biomass.

The 2022 wildfire season was slightly below average with about 4.6M acres burned in the CONUS. The
2022vl EMP includes emissions from the 4.6M acres of wildfires plus an estimated 13.5M acres in
prescribed burns. The prescribed burns include the 829K acres estimated for the Midwest ditch burns.
It is important to note that using the activity data available mentioned early from federal and state
agencies about 8M prescribed burn acres were reconciled with or without HMS detects. The remaining
5.5M prescribed burn acres were estimated using a default acre burn assumption were not reconciled
with any federal or state agency fire activity data. The default acre burn assumption was applied to any
HMS detects that did not reconcile with any federal or state agency activity data.

2.5.2 Point source Agriculture Fires (ptagfire)

In the NEI, agricultural fires are stored as county-annual emissions and are part of the nonpoint data
category. For this 2022 platform, agricultural fires are modeled as day specific fires derived from
satellite data for the year 2022 in a similar way to the emissions in ptfire.

Daily year-specific agricultural burning emissions are derived from HMS fire activity data, which contains
the date and location of remote-sensed anomalies. The activity is filtered using the 2022 USDA cropland
data layer (CDL). Satellite fire detects over agricultural lands are assumed to be agricultural burns and
assigned a crop type. Detects that are not over agricultural lands are output to a separate file for use in
the ptfire sector. Each detect is assigned an average size of between 40 and 120 acres varying by state.
Grassland/pasture fires were moved to the ptfire sectors for this 2022 modeling platform. Depending on
their origin, grassland fires are in both ptfire-rx and ptfire-wild sectors because both fire types do involve
grassy fuels.

The point source agricultural fire (ptagfire) inventory sector contains daily agricultural burning
emissions. Daily fire activity was derived from the NOAA Hazard Mapping System (HMS) fire activity
data. The agricultural fires sector includes SCCs starting with '28015'. The first three levels of
descriptions for these SCCs are: 1) Fires - Agricultural Field Burning; Miscellaneous Area Sources; 2)
Agriculture Production - Crops - as nonpoint; and 3) Agricultural Field Burning - whole field set on fire.
The SCC 2801500000 does not specify the crop type or burn method, while the more specific SCCs
specify field or orchard crops and, in some cases, the specific crop being grown. The SCCs for this sector
listed are in Table 2-26.

Table 2-26. SCCs included in the ptagfire sector

SCC

Description

2801500000

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops - as nonpoint; Agricultural Field Burning - whole
field set on fire; Unspecified crop type and Burn Method

2801500141

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops - as nonpoint; Agricultural Field Burning - whole
field set on fire; Field Crop is Bean (red): Headfire Burning

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see

Description

2801500150

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops - as nonpoint; Agricultural Field Burning - whole
field set on fire; Field Crop is Corn: Burning Techniques Not Important

2801500160

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops - as nonpoint; Agricultural Field Burning - whole
field set on fire; Field Crop is Cotton: Burning Techniques Not Important

2801500220

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops - as nonpoint; Agricultural Field Burning - whole
field set on fire; Field Crop is Rice: Burning Techniques Not Significant

2801500250

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops - as nonpoint; Agricultural Field Burning - whole
field set on fire; Field Crop is Sugar Cane: Burning Techniques Not Significant

2801500262

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops - as nonpoint; Agricultural Field Burning - whole

field set on fire; Field Crop is Wheat: Backfire Burning

2801500264

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops - as nonpoint; Agricultural Field Burning - whole
field set on fire; DoubleCrop Winter Wheat and Soybeans

2811020002

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Other Combustion - as Event;
Prescribed Rangeland Burning; Flaming

Another feature of the ptagfire database is that the satellite detections for 2022 were filtered out to
exclude areas covered by snow during the winter months. To do this, the daily snow cover fraction per
grid cell was extracted from a 2022 meteorological Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model simulation.
The locations of fire detections were then compared with this daily snow cover file. For any day in which
a grid cell had snow cover, the fire detections in that grid cell on that day were excluded from the
inventory. Due to the inconsistent reporting of fire detections from the Visible Infrared Imaging
Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) platform, any fire detections in the HMS dataset that were flagged as VIIRS or
Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite were excluded. In addition, certain crop types (corn
and soybeans) have been excluded from these specific midwestern states: Iowa, Kansas, Indiana, Illinois,
Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Ohio. The reason for these crop types being excluded is
because states have indicated that these crop types are not burned.

Heat flux for plume rise was calculated using the size and assumed fuel loading of each daily agricultural
fire. This information is needed for a plume rise calculation within a chemical transport modeling
system.

The daily agricultural emissions were converted from a tabular format into the SMOKE-ready daily point
flat file format. The daily emissions were also aggregated into annual values by location and converted
into the annual point flat file format.

For this modeling platform, a SMOKE update allows the use of HAP integration for speciation for PTDAY
inventories. The 2022 agricultural fire inventories include emissions for HAPs, so HAP integration was
used for this study.

2.6 Biogenic Sources (beis)

Biogenic emissions were computed based on the 2022 meteorology data used for the 2022 platform and
were developed using the Biogenic Emission Inventory System version 4 (BEIS4) within CMAQ. BEIS4
creates gridded, hourly, model-species emissions from vegetation and soils. It estimates CO, VOC (most

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notably isoprene, terpene, and sesquiterpene), and NO emissions for the contiguous U.S. and for
portions of Mexico and Canada. In the BEIS4 two-layer canopy model, the layer structure varies with
light intensity and solar zenith angle (Pouliot and Bash, 2015). Both layers include estimates of sunlit
and shaded leaf area based on solar zenith angle and light intensity, direct and diffuse solar radiation,
and leaf temperature (Bash et al., 2015). BEIS4 computes the seasonality of emissions using the 1-meter
soil temperature (SOIT2) instead of the BIOSEASON file, and canopy temperature and radiation
environments are now modeled using the driving meteorological model's (WRF) representation of leaf-
area index (LAI) rather than the estimated LAI values from BELD data alone. See these CMAQ Release
Notes for technical information on BEIS4: https://github.com/USEPA/CMAQ/wiki/CMAQ-Release-
Notes:-Emissions-Updates:-BEIS-Biogenic-Emissions. The variables output from the Meteorology-
Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) that are used to convert WRF outputs to CMAQ inputs are shown
in Table 2-27.

Table 2-27. Meteorological variables required by BEIS4

Variable

Description

LAI

leaf-area index

PRSFC

surface pressure

Q2

mixing ratio at 2 m

RC

convective precipitation per met TSTEP

RGRND

solar rad reaching surface

RN

nonconvective precipitation per met TSTEP

RSTOMI

inverse of bulk stomatal resistance

SLYTP

soil texture type by USDA category

SOIM1

volumetric soil moisture in top cm

SOIT1

soil temperature in top cm

TEMPG

skin temperature at ground

USTAR

cell averaged friction velocity

RADYNI

inverse of aerodynamic resistance

TEMP2

temperature at 2 m

WSAT_PX

soil saturation from (Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model) PX-LSM

The Biogenic Emissions Landcover Database version 6 (BELD6) was used as the input gridded land use
information in generating the biogenic emissions estimates. There are now two different BELD6 datasets
that are input into BEIS4. The gridded landuse and the other is the gridded dry leaf biomass (grams/m2)
values for various vegetation types. The BELD6 includes the following datasets:

•	High resolution tree species and biomass data from Wilson et al. 2013a, and Wilson et al.
2013b for which species names were changed from non-specific common names to scientific
names

•	Tree species biogenic volatile organic carbon (BVOC) emission factors for tree species were
taken from the NCAR Enclosure database (Wiedinmyer, 2001)

o https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S135223100100429Q

•	Agricultural land use from US Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop data layer

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•	Global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 20 category data with
enhanced lakes and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) for vegetation
coverage from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

•	Canadian BELD land use, updates to Version 4 of the Biogenic Emissions Landuse Database
(BELD4) for Canada and Impacts on Biogenic VOC Emissions

(https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-08/documents/800am zhang 2 O.pdf).

Bug fixes included in BEIS4 included the following:

•	Solar radiation attenuation in the shaded portion of the canopy was using the direct beam
photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) when the diffuse beam PAR attenuation coefficient
should have been used.

o This update had little impact on the total emissions but did result in slightly higher
emissions in the morning and evening transition periods for isoprene, methanol and
Methylbutenol (MBO).

•	The fraction of solar radiation in the sunlit and shaded canopy layers, SOLSUN and SOLSHADE
respectively were estimated using a planar surface. These should have been estimated based on
the PAR intercepted by a hemispheric surface rather than a plane.

o This update can result in an earlier peak in leaf temperature, approximately up to an
hour.

•	The quantum yield for isoprene emissions (ALPHA) was updated to the mean value in Niinemets
et al. 2010a and the integration coefficient (CL) was updated to yield 1 when PAR = 1000
following Niinemets et al 2010b.

o This updated resulted in a slight reduction in isoprene, methanol, and MBO emissions.

Biogenic emissions computed with BEIS were used to review and prepare summaries but were left out of
the CMAQ-ready merged emissions in favor of inline biogenic emissions produced during the CMAQ
model run itself using the same algorithm described above but with finer time steps within the air
quality model. Figure 2-13 provides an annual estimate of the biogenic VOC emissions in year 2022 from
BEIS4.

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Figure 2-13. Annual biogenic VOC BEIS4 emissions for the 12US1 domain

2022vl beis4 12US1 annual : VOC BEIS

Max: 3304.1482 Min:

>1795
1596
1396
1197

1997 £
o

798
598
399
<199

2.7 Sources Outside of the United States

The emissions from Canada and Mexico are included as part of the emissions modeling sectors:
canmex_point; canmex_area, canada_afdust, canada_ptdust, canada_onroad, mexico_onroad,
canmex_ag, and canada_og2D. The canmex_ag sector is processed as a separate sector for reporting
and tracking purposes, and unlike in other recent emissions platforms, the Canada ag sources are area
sources in this platform rather than pre-gridded point sources. As in prior platforms, Fugitive dust
emissions in Canada are represented as both area sources (canada_afdust sector, formerly "othafdust")
and point sources (canada_ptdust sector, formerly "othptdust"). Due to the large number of individual
points, low-level oil and gas emissions in Canada are processed separately from the canmex_point sector
to reduce the number of individual points to track within CMAQ, and also to reduce the size of the
model-ready emissions files.

Canadian emissions in these sectors were generally taken from 2020 and 2023 inventories provided by
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), interpolated to 2022. ECCC provided the following
inventories, the sectors in which they were incorporated are listed and the inventories are described in
more detail below:

Agricultural livestock and fertilizer, area source format (canmex_ag sector)

Surface-level oil and gas emissions in Canada (canada_og2D sector)

Agricultural fugitive dust, point source format (canada_ptdust sector)

Other area source dust (canada_afdust sector)

Onroad (canada_onroad sector)

Nonroad and rail (canmex_area sector)

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Airports (canmex_point sector)

Other area sources (canmex_area sector)

Other point sources (canmex_point sector)

The 2022 CMV data included coastal waters of Canada and Mexico with emissions derived from AIS data.
These emissions were used for all areas of Canada and Mexico and are included in the cmv_clc2 and
cmv_c3 sectors. Both the C1C2 and C3 emissions were developed in a point source format with point
locations at the center of the 12km grid cells.

Other than the CB6 species present in the speciated point source data, there are no explicit HAP
emissions in these Canadian inventories. In addition to emissions inventories, the ECCC 2020 dataset
also included shapefiles for creating spatial surrogates. These surrogates were used for this study.

While emissions in the 2020 platform were adjusted at the monthly level to reflect COVID pandemic
effects, no such adjustments were made for 2022 modeling.

2.7.1	Point Sources in Canada and Mexico (canmex_point)

Canadian point source inventories provided by ECCC include emissions for airports and other point
sources. The Canadian industrial point source inventory is pre-speciated for the CB6 chemical
mechanism. All Canada point source emissions were interpolated from 2020 and 2023 inventories to
2022 except for the point EGU inventory, for which the 2023 inventory was used directly. This is because
for point EGUs, the ECCC inventories contain different facilities in different years, making an
interpolation difficult.

Point sources in Mexico were compiled in two parts. New emissions inventories representing 2018
developed through a collaboration between EPA and SEMARNAT were used for the six Mexico border
states: Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Mexico inventories
for other states were based on inventories projected from the Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de
Mexico, 2016 (Secretarfa de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT)), projected to 2019 as
part of the 2019 emissions modeling platform. For the emissions carried forward from the 2019
platform, the point source emissions were converted to English units and into the FF10 format that
could be read by SMOKE, missing stack parameters were gapfilled using SCC-based defaults, latitude and
longitude coordinates were verified and adjusted if they were not consistent with the reported
municipality. Only CAPs are covered in the Mexico point source inventory.

2.7.2	Fugitive Dust Sources in Canada (canada_afdust, canada_ptdust)

Fugitive dust sources of particulate matter emissions excluding land tilling from agricultural activities,
were provided by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for 2020 and 2023, and were
interpolated to 2022 for this study. Dust emissions resulting from land tilling due to agricultural activities
and livestock were provided as part of the ECCC area source dust inventory. The provided wind erosion
emissions were removed. The ECCC point source dust inventory includes emissions from road dust. A
transport fraction adjustment that reduces dust emissions based on land cover types was applied to
both point and nonpoint dust emissions, along with a meteorology-based (precipitation and snow/ice
cover) zero-out of emissions when the ground is snow covered or wet.

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2.7.3	Agricultural Sources in Canada and Mexico (canmex_ag)

Agricultural emissions from Canada and Mexico, excluding fugitive dust, are included in the canmex_ag
sector. Canadian agricultural emissions were provided by Environment and Climate Change Canada
(ECCC) as part of their 2020 and 2023 emission inventories (interpolated to 2022). Unlike in recent
platforms, Canadian agricultural were not represented as point sources, instead they were represented
as area sources and gridded using spatial surrogates. In Mexico, agricultural sources were based on new
emissions inventories representing 2018 for the six Mexico border states (Baja California, Sonora,
Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas), and emissions from the 2019 emissions platform
(SEMARNAT-provided 2016, projected to 2019) were carried forward for all other states.

2.7.4	Surface-level Oil and Gas Sources in Canada (canada_og2D)

Canadian point source inventories provided by ECCC included oil and gas emissions, and were
interpolated from 2020 and 2023 to 2022. A very large number of these oil and gas point sources are
surface level emissions, appropriate to be modeled in layer 1. Reducing the size of the canmex_point
sector improves air quality model run time because plume rise calculations are needed for fewer
sources, so these surface level oil and gas sources were placed into the canada_og2D sector for layer 1
modeling.

2.7.5	Nonpoint and Nonroad Sources in Canada and Mexico (canmex_area)

ECCC provided year 2020 and 2023 at the Canada province, and in some cases sub-province, resolution
emissions from for nonpoint and nonroad sources (canmex_area). 2022 was interpolated from the 2020
and 2023 emissions. The nonroad sources were monthly while the nonpoint and rail emissions were
annual.

In Mexico, nonroad and nonpoint sources were based on new emissions inventories representing 2018
for the six Mexico border states (Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas), and emissions from the 2019 emissions platform (SEMARNAT-provided 2016, projected to
2019) were carried forward for all other states.

2.7.6	Onroad Sources in Canada and Mexico (canada_onroad, mexico_onroad)

The onroad emissions for Canada and Mexico are in the canada_onroad and mexico_onroad sectors,
respectively. ECCC provided year 2020 and 2023 at the Canada province, and in some cases sub-province
resolution. 2022 was interpolated from the 2020 and 2023 emissions.

For Mexico onroad emissions, a version of the MOVES model for Mexico was run for 2020 and 2023.
2022 was then interpolated. This provided the same VOC HAPs and speciated VOCs as for the U.S.
MOVES model (ERG, 2016a). This includes NBAFM plus several other VOC HAPs such as toluene, xylene,
ethylbenzene and others. Except for VOC HAPs that are part of the speciation, no other HAPs are
included in the Mexico onroad inventory (such as particulate HAPs nor diesel particulate matter).

2.7.7	Fires in Canada and Mexico (ptfire_othna)

Annual 2022 wildland fire emissions for Mexico, Canada, Central America, and Caribbean nations are
included in the ptfire_othna sector. Canadian fire activity was developed by processing the Canadian
Wildland Fire Information System's National Burned Area Composite (NBAC) and NOAA's Hazard

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Mapping System (HMS) through SMARTFIRE 2.12 Emissions were estimated from the wildland fire
activity using BlueSky pipeline with Canadian Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) fuel beds mapped to Fuel
Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) fuel beds. Fires in Mexico, Central America, and the
Caribbean, were developed from the Fire Inventory from NCAR (FINN) v2.5 daily fire emissions for 2022
(Wiedenmyer, 2023). For FINN fires, listed vegetation type codes of 1 and 9 are defined as agricultural
burning, all other fire detections and assumed to be wildfires. All wildland fires that are not defined as
agricultural are assumed to be wildfires rather than prescribed. FINN fire detects of less than 50 square
meters (0.012 acres) are removed from the inventory. The locations of FINN fires are geocoded from
latitude and longitude to FIPS code.

2.7.8 Ocean Chlorine, Ocean Sea Salt, and Volcanic Mercury

The ocean chlorine gas emission estimates are based on the build-up of molecular chlorine (Cb)
concentrations in oceanic air masses (Bullock and Brehme, 2002). Data at 36 km and 12 km resolution
were available and were not modified other than the model-species name "CHLORINE" was changed to
"CL2" to support CMAQ modeling.

For mercury, the volcanic mercury emissions that were used in the recent modeling platforms were not
included in this 2022vl platform because no HAP+CAP modeling was performed. The emissions were
originally developed for a 2002 multipollutant modeling platform with coordination and data from
Christian Seigneur and Jerry Lin for 2001 (Seigneur et. al, 2004 and Seigneur et. al, 2001). The volcanic
emissions from the most recent eruption were not included in the because they have diminished by the
year 2019. Thus, no volcanic emissions were included.

Because of mercury bidirectional flux within the latest version of CMAQ, no natural mercury emissions
are included in the emissions merge step for HAP+CAP platforms.

12 See https://www.cmascenter.ora/conference/2023/slides/2023-10-18-1350-2021 -Canada-WF-Updates-CMAS.pptx.

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3 Emissions Modeling

The CMAQ and CAMx air quality models require hourly emissions of specific gas and particle species for
the horizontal and vertical grid cells contained within the modeled region (i.e., modeling domain). To
provide emissions in the form and format required by the model, it is necessary to "pre-process" the
"raw" emissions (i.e., emissions input to SMOKE) for the sectors described above in Section 2. In brief,
the process of emissions modeling transforms the emissions inventories from their original temporal
resolution, pollutant resolution, and spatial resolution into the hourly, speciated, gridded and vertical
resolution required by the air quality model. Emissions modeling includes temporal allocation, spatial
allocation, and pollutant speciation. Emissions modeling sometimes includes the vertical allocation (i.e.,
plume rise) of point sources, but many air quality models also perform this task because it greatly
reduces the size of the input emissions files if the vertical layers of the sources are not included.

As seen in Section 2, the temporal resolutions of the emissions inventories input to SMOKE vary across
sectors and may be hourly, daily, monthly, or annual total emissions. The spatial resolution may be
individual point sources; totals by county (U.S.), province (Canada), or municipio (Mexico); or gridded
emissions. This section provides some basic information about the tools and data files used for
emissions modeling as part of the modeling platform.

3.1 Emissions Modeling Overview

SMOKE version 5.1 was used to process the raw emissions inventories into emissions inputs for each
modeling sector into a format compatible with CMAQ. SMOKE executables and source code are
available from the Community Multiscale Analysis System (CMAS) Center at

http://www.cmascenter.org. Additional information about SMOKE is available from http://www.smoke-
model.org. For sectors that have plume rise, the in-line plume rise capability allows for the use of
emissions files that are much smaller than full three-dimensional gridded emissions files. For quality
assurance of the emissions modeling steps, emissions totals by specie for the entire model domain are
output as reports that are then compared to reports generated by SMOKE on the input inventories to
ensure that mass is not lost or gained during the emissions modeling process.

When preparing emissions for the air quality model, emissions for each sector are processed separately
through SMOKE, and then the final merge program (Mrggrid) is run to combine the model-ready, sector-
specific 2-D gridded emissions across sectors. The SMOKE settings in the run scripts and the data in the
SMOKE ancillary files control the approaches used by the individual SMOKE programs for each sector.
Table 3-1 summarizes the major processing steps of each platform sector with the columns as follows.

The "Spatial" column shows the spatial approach used: "point" indicates that SMOKE maps the source
from a point location (i.e., latitude and longitude) to a grid cell; "surrogates" indicates that some or all of
the sources use spatial surrogates to allocate county emissions to grid cells; and "area-to-point"
indicates that some of the sources use the SMOKE area-to-point feature to grid the emissions (further
described in Section 3.4.2). The "Speciation" column indicates that all sectors use the SMOKE speciation
step, though biogenics speciation is done within the Tmpbeis3 program and not as a separate SMOKE
step. The "Inventory resolution" column shows the inventory temporal resolution from which SMOKE
needs to calculate hourly emissions. Note that for some sectors (e.g., onroad, beis), there is no input

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inventory; instead, activity data and emission factors are used in combination with meteorological data
to compute hourly emissions.

Table 3-1. Key emissions modeling steps by sector.

Platform sector

Spatial

Speciation

Inventory
resolution

Plume rise

afdust_adj

Surrogates

Yes

Annual



airports

Point

Yes

Annual

None

beis

Pre-gridded
land use

in BEIS4

computed
hourly in CMAQ



fertilizer

EPIC

No

computed
hourly in CMAQ



livestock

Surrogates

Yes

Daily



cmv_clc2

Point

Yes

hourly

in-line

cmv_c3

Point

Yes

hourly

in-line

nonpt

Surrogates &
area-to-point

Yes

Annual



nonroad

Surrogates

Yes

monthly



np_oilgas

Surrogates

Yes

Annual



onroad

Surrogates

Yes

monthly activity,
computed
hourly



onroad_ca_adj

Surrogates

Yes

monthly activity,
computed
hourly



canada_onroad

Surrogates

Yes

monthly



mexico_onroad

Surrogates

Yes

monthly



canada_afdust

Surrogates

Yes

annual &
monthly



canmex_area

Surrogates

Yes

monthly



canmex_point

Point

Yes

monthly

in-line

canada_ptdust

Point

Yes

annual

None

canada_og2D

Point

Yes

monthly

None

canmex_ag

Surrogates

Yes

annual



ptagfire

Point

Yes

daily

in-line

pt_oilgas

Point

Yes

annual

in-line

ptegu

Point

Yes

daily & hourly

in-line

ptfire-rx

Point

Yes

daily

in-line

ptfire-wild

Point

Yes

daily

in-line

ptfire_othna

Point

Yes

daily

in-line

ptnonipm

Point

Yes

annual

in-line

rail

Surrogates

Yes

annual



rwc

Surrogates

Yes

annual



np_solvents

Surrogates

Yes

annual



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The "plume rise" column in indicates the sectors for which the "in-line" approach is used. These sectors
are the only ones with emissions in aloft layers based on plume rise. The term "in-line" means that the
plume rise calculations are done inside of the air quality model instead of being computed by SMOKE. In
all of the "in-line" sectors, all sources are output by SMOKE into point source files which are subject to
plume rise calculations in the air quality model. In other words, no emissions are output to layer 1
gridded emissions files from those sectors as has been done in past platforms. The air quality model
computes the plume rise using stack parameters, the Briggs algorithm, and the hourly emissions in the
SMOKE output files for each emissions sector. The height of the plume rise determines the model layers
into which the emissions are placed. The plume top and bottom are computed, along with the plumes'
distributions into the vertical layers that the plumes intersect. The pressure difference across each layer
divided by the pressure difference across the entire plume is used as a weighting factor to assign the
emissions to layers. This approach gives plume fractions by layer and source. Day-specific point fire
emissions are treated differently in CMAQ. After plume rise is applied, there are emissions in every layer
from the ground up to the top of the plume.

Note that SMOKE has the option of grouping sources so that they are treated as a single stack when
computing plume rise. For the modeling cases discussed in this document, no grouping was performed
because grouping combined with "in-line" processing will not give identical results as "offline"
processing (i.e., when SMOKE creates 3-dimensional files). This occurs when stacks with different stack
parameters or latitude and longitudes are grouped, thereby changing the parameters of one or more
sources. The most straightforward way to get the same results between in-line and offline is to avoid
the use of stack grouping.

Biogenic emissions can be modeled two different ways in the CMAQ model. The BEIS model in SMOKE
can produce gridded biogenic emissions that are then included in the gridded CMAQ-ready emissions
inputs, or alternatively, CMAQ can be configured to create "in-line" biogenic emissions within CMAQ
itself. For this study, the in-line biogenic emissions option was used, and so biogenic emissions from BEIS
were not included in the gridded CMAQ-ready emissions.

For this study, SMOKE was run for the larger 12-km CONtinental United States "CONUS" modeling
domain (12US1) shown in Figure 3-1, but the air quality model was run on the smaller 12-km domain
(12US2). More specifically, SMOKE was run on the 12US1 domain and emissions were extracted from
12US1 data files to create 12US2 emissions. The grids used a Lambert-Conformal projection, with Alpha =
33, Beta = 45 and Gamma = -97, with a center of X = -97 and Y = 40. In addition, SMOKE was run for grids
over Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico plus the Virgin Islands. Later sections provide details on the spatial
surrogates and area-to-point data used to accomplish spatial allocation with SMOKE. Table 3-2 describes
the grids. WRF, SMOKE, and CMAQ all presume the Earth is a sphere with a radius of 6370000 m.

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Table 3-2. Descriptions of the platform grids

Common Name

Grid
Cell

Size

Description

Grid name

Parameters listed in SMOKE grid description
(GRIDDESC) file: projection name, xorig,
yorig, xcell, ycell, ncols, nrows, nthik

Continental
12km grid

12 km

Entire conterminous US
plus some of
Mexico/Canada

12U51_459X299

'LAM_40N97W', -2556000, -1728000, 12.D3,
12.D3, 459, 299, 1

US 12 km or

"smaller"

CONUS-12

12 km

Smaller 12km CONUS plus
some of Mexico/Canada

12US2

'LAM_40N97W, -2412000,
-1620000, 12.D3, 12.D3, 396, 246, 1

Alaska 9km

9 km

Small 9 km Alaska with
parts of Canada

9AK1

LAM_36N_155W', -1107000, -1134000,
9000, 9000, 312, 252, 1

Hawaii 3km

3 km

Small 3 km Hawaii

3HI1

LAM_21N_157W', -391500, -346500,
3000, 3000, 225, 201, 1

Puerto Rico &
Virgin Islands
3km

3 km

Small 3 km covering
Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands

3PR1

LAM_18N_66W', -274500, -202500,
3000, 3000, 150, 150, 1

Figure 3-1. Air quality modeling domains

a) 12US1 and 12US2

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3.2 Chemical Speciation

Chemical speciation involves the process of translating emissions from the inventory into the chemical
mechanism-specific "model species" needed by an air quality model. Using the CB6R5_AE7 chemical
mechanism as an example, these model species either represent explicit chemical compounds (e.g.,
acetone, benzene, ethanol) or groups of species (i.e., "lumped species;" e.g., PAR, OLE, KET). Table 3-3
lists the model species generated by SMOKE for this mechanism. Table 3-4 and Table 3-5 list additional
model species that are generated when performing toxics modeling, and Table 3-6 lists the mapping
between individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to the PAH groups used in toxics modeling.

Table 3-3. Emission model species produced for CB6R5_AE7 for CMAQ

Inventory Pollutant

Model Species

Model species description

Cl2

CL2

Atomic gas-phase chlorine

HCI

HCL

Hydrogen Chloride (hydrochloric acid) gas

CO

CO

Carbon monoxide

NOx

NO

Nitrogen oxide

NOx

N02

Nitrogen dioxide

NOx

HONO

Nitrous acid

S02

S02

Sulfur dioxide

S02

SULF

Sulfuric acid vapor

nh3

NH3

Ammonia

nh3

NH3_FERT

Ammonia from fertilizer

VOC

AACD

Acetic acid

VOC

ACET

Acetone

VOC

ALD2

Acetaldehyde

VOC

ALDX

Propionaldehyde and higher aldehydes

VOC

APIN

Alpha pinene

VOC

BENZ

Benzene

VOC

CAT1

Methyl-catechols

VOC

CH4

Methane

VOC

CRES

Cresols

VOC

CRON

Nitro-cresols

VOC

ETH

Ethene

VOC

ETHA

Ethane

VOC

ETHY

Ethyne

VOC

ETOH

Ethanol

VOC

FACD

Formic acid

VOC

FORM

Formaldehyde

VOC

GLY

Glyoxal

VOC

GLYD

Glycolaldehyde

VOC

IOLE

Internal olefin carbon bond (R-C=C-R)

VOC

ISOP

Isoprene

VOC

ISPD

Isoprene Product

VOC

IVOC

Intermediate volatility organic compounds

VOC

KET

Ketone Groups

VOC

MEOH

Methanol

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Inventory Pollutant

Model Species

Model species description

voc

MGLY

Methylglyoxal

voc

NAPH

Naphthalene

voc

NVOL

Non-volatile compounds

voc

OLE

Terminal olefin carbon bond (R-C=C)

voc

PACD

Peroxyacetic and higher peroxycarboxylic acids

voc

PAR

Paraffin carbon bond

voc

PRPA

Propane

voc

SESQ

Sesquiterpenes (from biogenics only)

voc

SOAALK

Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) tracer

voc

TERP

Terpenes (from biogenics only)

voc

TOL

Toluene and other monoalkyl aromatics

voc

UNR

Unreactive

voc

XYLMN

Xylene and other polyalkyl aromatics, minus naphthalene

Naphthalene

NAPH

Naphthalene from inventory

Benzene

BENZ

Benzene from the inventory

Acetaldehyde

ALD2

Acetaldehyde from inventory

Formaldehyde

FORM

Formaldehyde from inventory

Methanol

MEOH

Methanol from inventory

PMio

PMC

Coarse PM > 2.5 microns and 0 10 microns

PM2.5

PEC

Particulate elemental carbon 0 2.5 microns

PM2.5

PN03

Particulate nitrate 0 2.5 microns

PM2.5

POC

Particulate organic carbon (carbon only) 0 2.5 microns

PM2.5

PS04

Particulate Sulfate 0 2.5 microns

PM2.5

PAL

Aluminum

PM2.5

PCA

Calcium

PM2.5

PCL

Chloride

PM2.5

PFE

Iron

PM2.5

PK

Potassium

PM2.5

PH20

Water

PM2.5

PMG

Magnesium

PM2.5

PMN

Manganese

PM2.5

PMOTHR

PM2.5 not in other AE6 species

PM2.5

PNA

Sodium

PM2.5

PNCOM

Non-carbon organic matter

PM2.5

PNH4

Ammonium

PM2.5

PSI

Silica

PM2.5

PTI

Titanium

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Table 3-4. Additional HAP gaseous model species generated for toxics modeling

Inventory Pollutant

Model Species

Acetaldehyde

ALD2_PRIMARY

Formaldehyde

FORM_PRIMARY

Acetonitrile

ACETONITRILE

Acrolein

ACROLEIN

Acrylic acid

ACRYLICACID

Acrylonitrile

ACRYLONITRILE

Benzo[a]Pyrene

BENZOAPYRNE

1,3-Butadiene

BUTADIENE13

Carbon tetrachloride

CARBONTET

Carbonyl Sulfide

CARBSULFIDE

Chloroform

CHCL3

Chloroprene

CHLOROPRENE

l,4-Dichlorobenzene(p)

DICHLOROBENZENE

1,3-Dichloropropene

DICHLOROPROPENE

Ethylbenzene

ETHYLBENZ

Ethylene dibromide (Dibromoethane)

BR2_C2_12

Ethylene dichloride (1,2-Dichloroethane)

CL2_C2_12

Ethylene oxide

ETOX

Hexamethylene-l,6-diisocyanate

HEXAMETH_DIIS

Hexane

HEXANE

Hydrazine

HYDRAZINE

Maleic Anyhydride

MAL_ANYHYDRIDE

Methyl Chloride

METHCLORIDE

Methylene chloride (Dichloromethane)

CL2_ME

Specific PAHs assigned w

th URE =0

PAH_000E0

Specific PAHs assigned w

th URE =9.6E-06 (previously 1.76E-5)

PAH_176E5

Specific PAHs assigned w

th URE =4.8E-05 (previously 8.8E-5)

PAH_880E5

Specific PAHs assigned w

th URE =9.6E-05 (previously 1.76E-4)

PAH_176E4

Specific PAHs assigned w

th URE =9.6E-04 (previously 1.76E-3)

PAH_176E3

Specific PAHs assigned w

th URE =9.6E-03 (previously 1.76E-2)

PAH_176E2

Specific PAHs assigned w

th URE =0.01 (previously 1.01E-2)

PAH_101E2

Specific PAHs assigned w

th URE =1.14E-1

PAH_114E1

Specific PAHs assigned w

th URE =9.9E-04 (previously 1.92E-3)

PAH_192E3

Propylene dichloride (1,2-Dichloropropane)

PROPDICHLORIDE

Quinoline

QUINOLINE

Styrene

STYRENE

1,1,2,2-Tetrachloroethane

CL4 ETHANE1122

Tetrachloroethylene (Perchloroethylene)

CL4 ETHE

Toluene

TOLU

2,4-Toluene diisocyanate

TOL DIIS

Trichloroethylene

CL3 ETHE

Triethylamine

TRIETHYLAMINE

m-xylene, o-xylene, p-xylene, xylenes (mixed isomers)

XYLENES

Vinyl chloride

CL_ETHE

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Table 3-5. Additional HAP particulate model species generated for toxics modeling

Inventory Pollutant

Model Species

Arsenic

ARSENIC_C, ARSENIC_F

Beryllium

BERYLLIUM_C, BERYLLIUM_F

Cadmium

CADMIUM_C, CADMIUM_F

Chromium VI, Chromic Acid (VI), Chromium Trioxide

CHROMHEX_C, CHROMHEX_F

Chromium III

CHROMTRI_C, CHROMTRI_F

Lead

LEAD_C, LEAD_F

Manganese

MANGANESE_C, MANGANESE_F

Mercury1

HGIIGAS, HGNRVA, PHGI

Nickel, Nickel Oxide, Nickel Refinery Dust

NICKEL_C, NICKEL_F

Diesel-PMIO, Diesel-PM25

DIESEL_PMC, DIESEL_PMFINE,
DIESEL_PMEC, DIESEL_PMOC,
DIESEL_PMN03, DIESEL_PMS04

Mercury is multi-phase

Table 3-6. PAH/POM pollutant groups

PAH Group

NEI Pollutant Code

NEI Pollutant Description

URE l/(pg/m3)

PAH_000E0

120127

Anthracene

0

PAH_000E0

129000

Pyrene

0

PAH_000E0

85018

Phenanthrene

0

PAH_101E2

56495

3-Methylcholanthrene

0.01

PAH_114E1

57976

7,12-Dimethylbenz[a] Anthracene

0.114

PAH_176E2

189559

Dibenzo[a,i] Pyrene

9.6E-03

PAH_176E2

189640

Dibenzo[a,h]Pyrene

9.6E-03

PAH_176E2

191300

Dibenzo[a,l]Pyrene

9.6E-03

PAH_176E2

7496028

6-Nitrochrysene

9.6E-03

PAH_176E3

192654

Dibenzo[a,e] Pyrene

9.6E-04

PAH_176E3

194592

7H-Dibenzo[c,g]carbazole

9.6E-04

PAH_176E3

3697243

5-Methylchrysene

9.6E-04

PAH_176E3

41637905

Methylchrysene

9.6E-04

PAH_176E3

53703

Dibenzo[a,h] Anthracene

9.6E-04

PAH_176E4

193395

lndeno[l,2,3-c,d]Pyrene

9.6E-05

PAH_176E4

205823

Benzo[j]Fluoranthene

9.6E-05

PAH_176E4

205992

Benzo[b]Fluoranthene

9.6E-05

PAH_176E4

224420

Dibenzo[a,j]Acridine

9.6E-05

PAH_176E4

226368

Dibenz[a,h]acridine

9.6E-05

PAH_176E4

5522430

1-Nitropyrene

9.6E-05

PAH_176E4

56553

Benz[a] Anthracene

9.6E-05

PAH_176E5

207089

Benzo[k]Fluoranthene

9.6E-06

PAH_176E5

218019

Chrysene

9.6E-06

PAH_176E5

86748

Carbazole

9.6E-06

PAH_192E3

8007452

Coal Tar

9.9E-04

PAH_880E5

130498292

PAH, total

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

191242

Benzo[g,h,i,]Perylene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

192972

Benzo[e]Pyrene

4.8E-05

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PAH Group

NEI Pollutant Code

NEI Pollutant Description

URE l/(ng/m3)

PAH_880E5

195197

Benzo(c)phenanthrene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

198550

Perylene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

203123

Benzo(g,h,i)Fluoranthene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

203338

Benzo(a)fluoranthene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

206440

Fluoranthene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

208968

Acenaphthylene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

2381217

1-Methylpyrene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

2422799

12-Methylbenz(a)Anthracene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

250

PAFI/POM - Unspecified

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

2531842

2-Methylphenanthrene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

26914181

Methylanthracene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

284

Extractable Organic Matter (EOM)

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

56832736

Benzofluoranthenes

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

65357699

Methylbenzopyrene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

779022

9-Methyl Anthracene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

832699

1-Methylphenanthrene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

83329

Acenaphthene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

86737

Fluorene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

90120

1-Methylnaphthalene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

91576

2-Methylnaphthalene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

91587

2-Chloronaphthalene

4.8E-05

PAH_880E5

N590

Polycyclic aromatic compounds
(includes PAH/POM)

4.8E-05

The TOG and PM2.5 profiles used to speciate emissions are part of the SPECIATE v5.2 database
(https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-modeling/speciate). The SPECIATE database is developed and
maintained by the EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD), Office of Transportation and Air
Quality (OTAQ), and the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS), in cooperation with
Environment Canada (EPA, 2016). These profiles are processed using the EPA's S2S-Tool
(https://github.com/USEPA/S2S-Tool) to generate the GSPRO and GSCNV files needed by SMOKE. As
with previous platforms, some Canadian point source inventories are provided from Environment
Canada as pre-speciated emissions.

Speciation profiles (GSPRO files) and cross-references (GSREF files) for this platform are available in the
SMOKE input files for the platform. Emissions of VOC and PM2.5 emissions by county, sector, and profile
for all sectors other than onroad mobile can be found in the sector summaries. Total emissions for each
model species by state and sector can be found in the state-sector totals workbook.

The following updates to profile assignments were made to this modeling platform and vary from prior
years:

• For PM2.5:

o All GSPRO files were generated by the S2S-Tool, dated 09-11-2023, and utilized SPECIATE
v5.3.

o Update of the CMV speciation cross-reference files to utilize the SCC updates for this
sector and use the new CROC profiles introduced in SPECIATE v5.3.

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o Update onroad and nonroad mobile cross-reference files to utilize the CROC profiles
introduced in SPECIATE v5.3.

• ForVOC:

o All GSPRO and GSCNV files were generated by the S2S-Tool, dated 09-11-2023, and
utilized SPECIATE v5.3.

o All oil and gas well completion and abandoned wells emissions were updated (or added in
the case of abandoned wells) from 1101 and 8949, respectively, to 95404 and 95403,
respectively. However, this update was not performed for basin-specific profiles that
were output by the O&G Tool,
o Update of the CMV speciation cross-reference files to utilize the SCC updates for this

sector and use the new GROC profiles introduced in SPECIATE v5.3.
o Update usage of 95120a to 95120c.

o Update onroad and nonroad mobile cross-reference files to utilize the GROC profiles
introduced in SPECIATE v5.3.

3.2.1 VOC speciation

The base emissions inventory for this modeling platform includes total VOC and individual HAP
emissions. Often, individual HAPs are components of VOC (HAP-VOC), and these HAP-VOCs are included
("integrated") in the speciation process. This HAP integration is performed in a way to ensure double
counting of emitted mass does not occur and requires specific data processing by the S2S-Tool and user
input in SMOKE.

To incorporate HAP emissions from the base inventory into the modeling platform, one of two methods
are performed. (1) Integrate, HAP-use is a method where the mass of integrated HAP-VOCs is summed
and subtracted from VOC, and the residual mass (NONHAPVOC) is speciated using a renormalized
speciation profile that does not include the integrated HAP-VOCs (they are subtracted from the profile
and then the profile is renormalized to 100%). (2) No-Integrate, HAP-use is a method where the mass of
VOC is speciated using a speciation profile that does not include the integrated HAP-VOCs (they are
subtracted from the profile and the profile is not renormalized to 100%). In this scenario, the HAP-VOC
and VOC portions of the inventory are difficult to harmonize, and it is assumed that the proportions of
HAPs from these sources are adequately captured in the speciation profile used to speciate the VOC
emissions (which is why there is no renormalization). In addition, HAPs can be introduced into a
modeling platform using speciation profiles. In this scenario, HAP-VOC emissions are "generated"
through VOC speciation and are not incorporated from the base inventory. This method is called
"Criteria" speciation. An illustration of these methods is shown in Figure 3-2 and the integration
methods used for this platform for each sector are shown in Table 3-7.

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Figure 3-2. Process of integrating HAPs and speciating VOC in a modeling platform

Table 3-7. Integration status for each platform sector

Platform
Sector

Approach for Integrating NEI emissions of Naphthalene (N), Benzene (B), Acetaldehyde
(A), Formaldehyde (F) and Methanol (M)

afdust

N/A - sector contains no VOC

airports

No integration, use NBAFM in inventory

beis

N/A - sector contains no inventory pollutant "VOC"; but rather specific VOC species

cmv clc2

No integration, no NBAFM in inventory, create NBAFM from VOC speciation

cmv c3

No integration, no NBAFM in inventory, create NBAFM from VOC speciation

fertilizer

N/A - sector contains no VOC

livestock

Full integration (NBAFM)

nonpt

Partial integration (NBAFM)

nonroad

Full integration (internal to MOVES)

np_oilgas

Partial integration (NBAFM)

onroad

Full integration (internal to MOVES)

Canada onroad

No integration, no NBAFM in inventory, create NBAFM from VOC speciation

mexico_onroad

Full integration (internal to MOVES-Mexico); however, MOVES-MEXICO speciation was
older CB6, so post-SMOKE emissions were converted to CB6R3AE6

Canada afdust

N/A - sector contains no VOC

canmex area

No integration, no NBAFM in inventory, create NBAFM from VOC speciation

canmex_point

No integration, no NBAFM in inventory, create NBAFM from VOC speciation

canada_ptdust

N/A - sector contains no VOC

canada_og2D

No integration, no NBAFM in inventory, create NBAFM from VOC speciation

canmex_ag

No integration, no NBAFM in inventory, create NBAFM from VOC speciation

pt_oilgas

No integration, use NBAFM in inventory

ptagfire

Full integration (NBAFM)

ptegu

No integration, use NBAFM in inventory

ptfire-rx

Full integration (NBAFM)

ptfi re-wild

Partial integration (NBAFM)

ptfire_othna

No integration, no NBAFM in inventory, create NBAFM from VOC speciation

ptnonipm

No integration, use NBAFM in inventory

rail

Full integration (NBAFM)

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Platform
Sector

Approach for Integrating NEI emissions of Naphthalene (N), Benzene (B), Acetaldehyde
(A), Formaldehyde (F) and Methanol (M)

rwc

Full integration (NBAFM)

np_solvents

Partial integration (NBAFM)

The HAPs integrated from the base inventory into the modeling platform are sector and chemical
mechanism specific. In recent years, CB6R3_AE7 has been the primary chemical mechanism used at the
EPA. Within that mechanism, naphthalene (NAPH), benzene (BENZ), acetaldehyde (ALD2), formaldehyde
(FORM), and methanol (MEOH) are explicit HAP-VOCs, and these compounds are collectively referred to
as NBAFM. Since NBAFM are explicitly modeled in CB6R3_AE7, these species have become the default
collection of integrated HAP species at the EPA. MOVES, the EPA's mobile emissions model, features
additional species that are explicitly modeled (e.g., ethanol). These species (Table 3-8) are also
incorporated directly into modeling platforms. To incorporate these species, additional files from the
S2S-Tool are required. For California, speciation of NONHAPTOG is performed on CARB's VOC
submissions using the county-specific speciation profile assignments generated by MOVES in California.

Table 3-8. Integrated species from MOVES sources

MOVES ID

Pollutant Name

5

Methane (CH4)

20

Benzene

21

Ethanol

22

MTBE

24

1,3-Butadiene

25

Formaldehyde

26

Acetaldehyde

27

Acrolein

40

2,2,4-Trimethylpentane

41

Ethyl Benzene

42

Flexane

43

Propionaldehyde

44

Styrene

45

Toluene

46

Xylene

185

Naphthalene gas

Several sectors require VOC speciation to occur at the county-level and consistent speciation profiles
cannot be applied across the nation. To accomplish this, the GSREF is setup to provide profiles that are
"blended" at the county/SCC-level using proportions included in the input file. These variable VOC
speciation methods are year-specific and applied in the oil and gas sector and for various mobile
emissions sources. In both the np_oilgas and pt_oilgas sector, VOC speciation profiles are weighted to
reflect region-specific application of controls, differences in gas composition, and variable sources of
emissions (e.g., varying proportions of emissions from associated gas, condensate tanks, crude oil tanks,
dehydrators, liquids unloading and well completions). The Nonpoint Oil and Gas Emissions Estimation

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Tool generates an intermediate file that provides SCC and county-specific emissions proportions, which
are subsequently incorporated into the modeling platform.

For onroad and nonroad mobile sources, the speciation of total organic gas and particulate matter
emissions has historically been performed within MOVES. However, this is now performed outside of
MOVES as a post-processing step. This has the advantages of making MOVES simpler, faster to run, and
making it easier to change or update chemical mechanisms and speciation profiles used in the emissions
modeling process. Some speciation is still performed inside MOVES (i.e., for "integrated species"). In
many cases, these integrated species have effects like temperature or fuel effects which are not always
well captured by external speciation profiles. For total organic gases, MOVES calculates 15 integrated
species, such as methane and benzene, and the remainder is called NONHAPTOG and speciated outside
MOVES.

In MOVES, speciation profiles are assigned by emission process, fuel subtype, regulatory class, and
model year. Each of these dimensions are available in MOVES output except for fuel subtype, which is
aggregated as part of each fuel type. To apply speciation outside of MOVES and make it compatible with
the needs of SMOKE, we need to determine the speciation profile mapping by SMOKE process
(aggregation of MOVES emission processes) and SMOKE Source Classification Code (SCC), which are
defined by fuel type, source type, and road type. To support use of new ROC-based speciation profiles
for mobile sources, during nonroad inventory post-MOVES processing, speciation profile assignments
were updated to both NONHAPTOG and PM2.5 in a one-to-one manner. As well, to support use of these
new profiles, PM2.5 was split into four parts: PEC and PS04 (based on the new speciation profiles); total
organic matter, or TOM (PNCOM plus PEC); and residual_PM, is RESID_PM (all other PM species). These
profile updates are included in the tables below.

Table 3-9. Mobile Speciation Profile Updates

Pollutant

Old profile

New profile

PM2.5

8992

100CROC

PM2.5

8993

101CROC

PM2.5

8994

103CROC (starts)
102CROC (other)

PM2.5

8995

103CROC

PM2.5

8996

104CROC

PM2.5

95219a

105CROC

PM2.5

95220a

106CROC

NONHAPTOG

1001

107GROC

NONHAPTOG

8757

101GROC (starts)
103GROC (other)

NONHAPTOG

8774

104GROC

NONHAPTOG

8775

105GROC

NONHAPTOG

8855

108GROC (starts)
109GROC (other)

NONHAPTOG

8751a

100GROC (starts)
102GROC (other)

NONHAPTOG

95335a

106GROC

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NONHAPTOG

95335a

106GROC

NONHAPTOG

95327

110GROC

NONHAPTOG

95328

111GROC

NONHAPTOG

95329

112GROC

NONHAPTOG

95330

113GROC

NONHAPTOG

95331

114GROC

NONHAPTOG

95332

115GROC

NONHAPTOG

95333

116GROC

NONHAPTOG

8775

105GROC

NONHAPTOG

1001

107GROC

NONHAPTOG

8860

117GROC

PM2_5

8996

109CROC

PM2_5

91106

108CROC

PM2_5

91113

107CROC

PM2_5

95219

105CROC

For this platform, MOVES runs were performed in inventory mode13 for each representative county and
season (i.e., winter and summer) to compute NONHAPTOG output by emission process, fuel type,
regulatory class, and model year. Emissions were then disaggregated by fuel subtype using the market
share of each fuel blend in each county. Then, emissions were normalized and aggregated to calculate
the percentage of total NONHAPTOG emissions that should be speciated by each profile for each SMOKE
SCC and process. Finally, these percentages were applied in SMOKE-MOVES to all counties based on
their representative county. A MOVES post-processing tool was used to generate the speciation cross-
references (GSREFs) for SMOKE from the outputs of the inventory mode runs.

To generate onroad emissions and to perform the subsequent speciation, SMOKE-MOVES was first run
to estimate emissions and both the MEPROC and INVTABLE files were used to control which pollutants
are processed and eventually integrated. From there, the NONHAPTOG emission factor tables produced
by MOVES were speciated within SMOKE using the GSREF files and the NONHAPTOG GSPRO files
generated by the S2S-Tool. Further details on speciation methods involving MOVES can be found in
Table 3-10 and in the associated technical reports (EPA-420-R-22-017, EPA-420-R-23-006).

Table 3-10. Mobile NOx and HONO fractions

Fuel

Model Years

Process

NO

NOx

HONO

Gasoline

1960-1980

Running Exhaust

0.975

0.017

0.008

Gasoline

1981-1990

Running Exhaust

0.932

0.06

0.008

Gasoline

1991-1995

Running Exhaust

0.954

0.038

0.008

Gasoline

1996-2050

Running Exhaust

0.836

0.156

0.008

Gasoline

1960-1980

Start Exhaust

0.975

0.017

0.008

13 Inventory mode was run rather than rates mode because: 1) MOVES inventory mode is faster than rates mode, 2) there are
several dimensions of rates mode output which are not relevant to the assigning of speciation profiles, such as speed bin and
temperature profile and 3) weighting speciation profiles by their emissions inventory is both easier and more accurate than
by MOVES output activity or emission rates.

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Fuel

Model Years

Process

NO

NOx

HONO

Gasoline

1981-1990

Start Exhaust

0.961

0.031

0.008

Gasoline

1991-1995

Start Exhaust

0.987

0.005

0.008

Gasoline

1996-2050

Start Exhaust

0.951

0.041

0.008

Diesel

1960-2003

Exhaust

0.9622

0.0298

0.008

Diesel

2004-2006

Exhaust

0.9325

0.0595

0.008

Diesel

2007-2009

Exhaust

0.7529

0.2381

0.008

Diesel

2010-2060

Exhaust

0.8035

0.1885

0.008

In Canada, a GSPRO_COMBO file is used to generate speciated gasoline emissions that account for
various ethanol mixes. In Mexico, onroad emissions are pre-speciated from the MOVES-Mexico model,
thus eliminating the need for a GSPRO_COMBO file. For both Canada and Mexico, nonroad VOC
emissions are not defined by mode (e.g., exhaust versus evaporative), which necessitates the need for a
GSPRO_COMBO file that splits total VOC into exhaust and evaporative components. In addition, MOVES-
Mexico uses an older version of MOVES that is hardcoded for an older version of the CB6 chemical
mechanism ("CB6-CAMx"). This version does not generate the model species XYLMN or SOAALK, so
additional post-processing is performed to generate those emissions:

•	XYLMN = XYL[1]-0.966*NAPHTHALENE[1]

•	PAR = PAR[1]-0.00001*NAPHTHALENE[1]

•	SOAALK = 0.108*PAR[1]

3.2.2	PM speciation

Like VOC speciation, PM2.5 speciation does feature integrated species from the base inventory, though
there are far fewer (only BC and SO4). The remaining mass is either TOM (total organic matter) or
RESID_PM (residual PM = PM2.5 - BC - SO4 - TOM), which is speciated using SPECIATE profiles that were
post-processed using the S2S-Tool. Small adjustments to the methods were needed to accommodate
the reporting by California. Since California does not provide speciated PM2.5 emissions, total PM2.5
emissions for onroad and nonroad sources in California were speciated using the profile proportions
estimated by MOVES in California. Finally, onroad brake and tire wear PM2.5 emissions were speciated in
the moves2smk postprocessor using the SPECIATE profiles 95462 and 95460, respectively.

3.2.2.1 Diesel PM

Diesel PM emissions are explicitly included in the NEI using the pollutant names DIESEL-PM10 and
DIESEL-PM25 for select mobile sources whose engines burn diesel or residual oil fuels. This includes
sources in onroad, nonroad, point airport ground support equipment, point locomotives, nonpoint
locomotives, and all PM from diesel or residual oil fueled nonpoint CMV. These emissions are equal to
their primary PM10-PRI and PM25-PRI counterparts, are exclusively from exhaust (i.e., do not include
brake/tire wear), and are exclusively used in toxics modeling. Diesel PM is then speciated in SMOKE
using the same speciation profiles and methods as primary PM, except that diesel PM is mapped to
model species that feature "DIESEL_PM" in their species name.

3.2.3	NOx speciation

In the NEI, NOx emissions are inventoried on a NO2 weighted basis, but must be speciated into NO, NO2,
and HONO. Table 3-11 provides the NOx speciation profiles used in EPA's modeling platforms. The only
difference between the two profiles is the allocation of some NO2 mass to HONO in the "HONO" profile.

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HONO emissions from mobile sources have been identified in tunnel studies and its inclusion in
emissions inventories is important for urban chemistry. Here, a HONO to NOx ratio of 0.008 was selected
(Sarwar, 2008). In this modeling platform, all non-mobile sources use the "NHONO" profile, all non-
onroad mobile sources (including nonroad, cmv, and rail) use the "HONO" profile, and all onroad NOx
speciation occurs within MOVES. For further details on NOx speciation within MOVES, please see the
associated technical report.

Table 3-11. NOx speciation profiles

Profile

Pollutant

Species

Mass Split Factor

HONO

NOX

N02

0.092

HONO

NOX

NO

0.9

HONO

NOX

HONO

0.008

NHONO

NOX

N02

0.1

NHONO

NOX

NO

0.9

3.2.4 Sulfuric Acid Vapor (SULF)

Sulfuric acid vapor (SULF) is added for coal and distillate oil fuel combustion sources to the emissions
files using SO2 emissions from the base inventory. This process utilizes profiles assignments in the GSREF
file and the profiles were derived using data from AP-42 (EPA, 1998). The weight fraction of added
sulfuric acid vapor is fuel specific, assumes that gaseous sulfate is primarily H2SO4, and is calculated as
follows:

fraction of S emitted as sulfate MW H2S04
SULF emissions = S02 emissions x —		:	—		:	-	—— x ¦

fraction of S emitted as S02 MW S02

In the above, the molecular weight {MW) of sulfate and sulfur dioxide are 98 g/mol and 64 g/mol,
respectively. The fractions of sulfur emissions emitted as sulfate and sulfur dioxide, as well as the
resulting sulfuric acid vapor split factors, by fuel, are summarized in Table 3-12 and Table 3-13 below.

Table 3-12. Sulfate Split Factor Computation

Fuel

SCCs

Profile

Fraction

Fraction

Split Factor (Mass





Code

as S02

as Sulfate

Fraction)

Bituminous

1-0X-002-YY

X is 1, 2, or 3
YY is 01-19
21-0Z-002-000

Z is 2, 3, or 4

95014

0.95

0.014

.014/.95 * 98/64 =
0.0226

Subbituminous

1-0X-002-YY

X is 1, 2, or 3
YY is 21-38

87514

0.875

0.014

.014/.875 * 98/64
= 0.0245

Lignite

1-0X-003-YY

X is 1, 2, or 3
YY is 01-18

75014

0.75

0.014

.014/.75 * 98/64 =
0.0286

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Fuel

SCCs

Profile
Code

Fraction
as S02

Fraction
as Sulfate

Split Factor (Mass
Fraction)

Residual oil

1-0X-004-YY

X is 1, 2, or 3
YY is 01-06
21-0Z-005-000

Z is 2, 3, or 4

99010

0.99

0.01

.01/.99 * 98/64 =
0.0155

Distillate oil

1-0X-005-YY

X is 1, 2, or 3
YY is 01-06
21-0Z-004-000

Z is 2, 3, or 4

99010

0.99

0.01

Same as residual
oil

Table 3-13. SO2 speciation profiles

Profile

pollutant

species

split factor

95014

S02

SULF

0.0226

95014

S02

S02

1

87514

S02

SULF

0.0245

87514

S02

S02

1

75014

S02

SULF

0.0286

75014

S02

S02

1

99010

S02

SULF

0.0155

99010

S02

S02

1

3.2.5 Speciation of Metals and Mercury

Metals and mercury emissions from the base inventory require speciation for use in modeling. Non-
mercury metals must be speciated into coarse and fine size ranges for use in CMAQ, and Table 3-14,
summarizes the particle size profiles used for each data category.

Table 3-14. Particle Size Speciation of Metals

Source Type

Profile

Pollutant

Fine

Coarse

Onroad

OARS

Arsenic

0.95

0.05

Onroad

ONMN

Manganese

0.4375

0.5625

Onroad

ONNI

Nickel

0.83

0.17

Onroad

CRON

Chromhex

0.86

0.14

Nonroad

NOARS

Arsenic

0.83

0.17

Nonroad

NONMN

Manganese

0.67

0.33

Nonroad

NONNI

Nickel

0.49

0.51

Nonroad

CRNR

Chromhex

0.80

0.20

Stationary

STANI

Nickel

0.59

0.41

Stationary

STACD

Cadmium

0.76

0.24

Stationary

STAMN

Manganese

0.67

0.33

Stationary

STAPB

Lead

0.74

0.26

Stationary

STABE

Beryllium

0.68

0.32

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Source Type

Profile

Pollutant

Fine

Coarse

Stationary

CRSTA

Chromhex

0.71

0.29

Stationary

STARS

Arsenic

0.59

0.41

Mercury is speciated into one of the three forms used by CMAQ; elemental, divalent gaseous, and
divalent particulate. Table 3-15 provides the mercury speciation profiles used in the modeling platform
All relevant SCCs were mapped to these profiles within the GSREF. A caveat is the onroad and nonroad
sectors, where mercury emissions are pre-speciated in MOVES, nonroad emissions from California,
which use the appropriate profiles below, and onroad emissions from California, where MOVES-based
speciation is applied.

Table 3-15. Mercury Speciation Profiles

Profile Code

Description

Elemental

Divalent Gas

Particulate

HGCEM

Cement kiln exhaust

0.66

0.34

0

HGCLI

Cement clinker cooler

0

0

1

HBCMB

Fuel combustion

0.5

0.4

0.1

HGCRE

Human cremation

0.8

0.15

0.05

HGELE

Elemental only (used?)

1

0

0

HGGEO

Geothermal power plants

0.87

0.13

0

HGGLD

Gold mining

0.8

0.15

0.05

HGHCL

Chlor-Alkali plants

0.972

0.028

0

HGINC

Waste incineration

0.2

0.6

0.2

HGIND

Industrial average

0.73

0.22

0.05

HGMD

Mobile diesel

0.56

0.29

0.15

HGMG

Mobile gas

0.915

0.082

0.003

HGMET

Metal production

0.8

0.15

0.005

HGMWI

Medical waste incineration

0.2

0.6

0.2

HGPETCOKE

Petroleum coke

0.6

0.3

0.1

3.3 Temporal Allocation

Temporal allocation is the process of distributing aggregated emissions to a finer temporal resolution,
thereby converting annual emissions to hourly emissions as is required by CMAQ. While the total
emissions are important, the timing of the occurrence of emissions is also essential for accurately
simulating ozone, PM, and other pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere. Many emissions
inventories are annual or monthly in nature. Temporal allocation takes these aggregated emissions and
distributes the emissions to the hours of each day. This process is typically done by applying temporal
profiles to the inventories in this order: monthly, day of the week, and diurnal, with monthly and day-of-
week profiles applied only if the inventory is not already at that level of detail.

The temporal factors applied to the inventory were selected using some combination of country, state,
county, SCC, and pollutant. Table 3-16 summarizes the temporal aspects of emissions modeling by
comparing the key approaches used for temporal processing across the sectors. In the table, "Daily
temporal approach" refers to the temporal approach for getting daily emissions from the inventory

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using the SMOKE Temporal program. The values given are the values of the SMOKE L_TYPE setting. The
"Merge processing approach" refers to the days used to represent other days in the month for the
merge step. If this is not "all," then the SMOKE merge step runs only for representative days, which
could include holidays as indicated by the right-most column. The values given are those used for the
SMOKE M_TYPE setting (see below for more information).

Table 3-16. Temporal settings used for the platform sectors in SMOKE

Platform sector short
name

Inventory
resolutions

Monthly

profiles

used?

Daily

temporal

approach

Merge

processing

approach

Process
holidays as
separate days

afdust_adj

Annual

Yes

week

all

Yes

airports

Annual

Yes

all

all

No

beis

Hourly



n/a

all

No

cmv_clc2

Annual & hourly



All

all

No

cmv_c3

Annual & hourly



All

all

No

fertilizer

Monthly



met-based

All

Yes

livestock

Daily

No

met-based

All

No

nonpt

Annual

Yes

week

week

Yes

nonroad

Monthly



mwdss

mwdss

Yes

np_oilgas

Annual

Yes

aveday

aveday

No

onroad

Annual &
monthly1



all

all

Yes

onroad_ca_adj

Annual &
monthly1



all

all

Yes

canada_afdust

Annual & monthly

Yes

week

all

No

canmex_area

Monthly



week

week

No

canada_onroad

Monthly



week

week

No

mexico_onroad

Monthly



week

week

No

canmex_point

Monthly

Yes

mwdss

mwdss

No

canada_ptdust

Annual

Yes

week

all

No

canmex_ag

Annual

Yes

mwdss

mwdss

No

canada_og2D

Monthly



mwdss

mwdss

No

pt_oilgas

Annual

Yes

mwdss

mwdss

Yes

Ptegu

Annual & hourly

Yes2

all

All

No

ptnonipm

Annual

Yes

mwdss

mwdss

Yes

ptagfire

Daily



all

all

No

ptfire-rx

Daily



all

all

No

ptfire-wild

Daily



all

all

No

ptfire_othna

Daily



all

all

No

rail

Annual

Yes

aveday

aveday

No

rwc

Annual

No3

met-based3

all

No3

np_solvents

Annual

Yes

aveday

aveday

No

1Note the annual and monthly "inventory" actually refers to the activity data (VMT, hoteling, and VPOP) for onroad.
VMT and hoteling is monthly and VPOP is annual. The actual emissions are computed on an hourly basis.

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20nly units that do not have matching hourly CEMS data use monthly temporal profiles.

3Except for 3 SCCs that do not use met-based speciation.

The following values are used in the table. The value "all" means that hourly emissions were computed
for every day of the year and that emissions potentially have day-of-year variation. The value "week"
means that hourly emissions were computed for all days in one "representative" week, representing all
weeks for each month. This means emissions have day-of-week variation, but not week-to-week
variation within the month. The value "mwdss" means hourly emissions for one representative Monday,
representative weekday (Tuesday through Friday), representative Saturday, and representative Sunday
for each month. This means emissions have variation between Mondays, other weekdays, Saturdays and
Sundays within the month, but not week-to-week variation within the month. The value "aveday"
means hourly emissions computed for one representative day of each month, meaning emissions for all
days within a month are the same. Special situations with respect to temporal allocation are described
in the following subsections.

In addition to the resolution, temporal processing includes a ramp-up period for several days prior to
January 1, 2022, which is intended to mitigate the effects of initial condition concentrations. The ramp-
up period was 10 days (December 22-31, 2021). For all anthropogenic sectors, emissions from
December 2022 were used to fill in surrogate emissions for the end of December 2021. For biogenic
emissions, December 2021 emissions were computed using year meteorology.

3.3.1	Use of FF10 format for finer than annual emissions

The FF10 inventory format for SMOKE provides a consolidated format for monthly, daily, and hourly
emissions inventories. With the FF10 format, a single inventory file can contain emissions for all 12
months and the annual emissions in a single record. This helps simplify the management of numerous
inventories. Similarly, daily and hourly FF10 inventories contain individual records with data for all days
in a month and all hours in a day, respectively.

SMOKE prevents the application of temporal profiles on top of the "native" resolution of the inventory.
For example, a monthly inventory should not have annual-to-month temporal allocation applied to it;
rather, it should only have month-to-day and diurnal temporal allocation. This becomes particularly
important when specific sectors have a mix of annual, monthly, daily, and/or hourly inventories. The
flags that control temporal allocation for a mixed set of inventories are discussed in the SMOKE
documentation. The modeling platform sectors that make use of monthly values in the FF10 files are
nonroad, onroad (for activity data), and all Canada and Mexico inventories except for agriculture.
Commercial marine vessels in cmv_c3 and cmv_clc2 use hourly data in the FF10 files.

3.3.2	Temporal allocation for non-EGU sources (ptnonipm)

Most temporal profiles in ptnonipm result in primarily constant emissions for each day of the year,
although some have lower emissions on Sundays. An update in the 2018 platform was an analysis of
monthly temporal profiles for non-EGU point sources in the ptnonipm sector. A number of profiles were
found to be not quite flat over the months but were so close to flat that the difference was not
meaningful. These profiles were replaced in the cross reference to point instead to the flat monthly
profile. The codes for the profiles that were replaced were: 202, 214, 220, 221, 222, 223, 227, 257, 263,
264, 265, 266, 267, 269, 271, 272, 279, 280, 295, 302, 303, 304, 305, 306, 309, 310, 327, 329, 332, and
333. For the 2022vl platform, temporal profiles for SCC 40202501 emissions for which are related to

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surface coating for metals were changed to use hourly profiles number 11 that reflects operations from
7AM to 5PM local time.

3.3.3 Electric Generating Utility temporal allocation (ptegu)

Electric generating unit (EGU) sources matched to ORIS units were temporally allocated to hourly
emissions needed for modeling using the hourly CEMS data for units that could be matched to the CEMS
emissions. Those hourly data were processed through v2.1 of the CEMCorrect tool to mitigate the
impact of unmeasured values in the data.

The temporal allocation procedure for EGUs in the base year is differentiated by whether or not the unit
could be directly matched to a unit with CEMS data via its ORIS facility code and boiler ID. Note that for
units matched to CEMS data, annual totals of their emissions input to CMAQ may be different than the
values in the annual inventory because the CEMS data replace the NOx and SO2 annual inventory data
for the seasons in which the CEMS are operating. If a CEMS-matched unit is determined to be a partial
year reporter, as can happen for sources that run CEMS only in the summer, emissions totaling the
difference between the annual emissions and the total CEMS emissions are allocated to the non-
summer months. Prior to use of the CEMS data in SMOKE it is processed through the CEMCorrect tool.
The CEMCorrect tool identifies hours for which the data were not measured as indicated by the data
quality flags in the CEMS data files. Unmeasured data can be filled in with maximum values and thereby
cause erroneously high values in the CEMS data. When data were flagged as unmeasured and the
values were found to be more than three times the annual mean for that unit, the data for those hours
were replaced with annual mean values (Adelman et al., 2012). These adjusted CEMS data were then
used for the remainder of the temporal allocation process described below (see Figure 3-3 for an
example).

Figure 3-3. Eliminating unmeasured spikes in CEMS data

2017 January Unit 469_5

2000

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

p>.rocr)Ln^HP>.rocr)Ln^HP>.rocr)Ln^HP>.rocr)Ln^HP>.rocr)Ln\-ihNrocr)
rMLnr^oroi-ncoorotDco^HrotDcn^H^rtDcnrM^r-vcnrMi-nr^ocN

January 2017 Hour

•Raw CEM

•Corrected

The region, fuel, and type (peaking or non-peaking) must be identified for each input EGU with CEMS
data so the data can be used to generate profiles. The identification of peaking units was done using

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hourly heat input data from 2022 and the two previous years (2020 and 2021). The heat input was
summed for each year. Equation 1 shows how the annual heat input value is converted from heat units
(BTU/year) to power units (MW) using the NEEDS v6 derived unit-level heat rate (BTU/kWh). In equation
2 a capacity factor is calculated by dividing the annual unit MW value by the NEEDS v6 unit capacity
value (MW) multiplied by the hours in the year. A peaking unit was defined as any unit that had a
maximum capacity factor of less than 0.2 for every year (2020, 2021, and 2022) and a 3-year average
capacity factor of less than 0.1.

Equation 1. Annual unit power output

v8760 Hourly HI	,mw\

Li = 0	*1000 ( , J

Annual Unit Output (MW) = 					

NEEDS Heat Rate ; T<7;

XkWhJ

Equation 2. Unit capacity factor

_	. „	Annual Unit Output (MW)

Capacity Factor =		:—jww-	

NEEDS Unit Capacity ^—J*8760 Qi)

Input regions were determined from one of the eight EGU modeling regions based on MJO and climate
regions. Regions were used to group units with similar climate-based load demands. Region assignment
is made on a state level, where all units within a state were assigned to the appropriate region. Unit fuel
assignments were made using the primary NEEDS v6 fuel. Units fueled by bituminous, subbituminous, or
lignite were assigned to the coal fuel type. Natural gas units were assigned to the gas fuel type. Distillate
and residual fuel oil were assigned to the oil fuel type. Units with any other primary fuel were assigned
the "other" fuel type. Figure 3-4 shows the regions used to generate the profiles. Currently there are 64
unique profiles available based on 8 regions, 4 fuels, and 2 for peaking unit status (peaking and non-
peaking).

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Figure 3-4. Regions used to Compute Temporal non-CEMS EGU Temporal Profiles

EGU Regions

|	LADCO

~	MANE-VU
J	Northwest

~	SESARM
| |	South
¦	West

|	Southwest

¦	West North Central

The daily and diurnal profiles were calculated for each region, fuel, and peaking type group from the
year 2022 CEMS heat input values. The heat input values were summed for each input group to the
annual level at each level of temporal resolution: monthly, month-of-day, and diurnal. The sum by
temporal resolution value was then divided by the sum of annual heat input in that group to get a set of
temporalization factors. Diurnal factors were created for both the summer and winter seasons to
account for the variation in hourly load demands between the seasons. For example, the sum of all hour
1 heat input values in the group was divided by the sum of all heat inputs over all hours to get the hour 1
factor. Each grouping contained 12 monthly factors, up to 31 daily factors per month, and two sets of 24
hourly factors. The profiles were weighted by unit size where the units with more heat input have more
influence on the shape of the profile. Composite profiles were created for each region and type across
ali fuels as a way to provide profiles for a fuel type that does not have hourly CEMS data in that region.
Figure 3-5 shows peaking and non-peaking daily temporal profiles for the gas fuel type in the LADCO
region. Figure 3-6 shows the diurnal profiles for the coal fuel type in the Mid-Atlantic Northeast Visibility
Union (MANE-VU) region.

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Figure 3-5. Example Daily Temporal Profiles for the LADCO Region and the Gas Fuel Type

Daily Small EGU Profile for LADCO gas

0.040

0.035 ¦

Nonpeaking
Peaking

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017

Figure 3-6. Example Diurnal Temporal Profiles for the MANE-VU Region and the Coal Fuel Type

Diurnal Small EGU Profile for MANE-VU coal

SMOKE uses a cross-reference file to select a monthly, daily, and diurnal profile for each source. For the
2022 platform, the temporal profiles were assigned in the cross-reference at the unit level to EGU
sources without hourly CEMS data. An inventory of all EGU sources without CEMS data was used to
identify the region, fuel type, and type (peaking/non-peaking) of each source. The region used to select
the temporal profile is assigned based on the state from the unit FIPS. The fuel was assigned by SCC to

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one of the four fuel types: coal, gas, oil, and other. A fuel type unit assignment is made by summing the
VOC, NOX, PM2.5, and S02 for all SCCs in the unit. The SCC that contributed the highest total emissions
to the unit for selected pollutants was used to assign the unit fuel type. Peaking units were identified as
any unit with an oil, gas, or oil fuel type with a NAICS of 22111 or 221112. Some units may be assigned
to a fuel type within a region that does not have an available input unit with a matching fuel type in that
region. These units without an available profile for their group were assigned to use the regional
composite profile. Municipal waste combustor and cogeneration units were identified using the NEEDS
primary fuel type and cogeneration flag, respectively, from the NEEDS v6 database. Assignments for
each unit needed a profile were made using the regions shown in Figure 3-4.

3.3.4 Airport Temporal allocation (airports)

Airport temporal profiles were updated to 2022-specific temporal profiles for all airports other than
Alaska seaplanes. Hourly airport operations data were obtained from the Aviation System Performance
Metrics (ASPM) Airport Analysis website (https://aspm.faa.gov/apm/svs/AnalysisAP.asp). A report of
2022 hourly Departures and Arrivals for Metric Computation by airport was generated. An overview of
the ASPM metrics is at

https://aspmhelp.faa.gov/index/Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM).html. Figure 3-7
shows examples of diurnal airport profiles for the Phoenix airport (PHX) and the default profile for Texas.

Month-to-day and Annual-to month temporal profiles were developed based on a separate query of the
2022 Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) Airport Analysis

(https://aspm.faa.gov/apm/svs/AnalysisAP.asp). A report of all airport operations (takeoffs and
landings) by day for 2022 was generated. Annual-to-month profiles were derived directly from the daily
airport operations report and examples are shown for Wisconsin and Atlanta in Figure 3-8.

For 2022, all airport SCCs (i.e., 2275*, 2265008005, 2267008005, 2268008005 and 2270008005) were
assigned to individual commercial airports where a match could be made between the inventory facility
and the FAA identifier in the ASPM derived data. State average profiles were calculated as the average
of the temporal fractions for all airports within a state. The state average profiles were assigned by
state to all airports in the inventory that did not have an airport specific match in the ASPM data.

Package processing hubs at the Memphis (MEM), Indianapolis (IND), Louisville (SDF), and Chicago
Rockford (RFD) airports produced peaks in the average state profiles at times not typical for activity in
smaller commercial airports. These packaging hubs were removed from the state averages. Airports
that required state-defaults in states lacking ASPM data use national average profiles calculated from
the average of the state temporal profiles.

Alaska seaplanes, which are outside the CONUS domain use the monthly profile in Figure 3-9. These
were assigned based on the facility ID.

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Figure 3-7. 2022 Airport Diurnal Profiles for PHX and state of Texas

2022 FAA Airport Diurnal Profile: PHX

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Figure 3-8. 2022 Wisconsin and Atlanta annual-to-month profile for airport emissions

2022 FAA State Monthly Profile: Wl default

2022 FAA Airport Monthly Profile: ATL

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Figure 3-9. Alaska seaplane profile

0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

3.3.5 Residential Wood Combustion Temporal allocation (rwc)

There are many factors that impact the timing of when emissions occur, and for some sectors this
includes meteorology. The benefits of utilizing meteorology as a method for temporal allocation are: (1)
a meteorological dataset consistent with that used by the AQ model is available (e.g., outputs from
WRF); (2) the meteorological model data are highly resolved in terms of spatial resolution; and (3) the
meteorological variables vary at hourly resolution and can, therefore, be translated into hour-specific
temporal allocation.

The SMOKE program Gentpro provides a method for developing meteorology-based temporal
allocation. Currently, the program can utilize three types of temporal algorithms: annual-to-day
temporal allocation for residential wood combustion (RWC); month-to-hour temporal allocation for
agricultural livestock NH3; and a generic meteorology-based algorithm for other situations.
Meteorological-based temporal allocation was used for portions of the rwc sector and for the entire ag
sector.

Gentpro reads in gridded meteorological data (output from MCIP) along with spatial surrogates and uses
the specified algorithm to produce a new temporal profile that can be input into SMOKE. The
meteorological variables and the resolution of the generated temporal profile (hourly, daily, etc.)
depend on the selected algorithm and the run parameters. For more details on the development of
these algorithms and running Gentpro, see the Gentpro documentation and the SMOKE documentation
at

http://www.cmascenter.Org/smoke/documentation/3.l/GenTPRQ TechnicalSummary Aug2012 Final.p
df and https://www.cmascenter.Org/smoke/documentation/4.5/html/ch05s03s05.html. respectively.

For the RWC sector, two different algorithms for calculating temporal allocation are used. For most SCCs
in the sector, in which wood burning is more prominent on colder days, Gentpro was used to compute
annual to day-of-year temporal profiles based on the daily minimum temperature. These profiles
distribute annual RWC emissions to the coldest days of the year. On days where the minimum
temperature does not drop below a user-defined threshold, RWC emissions for most sources in the
sector are zero. Conversely, the program temporally allocates the largest percentage of emissions to the

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coldest days. Similar to other temporal allocation profiles, the total annual emissions do not change,
only the distribution of the emissions within the year is affected. The temperature threshold for RWC
emissions was 50 °F for most of the country, and 60 °F for the following states: Alabama, Arizona,
California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. The algorithm is as
follows:

If Td >= Tt: no emissions that day
If Td < Tt: daily factor = 0.79*(Tt -Td)

where (Td = minimum daily temperature; Tt = threshold temperature, which is 60 degrees F in southern states and
50 degrees F elsewhere).

Once computed, the factors were normalized to sum to 1 to ensure that the total annual emissions are
unchanged (or minimally changed) during the temporal allocation process.

Figure 3-10 illustrates the impact of changing the temperature threshold for a warm climate county. The
plot shows the temporal fraction by day for Duval County, Florida, for the first four months of 2007. The
default 50 °F threshold creates large spikes on a few days, while the 60 °F threshold dampens these
spikes and distributes a small amount of emissions to the days that have a minimum temperature
between 50 and 60 °F.

Figure 3-10. Example of RWC temporal allocation using a 50 versus 60 °F threshold

RWC temporal profile, Duval County, FL, Jan - Apr

0.035

For the 2022 emissions modeling platform, a separate algorithm is used to determine temporal
allocation of recreational wood burning, e.g., fire pits (SCC 2104008700) and is applied by Gentpro.
Recreational wood burning depends on both minimum and maximum daily temperatures by county, and
also uses a day-of-week temporal profile (61500) in which emissions are much higher on weekends than
on weekdays. According to the recreational wood burning algorithm, only days in which the
temperature falls within a range of 50°F and 80°F at some point during the day receive emissions. On
days when the maximum temperature is less than 50°F or the minimum temperature is above 80°F, the
daily temporal factor is zero. For all other days, the day-of-week profile 61500 is applied, which has 33%
of the emissions on each weekend day and lower emissions on weekdays. An example is shown in Figure
3-11. As a result of applying this algorithm, northern states have more recreational wood burning in
summer months while southern states show a flatter pattern with emissions distributed more evenly
throughout the months.

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Figure 3-11. Example of Annual-to-day temporal pattern of recreational wood burning emissions

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The diurnal profile used for most RWC sources (see Figure 3-12) places more of the RWC emissions in
the morning and the evening when people are typically using these sources. This profile is based on a
2004 MANE-VU survey (MANE-VU, 2004). This profile was created by averaging three indoor and three
RWC outdoor temporal profiles from counties in Delaware and aggregating them into a single RWC
diurnal profile. This new profile was compared to a concentration-based analysis of aethalometer
measurements in Rochester, New York (Wang et al. 2011) for various seasons and days of the week and
was found that the new RWC profile generally tracked the concentration based temporal patterns.

Figure 3-12. RWC diurnal temporal profile

Comparison of RWC diurnal profile

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The temporal profiles for hydronic heaters" (i.e., SCCs=2104008610 [outdoor], 2104008620 [indoor],
and 2104008620 [pellet-fired]) are not based on temperature data, because the meteorologically based
temporal allocation used for the rest of the rwc sector did not agree with observations for how these
appliances are used.

For hydronic heaters, the annual-to-month, day-of-week and diurnal profiles were modified based on
information in the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority's (NYSERDA)
"Environmental, Energy Market, and Health Characterization of Wood-Fired Hydronic Heater
Technologies, Final Report" (NYSERDA, 2012), as well as a Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use
Management (NESCAUM) report "Assessment of Outdoor Wood-fired Boilers" (NESCAUM, 2006). A
Minnesota 2008 Residential Fuelwood Assessment Survey of individual household responses (MDNR,
2008) provided additional annual-to-month, day-of-week, and diurnal activity information for OHH as
well as recreational RWC usage.

Data used to create the diurnal profile for hydronic heaters, shown in Figure 3-13, are based on a
conventional single-stage heat load unit burning red oak in Syracuse, New York.

Annual-to-month temporal allocation for OHH was computed from the MDNR 2008 survey and is
illustrated in Figure 3-14. The hydronic heater emissions still exhibit strong seasonal variability, but do
not drop to zero because many units operate year-round for water and pool heating.

Figure 3-13. Data used to produce a diurnal profile for hydronic heaters

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Figure 3-14. Monthly temporal profile for hydronic heaters

3.3.6 Agricultural Ammonia Temporal Profiles (livestock)

For the ag sector, agricultural GenTPRO temporal allocation was applied to livestock emissions and to all
pollutants within the sector, not just NH3. The GenTPRO algorithm is based on an equation derived by
Jesse Bash of EPA ORD based on the Zhu, Henze, et al. (2014) empirical equation. This equation is based
on observations from the TES satellite instrument with the GEOS-Chem model and its adjoint to estimate
diurnal NH3 emission variations from livestock as a function of ambient temperature, aerodynamic
resistance, and wind speed. The equations are:

Equation 3-1

Ehh = [161500/T,^ x e<-1380V] * ARhh

PEi,h = Ei,h / Sum(E/,b)	Equation 3-2

where

•	PEi,h = Percentage of emissions in county /' on hour h

•	Ei,h = Emission rate in county /' on hour h

•	Ti,h = Ambient temperature (Kelvin) in county /' on hour h

•	ARi,h = Aerodynamic resistance in county /'

Some examples plots of the profiles by animal type in different parts of the country are shown in Figure
3-15.

To develop month-to-hour temporal profiles of livestock emissions, GenTPRO was run using the
"BASH_NH3" profile method to create for these sources. Because these profiles distribute to the hour
based on monthly emissions, the monthly emissions were obtained from a monthly inventory, or from
an annual inventory that has been temporalized to the month. Figure 3-16 compares the daily emissions
for Minnesota from the "old" approach (uniform monthly profile) with the "new" approach (GenTPRO
generated month-to-hour profiles) for 2014. Although the GenTPRO profiles show daily (and hourly)
variability, the monthly total emissions are the same between the two approaches.

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Figure 3-15. Examples of livestock temporal profiles in several parts of the country

Tulare County, CA	Duplin County, NC

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec	Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

» Be^ ¦ Broiler > Dairy » Layer i Swine |	» Beef m Broiler m Dairy 9 Layer 9 Swine

0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05

Sioux County, IA

Lancaster County, PA

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
m Beef a Broiler m Dairy » Layer m Swine

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
a Beef m Broiler m Dairy » Layer m Swine

0.2
0.15
0.1

0.05

Figure 3-16. Example of animal IMH3 emissions temporal allocation approach (daily total emissions)

MN ag NH3 livestock temporal profiles

u . w . . . ..n

0.0 I-	^

1/1/2008 2/1/2008 3/1/2008 4/1/2008 5/1/2008 6/1/2008 7/1/2008 8/1/2008 9/1/2008 10/1/2008 11/1/2008 12/1/2008

-old

-new

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3.3.7	Oil and gas temporal allocation (np_oilgas)

Monthly temporalization of np_oilgas emissions is based primarily on year-specific monthly factors from
the Oil and Gas Tool (OGT). Factors were specific to each county and SCC. For use in SMOKE, each
unique set of factors was assigned a label (OG20M_0001 through OG20M_6306), and then a SMOKE-
formatted ATPRO_MONTHLY and an ATREF were developed. This dataset of monthly temporal factors
included profiles for all counties and SCCs in the Oil and Gas Tool inventory. Because we are using non-
tool datasets in some states, this monthly temporalization dataset did not cover all counties and SCCs in
the entire inventory used for this study. To fill in the gaps in those states, state average monthly profiles
for oil, natural gas, and combination sources were calculated from Energy Information Administration
(EIA) data and assigned to each county/SCC combination not already covered by the OGT monthly
temporal profile dataset. Coal bed methane (CBM) and natural gas liquid sources were assigned flat
monthly profiles where there was not already a profile assignment in the dataset.

3.3.8	Onroad mobile temporal allocation (onroad)

For the onroad sector, the temporal distribution of emissions is a combination of traditional temporal
profiles and the influence of meteorology. For the 2022 platform EPA utilized the FHWA's Travel
Monitoring and Analysis System (TMAS). This system measures monthly traffic volume, by class and
weight. The primary purpose for using TMAS in 2022 platform was to replace the month VMT
distribution from 2020, which were marked by the COVID pandemic shutdowns in mid-March/April. The
2022 TMAS month VMT distribution looks more like a typical nonpandemic year. We also used day/hour
distributions from the same dataset because they were available and for the correct year (2022). TMAS
data was processed for each state, for each month, and vehicle class. Figure 3-17 shows TMAS data. The
first plot shows hour of the day for the state of Maryland. Note that you can see the rush hour in the
morning and the evening. The second plot shows the state of Minnesota for the month of June. Notice
that motorcycles come out in the spring (winter months show less VMT for motorcycles) and are driven
more on Saturday. The third plot shows an annual, by month plot of Montana. Note that there is an
increase in passenger cars and light duty trucks during the month of July. This may be due to an increase
in tourism during the warmer months.

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Figure 3-17. TMAS Data: VMT Fraction by Hour of Day and Day of Week

TMAS Data: VMT Fraction v. Hour by State
state=Maryland dayType=Weekday

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62 - Combination Long-haul Truck

21 - Passenger Cars
50s - Single Unit Trucks

/proj1/EPA_2022_Platform/TMAS_2022/p!ot_TMAS_hour.sas 30JAN24 17:32

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TMAS Data: VMT Fraction v. Day of Week by State
state=Minnesota monthlD=6

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TMAS Data: VMT Fraction v. Month by State
state=Montana

Total Vehicles

30s - Light-duty Trucks

61 - Combination Short-haul True

11 - Motorcycles
40s - Buses

62 - Combination Long-haul Truck

21 - Passenger Cars
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/proj 1 /EPA_2022_PIatform/TMAS_2022/plot_TMAS.sas 09FEB24 12:53

The "inventories" referred to in Table 3-16 consist of activity data for the onroad sector, not emissions.
VMT is the activity data used for on-network rate-per-distance (RPD) processes. The off-network
emissions from the rate-per-profile (RPP) and rate-per-vehicle (RPV) processes use the VPOP activity
data, which are annual and do not need temporal allocation. For rate-per-hour (RPH) processes that
result from hoteling of combination trucks, the HOTELING inventory is annual and was temporalized to
month, day of the week, and hour of the day through temporal profiles. Day-of-week and hour-of-day
temporal profiles are also used to temporalize the starts activity used for rate-per-start (RPS) processes,
and the off-network idling (ONI) hours activity used for rate-per-hour-ONI (RPHO) processes. The
inventories for starts and ONI activity contain monthly activity so that monthly temporal profiles are not
needed.

For on-roadway RPD processes, the VMT activity data are annual for some sources and monthly for
other sources, depending on the source of the data. Sources without monthly VMT were temporalized
from annual to month through temporal profiles. VMT was also temporalized from month to day of the
week, and then to hourly through temporal profiles. The RPD processes also use hourly speed
distributions (SPDIST) as discussed in Section 2.3. For onroad, the temporal profiles and SPDIST will
impact not only the distribution of emissions through time but also the total emissions. SMOKE-MOVES
calculates emissions for RPD processed based on the VMT, speed and meteorology. Thus, if the VMT or

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speed data were shifted to different hours, it would align with different temperatures and hence
different emission factors. In other words, two SMOKE-MOVES runs with identical annual VMT,
meteorology, and MOVES emission factors, will have different total emissions if the temporal allocation
of VMT changes. Figure 3-18 (from 2021) illustrates the temporal allocation of the onroad activity data
(i.e., VMT) and the pattern of the emissions that result after running SMOKE-MOVES. In this figure, it
can be seen that the meteorologically varying emission factors add variation on top of the temporal
allocation of the activity data.

Figure 3-18. Example temporal variability of VMT compared to onroad NOx emissions

Wake County, NC 2021 VMT and Onroad NOx emissions

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Meteorology is not used in the development of the temporal profiles, but rather it impacts the
calculation of the hourly emissions through the program Movesmrg. The result is that the emissions vary
at the hourly level by grid cell. More specifically, the on-network (RPD) and the off-network parked and
stationary vehicle (RPV, RPH, RPHO, RPS, and RPP) processes use the gridded meteorology (MCIP) either
directly or indirectly. For RPD, RPV, RPH, RPHO, and RPS, Movesmrg determines the temperature for
each hour and grid cell and uses that information to select the appropriate emission factor for the
specified SCC/pollutant/mode combination. For RPP, instead of reading gridded hourly meteorology,
Movesmrg reads gridded daily minimum and maximum temperatures. The total of the emissions from
the combination of these six processes (RPD, RPV, RPH, RPHO, RPS, and RPP) comprise the onroad sector
emissions. In summary, the temporal patterns of emissions in the onroad sector are influenced by
meteorology.

Day-of-week, hour-of-day, and month-of-year temporal profiles for VMT were developed fromTMAS
data. Data were provided for motorcycles (11), passenger vehicles (21), light duty trucks (30s), buses
(40s), single unit trucks (50s), and combination short-haul trucks (61), and combination long-haul trucks
(62). The dataset includes temporal profiles for individual states.

The StreetLight temporal profiles were used in areas of the contiguous United States that did not submit
temporal profiles of sufficient detail for the 2020 NEI. For this platform, the data selection hierarchy
favored local input data over EPA-developed information, with the exception of the three MOVES tables
"hourVMTFraction", dayVMTFraction", and "avgSpeedDistribution" where county-level, telematics-based
EPA Defaults were adopted for the NEI universally. For hoteling, day-of-week profiles are the same as

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non-hoteling for combination trucks, while hour-of-day non-hoteling profiles for combination trucks
were inverted to create new hoteling profiles that peak overnight instead of during the day.

Temporal profiles for RPHO are based on the same temporal profiles as the on-network processes in
RPD, but since the on-network profiles are road-type-specific and ONI is not road-type-specific, the
RPHO profiles were assigned to use rural unrestricted profiles for counties considered "rural" and urban
unrestricted profiles for counties considered "urban." RPS uses the same day-of-week profiles as on-
network processes in RPD, but uses a separate set of diurnal temporal profiles specifically for starts
activity. For starts, there are two hour-of-day temporal profiles for each source type, one for weekdays
and one for weekends. The starts diurnal temporal profiles are applied nationally and are based on the
default starts-hour-fraction tables from MOVES.

3.3.9 Nonroad mobile temporal allocation (nonroad)

For nonroad mobile sources, temporal allocation is performed differently for different SCCs. Beginning
with the final 2011 platform, improvements to temporal allocation of nonroad mobile sources were
made to make the temporal profiles more realistically reflect real-world practices. The specific updates
were made for agricultural sources (e.g., tractors), construction, and commercial residential lawn and
garden sources. In the 2022vl platform, temporal profiles for residential and commercial snowblowers
were changed to be flat for each day of the week since snowfall is not influenced by the day of the week.

Figure 3-19 shows two previously existing temporal profiles (9 and 18) and a newer temporal profile (19)
which has lower emissions on weekends. In this platform, construction and commercial lawn and garden
sources use the new profile 19 which has lower emissions on weekends. Residental lawn and garden
sources continue to use profile 9 and agricultural sources continue to use profile 19.

Figure 3-19. Example Nonroad Day-of-week Temporal Profiles

Day of Week Profiles

0.24
0.22
0.2
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.0G
0.04
0.02
0

monda^ tuesday Wednesday thursday friday Saturday sunda/
	9	18	19

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Figure 3-20 shows the previously existing temporal profiles 26 and 27 along with newer temporal
profiles (25a and 26a) which have lower emissions overnight. In this platform, construction sources use
profile 26a. Commercial lawn and garden and agriculture sources use the profiles 26a and 25a,
respectively. Residental lawn and garden sources use profile 27.

Figure 3-20. Example Nonroad Diurnal Temporal Profiles

Hour of Day Profiles

0.11

26a- New 	27 	25 a-New	26

Additionally, the temporal profile for residential and commercial snowblowers were changed to flat day-
of-week, since snow falls when it falls regardless of weekday/weekend. For the nonroad sector, while
the NEI only stores the annual totals, the modeling platform uses monthly inventories from output from
MOVES. For California, CARB's annual inventory was temporalized to monthly using monthly temporal
profiles applied in SMOKE by SCC.

3.3.10 Fugitive dust temporal profiles (afdust)

For the afdust sector, meteorology is not used in the development of the temporal profiles, but it is used
to reduce the total emissions based on meteorological conditions. These adjustments are applied
through sector-specific scripts, beginning with the application of land use-based gridded transport
fractions and then subsequent zero-outs for hours during which precipitation occurs or there is snow
cover on the ground. The land use data used to reduce the NEI emissions explain the amount of
emissions that are subject to transport. This methodology is discussed in (Pouliot et al., 2010), and in
"Fugitive Dust Modeling for the 2008 Emissions Modeling Platform" (Adelman, 2012). The precipitation
adjustment is applied to remove all emissions for hours where measurable rain occurs, or where there is
snow cover. Therefore, the afdust emissions vary day-to-day based on the precipitation and/or snow
cover for each grid cell and hour. Both the transport fraction and meteorological adjustments are based
on the gridded resolution of the platform; therefore, somewhat different emissions will result from
different grid resolutions. Application of the transport fraction and meteorological adjustments
prevents the overestimation of fugitive dust impacts in the grid modeling as compared to ambient
samples.

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In the 2022vl platform, some changes were made to temporal profiles in the afdust sector as follows:

•	New temporal profiles (monthly, weekly, hourly) were created for paved and unpaved road dust.
The monthly profile is based on monthly emissions from the 2022hc onroad PM2.5 brake and tire
wear, since that has less temperature dependence than other pollutants and process. Weekly
and hourly profiles are based on averages of the TMAS profiles used in SMOKE-MOVES. Unpaved
road dust profiles use averages of passenger trucks only; paved road dust profiles use weighted
averages of 3/4 light-duty vehicle emissions excluding motorcycles, and 1/4 heavy duty emissions
excluding buses. There are separate hourly profiles for weekdays vs weekends.

•	For agricultural tilling, flat day-of-week profiles are now being used along with new monthly
profiles mostly based on nonroad ag emissions. The monthly nonroad ag profiles are based on
LADCO-provided MOVES data and more accurately reflect tilling activities, peaking in spring and
fall.

•	For dust from livestock, the monthly profiles for 2805100010 and 2805100050 (beef cattle and
swine) were updated to the 2022 data from https://u.osu.edu/beef/2023/10/25/more-heifers-
supporting-feedlot-inventory/. Profiles for other livestock dust are not changed from the 2020
platform.

3.3.11 Additional sector specific details (beis, cmv, rail, nonpt, np solvents,
ptfire-rx, ptfire-wild)

In the 2022vl platform, some changes were made to temporal profiles in the nonpt sector:

•	Evaporative SCCs starting with 250105 and 250106 were updated to use monthly temporal
profiles based on monthly total VOC emissions computed from the 2022hc onroad evaporative
off-network processes in the RPP and RPV subsectors contained in the final 2022 onroad
emissions.

•	Residential natural gas (SCC 2104006000) monthly temporal profiles were derived for each state
based on Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for 2022.

In the 2022vl platform, some changes were made to temporal profiles in the np_solvents sector:

•	All asphalt SCCs (paving and roofing) are using new ElA-based monthly profiles for "asphalt and
road oil" by PADD region. The data source is

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET CONS PSUP A EPPA VPP MBBL A.htm.

•	For interior painting, a.k.a. architectural coating (2401001000): created a new monthly profile
PAINT22 based on 2022 data from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM44412USN/.

•	For pesticides (SCCs 2461850000, 2461800001, and 2460800000), monthly profiles were
changed as follows: AZ/CA/FL/HI/TX (the warmest states) are flat annual. Other moderately
warm southeast states from North Carolina south and west to Oklahoma are flat from March
through October, and zero in other months. All other states are flat from April through
September and zero in other months.

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Biogenic emissions from the BEIS model vary each day of the year because they are developed using
meteorological data including temperature, surface pressure, and radiation/cloud data. The emissions
are computed using appropriate emission factors according to the vegetation in each model grid cell,
while taking the meteorological data into account.

For the cmv sectors, most areas use hourly emission inventories derived from the 5-minute AIS data.
For the rail sector, monthly profiles from the 2016 platform were used. Monthly temporal allocation for
rail freight emissions is based on AAR Rail Traffic Data, Total Carloads and Intermodal, for 2016. For
passenger trains, monthly temporal allocation is flat for all months. Rail passenger miles data is
available by month but it is not known how closely rail emissions track with passenger activity since
passenger trains run on a fixed schedule regardless of how many passengers are aboard, and so a flat
profile is chosen for passenger trains. Rail emissions are allocated with flat day of week profiles, and
most emissions are allocated with flat hourly profiles.

For the ptagfire sector, the inventories are in the daily point fire format FF10 PTDAY. The diurnal
temporal profile for ag fires reflects the fact that burning occurs during the daylight hours - see Figure
3-21 (McCarty et al., 2009). This puts most of the emissions during the work-day and suppresses the
emissions during the middle of the night.

Figure 3-21. Agricultural burning diurnal temporal profile

Comparison of Agricultural Burning Temporal Profiles

Industrial processes that are not likely to shut down on Sundays, such as those at cement plants, use
profiles that include emissions on Sundays, while those that would shut down on Sundays use profiles
that reflect Sunday shutdowns.

For the ptfire sectors, the inventories are in the daily point fire format FF10 PTDAY, so temporal profiles
are only used to go from day-specific to hourly emissions. Separate hourly profiles for prescribed and
wildfires were used. For ptfire, state-specific hourly profiles were used, with distinct profiles for

132


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prescribed fires and wildfires. Figure 3-22 below shows the profiles used for each state for the platform
The wildfire diurnal profiles are similar but vary according to the average meteorological conditions in
each state. For all agricultural burning, the diurnal temporal profile used reflects the fact that burning
occurs during the daylight. This puts most of the emissions during the workday and suppresses the
emissions during the middle of the night. This diurnal profile was used for each day of the week for all
agricultural burning emissions in all states.

Figure 3-22. Prescribed and Wildfire diurnal temporal profiles

3.4 Spatial Allocation

The methods used to perform spatial allocation are summarized in this section. For the modeling
platform, spatial factors are typically applied by county and SCC. Spatial allocation was performed for
each of the modeling grids shown in Section 3.1. To accomplish this, SMOKE used national 12-km spatial
surrogates and a SMOKE area-to-point data file. For the U.S., the EPA updated surrogates to use circa
2020 data. The U.S., Mexican, and Canadian 12-km surrogates cover the entire CONUS domain 12US1
shown in Figure 3-1. While highlights of information are provided below, the file

Surrogate_specifications_2022_platform_US_Can_Mex.xlsx documents the complete configuration for
generating the surrogates and can be referenced for more details.

3.4.1 Spatial Surrogates for U.S. emissions

There are more than 90 spatial surrogates available for spatially allocating U.S. county-level emissions to
the 12-km grid cells used by the air quality model. As described in Section 3.4.2, an area-to-point
approach overrides the use of surrogates for airport refueling sources.

The surrogates for the platform are based on a variety of geospatial data sources, including the
American Community Survey (ACS) for census-related data, the National Land Cover Database (NLCD)
Onroad surrogates are based on average annual daily traffic counts (AADT) from the highway monitoring
performance system (HPMS).

U.S. Surrogate datasets used for this platform include:

County boundaries used for all surrogates use the 2020 TIGER boundaries.

Oil and gas surrogates represent activity from the year 2022.

ACS-based surrogates use the 2020 ACS.

NLCD-based surrogates use NLCD 2019.

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Animal specific livestock waste surrogates were derived from National Pollutant Discharge
Elimination System (NPDES) animal operation water permits and Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) gridded livestock count data.

Surrogates for fuel stations, asphalt surfaces, and unpaved roads are based on data from the
OpenStreetMap database.

Gravel and lead mines use separate surrogates based on the more general United States
Geological Survey (USGS) mining surrogate.

Residential wood combustion surrogates are based on ACS data.

When developing modeling platforms, EPA routinely updates surrogates to utilize updated versions of
the underlying surrogate databases or to use a different source of data when it is deemed more
representative for a particular source category. In the 2020 platform, NLCD-based surrogates were
updated from using the 2011 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) to use the 2019 National Land Cover
Database. During these updates, EPA also examined the Residential Wood Combustion (RWC)
surrogates that were based on the NLCD. This was done to see if there are other sources of spatial data
that could improve the geographic representation of the RWC sector when disaggregating the county-
level emissions provided by the emissions inventory to grid cells. For the RWC sector prior to the 2020
platform, the spatial surrogate used was #300 computed from "NLCD Low Intensity development" (i.e.,
land areas with 20-49% impervious surface). This surrogate was initially selected for RWC to capture
geographic areas where there may be houses but generally in less developed spaces. However, this
surrogate does not differentiate by development or structure type. The result is that RWC emissions can
end up concentrated around roads, commercial, and other low to moderately developed grid cells.

In the 2020 platform, housing data provided by the American Community Survey (ACS) were used. The
particular attributes used are: single family detached, single family attached, dual family and mobile
home and combinations of these, depending on the particular RWC specific source category. Using
types of housing seemed more reflective of where RWC emissions would be located. However, a
downside of using the ACS housing data is that the census shapes are broad (particularly in rural areas),
so the emissions can appear more spread out in some areas than when using the NLCD-based
surrogates. When comparing the two approaches for RWC surrogates (NLCD vs ACS), the ACS-based
surrogates looked reasonable, and in fact better than the NLCD Low intensity development surrogate. A
comparison of the PM2.5 emissions gridded with each of these approaches is shown in Figure 3-23 and
Figure 3-24. In the future, a goal is to further improve the resolution surrogates, as such, the use of
building structure data weighted by the ACS will be examined for future platform updates.

134


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Figure 3-23. 2020 Residential Wood Combustion Emissions using NLCD Low Intensity Surrogate

2020ha RWC PM2 5 - old surrogates, total emissions

Max: 315.8044 Min: 0.

>14.4

12.8

11.2

9.6

8.0

6.4

4.8

3.2

<1.6

Figure 3-24. 2020 Residential Wood Combustion Emissions using ACS-based Surrogate

>14.4
12.8
11.2
9.6

k_

>.

8.0 £
o

6.4
4.8
3.2
<1.6

Surrogates for the U.S. were generated using the Surrogate Tools DB with the Java-based Surrogate tools
used to perform gapfilling and normalization where needed. The tool and documentation for the
original Surrogate Tool are available at https://www.cmascenter.org/sa-

135


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tools/documentation/4.2/SurrogateToolUserGuide 4 2.pdf. and the tool and documentation for the
Surrogate Tools DB is available from https://www.cmascenter.org/surrogate tools db/. Table 3-17 lists
the codes and descriptions of the surrogates. Surrogate names and codes listed in italics are not directly
assigned to any sources in the platform, but they are sometimes used to gapfill other surrogates. When
the source data for a surrogate have no values for a particular county, gap filling is used to provide
values for the spatial surrogate in those counties to ensure that no emissions are dropped when the
spatial surrogates are applied to the emission inventories. The Shapefiles used to develop the US
surrogates along with the attributes and filters used are shown in Table 3-18.

Table 3-17. U.S. Surrogates available for the 2022 modeling platforms

Code

Surrogate Description

Code

Surrogate Description

N/A

Area-to-point approach (see 3.6.2)

650

Refineries and Tank Farms

100

Population

669

All Abandoned Wells

110

Housing

6691

All Abandoned Oil Wells

135

Detached Housing

6692

All Abandoned Gas Wells

136

Single and Dual Unit Housing

6693

All Abandoned CBM Wells

137

Single + Dual Unit+ Manufactured Housing

6694

All Abandoned Oil Wells - Plugged

150

Residential Heating - Natural Gas

6695

All Abandoned Gas Wells - Plugged

170

Residential Heating - Distillate Oil

6696

All Abandoned CBM Wells - Plugged

180

Residential Heating - Coal

6697

All Abandoned Oil Wells - Unplugged

190

Residential Heating - LP Gas

6698

All Abandoned Gas Wells - Unplugged

205

Extended Idle Locations

670

Spud Count - CBM Wells

239

Total Road AADT

671

Spud Count - Gas Wells

240

Total Road Miles

672

Gas Production at Oil Wells

242

All Restricted AADT

673

Oil Production at CBM Wells

244

All Unrestricted AADT

674

Unconventional Well Completion Counts

258

Intercity Bus Terminals

676

Well Count - All Producing

259

Transit Bus Terminals

677

Well Count - All Exploratory

260

Total Railroad Miles

678

Completions at Gas Wells

261

NTAD Total Railroad Density

679

Completions at CBM Wells

271

NTAD Class 12 3 Railroad Density

681

Spud Count - Oil Wells

300

NLCD Low Intensity Development

683

Produced Water at All Wells

304

NLCD Open + Low

6831

Produced Water at CBM Wells

305

NLCD Low + Med

6832

Produced Water at Gas Wells

306

NLCD Med + High

6833

Produced Water at Oil Wells

307

NLCD All Development

685

Completions at Oil Wells

308

NLCD Low + Med + High

686

Completions at All Wells

309

NLCD Open + Low + Med

687

Feet Drilled at All Wells

310

NLCD Total Agriculture

689

Gas Produced - Total

318

NLCD Pasture Land

691

Well Counts-CBM Wells

319

NLCD Crop Land

692

Spud Count - All Wells

320

NLCD Forest Land

693

Well Count - All Wells

136


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321

NLCD Recreational Land

694

Oil Production at Oil Wells

340

NLCD Land

695

Well Count - Oil Wells

350

NLCD Water

696

Gas Production at Gas Wells

401

FAO 2010 Cattle

697

Oil Production at Gas Wells

4011

FAO 2010 Large Cattle Operations

698

Well Count - Gas Wells

4012

NPDES 2020 Beef Cattle

699

Gas Production at CBM Wells

4013

NPDES 2020 Dairy Cattle

711

Airport Areas

402

FAO 2010 Pig

801

Port Areas

4021

NPDES 2020 Swine

850

Golf Courses

403

FAO 2010 Chicken

860

Mines

4031

NPDES 2020 Chicken

861

Sand and Gravel Mines

404

FAO 2010 Goat

862

Lead Mines

4041

NPDES 2020 Goat

863

Crushed Stone Mines

405

FAO 2010 Horse

900

OSM Fuel

406

FAO 2010 Sheep

901

OSM Asphalt Surfaces

4071

NPDES2020 Turkey

902

OSM Unpaved Roads

508

Public Schools



Table 3-18. Shapefiles used to develop U.S. Surrogates

Code

Surrogate

Weight Shapefile

Weight
Attribute

Filter Function

100

Population

ACS_2020_5YR_BG_pop_hu

POP2020



110

Housing

ACS_2020_5YR_BG_pop_hu

HU2020



135

Detached Housing

ACS_2020_5YR_BG_pop_hu

detachedh



136

Single and Dual Unit Housing

ACS_2020_5YR_BG_pop_hu

Ittriunit



137

Single + Dual Unit +
Manufactured Housing

ACS 2020 5YR BG pop hu mobile

sngdlmobl



150

Residential Heating - Natural
Gas

ACS_2020_5YR_BG_pop_hu

UTIL GAS



170

Residential Heating - Distillate
Oil

ACS_2020_5YR_BG_pop_hu

FUEL OIL



180

Residential Heating - Coal

ACS_2020_5YR_BG_pop_hu

COAL



190

Residential Heating - LP Gas

ACS_2020_5YR_BG_pop_hu

LP GAS



205

Extended Idle Locations

pil_2019_06_24

rev truck

rev truck>0

239

Total Road AADT

hpms2017_v3_04052020

aadt

moves2014 IN
('02703704705')

240

Total Road Miles

hpms2017_v3_04052020

NONE

moves2014 IN
('02703704705')

242

All Restricted AADT

hpms2017_v3_04052020

aadt

moves2014 IN
('02704')

Code

Surrogate

Weight Shapefile

Weight
Attribute

Filter Function

137


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244

All Unrestricted AADT

hpms2017_v3_04052020

aadt

moves2014 IN
('03705')

259

Transit Bus Terminals

ntad_2016_ipcd

NONE

bus t=l

260

Total Railroad Miles

tiger_2014_rail

NONE



261

NTAD Total Railroad Density

ntad 2014 rail fixed

dens

RAILTYPE IN
(1,2,3)

271

NTAD Class 12 3 Railroad
Density

ntad 2014 rail fixed

dens

RAILTYPE=1

300

NLCD Low Intensity
Development

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE=22

304

NLCD Open + Low

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE IN
(21,22)

305

NLCD Low + Med

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE IN
(22,23)

306

NLCD Med + High

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE IN
(23,24)

307

NLCD All Development

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE IN
(21,22,23,24)

308

NLCD Low + Med + High

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE IN
(22,23,24)

309

NLCD Open + Low + Med

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE IN
(21,22,23)

310

NLCD Total Agriculture

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE IN
(81,82)

318

NLCD Pasture Land

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE=81

319

NLCD Crop Land

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE=82

320

NLCD Forest Land

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE IN
(41,42,43)

321

NLCD Recreational Land

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE IN

(21,31,41,42,43,5

2,71)

340

NLCD Land

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE != 11

350

NLCD Water

nlcd_2019_land_cover_l48_20210604_5
00m II

NONE

GRIDCODE=ll

401

FAO 2010 Cattle

fao_Cattle_2010_Da_nlcdproj_masked

DN



4011

FAO 2010 Large Cattle
Operations

f ao_La rgeCattl e_2010_Da_n 1 cd proj_m as
ked

DN



4012

NPDES 2020 Beef Cattle

livestock_npdes_state_permits_subset

Population

Animal = 'Beef'

4013

NPDES 2020 Dairy Cattle

livestock_npdes_state_permits_subset

Population

Animal = 'Dairy'

402

FAO 2010 Pig

fao_Pig_2010_Da_nlcdproj_masked

DN



4021

NPDES 2020 Swine

livestock_npdes_state_permits_subset

Population

Animal = 'Swine'

Code

Surrogate

Weight Shapefile

Weight
Attribute

Filter Function

403

FAO 2010 Chicken

fao_Chicken_2010_Da_nlcdproj_masked

DN



138


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Animal =

4031

NPDES 2020 Chicken

livestock_npdes_state_permits_subset

Population

'Chicken'

404

FAO 2010 Goat

fao_Goat_2010_Da_nlcdproj_masked

DN



4041

NPDES 2020 Goat

livestock_npdes_state_permits_subset

Population

Animal = 'Goat'

405

FAO 2010 Horse

fao_Horse_2010_Da_nlcdproj_masked

DN



406

FAO 2010 Sheep

fao_Sheep_2010_Da_nlcdproj_masked

DN



4071

NPDES 2020 Turkey

livestock_npdes_state_permits_subset

Population

Animal = 'Turkey'

508

Public Schools

public_schools_2018_2019

TOTAL



650

Refineries and Tank Farms

eia 2015 us oil

NONE



669

All Abandoned Wells

AW ALL COUNTS 669 2022

ACTIVITY





All Abandoned CBM Wells -







6696

Plugged

AW CBM PLUGGED 6696 2022

ACTIVITY



6693

All Abandoned CBM Wells

AW_CBM_PLUGGED_UNPLUGGED_6693_202
2

ACTIVITY





All Abandoned Gas Wells -







6695

Plugged

AW GAS PLUGGED 6695 2022

ACTIVITY



6692

All Abandoned Gas Wells

AW_GAS_PLUGGED_UNPLUGGED_6692_202
2

ACTIVITY





All Abandoned Gas Wells -







6698

Unplugged

AW GAS UNPLUGGED 6698 2022

ACTIVITY





All Abandoned Oil Wells -







6694

Plugged

AW OIL PLUGGED 6694 2022

ACTIVITY



6691

All Abandoned Oil Wells

AW OIL PLUGGED UNPLUGGED 6691 2022

ACTIVITY





All Abandoned Oil Wells -







6697

Unplugged

AW OIL UNPLUGGED 6697 2022

ACTIVITY



670

Spud Count - CBM Wells

SPUD CBM 670 2022

ACTIVITY



671

Spud Count - Gas Wells

SPUD GAS 671 2022

ACTIVITY







ASSOCIATED GAS PRODUCTION 672 20





672

Gas Production at Oil Wells

22

ACTIVITY







CONDENSATE CBM PRODUCTION 673





673

Oil Production at CBM Wells

2022

ACTIVITY





Unconventional Well

COMPLETIONS UNCONVENTIONAL 674





674

Completion Counts

2022

ACTIVITY



676

Well Count - All Producing

TOTAL PROD WELL 676 2022

ACTIVITY



677

Well Count - All Exploratory

TOTAL EXPL WELL 677 2022

ACTIVITY



678

Completions at Gas Wells

COMPLETIONS GAS 678 2022

ACTIVITY



679

Completions at CBM Wells

COMPLETIONS CBM 679 2022

ACTIVITY



681

Spud Count - Oil Wells

SPUD OIL 681 2022

ACTIVITY



683

Produced Water at All Wells

PRODUCED WATER ALL 683 2022

ACTIVITY



Code

Surrogate

Weight Shapefile

Weight
Attribute

Filter Function

6831

Produced Water at CBM Wells

PRODUCED WATER CBM 6831 2022

ACTIVITY



6832

Produced Water at Gas Wells

P RO D UCED_WATE R_GAS_683 2_20 22

ACTIVITY



139


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6833

Produced Water at Oil Wells

PRODUCED WATER OIL 6833 2022

ACTIVITY



685

Completions at Oil Wells

COMPLETIONS OIL 685 2022

ACTIVITY



686

Completions at All Wells

COMPLETIONS ALL 686 2022

ACTIVITY



687

Feet Drilled at All Wells

FEET DRILLED 687 2022

ACTIVITY



689

Gas Produced - Total

TOTAL GAS PRODUCTION 689 2022

ACTIVITY



691

Well Counts - CBM Wells

CBM WELLS 691 2022

ACTIVITY



692

Spud Count - All Wells

SPUD ALL 692 2022

ACTIVITY



693

Well Count - All Wells

TOTAL WELL 693 2022

ACTIVITY



694

Oil Production at Oil Wells

OIL PRODUCTION 694 2022

ACTIVITY



695

Well Count - Oil Wells

OIL WELLS 695 2022

ACTIVITY



696

Gas Production at Gas Wells

GAS PRODUCTION 696 2022

ACTIVITY



697

Oil Production at Gas Wells

CO N D E N SATE_GAS_PRO D UCTIO N_697_2
022

ACTIVITY



698

Well Count - Gas Wells

GAS WELLS 698 2022

ACTIVITY



699

Gas Production at CBM Wells

CBM PRODUCTION 699 2022

ACTIVITY



711

Airport Areas

airport_area

area



801

Port Areas

Ports 2014NEI

area_sqmi



850

Golf Courses

u sa_go lf_co u rses_2019_10

NONE



860

Mines

usgs_mrds_active_mines

NONE



861

Sand and Gravel Mines

usgs_mrds_active_mines

NONE

CAT='Gravel'

862

Lead Mines

usgs_mrds_active_mines

NONE

CAT='Lead'

863

Crushed Stone Mines

usgs_mrds_active_mines

NONE

CAT='Stone'

900

OSM Fuel

osm_fuel_points_us_mar2023

NONE



901

OSM Asphalt Surfaces

osm_asphalt_surfaces_us_mar2023

NONE



902

OSM Unpaved Roads

osm_unpaved_roads_us_mar2023

NONE



The 'Data Shapefile' used for all of the U.S. surrogates except for those based on HPMS data is
cb_2020_us_county_500k, while the HPMS-based surrogates use hpms2017_v3_04052020. Similarly,
most surrogates use the GEOID as the Data attribute while the HPMS surrogates use FIPS. The gapfilling
configuration for the surrogates is shown in Table 3-19. If there are no entries for a county for the
primary surrogate, the values for the county from the secondary surrogate are used. If there are also no
entries for the secondary surrogate, the values for the tertiary surrogate are used, with the quarternary
surrogate being the final fallback. Typically, only surrogates that should have values for all counties are
selected as the quarternary surrogate. This process is used to limit any emissions that could be dropped
if there are emissions in the inventory in a county for which the primary surrogate does not have values.
It is important to note that once gapfilling is performed, SMOKE does not know that emissions for that
county were from a secondary, tertiary or quarternary surrogate and any reports will assign the
emissions in gapfilled counties to the primary surrogate.

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Table 3-19. Surrogates used to gapfill U.S. Surrogates

SURROGATE
CODE

SURROGATE

SECONDARY
SURROGATE

TERTIARY
SURROGATE

QUARTERNARY
SURROGATE

100

Population







110

Housing

Population





135

Detached Housing

NLCD Low Intensity
Development





136

Single and Dual Unit Housing

NLCD Low Intensity
Development





137

Single + Dual Unit +
Manufactured Housing

NLCD Low Intensity
Development

NLCD Land



150

Residential Heating - Natural
Gas

Population





170

Residential Heating -
Distillate Oil

Housing





180

Residential Heating-Coal

Housing





190

Residential Heating - LP Gas

Housing





205

Extended Idle Locations

Total Road Miles





239

Total Road AADT

Total Road Miles





240

Total Road Miles







242

All Restricted AADT

Total Road Miles





244

All Unrestricted AADT

Total Road Miles





259

Transit Bus Terminals

Population

NLCD Land



260

Total Railroad Miles

Total Road Miles

Population



261

NTAD Total Railroad Density

Total Railroad Miles

Total Road Miles

Population

271

NTAD Class 12 3 Railroad
Density

NTAD Total Railroad
Density

Total Railroad Miles

Total Road Miles

300

NLCD Low Intensity
Development

Housing

Population

NLCD Land

304

NLCD Open + Low

Housing

Population

NLCD Land

305

NLCD Low + Med

Housing

Population

NLCD Land

306

NLCD Med + High

Housing

Population

NLCD Land

307

NLCD All Development

Housing

Population

NLCD Land

308

NLCD Low + Med + High

Housing

Population

NLCD Land

309

NLCD Open + Low + Med

Housing

Population

NLCD Land

310

NLCD Total Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low

NLCD Land



318

NLCD Pasture Land

Housing

NLCD Land



319

NLCD Crop Land

Housing

NLCD Land



320

NLCD Forest Land

Housing

NLCD Land



321

NLCD Recreational Land

Housing

NLCD Land



340

NLCD Land







350

NLCD Water







401

FAO 2010 Cattle

NLCD Total Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low



4011

FAO 2010 Large Cattle
Operations

FAO 2010 Cattle

NLCD Total
Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low

4012

NPDES 2020 Beef Cattle

FAO 2010 Cattle

NLCD Total
Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low

141


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SURROGATE
CODE

SURROGATE

SECONDARY
SURROGATE

TERTIARY
SURROGATE

QUARTERNARY
SURROGATE

4013

NPDES 2020 Dairy Cattle

FAO 2010 Large Cattle
Operations

NLCD Total
Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low

402

FAO 2010 Pig

NLCD Total Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low



4021

NPDES 2020 Swine

FAO 2010 Pig

NLCD Total
Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low

403

FAO 2010 Chicken

NLCD Total Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low



4031

NPDES 2020 Chicken

FAO 2010 Chicken

NLCD Total
Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low

404

FAO 2010 Goat

NLCD Total Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low



4041

NPDES 2020 Goat

FAO 2010 Goat

NLCD Total
Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low

405

FAO 2010 Horse

NLCD Total Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low



406

FAO 2010 Sheep

NLCD Total Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low



4071

NPDES2020 Turkey

NLCD Total Agriculture

NLCD Open + Low



508

Public Schools

Population

NLCD Land



650

Refineries and Tank Farms

NLCD Low + Med

Population

NLCD Land

669

All Abandoned Wells

Well Count - All Wells

NLCD Open + Low



6696

All Abandoned CBM Wells -
Plugged

All Abandoned CBM
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

6693

All Abandoned CBM Wells

Well Count - All Wells

NLCD Open + Low



6695

All Abandoned Gas Wells -
Plugged

All Abandoned Gas
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

6692

All Abandoned Gas Wells

Well Count - All Wells

NLCD Open + Low



6698

All Abandoned Gas Wells -
Unplugged

All Abandoned Gas
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

6694

All Abandoned Oil Wells -
Plugged

All Abandoned Oil
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

6691

All Abandoned Oil Wells

Well Count - All Wells

NLCD Open + Low



6697

All Abandoned Oil Wells -
Unplugged

All Abandoned Oil
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

670

Spud Count - CBM Wells

Spud Count - All Wells

Well Count - All
Wells



671

Spud Count - Gas Wells

Well Count - Gas Wells

Well Count - All
Wells



672

Gas Production at Oil Wells

NLCD Open + Low

Well Count - Oil
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

673

Oil Production at CBM Wells

Well Count-CBM
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

674

Unconventional Well
Completion Counts

Completions at All
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

676

Well Count - All Producing

Well Count - All Wells

NLCD Open + Low



677

Well Count - All Exploratory

Well Count - All Wells

NLCD Open + Low



678

Completions at Gas Wells

Spud Count - All Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

679

Completions at CBM Wells

Spud Count - All Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

681

Spud Count - Oil Wells

Well Count - Oil Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

142


-------
SURROGATE
CODE

SURROGATE

SECONDARY
SURROGATE

TERTIARY
SURROGATE

QUARTERNARY
SURROGATE

683

Produced Water at All Wells

Completions at All
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

6831

Produced Water at CBM
Wells

Well Counts - CBM
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

6832

Produced Water at Gas Wells

Well Count - Gas Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

6833

Produced Water at Oil Wells

Well Count - Oil Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

685

Completions at Oil Wells

Spud Count - All Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

686

Completions at All Wells

Well Count - All
Exploratory

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

687

Feet Drilled at All Wells

Well Count - All
Exploratory

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

689

Gas Produced - Total

Well Count - All Wells

NLCD Open + Low



691

Well Counts - CBM Wells

Completions at CBM
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

692

Spud Count - All Wells

Completions at All
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

693

Well Count - All Wells

NLCD Open + Low





694

Oil Production at Oil Wells

Completions at Oil
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

695

Well Count - Oil Wells

Completions at Oil
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

696

Gas Production at Gas Wells

Completions at Gas
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

697

Oil Production at Gas Wells

Well Count - Gas Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

698

Well Count - Gas Wells

Completions at Gas
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

699

Gas Production at CBM Wells

Well Counts - CBM
Wells

Well Count - All
Wells

NLCD Open + Low

711

Airport Areas

Population

NLCD Land



801

Port Areas

NLCD Water





850

Golf Courses

Housing

Population

NLCD Land

860

Mines

NLCD Open + Low

NLCD Land



861

Sand and Gravel Mines

Mines

NLCD Open + Low

NLCD Land

862

Lead Mines

Mines

NLCD Open + Low

NLCD Land

863

Crushed Stone Mines

Mines

NLCD Open + Low

NLCD Land

900

OSM Fuel

Total Road AADT

Total Road Miles



901

OSM Asphalt Surfaces

NLCD All Development





902

OSM Unpaved Roads

NLCD Open + Low





For the onroad sector, the on-network (RPD) emissions were spatially allocated differently from other
off-network processes (i.e., RPV, RPP, RPHO, RPS, RPH). Surrogates for on-network processes are based
on AADT data and off network processes (including the off-network idling included in RPHO) are based
on land use surrogates as shown in Table 3-20. Emissions from the extended (i.e., overnight) idling of
trucks were assigned to surrogate 205, which is based on locations of overnight truck parking spaces.

143


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The underlying data for this surrogate were updated during the development of the various 2016
platforms to include additional data sources and corrections based on comments received and these
updates were carried into this platform.

Table 3-20. Off-Network Mobile Source Surrogates

Source type

Source Type name

Surrogate ID

Description

11

Motorcycle

307

NLCD All Development

21

Passenger Car

307

NLCD All Development

31

Passenger Truck

307

NLCD All Development

32

Light Commercial Truck

308

NLCD Low + Med + High

41

Other Bus

306

NLCD Med + High

42

Transit Bus

259

Transit Bus Terminals

43

School Bus

508

Public Schools

51

Refuse Truck

306

NLCD Med + High

52

Single Unit Short-haul Truck

306

NLCD Med + High

53

Single Unit Long-haul Truck

306

NLCD Med + High

54

Motor Home

304

NLCD Open + Low

61

Combination Short-haul Truck

306

NLCD Med + High

62

Combination Long-haul Truck

306

NLCD Med + High

For the oil and gas sources in the np_oilgas sector, the spatial surrogates were updated to those shown
in Table 3-21 using 2022 data consistent with what was used to develop the nonpoint oil and gas
emissions. The exploration and production of oil and gas have generally increased in terms of quantities
and locations over recent years, primarily due to the use of new technologies, such as hydraulic
fracturing. Census-tract, 2-km, and 4-km sub-county Shapefiles were developed, from which the 2020
oil and gas surrogates were generated. All spatial surrogates for np_oilgas are developed based on
known locations of oil and gas activity for year 2022.

The primary activity data source used for the development of the oil and gas spatial surrogates was data
from ENVERUS [formerly Drilling Info (Dl) Desktop's HPDI] database (ENVERUS, 2023). This database
contains well-level location, production, and exploration statistics at the monthly level. Due to a
proprietary agreement with ENVERUS, individual well locations and ancillary production cannot be made
publicly available, but aggregated statistics are allowed. These data were supplemented with data from
state Oil and Gas Commission (OGC) websites (Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee). In cases
when the desired surrogate parameter was not available (e.g., feet drilled), data for an alternative
surrogate parameter (e.g., number of spudded wells) were downloaded and used. Under that
methodology, both completion date and date of first production from HPDI were used to identify wells
completed during 2022. The spatial surrogates were gapfilled using fallback surrogates as shown in Table
3-19. All gapfilling was performed with the Surrogate Tool.

Table 3-21. Spatial Surrogates for Oil and Gas Sources

Surrogate Code

Surrogate Description

669

All Abandoned Wells

144


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Surrogate Code

Surrogate Description

6691

All Abandoned Oil Wells

6692

All Abandoned Gas Wells

6693

All Abandoned CBM Wells

6694

All Abandoned Oil Wells - Plugged

6695

All Abandoned Gas Wells - Plugged

6696

All Abandoned CBM Wells - Plugged

6697

All Abandoned Oil Wells - Unplugged

6698

All Abandoned Gas Wells - Unplugged

670

Spud Count - CBM Wells

671

Spud Count - Gas Wells

672

Gas Production at Oil Wells

673

Oil Production at CBM Wells

674

Unconventional Well Completion Counts

676

Well Count - All Producing

677

Well Count - All Exploratory

678

Completions at Gas Wells

679

Completions at CBM Wells

681

Spud Count - Oil Wells

683

Produced Water at All Wells

685

Completions at Oil Wells

686

Completions at All Wells

687

Feet Drilled at All Wells

689

Gas Produced - Total

691

Well Counts - CBM Wells

692

Spud Count - All Wells

693

Well Count - All Wells

694

Oil Production at Oil Wells

695

Well Count - Oil Wells

696

Gas Production at Gas Wells

697

Oil Production at Gas Wells

698

Well Count - Gas Wells

699

Gas Production at CBM Wells

6831

Produced water at CBM wells

6832

Produced water at gas wells

6833

Produced water at oil wells

Table 3-22 shows the CAP emissions (i.e., NH3, NOx, PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) by sector assigned to each
spatial surrogate.

145


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Table 3-22. Selected 2022 CAP emissions by sector for U.S. Surrogates (short tons in 12US1)

Sector

ID

Description

NH3

NOX

PM2_5

S02

voc

afdust

240

Total Road Miles

0

0

305,537

0

0

afdust

306

NLCD Med + High

0

0

41,167

0

0

afdust

308

NLCD Low + Med + High

0

0

122,726

0

0

afdust

310

NLCD Total Agriculture

0

0

502,702

0

0

afdust

861

Sand and Gravel Mines

0

0

271

0

0

afdust

863

Crushed Stone Mines

0

0

291

0

0

afdust

902

OSM Unpaved Roads

0

0

852,397

0

0

afdust

4012

NPDES 2020 Beef Cattle

0

0

185,956

0

0

afdust

4013

NPDES 2020 Dairy Cattle

0

0

12,408

0

0

afdust

4021

NPDES 2020 Swine

0

0

630

0

0

afdust

4031

NPDES 2020 Chicken

0

0

4,948

0

0

afdust

4071

NPDES2020 Turkey

0

0

1,948

0

0

fertilizer

310

NLCD Total Agriculture

1,671,401

0

0

0

0

livestock

405

FAO 2010 Horse

31,973

0

0

0

2,558

livestock

406

FAO 2010 Sheep

18,425

0

0

0

1,474

livestock

4012

NPDES 2020 Beef Cattle

775,290

0

0

0

62,023

livestock

4013

NPDES 2020 Dairy Cattle

350,829

0

0

0

28,066

livestock

4021

NPDES 2020 Swine

839,869

0

0

0

67,190

livestock

4031

NPDES 2020 Chicken

473,844

0

0

0

37,908

livestock

4041

NPDES 2020 Goat

17,609

0

0

0

1,409

livestock

4071

NPDES2020 Turkey

82,538

0

0

0

6,603

nonpt

100

Population

454

0

0

0

36

nonpt

150

Residential Heating - Natural Gas

47,317

228,596

2,638

1,522

13,491

nonpt

170

Residential Heating - Distillate Oil

1,718

29,360

3,626

738

1,246

nonpt

180

Residential Heating - Coal

0

2

1

7

2

nonpt

190

Residential Heating - LP Gas

136

39,187

156

175

1,539

nonpt

239

Total Road AADT

0

0

0

0

6,536

nonpt

244

All Unrestricted AADT

0

0

0

0

98,151

nonpt

271

NTAD Class 12 3 Railroad Density

0

0

0

0

2,074

nonpt

300

NLCD Low Intensity Development

155

2,315

12,856

180

21,920

nonpt

306

NLCD Med + High

17,744

245,613

372,811

66,676

131,535

nonpt

307

NLCD All Development

0

0

0

0

19

nonpt

308

NLCD Low + Med + High

1,066

176,213

18,723

5,179

10,910

nonpt

310

NLCD Total Agriculture

517

311

504

31

440

nonpt

319

NLCD Crop Land

0

0

95

70

292

nonpt

320

NLCD Forest Land

0

11

31

0

44

nonpt

650

Refineries and Tank Farms

0

0

0

0

98,366

nonpt

711

Airport Areas

0

0

0

0

414

nonpt

801

Port Areas

0

0

0

0

2,351

nonpt

900

OSM Fuel

0

0

0

0

221,575

nonpt

4011

FAO 2010 Large Cattle Operations

0

0

0

0

295,993

nonroad

136

Single and Dual Unit Housing

100

14,634

2,946

38

90,886

146


-------
Sector

ID

Description

NH3

NOX

PM2 5

S02

voc

nonroad

261

NTAD Total Railroad Density

3

1,484

146

1

314

nonroad

304

NLCD Open + Low

6

1,580

140

4

5,554

nonroad

305

NLCD Low + Med

5

869

1,028

2

21,946

nonroad

306

NLCD Med + High

387

155,659

8,689

256

99,729

nonroad

307

NLCD All Development

113

28,711

16,198

44

185,409

nonroad

308

NLCD Low + Med + High

597

202,020

16,431

231

41,323

nonroad

309

NLCD Open + Low + Med

134

21,959

1,310

51

50,916

nonroad

310

NLCD Total Agriculture

355

214,932

14,943

158

23,324

nonroad

320

NLCD Forest Land

15

1,614

379

7

3,423

nonroad

321

NLCD Recreational Land

79

13,629

4,747

28

173,733

nonroad

350

NLCD Water

203

111,936

3,865

95

220,708

nonroad

850

Golf Courses

13

2,143

123

5

6,017

nonroad

860

Mines

2

2,316

210

1

423

nP_oilgas

670

Spud Count - CBM Wells

0

0

0

0

43

nP_oilgas

671

Spud Count - Gas Wells

0

0

0

0

2,275

nP_oilgas

674

Unconventional Well Completion
Counts

51

41,657

742

19

1,877

nP_oilgas

678

Completions at Gas Wells

0

6,122

130

1,773

14,674

np_oilgas

679

Completions at CBM Wells

0

5

0

750

694

np_oilgas

681

Spud Count - Oil Wells

0

0

0

0

28,651

np_oilgas

683

Produced Water at All Wells

0

0

0

0

48

np_oilgas

685

Completions at Oil Wells

0

384

0

2,218

33,301

np_oilgas

687

Feet Drilled at All Wells

0

79,175

1,823

47

2,881

np_oilgas

689

Gas Produced - Total

0

232

26

2

58,012

np_oilgas

691

Well Counts - CBM Wells

0

19,717

469

10

15,442

np_oilgas

692

Spud Count - All Wells

0

15

1

1

1

np_oilgas

694

Oil Production at Oil Wells

0

3,428

0

31,148

801,395

np_oilgas

695

Well Count - Oil Wells

0

170,141

4,207

243,928

668,363

np_oilgas

696

Gas Production at Gas Wells

0

2,738

0

0

422,743

np_oilgas

698

Well Count - Gas Wells

3,771

352,214

4,846

142

471,083

np_oilgas

699

Gas Production at CBM Wells

0

32

4

0

3,816

np_oilgas

6694

All Abandoned Oil Wells - Plugged

0

0

0

0

115

np_oilgas

6695

All Abandoned Gas Wells - Plugged

0

0

0

0

64

np_oilgas

6697

All Abandoned Oil Wells - Unplugged

0

0

0

0

166,197

np_oilgas

6698

All Abandoned Gas Wells - Unplugged

0

0

0

0

14,255

np_oilgas

6831

Produced water at CBM wells

0

0

0

0

1,024

np_oilgas

6832

Produced water at gas wells

0

340

0

0

10,113

np_oilgas

6833

Produced water at oil wells

0

0

0

0

68,474

np_solvents

100

Population

0

0

0

0

1,376,197

np_solvents

240

Total Road Miles

0

0

0

0

43,466

np_solvents

306

NLCD Med + High

0

0

0

0

391,245

np_solvents

307

NLCD All Development

0

0

0

0

235,011

np_solvents

308

NLCD Low + Med + High

0

0

0

0

31,056

np_solvents

310

NLCD Total Agriculture

0

0

0

0

173,739

147


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Sector

ID

Description

NH3

NOX

PM2 5

S02

voc

np_solvents

901

OSM Asphalt Surface

0

0

0

0

339,778

onroad

205

Extended Idle Locations

0

33,669

265

17

2,724

onroad

242

All Restricted AADT

58,506

724,836

18,562

2,918

110,498

onroad

244

All Unrestricted AADT

119,030

1,031,723

41,897

5,264

301,493

onroad

259

Transit Bus Terminals

20

1,458

30

1

468

onroad

304

NLCD Open + Low

0

467

13

0

2,532

onroad

306

NLCD Med + High

1,217

97,909

2,136

75

22,427

onroad

307

NLCD All Development

5,938

157,433

6,858

444

515,072

onroad

308

NLCD Low + Med + High

292

16,565

482

27

26,500

onroad

508

Public Schools

19

1,984

59

1

392

openburn

135

Detached Housing

0

16,359

81,108

2,724

18,946

openburn

300

NLCD Low Intensity Development

2,704

1,113

4,159

226

4,514

openburn

307

NLCD All Development

76,463

28,172

126,918

10,917

81,324

rail

261

NTAD Total Railroad Density

16

26,427

763

18

1,249

rail

271

NTAD Class 12 3 Railroad Density

287

430,178

10,685

324

17,539

rwc

135

Detached Housing

6,875

9,428

135,997

3,348

126,771

rwc

137

Single + Dual Unit+ Manufactured
Housing

15,722

35,166

312,817

8,545

324,110

3.4.2	Allocation method for airport-related sources in the U.S.

There are numerous airport-related emission sources in the NEI, such as aircraft, airport ground support
equipment, and jet refueling. The modeling platform includes the aircraft and airport ground support
equipment emissions as point sources. For the modeling platform, the EPA used the SMOKE "area-to-
point" approach for only jet refueling in the nonpt sector. The following SCCs use this approach:
2501080050 and 2501080100 (petroleum storage at airports), and 2810040000 (aircraft/rocket engine
firing and testing). The ARTOPNT file that lists the nonpoint sources to locate using point data was
unchanged from the 2005-based platform.

3.4.3	Surrogates for Canada and Mexico emission inventories

The surrogates for Canada to spatially allocate the Canadian emissions are based on the 2020 Canadian
inventories and associated data. The spatial surrogate data came from ECCC, along with cross
references. The shapefiles they provided were used in the Surrogate Tool (previously referenced) to
create spatial surrogates. The Canadian surrogates used for this platform are listed in Table 3-23. The
Shapefiles used to compute these surrogates and some configuration information are shown in Table
3-24. Note that the name of most Data Shapefiles have been abbreviated to shorten the table. The
complete names and additional details on surrogate computation for Canada and Mexico are available in
the file Surrogate_specifications_2022_platform_US_Can_Mex.xlsx that is posted in the reports folder
for this platform.

Mexico surrogates were updated for the 2021 EMP. The data source for the Mexico population
surrogate is the INEGI National Geostatistical Framework's Censo de Poblacion y Vivienda 2020 based on
the 2020 GPW v4 (see https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/biblioteca/ficha.html?upc=889463807469 ).
Other data sources used are Sistema Nacional de Informacion Estadistic y Geografica (SNIEG), US
Department of Transportation's (DOT) North American Rail Network Lines, and US DOT's Bureau of

148


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Transportation Statistics Border Crossing Data. The Shapefiles and some configuration information used
to develop the Mexico surrogates are shown in Table 3-25. The Data Shapefile for all Mexico surrogates
is areas_geoestadisticas_municipales_ll and the Data Attribute is FIPS. Most of the CAP emissions
allocated to the Mexico and Canada surrogates are shown in Table 3-26.

Table 3-23. Canadian Spatial Surrogates

Code

Canadian Surrogate Description

Code

Description

100

Population

925

Manufacturing and Assembly

101

total dwelling

926

Distribution and Retail (no petroleum)

102

urban dwelling

927

Commercial Services

103

rural dwelling

933

Rail-Passenger

104

capped total dwelling

934

Rail-Freight

105

capped meat cooking dwelling

935

Rail-Yard

106

ALL INDUST

940

PAVED ROADS NEW

113

Forestry and logging

945

Commercial Marine Vessels

116

Total Resources

946

Construction and mining

200

Urban Primary Road Miles

948

Forest

210

Rural Primary Road Miles

949

Combination of Dwelling

211

Oil and Gas Extraction

951

Wood Consumption Percentage

212

Mining except oil and gas

952

Residential Fuel Wood Combustion (PIRD)

220

Urban Secondary Road Miles

955

UN PAVED ROADS AND TRAILS

221

Total Mining

960

TOTBEEF

222

Utilities

961

80110 Broilers

230

Rural Secondary Road Miles

962

80111_Cattle_dairy_and_Fleifer

233

Total Land Development

963

80112_Cattle_non-Dairy

240

capped population

964

80113_Laying_hens_and_Pullets

308

Food manufacturing

965

80114 Florses

321

Wood product manufacturing

966

80115_Sheep_and_Lamb

323

Printing and related support activities

967

80116 Swine



Petroleum and coal products





324

manufacturing

968

80117_Turkeys



Plastics and rubber products





326

manufacturing

969

80118 Goat



Non-metallic mineral product





327

manufacturing

970

TOTPOUL

331

Primary Metal Manufacturing

971

80119 Buffalo

340

Construction - Oil and Gas

972

80120_Llama_and_Alpacas

350

Water

973

80121 Deer



Petroleum product wholesaler-





412

distributors

974

80122 Elk

448

clothing and clothing accessories stores

975

80123 Wild boars



Waste management and remediation





562

services

976

80124 Rabbit



SCL:12003 Petroleum Liquids





601

Transportation (PIRD)

977

80125_Mink

149


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Code

Canadian Surrogate Description

Code

Description



SCL12007 Oil Sands In-Situ Extraction





602

and Processing (PIRD)

978

80126 Fox



SCL12010 Light Medium Crude Oil





603

Production (PIRD)

980

TOTSWIN

604

SCL12011 Well Drilling (PIRD)

981

Harvest Annual

605

SCL12012 Well Servicing (PIRD)

982

Harvest Perennial

606

SCL12013 Well Testing (PIRD)

983

Synthfert_Annual

607

SCL12014 Natural Gas Production (PIRD)

984

Syn thfert_ Perennial

608

SCL12015 Natural Gas Processing (PIRD)

985

Tillage_Annual



SCL12016 Heavy Crude Oil Cold





609

Production (PIRD)

990

TOTFERT



SCL12018 Disposal and Waste Treatment





610

(PIRD)

996

urban area



SCL12019 Accidents and Equipment





611

Failures (PIRD)

1251

OFFR TOTFERT



SCL12020 Natural Gas Transmission and





612

Storage(PIRD)

1252

OFFR MINES

651

MEIT C1C2 Anchored

1253

OFFR Other Construction not Urban

652

MEIT C1C2 Underway

1254

OFFR Commercial Services

653

MEIT C1C2 Berthed

1255

OFFR Oil Sands Mines

661

MEIT C3 Anchored

1256

OFFR Wood industries CANVEC

662

MEIT C3 Underway

1257

OFFR UNPAVED ROADS RURAL

663

MEIT C3 Berthed

1258

OFFR Utilities

901

AIRPORT

1259

OFFR total dwelling

902

Military LTO

1260

OFFR water

903

Commercial LTO

1261

OFFR ALL INDUST

904

General Aviation LTO

1262

OFFR Oil and Gas Extraction

905

Air Taxi LTO

1263

OFFR ALLROADS

921

Commercial Fuel Combustion

1264

OFFR AIRPORT



TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL AND





923

GOVERNEMNT

1265

OFFR RAILWAY

924

Primary Industry





Table 3-24. Shapefiles and Attributes used to Compute Canadian Spatial Surrogates

Code

Surrogate

Data Shapefile

Data

Attribute

Weight Shapefile

Weight
Attribute

100

Population

gPr_gda

pruid

da_popdwell_100m_nolakes
lnovl7

Pop

101

total dwelling

gPr_gda

pruid

da_popdwell_100m_nolakes
lnovl7

Urdwell

102

urban dwelling

gPr_gda

pruid

da_popdwell_100m_nolakes
lnovl7

Uadwell

103

rural dwelling

gPr_gda

pruid

da_popdwell_100m_nolakes
lnovl7

Radwell

104

capped total dwelling

gPr_gda

pruid

da_popdwell_100m_nolakes
_lnovl7

CAP_URDWEL

150


-------
Code

Surrogate

Data Shapefile

Data

Attribute

Weight Shapefile

Weight
Attribute

105

capped meat cooking dwelling

gpr

pruid

da_SimP_100m_pop_dwellJ
ul2014

Cap_Dwell

106

ALL INDUST

prov2006

pruid

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

ALL INDUST

111

Farms

prov2006

pruid

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

FARMS

113

Forestry and logging

prov2006

pruid

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

FORLOG

116

Total Resources

prov2006

pruid

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

TOTRESOURC

1251

OFFR TOTFERT

gcd

CDID

naesi fert

TOTFERT

1252

OFFR MINES

gcd

CDID

mine

MINES

1253

OFFR Other Construction not
Urban

gcd

CDID

construction other

TOTAL

1254

OFFR Commercial Services

gcd

CDID

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

COMSER

1255

OFFR Oil Sands Mines

gcd

CDID

OS MinePit D v2



1256

OFFR Wood industries CANVEC

gcd

CDID

wood industries

WOOD

1257

OFFR UNPAVED ROADS RURAL

gcd

CDID

unpaved_ur



1258

OFFR Utilities

gcd

CDID

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

UTILITIES

1259

OFFR total dwelling

gcd

CDID

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

DATDWELL20

1260

OFFR water

gcd

CDID

lulOO valid



1261

OFFR ALL INDUST

gcd

CDID

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

ALL INDUST

1262

OFFR Oil and Gas Extraction

gcd

CDID

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

OILGASEXTR

1263

OFFR ALLROADS

gcd

CDID

allroads



1264

OFFR AIRPORT

gcd

CDID

offroad_osm_airport_locs_s
pring2017

Movements

1265

OFFR RAILWAY

gcd

CDID

sh p_ra i lway_ca n vec Ju 117_v
2

LENGTH

200

Urban Primary Road Miles

gcd_ON4

CDID

NRN_CA_Simp2_16Apr2016_
sphere

Classl

210

Rural Primary Road Miles

gcd_ON4

CDID

NRN_CA_Simp2_16Apr2016_
sphere

Class2

211

Oil and Gas Extraction

prov2006

pruid

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

OILGASEXTR

212

Mining except oil and gas

prov2006

pruid

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

MINING2

215

Oil Sands Mines

prov2006

pruid

OS MinePit D v2



216

Oil Sands Tailing Ponds

prov2006

pruid

OS_WetTailing_D_2015



217

Oil Sands Plants

prov2006

Pruid

OS PlantSite D 2015



220

Urban Secondary Road Miles

gcd_ON4

CDID

NRN_CA_Simp2_16Apr2016_
sphere

Class3

221

Total Mining

prov2006

Pruid

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff 100m noLake

TOTALMI3

222

Utilities

prov2006

Pruid

da2006_pop_labour_SimP_
MaxOff_100m_noLake

UTILITIES

151


-------






Data



Weight

Code

Surrogate

Data Shapefile

Attribute

Weight Shapefile

Attribute









NRN_CA_Simp2_16Apr2016_



230

Rural Secondary Road Miles

gcd_ON4

CDID

sphere

Class4









da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



233

Total Land Development

prov2006

Pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

TOTLND









da_popdwell_100m_nolakes



240

capped population

gcd_ON4

CDID

lnovl7

CAPURPOP









da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



308

Food manufacturing

prov2006

Pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

FOODMANU









da2006_SimplifyP_250m_sp



321

Wood product manufacturing

prov2006

Pruid

here_treesa_Clip

WOODMANU



Printing and related support





da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



323

activities

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

PRINTSUPRT



Petroleum and coal products





da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



324

manufacturing

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

PETCOLMANU



Plastics and rubber products





da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



326

manufacturing

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

PLASTCMANU



Non-metallic mineral product





da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



327

manufacturing

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

MINERLMANU









da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



331

Primary Metal Manufacturing

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

METALMANU









loc land UOG2015 CO v3



340

Construction - Oil and Gas

gPr_gda

pruid

Que_NB_NS



350

Water

coast

pruid

CONT42_pop_water_Clip_b

Pop



Petroleum product wholesaler-





da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



412

distributors

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

PETPRWSL



Building material and supplies





da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



416

wholesaler-distributors

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

BUILDPRWSL









da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



447

Gasoline stations

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

GASSTOR



clothing and clothing





da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



448

accessories stores

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

CLOTHSTOR









da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



482

Rail transportation

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

RAILTRANS



Waste management and





da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



562

remediation services

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

WASTEMGMT









offroad_osm_airport_locs_s



901

AIRPORT

gcd

CDID

pring2017

Movements









aviation_runways_spring201



902

Military LTO

surg_2017

FAKEFIPS

7

Military









aviation_runways_spring201



903

Commercial LTO

surg_2017

FAKEFIPS

7

Commercial









aviation_runways_spring201



904

General Aviation LTO

surg_2017

FAKEFIPS

7

General Av









Airport_movements_2006_



905

Air Taxi LTO

prov2006

pruid

MultiRingBuffer

SCC2275060









da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



921

Commercial Fuel Combustion

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

COMFUEL



TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL AND





da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



923

GOVERNEMNT

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

TOTINSTGOV









da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



924

Primary Industry

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff_100m_noLake

PRIM1

152


-------






Data



Weight

Code

Surrogate

Data Shapefile

Attribute

Weight Shapefile

Attribute









da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



925

Manufacturing and Assembly

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

MANASSEM



Distribution and Retail (no





da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



926

petroleum)

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

DISRET









da2006_pop_labour_SimP_



927

Commercial Services

prov2006

pruid

MaxOff 100m noLake

COMSER









sh p_ra i lway_ca n vec Ju 117_v



933

Rail-Passenger

gPr_gda

pruid

2

Passenger









sh p_ra i lway_ca n vec Ju 117_v



934

Rail-Freight

gPr_gda

pruid

2

Fret









sh p_ra i lway_ca n vec Ju 117_v



935

Rail-Yard

gPr_gda

pruid

2

Yard









NRN_CA_Simp2_16Apr2016_



940

PAVED ROADS NEW

gpr

fips

sphere

PAVEDRD

942

UNPAVED ROADS

prov2006

pruid

unpaved4



945

Commercial Marine Vessels

lowmedjetjl

CLASS

marine

S02









MERGE: 0.5*Mining except











oil and gas+0.5*Total Land



946

Construction and mining





Development











MERGE 0.34*Total Resources





Agriculture Construction and





+ 0.66 * Construction and



947

mining





mining



948

Forest

prov2006

pruid

treesa valid











MERGE: 0.20*urban











dwelling+0.80* rural



949

Combination of Dwelling





dwelling





Wood Consumption





da2006_SimP_100m_WoodC



951

Percentage

gpr

fips

on_lAugl4

WoodComp



UNPAVED ROADS AND TRAIL









955

S

prov2006

pruid

unpaved5



960

TOTBEEF

prov2006

pruid

naesi livestk

TOTBEEF

970

TOTPOUL

prov2006

pruid

naesi livestk

TOTPOULT

980

TOTSWIN

prov2006

pruid

naesi livestk

TOTSWIN E

990

TOTFERT

prov2006

pruid

naesi fert

TOTFERT

996

urban area

prov2006

pruid

ua2001











animal nh3 to agri sic 801



961

80110 Broilers

gPr_gda

pruid

10 valid

QUANTITY



80111_Cattle_dairy_and_Heife





animal nh3 to agri sic 801



962

r

gPr_gda

pruid

11 valid

QUANTITY









animal nh3 to agri sic 801



963

80112_Cattle_non-Dairy

gPr_gda

pruid

12 valid

QUANTITY



80113_Laying_hens_and_Pulle





animal nh3 to agri sic 801



964

ts

gPr_gda

pruid

13 valid

QUANTITY









animal nh3 to agri sic 801



965

80114 Horses

gPr_gda

pruid

14 valid

QUANTITY









animal nh3 to agri sic 801



966

80115_S h ee p_a n d_La m b

gPr_gda

pruid

15 valid

QUANTITY









animal nh3 to agri sic 801



967

80116_Swine

gPr_gda

pruid

16_valid

QUANTITY

153


-------






Data











Weight

Code

Surrogate

Data Shapefile

Attribute

Weight Shapefile





Attribute









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



968

80117_Turkeys

gPr_gda

pruid

17 valid









QUANTITY









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



969

80118 Goat

gPr_gda

pruid

18 valid









QUANTITY









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



971

80119 Buffalo

gPr_gda

pruid

19 valid









QUANTITY









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



972

80120_Uama_and_Alpacas

gPr_gda

pruid

20 valid









QUANTITY









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



973

80121 Deer

gPr_gda

pruid

21 valid









QUANTITY









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



974

80122 Elk

gPr_gda

pruid

22 valid









QUANTITY









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



975

80123 Wild boars

gPr_gda

pruid

23 valid









QUANTITY









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



976

80124 Rabbit

gPr_gda

pruid

24 valid









QUANTITY









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



977

80125 Mink

gPr_gda

pruid

25 valid









QUANTITY









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



978

80126 Fox

gPr_gda

pruid

26 valid









QUANTITY









animal nh3

to

agri

sic

801



979

80127 Mules and Asses

gPr_gda

pruid

27 valid









QUANTITY









h a rvest_p m 10_An n u a l_to_a



981

Harvest Annual

gPr_gda

pruid

gri_slc_valid









QUANTITY









h a rvest_p m 10_Pe re n n i a l_to



982

Harvest Perennial

gPr_gda

pruid

_agri_slc_valid







QUANTITY









synth_fert_nh3_Annual_to_a



983

Synthfert_Annual

gPr_gda

pruid

gri_slc_valid









QUANTITY









synth_fert_nh3_Perennial_t



984

Synthfert_Perennial

gPr_gda

pruid

o_agri_slc_valic







QUANTITY









tillage_pmlO_Annual_to_agr



985

Tillage_Annual

gPr_gda

pruid

i sic valid









QUANTITY



SCL:12003 Petroleum Liquids

















601

Transportation (PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scl 12003 valid











SCL:12007 Oil Sands In-Situ



















Extraction and Processing

















602

(PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scl 12007 valid







NONE



SCL:12010 Light Medium Crude

















603

Oil Production (PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scll2010 valid







NONE

604

SCL:12011 Well Drilling (PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scll2011 valid

NONE



SCL:12012 Well Servicing

















605

(PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scll2012 valid







NONE

606

SCL:12013 Well Testing (PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scll2013 valid

NONE



SCL:12014 Natural Gas

















607

Production (PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scll2014 valid







NONE



SCL:12015 Natural Gas

















608

Processing (PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scll2015 valid







NONE



SCL:12016 Heavy Crude Oil

















609

Cold Production (PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scll2016 valid







NONE



SCL:12018 Disposal and Waste

















610

Treatment (PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scll2018_valid







NONE

154


-------
Code

Surrogate

Data Shapefile

Data

Attribute

Weight Shapefile

Weight
Attribute

611

SCL:12019 Accidents and
Equipment Failures (PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scll2019 valid

NONE

612

SCL:12020 Natural Gas
Transmission and Storage
(PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scll2020

NONE

952

Residential Fuel Wood
Combustion (PIRD)

gPr_gda

pruid

scl20401 valid

NONE

651

MEITC1C2 Anchored

lowmedjetjl

CLASS

MEIT 2280002101 2018

Fuel

652

MEITC1C2 Underway

lowmedjetjl

CLASS

MEIT 2280002202 2018

Fuel

653

MEITC1C2 Berthed

lowmedjetjl

CLASS

MEIT 2280002301 2018

Fuel

661

MEITC3 Anchored

lowmedjetjl

CLASS

MEIT 2280003101 2018

Fuel

662

MEIT C3 Underway

lowmedjetjl

CLASS

MEIT 2280003200 2018

Fuel

663

MEITC3 Berthed

lowmedjetjl

CLASS

MEIT_2280003301_2018

Fuel

Table 3-25. Shapefiles and Attributes used to Compute Mexican Spatial Surrogates

Code

SURROGATE

WEIGHT SHAPEFILE

WEIGHT
ATTRIBUTE

10

MEX Population

mex_population_2020

gridcode_Y

22

MEXTotal Road Miles

mex roads

NONE

24

MEX Total Railroads Miles

mex railroads

NONE

26

MEX Total Agriculture

mex_agriculture

NONE

36

MEX Commercial plus Industrial Land

mex com ind land

NONE

44

MEX Airports Area

m ex_a i rports_a rea

NONE

45

MEX Airports Point

mex_airports_point

NONE

48

MEX Brick Kilns

mex brick kilns

NONE

50

MEX Border Crossings

mex_border_crossings

SUM_Value

Table 3-26. 2022 CAP Emissions Allocated to Mexican and Canadian Spatial Surrogates for 12US1

(short tons)

Code

Mexican or Canadian Surrogate
Description

NH3

NO*

PM2.5

SO2

voc

11

MEX Population

26,149

93,951

8,245

7,833

178,980

22

MEX Total Road Miles

2,887

310,214

14,588

6,483

76,211

24

MEX Total Railroads Miles

0

22,455

498

198

900

26

MEX Total Agriculture

137,457

11,648

13,703

13,570

2,370

36

MEX Commercial plus Industrial Land

44

5,532

2,531

26

295,777

44

MEX Airports Area

0

2,955

61

315

1,832

48

MEX Brick Kilns

0

227

3,692

151

182

50

MEX Mobile sources - Border Crossing

4

86

3

0

65

100

CAN Population

710

57

225

17

4,025

101

CAN total dwelling

0

0

0

0

109,016

104

CAN Capped Total Dwelling

305

31,578

2,383

1,928

1,620

106

CAN ALLJNDUST





596





155


-------
Code

Mexican or Canadian Surrogate
Description

NH3

NOx

PM2.5

SO2

voc

113

CAN Forestry and logging

83

627

2,934

15

2,715

200

CAN Urban Primary Road Miles

1,590

75,668

2,697

209

7,406

210

CAN Rural Primary Road Miles

608

40,578

1,422

89

2,995

212

CAN Mining except oil and gas

0

0

1,785

0

0

220

CAN Urban Secondary Road Miles

2,985

120,376

5,476

406

19,742

221

CAN Total Mining

0

0

13,564

0

0

222

CAN Utilities

0

1,998

2,751

32

89

230

CAN Rural Secondary Road Miles

1,613

75,161

2,728

211

7,997

240

CAN Total Road Miles

345

45,969

1,175

41

82,324

308

CAN Food manufacturing

0

0

17,199

0

5,233

321

CAN Wood product manufacturing

513

1,677

591

213

8,464

323

CAN Printing and related support
activities

0

0

0

0

20,852

324

CAN Petroleum and coal products
manufacturing

0

1,056

1,481

439

6,751

326

CAN Plastics and rubber products
manufacturing

0

0

0

0

21,858

327

CAN Non-metallic mineral product
manufacturing

0

0

7,206

0

0

331

CAN Primary Metal Manufacturing

0

148

5,247

28

62

412

CAN Petroleum product wholesaler-
distributors

0

0

0

0

37,775

448

CAN clothing and clothing accessories
stores

0

0

0

0

178

562

CAN Waste management and
remediation services

2,707

1,230

2,300

2,159

16,100

601

CAN SCL12003 Petroleum Liquids
Transportation (PIRD)

0

0

12

154

6,042

602

CAN SCL12007 Oil Sands In-Situ
Extraction and Processing (PIRD)

0

0

0

0

110

603

CAN SCL12010 Light Medium Crude
Oil Production (PIRD)

0

0

0

0

2

604

CAN SCL12011 Well Drilling (PIRD)

0

0

0

607

658

605

CAN SCL12012 Well Servicing (PIRD)

0

0

0

68

73

606

CAN SCL12013 Well Testing (PIRD)

0

0

0

0

0

607

CAN SCL12014 Natural Gas
Production (PIRD)

0

28

1

0

191

608

CAN SCL12015 Natural Gas
Processing (PIRD)

0

0

0

0

0

611

CAN SCL:12019 Accidents and
Equipment Failures (PIRD)

0

0

0

0

90,229

612

CAN SCL12020 Natural Gas
Transmission and Storage (PIRD)

1

671

54

11

396

901

CAN Airport

0

98

9

0

0

156


-------
Code

Mexican or Canadian Surrogate
Description

NH3

NOx

PM2.5

SO2

voc

921

CAN Commercial Fuel Combustion

190

21,587

2,373

435

940

923

CAN TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL AND
GOVERNEMNT

0

0

0

0

14,522

924

CAN Primary Industry

0

0

0

0

33,308

925

CAN Manufacturing and Assembly

0

0

0

0

70,606

926

CAN Distribution and Retail (no
petroleum)

0

0

0

0

6,666

927

CAN Commercial Services

0

0

0

0

30,828

933

CAN Rail-Passenger

1

3,089

63

1

115

934

CAN Rail-Freight

48

76,567

1,530

43

3,389

935

CAN Rail-Yard

1

4,536

95

1

276

940

CAN Paved Roads New

0

0

26,017

0

0

946

CAN Construction and Mining

44

2,842

163

281

41

951

CAN Wood Consumption Percentage

1,061

11,794

71,798

1,685

100,154

955

CAN U NPAVED_ROADS_AND_TRAILS

0

0

433,847

0

0

961

CAN 80110_Broilers

13,453

0

115

0

12,782

962

CAN 80111_Cattle_dairy_and_Heifer

61,989

0

276

0

40,501

963

CAN 80112_Cattle_non-Dairy

177,740

0

884

0

42,860

964

CAN 80113_Laying_hens_and_Pullets

10,085

0

40

0

10,592

965

CAN 80114_Horses

3,155

0

19

0

1,320

966

CAN 80115_Sheep_and_Lamb

2,278

0

6

0

170

967

CAN 80116_Swine

64,225

0

824

0

9,945

968

CAN 80117_Turkeys

5,215

0

41

0

4,507

969

CAN 80118_Goat

1,806

0

2

0

135

971

CAN 80119_Buffalo

2,258

0

6

0

517

972

CAN 80120_Llama_and_Alpacas

118

0

0

0

0

973

CAN 80121_Deer

20

0

0

0

0

974

CAN 80122_Elk

19

0

0

0

0

975

CAN 80123_Wild boars

37

0

0

0

0

976

CAN 80124_Rabbit

78

0

0

0

1

977

CAN 80125_Mink

287

0

0

0

951

978

CAN 80126_Fox

4

0

0

0

3

981

CAN Harvest_Annual

0

0

24,824

0

0

983

CAN Synthfert_Annual

164,425

3,513

2,111

5,807

127

985

CAN Tillage_Annual

0

0

106,806

0

0

996

CAN urban_area

0

0

3,716

0

0

1251

CAN OFFR_TOTFERT

84

59,946

4,056

57

113

1252

CAN OFFR_MINES

1

573

40

1

0

1253

CAN OFFR Other Construction not
Urban

68

37,617

4,378

46

231

1254

CAN OFFR Commercial Services

47

16,663

2,499

40

11,046

1255

CAN OFFR Oil Sands Mines

0

0

0

0

0

157


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Code

Mexican or Canadian Surrogate
Description

NH3

NOx

PM2.5

SO2

voc

1256

CAN OFFR Wood industries CANVEC

9

3,245

257

7

86

1257

CAN OFFR Unpaved Roads Rural

24

10,275

642

21

934

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4 Analytic Year Emissions Inventories and Approaches

The emission inventories for the analytic year 2026 have been developed using projection methods that
are specific to the type of emissions source. Analytic year emissions are projected from the base year
either by running models to estimate analytic year emissions from specific types of emission sources
(e.g., EGUs, and onroad and nonroad mobile sources), or for other types of sources by adjusting the base
year emissions according to the best estimate of changes expected to occur in the intervening years
(e.g., non-EGU point and nonpoint sources). The types of changes accounted for in the analytic year
inventories include changes in expected activity data for the sector (e.g, VMT for onroadway sources)
and changes in emission rates per unit of activity between the years. Emission rates can be predicted to
change due to the adoption of improved processes, changes in the fuels used, market-driven impacts, or
on-the-books regulations. In this platform, on-the-books federal and some state regulations that
impacted CAPs that were on-the-books as of April 2024 are reflected.

For some sectors, the same emissions are used in the base and analytic years, such as biogenic, all fire
sectors, and fertilizer. Emissions for these sectors are held constant in future years because the base
year meteorological data are also used for the future year air quality model runs, and emissions for
these sectors are highly correlated with meteorological conditions. For the remaining sectors, rules and
specific legal obligations that go into effect in the intervening years, along with changes in activity for
the sector, are considered when possible. For sectors that were projected, the methods used to project
those sectors to the analytic year(s) for this platform are summarized in Table 4-1.

Table 4-1. Overview of projection methods by sector for the analytic years

Platform Sector:
abbreviation

Description of Projection Methods for Analytic Year Inventories

EGU units:
ptegu

For 2026, an engineering analysis approach was used to develop emissions based
on the most recently available measured emissions. More information on this
sector including a list of included rules is provided in Section 4.1.

Point source oil and
gas:

pt_oilgas

The production-related sources were grown from 2022 to 2026 based on growth
factors derived from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2023 data for oil, natural
gas, or a combination thereof. The grown emissions were then controlled to
account for the impacts of New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for oil and
gas sources, process heaters, natural gas turbines, and reciprocating internal
combustion engines (RICE). Known closures were also applied to the 2022
pt_oilgas sources. See Section 4.2.3.8 and several subsections of Section 4.2.4 for
more details.

Airports:
airports

Point source airport emissions were grown from 2022 to 2026 using factors
derived from the 2023 Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) released in January 2024 (see
https://www.faa.gov/data research/aviation/taf/). Factors outside of a specific

range were set to state average factors. Analytic year emissions for the ATL
airport were provided by the state of Georgia. See Section 4.2.3.2 for more
details.

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Platform Sector:
abbreviation

Description of Projection Methods for Analytic Year Inventories

Remaining non-EGU

point:

ptnonipm

2022 emissions were projected to 2026 using factors derived from AEO2023.
Controls were applied to account for relevant NSPS for RICE, gas turbines, and
process heaters. Emissions were reduced to account for NESHAP rules related to
Hazardous Organic Compounds, Organic Liquids Distribution, and Taconite.
Known closures were applied to the 2022 ptnonipm sources. Railyards are grown
using the projection factors from the rail sector. Additional state-specific controls
were applied. See Section 4.2.3.9 and several subsections of Section 4.2.4 for
more details.

Category 1, 2 CMV:
cmv_clc2

Category 1 and category 2 (C1C2) CMV emissions sources outside of California
were projected to 2026 based on factors derived from the Freight Analysis
Framework version 5. See the Category 3 CMV documentation (EPA, 2024a) for
more details on the development of the projection factors for both C1C2 and C3
CMV vessels. See Section 4.2.3.3 for more details.

Category 3 CMV:
cmv_c3

Category 3 (C3) CMV emissions were projected to 2026 based on factors derived
from the Freight Analysis Framework version 5. An additional adjustment to NOx
was made to account for the penetration of cleaner engines over time based on
an extrapolation of trends from recent ship registry data sets. See the Category 3
CMV documentation (EPA, 2024a) for more details on the development of the
factors. See Section 4.2.3.4 for more details.

Locomotives:
rail

Rail emissions were projected based on factors derived for categories of
locomotives based on AEO (fuel use) growth rates including some adjustments.
See Section 4.2.3.10 for more details.

Area fugitive dust:
afdust

Paved road dust was grown to 2026 levels based on the growth in VMT from
2022. Emissions for the remainder of the sector were based on a combination of
employment projections and livestock projection data. See Section 4.2.3.1 for
more details.

Livestock: livestock

Livestock were projected from 2022 to 2026 using factors derived from
projections of animal counts from the Greenhouse Gas Inventory Tool versus the
base year animal counts. See Section 4.2.3.5 for more details.

Nonpoint source oil
and gas:
np_oilgas

Exploration-related sources were based on a multi-year average of 2017 through
2019 exploration data with NSPS controls applied, where applicable. Production-
related emissions were projected from 2022 to 2026 based on factors generated
from AEO2023 reference case. Based on the SCC, factors related to oil, gas, or
combined growth were used. Coalbed methane SCCs were projected
independently. Controls were then applied to account for NSPS for oil and gas
and RICE. See Section 4.2.3.9, Section 4.2.4.land Section 4.2.4.2 for more details.

Residential Wood

Combustion:

rwc

RWC emissions were held constant at 2022 levels for 2026. See Section 4.2.3.11
for more details.

Solvents:
np_solvents

Emissions were projected from 2022 to 2026 by multiplying base year emissions
by factors based on the ratio of the 'growth surrogate' for the analytic year
divided by the value for the base year. Growth surrogates were based on human
population, employment projections, and VMT projections. Controls were applied
to reflect various national rules. State-specific controls were applied. See Section
4.2.3.7 and Section 4.2.4.6 for more details.

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Platform Sector:
abbreviation

Description of Projection Methods for Analytic Year Inventories

Remaining nonpoint:
nonpt

Projected base year to 2026 by multiplying base year emissions by factors derived
from AEO 2023, human population projections, and employment projections.
Controls were applied to reflect NSPS rules for reciprocating internal combustion
engines (RICE). State-specific controls were also applied. See Section 4.2.3.6 and
Section 4.2.4.2 for more details.

Nonroad:
nonroad

Outside of California, MOVES4 was run for 2026. The fuels used are specific to the
analytic year, but the meteorological data represented the year 2022. Adjusted
growth factors were used for North Carolina nonroad industrial based on
information from NC. For CA 2016 platform inventories were used for 2026. See
Section 4.3.1 for more details.

Onroad:
on road

VMT was projected from 2022 to 2026 using projection factors based on
AEO2023 projections and applied nationally by fuel type and broad vehicle type
(light duty, medium duty for buses and single unit trucks, and heavy duty for
combination trucks). Diesel light duty cars were held flat in projections, but diesel
light duty trucks were projected using the AEO. Light duty VMT projections also
incorporated a county-level adjustment based on projected human population
trends, so that counties expected to grow more than the national average in
population receive a corresponding increase in VMT for those counties, and vice
versa. Four states (NJ, NY, NC, and Wl) provided VMT for each analytic year.
Additionally, projection factors were developed and applied to estimate the
impact of federal rules that are on the books but were not included in MOVES4
for all states. See Section 4.3.2 for more details.

Onroad California:
onroad_ca_adj

For California, emissions were provided by CARB for 2026. Additionally, projection
factors were developed and applied to estimate the impact of federal rules that
are on the books. See Section 4.3.2 for more details.

Canada Area Fugitive
dust:

canada_afdust

Area fugitive dust emissions were provided by ECCC for 2026. Mexico emissions
are not included in this sector. See Section 4.3.3.1 for more details.

Canada Point
Fugitive dust:
canadajptdust

Point source fugitive dust emissions were provided by ECCC for 2026. Mexico
emissions are not included in this sector. See Section 4.3.3.1 for more details.

Canada and Mexico
point sources:
canmex_point

Canada point source emissions were provided by ECCC for 2026. Mexico point
sources are held constant from the base year 2022 inventories. See Section
4.3.3.2 for more details.

Canada and Mexico
ag:

canmexjag

Canada agricultural emissions were provided by ECCC for 2026. Mexico
agricultural sources are held constant from the base year 2022 inventories. See
Section 4.3.3.2 for more details.

Canada oil and gas
2D:

canada_og2D

Low-level point oil and gas sources from the ECCC 2026 point source inventories.
See Section 4.3.3.2 for more details.

Canada and Mexico
nonpoint (except ag)
and nonroad:
canmex area

Canada nonpoint and nonroad emissions were provided by ECCC for 2026.

Mexico nonpoint and nonroad sources are held constant from the base year 2022
inventories. See Section 4.3.3.3 for more details.

Other non-NEI
onroad sources:
canada_onroad

For Canadian mobile onroad sources, analytic year inventories used Environment
and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) provided emissions for 2026. See Section
4.3.3.4 for more details.

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Platform Sector:
abbreviation

Description of Projection Methods for Analytic Year Inventories

Other non-NEI
onroad sources:
mexico_onroad

Monthly onroad mobile inventories were developed at municipio resolution
based on an interpolation of runs of MOVES-Mexico done for the 2016 platform
for 2026. See Section 4.3.3.4 for more details.

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4.1 EGU Point Source Projections (ptegu)

The analytic year EGU emissions inventories relied on Engineering Analysis for 2026.

Details on the development of the analytic year EGU emissions are as follows:

•	EPA's 2026 Engineering Analysis emissions developed with the most recent data available as of
summer 2024:

•	The starting point was 2023 NOx, S02, and Hg emissions reported to Clean Air and Power
Division (CAPD): https://campd.epa.gov/

•	Known unit retirements, coal to gas conversions, control retrofits, unit specific rate
adjustments due to BART or state RACT rules, and new unit construction from the January
2024 NEEDS (which is equivalent to the data in the June 2024 NEEDS database).

•	PM, VOC, NH3, and CO emissions were calculated using NEI 2022 and Energy Information
Administration (EIA) 860/923 emissions factors and CAPD generation data.

•	No additional Good Neighbor Plan (GNP) related changes reflected in 2026 inventory. All but
two states were under their respective state budgets in 2023; these two states were under
their assurance levels in 2023.

•	The 2026 engineering analysis data included emissions according to ORIS and CAPD IDs. The
Engineering Analysis units were matched to EIS facility and unit IDs using existing CAPD-EIS
matches from the 2022 base year point inventory and NEEDS database. For units with a CAPD
-EIS match, units from 2022 were retained, with emissions adjusted to match the engineering
analysis. All units from 2022 which were not matched in the engineering analysis were
carried forward to 2026 with the same emissions, except for units listed as retired in the 2026
analysis. For all units in the 2026 analysis which were not matched to a unit in the 2022 base
year inventory, new units were created with new point source IDs, SCCs for natural gas EGUs,
and default stack parameters.

Data files and summaries related to the analytic year EGU emissions are posted in the point reports

section of the FTP site.

IPM is a linear programming model that accounts for variables and information such as energy demand,

planned unit retirements, and planned rules to forecast unit-level energy production and configurations.

EPA's 2023 Reference case using IPM reflects current and existing state regulations, Renewable Portfolio

Standards and Clean Energy Standards as of end of 2023.

Some of the key parameters used in the IPM run are:

•	Demand: AEO 2023 non-EV demand + on-the-books OTAQ GHG LMDV and HDV Rules

•	Gas and Coal Market assumptions: Gas market assumptions as of end of 2021 (with LNG export
assumptions from AEO 2023) and coal market assumptions as of end of 2021 with adjustments
for historic consumption

•	Cost and performance of fossil generation technologies: AEO 2023

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•	Cost and performance of renewable energy generation technologies: NREL ATB 2023 (mid-case)

•	Fleet: NEEDS rev 06-06-2024 (xlsx)

To maintain a temporal pattern consistent with the base year, the NOX and S02 values in the base year
hourly CEMS inventories are projected to match the total seasonal emissions values in analytic years as
described in Section 3.3.3.

The EGU sector NOx emissions by state are listed in Table 4-2 for the cases that comprise this platform.
The state total emissions in this table may not exactly match the sum of the emissions for each state in
the flat files for each season due to the process of apportioning seasonal total emissions to hours for
input to SMOKE followed by summing the daily emissions back up to annual. However, any difference
should be well within one percent of the state total emissions.

Table 4-2. EGU sector NOx emissions by State for the 2022vl cases

State

2022hc

2026hc

Alabama

16,510

13,773

Arizona

15,668

9,637

Arkansas

17,015

14,550

California

5,816

5,757

Colorado

17,778

12,496

Connecticut

3,076

2,654

Delaware

911

462

District of Columbia

NA

NA

Florida

38,816

33,010

Georgia

20,636

19,122

Idaho

1,420

1,680

Illinois

20,575

10,239

Indiana

41,679

25,883

Iowa

16,966

14,182

Kansas

13,554

9,477

Kentucky

31,989

28,366

Louisiana

31,107

21,147

Maine

3,594

3,406

Maryland

4,405

3,584

Massachusetts

5,584

5,309

Michigan

29,158

18,484

Minnesota

14,491

11,131

Mississippi

16,333

12,262

Missouri

48,204

34,976

Montana

10,459

10,382

Nebraska

20,178

18,453

Nevada

4,488

2,101

New Flampshire

1,504

1,167

New Jersey

4,835

4,332

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State

2022hc

2026hc

New Mexico

6,604

2,913

New York

13,762

11,768

North Carolina

26,865

24,036

North Dakota

28,897

28,549

Ohio

31,933

22,299

Oklahoma

18,700

18,150

Oregon

2,775

2,207

Pennsylvania

27,252

16,826

Rhode Island

302

619

South Carolina

14,016

13,900

South Dakota

1,144

1,085

Tennessee

8,262

6,834

Texas

93,611

86,224

Tribal Areas

8,412

7,616

Utah

23,396

9,442

Vermont

194

109

Virginia

12,598

10,898

Washington

7,659

3,201

West Virginia

30,156

22,916

Wisconsin

10,985

8,468

Wyoming

26,411

19,591

4.2 Sectors with Projections Computed using CoST

To project U.S. emissions for sectors other than EGUs, facility/unit closures information, growth
(projection) factors and/or controls were applied to certain categories within those sectors. Some facility
or sub-facility-level closure information was applied to the point sources. There are also a handful of
situations where new inventories were generated for sources that did not exist in the NEI (e.g., biodiesel
and cellulosic plants, yet-to-be constructed cement kilns). This subsection provides details on the data
and projection methods used to develop analytic year emissions for sectors other than EGUs that were
developed using the Control Strategy Tool.

Because the projection and control data are developed mostly independently from how the emissions
modeling sectors are defined, this section is organized primarily by the type of projections data, with
secondary consideration given to the emissions modeling sector (e.g., industrial source growth factors
are applicable to multiple emissions modeling sectors). The rest of this section is organized in the order
that the EPA uses the Control Strategy Tool (CoST) in combination with other methods to produce
analytic year inventories: 1) for point sources, apply facility or sub-facility-level closure information via
CoST; 2) apply all PROJECTION packets via CoST (these contain multiplicative factors that could cause
increases or decreases); 3) apply all percent reduction-based CONTROL packets via CoST; and 4) append
any other analytic-year inventories not generated via CoST. This organization allows consolidation of the
discussion of the emissions categories that are contained in multiple sectors, because the data and

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approaches used across the sectors are consistent and do not need to be repeated. Sector names
associated with the CoST packets are provided in parentheses following the subsection titles.

The impacts of the projection and control factors on the emissions for each sector are shown in tables in
this section. In addition, the actual projection and control factors used to develop the analytic year
emissions are shown when they are general enough to fit into a table of reasonable length, although in
some cases, there are hundreds or thousands of factors used and the tables would be too large. To see
these factors, visit the spreadsheets under projection controls on the FTP site for this platform.

4.2.1 Background on the Control Strategy Tool (CoST)

CoST is used to apply most non-EGU projection/growth factors, controls and facility/unit/stack-level
closures to the base year emissions modeling inventories to create analytic year inventories for the
following sectors: afdust, airports, cmv, livestock, nonpt, np_oilgas, np_solvents, pt_oilgas, ptnonipm,
rail, and rwc. Information about CoST and related data sets is available from

https://www.epa.gov/economic-and-cost-analvsis-air-pollution-regulations/cost-analysis-modelstools-
air-pollution.

CoST allows the user to apply projection (growth) factors, controls and closures at various geographic
and inventory key field resolutions. Using these CoST datasets, also called "packets" or "programs,"
supports the process of developing and quality assuring control assessments as well as creating SMOKE-
ready analytic year (i.e., projected) inventories. Analytic year inventories are created for each emissions
modeling sector by applying a CoST control strategy type called "Project future year inventory" and each
strategy includes all base year inventories and applicable CoST packets. For reasons to be discussed
later, some emissions modeling sectors may require multiple CoST strategies to account for the
compounding of control programs that impact the same type of sources. There are also available
linkages to existing and user-defined control measure databases and it is up to the user to determine
how control strategies are developed and applied. The EPA typically creates individual CoST packets that
represent specific intended purposes (e.g., aircraft projections for airports are in a separate PROJECTION
packet from residential wood combustion sales/appliance turnover-based projections). CoST uses three
packet types:

•	CLOSURE: Closure packets are applied first in CoST. This packet can be used to zero-out (close)
point source emissions at resolutions as broad as a facility to as specific as a release point. The
EPA uses these types of packets for known post-base year controls as well as information on
closures provided by states on specific facilities, units or release points. This packet type is only
used for the ptnonipm and pt_oilgas sectors.

•	PROJECTION: Projection packets support the increase or decrease in emissions for virtually any
geographic and/or inventory source level. Projection factors are applied as multiplicative factors
to the base year emissions inventories prior to the application of any possible subsequent
CONTROLS. A PROJECTION packet is necessary whenever emissions increase from the base year
and is also desirable when information is based more on activity assumptions rather than on
known control measures. The EPA uses PROJECTION packet(s) for many modeling sectors.

•	CONTROL: Control packets are applied after any/all CLOSURE and PROJECTION packet entries.
They support of similar level of specificity of geographic and/or inventory source level application

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as PROJECTION packets. Control factors are expressed as a percent reduction (0 - meaning no
reduction, to 100 - meaning full reduction) and can be applied in addition to any pre-existing
inventory control, or as a replacement control. For replacement controls, any controls specified
in the inventory are first backed out prior to the application of a more-stringent replacement
control).

These packets use comma-delimited formats and are stored as data sets within the Emissions Modeling
Framework. As mentioned above, CoST first applies any/all CLOSURE information for point sources, then
applies PROJECTION packet information, followed by CONTROL packets. A hierarchy is used by CoST to
separately apply PROJECTION and CONTROL packets. In short, in a separate process for PROJECTION and
CONTROL packets, more specific information is applied in lieu of less-specific information in ANY other
packets. For example, a facility-level PROJECTION factor will be replaced by a unit-level, or facility and
pollutant-level PROJECTION factor. It is important to note that this hierarchy does not apply between
packet types (e.g., CONTROL packet entries are applied irrespective of PROJECTION packet hierarchies).
A more specific example: a state/SCC-level PROJECTION factor will be applied before a stack/pollutant-
level CONTROL factor that impacts the same inventory record. However, an inventory source that is
subject to a CLOSURE packet record is removed from consideration of subsequent PROJECTION and
CONTROL packets.

The implication for this hierarchy and intra-packet independence is important to understand and quality
assure when creating future year strategies. For example, with consent decrees, settlements and state
comments, the goal is typically to achieve a targeted reduction (from the base year inventory) or a
targeted analytic-year emissions value. Therefore, controls due to consent decrees and state comments
for specific cement kilns (expressed as CONTROL packet entries) need to be applied instead of(not in
addition to) the more general approach of the PROJECTION packet entries for cement manufacturing. By
processing CoST control strategies with PROJECTION and CONTROL packets separated by the type of
broad measure/program, it is possible to show actual changes from the base year inventory to the
future (i.e., analytic) year inventory as a result of applying each packet.

Ultimately, CoST concatenates all PROJECTION packets into one PROJECTION dataset and uses a
hierarchal matching approach to assign PROJECTION factors to the inventory. For example, a packet
entry with Ranking=l will supersede all other potential inventory matches from other packets. CoST
then computes the projected emissions from all PROJECTION packet matches and then performs a
similar routine for all CONTROL packets. Therefore, when summarizing "emissions reduced" from
CONTROL packets, it is important to note that these reductions are not relative to the base year
inventory, but rather to the intermediate inventory after application of any/all PROJECTION packet
matches (and CLOSURES). A subset of the more than 70 hierarchy options is shown in Table 4-3, where
the fields in the table are similar to those used in the SMOKE FF10 inventories. For example,
"REGION_CD" is the county-state-county FIPS code (e.g., Harris County Texas is 48201) and "STATE"
would be the 2-digit state FIPS code with three trailing zeroes (e.g., Texas is 48000).

Table 4-3. Subset of CoST Packet Matching Hierarchy

Rank

Matching Hierarchy

Inventory Type

1

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, UNITJD, REL_POINT_ID, PROCESSJD, SCC, POLL

point

2

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, UNITJD, REL_POINT_ID, PROCESSJD, POLL

point

3

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, UNITJD, REL_POINT_ID, POLL

point

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Rank

Matching Hierarchy

Inventory Type

4

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, UNITJD, POLL

point

5

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, SCC, POLL

point

6

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, POLL

point

7

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, UNITJD, REL_POINT_ID, PROCESSJD, SCC

point

8

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, UNITJD, REL_POINT_ID, PROCESSJD

point

9

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, UNITJD, REL_POINT_ID

point

10

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, UNITJD

point

11

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD, SCC

point

12

REGION_CD, FACIUTYJD

point

13

REGION_CD, NAICS, SCC, POLL

point, nonpoint

14

REGION_CD, NAICS, POLL

point, nonpoint

15

STATE, NAICS, SCC, POLL

point, nonpoint

16

STATE, NAICS, POLL

point, nonpoint

17

NAICS, SCC, POLL

point, nonpoint

18

NAICS, POLL

point, nonpoint

19

REGION_CD, NAICS, SCC

point, nonpoint

20

REGION_CD, NAICS

point, nonpoint

21

STATE, NAICS, SCC

point, nonpoint

22

STATE, NAICS

point, nonpoint

23

NAICS, SCC

point, nonpoint

24

NAICS

point, nonpoint

25

REGION_CD, SCC, POLL

point, nonpoint

26

STATE, SCC, POLL

point, nonpoint

27

SCC, POLL

point, nonpoint

28

REGION_CD, SCC

point, nonpoint

29

STATE, SCC

point, nonpoint

30

SCC

point, nonpoint

31

REGION_CD, POLL

point, nonpoint

32

REGION CD

point, nonpoint

33

STATE, POLL

point, nonpoint

34

STATE

point, nonpoint

35

POLL

point, nonpoint

The contents of the controls, local adjustments and closures for the analytic year cases are described in
the following subsections. Year-specific projection factors (PROJECTION packets) for each analytic year
were used to create the analytic year cases, unless noted otherwise in the specific subsections. The
contents of a few of these projection packets (and control reductions) are provided in the following
subsections where feasible. However, most sectors used growth or control factors that varied
geographically, and their contents could not be provided in the following sections (e.g., facilities and
units subject to the Boiler MACT reconsideration has thousands of records). The remainder of Section
4.2 is divided into subsections that are summarized in Table 4-4. Note that independent analytic year
inventories were used rather than projection or control packets for some sources.

168


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Table 4-4. Summary of non-EGU projections subsections

Subsection

Title

Sector(s)

Brief Description

4.2.2

CoST Plant CLOSURE

ptnonipm,

All facility/unit/stack closures information,



packet

pt_oilgas

primarily from Emissions Inventory System (EIS),
also includes information from states and other
organizations.

4.2.3

CoST PROJECTION
packets

All

Introduces and summarizes national impacts of all
CoST PROJECTION packets to the analytic year.

4.2.3.1

Fugitive dust growth

afdust

PROJECTION packet: county-level resolution,
based on VMT growth plus some other surrogates
such as livestock counts.

4.2.3.2

Airport sources

airports

PROJECTION packet: by-airport for all direct
matches to FAA Terminal Area Forecast data, with
state-level factors for non-matching airports.

4.2.3.3

Category 1 and 2
commercial marine
vessels

cmv_clc2

PROJECTION packet: Category 1 & 2 growth and
control by pollutant, vessel type, and region.

4.2.3.4

Category 3 commercial
marine vessels

cmv_c3

PROJECTION packet: Category 3 growth and
control impacts by pollutant, vessel type, and
region.

4.2.3.5

Livestock population
growth

livestock

PROJECTION packet: national, by-animal type
resolution, based on animal population
projections.

4.2.3.6

Nonpoint sources

nonpt

PROJECTION packet: States projected with AEO-
based factors for many sources. Human
population used as growth for applicable sources.

4.2.3.7

Solvents

np_solvents

PROJECTION packet: including population-based,
state factors and some other surrogtes.

4.2.3.8

Oil and gas and

nonpt,

Several PROJECTION packets: varying geographic



industrial source

np_oilgas,

resolutions from state, county, and by-



growth

ptnonipm,
pt_oilgas

process/fuel-type applications. Data derived from
AEO were used for nonpt, ptnonipm, np_oilgas,
and pt_oilgas sectors.

4.2.3.9

Non-EGU Point
Sources

ptnonipm

PROJECTION packet: AEO-based projection factors
for industrial sources.

4.2.3.10

Railroads

rail

PROJECTION packet: Based on AEO and
extrapolation from recent inventories.

4.2.3.11

Residential wood
combustion

rwc

Held Constant. No growth or control in this
platform

4.2.4

CoST CONTROL

ptnonipm,

Introduces and summarizes national impacts of all



packets

nonpt,
np_oilgas,
pt_oilgas,
np_solvents

CoST CONTROL packets to the analytic year.

169


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Subsection

Title

Sector(s)

Brief Description

4.2.4.1

Oil and Gas NSPS

np_oilgas,
pt_oilgas

CONTROL packets: reflect the impacts of the NSPS
for oil and gas sources.

4.2.4.2

RICE NSPS

ptnonipm,
nonpt,
np_oilgas,
pt_oilgas

CONTROL packets apply reductions for lean burn,
rich burn, and combined engines for identified
SCCs.

4.2.4.3

Organic Liquids
Distribution NESHAP

ptnonipm

CONTROL packet: applies VOC reductions based
on the NESHAP for organic liquids distribution.

4.2.4.4

Natural GasTurbines
NOx NSPS

ptnonipm

CONTROL packets apply NOx emission reductions
established by the NSPS for turbines.

4.2.4.5

Process Heaters NOx
NSPS

ptnonipm

CONTROL packet: applies NOx emission limits
established by the NSPS for process heaters.

4.2.4.6

State-specific controls

nonpt,

np_solvents,

ptnonipm

CONTROL packet: applies controls specific to
certain states

4.2.2 CoST CLOSURE Packet (ptnonipm, pt_oilgas)

Packets:

closures_2022vl_platform_fromEIS_16sep2024_vl
closures_2022vl_platform_fromSLT_21feb2025_vl

The CLOSURES packets contain facility, unit and stack-level closure information. The "fromEIS" closures
packet is derived from an Emissions Inventory System (EIS) unit-level report from July 2024, with closure
status equal to "PS" (permanent shutdown; i.e., post-2022 permanent facility/unit shutdowns known in
EIS as of the date of the report). The "fromSLT" closures packet consists of any data provided by
commenters for closures, updated to match the SMOKE FF10 inventory key fields, with all duplicates
removed. These changes impact sources in the ptnonipm and pt_oilgas sectors. The cumulative
reduction in emissions for ptnonipm and pt_oilgas from closures are shown in Table 4-5.

Table 4-5. Tons reduced from all facility/unit/stack-level closures in 2026 from 2022 emissions levels

Year

Pollutant

ptnonipm

pt_oilgas

2026

CO

10,059

961

2026

NH3

363

0

2026

NOX

11,082

1,984

2026

PM10

3,297

57

2026

PM2.5

2,691

57

2026

S02

8,755

3

2026

VOC

8,299

239

170


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4.2.3 CoST PROJECTION Packets (afdust, airports, cmv, livestock, nonpt,
np_oilgas, np_solvents, ptnonipm, pt_oilgas, rail)

For point inventories, after the application of any/all CLOSURE packet information, the next step CoST
performs when running a control strategy is to apply all of the PROJECTION packets. Regardless of
inventory type (point or nonpoint), the PROJECTION packets are applied prior to the CONTROL packets.
For several emissions modeling sectors (e.g., airports, np_oilgas, pt_oilgas), there is only one
PROJECTION packet applied for each analytic year. For other sectors, there may be several different
sources of projection data and as a result there are multiple PROJECTION packets that are concatenated
by CoST during a control strategy run. The outputs are then quality-assured regarding duplicates and
applicability to the inventories in the CoST strategy. Similarly, CONTROL packets are kept in distinct
datasets for different control programs. Having the PROJECTION (and CONTROL) packets separated into
"key" projection and control programs allows for quick summaries of the impacts of these distinct
control programs on emissions.

Quantitative impacts of the projections on the emissions by sector nationally and by state are available
in the reports folder on the FTP site. Some excerpts from this workbook are included in the subsections
that follow.

nonpoint_projection_packet_2022_platform_2022hc_to_2026_updates_24dec2024_csv_24dec2024_v0

For paved roads (SCC 2294000000), the afdust emissions were projected to based on differences in
county total VMT as follows:

Analytic year afdust paved roads = 2022 afdust paved roads * (Analytic year county total VMT) /

The VMT projections are described in the onroad section. Unpaved road dust emissions were held
constant.

Other SCCs were projected based on the average of AEO2023 U.S. Census region specific employment
and value of shipments (VOS) data to derive growth surrogates.

Where EMP is regional and industrial sector specific employment in millions of people and VOS is
regional and industrial sector specific value of shipments (or revenue) in billion 2012 dollars. The
average of analytic year over base year specific EMP and VOS factors were used as a growth factor, GF.

SCCs in the afdust sector used surrogates to derive projection factors in similar ways as shown above for
the paved roads. Table 4-6 shows the growth indicators used to grow SCCs in the afdust sector. Table
4-7 shows the impact of the projections on the afdust sector emissions.

4.2.3.1 Fugitive dust growth (afdust)

Packets:

(2022 county total VMT)

171


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Table 4-6. Growth Indicators used to grow SCCs in the afdust sector

see

Sector

Growth Indicator

Source

Geography

Dust - Paved Road
2294000000 ^ Total VMT
Dust

2022vl VMT

County

2296000000

Dust - Unpaved
Road Dust

No Growth





2311010000

Dust -

Construction Dust

EMPIND25-27 (Construction:
Building, Heavy/ Civil
Engineering, Specialty Trade);
REVIND48

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2311020000

Dust -

Construction Dust

EMPIND25-27 (Construction:
Building, Heavy/Civil
Engineering, Specialty Trade);
REVIND48

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2311030000

Dust -

Construction Dust

Total VMT

2022vl VMT

County

2325000000

Industrial
Processes -
Mining

EMPIND24 (Other Mining and
Quarrying); REVIND47

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2325020000

Industrial
Processes -
Mining

EMPIND24 (Other Mining and
Quarrying); REVIND47

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2325030000

Industrial
Processes -
Mining

EMPIND24 (Other Mining and
Quarrying); REVIND47

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2325060000

Industrial

Processes - Mining

EMPIND24 (Other Mining and
Quarrying); REVIND47

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2801000000

Agr
& L

culture - Crops
vestock Dust

EMPIND20 (Crop Production);
REVIND42

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2801000003

Agr
& L

culture - Crops
vestock Dust

EMPIND20 (Crop Production);
REVIND42

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2801000005

Agr
& L

culture - Crops
vestock Dust

EMPIND20 (Crop Production);
REVIND42

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2801000008

Agr
& L

culture - Crops
vestock Dust

EMPIND20 (Crop Production);
REVIND42

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2801530000

Agr
& L

culture - Crops
vestock Dust

EMPIND21 (Other
Agriculture); REVIND44

AEO2023

Regional (Census
Division)

2805100010

Agr
& L

culture - Crops
vestock Dust

Beef Cattle surrogate

EPA State GHG
Projections Tool

State

2805100020

Agr
& L

culture - Crops
vestock Dust

Dairy Cattle surrogate

EPA State GHG
Projections Tool

State

2805100030

Agr
& L

culture - Crops
vestock Dust

Young Chickens surrogate

EPA State GHG
Projections Tool

State

2805100040

Agr
& L

culture - Crops
vestock Dust

Young Chickens surrogate

EPA State GHG
Projections Tool

State

172


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see

Sector

Growth Indicator

Source

Geography

2805100050

Agriculture - Crops
& Livestock Dust

Hog surrogate

EPA State GHG
Projections Tool

State

2805100060

Agriculture - Crops
& Livestock Dust

Turkey surrogate

EPA State GHG
Projections Tool

State

Table 4-7. Increase in afdust PM2.5 emissions from projections

Sector

Year

PM2.5 Emissions

Percent Increase vs
2022

Paved Roads

2022

308,622

N/A

All afdust

2022

2,048,850

N/A

Paved Roads

2026

321,732

4.2%

All afdust

2026

2,073,013

1.2%

4.2.3.2 Airport sources (airports)

Packets:

airport_projections_itn_taf2023_2022_2026_for_2022vl_platform_09aug2024_v0

Airport emissions were projected based on factors derived from the 2023 Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)
data available from the Federal Aviation Administration (see
https://www.faa.gov/data research/aviation/taf/).

Projection factors were computed using the ratio of the itinerant (ITN) data from the Airport Operations
table between the base and projection year. Where possible, airport-specific projection factors were
used. For airports that could not be matched to a unit in the TAF data, state default growth factors by
itinerant class (i.e., commercial, air taxi, and general) were created from the set of unmatched airports.
Emission growth factors for facilities from 2022 to each analytic year were limited to a range of 0.2 (80%
reduction) to 5.0 (400% growth), and the state default projection factors were limited to a range of 0.5
(50% reduction) to 2.0 (100% growth). Military state default projection values were kept flat (i.e., equal
to 1.0) to reflect uncertainly in the data regarding these sources.

Table 4-8 shows the growth factors used for major airports from 2022 to 2026, respectively. Table 4-9
shows the impacts of the projections on the emissions at airports.

Table 4-8. TAF 2023 growth factors for major airports, 2022 to 2026

Facility ID

State

Airport

Commercial
Aviation

General
Aviation

Air Taxi

10583311

Arizona

Phoenix (PHX)

1.2128

0.9948

1.1883

2255111

California

Los Angeles (LAX)

1.2852

1.1855

0.5950

9997011

California

San Francisco (SFO)

1.5693

1.0780

0.4138

9816811

Colorado

Denver(DEN)

1.3866

1.1823

0.2922

9762111

Florida

Orlando (MCO)

1.3437

0.9609

1.3465

9791511

Florida

Fort Lauderdale (FLL)

1.2919

0.9084

1.0146

9806211

Florida

Miami (MIA)

1.1722

0.9639

0.9336

173


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Facility ID

State

Airport

Commercial
Aviation

General
Aviation

Air Taxi

9748811

Georgia

Atlanta (ATL)

1.3163

1.1589

n/a

2681611

Illinois

Chicago O'Hare (ORD)

1.3371

1.1628

0.2221

9562811

Massachusetts

Boston (BOS)

1.1995

1.1036

1.0157

9535411

Michigan

Detroit (DTW)

1.3157

1.2204

n/a

6151711

Minnesota

Minneapolis (MSP)

1.3491

1.2410

0.3224

9392311

Nevada

Las Vegas (LAS)

1.2692

0.9862

0.8545

9376211

New Jersey

Newark (EWR)

1.1204

1.3308

0.9782

9333211

New York

La Guardia (LGA)

1.0985

1.1385

1.0505

9333311

New York

John F Kennedy (JFK)

1.2094

1.5024

0.5801

9279611

North Carolina

Charlotte (CLT)

1.2281

0.9295

0.6935

9246511

Oregon

Portland (PDX)

1.3413

1.0948

1.0077

9185011

Pennsylvania

Philadelphia (PHL)

1.2649

0.9929

0.6014

9171111

Tennessee

Memphis (MEM)

1.1364

1.0512

0.7085

9076711

Texas

Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW)

1.3230

1.0249

n/a

9128911

Texas

Flouston Intercontinental (IAH)

1.2908

1.2748

0.2224

9076611

Utah

Salt Lake City (SLC)

1.1806

1.0166

0.7177

9063811

Virginia

Washington Dulles (IAD)

1.4615

1.0917

0.5722

9093911

Washington

Seattle (SEA)

1.166

1.7739

1.1613

Table 4-9. Impact of growth factors on 2022 airport emissions for 2026

Pollutant

2022
Emissions

2026
Emissions

2026
Emissions %
Change

CO

385,527

420,226

9%

NOX

121,944

140,528

15%

PM10-PRI

9,528

10,079

6%

PM25-PRI

8,475

8,979

6%

S02

12,502

14,357

15%

VOC

46,989

51,293

9%

4.2.3.3 Category 1, Category 2 Commercial Marine Vessels (cmv_c1c2)

Packets:

projection_packet_CMV_ClC2_2022_2026_csv_19aug2024_v0

Category 1 and category 2 (C1C2) CMV emissions were projected based on factors derived from the
Freight Analysis Framework version 5. An additional adjustment was applied to NOx emissions. The
adjustment factors are intended to account for fleet turnover to newer vessels that meet stricter Tier-2
and Tier-3 emissions standards. See the Category 3 CMV documentation for more details on the
development of the projection factors for both C1C2 and C3 CMV vessels. Table 4-10 shows the CMV
C1C2 emissions by broad region in the base year and 2026.

174


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Table 4-10. Resulting C1C2 Emissions for 2026 Compared to 2022 (tons/yr)

Region

Pollutant

2022

2026

Alaska

CO

928

1,035

Alaska

CO 2

427,960

476,873

Alaska

NH3

3

3

Alaska

NOX

5,972

6,660

Alaska

PM10

154

172

Alaska

PM2 5

150

167

Alaska

S02

15

16

Alaska

VOC

196

219

Atlantic

CO

6,606

6,675

Atlantic

CO 2

3,064,688

3,105,114

Atlantic

NH3

21

22

Atlantic

NOX

43,265

43,718

Atlantic

PM10

1,146

1,159

Atlantic

PM2 5

1,111

1,123

Atlantic

S02

131

138

Atlantic

VOC

1,523

1,538

Gulf

CO

10,250

10,865

Gulf

CO 2

5,203,728

5,517,554

Gulf

NH3

35

37

Gulf

NOX

68,743

72,870

Gulf

PM10

1,884

1,998

Gulf

PM2 5

1,826

1,935

Gulf

S02

373

397

Gulf

VOC

2,697

2,859

Hawaii

CO

239

257

Hawaii

CO 2

106,808

114,778

Hawaii

NH3

1

1

Hawaii

NOX

1,564

1,680

Hawaii

PM10

41

44

Hawaii

PM2 5

39

42

Hawaii

S02

3

3

Hawaii

VOC

52

56

Inland

CO

4,211

4,177

Inland

CO 2

1,960,291

1,950,915

Inland

NH3

16

16

Inland

NOX

29,997

29,734

Inland

PM10

843

836

Inland

PM2 5

817

810

Inland

S02

133

136

Inland

VOC

1,289

1,275

Pacific

CO

3,490

3,706

Pacific

CO 2

1,652,962

1,758,788

Pacific

NH3

11

12

Pacific

NOX

22,571

23,974

Pacific

PM10

595

633

Pacific

PM2_5

577

613

175


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Region

Pollutant

2022

2026

Pacific

S02

78

85

Pacific

VOC

777

825

4.2.3.4 Category 3 Commercial Marine Vessels (cmv_c3)

Packets:

projection_packet_CMV_C3_2022_2026_csv_19aug2024_v0

Category 3 (C3) CMV emissions were projected based on factors derived from the Freight Analysis
Framework version 5. An additional adjustment was applied to NOx emissions. The adjustment factors
are intended to account for fleet turnover to newer vessels that meet stricter Tier-2 and Tier-3 emissions
standards. See the Category 3 CMV documentation for more details on the development of the factors.
Table 4-11 shows the CMV C3 emissions by broad region in the base year and 2026.

Table 4-11. Resulting C3 Emissions for 2026 Compared to 2022 (tons/yr)

Region

Pollutant

2022

2026

Alaska

CO

1,043

1,156

Alaska

CO 2

638,087

706,095

Alaska

NH3

4

4

Alaska

NOX

7,977

8,352

Alaska

PM10

212

231

Alaska

PM2 5

195

213

Alaska

S02

512

555

Alaska

VOC

485

538

Atlantic

CO

19,235

20,215

Atlantic

CO 2

9,427,314

9,864,041

Atlantic

NH3

71

74

Atlantic

NOX

156,984

155,296

Atlantic

PM10

3,992

4,163

Atlantic

PM2 5

3,673

3,830

Atlantic

S02

9,225

9,599

Atlantic

VOC

9,447

9,952

Gulf

CO

13,441

14,287

Gulf

CO 2

7,419,752

7,886,079

Gulf

NH3

45

47

Gulf

NOX

113,761

114,163

Gulf

PM10

2,513

2,671

Gulf

PM2 5

2,312

2,457

Gulf

S02

5,705

6,063

Gulf

VOC

6,268

6,666

Hawaii

CO

170

182

Hawaii

CO 2

118,423

127,172

Hawaii

NH3

1

1

Hawaii

NOX

1,617

1,643

Hawaii

PM10

32

34

Hawaii

PM2_5

29

31

176


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Region

Pollutant

2022

2026

Hawaii

S02

72

78

Hawaii

VOC

73

78

Inland

CO

820

801

Inland

CO 2

441,645

431,914

Inland

NH3

2

2

Inland

NOX

8,121

7,488

Inland

PM10

128

125

Inland

PM2 5

118

115

Inland

S02

269

263

Inland

VOC

387

378

Pacific

CO

13,797

15,039

Pacific

CO 2

6,586,834

7,165,481

Pacific

NH3

62

67

Pacific

NOX

114,530

117,870

Pacific

PM10

3,474

3,790

Pacific

PM2 5

3,196

3,486

Pacific

S02

8,282

9,035

Pacific

VOC

6,956

7,589

4.2.3.5 Livestock population growth (livestock)

Packets:

nonpoint_projection_packet_2022_platform_2022hc_to_2026_updates_24dec2024_csv_24dec2024_v0

The 2022vl livestock emissions were projected to year 2026 using projection factors created from the
Greenhouse Gas Inventory tool (EPA, 2024b) For each analytic year, projection factors were created
based on ratios between animal inventory counts between 2026 as compared to 2022. This process was
completed for the animal categories of beef, dairy, chickens, turkeys, and swine. National factors were
used to project emissions from beef and dairy cows, and state-specific factors were used to project
emissions from swine although North Carolina requested state swine emissions to be held constant.
Other livestock categories were held flat.

The projection factors were then applied to the base year emissions for the specific animal type to
estimate the NH3 and VOC emissions for 2026 are shown in Table 4-12.

Table 4-12. Impact of 2026 projection factors on livestock

Animal

Pollutant

Inventory

Final

Emissions

Emissions %





Emissions

Emissions

Change

Change

Beef

NH3

775,290

753,970

-21,320

-2.75%

Beef

VOC

62,023

60,249

-1,774

-2.86%

Chickens

NH3

473,844

473,844

0

0.00%

Chickens

VOC

37,908

37,908

0

0.00%

Dairy

NH3

350,829

349,496

-1,333

-0.38%

Dairy

VOC

28,066

28,201

134

0.48%

Swine

NH3

839,869

867,285

27,416

3.26%

Swine

VOC

67,190

69,383

2,193

3.26%

177


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Animal

Pollutant

Inventory
Emissions

Final

Emissions

Emissions
Change

Emissions %
Change

Turkeys

NH3

82,538

82,538

0

0.00%

Turkeys

VOC

6,603

6,603

0

0.00%

4.2.3.6 Nonpoint Sources (nonpt)

Packets:

nonpoint_projection_packet_2022_platform_2022hc_to_2026_updates_24dec2024_csv_24dec2024_v0

In 2022vl, SCCs in the sector for nonpoint emissions not covered in other sectors were projected based
on factors derived from specific surrogates for each SCC as identified by the Collaborative Nonpoint task
force. One of the surrogates used was population. The county-specific population dataset used to
derive changes between the base and analytic years was the Woods and Poole dataset used by BenMAP.
The AEO energy consumption projections and economic projections used for many growth surrogates
was AEO 2023. VMT-based projections are based on the final county-level VMT data developed for each
of the years of the 2022vl platform. For a complete list of nonpoint growth surrogates by SCC, see the
NP_AnalyticYr_Crosswalk spreadsheet in the reports / nonpoint folder on the FTP site. Table 4-13 shows
the impacts of the projection factors on the nonpt sector for 2026. The task force recommended no
growth for the SCCs shown in Table 4-14.

Table 4-13. Impact of 2022-2026 projection factors on nonpt emissions

Pollutant

Inventory
Emissions

Final
Emissions

Emissions
Change

Emissions %
Change

CO

842,395

845,504

3,110

0.4%

NH3

69,594

68,102

-1,492

-2.1%

NOX

741,248

715,965

-25,283

-3.4%

PM10-PRI

489,860

500,617

10,757

2.2%

PM25-PRI

421,788

433,078

11,289

2.7%

S02

75,760

63,123

-12,637

-16.7%

VOC

949,760

973,450

23,690

2.5%

Table 4-14. SCCs in nonpt that were held constant

SCC

Description

2801600300

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops; Agricultural Field Burning - Pile
Burning; Orchard Crop Other Not Elsewhere Classified

2801600320

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops; Agricultural Field Burning - Pile
Burning; Orchard Crop is Apple

2801600330

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops; Agricultural Field Burning - Pile
Burning; Orchard Crop is Apricot

2801600350

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops; Agricultural Field Burning - Pile
Burning; Orchard Crop is Cherry

2801600410

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops; Agricultural Field Burning - Pile
Burning; Orchard Crop is Peach

2801600420

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops; Agricultural Field Burning - Pile
Burning; Orchard Crop is Pear

178


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see

Description

2801600430

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops; Agricultural Field Burning - Pile
Burning; Orchard Crop is Prune

2801600500

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops; Agricultural Field Burning - Pile
Burning; Vine Crop Other Not Elsewhere Classified

2104008100

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Fireplace: general

2104008210

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Woodstove: fireplace inserts; non-EPA
certified

2104008220

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA
certified; non-catalytic

2104008230

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA
certified; catalytic

2104008300

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Woodstove: freestanding, general

2104008310

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Woodstove: freestanding, non-EPA
certified

2104008320

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified,
non-catalytic

2104008330

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified,
catalytic

2104008400

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Woodstove: pellet-fired, general
(freestanding or FP insert)

2104008510

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Furnace: Indoor, cordwood-fired, non-
EPA certified

2104008530

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Furnace: Indoor, pellet-fired, general

2104008610

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Hydronic heater: outdoor

2104008620

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Hydronic heater: indoor

2104008630

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Hydronic heater: pellet-fired

2104008700

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Wood; Outdoor wood burning device, NEC
(fire-pits, chimeas, etc)

2104009000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Firelog; Total: All Combustor Types

2296000000

Mobile Sources; Unpaved Roads; All Unpaved Roads; Total: Fugitives

2461021000

Solvent Utilization; Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial; Cutback Asphalt; Total: All
Solvent Types

2501011011

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Residential Portable Gas
Cans; Permeation

2501011012

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Residential Portable Gas
Cans; Evaporation (includes Diurnal losses)

2501011014

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Residential Portable Gas
Cans; Refilling at the Pump - Vapor Displacement

2501012011

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Commercial Portable Gas
Cans; Permeation

2501012012

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Commercial Portable Gas
Cans; Evaporation (includes Diurnal losses)

2501012014

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Commercial Portable Gas
Cans; Refilling at the Pump - Vapor Displacement

2501013010

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Residential/Commercial
Portable Gas Cans; Total: All Types

2535000000

Storage and Transport; Bulk Materials Transport; All Transport Types; Total: All Products

179


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see

Description

2601010000

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; On-site Incineration; Industrial; Total



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Open Burning; All Categories; Yard Waste - Leaf

2610000100

Species Unspecified



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Open Burning; All Categories; Yard Waste - Weed

2610000300

Species Unspecified (incl Grass)



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Open Burning; All Categories; Yard Waste - Brush

2610000400

Species Unspecified



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Open Burning; All Categories; Land Clearing Debris

2610000500

(use 28-10-005-000 for Logging Debris Burning)



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Open Burning; Residential; Household Waste (use

2610030000

26-10-000-xxx for Yard Wastes)



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Soil and Groundwater Remediation; All Categories;

2635000000

Total



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery; Leaking Underground Storage Tanks; Leaking

2660000000

Underground Storage Tanks; Total: All Storage Types

2701200000

Natural Sources; Biogenic; Vegetation; Total

2701220000

Natural Sources; Biogenic; Vegetation/Agriculture; Total



Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Livestock; Horses and Ponies Waste

2805035000

Emissions; Not Elsewhere Classified



Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Livestock; Sheep and Lambs Waste

2805040000

Emissions; Total



Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Livestock; Goats Waste Emissions; Not

2805045000

Elsewhere Classified

2806010000

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Domestic Animals Waste Emissions; Cats; Total

2806015000

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Domestic Animals Waste Emissions; Dogs; Total



Miscellaneous Area Sources; Other Combustion; Managed Burning, Slash (Logging Debris);

2810005000

Unspecified Burn Method (use 2610000500 for non-logging debris)

2810035000

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Other Combustion; Firefighting Training; Total



Miscellaneous Area Sources; Other Combustion; Aircraft/Rocket Engine Firing and Testing;

2810040000

Total

Human Population Growth

For SCCs that were projected based on human population growth, population projection data were
available from the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) model by county for several years,
including 2022 and 2026. Population data for Populations for DE, NJ, and NC were state-provided.

These human population data were used to create modified county-specific projection factors. The
impacted SCCs are shown in Table 4-15. Growth factors were limited to 10% cumulative annual growth
(e.g., four times 10% growth compounded over four years), but none of the factors fell outside that
range. The state totals used for human population are shown in Table 4-16.

Table 4-15. SCCs in nonpt that use Human Population Growth for Projections

see

Description

2302002000

Industrial Processes;Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;Commercial Cooking -
Charbroiling;Charbroiling Total

180


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see

Description



Industrial Processes;Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;Commercial Cooking -

2302002100

Charbroiling;Conveyorized Charbroiling



Industrial Processes;Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;Commercial Cooking -

2302002200

Charbroiling;Under-fired Charbroiling



Industrial Processes;Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;Commercial Cooking - Frying;Deep Fat

2302003000

Frying



Industrial Processes;Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;Commercial Cooking - Frying;Flat

2302003100

Griddle Frying



Industrial Processes;Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;Commercial Cooking - Frying;Clamshell

2302003200

Griddle Frying

2601020000

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;On-site lncineration;Commercial/lnstitutional;Total

2620000000

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Landfills;AII Categories;Total

2620010000

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Landfills;lndustrial;Total

2620020000

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Landfills;Commercial/lnstitutional;Total

2620030000

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Landfills;Municipal;Total



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Landfills;Municipal;Dumping/Crushing/Spreading of

2620030001

New Materials (working face)

2630010000

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Wastewater Treatment;lndustrial;Total Processed



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Wastewater Treatment;Public Owned;Total

2630020000

Processed



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Wastewater Treatment;Public Owned;Wastewater

2630020010

Treatment Processes Total

2640000000

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;TSDFs;AII TSDF Types;Total: All Processes



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Scrap and Waste Materials;Scrap and Waste

2650000000

Materials;Total: All Processes



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Scrap and Waste Materials;Scrap and Waste

2650000002

Materials;Shredding



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Composting;100% Biosolids (e.g., sewage sludge,

2680001000

manure, mixtures of these matls);AII Processes



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Composting;Mixed Waste (e.g., a 50:50 mixture of

2680002000

biosolids and green wastes);AII Processes



Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery;Composting;100% Green Waste (e.g., residential or

2680003000

municipal yard wastes);AII Processes



Miscellaneous Area Sources;Other Combustion;Residential Grilling (see 23-02-002-xxx for

2810025000

Commercial);Total

2810060100

Miscellaneous Area Sources;Other Combustion;Cremation;Humans

2810060200

Miscellaneous Area Sources;Other Combustion;Cremation;Animals

2850000000

Miscellaneous Area Sources;Health Services;Hospitals;Total: All Operations

2850001000

Miscellaneous Area Sources;Health Services;Dental Alloy Production;Overall Process

2851001000

Miscellaneous Area Sources;Laboratories;Bench Scale Reagents;Total



Miscellaneous Area Sources;Fluorescent Lamp Breakage;Fluorescent Lamp Breakage;Non-

2861000000

recycling Related Emissions: Total



Miscellaneous Area Sources;Fluorescent Lamp Breakage;Fluorescent Lamp Breakage;Recycling

2861000010

Related Emissions: Total

181


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Table 4-16. Human population projections by state

State

2022

2026

Alabama

5,092,444

5,224,148

Arizona

7,622,773

8,128,142

Arkansas

3,172,493

3,287,089

California

41,761,812

43,390,150

Colorado

5,912,984

6,230,097

Connecticut

3,721,597

3,790,209

Delaware

1,015,140

1,055,460

District of
Columbia

691,095

709,826

Florida

22,123,665

23,374,209

Georgia

11,100,196

11,665,279

Idaho

1,803,013

1,897,210

Illinois

13,312,931

13,546,464

Indiana

6,897,517

7,059,224

Iowa

3,193,365

3,242,193

Kansas

3,041,479

3,119,802

Kentucky

4,654,934

4,788,804

Louisiana

4,890,790

5,025,848

Maine

1,397,624

1,432,823

Maryland

6,434,564

6,685,708

Massachusetts

6,982,317

7,116,327

Michigan

10,119,130

10,228,231

Minnesota

5,834,058

6,040,297

Mississippi

3,149,156

3,235,500

Missouri

6,358,501

6,519,480

Montana

1,095,591

1,136,131

Nebraska

1,977,983

2,032,652

Nevada

3,201,664

3,403,943

New Hampshire

1,406,100

1,448,565

New Jersey

9,135,956

9,244,588

New Mexico

2,296,905

2,415,541

New York

20,274,542

20,567,411

North Carolina

10,705,403

11,241,251

North Dakota

802,775

839,955

Ohio

11,879,937

12,036,028

Oklahoma

4,134,219

4,274,562

Oregon

4,296,405

4,475,608

Pennsylvania

13,127,695

13,315,053

Rhode Island

1,082,808

1,097,899

South Carolina

5,278,020

5,525,359

South Dakota

904,319

934,348

Tennessee

7,091,037

7,387,966

182


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State

2022

2026

Texas

30,436,322

32,427,324

Utah

3,291,357

3,489,464

Vermont

663,235

682,819

Virginia

9,095,464

9,532,252

Washington

7,761,429

8,154,313

West Virginia

1,898,285

1,926,027

Wisconsin

6,043,228

6,195,531

Wyoming

636,149

665,384

ElA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Reference Case Projections

Many of the nonpoint emissions were projected using the 2023 ElA's AEO (U.S. Energy Information
Administration, 2023). The AEO is an assessment of the outlook for energy markets through 2050. These
economic projections and energy consumption projections were mapped based on emissions processes.
For economic based projections, an average of the projected change in employment and the project
change in revenue was used for the growth indicator. These SCCs are shown in Table 4-17. For more in-
depth details on the indicators see the NP_AnalyticYr_Crosswalk spreadsheet in the reports / nonpoint
folder on the FTP site

Table 4-17. Cs in nonpt that use ElA's AE for Projections

see

SCC description

Growth Indicator

2102001000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Anthracite Coal;
Total: All Boiler Types

Industrial/Other Industrial
Coal

2102002000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial;
Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal; Total: All Boiler Types

Industrial/Other Industrial
Coal

2102004000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Distillate Oil; Total:
Boilers and IC Engines

Industrial/Distillate Fuel Oil

2102004001

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Distillate Oil; All
Boiler Types

Industrial/Distillate Fuel Oil

2102004002

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Distillate Oil; All IC
Engine Types

Industrial/Distillate Fuel Oil

2102005000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Residual Oil; Total:
All Boiler Types

Industrial/Residual Fuel Oil

2102006000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Natural Gas; Total:
Boilers and IC Engines

Industrial/Natural Gas

2102007000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Liquified
Petroleum Gas (LPG); Total: All Boiler Types

Industrial/Flydrocarbon Gas
Liquids

2102008000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Wood; Total: All
Boiler Types

Industrial/Renewable Energy

2102010000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Process Gas; Total:
All Boiler Types

Industrial/Total Energy

2102011000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Kerosene; Total:
All Boiler Types

Industrial/Other Petroleum

183


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see

SCC description

Growth Indicator

2103001000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Anthracite Coal; Total: All Boiler Types

Commercial/Coal

2103002000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal; Total: All Boiler Types

Commercial/Coal

2103004000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Distillate Oil; Total: Boilers and IC Engines

Commercial/Distillate Fuel Oil

2103004001

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Distillate Oil; Boilers

Commercial/Distillate Fuel Oil

2103004002

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Distillate Oil; IC Engines

Commercial/Distillate Fuel Oil

2103005000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Residual Oil; Total: All Boiler Types

Commercial/Residual Fuel Oil

2103006000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Natural Gas; Total: Boilers and IC Engines

Commercial/Natural Gas

2103007000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG); Total: All Combustor Types

Commercial/Propane

2103008000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Wood; Total: All Boiler Types

Commercial/Renewable
Energy

2103010000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Process Gas; POTW Digester Gas-fired Boilers

Commercial/Total Energy

2103011000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional;
Kerosene; Total: All Combustor Types

Commercial/Kerosene

2104001000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Anthracite Coal;
Total: All Combustor Types

Residential/Coal

2104002000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential;
Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal; Total: All Combustor Types

Residential/Coal

2104004000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Distillate Oil;
Total: All Combustor Types

Residential/Distillate Fuel Oil

2104006000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Natural Gas;
Total: All Combustor Types

Residential/Natural Gas

2104007000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Liquified
Petroleum Gas (LPG); Total: All Combustor Types

Residential/Propane

2104011000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Residential; Kerosene; Total:
All Heater Types

Residential/Distillate Fuel Oil

2301000000

Industrial Processes; Chemical Manufacturing: SIC 28; All
Processes; Total

EMPIND8-9 (Bulk Chemicals;
Other Chemical Products);
REVIND 15-24

2301010000

Industrial Processes; Chemical Manufacturing: SIC 28; Industrial
Inorganic Chemical Manufacturing; Total

EMPIND8 (Bulk Chemicals);
REVIND15

2301020000

Industrial Processes; Chemical Manufacturing: SIC 28; Process
Emissions from Synthetic Fibers Manuf (NAPAP cat. 107); Total

EMPIND8 (Bulk Chemicals);
REVIND18

184


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see

SCC description

Growth Indicator

2302000000

Industrial Processes; Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20; All
Processes; Total

EMPIND1-2 (Food Products;
Beverage & Tobacco
Products); REVIND2-6

2302010000

Industrial Processes; Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20; Meat
Products; Total

EMPIND1 (Food Products);
REVIND4

2302040000

Industrial Processes; Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20; Grain
Mill Products; Total

EMPIND1 (Food Products);
REVIND2

2302050000

Industrial Processes; Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20; Bakery
Products; Total

EMPIND1 (Food Products);
REVIND5

2302070000

Industrial Processes; Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;
Fermentation/Beverages; Total

EMPIND2 (Beverage &
Tobacco Products); REVIND6

2302070001

Industrial Processes; Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;
Fermentation/Beverages; Breweries

EMPIND2 (Beverage &
Tobacco Products); REVIND6

2302070005

Industrial Processes; Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;
Fermentation/Beverages; Wineries

EMPIND2 (Beverage &
Tobacco Products); REVIND6

2302070010

Industrial Processes; Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;
Fermentation/Beverages; Distilleries

EMPIND2 (Beverage &
Tobacco Products); REVIND6

2302080000

Industrial Processes; Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;
Miscellaneous Food and Kindred Products; Total

EMPIND1 (Food Products);
REVIND5

2302080002

Industrial Processes; Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20;
Miscellaneous Food and Kindred Products; Refrigeration

EMPIND1 (Food Products);
REVIND5

2304000000

Industrial Processes; Secondary Metal Production: SIC 33; All
Processes; Total

EMPIND13 (Primary Metals);
REVIND33-35

2305000000

Industrial Processes; Mineral Processes: SIC 32; All Processes;
Total

EMPIND12 (Nonmetallic
Minerals); REVIND28-32

2306000000

Industrial Processes; Petroleum Refining: SIC 29; All Processes;
Total

EMPIND10 (Petroleum and
Coal Products); REVIND25-26

2306010000

Industrial Processes; Petroleum Refining: SIC 29; Asphalt Mixing
Plants and Paving/Roofing Materials; Asphalt Paving/Roofing
Materials: Total

EMPIND10 (Petroleum and
Coal Products); REVIND25-26

2306010100

Industrial Processes; Petroleum Refining: SIC 29; Asphalt Mixing
Plants and Paving/Roofing Materials; Asphalt Mixing Plants: Total

EMPIND10 (Petroleum and
Coal Products); REVIND25-26

2307000000

Industrial Processes; Wood Products: SIC 24; All Processes; Total

EMPIND4 (Wood Products);
REVIND8

2307020000

Industrial Processes; Wood Products: SIC 24; Sawmills/Planing
Mills; Total

EMPIND4 (Wood Products);
REVIND8

2308000000

Industrial Processes; Rubber/Plastics: SIC 30; All Processes; Total

EMPIND11 (Plastics and
Rubber Products); REVIND27

2309000000

Industrial Processes; Fabricated Metals: SIC 34; All Processes;
Total

EMPIND14 (Fabricated Metal
Products); REVIND36

185


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see

SCC description

Growth Indicator

2311010000

Industrial Processes; Construction: SIC 15 -17; Residential; Total

EMPIND25-27 (Construction:
Building, Heavy/Civil
Engineering, Speciality Trade);
REVIND48

2311020000

Industrial Processes; Construction: SIC 15 -17;
Industrial/Commercial/Institutional; Total

EMPIND25-27 (Construction:
Building, Heavy/Civil
Engineering, Speciality Trade);
REVIND48

2312000000

Industrial Processes; Machinery: SIC 35; All Processes; Total

EMPIND15 (Machinery);
REVIND37

2325000000

Industrial Processes; Mining and Quarrying: SIC 10 and SIC 14; All
Processes; Total

EMPIND24 (Other Mining and
Quarrying); REVIND47

2325020000

Industrial Processes; Mining and Quarrying: SIC 10 and SIC 14;
Crushed and Broken Stone; Total

EMPIND24 (Other Mining and
Quarrying); REVIND47

2325030000

Industrial Processes; Mining and Quarrying: SIC 10 and SIC 14;
Sand and Gravel; Total

EMPIND24 (Other Mining and
Quarrying); REVIND47

2325060000

Industrial Processes; Mining and Quarrying: SIC 10 and SIC 14;
Lead Ore Mining and Milling; Total

EMPIND24 (Other Mining and
Quarrying); REVIND47

2399000000

Industrial Processes; Industrial Processes: NEC; Industrial
Processes: NEC; Total

EMPIND19 (Miscellaneous
Manufacturing); REVIND41

2401010000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Textile Products: SIC 22;
Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND3 (Textiles, Apparel,
and Leather); REVIND7

2401015000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Factory Finished Wood: SIC
2426 thru 242; Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND4 (Wood Products);
REVIND8

2401020000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Wood Furniture: SIC 25;
Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND5 (Furniture and
Related Products); REVIND9

2401025000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Metal Furniture: SIC 25;
Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND5 (Furniture and
Related Products); REVIND9

2401030000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Paper: SIC 26; Total: All
Solvent Types

EMPIND6 (Paper Products);
REVIND10

2401035000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Plastic Products: SIC 308;
Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND11 (Plastics and
Rubber Products); REVIND27

2401040000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Metal Cans: SIC 341; Total:
All Solvent Types

EMPIND14 (Fabricated Metal
Products); REVIND36

2401045000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Metal Coils: SIC 3498; Total:
All Solvent Types

EMPIND14 (Fabricated Metal
Products); REVIND36

2401050000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Miscellaneous Finished
Metals: SIC 34 - (341 + 3498); Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND14 (Fabricated Metal
Products); REVIND36

2401055000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Machinery and Equipment:
SIC 35; Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND15 (Machinery);
REVIND37

2401060000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Large Appliances: SIC 363;
Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND18 (Appliance and
Electrical Equipment);
REVIND40

186


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see

SCC description

Growth Indicator

2401065000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Electronic and Other
Electrical: SIC 36 - 363; Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND18 (Appliance and
Electrical Equipment);
REVIND40

2401070000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Motor Vehicles: SIC 371;
Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND17 (Transportation
Equipment); REVIND39

2401075000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Aircraft: SIC 372; Total: All
Solvent Types

EMPIND17 (Transportation
Equipment); REVIND39

2401080000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Marine: SIC 373; Total: All
Solvent Types

EMPIND17 (Transportation
Equipment); REVIND39

2401085000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Railroad: SIC 374; Total: All
Solvent Types

EMPIND17 (Transportation
Equipment); REVIND39

2401090000

Solvent Utilization; Surface Coating; Miscellaneous
Manufacturing; Total: All Solvent Types

EMPIND19 (Miscellaneous
Manufacturing); REVIND41

2415000000

Solvent Utilization; Degreasing; All Processes/All Industries; Total:
All Solvent Types

EMPIND19 (Miscellaneous
Manufacturing); REVIND41

2440000000

Solvent Utilization; Miscellaneous Industrial; All Processes; Total:
All Solvent Types

EMPIND19 (Miscellaneous
Manufacturing); REVIND41

2461850000

Solvent Utilization; Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial;
Pesticide Application: Agricultural; All Processes

EMPIND20 (Crop Production);
REVIND42

2501000000

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; All Storage Types: Breathing Loss; Total: All Products

Total Energy/Petroleum and
Other Liquids Subtotal

2501000120

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; All Storage Types: Breathing Loss; Gasoline

Total Energy/Motor Gasoline

2501050000

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Bulk Terminals: All Evaporative Losses; Total: All
Products

Total Energy/Petroleum and
Other Liquids Subtotal

2501050120

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Bulk Terminals: All Evaporative Losses; Gasoline

Total Energy/Motor Gasoline

2501055120

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Bulk Plants: All Evaporative Losses; Gasoline

Total Energy/Motor Gasoline

2501060051

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage 1: Submerged Filling

Total Energy/Motor Gasoline

2501060052

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage 1: Splash Filling

Total Energy/Motor Gasoline

2501060053

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage 1: Balanced Submerged
Filling

Total Energy/Motor Gasoline

2501060201

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Underground Tank: Breathing
and Emptying

Total Energy/Motor Gasoline

2501070053

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Diesel Service Stations; Stage 1: Balanced Submerged
Filling

Transportation/Distillate Fuel
Oil

187


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see

SCC description

Growth Indicator

2501080050

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Airports : Aviation Gasoline; Stage 1: Total

Transportation/Other
Petroleum

2501080100

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Airports : Aviation Gasoline; Stage 2: Total

Transportation/Other
Petroleum

2501080201

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; Airports : Aviation Gasoline; Underground Tank:
Breathing and Emptying

Transportation/Other
Petroleum

2501995120

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage; All Storage Types: Working Loss; Gasoline

Total Energy/Motor Gasoline

2505000030

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; All Transport Types; Crude Oil

Total Energy/Petroleum and
Other Liquids Subtotal

2505010000

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Rail Tank Car; Total: All Products

Total Energy/Petroleum and
Other Liquids Subtotal

2505020000

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Marine Vessel; Total: All Products

Total Energy/Petroleum and
Other Liquids Subtotal

2505020030

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Marine Vessel; Crude Oil

Total Energy/Petroleum and
Other Liquids Subtotal

2505020060

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Marine Vessel; Residual Oil

Total Energy/Residual Fuel Oil

2505020090

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Marine Vessel; Distillate Oil

Total Energy/Distillate Fuel Oil

2505020120

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Marine Vessel; Gasoline

Total Energy/Motor Gasoline

2505020150

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Marine Vessel; Jet Naphtha

Total Energy/Jet Fuel

2505020180

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Marine Vessel; Kerosene

Total Energy/Kerosene

2505030120

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Truck; Gasoline

Transportation/Motor
Gasoline

2505040000

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Pipeline; Total: All Products

Total Energy/Petroleum and
Other Liquids Subtotal

2505040120

Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Transport; Pipeline; Gasoline

Total Energy/Motor Gasoline

2510000000

Storage and Transport; Organic Chemical Storage; All Storage
Types: Breathing Loss; Total: All Products

EMPIND8 (Bulk Chemicals);
REVIND16

2510050000

Storage and Transport; Organic Chemical Storage; Bulk
Stations/Terminals: Breathing Loss; Total: All Products

EMPIND8 (Bulk Chemicals);
REVIND16

2515040000

Storage and Transport; Organic Chemical Transport; Pipeline;
Total: All Products

EMPIND8 (Bulk Chemicals);
REVIND16

2520010000

Storage and Transport; Inorganic Chemical Storage;
Commercial/Industrial: Breathing Loss; Total: All Products

EMPIND8 (Bulk Chemicals);
REVIND15

2801000000

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops;
Agriculture - Crops; Total

EMPIND20 (Crop Production);
REVIND42

188


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SCC

SCC description

Growth Indicator

2801000003

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops;
Agriculture - Crops; Tilling

EMPIND20 (Crop Production);
REVIND42

2801000005

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops;
Agriculture - Crops; Harvesting

EMPIND20 (Crop Production);
REVIND42

2801000008

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops;
Agriculture - Crops; Transport

EMPIND20 (Crop Production);
REVIND42

2801520000

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops;
Orchard Heaters; Total, all fuels

EMPIND21 (Other
Agriculture); REVIND44

2801530000

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agriculture Production - Crops;
Country Grain Elevators; Total

EMPIND21 (Other
Agriculture); REVIND44

2802004001

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agricultural Crop Usage; Agriculture
Silage; Storage

EMPIND21 (Other
Agriculture); REVIND44

2802004002

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agricultural Crop Usage; Agriculture
Silage; Mixing

EMPIND21 (Other
Agriculture); REVIND44

2802004003

Miscellaneous Area Sources; Agricultural Crop Usage; Agriculture
Silage; Feeding

EMPIND21 (Other
Agriculture); REVIND44

4.2.3.7 Solvents (np_solvents)

Packets:

nonpoint_projection_packet_2022_platform_2022hc_to_2026_updates_24dec2024_csv_24dec2024_v0

Solvent emissions were projected in a way similar to how the nonpt sector was projected. Many SCCs in
np_solvents that are projected using human population growth are shown in Table 4-18. For a complete
list of solvent growth surrogates by SCC, see the NP_AnalyticYr_Crosswalk spreadsheet in the reports /
nonpoint folder on the FTP site.

Table 4-18. SCCs in np_solvents that use Human Population Growth for Projections

SCC

SCC Descriptions

2401001000

Solvent Utilization;Surface Coating;Architectural Coatings;Total: All Solvent Types

2401005000

Solvent Utilization;Surface Coating;Auto Refinishing: SIC 7532;Total: All Solvent Types

2401005700

Solvent Utilization;Surface Coating;Auto Refinishing: SIC 7532;Top Coats

2401005800

Solvent Utilization;Surface Coating;Auto Refinishing: SIC 7532;Clean-up Solvents

2401100000

Solvent Utilization;Surface Coating;lndustrial Maintenance Coatings;Total: All Solvent
Types

2401200000

Solvent Utilization;Surface Coating;Other Special Purpose Coatings;Total: All Solvent
Types

2420000000

Solvent Utilization;Dry Cleaning;AII Processes;Total: All Solvent Types

2420000055

Solvent Utilization;Dry Cleaning;AII Processes;Perchloroethylene

2420000999

Solvent Utilization;Dry Cleaning;AII Processes;Solvents: NEC

2425000000

Solvent Utilization;Graphic Arts;AII Processes;Total: All Solvent Types

2440000000

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Industrial;All Processes;Total: All Solvent Types

2460030999

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial;Lighter
Fluid, Fire Starter, Other Fuels;Total: All Volatile Chemical Product Types

189


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see

SCC Descriptions

2460100000

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial;AII
Personal Care Products;Total: All Solvent Types

2460200000

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial;AII
Household Products;Total: All Solvent Types

2460400000

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial;AII
Automotive Aftermarket Products;Total: All Solvent Types

2460500000

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial;AII
Coatings and Related Products;Total: All Solvent Types

2460600000

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial;AII
Adhesives and Sealants;Total: All Solvent Types

2460800000

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial;AII FIFRA
Related Products;Total: All Solvent Types

2460900000

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and
Commercial;Miscellaneous Products (Not Otherwise Covered);Total: All Solvent Types

2461023000

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial;Asphalt Roofing;Total: All
Solvent Types

2461100000

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial;Solvent Reclamation: All
Processes;Total: All Solvent Types

2461800001

Solvent Utilization;Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial;Pesticide Application: All
Processes;Surface Application

Table 4-19. Impact of projection factors on np_solvents emissions

Year

Pollutant

Inventory
Emissions

Final
Emissions

Emissions
Change

Emissions %
Change

2026

VOC

2,634,832

2,712,204

77,371

2.9%

4.2.3.8 Oil and Gas Sources (np_oilgas, pt_oilgas)

Packets:

np_oilgas_projection_packet_2026hc_KSappend_csv_llsep2024_v0
pt_oilgas_projection_packet_2026hc_KSappend_csv_21feb2025_vl

Analytic year projections for the 2022vl platform were generated for point and nonpoint oil and gas
sources for 2026. This projection consisted of three components: (1) applying facility closures to the
pt_oilgas sector using the CoST CLOSURE packet (see Section 4.2.4); (2) using historical and/or forecast
activity data to generate analytic-year emissions before applicable control technologies are applied
using the CoST PROJECTION packet; and (3) estimating impacts of applicable control technologies on
analytic-year emissions using the CoST CONTROL packet. Applying the CLOSURE packet to the pt_oilgas
sector resulted in small emissions changes to the national summary shown in Table 4-5.

For pt_oilgas growth, the oil and gas sources were separated into production-related and pipeline-
related sources by NAICS and SCC. These sources were further subdivided by fuel-type and by NAICS and
SCC into either OIL, natural gas (NGAS), or BOTH (where oil or natural gas fuels are possible). The next
two subsections describe the growth component of the process.

190


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For np_oilgas growth oil and gas sources were separated into production-related and exploration-
related sources. These sources were further separated into oil, natural gas or coal bed methane
production related.

Production-related Sources (pt_oilgas, np_oilgas)

The growth factors for the production-related NAICS-SCC combinations were generated in a two-step
process. The first step used historical production data at the state-level to get state-level short-term
trends or factors from 2022 to year 2023. These historical data were acquired from EIA from the
following links:

•	Historical Natural Gas: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng sum Isum a epgO few mmcf a.htm

•	Historical Crude Oil: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet crd crpdn adc mbbl a.htm

•	Historical CBM: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng prod coalbed si a.htm

The second step involved using the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2023 reference case for the Lower 48
forecast production tables to project from the year 2023 to the desired analytic year. Specifically, AEO
2023 Table 58 "Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region" and AEO 2023
Table 59 "Lower 48 Natural Gas Production and Supply Prices by Supply Region" were used in this
projection process. The AEO2023 forecast production is supplied for each EIA Oil and Gas Supply region
shown in Figure 4-1.

Figure 4-1. EIA Oil and Gas Supply Regions as of AEO2023

Pacific

The result of this second step is a growth factor for each Supply Region from 2023 to 2026. A Supply
Region mapping to FIPS cross-walk was developed so the regional growth factors could be applied for
each FIPS (for pt_oilgas) or to the county-level np_oilgas inventories. Note that portions of Texas are in

191


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three different Supply Regions and portions of New Mexico are in two different supply regions. The
state-level historical factor (from 2022 to 2023) was then multiplied by the Supply Region factor to
produce a state-level or FlPS-level factor to grow from 2023 to 2026. This process was done using crude
production forecast information to generate a factor to apply to oil-production related SCCs or NAICS-
SCC combinations and it was also done using natural gas production forecast information to generate a
factor to apply to natural gas-production related NAICS-SCC combinations. For the SCC and NAICS-SCC
combinations that are designated "BOTH" the average of the oil-production and natural-gas production
factors was calculated and applied to these specific combinations.

Texas provided updated basin specific production for 2022 and 2023 to allow for a better calculation of
the estimated growth for this three-year period

(http://webapps.rrc.texas.gov/PDQ/generalReportAction.do). The AEO2023 was used as described
above for the three AEO Oil and Gas Supply Regions that include Texas counties to grow from 2023 to
analytic year.

The state of New Mexico is broken up into two AEO Oil and Gas Supply Regions. County production data
for New Mexico was obtained from their state website

(https://wwwapps.emnrd.nm.gov/ocd/ocdpermitting/Reporting/Production/CountyProductionlniection
Summary.aspx ) so that a better estimate of growth from 2022 to 2023 for the AEO Supply Regions in
New Mexico could be calculated.

The state of Kansas provided county specific growth factors for production-related sources. Kansas
used historical well information to derive their growth factors for oil and gas SCCs.

Transmission-related Sources (pt_oilgas)

Projection factors for transmissions-related sources were generated using the same AEO2023 tables
used for production sources. These growth factors sources were developed solely using AEO 2023 data
for the entire lower 48 states. For each analytic year, one national factor was used for oil transmission
and another national factor was used for natural gas transmission. The 2022 to 2026 growth for oil
transmissions is 9.3% and for natural gas transmission is -0.5%. The impact of the projection factors on
the pt_oilgas emissions is shown in Table 4-20.

Table 4-20. Impact of projections on pt_oilgas emissions





Inventory

Final

Emissions

Emissions

Year

Pollutant

Emissions

Emissions

Change

% Change

2026

CO

164,139

169,414

5,275

3.2%

2026

NH3

322

305

-17

-5.3%

2026

NOX

330,214

338,671

8,457

2.6%

2026

PM10-PRI

12,959

13,456

497

3.8%

2026

PM25-PRI

11,477

11,841

364

3.2%

2026

S02

29,576

31,308

1,732

5.9%

2026

VOC

194,885

207,653

12,767

6.6%

Exploration-related Sources (np_oilgas)

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Years 2018, 2019 and 2022 exploration activity were averaged and the resulting 3-year average activity
used in the 2020NEI version of the Oil and Gas Tool to generate exploration emissions for 2026. Table
4-21 provides a high-level national summary of the emissions data for the three year-average. This
three-year averaged-activity derived emissions data were used in 2022vl because they reflected the
most recent average of exploration activity and emissions. Note that CoST was not used to perform this
projection step for exploration sources, but is used to apply controls to exploration sources for each
analytic year. The change in emissions from 2022 to 2026 due to the impact of the projections is shown
in Table 4-22.

Table 4-21. Three year average of national oil and gas exploration emissions

Pollutant

Emissions



(tons)

CO

14,809

NH3

15

NOX

52,611

PM10-PRI

1,075

PM25-PRI

1,039

SO 2

6,383

VOC

106,427

Table 4-22. Impact of projections on np_oilgas emissions

Year

Pollutant

Inventory
Emissions

Final
Emissions

Emissions
Change

Emissions %
Change

2026

CO

680,698

717,896

37,198

5.5%

2026

NH3

3,771

4,287

516

13.7%

2026

NOX

543,771

579,378

35,607

6.5%

2026

PM10-PRI

9,481

9,856

375

4.0%

2026

PM25-PRI

9,465

9,841

376

4.0%

2026

SO 2

278,368

305,846

27,478

9.9%

2026

VOC

2,501,145

2,710,839

209,694

8.4%

4.2.3.9 Non-EGU point sources (ptnonipm)

Packets:

ptnonipm_projection_packet_2022vl_revision_2022hc_to_2026_02jan2025_21feb2025_vl
Projection_2022_2026_for_2022vl_ptnonipm_NJ_overrides_20dec2024_v0

Projection factors for ptnonipm were developed by industrial sector from AEO 2023 to project emissions
from 2022 to 2026. Emissions were mapped to AEO categories by NAICS and SCC (combination of NAICS
and SCC first, SCC only after that) and projection factors were created using a ratio between the base
year and projection year estimates from each specific AEO category. SCC/NAICS combinations with
emissions >100tons/year for any CAP were mapped to AEO sector and fuel. Table 4-23 details the
AEO2023 tables used to map SCCs to AEO categories for the projections of industrial sources. The impact
of the projection packets other than the refinery adjustments from 2022 to 2026 is shown in Table 4-24.

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The NJ override packets act to hold facilities flat which would have otherwise been decreased (state
comment) so a table for that really isn't applicable. The computation of the refinery adjustments is
described in the latter part of this subsection.

Table 4-23. Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2023 tables used to project industrial sources

AEO 2023Table#

AEO Table name

2

Energy Consumption by Sector and Source

24

Refining Industry Energy Consumption

25

Food Industry Energy Consumption

26

Paper Industry Energy Consumption

27

Bulk Chemical Industry Energy Consumption

28

Glass Industry Energy Consumption

29

Cement Industry Energy Consumption

30

Iron and Steel Industries Energy Consumption

31

Aluminum Industry Energy Consumption

32

Metal Based Durables Energy Consumption

33

Other Manufacturing Sector Energy Consumption

34

Nonmanufacturing Sector Energy Consumption

Table 4-24. Impact of projections other than refinery adjustments on ptnonipm emissions

Year

Pollutant

Inventory
Emissions

Final
Emissions

Emissions
Change

Emissions %
Change

2026

CO

1,191,726

1,161,131

-30,595

-2.6%

2026

NH3

60,624

60,081

-544

-0.9%

2026

NOX

733,122

715,388

-17,734

-2.4%

2026

PM10-PRI

341,507

337,484

-4,023

-1.2%

2026

PM25-PRI

220,869

217,184

-3,684

-1.7%

2026

SO 2

429,542

418,997

-10,545

-2.5%

2026

VOC

720,157

700,431

-19,726

-2.7%

4.2.3.10 Railroads (rail)

Packets:

Projection_rail_2022hc_to_2026_future_year_16aug2024_v0

Rail projection factors are relatively flat. Rail emissions were projected based on factors derived for
categories of locomotives based on AEO (fuel use) growth rates including some adjustments. Table 4-25
shows the projection factors used for the various locomotive categories.

194


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Table 4-25. Projection factors for Rail SCCs from the 2022 Base Year

STB R-l Fuel Use Data
Trends 2005-2023

Passenger Rail

SCCs:
2285002008,
2285002009

2022 Switcher &
class 2/3 SCCs:
28500201,
2285002007

Line Haul 2022
Projection Factors
SCCs: 2285002006

2022

1.000

1.000

1.000

2023

1.038

0.986

0.986

2024

1.060

1.026

1.045

2025

1.075

1.002

1.027

2026

1.091

0.959

0.991

4.2.3.11 Residential Wood Combustion (rwc)

For residential wood combustion emissions in the 2022vl platform, it was determined to hold the
emissions flat at the base year levels for 2026.

4.2.4 CoST CONTROL Packets (nonpt, np_oilgas, ptnonipm, pt_oilgas,
np_sol vents)

The final step in the projection of emissions to an analytic year is the application of any control
technologies or programs. For analytic-year New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) controls (e.g., oil
and gas, Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE), Natural Gas Turbines, and Process Heaters),
we attempted to control only new sources/equipment using the following equation to account for
growth and retirement of existing sources and the differences between the new and existing source
emission rates.

Qn = Qo { [ (1 + Pf) t-l]Fn + (l-Ri)tFe + [l-(l-Ri)t]Fn]}	Equation 4-1

where:

Qn = emissions in projection year
Qo = emissions in base year

Pf = growth rate expressed as ratio (e.g., 1.5=50 percent cumulative growth)
t = number of years between base and analytic years
Fn = emission factor ratio for new sources

Ri = retirement rate, expressed as whole number (e.g., 3.3 percent=0.033)

Fe = emission factor ratio for existing sources

The first term in Equation 4-1 represents new source growth and controls, the second term accounts for
retirement and controls for existing sources, and the third term accounts for replacement source
controls. For computing the CoST % reductions (Control Efficiency) for nonpt and ptnonipm sectors, the
simplified Equation 4-2 was used for analytic year projections:

„ , . . .... ir.n /„ [(p/aoa*—i)xFrt+(i-Hi)12+fi-(i-R012)xFn]\	Equation 4-2

Control Efficiency2o2ar(%) = 100 x (1 - 1 —					—1	—L	M

V	"/2D2Jf	f

195


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For example, to compute the control efficiency for 2026 from a base year of 2022 the existing source
emissions factor (Fe) is set to 1.0; 2026 (the analytic year) minus 2022 (the base year) is 4, and the new
source emission factor (Fn) is the ratio of the NSPS emission factor to the existing emission factor. Note
for the np_oilgas and pt_oilgas sectors the Fe is not assumed to be 1.0 for the Oil and Gas NSPS.

The NSPS are applied to sectors and with the specified retirement rates (R) as follows:

•	The Oil and Gas NSPS from 2024 is applied to the np_oilgas and pt_oilgas sectors with no
assumed retirement rate.

•	The RICE NSPS for Compression Ignition (CI) engines that originated in 2006 but was
amended as recently as 2024 is applied to the np_oilgas, pt_oilgas, nonpt, and ptnonipm
sectors with an assumed retirement rate of 40 years (2.5%). The same retirement rate was
used for the RICE NSPS for spark ignition engines that originated in 2008 and was amended as
recently as 2024.

•	The Gas Turbines NSPS that originated as subpart GG I 1979 but for subpart KKKK originated
in 2006 is applied to the pt_oilgas and ptnonipm sectors with an assumed retirement rate of
45 years (2.2%).

•	The Process Heaters NSPS with origination date around 2006-2010 is applied to the pt_oilgas
and ptnonipm sectors with an assumed retirement rate of 30 years (3.3%).

Table 4-26 shows the values for the emission factors for new sources (Fn) with respect to each NSPS
regulation and other conditions within. Further information about the application of NSPS controls can
be found in Section 4 of the Additional Updates to Emissions Inventories for the Version 6.3, 2011
Emissions Modeling Platform for the Year 2023 technical support document (EPA, 2017).

Table 4-26. Assumed new source emission factor ratios for NSPS rules

NSPS

Pollutants

Applied where?

New Source Emission
Factor(Fn)

Oil and Gas

voc

Storage Tanks

Varies by state-SCC

Oil and Gas

voc

Gas Well Completions: 95% control (regardless)

0.05

Oil and Gas

voc

Pneumatic controllers, not high-bleed >6scfm or
low-bleed

Varies by state-SCC

Oil and Gas

voc

Pneumatic controllers, high-bleed >6scfm or low-
bleed

Varies by state-SCC

Oil and Gas

voc

Compressor Seals

Varies by state-SCC

Oil and Gas

voc

Fugitive Emissions: 60% Valves, flanges,
connections, pumps, open-ended lines, and other

Varies by state-SCC

RICE

NOx

Lean burn: PA, all other states

0.25, 0.606

RICE

NOx

Rich Burn: PA, all other states

0.1, 0.069

RICE

NOx

Combined (average) LB/RB: PA, other states

0.175, 0.338

RICE

CO

Lean burn: PA, all other states

1.0 (n/a), 0.889

RICE

CO

Rich Burn: PA, all other states

0.15, 0.25

RICE

CO

Combined (average) LB/RB: PA, other states

0.575, 0.569

RICE

VOC

Lean burn: PA, all other states

0.125, n/a

RICE

VOC

Rich Burn: PA, all other states

0.1, n/a

RICE

voc

Combined (average) LB/RB: PA, other states

0.1125, n/a

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NSPS

Pollutants

Applied where?

New Source Emission
Factor(Fn)

Gas Turbines

NOx

California and NOx SIP Call states

0.595

Gas Turbines

NOx

All other states

0.238

Process
Heaters

NOx

Nationally to Process Heater SCCs

0.41

4.2.4.1 Oil and Gas NSPS (np_oilgas, pt_oilgas)

Packets:

Control_2022_2026_OilGas_NSPS_np_oilgas_2022vlplatform_03dec2024_v0
Control_2022_2026_OilGas_NSPS_np_oilgas_2022vlplatform_KSupdate_03dec2024_v0
Control_2022_2026_OilGas_NSPS_pt_oilgas_2022vlplatform_03dec2024_v0
Control_2022_2026_OilGas_NSPS_pt_oilgas_2022vlplatform_KSupdate_03dec2024_v0

New packets to reflect the Oil and Gas NSPS were developed for the 2022 platform. For oil and gas NSPS
controls, except for gas well completions (a 95 percent control), the assumption of no equipment
retirements through year 2032 dictates that NSPS controls are applied to the growth component only of
any PROJECTION factors. For example, if a growth factor is 1.5 for storage tanks (indicating a 50 percent
increase activity), then, using Table 4-26, the 70.3 percent VOC NSPS control to this new growth will
result in a 23.4 percent control: 100 *(70.3 * (1.5 -1) / 1.5); this yields an "effective" growth rate
(combined PROJECTION and CONTROL) of 1.1485, or a 70.3 percent reduction from 1.5 to 1.0. The
impacts of all non-drilling completion VOC NSPS controls are therefore greater where growth in oil and
gas production is assumed highest.

Conversely, for oil and gas basins with assumed negative growth in activity/production, VOC NSPS
controls will be limited to well completions only. These reductions are year-specific because projection
factors for these sources are year-specific. Note that Fe and Fn emissions factor ratios for oil and gas
emissions vary by state and by SCC in this emissions modeling platform. In some cases, pneumatic
devices/pumps emissions are estimated to reach 100% control based on information available at the
time, thus emissions are zero.

The packets with KSupdate in their names cover only the state of Kansas, while the other packets cover
all other states. For details on growth and control factors used in CoST see

https://gaftp.epa.gov/Air/emismod/2022/vl/reports/proiection controls/final analytic/ for report
summaries.

Table 4-27 shows the emission reductions for the oil and gas sectors as a result of applying the oil and
gas NSPS. Table 4-28 and Table 4-29 list the SCCs in the np_oilgas and pt_oilgas sectors for which the Oil
and Gas NSPS controls were. Note that controls are applied to both production and exploration-related
SCCs.) For np_oilgas, the exploration-related pre-CoST emissions for 2022 are computed using an
average across multiple years and are different than the 2022hc emissions. Thus, the two sets of
emissions are shown in different columns.

197


-------
Table 4-27. Emissions reductions for the oil and gas sectors due to applying the Oil and Gas NSPS

Sector

Year

Pollutant

2022hc

2022 pre-CoST
emissions

Emissions change
from 2022

%

change

np_°ilgas

2026

voc

2,767,230

2,788,266

-892,682

-32.0%

pt_°ilgas

2026

voc

211,419

211,419

-14,701

-7.0%

Table 4-28. SCCs in np_oilgas for which the Oil and Gas NSPS controls were applied

see

PRODUCT

OG_NSPS_SCC

TOOL OR
STATE

Source category

SCC Description*











Crude Petroleum;Oil Well Tanks -











Flashing &

2310010200

OIL

1. Storage Tanks

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Standing/Working/Breathing





3. Pneumatic





Crude Petroleum;Oil Well

2310010300

OIL

Devices

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Pneumatic Devices





5a. Associated Gas





On-Shore Oil Production;Associated

2310011001

OIL

Venting

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Gas Venting











On-Shore Oil Production;Storage

2310011020

OIL

1. Storage Tanks

STATE

PRODUCTION

Tanks: Crude Oil

2310011450

OIL

4. Fugitives

STATE

PRODUCTION

On-Shore Oil Production;Wellhead











On-Shore Oil Production;Fugitives:

2310011500

OIL

4. Fugitives

STATE

PRODUCTION

All Processes











On-Shore Oil Production;Fugitives:

2310011501

OIL

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Connectors











On-Shore Oil Production;Fugitives:

2310011502

OIL

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Flanges











On-Shore Oil Production;Fugitives:

2310011503

OIL

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Open Ended Lines











On-Shore Oil Production;Fugitives:

2310011505

OIL

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Valves











On-Shore Gas Production;Storage

2310021010

NGAS

1. Storage Tanks

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Tanks: Condensate





3. Pneumatic





On-Shore Gas Production;Gas Well

2310021300

NGAS

Devices

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Pneumatic Devices





3. Pneumatic





On-Shore Gas Production;Gas Well

2310021310

NGAS

Devices

STATE

PRODUCTION

Pneumatic Pumps











On-Shore Gas Production;Fugitives:

2310021501

NGAS

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Connectors











On-Shore Gas Production;Fugitives:

2310021502

NGAS

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Flanges











On-Shore Gas Production;Fugitives:

2310021503

NGAS

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Open Ended Lines











On-Shore Gas Production;Fugitives:

2310021505

NGAS

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Valves











On-Shore Gas Production;Fugitives:

2310021506

NGAS

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Other











On-Shore Gas Production;Fugitives:

2310021509

NGAS

4. Fugitives

STATE

PRODUCTION

All Processes











On-Shore Gas Production;Gas Well

2310021602

NGAS

2. Well Completions

STATE

EXPLORATION

Venting - Recompletions











Coal Bed Methane Natural

2310023010

CBM

1. Storage Tanks

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Gas;Storage Tanks: Condensate

198


-------
SCC

PRODUCT

OG_NSPS_SCC

TOOL OR
STATE

Source category

SCC Description*





3. Pneumatic





Coal Bed Methane Natural

2310023300

CBM

Devices

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Gas;Pneumatic Devices





3. Pneumatic





Coal Bed Methane Natural

2310023310

CBM

Devices

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Gas;Pneumatic Pumps











Coal Bed Methane Natural

2310023509

CBM

4. Fugitives

STATE

PRODUCTION

Gas;Fugitives











Coal Bed Methane Natural

2310023511

CBM

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Gas;Fugitives: Connectors











Coal Bed Methane Natural

2310023512

CBM

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Gas;Fugitives: Flanges











Coal Bed Methane Natural

2310023513

CBM

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Gas;Fugitives: Open Ended Lines











Coal Bed Methane Natural

2310023515

CBM

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Gas;Fugitives: Valves











Coal Bed Methane Natural

2310023516

CBM

4. Fugitives

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Gas;Fugitives: Other











Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas;CBM

2310023600

CBM

2. Well Completions

TOOL

EXPLORATION

Well Completion: All Processes





3. Pneumatic





On-Shore Oil Exploration;Oil Well

2310111401

OIL

Devices

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Pneumatic Pumps











On-Shore Oil Exploration;Oil Well

2310111700

OIL

2. Well Completions

TOOL

EXPLORATION

Completion: All Processes





3. Pneumatic





On-Shore Gas Exploration;Gas Well

2310121401

NGAS

Devices

TOOL

PRODUCTION

Pneumatic Pumps











On-Shore Gas Exploration;Gas Well

2310121700

NGAS

2. Well Completions

TOOL

EXPLORATION

Completion: All Processes











On-Shore Gas Exploration;Gas Well

2310121702

NGAS

2. Well Completions

STATE

EXPLORATION

Completion: Venting











On-Shore Gas Production -











Conventional;Storage Tanks:

2310321010

NGAS

1. Storage Tanks

STATE

PRODUCTION

Condensate











On-Shore Gas Production -











Unconventional;Storage Tanks:

2310421010

NGAS

1. Storage Tanks

STATE

PRODUCTION

Condensate

* All SCC descriptions in this table start with "Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and Production;"

Table 4-29. SCCs in pt_oilgas for which the Oil and Gas NSPS controls were applied

SCC

Fuel

OG_NSPS_
SCC

SCC Description*





2. Well

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Crude Oil Production;Well

31000101

OIL

Completions

Completion;;







Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Crude Oil Production;Valves:

31000124

OIL

4. Fugitives

General;;







Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Crude Oil Production;Relief

31000125

OIL

4. Fugitives

Valves;;







Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Crude Oil Production;Pump

31000126

OIL

4. Fugitives

Seals;;







Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Crude Oil Production;Flanges

31000127

OIL

4. Fugitives

and Connections;;





1. Storage

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Crude Oil Production;Storage

31000133

OIL

Tanks

Tank;;

199


-------
see

Fuel

OG_NSPS_

sec

SCC Description*

31000151

OIL

3. Pneumatic
Devices

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Crude Oil
Production;Pneumatic Controllers, Low Bleed;;

31000152

OIL

3. Pneumatic
Devices

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Crude Oil
Production;Pneumatic Controllers High Bleed >6 scfh;;

31000153

OIL

3. Pneumatic
Devices

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Crude Oil
Production;Pneumatic Controllers Intermittent Bleed;;

31000207

NGAS

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Valves: Fugitive Emissions;;

31000212

NGAS

1. Storage
Tanks

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Condensate Storage Tank;;

31000213

NGAS

1. Storage
Tanks

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Produced Water Storage Tank;;

31000214

NGAS

1. Storage
Tanks

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Natural Gas Liquids Storage Tank;;

31000220

NGAS

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas Production;AII
Equipt Leak Fugitives (Valves, Flanges, Connections, Seals, Drains;;

31000222

NGAS

2. Well
Completions

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas Production;Well
Completions;;

31000223

NGAS

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas Production;Relief
Valves;;

31000224

NGAS

3. Pneumatic
Devices

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas Production;Pump
Seals;;

31000225

NGAS

6.

Compressors

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Compressor Seals;;

31000226

NGAS

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Flanges and Connections;;

31000231

NGAS

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Fugitives: Drains;;

31000233

NGAS

3. Pneumatic
Devices

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Pneumatic Controllers, Low Bleed;;

31000234

NGAS

3. Pneumatic
Devices

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Pneumatic Controllers, High Bleed >6 scfh;;

31000235

NGAS

3. Pneumatic
Devices

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Pneumatic Controllers Intermittent Bleed;;

31000306

NGAS

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Processing;Process Valves;;

31000307

NGAS

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas Processing;Relief
Valves;;

31000308

NGAS

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas Processing;Open-
ended Lines;;

31000309

NGAS

6.

Compressors

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Processing;Compressor Seals;;

31000311

NGAS

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Processing;Flanges and Connections;;

31000312

NGAS

6a.

Centrifugal
Compressors

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Processing;Centrifugal Compressor;;

31000313

NGAS

6b.

Reciprocating
Compressors

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Processing;Reciprocating Compressor;;

31000506

OIL

1. Storage
Tanks

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Liquid Waste Treatment;Oil-
Water Separation Wastewater Holding Tanks;;

200


-------
see

Fuel

OG_NSPS_
SCC

SCC Description*

31088801

BOTH

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Fugitive Emissions;Specify in
Comments Field;;

31088811

BOTH

4. Fugitives

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Fugitive Emissions;Fugitive
Emissions;;

31700101

NGAS

3. Pneumatic
Devices

Industrial Processes;NGTS;Natural Gas Transmission and Storage
Facilities;Pneumatic Controllers Low Bleed;;

31700103

NGAS

3. Pneumatic
Devices

Industrial Processes;NGTS;Natural Gas Transmission and Storage
Facilities;Pneumatic Controllers Intermittent Bleed;;

* For all entries in this table, TOOL OR STATE = STATE and SRC_CAT = PRODUCTION; In the SCC description, IP is an
abbreviation for Industrial Processes and CE is an abbreviation for Chemical Evaporation

4.2.4.2 RICE NSPS (nonpt, ptnonipm, np_oilgas, pt_oilgas)

Packets:

Control_2022_2026_RICE_NSPS_np_oilgas_2022vlplatform_09sep2024_v0

Control_2022_2026_RICE_NSPS_np_oilgas_2022vlplatform_KSupdate_16oct2024_v0

Control_2022_2026_RICE_NSPS_pt_oilgas_2022vlplatform_09sep2024_v0

Control_2022_2026_RICE_NSPS_pt_oilgas_2022vlplatform_KSupdate_16oct2024_v0

Control_2022_2026_RICE_NSPS_nonpt_ptnonipm_2022vlplatform_07oct2024_vl

Multiple sectors are affected by the RICE NSPS controls (https://www.epa.gov/stationary-
engines/compliance-requirements-stationary-engines). For the pt_oilgas and np_oilgas sectors, year-
specific RICE NSPS factors were generated for 2026. New growth factors based on AEO2023 and state-
specific production data were calculated for the oil and gas sectors which were included in the
calculation of the new RICE NSPS control factors. Note that Kansas specific county growth factors were
used and therefore, the packets with KSupdate in their names are used in addition to the other packets
that contain data used for the rest of the states. For RICE NSPS controls, the EPA emission requirements
for stationary engines differ according to whether the engine is new or existing, whether the engine is
located at an area source or major source, and whether the engine is a compression ignition or a spark
ignition engine. Spark ignition engines are further subdivided by power cycle, two-stroke versus four-
stroke, and whether the engine is rich burn or lean burn. The NSPS reduction was applied to lean burn,
rich burn and "combined" engines using Equation 4-2 and information listed in Table 4-26.

Table 4-30, Table 4-31, Table 4-32 and Table 4-33 show the reductions in emissions in the nonpt,
ptnonipm, and np_oilgas and pt_oilgas sectors after the application of the RICE NSPS CONTROL packet.
Note that for nonpoint oil and gas, VOC reductions were only appropriate in the state of Pennsylvania.
For np_oilgas, the exploration-related pre-CoST emissions for 2022 are computed using an average
across multiple years and are different than the 2022hc emissions. Thus, the two sets of emissions are
shown in different columns in Table 4-32. Table 4-34, Table 4-35, and Table 4-36 show the SCCs to
which the NSPS controls are applied in the nonpt, ptnonipm, np_oilgas, and pt_oilgas sectors.

201


-------
Table 4-30. Emissions reductions in nonpt due to RICE NSPS

year

Poll

2022hc (tons)

Emissions changes
(tons)

% change

2026

CO

842,395

-5,684

-0.7%

2026

NOX

741,248

-10,601

-1.4%

2026

VOC

949,760

-55

0.0%

Table 4-31. Emissions reductions in ptnonipm due to the RICE NSPS

year

poll

2022hc (tons)

Emissions changes
(tons)

% change

2026

CO

1,207,678

-107

-0.01%

2026

NOX

780,504

-226

-0.03%

2026

VOC

732,606

-1

0.00%

Table 4-32. Emissions reductions in np_oilgas due to the RICE NSPS

Year

Poll

2022hc (tons)

2022 pre-CoST
emissions

Emissions
change

% change

2026

CO

705,089

695,507

-26,585

-3.8%

2026

NOX

679,016

596,382

-45,346

-7.6%

2026

VOC

2,767,230

2,788,266

-31

0.00%

Table 4-33. Emissions reductions in pt_oilgas due to the RICE NSPS

Year

Pollutant

2022hc (tons)

Emissions
change (tons)

% change

2026

CO

188,876

-4,942

-2.6%

2026

NOX

365,805

-11,614

-3.2%

2026

VOC

211,419

-45

-0.02%

Table 4-34. SCCs and Engine Types where RICE NSPS controls applied for nonpt and ptnonipm

see

Lean, Rich, or
Combined

SCCDESC

20200202

Combined

Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; Reciprocating

20200253

Rich

Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; 4-cycle Rich Burn

20200254

Lean

Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; 4-cycle Lean Burn

20200256

Lean

Internal Combustion Engines; Industrial; Natural Gas; 4-cycle Clean Burn

20300201

Combined

Internal Combustion Engines; Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas;
Reciprocating

31000203

Combined

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas
Production;Compressors (See also 310003-12 and -13)

2102006000

Combined

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Industrial; Natural Gas; Total: Boilers
and IC Engines

2103006000

Combined

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion; Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas;
Total: Boilers and IC Engines

202


-------
Table 4-35. Non-point Oil and Gas SCCs where RICE NSPS controls are applied



Lean /







see

Rich/
Combined

Product

Source Category

SCC Description









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and

2310020600

Combined

NGAS

PRODUCTION

Production;Natural Gas;Compressor Engines









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and









Production;On-Shore Gas Production;Natural Gas









Fired 4Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines 50 To

2310021202

Lean

NGAS

PRODUCTION

499 HP









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and









Production;On-Shore Gas Production;Total: All









Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Lean Burn Compressor

2310021209

Lean

NGAS

PRODUCTION

Engines









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and









Production;On-Shore Gas Production;Lateral

2310021251

Lean

NGAS

PRODUCTION

Compressors 4 Cycle Lean Burn









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and









Production;On-Shore Gas Production;Natural Gas









Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines 50 To

2310021302

Rich

NGAS

PRODUCTION

499 HP









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and









Production;On-Shore Gas Production;Total: All









Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor

2310021309

Rich

NGAS

PRODUCTION

Engines









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and









Production;On-Shore Gas Production;Lateral

2310021351

Rich

NGAS

PRODUCTION

Compressors 4 Cycle Rich Burn









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and









Production;Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas;CBM









Fired 4Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines 50 To

2310023202

Lean

CBM

PRODUCTION

499 HP









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and









Production;Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas;Lateral

2310023251

Lean

CBM

PRODUCTION

Compressors 4 Cycle Lean Burn









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and









Production;Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas;CBM









Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines 50 To

2310023302

Rich

CBM

PRODUCTION

499 HP









Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Exploration and









Production;Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas;Lateral

2310023351

Rich

CBM

PRODUCTION

Compressors 4 Cycle Rich Burn

Table 4-36. Point source SCCs in pt_oilgas sector where RICE NSPS controls applied

SCC

Lean, Rich, or
Combined

SCCDESC

20100202

Combined

Internal Combustion Engines;Electric Generation;Natural Gas;Reciprocating

20200202

Combined

Internal Combustion Engines;lndustrial;Natural Gas;Reciprocating

20200204

Combined

Internal Combustion Engines;lndustrial;Natural Gas;Reciprocating: Cogeneration

20200253

Rich

Internal Combustion Engines;lndustrial;Natural Gas;4-cycle Rich Burn

20200254

Lean

Internal Combustion Engines;lndustrial;Natural Gas;4-cycle Lean Burn

20200256

Combined

Internal Combustion Engines;lndustrial;Natural Gas;4-cycle Clean Burn

203


-------
see

Lean, Rich, or
Combined

SCCDESC

20201702

Combined

Internal Combustion Engines;lndustrial;Gasoline;Reciprocating Engine

20300201

Combined

Internal Combustion Engines;Commercial/lnstitutional;Natural Gas;Reciprocating

26500320

Combined

Internal Combustion Engines;Off-highway 4-stroke Gasoline Engines;lndustrial
Equipment;lndustrial Fork Lift: Gasoline Engine (4-stroke)

31000203

Combined

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas Production;Compressors
(See also 310003-12 and -13)

31000313

Combined

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Natural Gas Processing;Reciprocating
Compressor

4.2.4.3 Organic Liquids Distribution NESHAP (ptnonipm)

Packets:

Control_2022_2026_Organic_Liquids_Distribution_NESHAP_2022vlplatform_02oct2024_vl
Control_2022_203X_Organic_Liquids_Distribution_NESHAP_2022vlplatform_02oct2024_nf_v3

The Organic Liquids Distribution National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) is
an EPA rule to reduce emissions of toxic air pollutants from facilities that distribute organic liquids other
than gasoline. Affected facilities were listed in Appendix A of the Review of the RACT/BACT/LAER
Clearinghouse Database for the Organic Liquids Distribution Source Category memo found in the
regulatory docket. Facility information was pulled from EIS to check control information. If no VOC
controls existed at a facility, an 8% VOC emissions reduction was applied. Table 4-37 summarizes the
impact of the organic liquids distribution NESHAP on VOC emissions in the ptnonipm sector.

Table 4-37. Summary of Organic Liquids Distribution NESHAP controls on ptnonipm emissions

Year

Pollutant

2022hc (tons)

Emissions Change
(tons)

% change

2026

VOC

732,606

-2,244

-0.3%

4.2.4.4 Natural Gas Turbines NOx NSPS (ptnonipm, pt_oilgas)

Packets:

Control_2022_2026_NG_Turbines_NSPS_ptnonipm_2022vlplatform_30sep2024_v0

Control_2022_2026_NG_Turbines_pt_oilgas_2022vlplatform_05sep2024_v0

Control_2022_2026_NG_Turbines_pt_oilgas_2022vlplatform_KSupdate_16oct2024_v0

For ptnonipm, the Natural Gas Turbines NSPS packet was reused from the 2016v2 platform because the
last finalized regulation was dated March 20, 2009. For pt_oilgas, packets are based on updated growth
information for that sector from state-historical production data and the AEO2023 production forecast
database. The new growth factors were to calculate the new control efficiencies for 2026. The control
efficiency calculation methodology did not change from the 2016v3 modeling platform.

Natural Gas Turbines NSPS controls were generated based on examination of emission limits for
stationary combustion turbines that are not in the power sector. In 2006, the EPA promulgated
standards of performance for new stationary combustion turbines in 40 CFR part 60, subpart KKKK. The
standards reflect changes in NOx emission control technologies and turbine design since standards for

204


-------
these units were originally promulgated in 40 CFR part 60, subpart GG. The 2006 NSPSs affecting NOx
and SO2 were established at levels that bring the emission limits up-to-date with the performance of
current combustion turbines. Stationary combustion turbines were also regulated by the NOx State
Implementation Plan (SIP) Call, which required affected gas turbines to reduce their NOx emissions by 60
percent. Table 4-38 compares the federal 2006 NSPS NOx emission limits for new stationary combustion
turbines with the NOx Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) regulations in selected states
within the NOx SIP Call region. More information on the NOx SIP call is available at
https://www.epa.gov/power-sector/final-update-nox-sip-call-regulations (84 FR 8422). The state NOx
RACT regulations summary (Pechan, 2001) is from a year 2001 analysis, so some states may have
updated their rules since that time.

Table 4-38. Stationary gas turbines NSPS analysis and RACT regulations in selected states

Firing Natural Gas limits:

<50 MMBTU/hr

50-850
MMBTU/hr

>850
MMBTU/hr



Federal NSPS

100

25

15

Ppm

State

5-100
MMBTU/hr

100-250
MMBTU/hr

>250
MMBTU/hr



Connecticut

225

75

75

Ppm

Delaware

42

42

42

Ppm

Massachusetts

65*

65

65

Ppm

New Jersey

50*

50

50

Ppm

New York

50

50

50

Ppm

New Hampshire

55

55

55

ppm

* Only applies to 25-100 MMBTU/hr

The above state RACT table is from a 2001 analysis. Note that the current New York State regulations
use the same emission limits. The resulting new source NOx ratio (Fn) for NOx SIP call state and
California = 0.595 or 40.5% control (as computed by dividing 25 by 42). For other states Fn = 0.238 or
76.2% control (as computed by dividing 25 by 105).

For control factor development, the existing source emission ratio was set to 1.0 for combustion
turbines. The new source emission ratio for the NOx SIP Call states and California is the ratio of state
NOx emission limit to the Federal NSPS. A complicating factor in the above is the lack of size information
in the stationary source SCCs. Plus, the size classifications in the NSPS do not match the size
differentiation used in state air emission regulations. We accepted a simplifying assumption that most
industrial applications of combustion turbines are in the 100-250 MMBtu/hr size range and computed
the new source emission rates as the NSPS emission limit for 50-850 MMBtu/hr units divided by the
state emission limits. We used a conservative new source emission ratio by using the lowest state
emission limit of 42 ppmv (Delaware). This yields a new source emission ratio of 25/42, or 0.595 (40.5
percent reduction) for states with existing combustion turbine emission limits. States without existing
turbine NOx limits would have a lower new source emission ratio: the uncontrolled emission rate (105
ppmv via AP-42) divided into 25 ppmv = 0.238 (76.2 percent reduction). This control was then plugged
into Equation 4-2 as a function of the year-specific projection factor. The Natural Gas Turbines control
packet for pt_oilgas also includes additional controls for the EPNG Williams facility in Arizona, in order to
reduce the post-control facility total of 584.77 tons/yr NOx.

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Table 4-39 shows the reduction in NOx emissions after the application of the Natural Gas Turbines NSPS
CONTROL. Table 4-40 and Table 4-41 list the point source SCCs for which Natural Gas Turbines NSPS
controls were applied in ptnonipm and pt_oilgas, respectively.

Table 4-39. Emissions reductions due to the Natural Gas Turbines NSPS

Sector

Year

Pollutant

2022hc (tons)

Emissions
change (tons)

%

change

pt_°ilgas

2026

NOX

365,805

-7,531

-2.1%

ptnonipm

2026

NOX

780,504

-846

-0.1%

Table 4-40. SCCs in ptnonipm for which Natural Gas Turbines NSPS controls were applied

see

SCC Description

20200201

Internal Combustion Engines

Industrial; Natural Gas; Turbine

20200203

Internal Combustion Engines

Industrial; Natural Gas; Turbine: Cogeneration

20200209

Internal Combustion Engines

Industrial; Natural Gas; Turbine: Exhaust

20200701

Internal Combustion Engines

Industrial; Process Gas; Turbine

20200714

Internal Combustion Engines

Industrial; Process Gas; Turbine: Exhaust

20300203

Internal Combustion Engines

Commercial/Institutional; Natural Gas; Turbine: Cogeneration

Table 4-41. SCCs in pt_oilgas for which Natural Gas Turbines NSPS controls were applied

see

SCC description

20100201

Internal Combustion Engines;Electric Generation;Natural Gas;Turbine

20100209

Internal Combustion Engines;Electric Generation;Natural Gas;Turbine: Exhaust

20200201

Internal Combustion Engines;lndustrial;Natural Gas;Turbine

20200203

Internal Combustion Engines;lndustrial;Natural Gas;Turbine: Cogeneration

20200209

Internal Combustion Engines;lndustrial;Natural Gas;Turbine: Exhaust

20300202

Internal Combustion Engines;Commercial/lnstitutional;Natural Gas;Turbine

20300203

Internal Combustion Engines;Commercial/lnstitutional;Natural Gas;Turbine: Cogeneration

20300209

Internal Combustion Engines;Commercial/lnstitutional;Natural Gas;Turbine: Exhaust

4.2.4.5 Process Heaters NOx NSPS (ptnonipm, pt_oilgas)

Packets:

Control_2022_2026_Process_Heaters_NSPS_ptnonipm_2022vlplatform_30sep2024_v0

Control_2022_2026_Process_Heaters_pt_oilgas_2022vlplatform_06sep2024_v0

Control_2022_2026_Process_Heaters_pt_oilgas_2022vlplatform_KSupdate_16oct2024_v0

For ptnonipm, the packet was reused from the 2016v2 platform. For pt_oilgas, the packets were newly
developed for 2022v2 based on updated information including the AEO2023 forecast oil and gas
production.

Process heaters are used throughout refineries and chemical plants to raise the temperature of feed
materials to meet reaction or distillation requirements. Fuels are typically residual oil, distillate oil,
refinery gas, or natural gas. In some sense, process heaters can be considered as emission control
devices because they can be used to control process streams by recovering the fuel value while

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destroying the VOC. The criteria pollutants of most concern for process heaters are NOx and SO2. In
2022, it is assumed that process heaters have not been subject to regional control programs like the NOx
SIP Call, so most of the emission controls put in-place at refineries and chemical plants have resulted
from RACT regulations that were implemented as part of SIPs to achieve ozone NAAQS in specific areas,
and refinery consent decrees. The boiler/process heater NSPS established NOx emission limits for new
and modified process heaters. These emission limits are displayed in Table 4-42.

Table 4-42. Process Heaters NSPS analysis emission rates used to estimate controls

NOx emission rate Existing PPMV (=Fe)

Natural Draft
(fraction)

Forced Draft
(fraction)

Average

80

0.4

0



100

0.4

0.5



150

0.15

0.35



200

0.05

0.1



240

0

0.05



Cumulative, weighted (=Fe)

104.5

134.5

119.5

NSPS Standard

40

60



New Source NOx ratio (=Fn)

0.383

0.446

0.414

NSPS Control (%)

61.7

55.4

58.6

For computations, the existing source emission ratio (Fe) was set to 1.0. The computed (average) NOx
emission factor ratio used for new sources (Fn) is 0.41 (59 percent control). The retirement rate is the
inverse of the expected unit lifetime. There is limited information in the literature about process heater
lifetimes. This information was reviewed at the time that the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP)
developed its initial regional haze program emission projections, and energy technology models used a
20-year lifetime for most refinery equipment. However, it was noted that in practice, heaters would
probably have a lifetime that was on the order of 50 percent above that estimate. Therefore, a 30-year
lifetime was used to estimate the effects of process heater growth and retirement. This yields a 3.3
percent retirement rate. This control was then plugged into Equation 4-2 as a function of the year-
specific projection factor.

The impact on emissions from applying the process heaters NSPS is shown in Table 4-43. Table 4-44 and
Table 4-45 list the point source SCCs for which the Process Heaters NSPS controls were applied in the
ptnonipm and pt_oilgas sectors, respectively.

Table 4-43. Emissions reductions due to the application of the Process Heaters NSPS

Sector

Year

Pollutant

2022hc
(tons)

Emissions
change (tons)

%

change

pt_°ilgas

2026

NOX

365,805

-1,398

-0.4%

ptnonipm

2026

NOX

780,504

-3,888

-0.5%

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Table 4-44. SCCs in ptnonipm for which Process Heaters NSPS controls were applied

see

SCC Description*

30190003

IP;Chemical Manufacturing;Fuel Fired Equipment;Process Heater: Natural Gas

30190004

IP;Chemical Manufacturing;Fuel Fired Equipment;Process Heater: Process Gas

30590002

IP;Mineral Products;Fuel Fired Equipment;Residual Oil: Process Heaters

30590003

IP;Mineral Products;Fuel Fired Equipment;Natural Gas: Process Heaters

30600103

IP;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Oil

30600104

IP;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Gas

30600105

IP;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Natural Gas

30600106

IP;Petroleum Industry;Process Heaters;Process Gas

30600107

IP;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG)

30600199

IP;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Other Not Elsewhere Classified

30990003

IP;Fabricated Metal Products;Fuel Fired Equipment;Natural Gas: Process Heaters

31000401

IP;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Distillate Oil (No. 2)

31000403

IP;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Crude Oil

31000404

IP;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Natural Gas

31000405

IP;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Process Gas

31000406

IP;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Propane/Butane

31000414

IP;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Natural Gas: Steam Generators

31000415

IP;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Process Gas: Steam Generators

39900501

IP;Miscellaneous Manufacturing lndustries;Process Heater/Furnace;Distillate Oil

39900601

IP;Miscellaneous Manufacturing lndustries;Process Heater/Furnace;Natural Gas



IP;Miscellaneous Manufacturing lndustries;Miscellaneous Manufacturing

39990003

lndustries;Natural Gas: Process Heaters

* IP = Industrial Processes

Table 4-45. SCCs in pt_oilgas for which Process Heaters NSPS controls were applied

SCC

SCC Description

30190001

Industrial Processes;Chemical Manufacturing;Fuel Fired Equipment;Process Heater: Distillate Oil (No.
2)

30190003

Industrial Processes;Chemical Manufacturing;Fuel Fired Equipment;Process Heater: Natural Gas

30190004

Industrial Processes;Chemical Manufacturing;Fuel Fired Equipment;Process Heater: Process Gas

30290003

Industrial Processes;Food and Agriculture;Fuel Fired Equipment;Natural Gas: Process Heaters

30390003

Industrial Processes;Primary Metal Production;Fuel Fired Equipment;Natural Gas: Process Heaters

30590003

Industrial Processes;Mineral Products;Fuel Fired Equipment;Natural Gas: Process Heaters

30600103

Industrial Processes;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Oil

30600104

Industrial Processes;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Gas

30600105

Industrial Processes;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Natural Gas

30600106

Industrial Processes;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Process Gas

30600107

Industrial Processes;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG)

30600199

Industrial Processes;Petroleum lndustry;Process Heaters;Other Not Elsewhere Classified

30990003

Industrial Processes;Fabricated Metal Products;Fuel Fired Equipment;Natural Gas: Process Heaters

31000401

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Distillate Oil (No. 2)

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see

SCC Description

31000402

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Residual Oil

31000403

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Crude Oil

31000404

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Natural Gas

31000405

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Process Gas

31000406

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Propane/Butane

31000411

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Distillate Oil (No. 2): Steam Generators

31000414

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Natural Gas: Steam Generators

31000415

Industrial Processes;Oil and Gas Production;Process Heaters;Process Gas: Steam Generators

31390001

Industrial Processes;Electrical Equipment;Process Heaters;Distillate Oil (No. 2)

31390003

Industrial Processes;Electrical Equipment;Process Heaters;Natural Gas

39900601

Industrial Processes;Miscellaneous Manufacturing lndustries;Process Heater/Furnace;Natural Gas

39900701

Industrial Processes;Miscellaneous Manufacturing lndustries;Process Heater/Furnace;Process Gas

39990003

Industrial Processes;Miscellaneous Manufacturing lndustries;Miscellaneous Manufacturing
lndustries;Natural Gas: Process Heaters

4.2.4.6 State-specific controls (nonpt, np_solvents, ptnonipm)

Packets:

Control_2022_20XX_2022vl_point_nonpoint_SLT_controls_07oct2024_vl

A few states submitted state-specific controls for the nonpt, np_solvents, and ptnonipm sectors. For
nonpt sectors, Utah and Delaware both submitted controls that were applied to their state emissions for
the years 2026. Table 4-46 shows which SCCs and pollutants in nonpt these controls were applied. Table
4-47 shows the impacts of the controls on the three sectors.

Table 4-46. SCCs in nonpt, np_solvents, and ptnonipm for which state-specific controls were applied

State

Pollutant

SCC

SCC Description

Utah

NOX

2102006000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion;lndustrial;Natural Gas;Total:
Boilers and IC Engines

Utah

NOX

2103006000

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion;Commercial/lnstitutional;Natural
Gas;Total: Boilers and IC Engines

Delaware

VOC

2501060053

Storage and Transport;Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage;Gasoline Service Stations;Stage 1: Bal

Delaware

VOC

2501060201

Storage and Transport;Petroleum and Petroleum Product
Storage;Gasoline Service Stations;Underground

Delaware

Many

Many

Delaware submitted population projections for all counties within
their State and requested all relevant SCC to use this provided data in
making emissions projections.

New
Jersey

Many

Many

New Jersey submitted population projections for all counties within
their State and requested all relevant SCC to use this provided data in
making emissions projections.

For ptnonipm, several states submitted emission reductions and controls due to fuel switching, consent
decrees, or state or local rules that would reduce emissions in the future. Iowa submitted NOx and SO2

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reductions for Iowa State University (EIS Facility ID: 18936211) due to a fuel switch from coal to natural
gas that occurred in 2023. Iowa reduced SO2 at ADM - Des Moines Soybean facility (EIS Facility ID:
3163611) due to an Iowa State consent order and Polk County local program that required a coal fired
boiler to be decommissioned in 2023 and replaced with a natural gas boiler. In Washington State,
Cardinal FG Company Winlock (EIS Facility ID: 1262611) installed a silicon controlled rectifier (SCR) on its
glass furnace in 2024, reducing NOx emissions. In Texas, the Streetman Lightweight Agregate Plant (EIS
Facility ID: 4946511) installed SO2 controls in late 2022.

Table 4-47. Summary of SLT-provided controls on 2022 emissions

Sector

Year

Pollutant

2022hc (tons)

Emissions change
(tons)

% change

nonpt

2026

NOX

741,248

-240

-0.03%

nonpt

2026

VOC

949,760

-84

-0.01%

np_solvents

2026

VOC

2,634,832

-34

-0.001%

ptnonipm

2026

NOX

780,504

-771

-0.10%

ptnonipm

2026

SO 2

438,306

-2,864

-0.65%

4.3 Sectors with Projections Computed Outside of CoST

Projections for sectors not calculated using CoST are discussed in this section.

4.3.1 Nonroad Mobile Equipment Sources (nonroad)

Outside of California, the MOVES4 model was run for 2026. The fuels used are specific to the analytic
year, but the meteorological data represented the year 2022. The analytic year nonroad emissions
include all nonroad control programs finalized as of the date of the MOVES4 release.

The resulting analytic year inventories were processed into the format needed by SMOKE in the same
way as the base year emissions.

From the data review: North Carolina commented that growth relative to 2022 of industrial SCCs was
too aggressive, and suggested we cap growth of nonroad industrial emissions in NC as follows:

2026 = 1.096

We adjusted the MOVES outputs so that growth of NC industrial never exceeds the above limits,
resulting in a notable decrease in emissions. For example, if 2026/2022 = 1.2, then we reduced the 2026
emissions by a factor of 0.9133 (1.096 / 1.2) so that 2026/2022 = 1.096. If the existing growth was under
the cap, then no change was made. When doing this, we preserved VOC and PM speciation, such that
growth of a particular species, VOC HAP, or NONHAPTOG or PM2.5 component may exceed the cap, but
growth of overall VOC or PM2.5 will not.

In California, California Air Resources Board (CARB) provided inventories were used for 2026.

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4.3.2 Onroad Mobile Sources (onroad)

For 2022vl, MOVES4 was run to obtain onroad emission factors that account for the impact of on-the-
books rules that are implemented into MOVES4. These include regulations such as:

•	Revised 2023 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards, 86
FR 74434 (December 30, 2021);

•	Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Final Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 (March
2020);

•	Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Engines and Vehicles - Phase 2 (October 2016);

•	Tier 3 Vehicle Emission and Fuel Standards Program (March 2014)
(https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-control-air-
pollution-motor-vehicles-tier-3);

•	2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel
Economy Standards (October 2012);

•	Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Engines and Vehicles (September 2011);

•	Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives: Modifications to Renewable Fuel Standard Program
(RFS2) (December 2010); and

•	Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy
Standards Final Rule for Model-Year 2012-2016 (May 2010).

State-level adjustment factors were developed to account for California and other Section 177 states
that have adopted California's Advanced Clean Trucks regulation. This regulation requires greater sales
of zero-emission heavy-duty trucks than EPA's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty
Vehicles—Phase 3 rule, especially prior to 2030. Adjustment factors by calendar year, state, pollutant,
and SCC are calculated as the ratio of MOVES5 output to MOVES4 output.

Adjustment factors for the year 2022 were developed for states that have decommissioned Stage II
refueling programs, where their decommissioning is accounted for in MOVES5 but not in MOVES4.

Local inspection and maintenance (l/M) and other onroad mobile programs are included such as:
California LEVIN, the National Low Emissions Vehicle (LEV) and Ozone Transport Commission (OTC); LEV
regulations, local fuel programs, and Stage II refueling control programs. Note that MOVES3 emission
rates for model years 2017 and beyond are equivalent to CA LEVIN rates for NOx and VOC. Therefore, it
was not necessary to update the rates used for states that have adopted the rules in 2020 or later years.
The most recent California rules passed after 2020 are not reflected in this platform. Onroad emissions
in California were based on emissions provided by CARB for 2026. In a similar fashion to the adjustments
applied in other states to reflect rules not included in MOVES4, adjustment factors were also developed
and applied to California emissions to estimate the impact of the federal rules not reflected in CARB's
EMFAC2017 model. No attempt was made to account for recent California regulations other than
Advanced Clean Trucks.

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VMT data were projected from 2022 to 2026 using projection factors based on AEO2023 projections and
applied nationally by fuel type and broad vehicle type (light duty, medium duty for buses and single unit
trucks, and heavy duty for combination trucks). Diesel light duty cars were held flat in projections, but
diesel light duty trucks were projected using the AEO. Light duty VMT projections also incorporated a
county-level adjustment based on projected human population trends, so that counties expected to
grow more than the national average in population receive a corresponding increase in VMT for those
counties, and vice versa. The AEO2023-based VMT projection factors are shown in Table 4-48. Four
states (NJ, NY, NC, and Wl) provided VMT for each analytic year. Massachusetts gave us VMT for 2026 as
well, but it was not in time to be incorporated into the draft version of the emissions. Thus since the
VMT they gave us was higher than that used in the draft version, there are increases in onroad emissions
in the final version of the 2026 emissions.

Table 4-48. Projection factors for VMT by Fuel and Vehicle Class



2022-to-2026

Gas light duty

1.036

Gas medium duty

1.108

Gas heavy duty

1.103

Diesel light duty cars

1.000

Diesel light duty trucks

1.252

Diesel medium duty

1.008

Diesel heavy duty

1.018

CNG medium duty

1.073

CNG heavy duty

1.080

E-85 light duty

0.900

Electric light duty

3.339

In addition, a small, negligible amount of VMT was created for CNG combination long haul trucks, and
for all electric heavy duty vehicle types, for the analytic years. These fuel and source type combinations
are newly supported in MOVES4, and activity for these SCCs was created to support future
considerations. For the moment, activity for these new MOVES4 SCCs is very small and does not impact
the results.

Vehicle population is computed as: analytic year VPOP = base year VPOP * (analytic year VMT / base
year VMT) by county and SCC6 (fuel + vehicle type). Wisconsin provided VPOP for each analytic year.

Vehicle starts for analytic years are computed as:

analytic year starts = base year starts * (analytic year VPOP / base year VPOP).

Long haul hoteling hours are computed at the county level using the formula:

analytic year hoteling = base year hoteling * (analytic year VMT / base year VMT)

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where only the VMT from combination long haul trucks on restricted roads are considered. Where
hoteling exists in counties with zero combo-long-haul-restricted-road VMT, hoteling from the base year
was projected using the national diesel heavy duty projection factors for VMT from AEO2023. Year-
specific APU fractions were used to split county-level hoteling to individual SCCs as follows: 17.0% for
2026.

On-network idling hours (ONI) activity data were calculated based on VMT. For each representative
county, the ratio of ONI hours to onroad VMT (on all road types) was calculated using the MOVES ONI
Tool by source type, fuel type, and month. These ratios were then multiplied by each county's total VMT
(aggregated by source type, fuel type, and month) to get hours of ONI activity.

In comments received DE, DC, LA, NJ, and WA were noted to have unrealistic increases in refueling
emissions between the base and analytic years. OTAQ-provided adjustment factors for refueling were
originally applied to 2026. Future years then reflected the elimination of Stage II controls in those five
states. This resulted in an artificial increase in refueling emissions in the five states in analytic years
versus 2022hc (in which the Stage II updates were not accounted for). In response to the state
comments, we took away adjustment factors to refueling in those five states.

4.3.3 Sources Outside of the United States (canada_onroad,
mexico_onroad, canmex_point, canmex_ag, canada_og2D, ptfire_othna,
canmex_area, canada_afdust, canada_ptdust)

This section discusses the projection of emissions from Canada and Mexico. Information about the base
year inventory used for these projections or the naming conventions can be found in Section 2.7. The
Canada projections for 2026 are based on ECCC-provided inventories, while most Mexico emissions are
not projected to 2026 from the base year. Fire emissions in Canada and Mexico in the ptfire_othna
sector were not projected.

4.3.3.1	Canadian fugitive dust sources (canada_afdust, canada_ptdust)

For Canadian area and point source dust sectors, emissions were provided by ECCC for 2026 and follow a
methodology consistent with their 2022 inventory. As with the base year, the analytic year dust
emissions are pre-adjusted, so analytic year dust follows the same emissions processing methodology as
the base year with respect to the transportable fraction and meteorological adjustments.

4.3.3.2	Point Sources in Canada and Mexico (canmex_point,
canada_og2D)

Canadian point source inventories were provided by ECCC for 2026 and follow a methodology consistent
with their 2022 inventory.

Mexico point source inventories from 2022 were held flat through 2026.

4.3.3.3	Nonpoint sources in Canada and Mexico (canmex_area,
canmex_ag)

Canadian area source inventories, including nonpoint, nonroad, and agricultural sources, were provided
by ECCC for 2026 and follow a methodology consistent with their 2022 inventory.

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Mexico area source inventories from 2022 were held flat to 2026.

4.3.3.4 Onroad sources in Canada and Mexico (canada_onroad,
canada_onroad)

For Canadian mobile onroad sources, ECCC provided the year 2026 emissions.

For Mexican mobile onroad sources, monthly onroad mobile inventories for 2026 were developed at
municipio resolution based on an interpolation of 2023 and 2027 runs of MOVES-Mexico done for the
2016 platform.

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5 Emission Summaries

Table 5-1 and Table 5-2 summarize base year emissions by sector for CAPs and key HAPs for the year
2022 in this platform. Similarly, Table 5-3 and Table 5-4 show emissions for the year 2026. These
summaries are provided at the national level by sector for the contiguous U.S. and for the portions of
Canada and Mexico inside the larger 12km domain (12US1) discussed in Section 3.1. Note that totals for
the 12US2 domain are not available here, but the sum of the U.S. sectors would be essentially the same
and only the Canadian and Mexican emissions would change according to the extent of the grids to the
north and south of the continental United States. The afdust sector emissions here represent the
emissions after application of both the land use (transport fraction) and meteorological adjustments;
therefore, this sector is called "afdust_adj" in these summaries. The onroad sector totals are post-
SMOKE-MOVES totals, representing air quality model-ready emission totals, and include CARB emissions
for California. The cmv sectors include U.S. emissions within state waters only; these extend to roughly
3-5 miles offshore and include CMV emissions at U.S. ports. "Offshore" represents CMV emissions that
are outside of U.S. state waters. Canadian CMV emissions are included in the other sector. The total of
all US sectors is listed as "Con U.S. Total."

State totals and other summaries are available in the reports area on the FTP site for the 2022 platform
(https://gaftp.epa.gov/Air/emismod/2022/vl).

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Table 5-1. National by-sector CAP emissions for the 2022 platform, year 2022, 12US1 grid (tons/yr)

Sector

CO

NH3

NOX

PM10

PM2_5

S02

voc

afdust_adj







6,146,958

855,377





Airports

369,923

0

116,884

9,098

8,077

11,956

43,850

cmv_clc2

20,296

70

137,145

3,748

3,632

626

5,265

cmv_c3

10,207

32

84,352

1,833

1,686

4,141

4,676

Fertilizer



1,671,402











Livestock



2,590,376









207,230

Nonpt

802,522

69,110

721,734

478,209

411,444

74,590

933,778

Nonroad

11,095,444

2,013

773,485

75,879

71,154

921

923,704

nP_oilgas

700,012

3,823

676,201

12,366

12,248

280,038

2,757,565

np_solvents

0

0

0

0

0

0

2,590,493

Onroad

13,332,341

185,022

2,066,044

189,078

70,302

8,749

982,106

Openburn

1,394,786

79,167

45,645

231,930

212,185

13,867

104,784

Ptegu

466,676

17,913

851,055

106,981

91,801

879,719

26,332

Ptagfire

873,964

9,946

37,243

119,877

75,028

12,029

128,359

ptfire-rx

7,653,954

67,401

129,063

1,260,341

1,117,863

77,351

1,567,213

ptfire-wild

6,856,611

70,503

70,961

1,440,745

938,357

68,088

1,850,700

Ptnonipm

1,204,525

60,957

768,611

345,152

224,138

434,482

730,824

pt_oilgas

180,921

9,324

327,107

13,442

12,774

32,115

209,689

Rail

96,147

303

456,604

11,803

11,448

341

18,789

Rwc

2,944,487

22,597

44,594

450,210

448,814

11,893

450,881

Beis

3,376,155



964,950







30,694,065

CONUS w/ beis

51,378,972

4,859,958

8,271,679

10,897,651

4,566,328

1,910,908

44,230,301

Canada ag



506,067



6,564

1,875



124,234

Canada oil and gas 2D



8









293,600

Canada afdust







975,005

183,021





Canada ptdust







3,980

510





Canada area

2,061,247

5,978

312,938

184,538

133,031

14,092

712,989

Canada onroad

1,715,237

7,135

357,211

25,404

13,469

955

120,229

Canada point

1,034,599

19,020

521,418

113,269

43,293

440,207

150,300

Canada fires

2,650,916

24,845

30,977

590,473

332,539

13,904

633,450

Canada cmv_clc2

3,193

10

20,631

545

529

66

726

Canada cmv_c3

8,394

22

66,152

1,255

1,155

2,625

4,082

Mexico ag



137,454



54,305

11,689





Mexico area

97,707

26,199

57,912

41,688

21,073

21,910

412,170

Mexico onroad

1,594,936

2,887

389,027

15,190

10,549

6,665

144,126

Mexico point

158,096

979

199,363

90,722

53,873

341,028

32,822

Mexico fires

297,069

4,862

13,226

43,610

34,575

2,574

62,461

Mexico cmv_clc2

199

1

1,296

35

34

7

50

Mexico cmv_c3

9,626

95

95,412

5,362

4,933

14,099

4,777

Offshore cmv_clc2

4,864

15

31,122

822

797

123

1,148

Offshore cmv_c3

52,623

313

470,598

17,673

16,259

44,675

25,782

Offshore pt_oilgas

28,551

5

34,660

422

416

321

31,406

216


-------
Table 5-2. National by-sector VOC HAP emissions for the 2022 platform, year 2022, 12US1 grid

(tons/yr)

Sector

Acetaldehyde

Benzene

Formaldehyde

Methanol

Naphthalene

Acrolein

1,3-
Butadiene

airports

1,559

614

4,448

651

470

928

660

cmv_clc2

22

11

97

0

10

10

5

cmv_c3

20

10

86

0

9

9

5

livestock

1,478

473

0

13,661

0





nonpt

9,460

3,357

5,357

14,606

451

9,460

336

nonroad

8,056

25,536

19,848

1,157

1,411

1,180

4,333

nP_oilgas

2,912

35,872

50,849

3,820

112

1,941

458

np_solvents

73

336

10

13,780

8,117





onroad

8,324

17,172

10,319

1,407

1,324

750

2,263

openburn

2,143

4,626

2,218

0

57

134

701

ptegu

14

883

8,253

189

4

202

2

ptagfire

10,074

9,493

7,502

0

0



988

ptfire-rx

65,156

21,017

126,604

89,682

18,170

25,708

16,273

ptfire-wild

54,041

15,732

97,891

99,573

18,453

16,382

8,331

ptnonipm

3,902

21,465

11,487

23,589

730

853

653

pt_oilgas

1,261

2,153

9,418

298

56

1,857

262

rail

1,471

423

4,190

0

51

301

35

rwc

51,243

13,303

35,899

0

6,945

1,949

3,615

beis

374,228



513,183

2,110,685







CONUS w/ beis

595,436

172,476

907,658

2,373,098

56,368

61,661

38,922

Can. ag

1,398

159

0

32,657

0





Can. oil & gas 2D

0

877

0

0

0





Can. Area

15,252

12,725

12,871

4,082

2,589





Can. Onroad

2,170

5,247

2,997

0

40





Can. Point

1,543

1,986

5,262

10,627

26





Can. Fires

22,127

5,988

44,383

49,869

7,330

6,739

3,566

Can. cmv_clc2

3

1

13

0

1

1

1

Can. cmv_c3

17

8

75

0

8

8

4

Mex. Area

3,085

1,742

2,539

2,666

469





Mex. Onroad

591

3,376

1,438

665

200

102

494

Mex. Point

65

1,208

2,587

519

11





Mex. Fires

3,406

892

3,772

1,386

168

0

0

Mex. cmv_clc2

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

Mex. cmv_c3

15

7

67

0

23

9

5

Off. cmv_clc2

5

2

21

0

2

2

1

Off. cmv_c3

97

47

423

0

80

48

26

Off. pt_oilgas

631

121

1,070

41

0

0

0

217


-------
Table 5-3. National by-sector CAP emissions for the 2022 platform, year 2026,12US1 grid (tons/yr)

Sector

CO

NH3

NOX

PM10

PM2_5

S02

voc

afdust_adj







6,203,842

866,327





Airports

403,009

0

135,130

9,619

8,554

13,768

47,811

cmv_clc2

20,967

72

141,595

3,872

3,752

662

5,428

cmv_c3

10,743

34

83,629

1,929

1,775

4,360

4,928

Fertilizer



1,671,402











Livestock



2,595,138









207,785

Nonpt

800,002

67,631

685,799

488,859

422,715

61,902

956,983

Nonroad

11,377,186

2,074

651,041

63,282

59,036

942

862,143

nP_oilgas

701,014

15

583,910

10,892

10,841

308,766

2,095,720

np_solvents

0

0

0

0

0

0

2,667,432

onroad

10,973,776

169,669

1,398,945

184,377

62,516

11,452

786,425

openburn

1,394,786

79,167

45,645

231,930

212,185

13,867

104,784

ptegu

411,310

32,477

665,673

102,988

89,934

603,941

27,277

ptagfire

873,964

9,946

37,243

119,877

75,028

12,029

128,359

ptfire-rx

7,653,954

67,401

129,063

1,260,341

1,117,863

77,351

1,567,213

ptfire-wild

6,856,611

70,503

70,961

1,440,745

938,357

68,088

1,850,700

ptnonipm

1,166,259

60,185

733,559

338,082

217,959

412,759

702,269

pt_oilgas

179,652

9,307

314,246

13,773

13,052

33,717

207,331

rail

95,644

302

454,085

11,744

11,391

339

18,694

rwc

2,944,487

22,597

44,594

450,210

448,814

11,893

450,881

beis

3,376,155



964,950







30,694,065

CONUS w/ beis

49,239,521

4,857,919

7,140,070

10,936,362

4,560,100

1,635,837

43,386,227

Canada ag



537,399



6,579

1,880



124,415

Canada oil and gas 2D



7









244,808

Canada afdust







1,065,831

197,478





Canada ptdust







4,392

561





Canada area

2,057,231

5,918

293,945

177,603

123,038

13,389

721,003

Canada onroad

1,775,762

7,169

344,288

26,593

13,354

1,203

119,545

Canada point

1,036,019

20,345

403,929

117,450

46,201

438,599

158,061

Canada fires

2,650,916

24,845

30,977

590,473

332,539

13,904

633,450

Canada cmv_clc2

3,193

10

20,631

545

529

66

726

Canada cmv_c3

8,394

22

66,152

1,255

1,155

2,625

4,082

Mexico ag



137,454



54,305

11,689





Mexico area

97,707

26,199

57,912

41,688

21,073

21,910

412,170

Mexico onroad

1,677,654

3,544

407,007

18,039

12,301

8,138

163,294

Mexico point

158,096

979

199,363

90,722

53,873

341,028

32,822

Mexico fires

297,069

4,862

13,226

43,610

34,575

2,574

62,461

Mexico cmv_clc2

199

1

1,296

35

34

7

50

Mexico cmv_c3

9,626

95

95,412

5,362

4,933

14,099

4,777

Offshore cmv_clc2

5,043

16

32,268

853

826

128

1,191

Offshore cmv_c3

54,783

320

471,623

18,061

16,616

45,527

26,892

Offshore pt_oilgas

28,543

5

34,654

422

416

321

31,396

218


-------
Table 5-4. National by-sector VOC HAP emissions for the 2022 platform, year 2026,12US1 grid

(tons/yr)

Sector

Acetaldehyde

Benzene

Formaldehyde

Methanol

Naphthalene

Acrolein

1,3-
Butadiene

airports

1,700

670

4,841

708

511

1,000

711

cmv_clc2

23

11

100

0

10

10

5

cmv_c3

21

10

90

0

9

0

0

livestock

1,514

481

0

13,711

0





nonpt

10,053

3,373

5,437

15,673

461

10,053

348

nonroad

6,753

24,622

16,374

1,064

1,281

888

4,261

nP_oilgas

2,747

29,342

47,162

3,993

100

2,057

487

np_solvents

75

334

11

14,074

8,428





onroad

5,971

12,726

6,532

1,162

857

473

1,570

openburn

2,143

4,626

2,218

0

57

134

701

ptegu

13

967

10,516

183

3





ptagfire

10,074

9,493

7,502

0

0



988

ptfire-rx

65,156

21,017

126,604

89,682

18,170

25,708

16,273

ptfire-wild

54,041

15,732

97,891

99,573

18,453

16,382

8,331

ptnonipm

3,681

21,168

11,201

21,828

694

821

615

pt_oilgas

1,388

2,197

9,779

300

58

1,922

269

rail

1,464

421

4,169

0

51

299

35

rwc

51,243

13,303

35,899

0

6,945

1,949

3,615

beis

374,228



513,183

2,110,685







CONUS w/ beis

592,287

160,490

899,508

2,372,636

56,089

61,695

38,209

Can. ag

1,400

160

0

32,704

0





Can. oil & gas 2D

0

727

0

0

0





Can. Area

13,737

12,419

11,796

4,302

2,426





Can. Onroad

2,124

5,207

2,931

0

40





Can. Point

1,555

1,971

5,336

11,488

33





Can. Fires

22,127

5,988

44,383

49,869

7,330

6,739

3,566

Can. cmv_clc2

3

1

13

0

1

1

1

Can. cmv_c3

17

8

75

0

8

8

4

Mex. Area

3,085

1,742

2,539

2,666

469





Mex. Onroad

646

3,502

1,612

720

213

111

493

Mex. Point

65

1,208

2,587

519

11





Mex. Fires

3,406

892

3,772

1,386

168

0

0

Mex. cmv_clc2

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

Mex. cmv_c3

15

7

67

0

23

9

5

Off. cmv_clc2

5

2

22

0

2

2

1

Off. cmv_c3

102

49

443

0

83

50

27

Off. pt_oilgas

631

121

1,070

41

0

0

0

219


-------
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United States	Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards	Publication No. EPA-454/B-25-001

Environmental Protection	Air Quality Assessment Division	May 2025

Agency	Research Triangle Park, NC

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